Other than the obvious differences between dynasty/keeper and redraft, auctions are no different for player valuation. Like you pointed out, an elite team coming out of the auction is usually going to have some portion of stud/elite players, some mid guys, and some sleepers that hit for bargain prices. Or you could go multiple studs and all bargin bins to complement them, etc.
I've never done a dynasty auction (done several redrafts before), but I'd probably look to walk away with 2-4 really good core players and then take shots on cheap underrated guys. You can always add mediocre depth players to fill out your lineup down the road, but once you miss out on the Graham/Julio/Demaryius types it might be years before you get another chance at a player of that caliber. My teams that have done well over the years from snake dynasty drafts inevitably had a core of 2-4 really good top level players to build on whereas my teams that have struggled were filled with mediocrities. From a pure team building standpoint, I strongly advocate going with a handful of really good players rather than a deep team of mid level talents.
That's kind of what I was thinking as well. In dynasty, you have time to add mid level guys later. They're easy to find. My guess is the elite guys are going to cost anywhere from 20-25% of the cap. Would you try to get as many as possible, even if it means it leaves you with 80% of your roster in the $1-2 level? That's kind of the way I'm leaning.
Yea, I would probably do something like that. Go BIG on 2-3 guys and then use the rest on sleepers. The specifics depend on how much you like the mid round guys and how likely you think they are to develop into top players in their own right. There's not much sense blowing funds on someone like Kendall Wright or TY Hilton if you think he's a WR2-WR3 lifer when you can just grab rookies and guys like Greg Jennings, Santonio Holmes, and Mike Williams for peanuts.
It's a lot easier to add depth around a core of awesome players than it is to convert a handful of mediocrities into awesome players. And since awesome players are the only ones who really matter in the grand scheme of things, it's all about finding the strategy that allows you to monopolize that group of players. Everything else is of minimal importance.
I've never done a dynasty auction, either, but as mentioned upthread, young studs are
so much more valuable in dynasty than in redraft that what looks "expensive" in auction dollars in the latter should probably be considered cheap in the former. I suspect this will be a market inefficiency you can leverage to your advantage; the top names in redraft auctions usually go for 30-35% of the cap, so that's the anchor point your opponents will latch on to - but, from a dynasty perspective, the big 6 or 8 have to be worth more than that, almost by definition.
I'd try as hard as I could to lock up, say, three of the top 15 names - the Megatron, McCoy, Julio, DT, Lacy bucket - expecting it to cost me 80% of my budget and considering anything less than that as "found money".
There's another big market inefficiency in auctions that I think you'll be able to leverage to your advantage in a dynasty format, which is the breakpoint between the "$1 guys" and the ">$1 guys". In a snake draft, there's an extremely marginal difference between the players at, say, pick 10.10 and 10.11 ... but in auctions, one can literally cost twice as much as the other. In dynasty, the guys going in this range generally fall into two buckets:
- Second-tier vets with a few productive years left (Rivers, Jennings, Sproles, Woodhead, etc.)
- Young guys with better-than-average talent but in bad situations (D. Rogers, Bryce Brown, R. Woods, L. Green, etc.)
If your opponents are halfway intelligent, there could be dozens of players in this "twilight zone" - many more than in a redraft auction - because the bidding will have been (or should have been) more top-heavy in the early stages. I think you'd want as many of your top-rated guys in these buckets as cheaply as you can get them ... basically, blow the rest of your budget here, and to hell with guys with 18th-round ADPs; why bother spending $1 on an 18th-round talent if you can get a 10th-round talent for the same price?
So, in the latter stages of the auction, my strategy would be to
personally nominate as many of the second bunch as you can who you wouldn't be willing to spend more than $1 on. If someone outbids you (they often will), great - they spent twice your market value on them. If not, great - you get a decent lottery ticket for the lowest possible bid. Meanwhile, let
others throw out the names in the first group and guys you like from the second group, then take them to $2. If they go to $3 on someone you wouldn't pay more than $2 for, let him go and wait for the next one. If not, you get a strong immediate contributor or a solid young prospect for two bucks.
The dynamics of every auction are different, of course - that's what makes auctions so much fun - but I would be hoping for my roster coming out to look like this:
- 2-3 bona-fide studs, preferably including at least 1 RB and 1 WR;
- Very few if any highly-talented but unproven guys like Allen, Patterson, Floyd, C. Michael, Ellington (they'll go for too much money to guys who missed out on the studs);
- Very few if any perennial #2 and #3 guys, regardless of age (you don't want them for the most part, and they'll be overpriced anyway);
- 8-10 older but productive veterans with 8th- through 12th-round ADPs (most of which you got for $2-4), almost certainly including a QBBC of a Romo / Dalton or a Brady / Tannehill - which is just fine by me, as in 1-QB leagues you can always get good QB value on the WW or in rookie drafts;
- 8-10 young sleepers / lottery tickets with 8th- through 12th-round ADPs, including at least 1 QB (most of which you got for $1, maybe a couple you went to $3 on)
That gives you a team that's both set up to win right out of the chute and with a lot of young firepower to compete in future years. It's basically the equivalent in a snake draft of trading away your 3rd- through 7th- and 14th- through 20th-round picks for two extra 1st-rounders and a bunch of 8th- through 12th-rounders ... a trade anyone would happily make in dynasty.
Best of luck and let us know how it goes. Oh, and post a link if you can when the time comes - I'd be very interested in seeing the results.
