EBF
Footballguy
Quick thoughts before we get to the fun stuff:
- I'm not in any way shape or form the guy to ask about this year's crop of QBs. While I have seen many of them play at least once, Locker is the only one that I think I have a strong read on. My QB rankings this year are based on reading other people's scouting reports, looking at stats, and making a gut call. I can't provide detailed critiques of someone like Gabbert or Ponder, so I rank them about where I think the consensus should place them.
- I think the strength of this year's class is the depth. I'm seeing quality prospects fall into the 20-40 range. There's some really nice value to be had out there. On the flipside, the top of this draft is pitiful outside the first 5-6 picks. I really don't think there's a tangible difference in quality between the options at 10 and the options at 20 in a lot of leagues. My third tier is HUUUGE this year simply because I see little separation.
- I think a lot of people are making the mistake of reaching for marginal talents in good situations this year. No doubt 1 or 2 of those guys will pay off huge, but I don't like the strategy of picking and praying. I don't think guys like Newton, Rudolph, and Gabbert should be falling below 4th-5th round RBs solely because of situation. Then again, I can understand the allure of a Helu or Carter since the potential payoff is huge.
- These rankings are intended for PPR dynasty leagues. The basic question that I try to use when I assemble them is, "Would I be willing to trade this guy for any one of the players rated above him?"
First Tier
1. RB Mark Ingram, Saints - I think Ingram has a pretty high ceiling along with the highest floor in this class, making him a safe investment at the top of the draft. He might not start right away, but he'll play immediately and his name recognition and draft pedigree will ensure that he maintains good value for the next year or two at least. I was a little disappointed with his poor testing numbers, but I don't think his lack of elite combine numbers will prevent him from being a solid pro. On the field Ingram shows a top notch combination of power, agility, vision, and initial quickness. I think he's reminiscent of two other former workout bombs who went on to successful NFL careers: Cedric Benson and Frank Gore. Benson represents Ingram's floor whereas Gore represents his ceiling (though Ingram will never be as good in the receiving game). I expect Ingram to be a fringe RB1 within two years, with top 5 upside if everything clicks just right.
2. WR AJ Green, Bengals - I'm not quite as high on Green as the pundits. He has excellent height and is a springy athlete with elite body control, hands, and pure receiving skills. On the other hand, the comparisons to elite pro receivers like Larry Fitzgerald and Randy Moss don't work for me. Green has neither Randy's speed nor Larry's strength. I think he's closer to Sidney Rice or maybe a slightly taller version of Reggie Wayne. Both of those receivers are thin like Green and lack great stopwatch speed, but they've still carved out successful pro careers because of their route running, body control, and hands. Green is cut from the same cloth. His lateral agility is not impressive, but he should be able to get downfield and separate thanks to his fluid stride. His ability to win jump balls and make difficult catches will be tremendously useful at the next level. Overall, I think Green is slightly overrated. I rate him below Dez Bryant from the 2010 class and don't believe that he's a significantly better prospect than Demaryius Thomas was, but he has enough physical talent to be successful and his innate receiving skills are top drawer. I think he has a good chance at multiple 1000+ yard seasons in the NFL.
3. WR Julio Jones, Falcons - Jones was touted as the next big thing when he signed with Alabama and, for the most part, he justified the hype. He's a big target with enough speed and quickness to evade defenders and enough power to overwhelm them. He put together a very nice 2010 season and helped boost his stock even further by logging some ridiculous workout numbers at the combine. There's no better physical specimen in this draft class than Julio Jones. On the downside, his consistency has been questioned and I don't think he always played with the power or speed that his combine numbers suggest. In that regard he has just a tiny bit in common with former Texas WR Roy Williams, but Jones is a different player with a better overall set of physical tools. I think he's going to be an above average starting WR in the NFL who flirts with elite status. I can't quite justify ranking him 1st or 2nd, but I think he's in the conversation and I'd be happy to take him off the board with the 3rd pick in my rookie draft. The bottom line for me is that players with his combination of physical talent, draft hype, and demonstrated production are valuable commodities with bright prospects.
4. WR Jon Baldwin, Chiefs - I'm ranking Baldwin in my first tier just to prove a point. I don't think he's quite on par with Jones or Green, but I don't dislike him enough to lump him in with late 2nd round picks like Little and Cobb. Baldwin is a king-sized target with a compelling set of physical tools. His 42" vertical leap at the combine is Calvin-esque and his 10'9" broad jump was one of the best marks recorded by any player. If that weren't enough, Baldwin timed in the high 4.4 range in the 40. Far from being a mere workout warrior, Baldwin was a productive collegiate who logged more receiving yards over the last two seasons than AJ Green (albeit in more games). Baldwin lacks an elite burst and will struggle to make defenders miss in the open field, but he has an athletic build with an extremely smooth stride. He shows the ability to make difficult catches over a defender and his rare combination of height, strength, and speed will pose matchup problems for every DB in the NFL. Baldwin has been firmly entrenched in the 1.04 spot on my board since the first day of the NFL draft, and I'm a little surprised that one of the only skill talents picked in the first round of this year's NFL draft has routinely been slipping into the 8-12 range of my rookie drafts. I think he presents fantastic value there. I'd gladly take him off the board at 1.04, so getting him any later is just a nice bonus. Baldwin's character and consistency are questionable, but he's flat out more talented than any RB or WR ranked below him here.
Second Tier
5. RB Daniel Thomas, Dolphins - Thomas was a productive college back who flashes great agility for a taller man. He reminds me a lot of Matt Forte. Like Forte, Thomas lacks the top shelf physical gifts of a conventional first round RB, but he's surprisingly mobile for his height and build. He's not quite as fast as Forte, but he has superior power. His loose hips and 220+ pound frame should translate well to the NFL. His upright running style could shorten his career and he lacks the amazing qualities to become a star, but I believe that he's fully capable of topping 1000+ yards at the pro level if given the opportunity to carry the load for a team. I would feel pretty good about taking him in the 1.05 spot, with Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams both in the twilight of their careers.
