[DYNASTY] 2010 Top 24 Rookies (1 Viewer)

[mozzy84]

nice post

 

[EBF]

Draft position is only one of the factors involved in my rankings. If I like someone a lot more than where he was drafted, there's no law saying that I can't bet against the odds and rank him higher than where his draft position would suggest.I think I have Tate about where he belongs though. Dwyer is the only player ranked ahead of him on my list who was picked lower than him in the NFL draft. I don't think Tate is a special prospect and I think people are exaggerating his talent level because of the high name recognition factor. Four months ago most casual NFL fans probably didn't even know who Andre Roberts and Emmanuel Sanders were, but many of them were familiar with Tate because of the national exposure that players receive at Notre Dame. This is one of the reasons why Jimmy Clausen is being drafted so much higher than a usual 2nd round QB prospect.

Since Dwyer has been brought up a couple of times, I'd like to see you address him in particular. 1. Please explain why you are so high on him. I don't find him in a particularly good position in Pittsburgh where he is, at best, there to give Mendenhall a breather for the near future. Moore is the 3rd down back and if Dwyer can beat out Redman, then he could be a short yardage/TD vulture. But he is a long way from feature back or even RBBC. 2. Can you please use the same "metrics" you used regarding QBs (in deconstructing the Clausen pick) and WRs (in addressing the Gilyard question). By that I mean, compare him to recent 6th round RB projections (since that's what 32 front offices deemed him) and forcast the percentage that we are likely to expect him to succeed.

Teams make mistakes from time to time and every draft has a handful of players who should've been picked a lot higher. I think Dwyer is one of those guys this year, even though the odds are against him. He's the only player on my list ranked significantly higher than his draft position would dictate, so it's not like I'm inconsistent in this area as a rule.Regarding his value, you're putting way too much emphasis on short term situation. If Dwyer turns out to be a franchise caliber RB then he will eventually find a starting job like Michael Turner before him. Dwyer is only 20 years old. He will only be 21 years old at the start of the season. Mendenhall only has three years left on his rookie deal. This means that if the Steelers like Dwyer enough to think he could replace Mendy then he might inherit a starting job when he's still only 24 years old. That's only one year older than Toby Gerhart is right now. You have to use your imagination a little bit with RB sleepers because few of them outside of the very top guys who are drafted for need land in situations that look good on paper. If they have talent, they eventually emerge somehow somewhere.

 

[ty247]

I'm starting to get addicted to Mike Williams.. I love his talent, like his situation and feel he can be a player. I realize the red flags.. but I can't help but think about putting myself in a situation where I can draft him in the rookie draft..

 

[finito]

I'm starting to get addicted to Mike Williams.. I love his talent, like his situation and feel he can be a player. I realize the red flags.. but I can't help but think about putting myself in a situation where I can draft him in the rookie draft..

He definitely has talent but he is a risky pick, character issues in his case are not overblown - that said, everyone's risky after the first few picks. I would probably go for someone like Damian Williams or Marty Gilyard over him though.

 

[B. Nugget]

I'm starting to get addicted to Mike Williams.. I love his talent, like his situation and feel he can be a player. I realize the red flags.. but I can't help but think about putting myself in a situation where I can draft him in the rookie draft..

He definitely has talent but he is a risky pick, character issues in his case are not overblown - that said, everyone's risky after the first few picks. I would probably go for someone like Damian Williams or Marty Gilyard over him though.

Can someone give a quick recap of the Mike Williams character issues? I know he quit the team at Syracuse, but I've never heard why he is such a bad guy. Don't mean to derail the thread, just curious as I see it mentioned over and over and have never heard specifics. Arrests? Drugs? Bad teammate?

 

[Idiot Boxer]

Draft position is only one of the factors involved in my rankings. If I like someone a lot more than where he was drafted, there's no law saying that I can't bet against the odds and rank him higher than where his draft position would suggest.I think I have Tate about where he belongs though. Dwyer is the only player ranked ahead of him on my list who was picked lower than him in the NFL draft. I don't think Tate is a special prospect and I think people are exaggerating his talent level because of the high name recognition factor. Four months ago most casual NFL fans probably didn't even know who Andre Roberts and Emmanuel Sanders were, but many of them were familiar with Tate because of the national exposure that players receive at Notre Dame. This is one of the reasons why Jimmy Clausen is being drafted so much higher than a usual 2nd round QB prospect.

Since Dwyer has been brought up a couple of times, I'd like to see you address him in particular. 1. Please explain why you are so high on him. I don't find him in a particularly good position in Pittsburgh where he is, at best, there to give Mendenhall a breather for the near future. Moore is the 3rd down back and if Dwyer can beat out Redman, then he could be a short yardage/TD vulture. But he is a long way from feature back or even RBBC. 2. Can you please use the same "metrics" you used regarding QBs (in deconstructing the Clausen pick) and WRs (in addressing the Gilyard question). By that I mean, compare him to recent 6th round RB projections (since that's what 32 front offices deemed him) and forcast the percentage that we are likely to expect him to succeed.

Teams make mistakes from time to time and every draft has a handful of players who should've been picked a lot higher. I think Dwyer is one of those guys this year, even though the odds are against him. He's the only player on my list ranked significantly higher than his draft position would dictate, so it's not like I'm inconsistent in this area as a rule.Regarding his value, you're putting way too much emphasis on short term situation. If Dwyer turns out to be a franchise caliber RB then he will eventually find a starting job like Michael Turner before him. Dwyer is only 20 years old. He will only be 21 years old at the start of the season. Mendenhall only has three years left on his rookie deal. This means that if the Steelers like Dwyer enough to think he could replace Mendy then he might inherit a starting job when he's still only 24 years old. That's only one year older than Toby Gerhart is right now. You have to use your imagination a little bit with RB sleepers because few of them outside of the very top guys who are drafted for need land in situations that look good on paper. If they have talent, they eventually emerge somehow somewhere.

I'm a Steelers fan. I love the Dwyer pick. I just think it is inconsistent to use the "let's look at other 2nd round QBs" argument or the "lets look at other 3rd round WRs" argument for Clausen and Gilyard but not look at the "Lets look at other 6th round RBs" argument when discussing Dwyer.For ####s and giggles can you please do the same look back at recent 6th round RBs?

 

[EBF]

I'm starting to get addicted to Mike Williams.. I love his talent, like his situation and feel he can be a player. I realize the red flags.. but I can't help but think about putting myself in a situation where I can draft him in the rookie draft..

He definitely has talent but he is a risky pick, character issues in his case are not overblown - that said, everyone's risky after the first few picks. I would probably go for someone like Damian Williams or Marty Gilyard over him though.

