EBF
Footballguy
4/23 update in post #69
After having some time to weigh pro day results and new scouting reports from respected sources, I've come up with a fresh set of rankings. I'll try to keep the commentary pretty brief. Players listed in RED are overrated. Players listed in GREEN are underrated. These are PPR rankings.
First Tier
1. WR Michael Crabtree - The closest thing to a can't-miss player in this draft. Should develop into a productive possession WR. Few holes in his game.
2. RB Chris Wells - I'm not wild about his skills, but at the end of the day he has the best combination of featured back size and dynamic athleticism of any back in this draft. Immediate boom potential, but considerable long term bust risk due to durability and toughness concerns.
3. RB Shonn Greene - Earl Campbell without the second gear. Good feet and leg drive. Underappreciated player who should produce out of the gate if he gets opportunities. Think Rudi Johnson. If he lands on a team with an entrenched starter, knock him to the bottom of this tier.
4. RB Knowshon Moreno - Productive college player who lacks the top physical ability of a typical pro starter. Still has a chance to be productive, but not as good as his reputation would indicate.
5. WR Hakeem Nicks - Has the lowest upside of the top 5 WRs in the draft, but has a high floor. Good chance to become a productive starter at the next level. Probably not a Pro Bowler. More like a Cotchery or Houshmandzadeh type.
6. WR Darrius Heyward-Bey - The counterpoint to Nicks. Has the highest ceiling of any WR in this draft and elite measurables, but is an enigma. Might be great. Might be garbage. Gamble whose upside warrants a top 3-6 pick.
7. WR Percy Harvin - Dynamic athlete in the mold of Laveranues Coles and Santana Moss. Will probably need a little time to learn the nuances of the position, but possesses the raw ability needed to make the jump.
8. WR Jeremy Maclin - Has great playing speed and was productive in college, but is a little bit of a risk due to questions about his route running and separation skills.
Second Tier
9. RB Donald Brown - Workout phenom who dominated in college. Should be a slam dunk, but something doesn't smell right. Lacks ideal featured back size and might be a third down-workhorse tweener. If you like him, you can justify him a lot higher. I think there's some JJ Arrington risk here.
10. RB LeSean McCoy - Plummeting down my board after a dismal pro day performance. Looking like more of a change of pace back than a starter, though he's worth a look if he lands in a favorable spot. Very good quickness and lots of potential as a pass catcher.
11. RB Cedric Peerman - Probable 3rd-4th round NFL pick whose intriguing combination of size and combine numbers makes him a viable gamble once the top players are off the board.
12. RB Rashad Jennings - Fringe athlete who could excel in spot duty, but probably lacks the natural gifts needed to hold down a starting job long term. Keep an eye on where he lands. If he has a chance to get on the field early, he could be a decent stop-gap performer. Otherwise I would probably pass on him.
13. QB Matt Stafford - You never know what you're going to get with a QB, but this seems like the right range for Stafford. He'll be an early pick and he'll get a chance to start for his team eventually, so you can always hold and trade later.
14. QB Mark Sanchez - Showed enough potential in college to earn a high draft slot. Probably won't contribute for a couple years, but could be worth a stash once the pickings get slim.
15. WR Jarett Dillard - Has top notch natural football skills and underrated athletic ability. Good second tier prospect with a realistic chance of developing into a productive starter.
16. WR Mike Thomas - Under 5'8" tall, but has freakish athletic ability and was a massively productive player in college. Hard to see where he fits in at the next level, but he's definitely a player.
17. WR Kenny Britt - Physically gifted and has the potential to drastically outperform this ranking. What worries me is the fact that numerous sources cite his inconsistent hands and propensity for dropping passes. Bad hands can't be fixed through coaching, so he may end up like Quincy Morgan or Tyrone Calico.
18. WR Brandon Tate - Gifted WR recovering from a serious knee injury. High risk/high upside flyer who becomes a nice pick once the top prospects are gone. Could develop into a Derrick Mason type.
