[DYNASTY] 2009 Top 12 Rookie Rankings (1 Viewer)

[EBF]

I had some free time today and was looking at some prospects, so I thought I'd post a very early top 12 list for the 2009 class. It also seemed like a good time of the year to get started on this stuff since the regular season is winding down for a lot of dynasty teams. Without further ado...

Tier One

1. WR Michael Crabtree **, Texas Tech

Positives: Strong, quick, and athletic. Has big hands and long arms. Natural hands catcher who routinely makes the difficult grab. Great runner after the catch with shifty moves and good power. Big time production.

Negatives: Not great speed. Won't outrun many NFL defensive backs and could struggle to gain separation.

Overall: Crabtree is a top flight possession WR who should fit in well as an Anquan Boldin type at the next level. He won't burn many pro corners deep, but he'll be a major weapon underneath and he'll make positive plays after the catch.

NFL Comparison: Anquan Boldin, Terrell Owens

Highlights: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YHr6piJHsxQ

2. RB Knowshon Moreno **, Georgia

Positives: Quick feet, good burst, and good power. Gets to top speed in a hurry and is a tenacious competitor. Consistently productive against tough competition. Sturdy frame with a low center of gravity.

Negatives: Might be a little undersized and seeks contact too often, which results in a lot of big collisions. Not a home run hitter at the next level.

Overall: Moreno looks like a safe bet to become a productive starter in the NFL. He might not be a major big play threat and he might struggle with injuries, but he looks like a very low bust risk overall.

NFL Comparison: Marshawn Lynch

Highlights: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ysnUXHV2N18

3. WR Jeremy Maclin **, Missouri

Positives: Good speed with a smooth stride. Quick. Athletic. Productive. Makes difficult catches.

Negatives: Not many. Won't overpower people and sometimes looks a little stiff changing directions.

Overall: Maclin is a nice vertical WR who could develop into a Chad Johnson type at the NFL level. I really like his overall game and I think he'll do well in a system that allows him to get upfield and run some deep routes.

NFL Comparison: Chad Johnson, Isaac Bruce

Highlights: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qSClAWcbZo

4. RB Shonn Greene *, Iowa

Positives: Great frame. Built low and strong. Runs on a swivel with fluid hips and quick feet for a big man. Very productive.

Negatives: Lacks elite speed and explosiveness. Limited involvement in the passing game.

Overall: Greene doesn't have the flashy upside of some of the other backs in this draft, but he's a low risk prospect whose game should translate very well to the NFL level. I look for him to become a 300+ carry back at the next level and an ideal RB2 for FF teams.

NFL Comparison: Michael Turner, Rudi Johnson

Highlights: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4KaN3ARrfiU

5. WR Percy Harvin *, Florida

Positives: Explosive athlete. Fluid runner. Dangerous after the catch thanks to his power, speed, and quickness. Despite his reputation as a RB/WR tweener, he demonstrates a lot of innate receiving skills. Hands catcher.

Negatives: Slightly short and doesn't have the track record of elite production as a WR.

Overall: Harvin is yet another fantastic WR prospect who has all the physical tools and football skills needed to become a solid starter in the NFL.

NFL Comparison: Santana Moss

Highlights: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A34up1pGP84

6. RB Chris Wells *, Ohio State

Positives: Has very good feet for a big man. Not Barry Sanders, but when he gets into the second level he can make people miss. Runs hard and has a burst. Great production at the college level.

Negatives: Has long, lanky legs and takes a lot of vicious hits. Runs a little upright.

Overall: Wells is the biggest enigma in this draft class. He shows flashes of greatness , but I think he's a much bigger boom-or-bust proposition than his reputation would indicate. He might ultimately become the best FF player from this class, but there's enough risk here for me to let someone else take that gamble.

NFL Comparison: Matt Forte

Highlights: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tx0Bxf4zmf8

7. WR Darrius Heyward-Bey *, Maryland

Positives: Has possibly the best deep speed in this class. Big frame. Athletic. Dangerous runner before and after the catch. Has a huge ceiling and could become a superstar in the NFL.

Negatives: A little bit of an enigma. Production hasn't matched his talent.

Overall: "DHB" has Pro Bowl potential, but there are other wideouts in this class who offer the same potential with seemingly less risk. He's been the victim of a weak college system that hasn't fully exploited his talents, which makes him harder to evaluate than most of the other receivers in this class.

NFL Comparison: Andre Johnson

Highlights: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6UhMOnhqGpc

8. QB Sam Bradford **, Oklahoma

Positives: Big passer with incredible production through his first two seasons. Has poise, accuracy, and confidence. Easily moves his offense down the field for scoring drives. Has plenty of arm strength. Decent athlete who can run a little bit.

Negatives: Plays for a great program with a talented supporting cast. Is he just a taller version of Jason White? Like any QB, there's a major bust risk. Will need to prove that he can read a defense and hit secondary targets.

Overall: Bradford is potentially the best QB prospect to enter the draft in years, but he's still a little raw and it's always hard to evaluate NCAA passers since the defenses they play against are pitiful compared with what they'll face in the NFL. Nevertheless, Bradford is an impressive player who could be worth a pick much earlier than this in leagues that place a high value on passers.

NFL Comparison: Peyton Manning

Highlights: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YzrlT5yBLWM

Tier Two

9. RB LeSean McCoy **, Pittsburgh

Positives: Elite quickness and short are burst. Has the best moves of any RB in this class. Productive player who does well despite being the focus of opposing defenses.