6. RB Ryan Williams, Cardinals - Williams is one of the more enigmatic players in the draft. He posted great workout numbers at the combine and dominated his competition in 2009. He's an explosive runner with good foot quickness and a dangerous first step. Some onlookers have compared him to DeAngelo Williams, but Ryan doesn't possess the same lower body strength. He has a slightly thin frame that will struggle to generate power against pro defenders. He struggled with injuries during the 2010 and was not overly impressive when in the lineup. I think there's a boom-or-bust quality to Williams. Is he the explosive home run threat that we saw in 2009 or the inconsistent, undersized enigma that we saw in 2010? I've never been a huge believer in Williams, but there's a lot to like here. He was a high draft pick and he possesses a lot of physical talent. At the very least he should provide the Cardinals with a dynamic change of pace to the overrated Beanie Wells. At best he could be a legitimate NFL starter in his own right. I don't have enough faith to take him in the top 5, but he represents too much value to pass up at the 6 spot.
7. RB Mikel Leshoure, Lions - Leshoure has been arguably the best RB in the Big 10 over the past two seasons. He tested well at the combine and shows enough talent on the field to make you think there's a role for him in the NFL. Leshoure is a big back with a strong combination of straight-line speed and size. He's one of the better power backs in this class and when there's a crease, he can generate serious momentum. On the downside, Leshoure is a bit stiff in the hips, lacking the ability to consistently make defenders miss in space. He has reasonably quick feet, but you're not often going to see him plant and make sharp cuts when running at full speed. I think Jahvid Best is the better overall talent, which means Leshoure might never be more than an also-ran for the Lions. Still, his combination of featured back size and speed makes him a good player to stash on your bench. Best has never been durable. Even if he stays healthy, the Lions will want to get Leshoure involved as the power back. He should see 100+ carries next season and could eventually emerge as a starter elsewhere.
8. QB Cam Newton, Panthers - Lots of people rate players like Gabbert and Ponder above Newton. I've always felt that raw athleticism is overrated at the QB position. Vince Young's elite physical skills haven't made him a great quarterback. That's because succeeding at this position in the NFL is almost entirely about chucking the rock, not running. Still, I think Newton is the top dog in this year's QB class. Michael Vick is living proof that athletic dominance is relevant to being NFL QB, if not sufficient. Is there a more dominant athlete in this class than Newton? He lit the SEC on fire in his debut season despite lacking any semblance of experience. Newton put up staggering statistics and helped lead his team to a national title. Whereas players like Gabbert and Ponder were mediocrities at the amateur level, Newton was a legitimate superstar. I think he'll need A LOT of work to translate his success to the next level, but you can't argue with his results so far and he possesses all the physical talent that you could ever hope for in a QB. Some have questioned his character. I think it's entirely possible that he took money from Auburn boosters and I think he did some knucklehead things at Florida, but he doesn't strike me as a bad apple. I'm willing to gamble on him here for the same reason that Carolina did: if he pans out, he could be a true difference-maker. Once upon a time people went crazy around here for Vince Young. Well...Cam Newton is bigger, stronger, smarter, and better than Vince Young. I think his upside warrants a selection in this range. I've seen him fall into the 15-20 range of many of my drafts. That doesn't make a lot of sense to me given the lack of difference-maker talent in this crop.
9. WR Greg Little, Browns - Little has swiftly become one of the trendiest picks in rookie drafts. I've seen him go as high as 1.04 and he never seems to drop out of the top 10. I think people are jumping the gun a bit, but I can understand their enthusiasm. Little's profile reads much like Mike Williams' (the Tampa Bay version). Both were dominant college performers with elite athletic measurables whose careers were side-tracked by off-field issues. Williams had a tremendously successful rookie year after falling to Tampa in the early 4th round and it looks like a lot of people are expecting the same from Little. I don't think Little is a safe pick and I don't think he consistently plays to the level that his measurables would indicate. That's understandable given that he's still fairly new to the WR position, having been converted from RB. On the field Little is tough and competitive. I'm not hugely impressed with his agility or his running style, but he's fast enough to threaten people and aggressive when the ball is in the air or in his hands. Cleveland has no real WR talent at the moment, so Little should immediately become one of their top options. I like him in this range of rookie drafts not because I think he's a surefire slam dunk, but rather because he's the "best of the rest" and because his combination of production/measurables/opportunity is very encouraging.
10. WR Randall Cobb, Packers - There are a few reasons why I like Randall Cobb. The first is that he's obviously a great football player. He's a borderline legend at Kentucky, where he consistently impacted the game in a variety of ways. The other main reason why I like him is the team that drafted him. Ted Thompson seems to have a gift for selecting good receivers. Greg Jennings was a home run. Jordy Nelson has gradually become a productive player. Jermichael Finley has been a steal. Even James Jones played well considering where he was drafted. The fact that a front office with a strong track record of evaluating WRs selected Cobb in the 2nd round increases his value in my eyes. And oh yea, the presence of Aaron Rodgers doesn't hurt either. Rodgers is the type of elite QB who can single-handedly elevate the FF value of the receivers on his team. Whereas being the 3rd WR on a team like Carolina or Chicago would be FF poison, being the third WR for Rodgers could conceivably make someone a top 20 FF WR. That eases some of my concerns about Cobb, who feels a little bit like Antwaan Randle El 2.0. There's no doubt that Cobb is a tremendous football player, but he lacks overwhelming physical talent and was used mostly in a gimmicky/gadget capacity at Kentucky. I'm not entirely sure that he'll ever claw his way out of the slot in Green Bay, but it's a definite possibility. With Donald Driver due to decline and James Jones headed elsewhere, Cobb will have an immediate opportunity to assert himself.
11. WR Edmond Gates, Dolphins - I think Gates has more superstar potential than any player drafted outside the first round. He's a fluid, explosive athlete who blew the roof off the combine by running in the 4.3 range while topping 40" in the vert and posting the kind of broad jump that would make Chris Johnson proud. Gates has insane athletic gifts. On the field, he's reminiscent of a young Chad Johnson. Lean and explosive with a smooth stride that eats up turf in a hurry. So what's the downside? Well, for one thing he played at a small school. He hasn't faced elite competition and could struggle to adapt quickly. On the other hand, I consider this a blessing in disguise because it's one of the only reasons why his hype is even remotely under the radar. The more pressing concern is the fact that Gates was born in 1986. He'll by 25 years old by the time his rookie season rolls around. So if you assume the average 2-3 year developmental period for a WR, we're looking at a player who might not find his footing until he's 27-28. By then his elite speed will probably already be declining. So while I think Gates has tremendous promise and is easily the most "wow" of any WR outside the top 4, he's a raw player who figures to have a short shelf life.
