EBF
Footballguy
It's that time of the year again. I didn't know if I'd do any rankings this year because I've been watching less football than in the past, but I've still been keeping close tabs on the top prospects and I couldn't resist the temptation to get some more discussion started. The next few months will be important with Senior Bowl practices, the combine, and pro days coming up. Those will change the draft landscape and introduce some less heralded names who could figure into the final rankings.
This is a weird year because so many of the top underclassmen decided to return. Andrew Luck was my clear cut #1 QB. Justin Blackmon very well could've been my #1 WR. LaMichael James and Michael Floyd were both slated to be in my overall top 10. With so many devastating losses, the 2011 draft now looks like one of the weakest in recent memory. The real winners here are people who have 2011 dev picks or 2012 rookie picks. Those gained some value today.
Nevertheless, there are still a few elite prospects and a lot of quality depth guys who could become NFL contributors. Here's an early stab at ranking them for PPR dynasty purposes. I cut the list short from my usual 24 primarily because it's early in the process and my rankings are pretty fluid once you get beyond 20.
Tier One
1. RB Mark Ingram, Alabama
There really isn't much to say about Ingram that hasn't already been said elsewhere. The 2009 Heisman winner has a good combination of power, burst, and vision that should see him drafted somewhere in the top 30 picks come April. People will cite his lack of explosive speed as a negative, but he broke plenty of big plays for the Tide and offers plenty of speed to play RB in the NFL. While he might not be the flashiest player around, I don't see any real warts to his game. These 220+ pound do-everything backs typically work well in the NFL. I expect Ingram to be immediately effective for whichever NFL team drafts him and I think he'll be the top pick from this draft class for redraft and dynasty purposes for 2011 and 2012. His production should fall somewhere in the range between the Bengals version of Cedric Benson and Frank Gore. At worst a quality RB2. At best a solid RB1.
2. WR AJ Green, Georgia
Some people think Green is the best NFL WR prospect since *insert Hall of Fame WR here*. While I don't think he's as good as the likes of Dez Bryant or Calvin Johnson, I do think he's a solid first round receiver prospect worthy of a top 15 NFL draft pick. Green is tall and athletic with sticky hands and a natural ability to make difficult catches look easy. The primary question mark for me is strength. Green is tall, but he's lanky and thin. His lack of strength and bulk could present problems against physical NFL corners, especially if he has difficulty beating them with sheer speed. He's not laterally quick or an explosive open field runner. He's more of a catch-and-fall receiver. I think his game has shades of Sidney Rice and Reggie Wayne. He may not be the most overwhelming athlete on the field, but his height and his ability to simply go up and catch the ball should allow him to be successful at the next level. I think Green is overrated, but still pretty good.
3. WR Julio Jones, Alabama
Entering the season I thought Julio was one of the most overrated skill position players in the country, but he won me over with a number of impressive performances. Much was expected of Jones when he came to Alabama as one of the most highly rated recruits in the nation. He showed flashes of brilliance in his first two seasons before peaking as a junior with 78 catches for 1133 yards. Jones has the requisite combination of height, strength, speed, and quickness to be a number one receiver in the NFL. Physically, he resembles Hakeem Nicks. Both are bigger receivers who have enough strength to overpower cornerbacks and enough quickness/speed to make plays after the catch. Jones had previously struggled with his hands and consistency. He had a tendency to disappear for long stretches of time, but seemed to finally shed the "enigma" label and become a consistent every-week presence this season. I think he's right up there in a dogfight with Green for the title of best WR in this class. Green has the edge in hands and consistency, but Julio is a better athlete and he might have a higher ceiling.
Tier Two
4. RB Dion Lewis, Pittsburgh
I have liked Lewis since the first time I saw him play. Short, stocky RBs who have an explosive initial burst and the ability to seamlessly weave together numerous cuts tend to do well in the NFL. Maurice Drew, Ahmad Bradshaw, and Ray Rice have shown that backs like Lewis can thrive in the pro game. Skeptics will cite his lack of size, but from what I can see he's plenty big and strong. He's just short. That hasn't mattered for the likes of Rice and Bradshaw, so I don't see it as any kind of impediment for Lewis. He might not be 5'10"+, but he runs low with a strong base and he's difficult to get a clean hit on because he's so shifty. Having said that, there are some legitimate concerns with Lewis. He doesn't appear to have blazing long speed and will probably be caught from behind on many occasions when other RBs would score. Concerns about size are overblown, but even "small" NFL RBs like Bradshaw, Rice, MJD, and Westbrook managed to tip the scales at ~200 pounds at the combine. I'd like to see Lewis do the same. Anything less than that will increase my fears of him becoming nothing more than a committee back. Assuming that he checks in at a decent weight and performs reasonably well in workouts, I don't see any reason why he can't emerge from the 2nd-4th round range of the NFL draft and become a valuable asset like Rice and Drew before him. He's probably not quite as good as those guys, but I think he's similar in quality to Bradshaw. That's about the kind of career I expect from him.
