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Dynasty: 2nd Year buy low guys (1 Viewer)

jm192

Footballguy
After the draft each year, we see the value of rookie picks go up.  The incoming rookie class is new and shiny.  And a lot of times the picks/players seem at least a little overvalued--which can make it hard to find value there.  

But the 2nd year guys are different.  The shine has had a year to fade.  They're a lot easier to trade for.  

Each year, I try to target some of these guys as a buy low.  It feels a little harder this year, so many guys were really good.  

A few thoughts:

1.  Etienne.  Coming off injury, there are a lot of question marks.  He went from a top 5 pick to the end of the 1st round.  With Robinson's late season injury, I think he's in a good spot to see a lot of touches.  Lawrence threw him the ball a decent bit at Climson.  Obviously we'll see how the injury recovery has gone, but if he's good, this is one that could pay off nicely.  

2.  All the Quarterbacks.  Lawrence is probably still costly given how highly regarded he was coming out of college.  But I imagine most owners are feeling a little impatient after lackluster seasons from the QB's last year.  Sure, some guys are going to hold out to see what they develop into.  But they're probably cheaper than they were this time last year.  

3.  Stevenson.  I'm not sure his value has gone down.  But I don't think he'll cost what a starting RB goes for.  And Harris is set to be a Free Agent after this season.  I have little to no confidence the Pats will resign him.

4.  Terrace Marshall.  I'm not sure which way his career is going to go.  Historically disappointing season last year.  I had him neck and neck with Bateman in my rankings and took too much Marshall and not enough Bateman.  He may turn out to be a bust, and I certainly understand people waiting it out.  But he can be had pretty cheaply at this point, and the upside is certainly there.  

Love to hear other people's thoughts on good buy low or even sell high's from last year's class.

 

higgins

Footballguy
Chi RB Khalil Herbert — I think I heard Chi is going towards a wide zone blocking scheme, which benefits KH the most amongst their RB corps AND Montgomery is a UFA after this season. KH did very well with his limited touches on a struggling O last year — may be a very good buy-low opportunity. 

 

TripItUp

Footballguy
Stevenson seems incredibly undervalued to me...CBS doesn't even rank him as a top 40 dynasty RB.

Sermon should be a steal if the Niners cut him or trade him.  Shanny hates him, so both are in-play.

 
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barackdhouse

Footballguy
I kind of like Nico Collins and Josh Palmer as buy low 2nd year WRs. At RB maybe Gainwell is undervalued but even if true his ceiling is still capped. But I think he has a solid 3rd down role as well as RZ. As I've said elsewhere I only like to have maybe one of those guys in my RB room but he might be cheap enough right now. 

Also agree about most of the names above.

 

joey

Footballguy
Chi RB Khalil Herbert — I think I heard Chi is going towards a wide zone blocking scheme, which benefits KH the most amongst their RB corps AND Montgomery is a UFA after this season. KH did very well with his limited touches on a struggling O last year — may be a very good buy-low opportunity. 
On 3 out of 3 of my dynasty teams and is a firm HOLD for me. 

 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
1.  Etienne.  Coming off injury, there are a lot of question marks.  He went from a top 5 pick to the end of the 1st round.  With Robinson's late season injury, I think he's in a good spot to see a lot of touches.  Lawrence threw him the ball a decent bit at Climson.  Obviously we'll see how the injury recovery has gone, but if he's good, this is one that could pay off nicely.  
i got him for Pittman & a toss-in (Fuller). Have very high hopes and totally agree he’s a buy-low. The upside is off the charts. If he has even one big year in 2022 he could be flipped for quite a bit more, or kept as a RB1 for years to come. 

2.  All the Quarterbacks.  Lawrence is probably still costly given how highly regarded he was coming out of college.  But I imagine most owners are feeling a little impatient after lackluster seasons from the QB's last year.  Sure, some guys are going to hold out to see what they develop into.  But they're probably cheaper than they were this time last year.  
agree here too. Jets seem to be building around Z.Wilson, Bears say they’re all-in on Fields, Lance still has this dark cloud in the FF world. All 3 could be bargains to acquire now. Risk/reward favors the bold. 