Negatives: Lanky frame with suspect power. Can he be a workhorse in the NFL or will he need to split carries? Had some character issues coming out of high school, but has stayed out of trouble at Pitt.

Overall: McCoy is a great football player who's difficult to project to the NFL level. I think he'll be effective, but I have some doubts about whether or not he has the overall game needed to shoulder a pro team's offense. If he goes in the first round to a team that wants to make him its starter, you can justify picking him several spots higher than this. But being blind of the situation, I'll put him here for now.

NFL Comparison: A lesser Marshall Faulk

Highlights: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PCCRM27wz6I

10. RB CJ Spiller *, Clemson

Positives: Blazing speed. Definitely the fastest RB in this class. All-American sprinter for Clemson's indoor track team. When he gets his stride, there aren't many people in the world who can catch him. Versatile talent on the football field who impacts as a KR, RB, and pass catcher. Has a very high career YPC average and is Clemson's career leader in plays of 50 yards or more.

Negatives: Built a little thin. Instincts are suspect. Has never been asked to carry a big workload. Stronger than you might think, but he's not a power runner or a guy who's going to run through a lot of tackles. Inconsistent runner who doesn't always play up to his talent level.

Overall: Spiller is an exciting playmaker who could be a nice weapon in the mold of Chris Johnson. He's not a traditional featured back, but if he lands in a friendly system with a coaching staff who's committed to getting him the ball then he could be a solid FF player. At worst should be a solid return man and a dangerous situational back.

NFL Comparison: Chris Johnson

Highlights: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QqnqJn_UQx8

11. WR Jarett Dillard, Rice

Positives: Prolific WR who holds a host of NCAA receiving records. Has 54 TD catches over the past three seasons, which is just sick production. Great leaper who effortlessly makes the circus catch in a crowd. Hands, hands, hands. Reportedly has a 45" vertical leap. High character prospect.

Negatives: A little undersized with a thin frame. Speed is a question mark. Some people think he runs a low 4.4 while others think he's more of a high 4.5 guy.

Overall: Dillard is probably the most underrated skill position player in the nation. Most internet pundits have him way down on their boards, but don't sleep on his skills. No one catches 60 TDs by accident. Dillard is a natural WR with underrated athleticism. Look for some smart NFL team to scoop him in the rounds 2-3 range to little fanfare, only to watch him become a very solid pro player.

NFL Comparison: slower, smaller Randy Moss

Highlights: http://www.ricefootball.net/08usmvideos0750.htm

12. WR Kenny Britt *, Rutgers

Positives: Powerful WR with good production and good run-after-the-catch skills. Athletic.

Negatives: Neither fast nor explosive. Really just a possession WR.

Overall: Nice possession WR who should develop into a starter at the NFL level. Flying under the radar, but has the potential to slip into the late first round of the NFL draft if he runs well in workouts.

NFL Comparison: Brandon Marshall, Vincent Jackson

Highlights: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zTgq5_q_MBE

* = one year of eligibility remaining

** = two years of eligibility remaining

Near Misses

QB Matthew Stafford, Georgia - As a general rule, I don't like to draft QBs in rookie drafts. They take a long time to develop, they have a higher bust risk than the other positions, and they have a lower upside. Stafford might be an early pick, but at this point I don't see anything here that would cause me to pass up one of the elite RBs or WRs.

RB DeMarco Murray, Oklahoma - Worth watching and could be in my top 10 3-4 months from now.

RB Charles Scott, LSU - Intriguing prospect, but probably isn't a future NFL starter.

RB Javon Ringer, Michigan State - IMO he simply doesn't have starter tools at the next level.

Comments

- Eight players in the first tier? Yep, that's not a typo. I happen to think that this is a pretty strong class (especially at WR). If you got a top 6-7 pick this year, consider yourself lucky. You're going to get a very good prospect. My only caveat is that this group is a little thin on bankable RB talent. Outside of Greene and Moreno, there's no one here that I'd be excited about drafting (even though some of the other guys have a nice upside).

- LeSean McCoy, CJ Spiller, and Sam Bradford are returning to school. That's what they say, but until it's official I'm assuming that they'll be in the draft. It's hard to turn down millions of dollars when the clock is ticking on your body. Bradford will probably be back in school, but I expect Spiller and McCoy to bail.

 

[offdee]

Great write up EBF, always appreciate your insight.

I was going to start a thread about this, but maybe this is as good a spot as any to ask.....Lets say that every one of these RB's on your list declares this year. Who are the underclassmen RB's that aren't eligible this year that will be the top guys for the 2010 or 2011 draft?

In year's past there were always some Frosh or Sophs that really stood out as future studs, but this year I'm having troubles coming up with even one guy. I'm sure most will say Joe McKnight (USC), but am starting to have my doubts about him being anything all that special.

 

[EBF]

Lets say that every one of these RB's on your list declares this year. Who are the underclassmen RB's that aren't eligible this year that will be the top guys for the 2010 or 2011 draft?

In year's past there were always some Frosh or Sophs that really stood out as future studs, but this year I'm having troubles coming up with even one guy. I'm sure most will say Joe McKnight (USC), but am starting to have my doubts about him being anything all that special.

