EBF
Footballguy
Buy Low
Chris Perry – Perry is a no-brainer value pick in this year’s initial dynasty drafts. He’s a first round NFL RB available for the price of a mid-round selection. He’s this year’s Larry Johnson or LaMont Jordan, meaning he’s going to be worth a very high pick once he becomes a starter. If you have patience, he should pay off. That said, the injury concerns are a bit of an issue and he's signed for a few more years.
LenDale White – I think White offers the best draft value of this year’s rookie RBs. He should be starting by 2007, but he still comes quite a bit cheaper than the other top rookies. He's my pick to lead rookies in rushing yards and rushing TDs.
Matt Schaub – Schaub is fairly underrated as a dynasty prospect. He’s shown great promise throughout his NFL career and will almost certainly be a starter in 2007. This is another no-brainer pick because there’s virtually nowhere to go but up.
Ben Roethlisberger – While he’s certainly a household name, Roethlisberger still strikes me as an underrated dynasty player. I think he’s probably the best young QB in football and it’s scary to think what he might be able to accomplish if given more opportunities to throw the ball. I have him ranked as a top 15 dynasty player, and he’s typically available in the 40-60 range, so he seems like a steal. This is another pick that will take some patience though, because he likely won't produce big stats right away.
Ben Troupe – Troupe fits the mold of a pretty good buy-low pick. He’s a highly-touted prospect who has shown steady improvement throughout his two seasons. He won’t come super cheap, but he still seems like a bit of a bargain at his current price.
Ben Watson – Like Troupe, Watson is a former top prospect who has shown steady statistical improvement. He’s a popular sleeper pick this year and I think he’s a good bet to outproduce his draft slot.
Justin Fargas – Fargas is one of my top dynasty RB sleepers this year. He has plenty of critics, but I think he has a chance to make an impact in the NFL if he can stay healthy and get some touches. His physical skills are among the best of any NFL RB, and while it would be easy to dismiss him as nothing more than a workout warrior, you shouldn’t forget that he led the NFL in preseason rushing yards in 2003. Like fellow preseason rushing champs Rudi Johnson and Chester Taylor, Fargas could eventually emerge as a starter. The real beauty is that he’s available for pennies, so the risk is almost nonexistent.
William Green – Green is another great dynasty RB sleeper. Poor coaching, a weak supporting cast, and some personal problems have stunted his career, but he’ll be a free agent next year and he could surprise if he falls into a favorable situation. He could be the next Thomas Jones. Given his extremely low price, why not take a chance?
Ryan Moats – Moats is exactly the type of RB that I like to target in dynasty drafts. He’s a former first day draft pick who is still affordable due to his status as a backup. He was a great player in college and he performed pretty well in testing. He lacks ideal size, but he has a chance to make an impact down the road. The bad news is that Philadelphia re-signed Westbrook, meaning it may be a while before we get a good look at Moats.
Matt Cassel – Cassel was arguably the top rookie QB last year despite not starting a single game in college (he was Matt Leinart’s backup at USC). While I won’t quite predict another Tom Brady situation, Cassel is an intriguing late pick as a backup who could eventually emerge down the road as a starter. He’s already pushed Rohan Davey out of New England and won the backup job from Doug Flutie. Imagine what he might be capable of once he really gets settled in.
Laveranues Coles - Coles is a quality buy-low pick. He's exactly the kind of player that I like to target because he's a proven talent who has shown the ability to put up strong statistics. Conservative coaching and a QB carousel have hurt him, but we could see the Coles of old now that the team has brought in some decent QB help and a new coach.
Sell High
Shaun Alexander – It might be hard to accept, but now is the perfect time to trade Alexander. His value will never be higher and there’s a very good chance that it will sink considerably in the coming years. Though he’ll only be 29 next season, Alexander has logged a lot of carries throughout his year. More importantly, he’s coming off a fluke season in which he logged over 400 carries (including playoffs) and broke his personal regular-season rushing TD record by 11 scores. Alexander seems poised for a fall, but most people still view him as a consensus top three dynasty pick. Take advantage of this and sell him while you can still get top value.
Willie Parker - Parker is a nice player with good speed and home run hitting ability, but I think he’s a major reach in dynasty drafts. I simply don’t see him ever becoming the type of consistent scorer that you expect from a top 30-40 pick. Maybe he'll pull a Brian Westbrook and prove me wrong, but I'm pessimistic on his prospects.
LaMont Jordan – Jordan had a nice year in 2005, but I think he’s become grossly-overrated. He’s an average NFL starter and I don’t see him consistently putting up the kind of elite numbers that he’d need to produce in order to justify his high draft slot. I find it ridiculous that he’s being drafted above the likes of Randy Moss, Torry Holt, Larry Fitzgerald, Antonio Gates, and Anquan Boldin.