3.  Stevenson.  I'm not sure his value has gone down.  But I don't think he'll cost what a starting RB goes for.  And Harris is set to be a Free Agent after this season.  I have little to no confidence the Pats will resign him.
god I hate Pats RBs or trying to figure out what BB will do with them. COULD Stevenson be a stud RB? he absolutely could. Will he? :shrug:  

FF managers better than me have gone mad trying to second guess BB in the running game. Has White been the Pats RB to own since what, Corey Dillon? 

4.  Terrace Marshall.  I'm not sure which way his career is going to go.  Historically disappointing season last year.  I had him neck and neck with Bateman in my rankings and took too much Marshall and not enough Bateman.  He may turn out to be a bust, and I certainly understand people waiting it out.  But he can be had pretty cheaply at this point, and the upside is certainly there. 
I like the player, I don’t love the Panthers. DJM seems wasted there. What a tease those first couple weeks were last year. The QB situation there is less than ideal. It does create a buy-low opportunity, but it seems like a long-term prospect, since the Panthers need to improve at QB for it to pay off. 

 
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Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
How do you figure?  Have you tried to get him recently because he was sky high not too long ago.
Yeah, agree.  The WR DET drafted seems like more of a threat to Chark. I guess with Swift & Hock coming back healthy that’s a concern, but that was always the expectation.

I am a shareholder and have no idea what to expect, but I certainly wouldn’t sell low after that 5-game stretch at the end of last year. 

 

finfansteve

Footballguy
Love this topic. Way more relevant than the threads of what rookies to draft this year. Got rid of a couple firsts in this draft so this topic is very relevant to those of us who got out of the first few rounds in this years rookie drafts 

 
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foxco

Footballguy
Yeah, agree.  The WR DET drafted seems like more of a threat to Chark. I guess with Swift & Hock coming back healthy that’s a concern, but that was always the expectation.

I am a shareholder and have no idea what to expect, but I certainly wouldn’t sell low after that 5-game stretch at the end of last year. 
Overall I'm bullish on Amon, he's legit, but no way he commands the type of targets he was getting end of last season. I think some people may have soured on him a bit after Williams was drafted (and Chark to a certain extent) so if you believe in him I think it's worth seeing if he's available at a discount due to more targets being available this season... he won't be free but could come a bit cheaper than before the offseason. On my end I'm holding. 

 

titusbramble

Footballguy
Stevenson seems incredibly undervalued to me...CBS doesn't even rank him as a top 40 dynasty RB.

Sermon should be a steal if the Niners cut him or trade him.  Shanny hates him, so both are in-play.


Been trying to acquire Sermon for the past couple of months, cannot get him for anywhere near a reasonable value

 

jm192

Footballguy
Man I hope y'all right about Herbert. 

Buy low:

Nico Collins 

Amari Rodgers
I'm bullish on Nico.  A little unsure how Cooks/Nico/Metchie shake out.  Maybe Metchie in the slot for now and in a year or 2 Cooks moves on.  

 

cloppbeast

Footballguy
How do you figure?  Have you tried to get him recently because he was sky high not too long ago.
I haven't tried to get Amon-Ra since Jameson went there. But I just checked with ktc and it seems you're right. He's still at about 1.10 although on fall. I feel like id be happy if I could get him for 2.02.

 

joey

Footballguy
Been trying to acquire Sermon for the past couple of months, cannot get him for anywhere near a reasonable value


What is reasonable? 3rd?
i sold Sermon around 2 weeks ago when offered a 2023 2nd (likely mid round). Smash accepted even though I know there's risk that he turns into what the 9ers drafted him to be. But then the 9ers draft another RB (or was it 2?) this year as well, so I’m glad to have zero shares of the 9ers backfield to worry about. 