Too early to say for sure regarding 2010. As usual, there will be some guys who step up and bloom late like Rashard Mendenhall, Larry Johnson, and Joseph Addai. None of them were on the first round radar until their final college season. You can bet that there are a handful of unknown backs who will do the same next year.As for McKnight, he's overhyped. I've seen him in person and on TV. He has a big national profile because he was a top recruit out of high school, but as a college player he's been a little hot-and-cold. He has his moments, but isn't consistent and hasn't looked anywhere near as good as Reggie Bush did. CJ Gable is playing better and Stafon Johnson is a better pro prospect. Johnson is a potential 2nd-4th round pick who could be a better NFL than college player. He doesn't have great speed, but has NFL size and is an efficient back with pretty good feet and instincts.

Probably the top RB on my 2010 board is Derrick Washington from Missouri. He's listed at 5'11" 215. He has 909 rushing yards for Mizzou at 6.4 YPC, but goes largely unnoticed by the media thanks to Maclin, Daniel, and Coffman.

Some pundits are high on Graig Cooper of Miami, but I'm not too familiar with him at this point.

Darren Evans is starting to emerge as a star at Virginia Tech. I'm familiar with him since I drafted him onto my NCAA dynasty team out of high school, but I don't know that he's really special enough to threaten the first round.

Caleb King will have a chance to step up at Georgia next year in Moreno's absence, but there's a talented crowd in that backfield and I'm not convinced he's even the best back on the roster.

Jahvid Best from Cal is a guy who could be on the brink of stardom. He was one of the top sprinters in the state when he was in high school and he's been an impact player for the Bears since last season. He definitely has the athleticism and the "it" factor to play on Sundays. Unfortunately, he's rail thin and he probably needs to pack on 10-20 pounds to be "the man" at the NFL level. He's already had a lot of injuries in college. Good player though. You can check him out here:

 

[Jeff Tefertiller]

For the 2010, what is the opinion on Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State?

 

[EBF]

For the 2010, what is the opinion on Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State?

Very high on him. Reminds me a lot of Reggie Wayne. He could be the top player in his class.

 

[belljr]

Looks like a very weak rookie crop this year.

 

[EBF]

Looks like a very weak rookie crop this year.

Actually, I think it's a pretty good class. The WRs are especially good. I'm not wild about the backs, but 2-3 of these guys will become solid pro starters.

 

[Frank Costanza's Lawyer]

 

[belljr]

Looks like a very weak rookie crop this year.

Actually, I think it's a pretty good class. The WRs are especially good. I'm not wild about the backs, but 2-3 of these guys will become solid pro starters.

This is probably true but I don't see anyone that I think "superstar". Crabtree probably has the best chance at that. Maybe it's just not as deep as past years.I mean some rookie drafts you were still getting ok rookies late in rounds 2/3 (dynasty drafts) - to me it seems like big drop off after 10 guys or so

 

[EBF]

Looks like a very weak rookie crop this year.

Actually, I think it's a pretty good class. The WRs are especially good. I'm not wild about the backs, but 2-3 of these guys will become solid pro starters.

This is probably true but I don't see anyone that I think "superstar". Crabtree probably has the best chance at that. Maybe it's just not as deep as passed.I mean some rookie drafts you were still getting ok rookies late in rounds 2/3 (dynasty drafts) - to me it seems like big drop off after 10 guys or so

The main thing to remember is that superstars often aren't touted as such. How many people thought Reggie Wayne, Chad Johnson, Brandon Marshall, Anquan Boldin, Greg Jennings, and Steve Smith would be superstars? There are good players in this group. There are some very promising players at the top of the draft and some 2nd-3rd round guys who have a chance to surprise ala MB3, Rudi, Boldin, and Gore.

 

[belljr]

Looks like a very weak rookie crop this year.

Actually, I think it's a pretty good class. The WRs are especially good. I'm not wild about the backs, but 2-3 of these guys will become solid pro starters.

This is probably true but I don't see anyone that I think "superstar". Crabtree probably has the best chance at that. Maybe it's just not as deep as passed.I mean some rookie drafts you were still getting ok rookies late in rounds 2/3 (dynasty drafts) - to me it seems like big drop off after 10 guys or so

The main thing to remember is that superstars often aren't touted as such. How many people thought Reggie Wayne, Chad Johnson, Brandon Marshall, Anquan Boldin, Greg Jennings, and Steve Smith would be superstars? There are good players in this group. There are some very promising players at the top of the draft and some 2nd-3rd round guys who have a chance to surprise ala MB3, Rudi, Boldin, and Gore.

Fair point and . I'm just bitter I traded my first in 09

 

[broncofan13000]

For the 2010, what is the opinion on Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State?

Bryant and Benn look like the class of the 2010 WR crop.

 

[lyon812]

 

[gheemony]

A WR at #1 is intriguing. I generally hate taking WRs early. I focus on RBs. The only time I seriously thought otherwise was Calvin Johnson. How does Crabtree compare to Calvin when he was coming out? What kind of hype will surround him? Is he a player that you can get at #3 or #4 after the top RBs are snapped up?

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Nice write-up but I'd probably put Maclin #1, Moreno 2, and Crabtree 3. Other than that I like the background and see a lot of correct analysis from what I know about the players (I know some more than others).

Jerk 26 is gonna freak you have his boy Stafford out of the top 12.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

I would compare Darrius Heyward-Bey to Joey Galloway and not Andre Johnson although he is taller than Galloway and has the potential to have a frame like Johnson's. But the pure speed and the acceleration reminds me of Joey Galloway and I hope they don't make him put on 15 pounds. He is one of those few guys that you watch in college who when he gets into the secondary you're sure he's gone and you're sure he can do it on the next level. He's gonna be a pretty good weapon for someone right away.