5. RB Mikel LeShoure, Illions
LeShoure lead the Big Ten in yards per carry in 2009 before breaking out with a monster junior season in 2010. With a listed height/weight of 6'1" 230 pounds, LeShoure has the kind of frame that makes him an easy projection for a workhorse role at the next level. He has a nice combination of power and speed. I wouldn't describe him as an elusive back because I think he's a little bit stiff in the hips. I've never seen him stick his foot in the ground and make an insane cut across his body when running at a high speed. He relies more on sheer speed and power, opting to truck tacklers who get in his path. That's not to say he's totally immobile though. He can make 45 degree slashing cuts in the open field and has pretty quick feet for a big man. I don't consider him an elite talent, but he performed tremendously on an otherwise mediocre college team and possesses enough size and athleticism to be effective at the next level. I rate him as a 2nd-3rd round talent and I think much of his value will hinge on situation. He's not a player that I'd sit on for 2-3 years like Jonathan Stewart. I don't have that much faith in his ability, but if he goes to a team like Washington or Green Bay that needs this kind of back then he could be an instant FF starter. I have previously suggested that he's sort of a cross between Rashard Mendenhall and Michael Bush. Another FBG poster suggested Arian Foster as a comparison. I think that's fairly accurate.
6. WR Jonathan Baldwin, Pittsburgh
Baldwin is a big, strong target who has shown the flashes of athleticism to make you think he could potentially be a #1 WR at the next level. He's listed at a massive 6'5" 230, but he's not just some big slug. He has good body control and can make impressive catches on errant passes. He had a great sophomore season and backed it up with a modest, but respectable junior campaign before declaring for the draft. He figures to benefit the most from the absence of Justin Blackmon and Michael Floyd in this group. It can be argued that those players are superior versions of Baldwin. With them out of the way, FF teams and NFL teams in search of a king-sized possession WR might have to settle on the enigmatic ex-Pitt star. Baldwin's first and most major red flag is his character. He's plain and simply known to be a pain in the ###. He threw his whole team under the bus after the 2010 season with negative comments to the press and has always been known as a volatile personality who could struggle to stay out of trouble and stay focused. There are also questions about his speed. No one will ever confused Baldwin for Usain Bolt. Even with these shortcomings, Baldwin has been a productive college player and demonstrates promising potential for the pro game. He's the type of guy that you'd rather pick in the 10-12 range of rookie drafts than in the top 6, but with the lack of depth this year, he'll go higher by default.
7. RB Daniel Thomas, Kansas State
Thomas blazed out of the gates this season with 552 rushing yards in his first three games. He cooled off considerably after that torrid start, but still finished among the NCAA rushing leaders with 1585 yards. Few running backs have accumulated more yards over the past two seasons than Thomas, a 6'2" 228 pound runner who will soon be showing his wares at the Senior Bowl. Thomas is an unconventional RB in the sense that he's a little bit taller and more upright than the usual elite back. Nevertheless, he moves fluidly and shows the necessary footwork to play the position at the NFL level. For better or worse, Thomas reminds me of Matt Forte. Both are tall, productive backs who offer decent power and surprising agility. It's no secret that I don't think Forte is an elite pro RB, but he has carved out a decent career for himself with his versatility and B-grade running skills. I think Thomas offers similar potential. He's not going to become one of the very best in the league, but he's a solid back capable of acquitting himself well if given the opportunity.
Tier Three
8. RB Ryan Williams, Virginia Tech
Williams could be one of the boom-or-bust players in this draft. He catapulted into the picture during the 2009 season by rushing for 1655 yards after teammate Darren Evans was lost for the year to serious injury. At his best, Williams is an explosive and shifty back whose lightning quick burst leaves defenders grasping at air. Unfortunately, we didn't see much of that this season. Williams struggled with injuries and only managed to accumulate 477 rushing yards in a time share with Evans and sophomore David Wilson. Some onlookers have compared Ryan Williams to NFL RB DeAngelo Williams, but I don't think he's that good. He doesn't have the same lower body strength or power. I felt he was overrated even after last season when he was a trendy pick as the best draft-eligible RB for 2011. Now that he's coming off a mediocre season in which he struggled to make an impact, my opinion hasn't changed. I think Williams benefited from a friendly system in 2009 and I'm not convinced that he's good enough to start on Sundays. Nevertheless, he does have compelling burst/quickness and the fact that he was allegedly given a 1st-2nd round grade by the NFL's draft advisory commitee means I can't ignore his potential.
9. QB Cam Newton, Auburn
Newton hasn't officially declared for the NFL draft and could certainly use another year of seasoning before tackling the pro game, but if there's any truth to the rumors about Auburn's recruiting misconduct then Newton might be forced to bail in order to avoid suspension in 2011. My friend who generally has a good read on QB prospects has suggested that Newton will need at least three years of learning before he'll be ready to play at the NFL level. That might be a bit extreme, but the central point is valid. Newton is a RAW prospect with minimal experience who dominated in college almost solely on the basis of sheer talent. When faced with an NFL defense featuring linebackers who can match him step for step and defensive backs who will provide only the smallest windows for pass placement, Newton could struggle. Nevertheless, his potential it too compelling to overlook. He's bigger and stronger than Vince Young with similar running skills and an arm that's reminiscent of Mike Vick's. If it's only his first season as a starter and he's already this good, it's scary to think of what he might become with more experience. Newton is a project who warrants being overdrafted by the NFL and by FF teams because of his upside. He could be something special 2-3 years down the road, but will most likely be forced into starting duty long before he's ready.
