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Dynasty draft thread, with some analytics and a little IDP, and NO mocks (2 Viewers)

WOW ... don't know the source, but very negative on Gibbs non-perfect blocked runs.
I was ready to believe that Gibbs was Kamara 2.0. He could also be Kenyan Drake. Or a better JD McKissick.

The size thing weighs on me, because if you aren't a special runner at that size, you will most likely wind up a 3rd down back who doesn't get many carries. Which is helpful for NFL teams, but caps your fantasy value.
 
A reminder that speed matters but is not everything...

7 RBs ran <=4.4 at the 2022 NFL combine:

2 drafted in round 2.

2 drafted in round 4.

1 drafted in round 5.

1 drafted in round 7.

1 undrafted.

Evaluate the profile as a whole and never get carried away with one input.
 
Seven RBs were graded solidly within Day 2 in Dane Brugler's Beast:

Bijan, Gibbs, Charbo, Achane, Spears, Roschon, Tank

Four more: Z Evans, Izzy, Kendre, Gray got R3/4 grades

The Beast released today. Haven't gotten into it yet.
 

𝗔𝗱𝗷𝘂𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗖𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗹𝗲𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 % 𝗼𝗻 𝗜𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗺𝗲𝗱𝗶𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗗𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗔𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗺𝗽𝘁𝘀
(2023 CFB Season | Power 5 Conferences only)

Comp % adjusted for drops + throwaways

Best overall ADJ% of '24 Draft QBs
Bo Nix: 85.4%
JJ McCarthy: 80.0%
Jayden Daniels: 79.6%
 
2022-23 YPRR among notable incoming rookie WRs

Marvin Harrison Jr 3.31
Malik Nabers 3.05

*Johnny Wilson 2.90
Troy Franklin 2.83
Rome Odunze 2.72
Ladd McConkey 2.71
*Javon Baker 2.59
Xavier Worthy 2.03

Brian Thomas 1.99
Keon Coleman 1.91
Adonai Mitchell 1.64
 
I’m a big fan of players who produce in the SEC – & for that reason I’m a fan of Ray Davis & Jaylen Wright.Davis led Vanderbilt & Kentucky in rushing in back-to-back seasons (after also leading Temple in rushing as a true freshman).& broke Kentucky’s single-season TD record (20).Wright posted 146/875/10 (6.0 YPC) as a sophomore at TEN & finished 2nd in YPC (7.4) amongst ALL NCAA RB’s in 2023 (137/1013/4).Both have demonstrated tackle-breaking ability (Davis broke 51 tackles on 199 rushing attempts in 2023; Wright finished 7th out of 223 RB’s w/ 4.35 YAC/attempt).Both have posted seasons with a 90.0+ PFF Rushing Grade.Both are capable receivers (1.25+ YPRR in 2023).& both are listed at 210+ pounds.I’m very excited to see where they land on Draft Day.

 
Drake Maye / UNC team grade ranks

2022 Pass Blocking - 47th (61.6)
2023 Receiving - 32nd (72.2)

Last among top 6 QB prospects for each of those seasons. Still led the P5 in Big Time Throws and BTT Rate in 2022 and was tied for 2nd among 2024 prospects in BTT Rate in 2023.
 
2023 WRs: % of catchable targets resulting in a 1D or TD [among my top-20]

Adonai Mitchell (76%)
Roman Wilson (75%)
Rome Odunze (74%)
Malik Nabers (70%)
Jermaine Burton (66%)
 
Round 1-2 WRs since the 2018 Draft at a <2.0 YPRR in college (via PFF)

DK Metcalf
Dante Pettis
Van Jefferson
Chase Claypool
Terrace Marshall
Tyquan Thornton
Jonathan Mingo

2024:
Keon Coleman
Brian Thomas Jr
Adonai Mitchell
Xavier Legette
Ricky Pearsall
Ja’Lynn Polk
Ainias Smith
 
Career Contested Target Rate [Screens Removed]
+ top 9 proj. WRs in class

Keon Coleman (29.5%)
Marvin Harrison Jr. (26.8%)
Malik Nabers (22.6%)
Brian Thomas (21.6%)
Adonai Mitchell (20.0%)
Rome Odunze (19.1%)
Troy Franklin (18.5%)
Xavier Worthy (17.0%)
Ladd McConkey (16.1%)
 
Most pressured DBs resulting in a sack or INT, round 1-2 QBs since the 2016 draft

Will Levis: 26.7%
Christian Hackenberg: 25.9%
Justin Fields: 25.6%
DeShone Kizer: 24.9%
Zach Wilson: 23.5%

2024 QBs
Jayden Daniels: 25.0%
Drake Maye: 20.5%
Caleb Williams: 20.3%
JJ McCarthy: 16.1%
 

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