Third Tier
12. RB Shane Vereen, Patriots - Vereen is a quality back who's good at everything and elite at nothing. He's fast, but not blazing. He's strong, but not a bulldozer. He's solidly-built, but not huge. I have seen him play many times in his college career and while I've always thought that he was a pretty nice player, I never felt he had a future as an NFL starter. He just simply doesn't have any one overwhelming skill that sets him apart from his competition. You can plug him in and he'll probably give you good results, but he's probably not going to make a lot of difference-maker plays. Fact is, every Cal RB to play under Tedford has been successful. First it was Adimchinobe Echemandu. Then JJ Arrington. Then Marshawn Lynch. Then Jahvid Best. Now Vereen. Every one of these guys thrived and every one of them was drafted, but thus far none of them have exceeded expectations at the next level (though the jury is still out on Best and, to some extent, Lynch). I'm not a big fan of pigeonholing a player just because he happened to go to X school or play for Z coach, but it's something to keep in mind before you get carried away with Vereen. I rate him as roughly in the middle of Arrington (who I didn't like) and Lynch/Best (who I liked). He really doesn't have the dynamic qualities of the latter two, but he's a cut above the former. If he had gone to a team with an entrenched starter, he might not have cracked my top 20 rookies. However, New England is a quality organization with a dearth of talent in the RB stable. I don't believe that Vereen is special, but he's not bad and he could thrive solely on the basis of opportunity.
13. RB Roy Helu, Redskins - I don't have much to say about Helu because I never made a point of watching him when he was in college. I know that he was a productive back with a solid combination of straight-line speed and size. He doesn't stand out to me as a quality prospect in the highlights that I've seen. Were it not for his landing spot, he wouldn't be this high on my list. However, Mike Shanahan's track record of evaluating RBs is impressive, if not a little overrated. The fact that he aggressively pursued Helu makes me much more optimistic about Roy's outlook than I would be normally. The Redskins have a weak RB corps and even if Helu is only an average NFL player, he'll temporarily be the best back on their roster. I like him as a roll of the dice for teams seeking instant impact, but don't expect the next Terrell Davis. I think he's far more likely to be the next Gartrell Johnson or Cedric Cobbs.
14. RB DeMarco Murray, Cowboys - I'm an admitted DeMarco Murray hater. People have been hyping him for years and I've just never understood what the fuss was about. He has an unconventional build for a pro RB and an awkward running style. I thought he would go quietly, but then he blew up at the Senior Bowl and put on a show at the combine. There's no denying that Murray is vertically explosive. He's fast in a straight line and an interesting prospect as a pass catcher out of the backfield. On the other hand, I've seen him at his 1 YPC worst. He lacks power and just doesn't look like a fluid rusher to me. I don't like him, but he was a high pick and if a uniquely-built runner like Darren McFadden can achieve some success in the NFL then I can't totally write off Murray. I don't really see how he fits in with Dallas because there's a lot of skill overlap with Felix Jones, but they didn't draft him to watch him sit on the bench, so if nothing else he should get some carries as a COOP back. Is he the long-term answer at RB for this team or your FF squad? I'd be surprised.
15. TE Kyle Rudolph, Vikings - Rudolph is a well-built TE with enough speed, strength, and versatility to become an every-down player. His speed and quickness are merely adequate. He doesn't have the agility of Tony Gonzalez or Dallas Clark, but with his big frame and reliable hands he can still become a productive receiver in the mold of someone like Greg Olsen. As is often the case with the top TE on the board, Rudolph represents a boring, but safe pick who has a good chance to develop into a serviceable starter both in reality and in FF. How high you want to take him should depend on your need at the position and the importance of TEs in your particular league format.
16. QB Blaine Gabbert, Jaguars - I'm not going to pretend that I have the book on Gabbert. All I've seen are highlights. I don't know anything more than what's readily available online. He's a big passer with a good enough arm who's praised for his football intelligence and mobility. What I don't understand is why he wasn't more dominant in college. I expect franchise QBs to make college defenses look silly. Cam Newton did it. Andrew Luck did it. Ryan Mallett did it. So why not Gabbert? His stats from last season are totally ordinary and he didn't carry the team to great heights. I'm a little concerned by that. On the other hand, the pundits seem to love him and his profile reads a bit like a Joe Flacco type. On the surface he might look like a reach, but you have to put some faith in the professionals.
17. QB Christian Ponder, Vikings - Ponder is smart, experienced QB whose senior season was hampered by injuries. He's a bit on the small side for a pro QB and his arm strength is considered a liability, but some analysts think he has a good skill set to run a West Coast Offense that relies on timing and accuracy. Ponder has been compared to Chad Pennington, who looked like he had a reasonably bright future before injuries killed his career. I wouldn't be very excited about adding Ponder in the second round of the rookie draft, but the Vikings liked him enough to spend a top 12 pick on him and he'll be given every opportunity to become their starter. They have some nice weapons in place and if everything clicks, Ponder could become a useful FF player.
18. WR Titus Young, Lions - Young first caught my attention last year, when he was a junior. I was intrigued by his speed and quickness. He built on that promising 2009 season by logging impressive numbers in his senior campaign. Young is a rail thin, explosive WR who is often compared to DeSean Jackson. Young lacks Jackson's sheer deep speed, but still demonstrates the ability to get downfield and make big plays. He has a lighting quick first step and should create problems after the catch with his quickness. I think he looks pretty good on the field, but he's small for a WR and he doesn't quite have the top gear speed that you'd want in a player this size. Given the presence of players like Calvin, Best, and Pettigrew on Detroit's roster, it's somewhat difficult to see Young ever becoming more than a second or third option. Still, he's a quality athlete with a good draft pedigree who just might have enough height and speed to become a productive full-time #2, rather than just a slot option.
19. WR Leonard Hankerson, Redskins - In some respects, Hankerson is like the WR version of Shane Vereen. There's nothing glaringly bad about his game, but he doesn't really stand out in any way either. He's reasonably big with pretty good stopwatch speed, but he's not a burner or a guy who's going to punish people after the catch. His career at Miami was solid without being spectacular. That seems to describe Hankerson in a nutshell. I agree with the sentiment that he's most likely destined for a WR2 role in the NFL. If the Redskins get their offense in order, Hankerson could be a useful player to have in your lineup, but I don't think his ceiling is very high. I expect kind of a Michael Jenkins/Mark Clayton type of career.
