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dynasty draft 2006 (1 Viewer)

odon

Footballguy
i think hawk and mario williams are the only IDP player that have a chance to go in the top 18. 3qb, 8rbs, 3wr, 2 te. what do you guys think? when do you reach for a IDP player in this dynasty draft. there are not many wrs to go after this year.

 
i think hawk and mario williams are the only IDP player that have a chance to go in the top 18. 3qb, 8rbs, 3wr, 2 te. what do you guys think? when do you reach for a IDP player in this dynasty draft. there are not many wrs to go after this year.
I usually won't take 8 RBs before an IDP like Hawk or Mario. It really does depend on what position Hawk plays though. If he's a MLB, I'd think he'd be worth close to Vilma, I sure wouldn't pass on Vilma for Greg Jones or Cedric Cobbs (similar situation in 2004), or to take it back a bit, the 8th RB over Julius Peppers seems a bad choice. OTOH, if Hawk plays SLB, he'd be a little better than DJ Williams, and I doubt I'd even take Hawk as my top LB at that point.Hawk is a true wildcard this year.

 
I'm all for looking at potential in the 8-16 range of a dynasty draft, but I'm with OZ, taking a flier on an RB with questionable size/skills etc over an IDP like Mario Williams or AJ Hawk in the late first/early second is usually a mistake.

I think those two are safe bets to end up in a position to be an every week starter for you. However, if a guy like Ernie Sims ends up going to MIN as the WLB in their new Cover-2 defense, though, you can bump him onto that short list as well.

Admittedly, I'm a little more likely to "reach" for these guys as high as the late first of a 12 team league. You need to have some idea where your leaguemates value these characters if you target them as must haves in the second tier of your draft.

For example, I needed to move up to 13 in one, but only 19 in another to get Odell Thurman, who I felt was a safer bet within the Maurice Clarett/Matt Jones/Ryan Moats tier of second level offensive players.

 
I think Mario, due to scarcity at the position and his freakish ability, will sneak into the early-mid 2nd. I think somebody will reach for Hawk at the end of the 2nd.

 
I think Mario, due to scarcity at the position and his freakish ability, will sneak into the early-mid 2nd. I think somebody will reach for Hawk at the end of the 2nd.
Sounds about right to me.
 
i think hawk and mario williams are the only IDP player that have a chance to go in the top 18.  3qb, 8rbs, 3wr, 2 te.  what do you guys think?  when do you reach for a IDP player in this dynasty draft.  there are not many wrs to go after this year.
I usually won't take 8 RBs before an IDP like Hawk or Mario. It really does depend on what position Hawk plays though. If he's a MLB, I'd think he'd be worth close to Vilma, I sure wouldn't pass on Vilma for Greg Jones or Cedric Cobbs (similar situation in 2004), or to take it back a bit, the 8th RB over Julius Peppers seems a bad choice. OTOH, if Hawk plays SLB, he'd be a little better than DJ Williams, and I doubt I'd even take Hawk as my top LB at that point.Hawk is a true wildcard this year.
I'm all for looking at potential in the 8-16 range of a dynasty draft, but I'm with OZ, taking a flier on an RB with questionable size/skills etc over an IDP like Mario Williams or AJ Hawk in the late first/early second is usually a mistake.

I think those two are safe bets to end up in a position to be an every week starter for you.  However, if a guy like Ernie Sims ends up going to MIN as the WLB in their new Cover-2 defense, though, you can bump him onto that short list as well.

Admittedly, I'm a little more likely to "reach" for these guys as high as the late first of a 12 team league.  You need to have some idea where your leaguemates value these characters if you target them as must haves in the second tier of your draft.

For example, I needed to move up to 13 in one, but only 19 in another to get Odell Thurman, who I felt was a safer bet within the Maurice Clarett/Matt Jones/Ryan Moats tier of second level offensive players.
:bow: 2 guys that get it :bow:
 
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I'm all for looking at potential in the 8-16 range of a dynasty draft, but I'm with OZ, taking a flier on an RB with questionable size/skills etc over an IDP like Mario Williams or AJ Hawk in the late first/early second is usually a mistake.

I think those two are safe bets to end up in a position to be an every week starter for you. However, if a guy like Ernie Sims ends up going to MIN as the WLB in their new Cover-2 defense, though, you can bump him onto that short list as well.