 

Gally

Footballguy
i sold Sermon around 2 weeks ago when offered a 2023 2nd (likely mid round). Smash accepted even though I know there's risk that he turns into what the 9ers drafted him to be. But then the 9ers draft another RB (or was it 2?) this year as well, so I’m glad to have zero shares of the 9ers backfield to worry about. 
I still don't understand this sentiment.  The 49ers have been very good for fantasy RB's.  Going into each game you know who is going to get the bulk of the work and they have been very good.  The only thing that has changed who that bell cow is has been injuries.   You may say "but, but Sermon was supposed to be the guy and he never did anything" well the season started with Mostert as the lead guy and Sermon was inactive.  Mostert got hurt and Mitchell took over and never looked back.  

Basically, if you have the 49ers lead back you are in good shape fantasy wise.  Having the whole backfield is even better since Mitchell has proven to be a bit fragile.  If he goes down you have the next guy (although at this point it isn't clear who the next guy is).  I really don't think owning this backfield is a bad thing in any way.  

 

Gally

Footballguy
Overall I'm bullish on Amon, he's legit, but no way he commands the type of targets he was getting end of last season. I think some people may have soured on him a bit after Williams was drafted (and Chark to a certain extent) so if you believe in him I think it's worth seeing if he's available at a discount due to more targets being available this season... he won't be free but could come a bit cheaper than before the offseason. On my end I'm holding. 
I think Amon Ra is a better NFL player than fantasy player.  Last year was a perfect storm to end the season and he benefited hugely.  This year there will be many more mouths to feed and he should fall back into a WR2/3 for fantasy purposes.  Nowhere near what his asking price is at this point.  If I had him I would be looking to sell at these high values because I don't think he lives up to the fantasy finish of last year.  But I do think he is a very good football player.  

 

Dr. Octopus

Footballguy
Yeah, agree.  The WR DET drafted seems like more of a threat to Chark. I guess with Swift & Hock coming back healthy that’s a concern, but that was always the expectation.

I am a shareholder and have no idea what to expect, but I certainly wouldn’t sell low after that 5-game stretch at the end of last year. 
The fact that now both Chark and Williamson are there (with Swift and Hock healthy as you said) is what should worry St. Brown owners, since that 5 game stretch coincided with him being the only option in the passing game. He's a good player so will not fall off the face of the Earth but his upside is now capped and if he's anything more than your WR3 you could find yourself in trouble.

 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
The fact that now both Chark and Williamson are there (with Swift and Hock healthy as you said) is what should worry St. Brown owners, since that 5 game stretch coincided with him being the only option in the passing game. He's a good player so will not fall off the face of the Earth but his upside is now capped and if he's anything more than your WR3 you could find yourself in trouble.
I don’t disagree. I pointed out the Swift & Hock part too. 

The WR don’t concern me much. They’re not likely to be eating into ARSB’s short-intermediate targets. 

As for Hock & Swift, yes they cap ARSB’s ceiling, but IMO QB rapport isn’t overrated. Goff clearly sees ARSB as a safety valve, and what helps his upside is that reportedly the TE’s coach who schemed ARSB and encouraged the Lions to use him like that last year has been promoted to OC. So a WR who’s a favorite of the QB and OC might be a good thing for him.

I don’t think he’ll be what he was down the stretch, as that was other-worldly.  but I do think the naysayers are overlooking the potential upside. 

 
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menobrown

Footballguy
The fact that now both Chark and Williamson are there (with Swift and Hock healthy as you said) is what should worry St. Brown owners
I truly don't see it that way. Jameson  and Chark likely won't even play a lot together and both of them are more field stretchers which helps ASB.

He won't close like he did last year otherwise, that's first round pick kind of stuff, but in general I like his outlook more then after this off-season then I expected because I knew Detroit would add WR's, and these are the kind I like to see added.

 

joey

Footballguy
I still don't understand this sentiment.  The 49ers have been very good for fantasy RB's.  Going into each game you know who is going to get the bulk of the work and they have been very good.  The only thing that has changed who that bell cow is has been injuries.   You may say "but, but Sermon was supposed to be the guy and he never did anything" well the season started with Mostert as the lead guy and Sermon was inactive.  Mostert got hurt and Mitchell took over and never looked back.  