Can someone give a quick recap of the Mike Williams character issues? I know he quit the team at Syracuse, but I've never heard why he is such a bad guy. Don't mean to derail the thread, just curious as I see it mentioned over and over and have never heard specifics. Arrests? Drugs? Bad teammate?

Suspended for the entire 2008 season for academic cheating.Suspended for the Akron game in 2009 for a violation of team rules.Quit the team later in the 2009 season, allegedly because he was about to be suspended again for staying out too late (from what I understand he was pulled over in a car with some other SU football players at about 5:30 AM). No documented problems with drugs or crime that I know of, but is obviously a questionable decision maker who will have a lot of trouble resisting the temptations that come along with an NFL career.

 

[EBF]

Draft position is only one of the factors involved in my rankings. If I like someone a lot more than where he was drafted, there's no law saying that I can't bet against the odds and rank him higher than where his draft position would suggest.I think I have Tate about where he belongs though. Dwyer is the only player ranked ahead of him on my list who was picked lower than him in the NFL draft. I don't think Tate is a special prospect and I think people are exaggerating his talent level because of the high name recognition factor. Four months ago most casual NFL fans probably didn't even know who Andre Roberts and Emmanuel Sanders were, but many of them were familiar with Tate because of the national exposure that players receive at Notre Dame. This is one of the reasons why Jimmy Clausen is being drafted so much higher than a usual 2nd round QB prospect.

Since Dwyer has been brought up a couple of times, I'd like to see you address him in particular. 1. Please explain why you are so high on him. I don't find him in a particularly good position in Pittsburgh where he is, at best, there to give Mendenhall a breather for the near future. Moore is the 3rd down back and if Dwyer can beat out Redman, then he could be a short yardage/TD vulture. But he is a long way from feature back or even RBBC. 2. Can you please use the same "metrics" you used regarding QBs (in deconstructing the Clausen pick) and WRs (in addressing the Gilyard question). By that I mean, compare him to recent 6th round RB projections (since that's what 32 front offices deemed him) and forcast the percentage that we are likely to expect him to succeed.

Teams make mistakes from time to time and every draft has a handful of players who should've been picked a lot higher. I think Dwyer is one of those guys this year, even though the odds are against him. He's the only player on my list ranked significantly higher than his draft position would dictate, so it's not like I'm inconsistent in this area as a rule.Regarding his value, you're putting way too much emphasis on short term situation. If Dwyer turns out to be a franchise caliber RB then he will eventually find a starting job like Michael Turner before him. Dwyer is only 20 years old. He will only be 21 years old at the start of the season. Mendenhall only has three years left on his rookie deal. This means that if the Steelers like Dwyer enough to think he could replace Mendy then he might inherit a starting job when he's still only 24 years old. That's only one year older than Toby Gerhart is right now. You have to use your imagination a little bit with RB sleepers because few of them outside of the very top guys who are drafted for need land in situations that look good on paper. If they have talent, they eventually emerge somehow somewhere.

I'm a Steelers fan. I love the Dwyer pick. I just think it is inconsistent to use the "let's look at other 2nd round QBs" argument or the "lets look at other 3rd round WRs" argument for Clausen and Gilyard but not look at the "Lets look at other 6th round RBs" argument when discussing Dwyer.For ####s and giggles can you please do the same look back at recent 6th round RBs?

Yes, it is inconsistent to make an exception for one player. That's because I think he's an unusual case. 23 of the 24 players on my list are ranked roughly where there draft position would dictate, so I don't think I'm contradicting myself at all if I downgrade a player because he was a low pick. In general, I think that the way to do rookie rankings is to look at the NFL draft order for guidance and then shuffle the players around a little bit based on your personal bias and league setup.

 

[shader]

EBF, I agree with basically everything aside from your evaluation of the Titans new WR. He's gonna be a good one. From a talent perspective, he reminds me of a Jimmy Smith/Reggie Wayne type player.

I don't see him as doing much the next year or two, as I don't think VY is a very good passer. But down the road, he could be one of the best WR's out of this draft.

 

[Idiot Boxer]

Sure, it means they didn't think he was a first round QB. However, not being a first round QB doesn't mean that much.

I don't know about that. People like to cite the famous examples of Tom Brady and Joe Montana to prove that NFL scouting departments don't know what they're doing, but in general very few of the game's elite QB prospects fall out of the first round. Here are the top 20 QBs on the current FBG dynasty rankings along with the round they were selected inrew Brees - 2Peyton Manning - 1Aaron Rodgers - 1Philip Rivers - 1Tony Romo - FATom Brady - 6Matt Schaub - 3Ben Roethlisberger - 1Jay Cutler - 1Matt Ryan - 1Matthew Stafford - 1Eli Manning - 1Joe Flacco - 1Donovan McNabb - 1Kevin Kolb - 2Carson Palmer - 1Mark Sanchez - 1Chad Henne - 2Vince Young - 1Josh Freeman - 170% of the players on this list were first round picks compared to 15% for second round picks and 5% for third round picks. Let's not pretend that draft position doesn't mean anything. Here are the last ten QBs to be chosen in the second round, excluding last year's draft:Brian BrohmChad HenneKevin KolbJohn BeckDrew StantonKellen ClemensTarvaris JacksonDrew BreesQuincy CarterMarques TuiasosopoHow many quality NFL starters are on this list? Brees is the only surefire lock in this group. Kolb and Henne enter 2010 as starters with high expectations. That gives this group a 10-30% success rate depending on what happens to the latter two. If you like Clausen then you can still pick him as high as you'd like, but I would argue that his NFL draft position suggests he's closer to Henne/Brohm/Stanton than Ryan/Sanchez/Rodgers purely as a prospect. Personally, I'm not going to use a top 15 rookie pick on that.

Ok. So with Clausen, you give him a 10-30% success rate based upon a) where he was picked and b) the success rate of those picked in similar positions.I'm ok with your analysis. I happen to think that Clausen will be within that 10-30% range and that his fall was artificially influenced by lack of perceived need by many teams and a belief that 'he'll be there later' by others.What I'd like to see is the same kind of analysis run for 6th round running backs. I wonder if it shows a 5% chance for success or a 20% chance of success...or some other number. I understand that whatever that number is, you believe he falls within that range...I am merely curious to see what happens when you apply the same metrics to the RB analysis that you applied to the QB analysis.

 

[Idiot Boxer]

Last 3 years of 6th round RBs (I think)

Cedrick Peerman

Aaron Brown

James Davis

Bernard Scott

Thomas Brown

Jalen Parmalee

Xavier Omon

Mike Hart

Oren O'Neal

Reagan Mauria

Thomas Clayton

Deon Anderson

Justice Hairston

Wali Lundy

Lawrence Vickers

J.D. Runnels

Conclusion: A lot of FBs taken in the 6th. Best chance of impact: Bernard Scott. 0 starters or stars at this point with Davis, Scott and Hilliard with reasonable potential?