Third Tier
19. RB Andre Brown - Looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane type. Great player on paper, but seemingly lacks top instincts and has never lived up to the hype on the field. High upside type who will be drafted on potential. Think Chris Henry. Intriguing upside if he has a starting opportunity. Otherwise just a boom-or-bust project.
20. RB Kory Sheets - Reminds me of Moreno in some respects and is actually a superior athlete. If he was 10 pounds bigger, he'd be a top sleeper. As it stands right now he's a bit of a tweener. He doesn't have conventional starter size and may be relegated to a change of pace or backup role. Good flyer with underrated potential.
21. WR Brian Robiskie - I'm probably being too hard on Robiskie. You can justify him in the second tier, but I think he's a maxed out talent whose lack of upside makes him a weak pick in FF leagues. He's the kind of guy who will come out and get 800 yards as a rookie and then never improve on that number throughout the rest of his career. Good football player. Just doesn't have special qualities. Only worth a look if he lands in a friendly system.
22. QB Josh Freeman - His overall profile reminds me a lot of Jason Campbell. Classic late 1st-early 2nd type of QB prospect who will probably get a chance to start somewhere eventually. Big upside. As with any QB, the risk is also huge.
23. WR Kenny McKinley - Under the radar receiver who will probably be drafted earlier than where pundits project him. Consistently productive in college and ran a high 4.3 at the combine. Quality sleeper pick.
24. RB Mike Goodson - Headcase with just enough upside to warrant a late pick. Has big play skills, but is a WR/RB tweener who probably won't get enough touches to have much value. Kind of a Norwood type, but with a diva streak.
After having some time to weigh pro day results and new scouting reports from respected sources, I've come up with a fresh set of rankings. I'll try to keep the commentary pretty brief. Players listed in RED are overrated. Players listed in GREEN are underrated. These are PPR rankings.
First Tier
1. WR Michael Crabtree - The closest thing to a can't-miss player in this draft. Should develop into a productive possession WR. Few holes in his game.
2. RB Chris Wells - I'm not wild about his skills, but at the end of the day he has the best combination of featured back size and dynamic athleticism of any back in this draft. Immediate boom potential, but considerable long term bust risk due to durability and toughness concerns.
3. RB Shonn Greene - Earl Campbell without the second gear. Good feet and leg drive. Underappreciated player who should produce out of the gate if he gets opportunities. Think Rudi Johnson. If he lands on a team with an entrenched starter, knock him to the bottom of this tier.
4. RB Knowshon Moreno - Productive college player who lacks the top physical ability of a typical pro starter. Still has a chance to be productive, but not as good as his reputation would indicate.
5. WR Hakeem Nicks - Has the lowest upside of the top 5 WRs in the draft, but has a high floor. Good chance to become a productive starter at the next level. Probably not a Pro Bowler. More like a Cotchery or Houshmandzadeh type.
6. WR Darrius Heyward-Bey - The counterpoint to Nicks. Has the highest ceiling of any WR in this draft and elite measurables, but is an enigma. Might be great. Might be garbage. Gamble whose upside warrants a top 3-6 pick.
7. WR Percy Harvin - Dynamic athlete in the mold of Laveranues Coles and Santana Moss. Will probably need a little time to learn the nuances of the position, but possesses the raw ability needed to make the jump.
8. WR Jeremy Maclin - Has great playing speed and was productive in college, but is a little bit of a risk due to questions about his route running and separation skills.
Second Tier
9. RB Donald Brown - Workout phenom who dominated in college. Should be a slam dunk, but something doesn't smell right. Lacks ideal featured back size and might be a third down-workhorse tweener. If you like him, you can justify him a lot higher. I think there's some JJ Arrington risk here.
10. RB LeSean McCoy - Plummeting down my board after a dismal pro day performance. Looking like more of a change of pace back than a starter, though he's worth a look if he lands in a favorable spot. Very good quickness and lots of potential as a pass catcher.
