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Dynasty draft thread, with some analytics and a little IDP, and NO mocks (1 Viewer)

massraider

massraider

Footballguy
The draft thread we have here is a lot of content. this is not a criticism, because @Faust rules, and deserves a free lifetime FBG Pro Platinum Membership, with 24" rims, and full undercoating. Or something. But there is a lot of content in there, mocks, and puff pieces, that are not helpful to me as a dynasty owner. Which is not to say that I ignore that stuff, but a good mock draft will NOT give you any more info to help your fantasy team. Mock drafts are for draft fans, which I am, and for casual fans (which guy are we getting in the 1st?).

I'm thinking about something more curated, a collection of good scouting reports, video breakdowns, maybe just quality video clips, tweets with interesting analytics, good breakdowns etc. Cool things we come across that seem useful, and we don't want to forget.

I think there might be a use for this, but I have selfish reasons for this as well. Often times I come across something, a good stat that looks poorly or favorable on a player, and it's a data point I will want to retain. I want to save it, to consider later when I am trying to rank a guy. But I will forget it, I might remember that I vaguely remember reading something that made me slightly less bullish on a guy, but if you don't remember exactly what it was, you aren't making the best decision you could be. Maybe this is only me, and everyone else is much more organized, and has a better memory than I do, and can pull all the data they want on draft day. If so, Hey! Good for you! Buh bye then.

I will definitely use this first post as a master list of the best links, if it turns out we need that.

The way that I use Twitter is that I make lists, which I keep updated pretty well.

This one here is a very incomplete list of Twitter draft guys who have a lean towards analytics, and focus on data. Any account people think I am missing, or can recommend, please do!

The other way I use it is by following a good amount of analysts, but I don't scroll. I never scroll. If you wanna see tweets regarding upcoming podcasts, scroll. I will search for a player, then filter just the accounts I am following, which eliminates noise, and it's a good place to start down a rabbit hole, looking for bad and good in a player.


The PFF Stock Exchange podcast I have really been OK with, they have been doing a series of top 5-8 guys at each position, which is a GREAT place to start if you are just starting to get into draft swing. Bear in mind, their rankings are all post-season, pre-combine. I think this is super interesting to track and remember, and see which players really move up or down rankings, because in my own experience, when I see a guy do that, I investigate further, and maybe I think the drop or rise is too much, and often times in rookie drafts, that's when you can score value, or avoid a bust.

NFL.com Zierlien rankings

That's a bookmark. One of the most respected guys.

Recommended analytics articles? Much appreciated.
 
Just read something at PFF that Bryce Young sets up deeper in the pocket, presumably to better see the middle.

That makes edge rushers' jobs much much easier.
 
massraider said:
Just read something at PFF that Bryce Young sets up deeper in the pocket, presumably to better see the middle.

That makes edge rushers' jobs much much easier.
Click to expand...
He was one of the most often sacked QBs in 2021. Got better in 22. (Seemed like he had sack problems still but the stats don’t reflect my apparently faulty memory)
 
CJ Stroud accuracy analytics:

What he needs to improve: We just talked about how good Stroud is when kept clean in the pocket (71.7% completion rate, 35 touchdowns, 93.4 PFF grade). Well, he is basically the polar opposite under pressure (41.3% completion rate, six touchdowns, 42.0 PFF grade).

The same could be said for most quarterbacks when facing pressure, but Stroud is particularly bad when the pocket collapses. He ranks 97th in PFF grade out of 144 qualifying QBs when under pressure. This is definitely an area he needs to improve on. Stroud is somewhat of a statue back there in the pocket and rarely ever breaks out to scramble. It’s weird because he was touted as a dual-threat QB when entering college, but he never really used his legs much during his time at Ohio State. He may have to uncork that at the next level, as he is sure to be under pressure far more in the NFL than he ever has been at Ohio State.


. Stroud has completed 25-of-54 passes, or 46.3%, that have traveled 20-plus yards through the air this season. That clip is 16th nationally among FBS quarterbacks with at least 20 such pass attempts, per PFF. The only Heisman finalist with a higher completion percentage in that depth is TCU’s Max Duggan, as he has hit on 34-of-68 passes traveling 20 or more yards downfield.

Stroud has logged a 92.6 PFF grade on deep throws, and his 21 big-time throws — a metric PFF reserves for passes “with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further down the field and/or into a tighter window” — in that depth are good for 14th in the country. His ability to take shots, and actually connect on them, have helped him rank third nationally this season in yards per attempt (9.4).