Edgerrin James – James has had a great career, but you have to wonder how much gas is left in the tank. He’s accumulated a lot of mileage over the years and I think it’s likely that he’ll experience a sharp decline within the next few years. Given how high he’s going, he’s just not worth the risk.
Chester Taylor – I’ve always liked Chester Taylor, and actually made a post recommending him as a dynasty buy low candidate prior to the 2005 season. Things have changed since then. Now that Taylor is in position to start for the Vikings, his value has increased significantly. While he could surprise us and become a top 10 back, I think his value is high enough to justify shipping him off right now.
Tiki Barber – Barber is a great player with a great work ethic. Unfortunately, he’s getting old and has accumulated a lot of touches. I see a limited shelf-life and a lot of risk. Not my kind of player.
Santana Moss – Moss had a great year in 2005, but he’s always struck me as inconsistent. Now that Washington has Lloyd and Randle El, I could see Moss’ numbers taking a little bit of a hit. He’s still a good player to have, but I expect his value to dip a bit in the next year.
Chris Chambers – Chambers finally lived up to his potential last year, but I don’t know if he’ll ever do it again. Daunte Culpepper is an overrated talent who has struggled without Randy Moss. Chambers caught less than 50% of his targets last year, making him one of the least efficient top 20 WRs in the NFL. Some of that is due to his poor QB situation, but I’d still argue that Chambers will never again achieve the elite numbers that he posted last year.
Ronnie Brown - Brown had a decent rookie year in which he flashed big play potential. With Ricky Williams out of town, he should get a chance to prove himself as a 300+ carry workhorse back. That's the good news. The bad news is that he was inconsistent last year and that he's going in the top 10 of most dynasty drafts. He certainly has the potential to justify his draft slot, but is he really worth a top 10 pick? Is he really a better bet for your team than someone like Antonio Gates, Larry Fitzgerald, Chad Johnson, or Anquan Boldin? I'd say no. There's too much risk that he'll be the next Kevin Jones, Julius Jones, or Willis McGahee. He has the potential to be great, but I don't think he warrants a first round pick.
Chris Perry – Perry is a no-brainer value pick in this year’s initial dynasty drafts. He’s a first round NFL RB available for the price of a mid-round selection. He’s this year’s Larry Johnson or LaMont Jordan, meaning he’s going to be worth a very high pick once he becomes a starter. If you have patience, he should pay off. That said, the injury concerns are a bit of an issue and he's signed for a few more years.
LenDale White – I think White offers the best draft value of this year’s rookie RBs. He should be starting by 2007, but he still comes quite a bit cheaper than the other top rookies. He's my pick to lead rookies in rushing yards and rushing TDs.
Matt Schaub – Schaub is fairly underrated as a dynasty prospect. He’s shown great promise throughout his NFL career and will almost certainly be a starter in 2007. This is another no-brainer pick because there’s virtually nowhere to go but up.
Ben Roethlisberger – While he’s certainly a household name, Roethlisberger still strikes me as an underrated dynasty player. I think he’s probably the best young QB in football and it’s scary to think what he might be able to accomplish if given more opportunities to throw the ball. I have him ranked as a top 15 dynasty player, and he’s typically available in the 40-60 range, so he seems like a steal. This is another pick that will take some patience though, because he likely won't produce big stats right away.
Ben Troupe – Troupe fits the mold of a pretty good buy-low pick. He’s a highly-touted prospect who has shown steady improvement throughout his two seasons. He won’t come super cheap, but he still seems like a bit of a bargain at his current price.
Ben Watson – Like Troupe, Watson is a former top prospect who has shown steady statistical improvement. He’s a popular sleeper pick this year and I think he’s a good bet to outproduce his draft slot.
Justin Fargas – Fargas is one of my top dynasty RB sleepers this year. He has plenty of critics, but I think he has a chance to make an impact in the NFL if he can stay healthy and get some touches. His physical skills are among the best of any NFL RB, and while it would be easy to dismiss him as nothing more than a workout warrior, you shouldn’t forget that he led the NFL in preseason rushing yards in 2003. Like fellow preseason rushing champs Rudi Johnson and Chester Taylor, Fargas could eventually emerge as a starter. The real beauty is that he’s available for pennies, so the risk is almost nonexistent.
William Green – Green is another great dynasty RB sleeper. Poor coaching, a weak supporting cast, and some personal problems have stunted his career, but he’ll be a free agent next year and he could surprise if he falls into a favorable situation. He could be the next Thomas Jones. Given his extremely low price, why not take a chance?
