[DYNASTY] Backyard Brawl IV Developmental Draft (1 Viewer)

[EBF]

I'm in the middle of another startup draft, this time for a 14 team dynasty league that allows 14 developmental prospects to be rostered in the initial draft. All current college players are eligible (except for 2010 draft prospects and 2010 signees). I thought people might be interested in the results. We start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, and 2 WR/RB/TE FLEX. Scoring is .05 pts per passing yard, .1 pts per rushing/rec yard, 4 pts per passing TD, 6 pts per rushing/rec TD with 1 PPR for RB/WR and 1.5 PPR for TE.

1. RB Mark Ingram, Alabama (4.03) Jr.

2. RB Trent Richardson, Alabama (5.12) So.

3. WR AJ Green, Georgia (5.13) Jr.

4. WR Michael Floyd, Notre Dame (5.14) Jr.

5. RB Ryan Williams, Virginia Tech (6.03) rSo.

6. RB Jacquizz Rodgers, Oregon State (6.05) Jr.

7. WR Jonathan Baldwin, Pittsburgh (7.03) Jr.

8. RB Dion Lewis, Pittsburgh (7.12) So.

9. WR Julio Jones, Alabama (8.02) Jr.

10. RB Bryce Brown, Tennessee (8.10) So.

11. RB Jamie Harper, Clemson (8.13) Jr.

12. WR Armon Binns, Cincinnati (9.01) Sr.

13. WR Andre Debose, Florida (9.09) rFr.

14. QB Andrew Luck, Stanford (9.10) rSo.

NOTES:

- Armon Binns was the only senior selected.

- There were four players selected who won't be eligible for the draft until 2012 at the earliest: RB Trent Richardson, RB Dion Lewis, RB Bryce Brown, and WR Andre Debose.

- Prominent undrafted players: QB Jake Locker, QB Ryan Mallett, RB Noel Devine, RB LaMichael James, WR DeAndre Brown

- No TEs were drafted despite the 1.5 PPR scoring.

 

[gheemony]

Locker will be good, but hard to justify a qb in this format.

 

[EBF]

6. RB Jacquizz Rodgers, Oregon State (6.05) Jr.

13. WR Andre Debose, Florida (9.09) rFr.

14. QB Andrew Luck, Stanford (9.10) rSo.

These were my picks. A little bit about each of them:RB Jacquizz Rodgers, Oregon State (6.05) Jr. - I had already drafted Cedric Benson and DeAngelo Williams. I think those guys have a couple good seasons left, but I needed some youth behind them and there weren't many talented young backs left after an early run wiped out the likes of Greene, Felix, and McCoy. I didn't want to draft any of the dog meat scrubs that will available in the mid-late rounds and I didn't like any of the second tier rookie backs enough to take them here, so I decided to dip into the college pool. Quizz has been productive for the past two seasons and although he lacks prototypical height, he's built stocky with excellent quickness and good speed. At best he could become a MJD/Westbrook/Rice type. At worst he should become another Darren Sproles. I strongly considered Dion Lewis here. In a vacuum I probably prefer him to Rodgers, but I didn't want to wait until 2012 unless I thought the talent gap between them was huge. I'm not sure it is.

WR Andre Debose, Florida (9.09) rFr. - This was a swing for the fences. Debose tore his hamstring in Fall camp last season. He hasn't played a down of college football and he's not expected to be at full speed for upcoming Spring practices. Why did I draft him? Because his talent is off the charts and he was one of the only players left on the board with obvious difference-maker potential. Debose was a five star high school recruit widely expected to step into Percy Harvin's role in the Florida offense. Urban Meyer called him the best high school football player in the country. I first saw him in the 2008 Under Armour All-America Game and immediately thought "NFL." He has a smooth stride that reminds me of Chad Johnson, but Debose is actually faster. Check him out