11. RB Cedric Peerman - Probable 3rd-4th round NFL pick whose intriguing combination of size and combine numbers makes him a viable gamble once the top players are off the board.
12. RB Rashad Jennings - Fringe athlete who could excel in spot duty, but probably lacks the natural gifts needed to hold down a starting job long term. Keep an eye on where he lands. If he has a chance to get on the field early, he could be a decent stop-gap performer. Otherwise I would probably pass on him.
13. QB Matt Stafford - You never know what you're going to get with a QB, but this seems like the right range for Stafford. He'll be an early pick and he'll get a chance to start for his team eventually, so you can always hold and trade later.
14. QB Mark Sanchez - Showed enough potential in college to earn a high draft slot. Probably won't contribute for a couple years, but could be worth a stash once the pickings get slim.
15. WR Jarett Dillard - Has top notch natural football skills and underrated athletic ability. Good second tier prospect with a realistic chance of developing into a productive starter.
16. WR Mike Thomas - Under 5'8" tall, but has freakish athletic ability and was a massively productive player in college. Hard to see where he fits in at the next level, but he's definitely a player.
17. WR Kenny Britt - Physically gifted and has the potential to drastically outperform this ranking. What worries me is the fact that numerous sources cite his inconsistent hands and propensity for dropping passes. Bad hands can't be fixed through coaching, so he may end up like Quincy Morgan or Tyrone Calico.
18. WR Brandon Tate - Gifted WR recovering from a serious knee injury. High risk/high upside flyer who becomes a nice pick once the top prospects are gone. Could develop into a Derrick Mason type.
Third Tier
19. RB Andre Brown - Looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane type. Great player on paper, but seemingly lacks top instincts and has never lived up to the hype on the field. High upside type who will be drafted on potential. Think Chris Henry. Intriguing upside if he has a starting opportunity. Otherwise just a boom-or-bust project.
20. RB Kory Sheets - Reminds me of Moreno in some respects and is actually a superior athlete. If he was 10 pounds bigger, he'd be a top sleeper. As it stands right now he's a bit of a tweener. He doesn't have conventional starter size and may be relegated to a change of pace or backup role. Good flyer with underrated potential.
21. WR Brian Robiskie - I'm probably being too hard on Robiskie. You can justify him in the second tier, but I think he's a maxed out talent whose lack of upside makes him a weak pick in FF leagues. He's the kind of guy who will come out and get 800 yards as a rookie and then never improve on that number throughout the rest of his career. Good football player. Just doesn't have special qualities. Only worth a look if he lands in a friendly system.
22. QB Josh Freeman - His overall profile reminds me a lot of Jason Campbell. Classic late 1st-early 2nd type of QB prospect who will probably get a chance to start somewhere eventually. Big upside. As with any QB, the risk is also huge.
23. WR Kenny McKinley - Under the radar receiver who will probably be drafted earlier than where pundits project him. Consistently productive in college and ran a high 4.3 at the combine. Quality sleeper pick.
24. RB Mike Goodson - Headcase with just enough upside to warrant a late pick. Has big play skills, but is a WR/RB tweener who probably won't get enough touches to have much value. Kind of a Norwood type, but with a diva streak.
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DHB is getting a lot of love at the same time Britt is losing it.I have Britt higher FWIW.
I like Greene also but based on talent I don't think he can crack my top 10. Situation is critical for him.
I doubt when fantasy drafts fire up he'll ever make it too far down.
I doubt when fantasy drafts fire up he'll ever make it too far down.
I'd love to get him in the 1.5 - 1.8 range in all my rookie drafts
Arrington benefited from a strong passing game. Brown's was non-existent by comparison. I can see Greene being ranked higher than Brown, I almost did the same.
Arrington benefited from a strong passing game. Brown's was non-existent by comparison. I can see Greene being ranked higher than Brown, I almost did the same.