10. RB Noel Devine, West Virginia
Devine was a legend before he even stepped foot on West Virginia's campus thanks to his high school highlight videos, which garnered a lot of buzz from college football fans. He mostly lived up to the hype in his four seasons at West Virginia, making an immediate impact as a true freshman before topping the 1200 yard mark in 2008 and 2009. Devine is a small running back who makes up for his lack of size with electric open field moves. He has an unconventional frame for the RB position in the NFL, but guys like Chris Johnson and Jamaal Charles have provided a model for how to effectively use this type of back in the pro game. Devine's skills are reminiscent of those two, but he's not as fast and he might be even smaller. His listed size of 5'8" 180 makes him undersized even in comparison to smaller NFL backs like Charles and Johnson. This makes it difficult to project his role at the next level. He might simply be too small to play RB in the NFL, but he has dynamic talent that warrants a role of the dice at some point in your rookie draft.
11. QB Ryan Mallett, Arkansas
I don't think Mallett is going to be an elite NFL QB. Frankly, he doesn't seem very smart and has shown a knack for making bad mistakes at critical junctures of games. That doesn't mean he can't be an asset in FF leagues though. The NFL is starved for quarterbacks and even mediocrities like Derek Anderson and Alex Smith have received numerous starting opportunities simply because there's no one better. So even if Mallett never wins anything in his NFL career, it's totally conceivable that he could hang around the league for 4-5 years or maybe more as a starter. I think his overall game is pretty comparable to that of Daunte Culpepper. Culpepper was not an elite NFL QB, but that didn't stop him from having some elite statistical seasons. Like Culpepper, Mallett is a big, tall passer with a cannon for an arm. Even though his crucial mistakes and interceptions have received considerable attention, his overall statistical performance has been strong. He has thrown for almost 7500 yards in the past two seasons with a total of 62 TDs against 19 INTs. His yards per attempt average has been excellent (> 9 in each of the past two years) and his completion percentage improved considerably from 2009 to 2010. So even though I'm skeptical about Mallett's chances of becoming a top pro QB, some team will probably take him in the first round of the NFL draft and he might actually be the safest FF pick from his tier. He may not be a great leader, but he can certainly chuck the ball.
12. RB Shane Vereen, California
Vereen has been a solid player for the past three years at Cal, capping his career with a solid junior season of 1167 rushing yards in just 12 games. Vereen is a classic example of a back who does everything well, but doesn't stand out in any one department. He's a B-grade player in terms of speed, size, power, and quickness. Will that be enough to achieve success in the NFL? I think a lot will depend on his situation. Vereen isn't an ideal starting option at the next level, but he's the kind of player who can perform admirably if given an extended opportunity. Basically, he'll be worth a look if he lands on a team with a shaky RB situation because he's talented enough to thrive. Otherwise he probably projects as backup with minimal starting potential barring injury.
13. QB Blaine Gabbert, Missouri
I'm familiar with Gabbert, but have scarcely seen him play, so I don't feel very qualified to comment in depth on his pro potential. What I do know is that he has declared for the NFL draft and that some pundits like ESPN's Todd McShay project him as a first round talent. Gabbert's stats don't exactly scream superstar. He had a nice sophomore campaign, but regressed as a junior, completing 63% of his passes at just 6.7 yards per attempt for 16 TDs against 9 INTs. There's nothing about him that suggests an elite talent. Nevertheless, his overall college stats are respectable and he has the height/weight/arm that NFL teams want in a starter. Guys like Joe Flacco and Josh Freeman have shown that an under-the-radar QB can come in and be successful, but there's no guarantee that Gabbert is of the same caliber. I still think he's worth a look in this range if he becomes a first round pick. If some NFL team is willing to make such a strong commitment to his future then FF owners shouldn't hesitate to do the same in lieu of better options here.
14. RB JacQuizz Rodgers, Oregon State
Quizz was nothing if not consistent throughout his time at Oregon State. He logged three straight 1000+ yard rushing seasons before bolting to the NFL. Like Dion Lewis, Quizz is a shorter back who's often labeled as "small" even though he's very strong for his height. He demonstrates a lot of the traits that you want in a pro runner, including fluid hips and a good initial burst to make people miss in the open field. He has pretty good long speed and shows surprising power when lowering his shoulders. However, he's not quite as stocky as Lewis and might simply be too short/light to become anything more than a bit player in the NFL. He doesn't have the burst/moves of Darren Sproles and is essentially a 5'7" power back. Like Lewis, he could improve his stock tremendously by weighing in at 200+ pounds at the combine. Anything less than that will leave me skeptical about his ability to shoulder a large workload in the NFL. Quizz was a great college player, but his pro potential might be limited by his lack of top flight measurables.
Tier Four
15. WR DeAndre Brown, Southern Miss
There are a lot of promising second tier receivers in this draft. You could make a case for any number of players in this spot, but with no sure things left on the board I would be inclined to gamble on upside. Of all the 2nd-3rd tier receivers in this draft class, DeAndre Brown seems like one of the few with a real chance at stardom. Brown burst onto the scene as a true freshman with 1117 receiving yards before suffering a grisly leg break in his team's bowl game. Since then, Brown has struggled to regain his form. He had a mediocre season in 2009 and spent much of this year on the sidelines nursing injuries. Nevertheless, at 6'6" 239 with good straight line speed and one elite season to his credit, Brown presents just the kind of compelling physical specimen who could emerge from relative obscurity to become a surprise at the next level. Just realize that the potential for boom is dwarfed by the potential for bust. Brown has been hugely inconsistent in college and even though his height is often cited as a positive attribute, many tall receivers struggle with quickness/route running.