Basically, if you have the 49ers lead back you are in good shape fantasy wise.  Having the whole backfield is even better since Mitchell has proven to be a bit fragile.  If he goes down you have the next guy (although at this point it isn't clear who the next guy is).  I really don't think owning this backfield is a bad thing in any way.  
 I get it. Heck, I owned Mostert and Wilson 2 years ago and Mostert/Wilson/Sermon last year. I guess I’m just not good at figuring out which one of the 9ers RBs will inevitably get hurt on any given week so I’m not clogging my roster with 2-3 RBs just to ensure I have the RB that puts up great numbers that week. 

 

Dr. Octopus

Footballguy
I truly don't see it that way. Jameson  and Chark likely won't even play a lot together and both of them are more field stretchers which helps ASB.

He won't close like he did last year otherwise, that's first round pick kind of stuff, but in general I like his outlook more then after this off-season then I expected because I knew Detroit would add WR's, and these are the kind I like to see added.
I mean sure - it's easy to dismiss the new WRs added as being in a different role and the claim that will not affect St. Brown (I don't think Williams or Chark are strictly deep threats, especially Williamson) - but targets are targets. And as stated a few times, Swift and Hockenson will be back and they are in "competition" for those short throws. If he only sees 1/2 of the targets he saw while he was the only game in town, that's a major hit. 

 

efactor

Footballguy
I kind of like Nico Collins and Josh Palmer as buy low 2nd year WRs.
Agree here

Palmer looked pretty good last year and obviously a great QB situation.  Was disappointed they resigned Williams though.  Allen just turned 30.  Might be a couple years for Palmer to make an impact, but nice upside.

They few times I saw Collins play last year, he struck me as being very smooth for his size.  

Both guys I am holding

 

cloppbeast

Footballguy
He's a good player so will not fall off the face of the Earth but his upside is now capped and if he's anything more than your WR3 you could find yourself in trouble.
I'll give up a 2.01 for a 22 y.o. wr3. Whoever else I would pick at such point is guaranteed much less. A bird in the hand...

This without mentioning the upside too, which is underappreciated. I mean, he was wr #5 for 6 games, or whatever. He may or may not do this ever again. But to me, he has the same upside as any other 2nd year player coming off the year he had.

I don't agree with throwing shade on on what this young man did as a 21 year old rookie either. Whatever the circumstances, he made it happen on the field better than any other pass catcher for the Lions last year.

 
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Dr. Octopus

Footballguy
I don't agree with throwing shade on on what this young man did as a 21 year old rookie either. Whatever the circumstances, he made it happen on the field better than any other pass catcher for the Lions last year.
I don't think anyone is doing that and  it's kind of an odd thing to say on a fantasy football message board where we need to speculate on what happens in the future.

It's a fact that his big stretch of games came with a most of the team's top skill players on the sidelines. It's also a fact that right now Hock and Swift will be back to start the season and the team added a decent free agent that many very very high on in the past and one of the top rookie WRs in the class (the best for many). Those are the facts we need to consider when we need to project targets. Do you think St. Brown sees the same % of targets he did the last few weeks of 2021 in 2022, if all the players I discussed are healthy? If you do that's fine, but I do not.

I said he's a good player and it is very promising for him that he did step up and perform when the team needed him. No one is taking that away from him.

 

cloppbeast

Footballguy
I don't think anyone is doing that and  it's kind of an odd thing to say on a fantasy football message board where we need to speculate on what happens in the future.

It's a fact that his big stretch of games came with a most of the team's top skill players on the sidelines. It's also a fact that right now Hock and Swift will be back to start the season and the team added a decent free agent that many very very high on in the past and one of the top rookie WRs in the class (the best for many). Those are the facts we need to consider when we need to project targets. Do you think St. Brown sees the same % of targets he did the last few weeks of 2021 in 2022, if all the players I discussed are healthy? If you do that's fine, but I do not.

I said he's a good player and it is very promising for him that he did step up and perform when the team needed him. No one is taking that away from him.
If people expected 10 targets a game in future, I suspect he'd be valued a lot higher than a late 1st.