20. WR Torrey Smith, Ravens - I just don't see it with Smith, who looks like a one-trick pony to me despite being widely regarded as a top 5 WR in this draft. Yea, he can get downfield, but he doesn't seem to have the route running skills or overwhelming strength that I would hope to see in a future NFL starter. And while I don't want to get carried away pigeon-holing players based on the past, when was the last time Baltimore got good value out of a WR selection in the NFL draft? It's been well over a decade, unless you think Mark Clayton was a success as a first round pick. This team has shown no ability to identify WR talent and I'm afraid that Smith is another miss. His combine numbers were tremendous and I couldn't fault anyone for trusting the professionals in this case, but I'm passing on Smith unless he falls deep into my drafts.
21. RB Dion Lewis, Eagles - Ever since I first saw Lewis run the rock, I was reminded of Ray Rice. He has the same kind of squatty build and elite lateral agility. Both players were instant stars in the Big East. While Rice went on to become a second round pick and an NFL star, Lewis tumbled to the 5th round of the draft and seems slotted for a backup role at the pro level. Lewis isn't quite as tall or heavy as Rice and he's not as fast. That's probably why he wasn't picked as high. You can't ever say that a 5th rounder is a safe bet for success, but I'm still a big fan of Dion's game and I'll gladly reach a few spots to roll the dice on him. I think short, squatty backs who can cut on a dime and make defenders miss are great fits for the NFL. Lewis might not have the speed or height that teams want, but he fits the mold of previous success stories like Rice, MJD, and Bradshaw. His size limitations and lack of sheer speed might ultimately prevent him from making an impact on the NFL level and I don't like the fact that he's stuck behind a quality young starter on the depth chart, but I can't fade my gut instinct to be bullish on Lewis and I think Philadelphia runs a great system for his skill set. If you're a fan of his skill set, you can probably wait until the 25-30 range to grab him. At that point I think the potential reward is well worth the considerable bust risk.
22. QB Ryan Mallett, Patriots - Could Mallett be one of the sneakiest picks in this year's rookie drafts? When you remove all other considerations from the equation and just look at the stats, his college career smokes anything that Gabbert, Locker, or Ponder did. This guy put up video game numbers in a conference renowned for its talented defenses. There's no doubt that he has the frame to hold up to NFL punishment or the arm strength to rifle the ball all over the field. On the other hand, Mallett has suspect intelligence and character. His mobility is poor and he showed a knack for making questionable decisions in pressure situations. Mallett is lacking in the intangibles department, but he landed on a team with a great infrastructure and an excellent role model. If Mallett plays nice and decides to take his job as Tom Brady's understudy seriously, he could emerge as a starting NFL QB in New England or elsewhere. Given the perpetually-putrid state of quarterbacking in the NFL, is it only a matter of time until a gifted passer like Mallett gets his chance?
23. TE Lance Kendricks, Rams - The Rams have a promising young QB, but do they have anyone who can catch the ball? I don't particularly like either of the receivers they drafted, but Kendricks is a reasonably promising TE who could benefit from a friendly situation. I first noticed him in the Rose Bowl against TCU, where he looked like the best skill position player on the field for the Badgers. He's a solidly-built and fluid athlete who moves well for a TE. Having said that, his below average weight and suspect blocking skills might put a cap on his upside. While he's a quality athlete, he possesses neither the blazing speed nor the elite make-you-miss agility to be a true terror as a pure receiver. Like a lot of players on this list, his lofty ranking has as much to do with opportunity as talent. Kendricks is an okay prospect in a great situation. If the results fall somewhere in the middle of those two points, he'll be a good FF starter.
24. WR Vincent Brown, Chargers - Brown played his college ball at San Diego State and apparently impressed the Chargers enough to earn a high spot on their draft board. Although he was hugely productive in college, it's difficult to say what lies ahead in the NFL for Brown. While he's not small or slow, he doesn't have prototypical NFL size or speed. He's a finesse WR in the mold of someone like Reggie Wayne (although less talented). Not super fast, but fluid and gifted in the art of separation. An optimist might predict a career similar to that of New York's Steve Smith. Brown doesn't have as much speed though and could struggle against pro corners. I think he'll probably end up as an effective complementary receiver whose reliable possession game helps keep drives moving, even if it never lights up the box scores.
OTHERS:
QB Jake Locker, Titans - I have a hard time seeing him succeeding. He was a mediocre college player and his accuracy/instincts are poor.
QB Colin Kaepernick, 49ers - A long term project. Skinny build, but at least he's athletic.
QB Andy Dalton, Bengals - I'm no expert, but I'm not getting good vibes on this one. Just seems no different from a 6th-7th rounder.
RB Alex Green, Packers - The opportunity is intriguing. I see him as a less elusive, but faster Tim Hightower. Bit player.
RB Stevan Ridley, Patriots - Falling pretty far considering the draft position and team situation. I'm not excited about him either.
RB Johnny White, Bills - I like his game, but he doesn't quite have the physical tools. Looks like a backup.
RB JacQuizz Rodgers, Falcons - Similar in some respects to Lewis, although I've never liked him quite as much. Deceptively strong because he's thick, even if he's not tall. Great foot quickness and elusiveness. Like Lewis, I think he has a chance to be more effective than people anticipate.
RB Delone Carter, Colts - Not THAT different from Helu in terms of situation and I liked him more as a college player, so maybe I need to move him up. He certainly has upside.
RB Bilal Powell, Jets - I don't really see it and I don't think the opportunity is great. I liked Greene when he came into the league. Even if he's not the answer, I'm not sure Powell is either.
WR Jeremy Kerley, Jets - Love him as an NFL player, but I don't know if I see any FF upside. He's only 5'9" with 4.6 speed. It's just hard to imagine him escaping the slot.
WR Jerrel Jernigan, Giants - Similar to Kerley. I like what he does, but his upside is suspect. I'm slightly more optimistic about Jernigan because he's a little more dynamic. At times he reminds me of Santonio Holmes. Jernigan is shorter though and he has yet to show me the same downfield game.
WR Greg Salas, Rams - Like a lot of people, I rate him above Pettis. He seems like he could benefit from his opportunity in a big way. Interesting short term sleeper pick.
TE Rob Housler, Cardinals - Interesting opportunity for him in Arizona. Seems to have some potential.
- I'm not in any way shape or form the guy to ask about this year's crop of QBs. While I have seen many of them play at least once, Locker is the only one that I think I have a strong read on. My QB rankings this year are based on reading other people's scouting reports, looking at stats, and making a gut call. I can't provide detailed critiques of someone like Gabbert or Ponder, so I rank them about where I think the consensus should place them.