. My thinking on this pick was simple: if he recovers to 100% health, he will be a huge steal. If he doesn't, he will be a flop. I'm willing to take that risk in the second half of the 9th round. Everything I've read says he's expected to be ready in the Fall. QB Andrew Luck, Stanford (9.10) rSo. - There's almost no way to defend this pick since I took Luck far earlier than he should've gone. I've done a few drafts that allowed a limited number of developmental prospects and I've noticed a consistent phenomenon: as the dev cap approaches, you have to pick your guy earlier than his actual value dictates if you feel like he's a "must have" prospect. Debose and Luck likely would've been available several rounds later in an uncapped draft, but since there were only 2 dev slots left before I took them, I knew that it was either now or never. This league doesn't place a high premium on QBs, Luck probably won't help me for at least a year or two (if ever), and I drafted him ahead of several QBs who have a much higher consensus dynasty value at the moment. In order for him to justify this selection, he practically has to become a top 10 dynasty QB. Thing is, I don't think that's a huge stretch. It's a bit premature to speak about his pro potential, but I think he's probably the best NFL QB prospect in NCAA right now. Since I already drafted a good short term QB in Jay Cutler, my priority at the position was finding the best long term QB to groom behind him for the future. I went into the draft planning to tab Luck for that role and I couldn't talk myself out of it even with several safer options on the board. It was also a bit of a homer pick because I'm a Bay Area guy whose family has Stanford season tickets. Now it will even more fun to watch Luck's career unfold.

 

[The Real Hipster Doofus]

I'm in the middle of another startup draft, this time for a 14 team dynasty league that allows 14 developmental prospects to be rostered in the initial draft. All current college players are eligible (except for 2010 draft prospects and 2010 signees). I thought people might be interested in the results. We start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, and 2 WR/RB/TE FLEX. Scoring is .05 pts per passing yard, .1 pts per rushing/rec yard, 4 pts per passing TD, 6 pts per rushing/rec TD with 1 PPR for RB/WR and 1.5 PPR for TE.1. RB Mark Ingram, Alabama (4.03) Jr.2. RB Trent Richardson, Alabama (5.12) So. 3. WR AJ Green, Georgia (5.13) Jr.4. WR Michael Floyd, Notre Dame (5.14) Jr.5. RB Ryan Williams, Virginia Tech (6.03) rSo.6. RB Jacquizz Rodgers, Oregon State (6.05) Jr.7. WR Jonathan Baldwin, Pittsburgh (7.03) Jr. 8. RB Dion Lewis, Pittsburgh (7.12) So. 9. WR Julio Jones, Alabama (8.02) Jr. 10. RB Bryce Brown, Tennessee (8.10) So.11. RB Jamie Harper, Clemson (8.13) Jr.12. WR Armon Binns, Cincinnati (9.01) Sr.13. WR Andre Debose, Florida (9.09) rFr.14. QB Andrew Luck, Stanford (9.10) rSo. NOTES:- Armon Binns was the only senior selected. - There were four players selected who won't be eligible for the draft until 2012 at the earliest: RB Trent Richardson, RB Dion Lewis, RB Bryce Brown, and WR Andre Debose. - Prominent undrafted players: QB Jake Locker, QB Ryan Mallett, RB Noel Devine, RB LaMichael James, WR DeAndre Brown- No TEs were drafted despite the 1.5 PPR scoring.

A few thoughts....I definitely think thats a better spot for Richardson than the other draft you posted. I agree with you that Luck will end up as a better pro QB than Locker or Mallett. DeAndre Brown should have been drafted. On physical ability alone he is in the top 5.

 

[dirtyhalos]

.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

6. RB Jacquizz Rodgers, Oregon State (6.05) Jr.

13. WR Andre Debose, Florida (9.09) rFr.

14. QB Andrew Luck, Stanford (9.10) rSo.

These were my picks. A little bit about each of them:RB Jacquizz Rodgers, Oregon State (6.05) Jr. - I had already drafted Cedric Benson and DeAngelo Williams. I think those guys have a couple good seasons left, but I needed some youth behind them and there weren't many talented young backs left after an early run wiped out the likes of Greene, Felix, and McCoy. I didn't want to draft any of the dog meat scrubs that will available in the mid-late rounds and I didn't like any of the second tier rookie backs enough to take them here, so I decided to dip into the college pool. Quizz has been productive for the past two seasons and although he lacks prototypical height, he's built stocky with excellent quickness and good speed. At best he could become a MJD/Westbrook/Rice type. At worst he should become another Darren Sproles. I strongly considered Dion Lewis here. In a vacuum I probably prefer him to Rodgers, but I didn't want to wait until 2012 unless I thought the talent gap between them was huge. I'm not sure it is.