16. WR Leonard Hankerson, Miami
Hankerson used all four years of eligibility at Miami and improved every single season, culminating in a 1156 yard senior year. Listed at 6'3" 205, Hankerson has a combination of size/speed in line with what teams want from a #1 target. It wouldn't be accurate to describe his college career as dominant, but he became a solid starter and showed the ability to get downfield and get under a deep pass. He has received an invitation to the Senior Bowl, so hopefully we'll be seeing more of him in the next few weeks. Right now he looks like the best senior WR in the draft and a player who could have a starting future in the NFL, even if it's not as a #1 target.
17. WR Titus Young, Boise State
I have been a fan of Young's game for years. Some people are likely to prefer teammate Austin Pettis. Pettis is a good possession WR, but in my opinion he lacks the special qualities needed to stand out in the NFL. Young is by no means a lock for stardom either, but his explosive speed and quickness give him a higher ceiling. Young is like a lesser version of DeSean Jackson. He's rail thin, relying on superior explosiveness to generate separation and create yards. Young terrorized his lower level of competition during the past two seasons, topping the 1000 yard mark each year while also making a major impact on special teams. It's hard to say whether he's closer to Roscoe Parrish than DeSean Jackson, but some team will pick him in the top 100-120 picks and give him the opportunity to develop into a contributor at WR while he handles some return duties.
18. TE Kyle Rudolph, Notre Dame
I only watched one of Rudolph's games this year and it wasn't a good day for him. The Stanford defense schemed against him and completely took him out of the game. I can't help but feel that he's a bit overrated. He's widely considered a potential first round pick even though his college stats are anything but impressive. In the few times I've made a point of watching him, he hasn't shown impressive speed and quickness. Nevertheless, you have to put some stock into what the scouts say. I discounted Rob Gronkowski for similar reasons last season even though he was considered a 1st round talent by a lot of professional evaluators. He seemed to justify the hype with his strong rookie season. So even though I have doubts about Rudolph and don't consider him on par with elite TE prospects of the past, at this point in the draft he's probably worth a shot.
19. TE Lance Kendricks, Wisconsin
Kendricks looked like the best player on the field for the Badgers in the Rose Bowl against TCU. He has a strong build and runs well for a bigger target. The overall impression I got was of a B-grade Kellen Winslow who has all the physical and football attributes needed to become an average starter in the NFL. That's not exactly an exciting prognosis, but in a down year for skill talent in the NFL draft, teams in need of a starting TE could do a lot worse. 2-3 years from now Kendricks could be a top 10-15 TE.
20. WR Jerrel Jernigan, Troy
I have never seen Jernigan play apart from watching some YouTube highlights. This ranking is based mostly on his reputation. Jernigan has received an invitation to the Senior Bowl and a lot of draft pundits consider him a 1st-2nd round NFL draft pick. In the few clips that I've seen, he shows a compelling combination of speed/quickness, body control, and hands. He was a key player for Troy and looks like he could be one of the best sleeper picks in this draft. I think he's a strong candidate to move up this list between now and April. Hopefully we'll be seeing/hearing more of him from Mobile in the coming weeks.
OTHERS
QB Jake Locker, Washington - Could be worth a shot in the 15-20 range. Badly overhyped though.
QB Christian Ponder, Florid State - Tumbled down the charts after a poor senior season.
QB Andy Dalton, TCU - Senior Bowl invitee.
QB Ricky Stanzi, Iowa - Senior Bowl invitee.
QB Pat Devlin, Delaware - Trendy small school pick entering the season.
RB Kendall Hunter, Oklahoma State - Dominant stats packed in a small frame. Might have to bump him up with the likes of Quizz/Devine.
RB Delone Carter, Syracuse - One of my top sleepers of the past couple years had a good season and should get drafted.
RB Chad Spann, Northern Illinois - Another little guy with impressive stats.
RB Darren Evans, Virginia Tech - Solid backup type with decent size, but no special qualities.
RB DeMarco Murray, Oklahoma - One of the most overrated prospects in the country, IMO.
RB Adam Robinson, ex-Iowa - Legal troubles.
RB John Clay, Wisconsin - Tub of goo.
RB Allen Bradford, USC - Good 5th-6th round pick with some upside. At worst a decent backup.
RB Jay Finley, Baylor - Big stats this year. Don't know anything about him.
RB Anthony Allen, Georgia Tech - Yet another draftable Tech RB?
WR Tyrod Taylor, Virginia Tech - Shows great promise as a WR prospect if he can catch the ball. Elusive.
WR Vincent Brown, SDSU - Great production over the past few years. Decent height and smooth in a straight line.
WR Jeremy Kerley, TCU - Looks the part, but has modest stats. Senior Bowl invitee.
WR Torrey Smith, Maryland - Productive speedster leaving school early.
WR Tandon Doss, Indana - Early entry junior who has been modestly hyped since last year. I've never seen him play.
WR Greg Little, North Carolina - Mid round prospect missed the entire season.
WR Austin Pettis, Boise State - Productive possession receiver with decent size.
WR Dwayne Harris, East Carolina - Decent YAC guy. Not sure he has starter potential. Kind of a poor man's Boldin.
WR Randall Cobb, Kentucky - Good production. Hasn't declared for the draft yet though.
WR Jeff Fuller, Texas A&M - Big target with good stats. Hasn't decided on draft intentions yet.
WR Jordan White, Western Michigan - Big senior season. Not sure if he has real NFL potential.
WR Dwight Dasher, Middle Tennessee State - Another running QB who looks to me like he might be able to play WR.
WR Matt Szczur, Villanova - Baseball player. Somewhere between Eric Decker and Wes Welker in terms of style. Doesn't look that great to me. Senior Bowl invitee.