Chester Taylor in 2002 would be the last 6th round RB with reasonable stats/starter potential.

 

[Jeremy]

 

[EBF]

EBF, I agree with basically everything aside from your evaluation of the Titans new WR. He's gonna be a good one. From a talent perspective, he reminds me of a Jimmy Smith/Reggie Wayne type player. I don't see him as doing much the next year or two, as I don't think VY is a very good passer. But down the road, he could be one of the best WR's out of this draft.

I don't know about Jimmy Smith/Reggie Wayne. That's pretty optimistic, but most people agree that he's a solid player. I definitely think he'll be starting there in the near future. Almost all of the draft sites and scouting reports list him as a top 5-6 WR in this class. If you like him you can certainly take him higher than where I have him ranked, but I'm not a fan of his game and I couldn't convince myself to pull the trigger on him in a recent draft even though he was sitting right there and I had three consecutive picks (20-22). I just don't like the way he moves. He looks good in a straight line, but awkward whenever he has to move laterally. I have never really been a fan of his pro prospects, dating back to the preseason (I think he can be a decent WR2 with a very low ceiling). Time will tell.

 

[thevidon]

EBF, I agree with basically everything aside from your evaluation of the Titans new WR. He's gonna be a good one. From a talent perspective, he reminds me of a Jimmy Smith/Reggie Wayne type player. I don't see him as doing much the next year or two, as I don't think VY is a very good passer. But down the road, he could be one of the best WR's out of this draft.

I don't know about Jimmy Smith/Reggie Wayne. That's pretty optimistic, but most people agree that he's a solid player. I definitely think he'll be starting there in the near future. Almost all of the draft sites and scouting reports list him as a top 5-6 WR in this class. If you like him you can certainly take him higher than where I have him ranked, but I'm not a fan of his game and I couldn't convince myself to pull the trigger on him in a recent draft even though he was sitting right there and I had three consecutive picks (20-22). I just don't like the way he moves. He looks good in a straight line, but awkward whenever he has to move laterally. I have never really been a fan of his pro prospects, dating back to the preseason (I think he can be a decent WR2 with a very low ceiling). Time will tell.

I'm gonna pile on the bandwagon here and say that you have Damian Williams too low. This draft class is full of super long shot maybe candidates at WR, and the fact that Williams is already a polished receiver who can come in and play immediately counts for a lot. His measurables may not have been earth shattering, but they are plenty good for a solid WR1. I also have not noticed a lack of lateral agility in his play - can you point to some examples I can watch?I really like the writeup overall. I usually disagree with at least half of your player analysis, but with this rookie class we are mostly on the same page. I would ask that you go watch Charles Scott run some more and see if you don't end up ranking him. I think he has great burst for his size and might surprise people with his production in Philly who have been lacking a strong power back for years.

 

[shader]

EBF, I agree with basically everything aside from your evaluation of the Titans new WR. He's gonna be a good one. From a talent perspective, he reminds me of a Jimmy Smith/Reggie Wayne type player. I don't see him as doing much the next year or two, as I don't think VY is a very good passer. But down the road, he could be one of the best WR's out of this draft.

I don't know about Jimmy Smith/Reggie Wayne. That's pretty optimistic, but most people agree that he's a solid player. I definitely think he'll be starting there in the near future. Almost all of the draft sites and scouting reports list him as a top 5-6 WR in this class. If you like him you can certainly take him higher than where I have him ranked, but I'm not a fan of his game and I couldn't convince myself to pull the trigger on him in a recent draft even though he was sitting right there and I had three consecutive picks (20-22). I just don't like the way he moves. He looks good in a straight line, but awkward whenever he has to move laterally. I have never really been a fan of his pro prospects, dating back to the preseason (I think he can be a decent WR2 with a very low ceiling). Time will tell.

Not trying to nitpick as you do a great job...but can you show me any video where his lateral movement is awkward? The reason I ask is that to me he looks like one of the most natural and fluid WR's in the draft. He's produced bigtime at Arkansas AND at USC, and I've just never noticed this awkward lateral movement.

 

[lyon812]

Sure, it means they didn't think he was a first round QB. However, not being a first round QB doesn't mean that much.

I don't know about that. People like to cite the famous examples of Tom Brady and Joe Montana to prove that NFL scouting departments don't know what they're doing, but in general very few of the game's elite QB prospects fall out of the first round. Here are the top 20 QBs on the current FBG dynasty rankings along with the round they were selected inrew Brees - 2Peyton Manning - 1Aaron Rodgers - 1Philip Rivers - 1Tony Romo - FATom Brady - 6Matt Schaub - 3Ben Roethlisberger - 1Jay Cutler - 1Matt Ryan - 1Matthew Stafford - 1Eli Manning - 1Joe Flacco - 1Donovan McNabb - 1Kevin Kolb - 2Carson Palmer - 1Mark Sanchez - 1Chad Henne - 2Vince Young - 1Josh Freeman – 170% of the players on this list were first round picks compared to 15% for second round picks and 5% for third round picks. Let's not pretend that draft position doesn't mean anything.