 
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Dr. Octopus

Footballguy
If people expected 10 targets a game in future, I suspect he'd be valued a lot higher than a late 1st.
If some one is selling for a second round pick, I would have no issues with some one buying. But I don't think he's a "buy low" because I think his owners probably over-rate him, not under-rate him - which is evidenced by many in here not thinking Chark or Williams are a threat to his targets - and thus you can't "buy low" on him.

If one truly could buy at a discount, then he would be a good player for this topic, I'm not sure that is the case.

 
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foxco

Footballguy
FWIW, Fantasy Sharks on MFL projects Amon Ra for about the same in terms of catches, yds, TDs this season. Do think his YPC could improve from 10 a bit if the deep WRs are pulling coverage. 

In a TE premium league I'm trying to get Tommy Tremble for a late rookie pick. Not that I expect that much from him this year but like his talent long term. 

 

 

cloppbeast

Footballguy
If some one is selling for a second round pick, I would have no issues with some one buying. But I don't think he's a "buy low" because I think his owners probably over-rate him, not under-rate him - which is evidenced by many in here not thinking Chark or Williams are a threat to his targets - and thus you can't "buy low" on him.

If one truly could buy at a discount, then he would be a good player for this topic, I'm not sure that is the case.
I would pay a late 1st and consider that a buy low also.

Everything I read is dogging on Amon-Ra, calling him a sell high and what not, or unsustainable. This makes me think I might be able to get him for a 2nd even which is why I mentioned it. But you bring up a good point where the owners might don't agree, maybe are a) greedy or b) don't read the same things. It's hard to find somebody standing up for him, but everybody who does perhaps has him on their team. It's a bit of a weird market.

 

Lehigh98

Footballguy
2.  All the Quarterbacks.  Lawrence is probably still costly given how highly regarded he was coming out of college.  But I imagine most owners are feeling a little impatient after lackluster seasons from the QB's last year.  Sure, some guys are going to hold out to see what they develop into.  But they're probably cheaper than they were this time last year.  
I've been trying to buy all of them in SF but everyone that drafted them seems to prefer to hold on and hope for the best instead of taking any bit of loss.

I did trade for TLaw early in a SF dispersal draft because there weren't many young (or any) QB options.  Traded my 4th and 5th round dispersal picks which became Elijah Moore and Cam Akers for TLaw and a 15th round pick which became Calvin Ridley (or you could say Zay Flowers, I had two picks back-to-back there).

 

menobrown

Footballguy
I mean sure - it's easy to dismiss the new WRs added as being in a different role and the claim that will not affect St. Brown (I don't think Williams or Chark are strictly deep threats, especially Williamson) - but targets are targets. And as stated a few times, Swift and Hockenson will be back and they are in "competition" for those short throws. If he only sees 1/2 of the targets he saw while he was the only game in town, that's a major hit. 


Swift and Hockenson played some of the games he got off and other WR's got decent target share some weeks. He also had to endure two starts by Tim Boyle.

I don't see his targets coming close to being cut in half from the time he took off, not close. When people say that I just assume they don't think he's very good and was just a by product of targets.

 

Dr. Octopus

Footballguy
Swift and Hockenson played some of the games he got off and other WR's got decent target share some weeks. He also had to endure two starts by Tim Boyle.

I don't see his targets coming close to being cut in half from the time he took off, not close. When people say that I just assume they don't think he's very good and was just a by product of targets.
I think some one can believe he’s good and also believe he’ll see a drop in targets. I’m not sure the two stances are necessarily contradictory.

 

cloppbeast

Footballguy
I think some one can believe he’s good and also believe he’ll see a drop in targets. I’m not sure the two stances are necessarily contradictory.
Any receiver in the 11 target per game will likely receive less targets the next year. You could call this regression to the mean. It's the explanation for the 'curse' of 370 carries as well.

You're dying everyday after you're born.