WR Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, ex-Iowa - Career went up in smoke...
This is a weird year because so many of the top underclassmen decided to return. Andrew Luck was my clear cut #1 QB. Justin Blackmon very well could've been my #1 WR. LaMichael James and Michael Floyd were both slated to be in my overall top 10. With so many devastating losses, the 2011 draft now looks like one of the weakest in recent memory. The real winners here are people who have 2011 dev picks or 2012 rookie picks. Those gained some value today.
Nevertheless, there are still a few elite prospects and a lot of quality depth guys who could become NFL contributors. Here's an early stab at ranking them for PPR dynasty purposes. I cut the list short from my usual 24 primarily because it's early in the process and my rankings are pretty fluid once you get beyond 20.
Tier One
1. RB Mark Ingram, Alabama
There really isn't much to say about Ingram that hasn't already been said elsewhere. The 2009 Heisman winner has a good combination of power, burst, and vision that should see him drafted somewhere in the top 30 picks come April. People will cite his lack of explosive speed as a negative, but he broke plenty of big plays for the Tide and offers plenty of speed to play RB in the NFL. While he might not be the flashiest player around, I don't see any real warts to his game. These 220+ pound do-everything backs typically work well in the NFL. I expect Ingram to be immediately effective for whichever NFL team drafts him and I think he'll be the top pick from this draft class for redraft and dynasty purposes for 2011 and 2012. His production should fall somewhere in the range between the Bengals version of Cedric Benson and Frank Gore. At worst a quality RB2. At best a solid RB1.
2. WR AJ Green, Georgia
Some people think Green is the best NFL WR prospect since *insert Hall of Fame WR here*. While I don't think he's as good as the likes of Dez Bryant or Calvin Johnson, I do think he's a solid first round receiver prospect worthy of a top 15 NFL draft pick. Green is tall and athletic with sticky hands and a natural ability to make difficult catches look easy. The primary question mark for me is strength. Green is tall, but he's lanky and thin. His lack of strength and bulk could present problems against physical NFL corners, especially if he has difficulty beating them with sheer speed. He's not laterally quick or an explosive open field runner. He's more of a catch-and-fall receiver. I think his game has shades of Sidney Rice and Reggie Wayne. He may not be the most overwhelming athlete on the field, but his height and his ability to simply go up and catch the ball should allow him to be successful at the next level. I think Green is overrated, but still pretty good.
3. WR Julio Jones, Alabama
Entering the season I thought Julio was one of the most overrated skill position players in the country, but he won me over with a number of impressive performances. Much was expected of Jones when he came to Alabama as one of the most highly rated recruits in the nation. He showed flashes of brilliance in his first two seasons before peaking as a junior with 78 catches for 1133 yards. Jones has the requisite combination of height, strength, speed, and quickness to be a number one receiver in the NFL. Physically, he resembles Hakeem Nicks. Both are bigger receivers who have enough strength to overpower cornerbacks and enough quickness/speed to make plays after the catch. Jones had previously struggled with his hands and consistency. He had a tendency to disappear for long stretches of time, but seemed to finally shed the "enigma" label and become a consistent every-week presence this season. I think he's right up there in a dogfight with Green for the title of best WR in this class. Green has the edge in hands and consistency, but Julio is a better athlete and he might have a higher ceiling.
Tier Two
4. RB Dion Lewis, Pittsburgh
I have liked Lewis since the first time I saw him play. Short, stocky RBs who have an explosive initial burst and the ability to seamlessly weave together numerous cuts tend to do well in the NFL. Maurice Drew, Ahmad Bradshaw, and Ray Rice have shown that backs like Lewis can thrive in the pro game. Skeptics will cite his lack of size, but from what I can see he's plenty big and strong. He's just short. That hasn't mattered for the likes of Rice and Bradshaw, so I don't see it as any kind of impediment for Lewis. He might not be 5'10"+, but he runs low with a strong base and he's difficult to get a clean hit on because he's so shifty. Having said that, there are some legitimate concerns with Lewis. He doesn't appear to have blazing long speed and will probably be caught from behind on many occasions when other RBs would score. Concerns about size are overblown, but even "small" NFL RBs like Bradshaw, Rice, MJD, and Westbrook managed to tip the scales at ~200 pounds at the combine. I'd like to see Lewis do the same. Anything less than that will increase my fears of him becoming nothing more than a committee back. Assuming that he checks in at a decent weight and performs reasonably well in workouts, I don't see any reason why he can't emerge from the 2nd-4th round range of the NFL draft and become a valuable asset like Rice and Drew before him. He's probably not quite as good as those guys, but I think he's similar in quality to Bradshaw. That's about the kind of career I expect from him.
5. RB Mikel LeShoure, Illions
LeShoure lead the Big Ten in yards per carry in 2009 before breaking out with a monster junior season in 2010. With a listed height/weight of 6'1" 230 pounds, LeShoure has the kind of frame that makes him an easy projection for a workhorse role at the next level. He has a nice combination of power and speed. I wouldn't describe him as an elusive back because I think he's a little bit stiff in the hips. I've never seen him stick his foot in the ground and make an insane cut across his body when running at a high speed. He relies more on sheer speed and power, opting to truck tacklers who get in his path. That's not to say he's totally immobile though. He can make 45 degree slashing cuts in the open field and has pretty quick feet for a big man. I don't consider him an elite talent, but he performed tremendously on an otherwise mediocre college team and possesses enough size and athleticism to be effective at the next level. I rate him as a 2nd-3rd round talent and I think much of his value will hinge on situation. He's not a player that I'd sit on for 2-3 years like Jonathan Stewart. I don't have that much faith in his ability, but if he goes to a team like Washington or Green Bay that needs this kind of back then he could be an instant FF starter. I have previously suggested that he's sort of a cross between Rashard Mendenhall and Michael Bush. Another FBG poster suggested Arian Foster as a comparison. I think that's fairly accurate.