 

[EBF]

A WR at #1 is intriguing. I generally hate taking WRs early. I focus on RBs. The only time I seriously thought otherwise was Calvin Johnson. How does Crabtree compare to Calvin when he was coming out? What kind of hype will surround him? Is he a player that you can get at #3 or #4 after the top RBs are snapped up?

Keep in mind that these rankings are for PPR leagues. In PPR, I think WRs are actually more valuable than RBs. That's because there's A LOT of turnover at RB and it's actually easier to get immediate impact from the rookie draft from a RB than it is from a WR (so you can plug the hole in your roster faster). Aside from a few super elite guys like LT/Edge/Portis, there just aren't many RBs who give you elite sustained production over multiple seasons. A few years ago guys like Cadillac Williams, Shaun Alexander, Kevin Jones, Julius Jones, Ahman Green, and Deuce McAllister were considered franchise dynasty RBs. Now they're practically worthless. Meanwhile Terrell Owens, Randy Moss, Hines Ward, Laveranues Coles, Santana Moss, Steve Smith, and Andre Johnson just keep producing. So that definitely plays a big role in my thinking here. I happen to think that the WRs are simply better than the RBs this year. I think that the top 4 WRs are all potential WR1 types whereas I'm fairly lukewarm on this group of backs. As for Crabtree, I just think he's a very safe bet to become a solid pro player. There's a pretty good chance that one or more of the lesser hyped players in this class will ultimately have better careers, but with the 1.01 pick in a dynasty league I'm not looking to get fancy. I'm just looking for a player who has a good chance to develop into a stable contributor to a winning FF team. I think Crabtree has the best chance to do that of anyone in this draft. Is he better than Calvin? Probably not, but they're two different animals. Calvin is more of a downfield threat and jump ball receiver. Crabtree is more of a "move the chains" underneath type of WR. He isn't as fast and he isn't as flashy. In the right system he should still be a productive player. Think of him as a better version of Dwayne Bowe.Will he be a top 2 pick in most leagues? Really depends on the league format and on what happens in the NFL draft. Most FF owners overvalue RBs. If Wells and Moreno are early picks in the NFL draft, they'll probably go 1-2 in a lot of FF leagues.

 

[EBF]

Jerk 26 is gonna freak you have his boy Stafford out of the top 12.

Yea, I know.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Good call on Jarett Dillard also, this guy is a diamond in the rough. I'm not all that familiar with LeSean McCoy but I've read good things although I have no opinion on how he will be at the next level.

Couple of real youngin's at WR to keep an eye on in the coming years are Malcolm Williams of Texas and Julio Jones of Bama who are both true freshman and a guy I really like sophomore Detron Lewis of Texas Tech who will go to option 1A in the Red Raiders offense next year.

 

[EBF]

I would compare Darrius Heyward-Bey to Joey Galloway and not Andre Johnson although he is taller than Galloway and has the potential to have a frame like Johnson's. But the pure speed and the acceleration reminds me of Joey Galloway and I hope they don't make him put on 15 pounds. He is one of those few guys that you watch in college who when he gets into the secondary you're sure he's gone and you're sure he can do it on the next level. He's gonna be a pretty good weapon for someone right away.

He's a nice prospect. Galloway makes some sense, but DHB is bigger. This is really a nice group of wideouts coming out this year. The odds say 1-2 of these guys will bust, but I haven't been this enamored of a WR group since the Fitz/Roy/Reggie/Evans class. Crabtree, Maclin, Harvin, and DHB are all players that I'd feel comfortable using a first round rookie pick on in PPR. And then you have some nice prospects in the second tier who could be players.

 

[EBF]

Good call on Jarett Dillard also, this guy is a diamond in the rough.

Dillard is an animal. If he was on Ohio State or Florida, he'd be a household name.

Couple of real youngin's at WR to keep an eye on in the coming years are Malcolm Williams of Texas and Julio Jones of Bama who are both true freshman and a guy I really like sophomore Detron Lewis of Texas Tech who will go to option 1A in the Red Raiders offense next year.

There are a lot of good WRs coming down the pipeline. Arrelious Benn, Dez Bryant, DeAndre Brown, Julio Jones, and AJ Green. No shortage of potential impact receivers in the college ranks.

 

[awesomeness]

I know absolutely nothing about Jarret Dillard and have never seen im play, so could you explain a little bit how his style compares to Rany Moss?

Moss is 6'4, 210 lbs. Dillard is 5'11, 185.

 

[EBF]

I know absolutely nothing about Jarret Dillard and have never seen im play, so could you explain a little bit how his style compares to Rany Moss?

Moss is 6'4, 210 lbs. Dillard is 5'11, 185.

Dillard is like a mini-Moss with less speed. They have a similar body type and running style. This might sound strange, but just the way they move is similar. When I see Dillard, I'm reminded of Moss. They also have a similar playing style. Both guys excel at snatching the ball out of the air over defenders. Dillard is like Spider-Man. You throw the ball up in the air, and he's going to come down with it. The saying is that he's only 5'11", but he plays like he's 11'5". That's because he has pogo stick legs, long arms, and unreal hands.

And then there's the production. Dillard holds the NCAA career record for touchdown catches. In his last 36 football games, he has 54 (!) touchdown catches (and 3,485 receiving yards). He shares the NCAA record for most consecutive games in a season with a touchdown catch. Who does he share the record with? Randy Moss and Larry Fitzgerald.