WR Andre Debose, Florida (9.09) rFr. - This was a swing for the fences. Debose tore his hamstring in Fall camp last season. He hasn't played a down of college football and he's not expected to be at full speed for upcoming Spring practices. Why did I draft him? Because his talent is off the charts and he was one of the only players left on the board with obvious difference-maker potential. Debose was a five star high school recruit widely expected to step into Percy Harvin's role in the Florida offense. Urban Meyer called him the best high school football player in the country. I first saw him in the 2008 Under Armour All-America Game and immediately thought "NFL." He has a smooth stride that reminds me of Chad Johnson, but Debose is actually faster. Check him out

I've always liked the swing for the fences mentality.Great post and thread.

 

[snorlax]

All college players are eligible? That's a change from every other Backyard Brawl, if I'm not mistaken. Of course that's what I originally wanted, but we settled on the compromise of all players who would be draft-eligible in the next year.

This draft and your list of prominent undrafted players gives me hope for getting the player I want with my 14th pick, though maybe it won't really be an issue.

 

[Patoons]

All college players are eligible? That's a change from every other Backyard Brawl, if I'm not mistaken. Of course that's what I originally wanted, but we settled on the compromise of all players who would be draft-eligible in the next year.This draft and your list of prominent undrafted players gives me hope for getting the player I want with my 14th pick, though maybe it won't really be an issue.

Clay or Toon?

 

[Ernol]

6. RB Jacquizz Rodgers, Oregon State (6.05) Jr.

13. WR Andre Debose, Florida (9.09) rFr.

14. QB Andrew Luck, Stanford (9.10) rSo.

These were my picks. A little bit about each of them:RB Jacquizz Rodgers, Oregon State (6.05) Jr. - I had already drafted Cedric Benson and DeAngelo Williams. I think those guys have a couple good seasons left, but I needed some youth behind them and there weren't many talented young backs left after an early run wiped out the likes of Greene, Felix, and McCoy. I didn't want to draft any of the dog meat scrubs that will available in the mid-late rounds and I didn't like any of the second tier rookie backs enough to take them here, so I decided to dip into the college pool. Quizz has been productive for the past two seasons and although he lacks prototypical height, he's built stocky with excellent quickness and good speed. At best he could become a MJD/Westbrook/Rice type. At worst he should become another Darren Sproles. I strongly considered Dion Lewis here. In a vacuum I probably prefer him to Rodgers, but I didn't want to wait until 2012 unless I thought the talent gap between them was huge. I'm not sure it is.

WR Andre Debose, Florida (9.09) rFr. - This was a swing for the fences. Debose tore his hamstring in Fall camp last season. He hasn't played a down of college football and he's not expected to be at full speed for upcoming Spring practices. Why did I draft him? Because his talent is off the charts and he was one of the only players left on the board with obvious difference-maker potential. Debose was a five star high school recruit widely expected to step into Percy Harvin's role in the Florida offense. Urban Meyer called him the best high school football player in the country. I first saw him in the 2008 Under Armour All-America Game and immediately thought "NFL." He has a smooth stride that reminds me of Chad Johnson, but Debose is actually faster. Check him out

I ended up drafting Mark Ingram and Ryan Williams, and Trent Richardson and Dion Lewis. In a format that requires 2 RB and permits 4 RB in the lineup, combined with the 14-team setup (28 starting RB minimum), young RBs should be the most valuable assets imo. So I planned on getting as many potentially elite RBs as possible. I would have drafted Jacquizz Rodgers too if EBF hadn’t taken him (and a few more in the 9-10th round range if EBF hadn’t taken 2 consecutive college players to reach the league limit). I went with these four college players in 4 consecutive rounds (rounds 4-7) to find out what it might be like to have the 1.1 and 1.2 in two consecutive years (i.e., Ingram and Williams in 2011 and Richardson and Lewis in 2012) to combine with Jennings/Roddy/McCoy. Should be interesting.