6. WR Jonathan Baldwin, Pittsburgh
Baldwin is a big, strong target who has shown the flashes of athleticism to make you think he could potentially be a #1 WR at the next level. He's listed at a massive 6'5" 230, but he's not just some big slug. He has good body control and can make impressive catches on errant passes. He had a great sophomore season and backed it up with a modest, but respectable junior campaign before declaring for the draft. He figures to benefit the most from the absence of Justin Blackmon and Michael Floyd in this group. It can be argued that those players are superior versions of Baldwin. With them out of the way, FF teams and NFL teams in search of a king-sized possession WR might have to settle on the enigmatic ex-Pitt star. Baldwin's first and most major red flag is his character. He's plain and simply known to be a pain in the ###. He threw his whole team under the bus after the 2010 season with negative comments to the press and has always been known as a volatile personality who could struggle to stay out of trouble and stay focused. There are also questions about his speed. No one will ever confused Baldwin for Usain Bolt. Even with these shortcomings, Baldwin has been a productive college player and demonstrates promising potential for the pro game. He's the type of guy that you'd rather pick in the 10-12 range of rookie drafts than in the top 6, but with the lack of depth this year, he'll go higher by default.
7. RB Daniel Thomas, Kansas State
Thomas blazed out of the gates this season with 552 rushing yards in his first three games. He cooled off considerably after that torrid start, but still finished among the NCAA rushing leaders with 1585 yards. Few running backs have accumulated more yards over the past two seasons than Thomas, a 6'2" 228 pound runner who will soon be showing his wares at the Senior Bowl. Thomas is an unconventional RB in the sense that he's a little bit taller and more upright than the usual elite back. Nevertheless, he moves fluidly and shows the necessary footwork to play the position at the NFL level. For better or worse, Thomas reminds me of Matt Forte. Both are tall, productive backs who offer decent power and surprising agility. It's no secret that I don't think Forte is an elite pro RB, but he has carved out a decent career for himself with his versatility and B-grade running skills. I think Thomas offers similar potential. He's not going to become one of the very best in the league, but he's a solid back capable of acquitting himself well if given the opportunity.
Tier Three
8. RB Ryan Williams, Virginia Tech
Williams could be one of the boom-or-bust players in this draft. He catapulted into the picture during the 2009 season by rushing for 1655 yards after teammate Darren Evans was lost for the year to serious injury. At his best, Williams is an explosive and shifty back whose lightning quick burst leaves defenders grasping at air. Unfortunately, we didn't see much of that this season. Williams struggled with injuries and only managed to accumulate 477 rushing yards in a time share with Evans and sophomore David Wilson. Some onlookers have compared Ryan Williams to NFL RB DeAngelo Williams, but I don't think he's that good. He doesn't have the same lower body strength or power. I felt he was overrated even after last season when he was a trendy pick as the best draft-eligible RB for 2011. Now that he's coming off a mediocre season in which he struggled to make an impact, my opinion hasn't changed. I think Williams benefited from a friendly system in 2009 and I'm not convinced that he's good enough to start on Sundays. Nevertheless, he does have compelling burst/quickness and the fact that he was allegedly given a 1st-2nd round grade by the NFL's draft advisory commitee means I can't ignore his potential.
9. QB Cam Newton, Auburn
Newton hasn't officially declared for the NFL draft and could certainly use another year of seasoning before tackling the pro game, but if there's any truth to the rumors about Auburn's recruiting misconduct then Newton might be forced to bail in order to avoid suspension in 2011. My friend who generally has a good read on QB prospects has suggested that Newton will need at least three years of learning before he'll be ready to play at the NFL level. That might be a bit extreme, but the central point is valid. Newton is a RAW prospect with minimal experience who dominated in college almost solely on the basis of sheer talent. When faced with an NFL defense featuring linebackers who can match him step for step and defensive backs who will provide only the smallest windows for pass placement, Newton could struggle. Nevertheless, his potential it too compelling to overlook. He's bigger and stronger than Vince Young with similar running skills and an arm that's reminiscent of Mike Vick's. If it's only his first season as a starter and he's already this good, it's scary to think of what he might become with more experience. Newton is a project who warrants being overdrafted by the NFL and by FF teams because of his upside. He could be something special 2-3 years down the road, but will most likely be forced into starting duty long before he's ready.
10. RB Noel Devine, West Virginia
Devine was a legend before he even stepped foot on West Virginia's campus thanks to his high school highlight videos, which garnered a lot of buzz from college football fans. He mostly lived up to the hype in his four seasons at West Virginia, making an immediate impact as a true freshman before topping the 1200 yard mark in 2008 and 2009. Devine is a small running back who makes up for his lack of size with electric open field moves. He has an unconventional frame for the RB position in the NFL, but guys like Chris Johnson and Jamaal Charles have provided a model for how to effectively use this type of back in the pro game. Devine's skills are reminiscent of those two, but he's not as fast and he might be even smaller. His listed size of 5'8" 180 makes him undersized even in comparison to smaller NFL backs like Charles and Johnson. This makes it difficult to project his role at the next level. He might simply be too small to play RB in the NFL, but he has dynamic talent that warrants a role of the dice at some point in your rookie draft.