- I think the strength of this year's class is the depth. I'm seeing quality prospects fall into the 20-40 range. There's some really nice value to be had out there. On the flipside, the top of this draft is pitiful outside the first 5-6 picks. I really don't think there's a tangible difference in quality between the options at 10 and the options at 20 in a lot of leagues. My third tier is HUUUGE this year simply because I see little separation.
- I think a lot of people are making the mistake of reaching for marginal talents in good situations this year. No doubt 1 or 2 of those guys will pay off huge, but I don't like the strategy of picking and praying. I don't think guys like Newton, Rudolph, and Gabbert should be falling below 4th-5th round RBs solely because of situation. Then again, I can understand the allure of a Helu or Carter since the potential payoff is huge.
- These rankings are intended for PPR dynasty leagues. The basic question that I try to use when I assemble them is, "Would I be willing to trade this guy for any one of the players rated above him?"
First Tier
1. RB Mark Ingram, Saints - I think Ingram has a pretty high ceiling along with the highest floor in this class, making him a safe investment at the top of the draft. He might not start right away, but he'll play immediately and his name recognition and draft pedigree will ensure that he maintains good value for the next year or two at least. I was a little disappointed with his poor testing numbers, but I don't think his lack of elite combine numbers will prevent him from being a solid pro. On the field Ingram shows a top notch combination of power, agility, vision, and initial quickness. I think he's reminiscent of two other former workout bombs who went on to successful NFL careers: Cedric Benson and Frank Gore. Benson represents Ingram's floor whereas Gore represents his ceiling (though Ingram will never be as good in the receiving game). I expect Ingram to be a fringe RB1 within two years, with top 5 upside if everything clicks just right.
2. WR AJ Green, Bengals - I'm not quite as high on Green as the pundits. He has excellent height and is a springy athlete with elite body control, hands, and pure receiving skills. On the other hand, the comparisons to elite pro receivers like Larry Fitzgerald and Randy Moss don't work for me. Green has neither Randy's speed nor Larry's strength. I think he's closer to Sidney Rice or maybe a slightly taller version of Reggie Wayne. Both of those receivers are thin like Green and lack great stopwatch speed, but they've still carved out successful pro careers because of their route running, body control, and hands. Green is cut from the same cloth. His lateral agility is not impressive, but he should be able to get downfield and separate thanks to his fluid stride. His ability to win jump balls and make difficult catches will be tremendously useful at the next level. Overall, I think Green is slightly overrated. I rate him below Dez Bryant from the 2010 class and don't believe that he's a significantly better prospect than Demaryius Thomas was, but he has enough physical talent to be successful and his innate receiving skills are top drawer. I think he has a good chance at multiple 1000+ yard seasons in the NFL.
3. WR Julio Jones, Falcons - Jones was touted as the next big thing when he signed with Alabama and, for the most part, he justified the hype. He's a big target with enough speed and quickness to evade defenders and enough power to overwhelm them. He put together a very nice 2010 season and helped boost his stock even further by logging some ridiculous workout numbers at the combine. There's no better physical specimen in this draft class than Julio Jones. On the downside, his consistency has been questioned and I don't think he always played with the power or speed that his combine numbers suggest. In that regard he has just a tiny bit in common with former Texas WR Roy Williams, but Jones is a different player with a better overall set of physical tools. I think he's going to be an above average starting WR in the NFL who flirts with elite status. I can't quite justify ranking him 1st or 2nd, but I think he's in the conversation and I'd be happy to take him off the board with the 3rd pick in my rookie draft. The bottom line for me is that players with his combination of physical talent, draft hype, and demonstrated production are valuable commodities with bright prospects.
4. WR Jon Baldwin, Chiefs - I'm ranking Baldwin in my first tier just to prove a point. I don't think he's quite on par with Jones or Green, but I don't dislike him enough to lump him in with late 2nd round picks like Little and Cobb. Baldwin is a king-sized target with a compelling set of physical tools. His 42" vertical leap at the combine is Calvin-esque and his 10'9" broad jump was one of the best marks recorded by any player. If that weren't enough, Baldwin timed in the high 4.4 range in the 40. Far from being a mere workout warrior, Baldwin was a productive collegiate who logged more receiving yards over the last two seasons than AJ Green (albeit in more games). Baldwin lacks an elite burst and will struggle to make defenders miss in the open field, but he has an athletic build with an extremely smooth stride. He shows the ability to make difficult catches over a defender and his rare combination of height, strength, and speed will pose matchup problems for every DB in the NFL. Baldwin has been firmly entrenched in the 1.04 spot on my board since the first day of the NFL draft, and I'm a little surprised that one of the only skill talents picked in the first round of this year's NFL draft has routinely been slipping into the 8-12 range of my rookie drafts. I think he presents fantastic value there. I'd gladly take him off the board at 1.04, so getting him any later is just a nice bonus. Baldwin's character and consistency are questionable, but he's flat out more talented than any RB or WR ranked below him here.
Second Tier
5. RB Daniel Thomas, Dolphins - Thomas was a productive college back who flashes great agility for a taller man. He reminds me a lot of Matt Forte. Like Forte, Thomas lacks the top shelf physical gifts of a conventional first round RB, but he's surprisingly mobile for his height and build. He's not quite as fast as Forte, but he has superior power. His loose hips and 220+ pound frame should translate well to the NFL. His upright running style could shorten his career and he lacks the amazing qualities to become a star, but I believe that he's fully capable of topping 1000+ yards at the pro level if given the opportunity to carry the load for a team. I would feel pretty good about taking him in the 1.05 spot, with Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams both in the twilight of their careers.
6. RB Ryan Williams, Cardinals - Williams is one of the more enigmatic players in the draft. He posted great workout numbers at the combine and dominated his competition in 2009. He's an explosive runner with good foot quickness and a dangerous first step. Some onlookers have compared him to DeAngelo Williams, but Ryan doesn't possess the same lower body strength. He has a slightly thin frame that will struggle to generate power against pro defenders. He struggled with injuries during the 2010 and was not overly impressive when in the lineup. I think there's a boom-or-bust quality to Williams. Is he the explosive home run threat that we saw in 2009 or the inconsistent, undersized enigma that we saw in 2010? I've never been a huge believer in Williams, but there's a lot to like here. He was a high draft pick and he possesses a lot of physical talent. At the very least he should provide the Cardinals with a dynamic change of pace to the overrated Beanie Wells. At best he could be a legitimate NFL starter in his own right. I don't have enough faith to take him in the top 5, but he represents too much value to pass up at the 6 spot.