For some reason most of the draft "experts" on the internet have dismissed him because he doesn't have ideal measurables and he doesn't play for Florida. But the kid can flat out play football. He has the type of coordination and hands that you just can't teach. And I'm of the opinion that his physical tools won't be a liability at the next level.

Unfortunately, there are currently no good Dillard highlight reels online, so if you want to watch him play you have to piece together some clips. Here are a few:

Typical Dillard TD catch at 0:22 - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UUqL0FkcgQc

Another JD TD - http://www.veoh.com/videos/v1160409q92jGKZB

I'm sorry, were you trying to cover me? - http://www.veoh.com/videos/v1583749fD223mHJ

First two videos on this page - http://www.ricefootball.net/08usmvideos0750.htm

Third and last videos on this page - http://www.ricefootball.net/08untvideos0530.htm

And finally, how about some photographic evidence?

http://www.fantasycollegeblitz.com/wp-cont...05/dillard1.jpg

 

[Chachi]

I'd like to see your list of top 12 in non-ppr, just a list, no explanations needed.

Huge props on having Shonn Greene so high, I am infatuated with him and thought I was the only one.

 

[EBF]

I'd like to see your list of top 12 in non-ppr, just a list, no explanations needed.

It would be the same order, but the RBs would be listed ahead of the WRs. Something like:1. Moreno2. Greene3. Wells4. McCoy5. Spiller6. Crabtree7. Maclin8. Harvin9. DHB10. Bradford11. Dillard12. BrittWRs are severely de-valued in most non-PPR leagues. I tend not to like those formats since I think they basically force you to make bad picks (by forcing you to reach for mediocre RBs).

 

[rockalum]

while i respect your opinion and see a slight shift in the thinking, i still think rookie RBs are more valuable than rookie WRs. its getting closer, though, because, clearly, more WR are coming in and excelling in their first year. the 'third-year' breakout WR may still be around, but guys like Dwayne Bowe, Calvin johnson, DeSean Jackson (and others I'm sure I'm missing) are stepping right in.

i think you've got to look at each player on an individual basis and you have to examine the situation they are drafted in.

appreciate all your effort, though.

 

[zamboni]

Nice synopsis.

Admittedly, I don't follow college too closely until nearer to the draft, but how many of these RBs project to be first rounders?

Especially when you considering that there may not be all that many NFL teams that will look for an RB that early.

 

[Uruk-Hai]

I would compare Darrius Heyward-Bey to Joey Galloway and not Andre Johnson although he is taller than Galloway and has the potential to have a frame like Johnson's. But the pure speed and the acceleration reminds me of Joey Galloway and I hope they don't make him put on 15 pounds. He is one of those few guys that you watch in college who when he gets into the secondary you're sure he's gone and you're sure he can do it on the next level. He's gonna be a pretty good weapon for someone right away.

He's a nice prospect. Galloway makes some sense, but DHB is bigger. This is really a nice group of wideouts coming out this year. The odds say 1-2 of these guys will bust, but I haven't been this enamored of a WR group since the Fitz/Roy/Reggie/Evans class. Crabtree, Maclin, Harvin, and DHB are all players that I'd feel comfortable using a first round rookie pick on in PPR. And then you have some nice prospects in the second tier who could be players.

I think DHB will be much better suited to the pro game than college. Of course, the MD QB play has been horrific that last few years so his numbers have been severely depressed. He's got just about everything you want - good burst, can get off the line, world-class top end speed, and good hands. He can catch the ball in traffic & can leap to get the ball (something he unfortuately had to do more than he should). My only concern with him may be his attitude. I don't want to overstate this because there's zero documented evidence that he's a bad guy or teammate. But I've seen him look very frustrated sometimes on the field (not that I blame him) & some of his quotes after bad games have been a little iffy. But again, there's no evidence of buttholeishness & my vague worry on this may not mean anything - could be he's just a great competitor.

 

[FUBAR]

I'd like to see your list of top 12 in non-ppr, just a list, no explanations needed.

It would be the same order, but the RBs would be listed ahead of the WRs. Something like:1. Moreno2. Greene3. Wells4. McCoy5. Spiller6. Crabtree7. Maclin8. Harvin9. DHB10. Bradford11. Dillard12. BrittWRs are severely de-valued in most non-PPR leagues. I tend not to like those formats since I think they basically force you to make bad picks (by forcing you to reach for mediocre RBs).

Don't be surprised if Davis is top 12 in the end. But for now, this list is fine - I disagree with Wells at 3 (he's probably my #1) and Crabtree, even in PPR should be higher, but solid list overall for now. I'd love to see a top 20 including IDPs, but I can't make a good list that deep myself and aside from the hyped USC/OSU LBs, I'm not sure where the IDPs rank right now.

 

[Crippler]

Since so many leagues are different, I thought I would get your thoughts on a 16 team league that starts 11 O players with lots of flex including 2 QB's which get 6 pts and 3 for picks. Basically 1 per 20 and .5 per reception with TE's getting 1 per 10. K also has some value as can start 2 and they get 4 points for 40 plus FB's and 5 for 50. So TD heavy in the end

I know if you did a mock of last year that Ryan would have the #1 pick(he went 6th) and Flacco would be the #2(he went 16th). Keller would be top 16 also.

We do our draft the day before the NFL draft for just round 1 so always interesting to read this stuff

My mock which could be based on need also.