11. QB Ryan Mallett, Arkansas
I don't think Mallett is going to be an elite NFL QB. Frankly, he doesn't seem very smart and has shown a knack for making bad mistakes at critical junctures of games. That doesn't mean he can't be an asset in FF leagues though. The NFL is starved for quarterbacks and even mediocrities like Derek Anderson and Alex Smith have received numerous starting opportunities simply because there's no one better. So even if Mallett never wins anything in his NFL career, it's totally conceivable that he could hang around the league for 4-5 years or maybe more as a starter. I think his overall game is pretty comparable to that of Daunte Culpepper. Culpepper was not an elite NFL QB, but that didn't stop him from having some elite statistical seasons. Like Culpepper, Mallett is a big, tall passer with a cannon for an arm. Even though his crucial mistakes and interceptions have received considerable attention, his overall statistical performance has been strong. He has thrown for almost 7500 yards in the past two seasons with a total of 62 TDs against 19 INTs. His yards per attempt average has been excellent (> 9 in each of the past two years) and his completion percentage improved considerably from 2009 to 2010. So even though I'm skeptical about Mallett's chances of becoming a top pro QB, some team will probably take him in the first round of the NFL draft and he might actually be the safest FF pick from his tier. He may not be a great leader, but he can certainly chuck the ball.
12. RB Shane Vereen, California
Vereen has been a solid player for the past three years at Cal, capping his career with a solid junior season of 1167 rushing yards in just 12 games. Vereen is a classic example of a back who does everything well, but doesn't stand out in any one department. He's a B-grade player in terms of speed, size, power, and quickness. Will that be enough to achieve success in the NFL? I think a lot will depend on his situation. Vereen isn't an ideal starting option at the next level, but he's the kind of player who can perform admirably if given an extended opportunity. Basically, he'll be worth a look if he lands on a team with a shaky RB situation because he's talented enough to thrive. Otherwise he probably projects as backup with minimal starting potential barring injury.
13. QB Blaine Gabbert, Missouri
I'm familiar with Gabbert, but have scarcely seen him play, so I don't feel very qualified to comment in depth on his pro potential. What I do know is that he has declared for the NFL draft and that some pundits like ESPN's Todd McShay project him as a first round talent. Gabbert's stats don't exactly scream superstar. He had a nice sophomore campaign, but regressed as a junior, completing 63% of his passes at just 6.7 yards per attempt for 16 TDs against 9 INTs. There's nothing about him that suggests an elite talent. Nevertheless, his overall college stats are respectable and he has the height/weight/arm that NFL teams want in a starter. Guys like Joe Flacco and Josh Freeman have shown that an under-the-radar QB can come in and be successful, but there's no guarantee that Gabbert is of the same caliber. I still think he's worth a look in this range if he becomes a first round pick. If some NFL team is willing to make such a strong commitment to his future then FF owners shouldn't hesitate to do the same in lieu of better options here.
14. RB JacQuizz Rodgers, Oregon State
Quizz was nothing if not consistent throughout his time at Oregon State. He logged three straight 1000+ yard rushing seasons before bolting to the NFL. Like Dion Lewis, Quizz is a shorter back who's often labeled as "small" even though he's very strong for his height. He demonstrates a lot of the traits that you want in a pro runner, including fluid hips and a good initial burst to make people miss in the open field. He has pretty good long speed and shows surprising power when lowering his shoulders. However, he's not quite as stocky as Lewis and might simply be too short/light to become anything more than a bit player in the NFL. He doesn't have the burst/moves of Darren Sproles and is essentially a 5'7" power back. Like Lewis, he could improve his stock tremendously by weighing in at 200+ pounds at the combine. Anything less than that will leave me skeptical about his ability to shoulder a large workload in the NFL. Quizz was a great college player, but his pro potential might be limited by his lack of top flight measurables.
Tier Four
15. WR DeAndre Brown, Southern Miss
There are a lot of promising second tier receivers in this draft. You could make a case for any number of players in this spot, but with no sure things left on the board I would be inclined to gamble on upside. Of all the 2nd-3rd tier receivers in this draft class, DeAndre Brown seems like one of the few with a real chance at stardom. Brown burst onto the scene as a true freshman with 1117 receiving yards before suffering a grisly leg break in his team's bowl game. Since then, Brown has struggled to regain his form. He had a mediocre season in 2009 and spent much of this year on the sidelines nursing injuries. Nevertheless, at 6'6" 239 with good straight line speed and one elite season to his credit, Brown presents just the kind of compelling physical specimen who could emerge from relative obscurity to become a surprise at the next level. Just realize that the potential for boom is dwarfed by the potential for bust. Brown has been hugely inconsistent in college and even though his height is often cited as a positive attribute, many tall receivers struggle with quickness/route running.
16. WR Leonard Hankerson, Miami
Hankerson used all four years of eligibility at Miami and improved every single season, culminating in a 1156 yard senior year. Listed at 6'3" 205, Hankerson has a combination of size/speed in line with what teams want from a #1 target. It wouldn't be accurate to describe his college career as dominant, but he became a solid starter and showed the ability to get downfield and get under a deep pass. He has received an invitation to the Senior Bowl, so hopefully we'll be seeing more of him in the next few weeks. Right now he looks like the best senior WR in the draft and a player who could have a starting future in the NFL, even if it's not as a #1 target.