7. RB Mikel Leshoure, Lions - Leshoure has been arguably the best RB in the Big 10 over the past two seasons. He tested well at the combine and shows enough talent on the field to make you think there's a role for him in the NFL. Leshoure is a big back with a strong combination of straight-line speed and size. He's one of the better power backs in this class and when there's a crease, he can generate serious momentum. On the downside, Leshoure is a bit stiff in the hips, lacking the ability to consistently make defenders miss in space. He has reasonably quick feet, but you're not often going to see him plant and make sharp cuts when running at full speed. I think Jahvid Best is the better overall talent, which means Leshoure might never be more than an also-ran for the Lions. Still, his combination of featured back size and speed makes him a good player to stash on your bench. Best has never been durable. Even if he stays healthy, the Lions will want to get Leshoure involved as the power back. He should see 100+ carries next season and could eventually emerge as a starter elsewhere.
8. QB Cam Newton, Panthers - Lots of people rate players like Gabbert and Ponder above Newton. I've always felt that raw athleticism is overrated at the QB position. Vince Young's elite physical skills haven't made him a great quarterback. That's because succeeding at this position in the NFL is almost entirely about chucking the rock, not running. Still, I think Newton is the top dog in this year's QB class. Michael Vick is living proof that athletic dominance is relevant to being NFL QB, if not sufficient. Is there a more dominant athlete in this class than Newton? He lit the SEC on fire in his debut season despite lacking any semblance of experience. Newton put up staggering statistics and helped lead his team to a national title. Whereas players like Gabbert and Ponder were mediocrities at the amateur level, Newton was a legitimate superstar. I think he'll need A LOT of work to translate his success to the next level, but you can't argue with his results so far and he possesses all the physical talent that you could ever hope for in a QB. Some have questioned his character. I think it's entirely possible that he took money from Auburn boosters and I think he did some knucklehead things at Florida, but he doesn't strike me as a bad apple. I'm willing to gamble on him here for the same reason that Carolina did: if he pans out, he could be a true difference-maker. Once upon a time people went crazy around here for Vince Young. Well...Cam Newton is bigger, stronger, smarter, and better than Vince Young. I think his upside warrants a selection in this range. I've seen him fall into the 15-20 range of many of my drafts. That doesn't make a lot of sense to me given the lack of difference-maker talent in this crop.
9. WR Greg Little, Browns - Little has swiftly become one of the trendiest picks in rookie drafts. I've seen him go as high as 1.04 and he never seems to drop out of the top 10. I think people are jumping the gun a bit, but I can understand their enthusiasm. Little's profile reads much like Mike Williams' (the Tampa Bay version). Both were dominant college performers with elite athletic measurables whose careers were side-tracked by off-field issues. Williams had a tremendously successful rookie year after falling to Tampa in the early 4th round and it looks like a lot of people are expecting the same from Little. I don't think Little is a safe pick and I don't think he consistently plays to the level that his measurables would indicate. That's understandable given that he's still fairly new to the WR position, having been converted from RB. On the field Little is tough and competitive. I'm not hugely impressed with his agility or his running style, but he's fast enough to threaten people and aggressive when the ball is in the air or in his hands. Cleveland has no real WR talent at the moment, so Little should immediately become one of their top options. I like him in this range of rookie drafts not because I think he's a surefire slam dunk, but rather because he's the "best of the rest" and because his combination of production/measurables/opportunity is very encouraging.
10. WR Randall Cobb, Packers - There are a few reasons why I like Randall Cobb. The first is that he's obviously a great football player. He's a borderline legend at Kentucky, where he consistently impacted the game in a variety of ways. The other main reason why I like him is the team that drafted him. Ted Thompson seems to have a gift for selecting good receivers. Greg Jennings was a home run. Jordy Nelson has gradually become a productive player. Jermichael Finley has been a steal. Even James Jones played well considering where he was drafted. The fact that a front office with a strong track record of evaluating WRs selected Cobb in the 2nd round increases his value in my eyes. And oh yea, the presence of Aaron Rodgers doesn't hurt either. Rodgers is the type of elite QB who can single-handedly elevate the FF value of the receivers on his team. Whereas being the 3rd WR on a team like Carolina or Chicago would be FF poison, being the third WR for Rodgers could conceivably make someone a top 20 FF WR. That eases some of my concerns about Cobb, who feels a little bit like Antwaan Randle El 2.0. There's no doubt that Cobb is a tremendous football player, but he lacks overwhelming physical talent and was used mostly in a gimmicky/gadget capacity at Kentucky. I'm not entirely sure that he'll ever claw his way out of the slot in Green Bay, but it's a definite possibility. With Donald Driver due to decline and James Jones headed elsewhere, Cobb will have an immediate opportunity to assert himself.
11. WR Edmond Gates, Dolphins - I think Gates has more superstar potential than any player drafted outside the first round. He's a fluid, explosive athlete who blew the roof off the combine by running in the 4.3 range while topping 40" in the vert and posting the kind of broad jump that would make Chris Johnson proud. Gates has insane athletic gifts. On the field, he's reminiscent of a young Chad Johnson. Lean and explosive with a smooth stride that eats up turf in a hurry. So what's the downside? Well, for one thing he played at a small school. He hasn't faced elite competition and could struggle to adapt quickly. On the other hand, I consider this a blessing in disguise because it's one of the only reasons why his hype is even remotely under the radar. The more pressing concern is the fact that Gates was born in 1986. He'll by 25 years old by the time his rookie season rolls around. So if you assume the average 2-3 year developmental period for a WR, we're looking at a player who might not find his footing until he's 27-28. By then his elite speed will probably already be declining. So while I think Gates has tremendous promise and is easily the most "wow" of any WR outside the top 4, he's a raw player who figures to have a short shelf life.
Third Tier
12. RB Shane Vereen, Patriots - Vereen is a quality back who's good at everything and elite at nothing. He's fast, but not blazing. He's strong, but not a bulldozer. He's solidly-built, but not huge. I have seen him play many times in his college career and while I've always thought that he was a pretty nice player, I never felt he had a future as an NFL starter. He just simply doesn't have any one overwhelming skill that sets him apart from his competition. You can plug him in and he'll probably give you good results, but he's probably not going to make a lot of difference-maker plays. Fact is, every Cal RB to play under Tedford has been successful. First it was Adimchinobe Echemandu. Then JJ Arrington. Then Marshawn Lynch. Then Jahvid Best. Now Vereen. Every one of these guys thrived and every one of them was drafted, but thus far none of them have exceeded expectations at the next level (though the jury is still out on Best and, to some extent, Lynch). I'm not a big fan of pigeonholing a player just because he happened to go to X school or play for Z coach, but it's something to keep in mind before you get carried away with Vereen. I rate him as roughly in the middle of Arrington (who I didn't like) and Lynch/Best (who I liked). He really doesn't have the dynamic qualities of the latter two, but he's a cut above the former. If he had gone to a team with an entrenched starter, he might not have cracked my top 20 rookies. However, New England is a quality organization with a dearth of talent in the RB stable. I don't believe that Vereen is special, but he's not bad and he could thrive solely on the basis of opportunity.