1. Sam Bradford

2. Matthew Stafford

3. Chris Wells

4. Micheal Crabtree

5. Knowshown Moreno

6. Graham Harrell

7. Jeremy Macklin

8. Shonne Greene

9. Leshon McCoy

10. D H Bey

11. Percy Harvin

12. Jermaine Grisham

13. Sam Swank PK

14. DeMarco Murray

15. CJ Spiller

16. Kenny Britt

 

[coolnerd]

I'd like to see your list of top 12 in non-ppr, just a list, no explanations needed.

It would be the same order, but the RBs would be listed ahead of the WRs. Something like:1. Moreno2. Greene3. Wells4. McCoy5. Spiller6. Crabtree7. Maclin8. Harvin9. DHB10. Bradford11. Dillard12. BrittWRs are severely de-valued in most non-PPR leagues. I tend not to like those formats since I think they basically force you to make bad picks (by forcing you to reach for mediocre RBs).

Don't be surprised if Davis is top 12 in the end. But for now, this list is fine - I disagree with Wells at 3 (he's probably my #1) and Crabtree, even in PPR should be higher, but solid list overall for now. I'd love to see a top 20 including IDPs, but I can't make a good list that deep myself and aside from the hyped USC/OSU LBs, I'm not sure where the IDPs rank right now.

If that is James Davis, I would be surprised if he is drafted before round 4. If a remember he was given like 3rd round grade last year, and did not perform well at all in 2008. A guy to look for who is not being discussed much now in Doanld Brown of UConn.

 

[Team Legacy]

McCoy announced he was staying in school.

 

[Chachi]

I'd like to see your list of top 12 in non-ppr, just a list, no explanations needed.

It would be the same order, but the RBs would be listed ahead of the WRs. Something like:1. Moreno

2. Greene

3. Wells

4. McCoy

5. Spiller

6. Crabtree

7. Maclin

8. Harvin

9. DHB

10. Bradford

11. Dillard

12. Britt

WRs are severely de-valued in most non-PPR leagues. I tend not to like those formats since I think they basically force you to make bad picks (by forcing you to reach for mediocre RBs).

Don't be surprised if Davis is top 12 in the end. But for now, this list is fine - I disagree with Wells at 3 (he's probably my #1) and Crabtree, even in PPR should be higher, but solid list overall for now. I'd love to see a top 20 including IDPs, but I can't make a good list that deep myself and aside from the hyped USC/OSU LBs, I'm not sure where the IDPs rank right now.

If that is James Davis, I would be surprised if he is drafted before round 4. If a remember he was givin like 3rd round grade last year, and did perform well at all in 2008. A guy to look for who is not being discussed much now in Doanld Brown of UConn.

.Flip a coin if he meant James Davis or Nate Davis, odds are 50-50.

 

[Chachi]

McCoy announced he was staying in school.

This is well known and the OP commented on it in the very first post and I happen to agree with his comments, Money talks and yaknowwhat walks.

- LeSean McCoy, CJ Spiller, and Sam Bradford are returning to school. That's what they say, but until it's official I'm assuming that they'll be in the draft. It's hard to turn down millions of dollars when the clock is ticking on your body. Bradford will probably be back in school, but I expect Spiller and McCoy to bail.

 

[teamroc]

I'd wager Micheal Crabtree will get insane hype. Calvin was taken 1.01 in a lot of leagues, 1.02 in a bunch more and at worst 1.03 (ppr, which is all I play).

I don't think there is anyway he falls to 1.05 or 1.06. 1.03-1.04 seems like a good bet. The combine will tell most of the story on that end. Calvin went to the Lions and that didn't hurt his stock, so I'm not sure Crabtree could land in a spot that actually knocks him out of the top 5.

Beyond that, some good lists.

 

[FUBAR]

I'd like to see your list of top 12 in non-ppr, just a list, no explanations needed.

It would be the same order, but the RBs would be listed ahead of the WRs. Something like:1. Moreno

2. Greene

3. Wells

4. McCoy

5. Spiller

6. Crabtree

7. Maclin

8. Harvin

9. DHB

10. Bradford

11. Dillard

12. Britt

WRs are severely de-valued in most non-PPR leagues. I tend not to like those formats since I think they basically force you to make bad picks (by forcing you to reach for mediocre RBs).

Don't be surprised if Davis is top 12 in the end. But for now, this list is fine - I disagree with Wells at 3 (he's probably my #1) and Crabtree, even in PPR should be higher, but solid list overall for now. I'd love to see a top 20 including IDPs, but I can't make a good list that deep myself and aside from the hyped USC/OSU LBs, I'm not sure where the IDPs rank right now.

If that is James Davis, I would be surprised if he is drafted before round 4. If a remember he was givin like 3rd round grade last year, and did perform well at all in 2008. A guy to look for who is not being discussed much now in Doanld Brown of UConn.

.Flip a coin if he meant James Davis or Nate Davis, odds are 50-50.

Nate, whom I happen to like better than the other QBs.

 

[Cookiemonster]

I'd wager Micheal Crabtree will get insane hype. Calvin was taken 1.01 in a lot of leagues, 1.02 in a bunch more and at worst 1.03 (ppr, which is all I play).

I don't think there is anyway he falls to 1.05 or 1.06. 1.03-1.04 seems like a good bet. The combine will tell most of the story on that end. Calvin went to the Lions and that didn't hurt his stock, so I'm not sure Crabtree could land in a spot that actually knocks him out of the top 5.

Beyond that, some good lists.