It’s all how you spin it. All that list demonstrates is that people rank players drafted in the first round consistently high.However:If you look at the Top 7 of that list, the majority (4/7) are not first rounders. If you look at the Top 10 of that list, 60% were first round picks, 40% were not. Definitely, if you look at the Top 15 (i.e. better than an average QB), then the chances drop precipitously—5/15 (33%) are second round picks are later. So what should we take from it? That in FBG dynasty rankings, non-first rounders have a higher chance of being a Top 7 quarterback? Or that from 11-20, people tend to rank first rounders highly, particularly ones drafted in the last few years? That isn’t a surprise. Three years ago, Leinart would have been on the list. Whether it’s him, Young, Freeman, whatever..it doesn’t make much of a difference. That bottom half constantly churns over.Instead, I propose that we look at “actual” production, utilizing QB efficiency. It’s not the perfect stat, but it should provide us with a fair representation of the top QB’s.2009 Top 15 in QB efficiency:1. Brees - 22. Favre - 23. Rivers - 14. Rodgers - 15. Roethlisberger - 16. ManningP - 17. Schaub - 38. Romo - FA9. Brady - 610. Warner - FA11. ManningE - 112. McNabb - 113. Flacco - 114. Orton - 415. Campbell – 1Ratio of first/non-first:Top 5: 3/2Top 10: 4/6Top 15: 5/102008 Top 15 in QB efficiency:1. Rivers - 12. Pennington - 13. Warner - FA4. Brees - 25. PManning - 16. Rodgers - 17. Schaub - 38. Romo - FA9. Garcia - FA10. Cassel - 711. Ryan - 112. Hill (288 attempts) - FA13. Wallace (242 attempts) - 414. EManning - 115. McNabb - 116. **Cutler - 117. **Edwards - 3Ratio of first/non-first:Top 5: 3/2Top 10: 4/6Top 15: 7/8 (8/7 if you include Hill/Wallace. Threw them out due to the lower attempts; Hill had 288, Wallace 242).2007 Top 15 in QB efficiency:1. Brady - 62. Roethlisberger - 13. Garrard - 44. PManning - 15. Romo - FA6. Favre - 27. Garcia - FA8. Hasselbeck - 69. McNabb - 110. Warner - FA11. Brees - 212. Cutler - 113. Schaub - 314. Palmer - 115. Pennington - 1Ratio of first/non-first:Top 5: 2/3Top 10: 3/7Top 15: 6/9 Summarizing:2009 first/nonfirstTop 5: 3/2Top 10: 4/6Top 15: 5/102008 first/nonfirstTop 5: 3/2Top 10: 4/6Top 15: 7/8 2007 first/non-first:Top 5: 2/3Top 10: 3/7Top 15: 6/9 So what’s our conclusion? In the FBG dynasty rankings, firs t rounders dominate the latter half of the top 15. In NFL production based on QB efficiency, they don’t have a sizeable advantage. In Clausen’s case, he was rated as a first round talent. He dropped for a number of reasons: Seattle almost took him highly. Carolina had a high grade on him. Cleveland went in with a set draft list and eyeing a QB that fit Holmgren’s system better. There was some concern about his toe/mobility. Unless you’re a big believer in Matt Moore, I simply don’t see a reason to rank him outside the Top 15 rookie picks this year.

 

[EBF]

I'm gonna pile on the bandwagon here and say that you have Damian Williams too low. This draft class is full of super long shot maybe candidates at WR, and the fact that Williams is already a polished receiver who can come in and play immediately counts for a lot. His measurables may not have been earth shattering, but they are plenty good for a solid WR1.

I also have not noticed a lack of lateral agility in his play - can you point to some examples I can watch?

It's pretty hard to put into words and I might be totally nitpicking something that's really not a big deal, but I think he looks awkward when he changes directions. He's great in a straight line, but when he plants or changes directions his knees almost buckle inwards. People who have seen him play extensively might know what I'm talking about. You can sort of see it in this clip on the play starting at 0:45 when he catches the screen pass. He turns upfield, fakes inside, and then makes a hard fake to the outside, where his leg temporarily gives out and almost causes him to lose his balance.

Is this hard evidence? No, but I've seen this guy play numerous times throughout his career and although he's definitely a talented athlete, there's always been something not quite right about the way he moves.

He's really good in a straight line though, so maybe it won't even matter. I do think he's one of the more polished rookie receivers in this class and I think he can step in and produce very early in his career. The issue for me is that I don't think he has a great ceiling. To me he's strictly a #2 WR in the NFL whose production will depend solely on the strength of his offense. I'm just a little more comfortable rolling the dice on a few of the other 3rd-4th round WRs who I like a bit more from an athletic standpoint.

 

[EBF]

In the FBG dynasty rankings, firs t rounders dominate the latter half of the top 15. In NFL production based on QB efficiency, they don’t have a sizeable advantage. In Clausen’s case, he was rated as a first round talent. He dropped for a number of reasons: Seattle almost took him highly. Carolina had a high grade on him. Cleveland went in with a set draft list and eyeing a QB that fit Holmgren’s system better. There was some concern about his toe/mobility. Unless you’re a big believer in Matt Moore, I simply don’t see a reason to rank him outside the Top 15 rookie picks this year.

You obviously like Clausen, so it's not surprising that you're framing things in a way that offers an optimistic outlook for his prospects. Facts are facts though and the success rate of 2nd round QBs is significantly lower than the success rate of 1st round QBs. If you still like him then you can certainly grade him as if he were a top 32 draft pick, but to say he was "rated as a first round talent" is not accurate. Sure, he may have had a first round grade on some team's board, but history will not show Jimmy Clausen as a first round pick. It will show him as a second round pick (and not even a very high one at that). I have no special affinity for Clausen as a player or prospect, so I'm ranking him about where I'd rank any other mid 2nd round QB who landed on a team with a shaky QB situation. That's all he is to me.

 

[ebaughn]

EBF-- I was wodering how you see the top 10 withought PPR for dynasty? I have the 1.03 and need RB help but I am really stuck at which RB do I target with that pick. I am thinking Best would be worth the 1.03 in non-ppr too. Thanks again for your posts and analysis.

 

[EBF]

EBF-- I was wodering how you see the top 10 withought PPR for dynasty? I have the 1.03 and need RB help but I am really stuck at which RB do I target with that pick. I am thinking Best would be worth the 1.03 in non-ppr too. Thanks again for your posts and analysis.

I would probably rank them:1. Mathews2. Bryant3. Best4. Spiller5. Thomas6. Bradford7. Tate8. Hardesty9. Gerhart10. GreshamTDs become more important in non-PPR, so you have to favor the bigger backs. Hardesty is probably a safer choice than Tate. Tate has more instant boom potential (along with more outright bust risk).

 

[Shutout]

Very good read. Thanks.

My 2 cents:

1)I don't know how anyone in a dynasty PPR could really draft Toby Gerhart before the early to mid 2nd round, because of the reasons outlined. It would basically take a career-ending injury to ADP to give him any consistent ff relevance that lasted from one season to another.

2)I think Hardesty is immensly overrated. I agree he will go right about where he is being predicted but think its a mistake. I like James Davis as much more of a factor and it seems like people are writing him off for some reason. If nothing else, using the same rational of Foster keeping Hardesty on the bench for a few years, wasn't it Davis who kept Spiller on the bench?

 

[EBF]

Very good read. Thanks.My 2 cents:1)I don't know how anyone in a dynasty PPR could really draft Toby Gerhart before the early to mid 2nd round, because of the reasons outlined. It would basically take a career-ending injury to ADP to give him any consistent ff relevance that lasted from one season to another.

You might have a point there. The argument in favor of Gerhart is that RB is the most valued position in most FF leagues and that he was picked above every WR who's ranked below him. Given Peterson's injury history, it's not tough to envision a scenario in which Gerhart assumes a significant role sometime in the near future.

2)I think Hardesty is immensly overrated. I agree he will go right about where he is being predicted but think its a mistake. I like James Davis as much more of a factor and it seems like people are writing him off for some reason. If nothing else, using the same rational of Foster keeping Hardesty on the bench for a few years, wasn't it Davis who kept Spiller on the bench?