Admittedly, I'm a little more likely to "reach" for these guys as high as the late first of a 12 team league. You need to have some idea where your leaguemates value these characters if you target them as must haves in the second tier of your draft.

For example, I needed to move up to 13 in one, but only 19 in another to get Odell Thurman, who I felt was a safer bet within the Maurice Clarett/Matt Jones/Ryan Moats tier of second level offensive players.
Thanks. (wow, I could have used a Smiley there ;) http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=232637 )The only difference is I really liked Matt Jones's potential, really can't see putting him with Clarett/Moats. Aside from him, we agree completely. I suppose what I'm saying is there's some late 1st / 2nd round prospects I'll take ahead of IDPs, those that I'm comfortable with or can't pass on the potential. I certainly don't feel compelled to take a risk on a guy just because of some need to take offense instead of defense.

 
Interesting that I took Peppers at #8 in 2002 and thought that it was a mistake. While he may not be the statistical monster on a consistent basis that we think he should be, I guess he's been a solid every week starter (hasn't missed a game since 4-game suspension to end rookie season).

RB's drafted before Peppers:

William Green 1.01

DeShaun Foster 1.03

T.J.Duckett 1.04

Clinton Portis 1.07

RBs drafted after Peppers (16 teams):

Maurice Morris 2.02

Ladell Betts 2.03

Jon Wells 2.05

Chester Taylor 2.08

Brian Westbrook 2.09

Lamar Gordon 2.13

Travis Stephens 3.02

Josh Scobey 3.04

Verron Haynes 3.05

Luke Staley 3.06

Adrian Peterson 3.15

Najeh Davenport 4.07

Jarrod Baxter 4.14

Antione Womack 5.01

Larry Ned 5.09

Leonard Henry 6.06

Taylor (who I did draft) and Westbrook would have been the only decent selections with the first round pick. Every other runner selected would still be a dead roster spot.

 
Looking at further years, the trend continues. Some runner could certainly bust out down the line, but all-in-all the first few IDPs off of the board have substantially more value than the running backs selected after them.

2003

Troy Polamalu 1.12

Terence Newman 1.13

Terrell Suggs 2.01

Nick Barnett 2.07

Marcus Trufant 2.09

Artose Pinner 1.14

Lee Suggs 1.15

Musa Smith 1.16

Onterrio Smith 2.02

LaBrandon Toefield 2.11

Quentin Griffin 2.14

B.J.Askew 3.05

Avon Cobourne 3.08

Cecil Sapp 3.11

Brock Forsey 3.14

Dwone Hicks 4.01

Ahmaad Galloway 4.10

Earnest Graham 5.01

Dahrran Diedrick 5.04

Derek Watson 5.14

Andrew Pinnock 5.15

2004

Sean Taylor 1.12

D.J.Williams 1.13

Jon Vilma 2.01

Kenechi Udeze 2.06

DeAngelo Hall 2.08

Cedric Cobbs 1.15

Greg Jones 1.16

Michael Turner 3.09

Mewelde Moore 3.10

Troy Fleming 4.07

Quincy Wilson 4.08

Bruce Perry 4.11

Brandon Miree 6.01

Jammal Lord 6.03

Derrick Ward 6.06

Jarrett Payton 6.12

2005

Demarcus Ware 1.11

Derrick Johnson 1.13

Antrell Rolle 1.16

Thomas Davis 2.02

Barrett Ruud 2.04

Frank Gore 1.12

Maurice Clarett 1.15

Ryan Moats 2.01

Vernand Morency 2.08

Ciatrick Faison 2.13

Brandon Jacobs 3.02

Marion Barber 3.08

Alvin Pearman 3.16

Darren Sproles 4.06

Cedric Houston 4.09

Damien Nash 4.12

Lionel Gates 6.05

Jesse Lumsden 6.10

 
Drafting a RB with a late round pick is like purchasing a lottery ticket. Most people know it unlikely to pay off but the rewards is too great to pass up.

Besides last years the IDP value chart turned out to be almost totally upside down. Middle backers were drafted later but turned out to be some of the most productive players. Here's how they fell in one of my leagues

4.08 Odell Thurman, CIN LB

5.08 Lofa Tatupu, SEA LB

5.10 Kirk Morrison OAK LB

6.01 Channing Crowder, MIA LB

 

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