Ryan Moats – Moats is exactly the type of RB that I like to target in dynasty drafts. He’s a former first day draft pick who is still affordable due to his status as a backup. He was a great player in college and he performed pretty well in testing. He lacks ideal size, but he has a chance to make an impact down the road. The bad news is that Philadelphia re-signed Westbrook, meaning it may be a while before we get a good look at Moats.
Matt Cassel – Cassel was arguably the top rookie QB last year despite not starting a single game in college (he was Matt Leinart’s backup at USC). While I won’t quite predict another Tom Brady situation, Cassel is an intriguing late pick as a backup who could eventually emerge down the road as a starter. He’s already pushed Rohan Davey out of New England and won the backup job from Doug Flutie. Imagine what he might be capable of once he really gets settled in.
Laveranues Coles - Coles is a quality buy-low pick. He's exactly the kind of player that I like to target because he's a proven talent who has shown the ability to put up strong statistics. Conservative coaching and a QB carousel have hurt him, but we could see the Coles of old now that the team has brought in some decent QB help and a new coach.
Sell High
Shaun Alexander – It might be hard to accept, but now is the perfect time to trade Alexander. His value will never be higher and there’s a very good chance that it will sink considerably in the coming years. Though he’ll only be 29 next season, Alexander has logged a lot of carries throughout his year. More importantly, he’s coming off a fluke season in which he logged over 400 carries (including playoffs) and broke his personal regular-season rushing TD record by 11 scores. Alexander seems poised for a fall, but most people still view him as a consensus top three dynasty pick. Take advantage of this and sell him while you can still get top value.
Willie Parker - Parker is a nice player with good speed and home run hitting ability, but I think he’s a major reach in dynasty drafts. I simply don’t see him ever becoming the type of consistent scorer that you expect from a top 30-40 pick. Maybe he'll pull a Brian Westbrook and prove me wrong, but I'm pessimistic on his prospects.
LaMont Jordan – Jordan had a nice year in 2005, but I think he’s become grossly-overrated. He’s an average NFL starter and I don’t see him consistently putting up the kind of elite numbers that he’d need to produce in order to justify his high draft slot. I find it ridiculous that he’s being drafted above the likes of Randy Moss, Torry Holt, Larry Fitzgerald, Antonio Gates, and Anquan Boldin.
Edgerrin James – James has had a great career, but you have to wonder how much gas is left in the tank. He’s accumulated a lot of mileage over the years and I think it’s likely that he’ll experience a sharp decline within the next few years. Given how high he’s going, he’s just not worth the risk.
Chester Taylor – I’ve always liked Chester Taylor, and actually made a post recommending him as a dynasty buy low candidate prior to the 2005 season. Things have changed since then. Now that Taylor is in position to start for the Vikings, his value has increased significantly. While he could surprise us and become a top 10 back, I think his value is high enough to justify shipping him off right now.
Tiki Barber – Barber is a great player with a great work ethic. Unfortunately, he’s getting old and has accumulated a lot of touches. I see a limited shelf-life and a lot of risk. Not my kind of player.
Santana Moss – Moss had a great year in 2005, but he’s always struck me as inconsistent. Now that Washington has Lloyd and Randle El, I could see Moss’ numbers taking a little bit of a hit. He’s still a good player to have, but I expect his value to dip a bit in the next year.
Chris Chambers – Chambers finally lived up to his potential last year, but I don’t know if he’ll ever do it again. Daunte Culpepper is an overrated talent who has struggled without Randy Moss. Chambers caught less than 50% of his targets last year, making him one of the least efficient top 20 WRs in the NFL. Some of that is due to his poor QB situation, but I’d still argue that Chambers will never again achieve the elite numbers that he posted last year.
Ronnie Brown - Brown had a decent rookie year in which he flashed big play potential. With Ricky Williams out of town, he should get a chance to prove himself as a 300+ carry workhorse back. That's the good news. The bad news is that he was inconsistent last year and that he's going in the top 10 of most dynasty drafts. He certainly has the potential to justify his draft slot, but is he really worth a top 10 pick? Is he really a better bet for your team than someone like Antonio Gates, Larry Fitzgerald, Chad Johnson, or Anquan Boldin? I'd say no. There's too much risk that he'll be the next Kevin Jones, Julius Jones, or Willis McGahee. He has the potential to be great, but I don't think he warrants a first round pick.
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Good calls here, I think all 5 of these guys are bigtime sell highs coming off of either career years they'll never again match or having that "potential" to break out that they won't end up doing a la Andre Johnson the last few years.
We agreed on 12, disagreed on 8 (and some of those on just when to get those players).
Maybe it's just me, but if I rank a player ahead of another, I'd take the higher ranked player for the lower. (depending on need of course)