While I don't see Davis as a good bet to win significant playing time in Cleveland, that's a valid point. I don't think it's proof that Spiller is not a dynamic talent, but it does highlight the fact that his scat back style might necessitate a RBBC with someone who offers more toughness and power inside.

 

[cstu]

Very good read. Thanks.My 2 cents:1)I don't know how anyone in a dynasty PPR could really draft Toby Gerhart before the early to mid 2nd round, because of the reasons outlined. It would basically take a career-ending injury to ADP to give him any consistent ff relevance that lasted from one season to another.

You might have a point there. The argument in favor of Gerhart is that RB is the most valued position in most FF leagues and that he was picked above every WR who's ranked below him. Given Peterson's injury history, it's not tough to envision a scenario in which Gerhart assumes a significant role sometime in the near future.

I picked him at 1.13 as a long-term pick and don't expect much out of him. As healthy as ADP has stayed so far it's no indicator that he will in the future. If anything happens to ADP, even something relatively minor like a high ankle sprain, then Gerhart would put up good numbers in that offense. I have some of my favorites (Sanders, McCluster and Roberts) but the WR's available in the 2nd round of rookie drafts are a crapshoot for the most part.

 

[az_prof]

I'm starting to get addicted to Mike Williams.. I love his talent, like his situation and feel he can be a player. I realize the red flags.. but I can't help but think about putting myself in a situation where I can draft him in the rookie draft..

He definitely has talent but he is a risky pick, character issues in his case are not overblown - that said, everyone's risky after the first few picks. I would probably go for someone like Damian Williams or Marty Gilyard over him though.

Can someone give a quick recap of the Mike Williams character issues? I know he quit the team at Syracuse, but I've never heard why he is such a bad guy. Don't mean to derail the thread, just curious as I see it mentioned over and over and have never heard specifics. Arrests? Drugs? Bad teammate?

Suspended for the entire 2008 season for academic cheating.Suspended for the Akron game in 2009 for a violation of team rules.Quit the team later in the 2009 season, allegedly because he was about to be suspended again for staying out too late (from what I understand he was pulled over in a car with some other SU football players at about 5:30 AM). No documented problems with drugs or crime that I know of, but is obviously a questionable decision maker who will have a lot of trouble resisting the temptations that come along with an NFL career.

Academic cheating is serious, but very, very common. I am glad he was suspended for it, but as a professor, I can tell you that many students cheat these days. This to me is not that much of a red flag for a football player.Without knowing what team ruled he violated for the Akron game it is hard to know what to think. If he was 10 minutes late getting to bed--no big deal. If he was drunk--not a big deal unless it is part of a pattern of drunken behavior. The case where he was out until 5:30 in the morning--again, more details are needed. Were they parked and drinking? Did they drive drunk? It's not unusual for a 21 year old to be out late at night with his buddy.Quitting the team? Could it be that the HC is a hard azzz? Could it be that he was being punished worse than the other players in that car? Could he have gotten justifiably angry and felt he was being singled out? I am speculating here but it is certainly conceivable to me that this is understandable.No drug problems or run-ins with the law? That's a big positive.I would like to interview him to know for sure, but I think his character problems may be overblown.

 

[Monty Burns]

.

 

[finito]

I'm starting to get addicted to Mike Williams.. I love his talent, like his situation and feel he can be a player. I realize the red flags.. but I can't help but think about putting myself in a situation where I can draft him in the rookie draft..

He definitely has talent but he is a risky pick, character issues in his case are not overblown - that said, everyone's risky after the first few picks. I would probably go for someone like Damian Williams or Marty Gilyard over him though.

Can someone give a quick recap of the Mike Williams character issues? I know he quit the team at Syracuse, but I've never heard why he is such a bad guy. Don't mean to derail the thread, just curious as I see it mentioned over and over and have never heard specifics. Arrests? Drugs? Bad teammate?

Suspended for the entire 2008 season for academic cheating.Suspended for the Akron game in 2009 for a violation of team rules.Quit the team later in the 2009 season, allegedly because he was about to be suspended again for staying out too late (from what I understand he was pulled over in a car with some other SU football players at about 5:30 AM). No documented problems with drugs or crime that I know of, but is obviously a questionable decision maker who will have a lot of trouble resisting the temptations that come along with an NFL career.

Academic cheating is serious, but very, very common. I am glad he was suspended for it, but as a professor, I can tell you that many students cheat these days. This to me is not that much of a red flag for a football player.Without knowing what team ruled he violated for the Akron game it is hard to know what to think. If he was 10 minutes late getting to bed--no big deal. If he was drunk--not a big deal unless it is part of a pattern of drunken behavior. The case where he was out until 5:30 in the morning--again, more details are needed. Were they parked and drinking? Did they drive drunk? It's not unusual for a 21 year old to be out late at night with his buddy.Quitting the team? Could it be that the HC is a hard azzz? Could it be that he was being punished worse than the other players in that car? Could he have gotten justifiably angry and felt he was being singled out? I am speculating here but it is certainly conceivable to me that this is understandable.No drug problems or run-ins with the law? That's a big positive.I would like to interview him to know for sure, but I think his character problems may be overblown.

Boy that's a lot of excuses.

 

[massraider]

Boy that's a lot of excuses.

Yeah, he is IMO the most interesting guy in rookie drafts. There's a lot of questions about his mental makeup, but depending how low he falls, the risk is pretty low. I also think there's a lot of young guys in Tampa, uncertainty about who shakes out where. We don't know quite what we have in Stroughter and Benn yet. Plus, it doesn't seem like TB is looking to chuck it around anytime soon. But I know he's one of those guys that I will be watching, and there's a certain point where I will be happy to take him.

 

[finito]

Boy that's a lot of excuses.

Yeah, he is IMO the most interesting guy in rookie drafts. There's a lot of questions about his mental makeup, but depending how low he falls, the risk is pretty low. I also think there's a lot of young guys in Tampa, uncertainty about who shakes out where. We don't know quite what we have in Stroughter and Benn yet. Plus, it doesn't seem like TB is looking to chuck it around anytime soon. But I know he's one of those guys that I will be watching, and there's a certain point where I will be happy to take him.

He seems to be going in the 2.02 - 2.06 range right now, and it could go into the late 1st if it keeps up.I think he's a great talent, but clearly there are issues here, I think anyone saying he might have just had bad luck are looking at things with rose-colored glasses.That said, I'd take him early/mid-second without a second thought. He's a top talent, and if he has learned his lessons he could become a fine player.

 

[Jail]

Boy that's a lot of excuses.