 

Gally

Footballguy
I think some one can believe he’s good and also believe he’ll see a drop in targets. I’m not sure the two stances are necessarily contradictory.
Right.  You can also think he will be a much better NFL player than FF player......which is where I fall.  I really like the player but I don't think he will return value in FF.  He will be overdrafted (although less so now after FA and the draft) and won't be a difference maker FF WR.  He will be in that large band of WR2/3 ish players that you can typically find fairly easily from year to year.  

 

zamboni

Footballguy
Re ARSB: have to give the guy a ton of credit last year. The fact that he did perform as well as he did being the only game in town shows how good of a player he is. No question that targets are earned, but at the end of the day there's only one football and there are plenty of other guys on that team who will also deservedly earn targets. To me, that's a valid reason why one could see a step down in his numbers even though he'll still be the same player.

 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
but targets are targets. And as stated a few times, Swift and Hockenson will be back and they are in "competition" for those short throws. If he only sees 1/2 of the targets he saw while he was the only game in town, that's a major hit. 
And of course, Swift and Hock are both mortal locks to play 17 games in ‘22

:sarcasm:
I’m just sayin….if we’re making educated guesses about future targets and considering facts then we need to look at Swift & Hock’s track record of poor health. 

Hock started 12, 16, 12 games. I’d bet he’s somewhere in the middle this year & will set the O/U at 14.

Swift has played in 13, 13, but only started 4 games each of his 1st two seasons. I’ll put the O/U on Swift at 12 games played. 

I will not assume ARSB’s targets drop by half. That seems preposterous. Even given good health for Hock & Swift, a generous assumption about the latter, I’ll say he loses 25% of his targets. He won’t average 11 receptions. 6-8 isn’t unreasonable, and they also used him effectively on sweeps (7/61/2).

I think his current value in dynasty is pretty fair. I agree with @Gallythat he’ll be over-drafted in  redraft. 

 
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Dr. Octopus

Footballguy
And of course, Swift and Hock are both mortal locks to play 17 games in ‘22

:sarcasm:
I’m just sayin….if we’re making educated guesses about future targets and considering facts then we need to look at Swift & Hock’s track record of poor health. 

Hock started 12, 16, 12 games. I’d bet he’s somewhere in the middle this year & will set the O/U at 14.

Swift has played in 13, 13, but only started 4 games each of his 1st two seasons. I’ll put the O/U on Swift at 12 games played. 

I will not assume ARSB’s targets drop by half. That seems preposterous.even given good health for Hock & Swift, a generous assumption about the latter, I’ll say he loses 25% of his targets. He won’t average 11 receptions. 6-8 isn’t unreasonable, and they also used him effectively on sweeps (7/61/2).

I think his current value in dynasty is pretty fair. I agree with Gally that he’ll be over-drafted in redraft. 
So it’s a “fact” that Hock or Swift will get hurt. Got it.

 

zamboni

Footballguy
1.  Etienne.  Coming off injury, there are a lot of question marks.  He went from a top 5 pick to the end of the 1st round.  With Robinson's late season injury, I think he's in a good spot to see a lot of touches.  Lawrence threw him the ball a decent bit at Climson.  Obviously we'll see how the injury recovery has gone, but if he's good, this is one that could pay off nicely.  
I do like the Etienne call. The injury is still a concern, but if he recovers nicely, he could have a very nice year - particularly in PPR leagues.

 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
I do like the Etienne call. The injury is still a concern, but if he recovers nicely, he could have a very nice year - particularly in PPR leagues.
Ironically, his upside now with Robinson recovering from his own catastrophic injury might be even higher than it was when ETN was drafted in rookie drafts last year.

Where he was thought of primarily as a PPR back this time last year, he could well have “feature back” upside if he is fully recovered and dominates touches in Pederson’s offense.

 

zamboni

Footballguy
Gainwell is another guy I'm looking to buy cheap. It's a really crowded backfield and unclear whether Gainwell will ever be more than the lesser half of an RBBC, but Sanders is almost assuredly going to walk in FA next year and Scott seems to be mainly a good depth/break glass in case of emergency piece. If Sanders gets hurt yet again or the coaching regime sours on him, Gainwell could get a bigger opportunity this year.

 

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