 

[doowain]

QB Andrew Luck, Stanford (9.10) rSo. - There's almost no way to defend this pick since I took Luck far earlier than he should've gone. I've done a few drafts that allowed a limited number of developmental prospects and I've noticed a consistent phenomenon: as the dev cap approaches, you have to pick your guy earlier than his actual value dictates if you feel like he's a "must have" prospect. Debose and Luck likely would've been available several rounds later in an uncapped draft, but since there were only 2 dev slots left before I took them, I knew that it was either now or never.

I drafted Armon Binns. This is exactly why I selected him when I did. There were only 3 dev slots left when I drafted him. It was a homer pick in some ways, but I really do believe he's crazy talented. I believe he's being lost in the mix with the Floyd/Baldwin/Green/JJones love in next year's draft. He was also overshadowed by Gilyard last year. In his first full season as a starter, all he did was put up nearly 900 yards and 11 TDs. At 6'4 205 he's a huge target with extremely strong hands. I really believe you'll learn his name this year. Pike leaving doesn't hurt as he played HUGE when Pike went down last year and Collaros stepped in. Collaros returns this year as well as the starter at QB and it'll be Binns' time to shine.It was his game tying TD catch against Pitt in that huge comeback win that sealed this pick for me...FWIW, I believe Kiper and McShay have him as #2 rated senior WR.

 

[jurb26]

I ended up drafting Mark Ingram and Ryan Williams, and Trent Richardson and Dion Lewis. In a format that requires 2 RB and permits 4 RB in the lineup, combined with the 14-team setup (28 starting RB minimum), young RBs should be the most valuable assets imo. So I planned on getting as many potentially elite RBs as possible. I would have drafted Jacquizz Rodgers too if EBF hadn’t taken him (and a few more in the 9-10th round range if EBF hadn’t taken 2 consecutive college players to reach the league limit). I went with these four college players in 4 consecutive rounds (rounds 4-7) to find out what it might be like to have the 1.1 and 1.2 in two consecutive years (i.e., Ingram and Williams in 2011 and Richardson and Lewis in 2012) to combine with Jennings/Roddy/McCoy. Should be interesting.

Wow, you did very well for yourself and clearly had the best draft IMO. At lest 2 of those guys are going to be 1.1 or 1.2 picks, in reality I think 3 of them will. Ingram, Richardson and Lewis are all going to be studs.

 

[Getinthemix]

I ended up drafting Mark Ingram and Ryan Williams, and Trent Richardson and Dion Lewis. In a format that requires 2 RB and permits 4 RB in the lineup, combined with the 14-team setup (28 starting RB minimum), young RBs should be the most valuable assets imo. So I planned on getting as many potentially elite RBs as possible. I would have drafted Jacquizz Rodgers too if EBF hadn’t taken him (and a few more in the 9-10th round range if EBF hadn’t taken 2 consecutive college players to reach the league limit). I went with these four college players in 4 consecutive rounds (rounds 4-7) to find out what it might be like to have the 1.1 and 1.2 in two consecutive years (i.e., Ingram and Williams in 2011 and Richardson and Lewis in 2012) to combine with Jennings/Roddy/McCoy. Should be interesting.

Wow, you did very well for yourself and clearly had the best draft IMO. At lest 2 of those guys are going to be 1.1 or 1.2 picks, in reality I think 3 of them will. Ingram, Richardson and Lewis are all going to be studs.

Plus you have most likely guaranteed yourself the 1.1 or 1.2 for at least another year or two.

 

[Patoons]

I took Green and Floyd back to back and had a third where I was seriously considering going with Baldwin. This draft next year is going to have some serious wide receiver talent. I was all set to go another guy sitting behind EBF 4 picks later (who wasn't drafted). I hate my RBs (Brown and Moreno), but am pretty satisfied with my WRs after going 2 developmentals early on.

I'll tell you what, I would have selected Lamichael James pretty early on if he hadn't been caught up in trouble with the law. He's just NASTY.