Stroud is a quick decision maker, even on downfield throws. Of the top-20 passers, in terms of deep passing completion percentage, he is one of eight to get the ball out, on average, under three seconds. His time to throw on such passes is 2.89 seconds, which is six hundredths of a second faster than he logged last season, according to PFF.
 
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theathletic.com

Bruce Feldman's 2022 college football Freaks List: Michigan's Mazi Smith is No. 1

One hundred players who showcase jaw-dropping physical traits at their respective programs.
theathletic.com theathletic.com

If you have never read Feldman's Freaks List, it's one of the best things about the draft there is.

It’s been almost two decades now since I began writing about the biggest Freaks in college football. Initially, there were 10 of ‘em. My premise was to spotlight the players who generate buzz inside their programs by displaying the unique physical abilities that wow even those who observe gifted athletes every day. The Freaks list is compiled with the help of many coaches, players and sports information directors, as well as NFL scouts from all over the nation.


1. Mazi Smith, Michigan, defensive tackle​

His former teammate, Aidan Hutchinson, almost was our top guy in 2021, but this year a Wolverine is the No. 1 Freak in college football. The 6-foot-3, 337-pound senior has rare power and agility. So rare, in fact, it’s hard to find the right superlative to begin with. But let’s start with this: Smith does 22 reps on the bench press, but that’s with 325 (not 225). He close-grip benched 550 pounds. He vertical-jumps 33 inches. He broad-jumped 9-4 1/2. Smith, who had 37 tackles last season, has clocked a 4.41 shuttle time, which would’ve tied the best by any defensive tackle at this year’s NFL Scouting Combine, and it would’ve been better than any defensive tackle weighing 310 pounds or more in the past decade. His 6.95 3-cone time would’ve been by far the fastest among defensive tackles in Indianapolis. The fastest was 7.33. Smith’s 60-yard shuttle time is 11.90.

The Wolverines do a reactive plyo stairs test, which is a series of seven 26-inch high stairs that players attempt to jump up as fast as possible. The team record is 2.21 seconds. Smith did it in 2.82. To better gauge just how impressive that is, Hutchinson, some 60 pounds lighter than Smith, did it in 2.57.
 
Which notable WRs created the most 15-plus yard receptions per target in the 2023 class?

34% Jaxon Smith-Njigba (90th percentile)
32% Marvin Mims (83rd)

26% Jalin Hyatt (57th)
25% Jordan Addison (54th)
25% Quentin Johnston (54th)
24% Tyler Scott (52nd)

Data since 2014 per PFF.
 
massraider said:
Since 2014 rookie WRs with
🔸Early Declare
🔸TD Share >30%
🔸Target Share >20%
🔸>= 2.9 Y/TPA
🔸Day 1 or 2 DC

Have a 'usable' hit rate of 79.2%

And an 'elite' hit rate of 37.5%

The 2023 rookies who could join
🔹Josh Downs
🔹Jalin Hyatt
🔹Quentin Johnston
🔹Jordan Addison
Click to expand...
if you had to call your shot, who is going to be the elite one here?
 
IHEARTFF said:
if you had to call your shot, who is going to be the elite one here?
Click to expand...
Addison. He's skinnier than you want, but he's like butter playing WR. Just smooth in his movements. I love that he dominated at two schools as well.

Downs is teeny, although he's a target of mine as well, Hyatt looks like a deep threat WR2, and QJ isn't as comfortable/natural as Addison.

QJ and Boutte are the WRs it's fashionable to be down on, so I'm keeping an eye on them, seeing how far they slip. Looking at @socrates rankings, there's a tier break right after QJ that I agree with. I can be down on QJ compared to Gibbs or Addison, but dropping him below that, I probably won't do that. He still has alpha size and WR1 upside, in the 1st round I don't want to draft shorter slot guys, hoping to find the next Steve Smith. That's what the 2nd round is for.
 
massraider said:
IHEARTFF said:
if you had to call your shot, who is going to be the elite one here?
Click to expand...
Addison. He's skinnier than you want, but he's like butter playing WR. Just smooth in his movements. I love that he dominated at two schools as well.

Downs is teeny, although he's a target of mine as well, Hyatt looks like a deep threat WR2, and QJ isn't as comfortable/natural as Addison.