Yeah, he is IMO the most interesting guy in rookie drafts. There's a lot of questions about his mental makeup, but depending how low he falls, the risk is pretty low. I also think there's a lot of young guys in Tampa, uncertainty about who shakes out where. We don't know quite what we have in Stroughter and Benn yet. Plus, it doesn't seem like TB is looking to chuck it around anytime soon. But I know he's one of those guys that I will be watching, and there's a certain point where I will be happy to take him.

He seems to be going in the 2.02 - 2.06 range right now, and it could go into the late 1st if it keeps up.I think he's a great talent, but clearly there are issues here, I think anyone saying he might have just had bad luck are looking at things with rose-colored glasses.That said, I'd take him early/mid-second without a second thought. He's a top talent, and if he has learned his lessons he could become a fine player.

His value does seem to be rising, quickly. He went #13 in my rookie draft this weekend(PPR). And they guy that owns #14 was going to pick him if the guy at 13 didn't.

 

[ClownDogs]

Boy that's a lot of excuses.

Yeah, he is IMO the most interesting guy in rookie drafts. There's a lot of questions about his mental makeup, but depending how low he falls, the risk is pretty low. I also think there's a lot of young guys in Tampa, uncertainty about who shakes out where. We don't know quite what we have in Stroughter and Benn yet. Plus, it doesn't seem like TB is looking to chuck it around anytime soon. But I know he's one of those guys that I will be watching, and there's a certain point where I will be happy to take him.

He seems to be going in the 2.02 - 2.06 range right now, and it could go into the late 1st if it keeps up.I think he's a great talent, but clearly there are issues here, I think anyone saying he might have just had bad luck are looking at things with rose-colored glasses.That said, I'd take him early/mid-second without a second thought. He's a top talent, and if he has learned his lessons he could become a fine player.

His value does seem to be rising, quickly. He went #13 in my rookie draft this weekend(PPR). And they guy that owns #14 was going to pick him if the guy at 13 didn't.

I took him at 1.12 in a ppr league, 12 teams. I am stacked at WR and figured he has the most star qualitiy upside if he gets his head on straight, worth the risk for me.

 

[kremenull]

Very good read. Thanks.My 2 cents:1)I don't know how anyone in a dynasty PPR could really draft Toby Gerhart before the early to mid 2nd round, because of the reasons outlined. It would basically take a career-ending injury to ADP to give him any consistent ff relevance that lasted from one season to another. 2)I think Hardesty is immensly overrated. I agree he will go right about where he is being predicted but think its a mistake. I like James Davis as much more of a factor and it seems like people are writing him off for some reason. If nothing else, using the same rational of Foster keeping Hardesty on the bench for a few years, wasn't it Davis who kept Spiller on the bench?

But when a new regime comes in and trades up fo a RB in the 2nd Rd , that doesn't bode well for the holdovers......Writing is on the wall, Hardesty is the starter.....And no, Davis dednt keep Spiller on the bench, it was a timeshare. Bottome line is that currently Spiller >>>> Davis

 

[massraider]

Very good read. Thanks.My 2 cents:1)I don't know how anyone in a dynasty PPR could really draft Toby Gerhart before the early to mid 2nd round, because of the reasons outlined. It would basically take a career-ending injury to ADP to give him any consistent ff relevance that lasted from one season to another. 2)I think Hardesty is immensly overrated. I agree he will go right about where he is being predicted but think its a mistake. I like James Davis as much more of a factor and it seems like people are writing him off for some reason. If nothing else, using the same rational of Foster keeping Hardesty on the bench for a few years, wasn't it Davis who kept Spiller on the bench?

But when a new regime comes in and trades up fo a RB in the 2nd Rd , that doesn't bode well for the holdovers......Writing is on the wall, Hardesty is the starter.....

I think it's way too early to say that, and if Hardesty isn't the goods, he'll get replaced. If someone doesn't believe in Hardesty's talent or durability, it doesn't make sense to burn a mid-1st rounder on a guy, especially one that's not walking into a very good offense.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Don't want to divert a great discussion (so please don't comment in this thread), but I set up a dynasty contest involving this year's rookie class and thought I'd post it here since it seemed the most likely place to find people who are most interested.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

Very good read. Thanks.My 2 cents:1)I don't know how anyone in a dynasty PPR could really draft Toby Gerhart before the early to mid 2nd round, because of the reasons outlined. It would basically take a career-ending injury to ADP to give him any consistent ff relevance that lasted from one season to another. 2)I think Hardesty is immensly overrated. I agree he will go right about where he is being predicted but think its a mistake. I like James Davis as much more of a factor and it seems like people are writing him off for some reason. If nothing else, using the same rational of Foster keeping Hardesty on the bench for a few years, wasn't it Davis who kept Spiller on the bench?

But when a new regime comes in and trades up fo a RB in the 2nd Rd , that doesn't bode well for the holdovers......Writing is on the wall, Hardesty is the starter.....And no, Davis dednt keep Spiller on the bench, it was a timeshare. Bottome line is that currently Spiller >>>> Davis

Doesn't the coach - rather than the GM - decide who starts?

 

[Unwrittenlaw]

Very good read. Thanks.My 2 cents:1)I don't know how anyone in a dynasty PPR could really draft Toby Gerhart before the early to mid 2nd round, because of the reasons outlined. It would basically take a career-ending injury to ADP to give him any consistent ff relevance that lasted from one season to another. 2)I think Hardesty is immensly overrated. I agree he will go right about where he is being predicted but think its a mistake. I like James Davis as much more of a factor and it seems like people are writing him off for some reason. If nothing else, using the same rational of Foster keeping Hardesty on the bench for a few years, wasn't it Davis who kept Spiller on the bench?

But when a new regime comes in and trades up fo a RB in the 2nd Rd , that doesn't bode well for the holdovers......Writing is on the wall, Hardesty is the starter.....And no, Davis dednt keep Spiller on the bench, it was a timeshare. Bottome line is that currently Spiller >>>> Davis

Doesn't the coach - rather than the GM - decide who starts?

No, the GM often does unless the coach is asking to be fired.For example, look at Vince Young last year.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

Very good read. Thanks.My 2 cents:1)I don't know how anyone in a dynasty PPR could really draft Toby Gerhart before the early to mid 2nd round, because of the reasons outlined. It would basically take a career-ending injury to ADP to give him any consistent ff relevance that lasted from one season to another. 2)I think Hardesty is immensly overrated. I agree he will go right about where he is being predicted but think its a mistake. I like James Davis as much more of a factor and it seems like people are writing him off for some reason. If nothing else, using the same rational of Foster keeping Hardesty on the bench for a few years, wasn't it Davis who kept Spiller on the bench?