13. RB Roy Helu, Redskins - I don't have much to say about Helu because I never made a point of watching him when he was in college. I know that he was a productive back with a solid combination of straight-line speed and size. He doesn't stand out to me as a quality prospect in the highlights that I've seen. Were it not for his landing spot, he wouldn't be this high on my list. However, Mike Shanahan's track record of evaluating RBs is impressive, if not a little overrated. The fact that he aggressively pursued Helu makes me much more optimistic about Roy's outlook than I would be normally. The Redskins have a weak RB corps and even if Helu is only an average NFL player, he'll temporarily be the best back on their roster. I like him as a roll of the dice for teams seeking instant impact, but don't expect the next Terrell Davis. I think he's far more likely to be the next Gartrell Johnson or Cedric Cobbs.
14. RB DeMarco Murray, Cowboys - I'm an admitted DeMarco Murray hater. People have been hyping him for years and I've just never understood what the fuss was about. He has an unconventional build for a pro RB and an awkward running style. I thought he would go quietly, but then he blew up at the Senior Bowl and put on a show at the combine. There's no denying that Murray is vertically explosive. He's fast in a straight line and an interesting prospect as a pass catcher out of the backfield. On the other hand, I've seen him at his 1 YPC worst. He lacks power and just doesn't look like a fluid rusher to me. I don't like him, but he was a high pick and if a uniquely-built runner like Darren McFadden can achieve some success in the NFL then I can't totally write off Murray. I don't really see how he fits in with Dallas because there's a lot of skill overlap with Felix Jones, but they didn't draft him to watch him sit on the bench, so if nothing else he should get some carries as a COOP back. Is he the long-term answer at RB for this team or your FF squad? I'd be surprised.
15. TE Kyle Rudolph, Vikings - Rudolph is a well-built TE with enough speed, strength, and versatility to become an every-down player. His speed and quickness are merely adequate. He doesn't have the agility of Tony Gonzalez or Dallas Clark, but with his big frame and reliable hands he can still become a productive receiver in the mold of someone like Greg Olsen. As is often the case with the top TE on the board, Rudolph represents a boring, but safe pick who has a good chance to develop into a serviceable starter both in reality and in FF. How high you want to take him should depend on your need at the position and the importance of TEs in your particular league format.
16. QB Blaine Gabbert, Jaguars - I'm not going to pretend that I have the book on Gabbert. All I've seen are highlights. I don't know anything more than what's readily available online. He's a big passer with a good enough arm who's praised for his football intelligence and mobility. What I don't understand is why he wasn't more dominant in college. I expect franchise QBs to make college defenses look silly. Cam Newton did it. Andrew Luck did it. Ryan Mallett did it. So why not Gabbert? His stats from last season are totally ordinary and he didn't carry the team to great heights. I'm a little concerned by that. On the other hand, the pundits seem to love him and his profile reads a bit like a Joe Flacco type. On the surface he might look like a reach, but you have to put some faith in the professionals.
17. QB Christian Ponder, Vikings - Ponder is smart, experienced QB whose senior season was hampered by injuries. He's a bit on the small side for a pro QB and his arm strength is considered a liability, but some analysts think he has a good skill set to run a West Coast Offense that relies on timing and accuracy. Ponder has been compared to Chad Pennington, who looked like he had a reasonably bright future before injuries killed his career. I wouldn't be very excited about adding Ponder in the second round of the rookie draft, but the Vikings liked him enough to spend a top 12 pick on him and he'll be given every opportunity to become their starter. They have some nice weapons in place and if everything clicks, Ponder could become a useful FF player.
18. WR Titus Young, Lions - Young first caught my attention last year, when he was a junior. I was intrigued by his speed and quickness. He built on that promising 2009 season by logging impressive numbers in his senior campaign. Young is a rail thin, explosive WR who is often compared to DeSean Jackson. Young lacks Jackson's sheer deep speed, but still demonstrates the ability to get downfield and make big plays. He has a lighting quick first step and should create problems after the catch with his quickness. I think he looks pretty good on the field, but he's small for a WR and he doesn't quite have the top gear speed that you'd want in a player this size. Given the presence of players like Calvin, Best, and Pettigrew on Detroit's roster, it's somewhat difficult to see Young ever becoming more than a second or third option. Still, he's a quality athlete with a good draft pedigree who just might have enough height and speed to become a productive full-time #2, rather than just a slot option.
19. WR Leonard Hankerson, Redskins - In some respects, Hankerson is like the WR version of Shane Vereen. There's nothing glaringly bad about his game, but he doesn't really stand out in any way either. He's reasonably big with pretty good stopwatch speed, but he's not a burner or a guy who's going to punish people after the catch. His career at Miami was solid without being spectacular. That seems to describe Hankerson in a nutshell. I agree with the sentiment that he's most likely destined for a WR2 role in the NFL. If the Redskins get their offense in order, Hankerson could be a useful player to have in your lineup, but I don't think his ceiling is very high. I expect kind of a Michael Jenkins/Mark Clayton type of career.
20. WR Torrey Smith, Ravens - I just don't see it with Smith, who looks like a one-trick pony to me despite being widely regarded as a top 5 WR in this draft. Yea, he can get downfield, but he doesn't seem to have the route running skills or overwhelming strength that I would hope to see in a future NFL starter. And while I don't want to get carried away pigeon-holing players based on the past, when was the last time Baltimore got good value out of a WR selection in the NFL draft? It's been well over a decade, unless you think Mark Clayton was a success as a first round pick. This team has shown no ability to identify WR talent and I'm afraid that Smith is another miss. His combine numbers were tremendous and I couldn't fault anyone for trusting the professionals in this case, but I'm passing on Smith unless he falls deep into my drafts.