The interesting part about Ernol's strategy of going developmentals with 4 picks in a row is that RARELY do all the 14 picks pan out. A lot of times guys tank and fall of the prospect list. I can remember Kenny Irons being drafted #1 in all leagues. It will be interesting to see how his 4 picks pan out.

 

[RockHard]

Not to hijack the thread but it seems like it would be very difficult to find some one to take over an orphaned team, guys like Dubose who havent even played a college down yet are already rostered. A new owner would have to wait several years to effectively turn a team around.

 

[Patoons]

Not to hijack the thread but it seems like it would be very difficult to find some one to take over an orphaned team, guys like Dubose who havent even played a college down yet are already rostered. A new owner would have to wait several years to effectively turn a team around.

BB1 has been going since 04. Haven't had an issue filling orphaned teams.It's relatively easy for an owner to turn a team around, actually. There are two drafts (Developmental draft and rookie draft), which speeds up the turn around process. It's worked out very well to date.ETA: Dubose versus a late 9th rounder isn't going to make or break a team, anyway.

 

[Bruno2]

I took Green and Floyd back to back and had a third where I was seriously considering going with Baldwin. This draft next year is going to have some serious wide receiver talent. I was all set to go another guy sitting behind EBF 4 picks later (who wasn't drafted). I hate my RBs (Brown and Moreno), but am pretty satisfied with my WRs after going 2 developmentals early on.I'll tell you what, I would have selected Lamichael James pretty early on if he hadn't been caught up in trouble with the law. He's just NASTY. The interesting part about Ernol's strategy of going developmentals with 4 picks in a row is that RARELY do all the 14 picks pan out. A lot of times guys tank and fall of the prospect list. I can remember Kenny Irons being drafted #1 in all leagues. It will be interesting to see how his 4 picks pan out.

I was happy to get Baldwin where I did. I was sweating it out there for a couple picks, I thought I might have waited one round too long. As for James, I've watched every game he's played, he's one of those smallish guys, but fast. He led the nation in runs of 20+ yards, he was gonna be my next devy pick as well.

 

[EBF]

The interesting part about Ernol's strategy of going developmentals with 4 picks in a row is that RARELY do all the 14 picks pan out. A lot of times guys tank and fall of the prospect list. I can remember Kenny Irons being drafted #1 in all leagues. It will be interesting to see how his 4 picks pan out.

Yea, I think this is an important point. You have to wait at least 1-2 years for your dev picks to make an impact, so I think it's important to get guys who are as close to "can't-miss" as possible. Otherwise it's just a waste of picks and roster space.I really like what I've seen from Dion Lewis and I considered taking him over Quizz in the 6th round, but do I really want to take two years of zeros from an early pick knowing that he probably won't be a first round NFL draft pick when he finally declares because he lacks prototypical height/long speed (I see Lewis as a Ray Rice type). Even if he eventually becomes a great pro, he might be drafted into a platoon situation and he might not contribute startable production for 3-4 years. That's a tough pill to swallow. The risk/reward proposition of these unknown quantities makes their value difficult to accurately assess. Look at the developmental picks from the Backyard Brawl 3 startup draft from two years ago:3.05 - RB Chris Wells3.06 - RB Knowshon Moreno6.03 - WR Michael Crabtree6.09 - RB LeSean McCoy6.13 - RB DeMarco Murray7.08 - RB CJ Spiller7.13 - WR Darrius Heyward-Bey8.14 - RB Stafon Johnson9.05 - RB Keiland Williams9.06 - RB Javon Ringer10.07 - WR Jeremy Maclin11.01 - WR Jarett Dillard11.06 - RB LeGarrette Blount11.07 - QB Tim TebowDefinitely a mixed bag. Crabtree, McCoy, Spiller, and Maclin are worth a lot more than what these owners paid for them. Murray, DHB, Johnson, Williams, Ringer, Dillard, Blount, and Tebow are worth significantly less. Wells and Moreno are worth about the same. There's clearly a lot of upside with dev picks because you can potentially get premium talents at discount prices, but there's always a chance that your player will go the way of DeMarco Murray or Darrius Heyward-Bey. I know that in the BYB3 draft I avoided the high profile devs early, thinking that it would be better value to wait until later in the draft and take some gambles on low profile prospects (Johnson and Dillard). It didn't work out. Neither one of them has justified the pick I spent on them. I did the same thing this year. Hopefully it will work out better.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I ended up drafting Mark Ingram and Ryan Williams, and Trent Richardson and Dion Lewis. In a format that requires 2 RB and permits 4 RB in the lineup, combined with the 14-team setup (28 starting RB minimum), young RBs should be the most valuable assets imo. So I planned on getting as many potentially elite RBs as possible. I would have drafted Jacquizz Rodgers too if EBF hadn’t taken him (and a few more in the 9-10th round range if EBF hadn’t taken 2 consecutive college players to reach the league limit). I went with these four college players in 4 consecutive rounds (rounds 4-7) to find out what it might be like to have the 1.1 and 1.2 in two consecutive years (i.e., Ingram and Williams in 2011 and Richardson and Lewis in 2012) to combine with Jennings/Roddy/McCoy. Should be interesting.