But when a new regime comes in and trades up fo a RB in the 2nd Rd , that doesn't bode well for the holdovers......Writing is on the wall, Hardesty is the starter.....And no, Davis dednt keep Spiller on the bench, it was a timeshare. Bottome line is that currently Spiller >>>> Davis

Doesn't the coach - rather than the GM - decide who starts?

No, the GM often does unless the coach is asking to be fired.For example, look at Vince Young last year.

Didn't the owner demand that Young start? As a Packer fan, I'd be shocked if TT ever told McCarthy who to start.

 

[FUBAR]

Doesn't the coach - rather than the GM - decide who starts?

No, the GM often does unless the coach is asking to be fired.For example, look at Vince Young last year.

Didn't the owner demand that Young start?

VY is a bad example. Adams, the owner, told Fisher to start the young QB after the elderly QB failed to win a game or even appear respectable. Fisher should have made that call himself before Bud got involved but he has a longer memory which includes 2008's debacle and he didn't want VY in the first place. So if VY succeeds, Adams looks like the genius, not Fisher here.FWIW I think Davis is more of a factor than people think but Hardesty will get the chance to succeed.

 

[doowain]

I'm gonna pile on the bandwagon here and say that you have Damian Williams too low. This draft class is full of super long shot maybe candidates at WR, and the fact that Williams is already a polished receiver who can come in and play immediately counts for a lot. His measurables may not have been earth shattering, but they are plenty good for a solid WR1.

I also have not noticed a lack of lateral agility in his play - can you point to some examples I can watch?

It's pretty hard to put into words and I might be totally nitpicking something that's really not a big deal, but I think he looks awkward when he changes directions. He's great in a straight line, but when he plants or changes directions his knees almost buckle inwards. People who have seen him play extensively might know what I'm talking about. You can sort of see it in this clip on the play starting at 0:45 when he catches the screen pass. He turns upfield, fakes inside, and then makes a hard fake to the outside, where his leg temporarily gives out and almost causes him to lose his balance.

You could've stopped after this sentence. It most certainly is nitpicking. You can either play WR or you can't. And Williams can. Draft as many "athletes" as you want. I'll take the football players.

 

[Bob Magaw]

"... People like to cite the famous examples of Tom Brady and Joe Montana to prove that NFL scouting departments don't know what they're doing, but in general very few of the game's elite QB prospects fall out of the first round. Here are the top 20 QBs on the current FBG dynasty rankings along with the round they were selected inrew Brees - 2Peyton Manning - 1 Aaron Rodgers - 1Philip Rivers - 1 Tony Romo - FATom Brady - 6Matt Schaub - 3Ben Roethlisberger - 1Jay Cutler - 1Matt Ryan - 1Matthew Stafford - 1Eli Manning - 1Joe Flacco - 1Donovan McNabb - 1Kevin Kolb - 2Carson Palmer - 1Mark Sanchez - 1Chad Henne - 2Vince Young - 1Josh Freeman - 170% of the players on this list were first round picks compared to 15% for second round picks and 5% for third round picks. Let's not pretend that draft position doesn't mean anything.

good post... going further, many of these were HIGH 1st rounders...Peyton Manning - 1.1Philip Rivers - 1.4 Ben Roethlisberger - 1.11Jay Cutler - 1.11Matt Ryan - 1.3Matthew Stafford - 1.1Eli Manning - 1.1Donovan McNabb - 1.2Carson Palmer - 1.1Mark Sanchez - 1.5Vince Young - 1.3

 

[Jeff Tefertiller]

Even further on the success rate of QBs drafted, here is an article I penned last offseason. I will update this summer.

 

[healthpellets]

Even further on the success rate of QBs drafted, here is an article I penned last offseason. I will update this summer.

have you written (or plan to write) anything on WRs and RBs?and nice article, btw.

 

[EBF]

You could've stopped after this sentence. It most certainly is nitpicking. You can either play WR or you can't. And Williams can. Draft as many "athletes" as you want. I'll take the football players.

Unfortunately it's not that simple. There are legions of college standouts who fail in the NFL because of athletic shortcomings.

 

[Mario Kart]

Just drafted Benn at 1.05 instead of Thomas, partially due to the QB situation as well as the RB situation. What, now, should I look out for in Benn?

Always a great read EBF.

 

[EBF]

Just drafted Benn at 1.05 instead of Thomas, partially due to the QB situation as well as the RB situation. What, now, should I look out for in Benn? Always a great read EBF.

Benn is not my favorite rookie this year, but he has promising physical skills and a wide open situation. I would say keep an eye on his preseason performance. He has a good chance to win a starting job because Stroughter and Brown are probably not ideal fits at WR1 or even WR2. If Benn can't beat them out right away then I would be a little concerned.Either way, you liked him enough to make the investment. Now you should give him 3-4 years to prove himself. The nice thing is that he'll be given every opportunity to do that because the Bucs really need help at WR.

 

[doowain]

You could've stopped after this sentence. It most certainly is nitpicking. You can either play WR or you can't. And Williams can. Draft as many "athletes" as you want. I'll take the football players.

Unfortunately it's not that simple. There are legions of college standouts who fail in the NFL because of athletic shortcomings.

And, vice versa, there are legions of top notch athletes who fail in the NFL due to football skill shortcomings.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

You could've stopped after this sentence. It most certainly is nitpicking. You can either play WR or you can't. And Williams can. Draft as many "athletes" as you want. I'll take the football players.

Unfortunately it's not that simple. There are legions of college standouts who fail in the NFL because of athletic shortcomings.

And, vice versa, there are legions of top notch athletes who fail in the NFL due to football skill shortcomings.

The debate you two are having seems to be centered on which is more critical - a minimum bar for athletic ability or a minimum bar for football skills. The answer is probably that each (taken separately) is necessary but not sufficient.

 

[doowain]

You could've stopped after this sentence. It most certainly is nitpicking. You can either play WR or you can't. And Williams can. Draft as many "athletes" as you want. I'll take the football players.

Unfortunately it's not that simple. There are legions of college standouts who fail in the NFL because of athletic shortcomings.

And, vice versa, there are legions of top notch athletes who fail in the NFL due to football skill shortcomings.

The debate you two are having seems to be centered on which is more critical - a minimum bar for athletic ability or a minimum bar for football skills. The answer is probably that each (taken separately) is necessary but not sufficient.

Actually, my point is....you can't have it one way or the other. The generalizations don't fly. You can't just draft athletes. Take Matt Jones for example. Freakish athlete. Take away his personal issues, he's still not a good WR IMO. He was an athlete who played WR. EBF hates on Spiller for being a "superior athlete who happens to play RB" (I don't agree with this, but that's his take). How can you bash Spiller for something that you praise another for?