17. WR Titus Young, Boise State
I have been a fan of Young's game for years. Some people are likely to prefer teammate Austin Pettis. Pettis is a good possession WR, but in my opinion he lacks the special qualities needed to stand out in the NFL. Young is by no means a lock for stardom either, but his explosive speed and quickness give him a higher ceiling. Young is like a lesser version of DeSean Jackson. He's rail thin, relying on superior explosiveness to generate separation and create yards. Young terrorized his lower level of competition during the past two seasons, topping the 1000 yard mark each year while also making a major impact on special teams. It's hard to say whether he's closer to Roscoe Parrish than DeSean Jackson, but some team will pick him in the top 100-120 picks and give him the opportunity to develop into a contributor at WR while he handles some return duties.
18. TE Kyle Rudolph, Notre Dame
I only watched one of Rudolph's games this year and it wasn't a good day for him. The Stanford defense schemed against him and completely took him out of the game. I can't help but feel that he's a bit overrated. He's widely considered a potential first round pick even though his college stats are anything but impressive. In the few times I've made a point of watching him, he hasn't shown impressive speed and quickness. Nevertheless, you have to put some stock into what the scouts say. I discounted Rob Gronkowski for similar reasons last season even though he was considered a 1st round talent by a lot of professional evaluators. He seemed to justify the hype with his strong rookie season. So even though I have doubts about Rudolph and don't consider him on par with elite TE prospects of the past, at this point in the draft he's probably worth a shot.
19. TE Lance Kendricks, Wisconsin
Kendricks looked like the best player on the field for the Badgers in the Rose Bowl against TCU. He has a strong build and runs well for a bigger target. The overall impression I got was of a B-grade Kellen Winslow who has all the physical and football attributes needed to become an average starter in the NFL. That's not exactly an exciting prognosis, but in a down year for skill talent in the NFL draft, teams in need of a starting TE could do a lot worse. 2-3 years from now Kendricks could be a top 10-15 TE.
20. WR Jerrel Jernigan, Troy
I have never seen Jernigan play apart from watching some YouTube highlights. This ranking is based mostly on his reputation. Jernigan has received an invitation to the Senior Bowl and a lot of draft pundits consider him a 1st-2nd round NFL draft pick. In the few clips that I've seen, he shows a compelling combination of speed/quickness, body control, and hands. He was a key player for Troy and looks like he could be one of the best sleeper picks in this draft. I think he's a strong candidate to move up this list between now and April. Hopefully we'll be seeing/hearing more of him from Mobile in the coming weeks.
OTHERS
QB Jake Locker, Washington - Could be worth a shot in the 15-20 range. Badly overhyped though.
QB Christian Ponder, Florid State - Tumbled down the charts after a poor senior season.
QB Andy Dalton, TCU - Senior Bowl invitee.
QB Ricky Stanzi, Iowa - Senior Bowl invitee.
QB Pat Devlin, Delaware - Trendy small school pick entering the season.
RB Kendall Hunter, Oklahoma State - Dominant stats packed in a small frame. Might have to bump him up with the likes of Quizz/Devine.
RB Delone Carter, Syracuse - One of my top sleepers of the past couple years had a good season and should get drafted.
RB Chad Spann, Northern Illinois - Another little guy with impressive stats.
RB Darren Evans, Virginia Tech - Solid backup type with decent size, but no special qualities.
RB DeMarco Murray, Oklahoma - One of the most overrated prospects in the country, IMO.
RB Adam Robinson, ex-Iowa - Legal troubles.
RB John Clay, Wisconsin - Tub of goo.
RB Allen Bradford, USC - Good 5th-6th round pick with some upside. At worst a decent backup.
RB Jay Finley, Baylor - Big stats this year. Don't know anything about him.
RB Anthony Allen, Georgia Tech - Yet another draftable Tech RB?
WR Tyrod Taylor, Virginia Tech - Shows great promise as a WR prospect if he can catch the ball. Elusive.
WR Vincent Brown, SDSU - Great production over the past few years. Decent height and smooth in a straight line.
WR Jeremy Kerley, TCU - Looks the part, but has modest stats. Senior Bowl invitee.
WR Torrey Smith, Maryland - Productive speedster leaving school early.
WR Tandon Doss, Indana - Early entry junior who has been modestly hyped since last year. I've never seen him play.
WR Greg Little, North Carolina - Mid round prospect missed the entire season.
WR Austin Pettis, Boise State - Productive possession receiver with decent size.
WR Dwayne Harris, East Carolina - Decent YAC guy. Not sure he has starter potential. Kind of a poor man's Boldin.
WR Randall Cobb, Kentucky - Good production. Hasn't declared for the draft yet though.
WR Jeff Fuller, Texas A&M - Big target with good stats. Hasn't decided on draft intentions yet.
WR Jordan White, Western Michigan - Big senior season. Not sure if he has real NFL potential.
WR Dwight Dasher, Middle Tennessee State - Another running QB who looks to me like he might be able to play WR.
WR Matt Szczur, Villanova - Baseball player. Somewhere between Eric Decker and Wes Welker in terms of style. Doesn't look that great to me. Senior Bowl invitee.
WR Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, ex-Iowa - Career went up in smoke...
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I'm just still bummed this class is short 4 studs.
Good stuff. I pick #1, 4 and 11 in my three main leagues. Gonna get some talent.