Wow, you did very well for yourself and clearly had the best draft IMO. At lest 2 of those guys are going to be 1.1 or 1.2 picks, in reality I think 3 of them will. Ingram, Richardson and Lewis are all going to be studs.

Plus you have most likely guaranteed yourself the 1.1 or 1.2 for at least another year or two.

 

[doowain]

I ended up drafting Mark Ingram and Ryan Williams, and Trent Richardson and Dion Lewis. In a format that requires 2 RB and permits 4 RB in the lineup, combined with the 14-team setup (28 starting RB minimum), young RBs should be the most valuable assets imo. So I planned on getting as many potentially elite RBs as possible. I would have drafted Jacquizz Rodgers too if EBF hadn’t taken him (and a few more in the 9-10th round range if EBF hadn’t taken 2 consecutive college players to reach the league limit). I went with these four college players in 4 consecutive rounds (rounds 4-7) to find out what it might be like to have the 1.1 and 1.2 in two consecutive years (i.e., Ingram and Williams in 2011 and Richardson and Lewis in 2012) to combine with Jennings/Roddy/McCoy. Should be interesting.

Wow, you did very well for yourself and clearly had the best draft IMO. At lest 2 of those guys are going to be 1.1 or 1.2 picks, in reality I think 3 of them will. Ingram, Richardson and Lewis are all going to be studs.

While I respect Ernol as an owner and I see the merit in this approach, it is much, MUCH too risky for a dynasty approach IMO. I think, as football fans (both college and NFL), we get a bit too caught up in the young guys and predicting the next big thing. While taking one or two devys is certainly manageable....spending so many early picks on these kids puts you in such a hole from Day 1 that you have to hope they start contributing right away or you are gonna be donating the first 3-4 years the league is in existence. I'd much rather take 2nd or 3rd year guys who are still crazy young, with nearly as much upside, who have much less risk, and can help me much sooner (Britt, Maclin, Harvin, Greene, McCoy, etc.)Having said that, I get why Ernol did this. In his opinion, those devys are appreciating assets. And in case he intends to move them in a year, he can do just that and his team will be able to compete immediately given the value those devys hold and the players he'll be able to get in return.To each their own, though.

 

[Ernol]

While I respect Ernol as an owner and I see the merit in this approach, it is much, MUCH too risky for a dynasty approach IMO. I think, as football fans (both college and NFL), we get a bit too caught up in the young guys and predicting the next big thing. While taking one or two devys is certainly manageable....spending so many early picks on these kids puts you in such a hole from Day 1 that you have to hope they start contributing right away or you are gonna be donating the first 3-4 years the league is in existence. I'd much rather take 2nd or 3rd year guys who are still crazy young, with nearly as much upside, who have much less risk, and can help me much sooner (Britt, Maclin, Harvin, Greene, McCoy, etc.)