Crabtree won't come out and run a 4.3 at Calvin's size. The hype on Calvin was justified, but based as much on potential as his athleticism. Braylon Edwards (before he got the dropsies this year) would have made a good comparison to Crabtree as well, but Braylon is faster too. I like the Bowe comparison very much, but I'm betting with the 40 times Macklin, Harvin & DHB are expected to put up, they will make Crabtree a little forgotten come draft day. Not saying they will go before him, but either one of them could (remember Avery last year). Add to this, there are likely 4 elite WR rookies and a very nice looking 2nd & 3rd tier. WR value in the draft will likely hurt itself by teams needing a WR waiting 'till later to get one "about as good." If he slips out of the top 5 in the NFL draft and Macklin goes 3 spots later, with Harvin & DHB in the following 5 picks... there is certainly a chance that a fantasy draft could see Crabtree go after a homer pick to 1.04 or 1.05. Especially if he lands in say - Oakland.

 

[FUBAR]

Since so many leagues are different, I thought I would get your thoughts on a 16 team league that starts 11 O players with lots of flex including 2 QB's which get 6 pts and 3 for picks. Basically 1 per 20 and .5 per reception with TE's getting 1 per 10. K also has some value as can start 2 and they get 4 points for 40 plus FB's and 5 for 50. So TD heavy in the end

I know if you did a mock of last year that Ryan would have the #1 pick(he went 6th) and Flacco would be the #2(he went 16th). Keller would be top 16 also.

We do our draft the day before the NFL draft for just round 1 so always interesting to read this stuff

My mock which could be based on need also.

1. Sam Bradford

2. Matthew Stafford

3. Chris Wells

4. Micheal Crabtree

5. Knowshown Moreno

6. Graham Harrell

7. Jeremy Macklin

8. Shonne Greene

9. Leshon McCoy

10. D H Bey

11. Percy Harvin

12. Jermaine Grisham

13. Sam Swank PK

14. DeMarco Murray

15. CJ Spiller

16. Kenny Britt

seriously, a PK in the 1st round? Harrell isn't a good prospect.

 

[Cookiemonster]

Harrell isn't a good prospect.

What don't you like about Harrell? He's got a live arm, and is laser accurate. I like what I've seen, but if you pressure him a lot, he does fold a little. What QB doesn't when getting the kind of pressure he was under last game?

 

[Buckna]

I'd wager Micheal Crabtree will get insane hype. Calvin was taken 1.01 in a lot of leagues, 1.02 in a bunch more and at worst 1.03 (ppr, which is all I play). I don't think there is anyway he falls to 1.05 or 1.06. 1.03-1.04 seems like a good bet. The combine will tell most of the story on that end. Calvin went to the Lions and that didn't hurt his stock, so I'm not sure Crabtree could land in a spot that actually knocks him out of the top 5. Beyond that, some good lists.

I've seen Crabtree projected to the Raiders in some very early mock drafts. Every year I try to remind myself not to take current situation too much into account, but that's about the only thing that would drop him relative to the other top WR's in my mind.

 

[Cookiemonster]

I'd wager Micheal Crabtree will get insane hype. Calvin was taken 1.01 in a lot of leagues, 1.02 in a bunch more and at worst 1.03 (ppr, which is all I play). I don't think there is anyway he falls to 1.05 or 1.06. 1.03-1.04 seems like a good bet. The combine will tell most of the story on that end. Calvin went to the Lions and that didn't hurt his stock, so I'm not sure Crabtree could land in a spot that actually knocks him out of the top 5. Beyond that, some good lists.

I've seen Crabtree projected to the Raiders in some very early mock drafts. Every year I try to remind myself not to take current situation too much into account, but that's about the only thing that would drop him relative to the other top WR's in my mind.

From three posts above-If he slips out of the top 5 in the NFL draft and Macklin goes 3 spots later, with Harvin & DHB in the following 5 picks... there is certainly a chance that a fantasy draft could see Crabtree go after a homer pick to 1.04 or 1.05. Especially if he lands in say - Oakland.

 

[TheWick]

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

Great Post

 

[Max Power]

Overall: Wells is the biggest enigma in this draft class. He shows flashes of greatness , but I think he's a much bigger boom-or-bust proposition than his reputation would indicate. He might ultimately become the best FF player from this class, but there's enough risk here for me to let someone else take that gamble.

So he might have the highest ceiling of any prospect in the class, but could also bust the same as anyone else in the class. I'm just trying to understand this quote. Personally he seems like he might have one of the highest "floors" in this class.

 

[FUBAR]

Harrell isn't a good prospect.

What don't you like about Harrell? He's got a live arm, and is laser accurate. I like what I've seen, but if you pressure him a lot, he does fold a little. What QB doesn't when getting the kind of pressure he was under last game?

System mostly, it doesn't translate to the NFL. He'll need more time to acclimate to the NFL than most owners are willing to give a top 10 pick (FF). He's accurate with time, but will he have that time in the NFL? He isn't mobile. His prospects for eventual success are ok, but there's no way I take him #6. Top of the 2nd maybe. No chance would I take him above Nate Davis (ok, maybe if he heads to Arizona)

 

[Cookiemonster]

Harrell isn't a good prospect.

What don't you like about Harrell? He's got a live arm, and is laser accurate. I like what I've seen, but if you pressure him a lot, he does fold a little. What QB doesn't when getting the kind of pressure he was under last game?

System mostly, it doesn't translate to the NFL. He'll need more time to acclimate to the NFL than most owners are willing to give a top 10 pick (FF). He's accurate with time, but will he have that time in the NFL? He isn't mobile. His prospects for eventual success are ok, but there's no way I take him #6. Top of the 2nd maybe. No chance would I take him above Nate Davis (ok, maybe if he heads to Arizona)

I wasn't suggesting he be in the top of the 1st. I like him at about 15-20 though.