21. RB Dion Lewis, Eagles - Ever since I first saw Lewis run the rock, I was reminded of Ray Rice. He has the same kind of squatty build and elite lateral agility. Both players were instant stars in the Big East. While Rice went on to become a second round pick and an NFL star, Lewis tumbled to the 5th round of the draft and seems slotted for a backup role at the pro level. Lewis isn't quite as tall or heavy as Rice and he's not as fast. That's probably why he wasn't picked as high. You can't ever say that a 5th rounder is a safe bet for success, but I'm still a big fan of Dion's game and I'll gladly reach a few spots to roll the dice on him. I think short, squatty backs who can cut on a dime and make defenders miss are great fits for the NFL. Lewis might not have the speed or height that teams want, but he fits the mold of previous success stories like Rice, MJD, and Bradshaw. His size limitations and lack of sheer speed might ultimately prevent him from making an impact on the NFL level and I don't like the fact that he's stuck behind a quality young starter on the depth chart, but I can't fade my gut instinct to be bullish on Lewis and I think Philadelphia runs a great system for his skill set. If you're a fan of his skill set, you can probably wait until the 25-30 range to grab him. At that point I think the potential reward is well worth the considerable bust risk.
22. QB Ryan Mallett, Patriots - Could Mallett be one of the sneakiest picks in this year's rookie drafts? When you remove all other considerations from the equation and just look at the stats, his college career smokes anything that Gabbert, Locker, or Ponder did. This guy put up video game numbers in a conference renowned for its talented defenses. There's no doubt that he has the frame to hold up to NFL punishment or the arm strength to rifle the ball all over the field. On the other hand, Mallett has suspect intelligence and character. His mobility is poor and he showed a knack for making questionable decisions in pressure situations. Mallett is lacking in the intangibles department, but he landed on a team with a great infrastructure and an excellent role model. If Mallett plays nice and decides to take his job as Tom Brady's understudy seriously, he could emerge as a starting NFL QB in New England or elsewhere. Given the perpetually-putrid state of quarterbacking in the NFL, is it only a matter of time until a gifted passer like Mallett gets his chance?
23. TE Lance Kendricks, Rams - The Rams have a promising young QB, but do they have anyone who can catch the ball? I don't particularly like either of the receivers they drafted, but Kendricks is a reasonably promising TE who could benefit from a friendly situation. I first noticed him in the Rose Bowl against TCU, where he looked like the best skill position player on the field for the Badgers. He's a solidly-built and fluid athlete who moves well for a TE. Having said that, his below average weight and suspect blocking skills might put a cap on his upside. While he's a quality athlete, he possesses neither the blazing speed nor the elite make-you-miss agility to be a true terror as a pure receiver. Like a lot of players on this list, his lofty ranking has as much to do with opportunity as talent. Kendricks is an okay prospect in a great situation. If the results fall somewhere in the middle of those two points, he'll be a good FF starter.
24. WR Vincent Brown, Chargers - Brown played his college ball at San Diego State and apparently impressed the Chargers enough to earn a high spot on their draft board. Although he was hugely productive in college, it's difficult to say what lies ahead in the NFL for Brown. While he's not small or slow, he doesn't have prototypical NFL size or speed. He's a finesse WR in the mold of someone like Reggie Wayne (although less talented). Not super fast, but fluid and gifted in the art of separation. An optimist might predict a career similar to that of New York's Steve Smith. Brown doesn't have as much speed though and could struggle against pro corners. I think he'll probably end up as an effective complementary receiver whose reliable possession game helps keep drives moving, even if it never lights up the box scores.
OTHERS:
QB Jake Locker, Titans - I have a hard time seeing him succeeding. He was a mediocre college player and his accuracy/instincts are poor.
QB Colin Kaepernick, 49ers - A long term project. Skinny build, but at least he's athletic.
QB Andy Dalton, Bengals - I'm no expert, but I'm not getting good vibes on this one. Just seems no different from a 6th-7th rounder.
RB Alex Green, Packers - The opportunity is intriguing. I see him as a less elusive, but faster Tim Hightower. Bit player.
RB Stevan Ridley, Patriots - Falling pretty far considering the draft position and team situation. I'm not excited about him either.
RB Johnny White, Bills - I like his game, but he doesn't quite have the physical tools. Looks like a backup.
RB JacQuizz Rodgers, Falcons - Similar in some respects to Lewis, although I've never liked him quite as much. Deceptively strong because he's thick, even if he's not tall. Great foot quickness and elusiveness. Like Lewis, I think he has a chance to be more effective than people anticipate.
RB Delone Carter, Colts - Not THAT different from Helu in terms of situation and I liked him more as a college player, so maybe I need to move him up. He certainly has upside.
RB Bilal Powell, Jets - I don't really see it and I don't think the opportunity is great. I liked Greene when he came into the league. Even if he's not the answer, I'm not sure Powell is either.
WR Jeremy Kerley, Jets - Love him as an NFL player, but I don't know if I see any FF upside. He's only 5'9" with 4.6 speed. It's just hard to imagine him escaping the slot.
WR Jerrel Jernigan, Giants - Similar to Kerley. I like what he does, but his upside is suspect. I'm slightly more optimistic about Jernigan because he's a little more dynamic. At times he reminds me of Santonio Holmes. Jernigan is shorter though and he has yet to show me the same downfield game.
WR Greg Salas, Rams - Like a lot of people, I rate him above Pettis. He seems like he could benefit from his opportunity in a big way. Interesting short term sleeper pick.
TE Rob Housler, Cardinals - Interesting opportunity for him in Arizona. Seems to have some potential.
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. You have hated on him in almost every thread I have read about rb's and it seems like in most of your posts in those threads. All of that great read and thats what come up with? We get it....YOU THINK HELU SUCKSEBF, Great job. I think your Hunter (lack of rank), A Green, and Carter rankings are way too low....especially Carter. The QB's are too high as well. I'm like you in that I don't know what to make of the QB's....in some ways I think you could put five or six of them in a hat and blindly choose and have just about as good of a chance at success....for me that means they all drop in value as a trade down can get you multiple picks. If Gates went to a better QB situation I might agree with your agressive rank, but the thing you noted (age/small school) plus the QB situation present way too much risk to be in the top 12 IMO.Thanks for the effort and willigness to share....It is much better than a lot of pay site content.
Don't be so quick to play the McDaniels with TEs card. It's not a strong argument because he's not had a decent TE to throw to and that includes Denver and NE.
And Watson just had, in many respects, his best year ever after leaving NE, with 68 catches for 763 yards, 3 TDs in Cleveland (not exactly an offensive powerhouse).