 

[EBF]

You could've stopped after this sentence. It most certainly is nitpicking. You can either play WR or you can't. And Williams can. Draft as many "athletes" as you want. I'll take the football players.

Unfortunately it's not that simple. There are legions of college standouts who fail in the NFL because of athletic shortcomings.

And, vice versa, there are legions of top notch athletes who fail in the NFL due to football skill shortcomings.

The debate you two are having seems to be centered on which is more critical - a minimum bar for athletic ability or a minimum bar for football skills. The answer is probably that each (taken separately) is necessary but not sufficient.

Actually, my point is....you can't have it one way or the other. The generalizations don't fly. You can't just draft athletes. Take Matt Jones for example. Freakish athlete. Take away his personal issues, he's still not a good WR IMO. He was an athlete who played WR. EBF hates on Spiller for being a "superior athlete who happens to play RB" (I don't agree with this, but that's his take). How can you bash Spiller for something that you praise another for?

Not every athlete is identical. Dwight Howard and Chris Paul are both elite athletes. Only one of them can play center in the NBA.Just because Spiller is an elite athlete doesn't mean he has the "right" athletic skills for the RB position.

 

[EBF]

Almost all of my rookie drafts are done now. Even though rankings provide a decent picture of which prospects you like, I think the best indicator of your opinions is who you actually end up drafting because it's easy to say you like a prospect this or that much, but it's another thing entirely to actually pick him when you're on the clock.

Out of my seven money dynasty leagues that have already allocated this year's rookies, here are the guys I own in multiple leagues:

TE Fendi Onobun, Rams - 5

TE Jermaine Gresham, Bengals - 4

RB Jahvid Best, Lions - 4

WR Andre Roberts, Cardinals - 3

WR Freddie Barnes, Bears - 3

QB Sam Bradford, Rams - 2

TE Tony Moeaki, Chiefs - 2

TE Jimmy Graham, Saints - 2

RB Stafon Johnson, Titans - 2

I guess you could say that these are the guys who I believe offer the best value at their ADP. It's not quite that simple though. I wouldn't have taken in Gresham in so many leagues if not for the fact that many of my teams had TE needs and I play in a few leagues where TEs get 1.5-2 points per reception, making the position more valuable than usual. Onobun, Barnes, and Johnson appear on this list less because I think they're going to succeed and more because they cost nothing to acquire. Moreover, I would've drafted guys like Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas in more leagues if I had owned the appropriate picks (1.01 and 1.05 in most cases). Still, I would say this list is a pretty good representation of who "my guys" are in this draft class. I think Best, Roberts, and Graham might be the best values in rounds 1-3 respectively. Bradford and Gresham are on so many of teams because I've been taking them instead of second tier RB/WR prospects like Benn/BTate/Hardesty/GTate.

Speaking of which, here are the prominent players who I avoided completely:

RB CJ Spiller, Bills

WR Dexter McCluster, Chiefs

WR Arrelious Benn, Buccaneers

TE Rob Gronkowski, Patriots

QB Jimmy Clausen, Panthers

RB Toby Gerhart, Vikings

RB Ben Tate, Texans

RB Montario Hardesty, Browns

WR Golden Tate, Seahawks

TE Ed Dickson, Oregon

WR Damian Williams, Titans

WR Brandon LaFell, Panthers

WR Jordan Shipley, Bengals

QB Colt McCoy, Browns

WR Eric Decker, Broncos

WR Armanti Edwards, Panthers

WR Taylor Price, Patriots

WR Marcus Easley, Bills

WR Jacoby Ford, Raiders

RB Joe McKnight, Jets

TE Dennis Pitta, Ravens

There are a few guys on this list who I would probably take if the price was right, but in general I think this is a pretty accurate representation of my internal "avoid" list. The fact that I didn't roster these guys in any of my seven leagues means I almost certainly passed on all of them multiple times at or near their ADP.

 

[kremenull]

Almost all of my rookie drafts are done now. Even though rankings provide a decent picture of which prospects you like, I think the best indicator of your opinions is who you actually end up drafting because it's easy to say you like a prospect this or that much, but it's another thing entirely to actually pick him when you're on the clock. Out of my seven money dynasty leagues that have already allocated this year's rookies, here are the guys I own in multiple leagues:TE Fendi Onobun, Rams - 5TE Jermaine Gresham, Bengals - 4RB Jahvid Best, Lions - 4WR Andre Roberts, Cardinals - 3WR Freddie Barnes, Bears - 3QB Sam Bradford, Rams - 2TE Tony Moeaki, Chiefs - 2TE Jimmy Graham, Saints - 2RB Stafon Johnson, Titans - 2I guess you could say that these are the guys who I believe offer the best value at their ADP. It's not quite that simple though. I wouldn't have taken in Gresham in so many leagues if not for the fact that many of my teams had TE needs and I play in a few leagues where TEs get 1.5-2 points per reception, making the position more valuable than usual. Onobun, Barnes, and Johnson appear on this list less because I think they're going to succeed and more because they cost nothing to acquire. Moreover, I would've drafted guys like Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas in more leagues if I had owned the appropriate picks (1.01 and 1.05 in most cases). Still, I would say this list is a pretty good representation of who "my guys" are in this draft class. I think Best, Roberts, and Graham might be the best values in rounds 1-3 respectively. Bradford and Gresham are on so many of teams because I've been taking them instead of second tier RB/WR prospects like Benn/BTate/Hardesty/GTate. Speaking of which, here are the prominent players who I avoided completely:RB CJ Spiller, BillsWR Dexter McCluster, ChiefsWR Arrelious Benn, BuccaneersTE Rob Gronkowski, Patriots QB Jimmy Clausen, PanthersRB Toby Gerhart, VikingsRB Ben Tate, TexansRB Montario Hardesty, BrownsWR Golden Tate, SeahawksTE Ed Dickson, OregonWR Damian Williams, TitansWR Brandon LaFell, PanthersWR Jordan Shipley, BengalsQB Colt McCoy, BrownsWR Eric Decker, BroncosWR Armanti Edwards, PanthersWR Taylor Price, PatriotsWR Marcus Easley, BillsWR Jacoby Ford, RaidersRB Joe McKnight, JetsTE Dennis Pitta, RavensThere are a few guys on this list who I would probably take if the price was right, but in general I think this is a pretty accurate representation of my internal "avoid" list. The fact that I didn't roster these guys in any of my seven leagues means I almost certainly passed on all of them multiple times at or near their ADP.

That's a very lengthy avoid list. With so many guys on that list who have been drafted at least fairly high by their NFL teams, I think it's a good bet to say that you will have missed out on a good number of quality players, fantasy or otherwise. But to each his own, I just think that you have a very narrow pool of prospects that leaves little room for error on your targets. Spiller is a lock for stardom!