Thanks Doowain. Keep in mind that when I picked Ingram, all of the good young backs (McCoy, Greene, Wells, etc.) and even rooks Spiller and Matthews were already gone. Just after picking Ingram and before taking Richardson (my second dev), all of the young potential stud WRs which you mention were also gone. So while I too (with the exception of Ingram) may have chosen to take or at least would have seriously considered taking one of those young WRs over a dev pick, I did not have that option. Instead, the young vets I could have chosen instead of Richardson which were drafted around his draft slot were Garcon, Celek, Braylon, Cotchery, Ronnie Brown, etc. (talent runs dry fast in a 14 teamer). Not any safer (and definitely not any more desireable) than taking Richardson imo.

 

[Ernol]

The interesting part about Ernol's strategy of going developmentals with 4 picks in a row is that RARELY do all the 14 picks pan out. A lot of times guys tank and fall of the prospect list. I can remember Kenny Irons being drafted #1 in all leagues. It will be interesting to see how his 4 picks pan out.

I don’t disagree with the notion that 14 picks, taken as a whole, will generate a number of busts (as shown in EBF’s post on the dev draft two years ago). However, I don’t think that is necessarily the case when you take only the top 2 RBs in each draft class. Examining the last few year’s probable top RB dev picks, we get the following:2008: Wells and Moreno – 1.1 and 1.2-1.3 in many rookie drafts (excellent result). 2007: McFadden and Ray Rice (the top 2 RBs I think) -- 1.1 and 1.4-1.8 in many rookie drafts (pretty good). 2009: Spiller and Jon Dwyer – the 2.10 pick and the 4.10 pick in this startup (very good to excellent result). I don’t recall Kenny Irons being the #1 (as I recall Adrian Peterson being the #1 dev that year), but nevertheless, you can say the same thing about taking the 1.1 or 1.2 in any rookie draft or taking a young potential stud early (see Eddie Royal whom I drafted in the third round overall in a few startup drafts last year). With the devs, you usually pay a little less than the 1.1//1.2 or the Eddie Royal types (reducing the risk somewhat). My contention (which I recognize could just be flat out biased by the last few years of results) is that the very best RBs in college (not the top 5 or so, but the top 2) are the safest of all players to take in the 4th-6th round range of a dev dynasty startup (particularly in leagues which require a minimum 2 RBs in the lineup). I figure that the level of competition in college is much weaker than the NFL so that the RBs achieving the consensus #1 and #2 ranking in college would be VERY likely to continue to light it up in college and therefore maintain their lofty status. So, while in college and before the NFL combine (which is the first occasion that the top prospects may be exposed), I believe these players, on average, will hold up better than any other choice. The trick is deciding when to trade these players away (either before draft time and/or NFL combine to reduce risk, or to roll the dice and keep the players on your roster up to or beyond their first NFL years due to their immense upside).

 

[doowain]

While I respect Ernol as an owner and I see the merit in this approach, it is much, MUCH too risky for a dynasty approach IMO. I think, as football fans (both college and NFL), we get a bit too caught up in the young guys and predicting the next big thing. While taking one or two devys is certainly manageable....spending so many early picks on these kids puts you in such a hole from Day 1 that you have to hope they start contributing right away or you are gonna be donating the first 3-4 years the league is in existence. I'd much rather take 2nd or 3rd year guys who are still crazy young, with nearly as much upside, who have much less risk, and can help me much sooner (Britt, Maclin, Harvin, Greene, McCoy, etc.)

Thanks Doowain. Keep in mind that when I picked Ingram, all of the good young backs (McCoy, Greene, Wells, etc.) and even rooks Spiller and Matthews were already gone. Just after picking Ingram and before taking Richardson (my second dev), all of the young potential stud WRs which you mention were also gone. So while I too (with the exception of Ingram) may have chosen to take or at least would have seriously considered taking one of those young WRs over a dev pick, I did not have that option. Instead, the young vets I could have chosen instead of Richardson which were drafted around his draft slot were Garcon, Celek, Braylon, Cotchery, Ronnie Brown, etc. (talent runs dry fast in a 14 teamer). Not any safer (and definitely not any more desireable) than taking Richardson imo.

Yeah, I know that. But there was room to move up and snag those guys.I see what you're doing though....I understand very well after the conversation we had following the Calvin/Dez/Spiller trade last year in UC. If this all works out, you will have an abundance of tradeable assets, worth far greater than what you paid.