 

[coolnerd]

I'd like to see your list of top 12 in non-ppr, just a list, no explanations needed.

It would be the same order, but the RBs would be listed ahead of the WRs. Something like:1. Moreno

2. Greene

3. Wells

4. McCoy

5. Spiller

6. Crabtree

7. Maclin

8. Harvin

9. DHB

10. Bradford

11. Dillard

12. Britt

WRs are severely de-valued in most non-PPR leagues. I tend not to like those formats since I think they basically force you to make bad picks (by forcing you to reach for mediocre RBs).

Don't be surprised if Davis is top 12 in the end. But for now, this list is fine - I disagree with Wells at 3 (he's probably my #1) and Crabtree, even in PPR should be higher, but solid list overall for now. I'd love to see a top 20 including IDPs, but I can't make a good list that deep myself and aside from the hyped USC/OSU LBs, I'm not sure where the IDPs rank right now.

If that is James Davis, I would be surprised if he is drafted before round 4. If a remember he was givin like 3rd round grade last year, and did perform well at all in 2008. A guy to look for who is not being discussed much now in Doanld Brown of UConn.

.Flip a coin if he meant James Davis or Nate Davis, odds are 50-50.

Nate, whom I happen to like better than the other QBs.

yeah, I have watched the last couple of Ball State games, and looked at him favorably even though he did not jump out at me as a high first NFL type. need to look at him closer.

 

[EBF]

Nice synopsis.Admittedly, I don't follow college too closely until nearer to the draft, but how many of these RBs project to be first rounders?Especially when you considering that there may not be all that many NFL teams that will look for an RB that early.

That really depends. I think Moreno and Wells are locks. I also think McCoy, Spiller, and Greene have first round potential.

 

[EBF]

I would compare Darrius Heyward-Bey to Joey Galloway and not Andre Johnson although he is taller than Galloway and has the potential to have a frame like Johnson's. But the pure speed and the acceleration reminds me of Joey Galloway and I hope they don't make him put on 15 pounds. He is one of those few guys that you watch in college who when he gets into the secondary you're sure he's gone and you're sure he can do it on the next level. He's gonna be a pretty good weapon for someone right away.

He's a nice prospect. Galloway makes some sense, but DHB is bigger. This is really a nice group of wideouts coming out this year. The odds say 1-2 of these guys will bust, but I haven't been this enamored of a WR group since the Fitz/Roy/Reggie/Evans class. Crabtree, Maclin, Harvin, and DHB are all players that I'd feel comfortable using a first round rookie pick on in PPR. And then you have some nice prospects in the second tier who could be players.

I think DHB will be much better suited to the pro game than college. Of course, the MD QB play has been horrific that last few years so his numbers have been severely depressed. He's got just about everything you want - good burst, can get off the line, world-class top end speed, and good hands. He can catch the ball in traffic & can leap to get the ball (something he unfortuately had to do more than he should). My only concern with him may be his attitude. I don't want to overstate this because there's zero documented evidence that he's a bad guy or teammate. But I've seen him look very frustrated sometimes on the field (not that I blame him) & some of his quotes after bad games have been a little iffy. But again, there's no evidence of buttholeishness & my vague worry on this may not mean anything - could be he's just a great competitor.

DHB has the misfortune of coming out in a year when Crabtree, Maclin, and Harvin are also available. He's a fine prospect, but those guys all offer comparable physical ability with a stronger track record of production. I think I know what you mean about his attitude. He looks a little bit lackadaisical out there sometimes. He could by the type of guy who gets lazy when he gets his NFL dollars.

 

[offdee]

I would compare Darrius Heyward-Bey to Joey Galloway and not Andre Johnson although he is taller than Galloway and has the potential to have a frame like Johnson's. But the pure speed and the acceleration reminds me of Joey Galloway and I hope they don't make him put on 15 pounds. He is one of those few guys that you watch in college who when he gets into the secondary you're sure he's gone and you're sure he can do it on the next level. He's gonna be a pretty good weapon for someone right away.

He's a nice prospect. Galloway makes some sense, but DHB is bigger. This is really a nice group of wideouts coming out this year. The odds say 1-2 of these guys will bust, but I haven't been this enamored of a WR group since the Fitz/Roy/Reggie/Evans class. Crabtree, Maclin, Harvin, and DHB are all players that I'd feel comfortable using a first round rookie pick on in PPR. And then you have some nice prospects in the second tier who could be players.

I think DHB will be much better suited to the pro game than college. Of course, the MD QB play has been horrific that last few years so his numbers have been severely depressed. He's got just about everything you want - good burst, can get off the line, world-class top end speed, and good hands. He can catch the ball in traffic & can leap to get the ball (something he unfortuately had to do more than he should). My only concern with him may be his attitude. I don't want to overstate this because there's zero documented evidence that he's a bad guy or teammate. But I've seen him look very frustrated sometimes on the field (not that I blame him) & some of his quotes after bad games have been a little iffy. But again, there's no evidence of buttholeishness & my vague worry on this may not mean anything - could be he's just a great competitor.

How does DHB compare to Chad Jackson (Florida/Patriots)? For some reason I can't shake that he's going to be Chad Jackson v2.0....passes the eye test, great measurables, looks to have everything you want in a WR, etc. but just doesn't produce on the next level.