QJ and Boutte are the WRs it's fashionable to be down on, so I'm keeping an eye on them, seeing how far they slip. Looking at @socrates rankings, there's a tier break right after QJ that I agree with. I can be down on QJ compared to Gibbs or Addison, but dropping him below that, I probably won't do that. He still has alpha size and WR1 upside, in the 1st round I don't want to draft shorter slot guys, hoping to find the next Steve Smith. That's what the 2nd round is for.
Click to expand...
Interesting, thanks. I really disliked Addison's combine, but maybe he was nursing an injury and should somewhat ignore it.
 
www.sharpfootballanalysis.com

2023 Pre-Draft Fantasy Rookie Rankings: Quarterback | Sharp Football

Rich Hribar's 2023 pre-NFL Draft fantasy football quarterback rankings including Bryce Young, Anthony Richardson, C.J. Stroud, Will Levis, and more
www.sharpfootballanalysis.com www.sharpfootballanalysis.com

Good breakdown of some QBs. Great line for Stroud fans:

Comparing Stroud to all quarterback prospects to be invited to the combine since 2000 puts him among elite company.

  • 9.8 career yards per pass attempt (98th percentile)
  • 7.1:1 TD:INT ratio (97th percentile)
  • 69.3% completion rate (96th percentile)
Click to expand...
Impressive. I was listening to a podcast, Dynasty Nerds, and they were saying all of these QBs have warts, none are bulletproof. I was kind of nodding, and then I was like, hang on here, what are Stroud's negatives again? So I checked with Lance Zierlein. Number one weakness, is what anyone thinks of:
  • Hesitance to use his legs can put a cap on his success rate.
I said this somewhere else, but the fact that he's not Lamar or Fields running the ball, is that a negative? Neither is Bryce Young, but the story is, oh if he was Stroud size, he'd be best prospect since blah blah blah. Frankly, I think that's BS. The rest of Zierlein's negatives are really worth reading. All kind of technical stuff to do with passing, which didn't seem to stop him from having 97th percentile accuracy metrics. Then of course there is the Ohio State argument, which is the kind of dumb sheet you won't find in this thread. The lack of running puts a cap on his fantasy value, so his ceiling is not as high as Richardson's, but feels like Stroud ceiling still pretty high.

Stroud also led this class with a 9.1% touchdown rate under pressure, Kind of a great stat, considering none of these guys will likely get drafted by a team with Philly's O-line. Colts gave up 60 sacks last year, I think? Put a pin in that thought for Will Levis later.
 
massraider said:
Impressive. I was listening to a podcast, Dynasty Nerds, and they were saying all of these QBs have warts, none are bulletproof. I was kind of nodding, and then I was like, hang on here, what are Stroud's negatives again? So I checked with Lance Zierlein. Number one weakness, is what anyone thinks of:
  • Hesitance to use his legs can put a cap on his success rate.
Click to expand...
That is the usual knock on Stroud, yet we saw in the Georgia game that Stroud is not only capable and willing to rely upon his feet to extend plays or to tuck the ball end get positive yardage, but he looked very natural and elusive in that effort. Still, some criticism of Stroud's hesitancy to use his legs may be warranted. It is not a big knock against him, and his positive traits far outweigh this one factor. Moreover, I believe this is a coachable characteristic. Stroud does not need to be Lamar Jackson or Justin Fields to be successful. Stroud is a more refined passer than either of them entered the league as.
 
theathletic.com

Anthony Richardson vs. Will Levis: Which high-ceiling QB prospect is worth the risk?

In today's NFL, competent QB play is easy to find, but having elite talent at the position has never been more important.
theathletic.com theathletic.com

Ted Nguyen was known to Raiders Twitter for a while, and is now on Athletic staff, he's a name to remember. Great film breakdowns. GREAT follow on Twitter.

Comparing Levis and Richardson.

I'm early on with looking at these two, and I will deff dig more, because more likely one of these two ends up on Raiders than the others. But two things I think regarding these guys:

  • Richardson with his legs only needs to get to an average league QB passing skill to be a monster. See: Jackson, Lamar. That's a big margin for error these other guys don't have.
  • Levis had a great '21, bad '22. I didn't realize how bad until I looked. Three different injuries, freshman WRs, terrible O-line. Everyone lines up to say how they make don't excuses for anyone, but at some point, things become reasons. To ignore the injuries and such is just really bad, IMO
 
massraider said:
what are Stroud's negatives again? So I checked with Lance Zierlein. Number one weakness
Click to expand...
The number two weakness I hear a lot on him is that he can't create when the play breaks down, that he does not do well out of structure. Which is why a few people have compared him to Goff.

What I don't know on Stroud, and maybe you do, is this knock on him because he rarely ever had to do that at Ohio St or that when he's had to do it its' not gone well?
 
menobrown said:
The number two weakness I hear a lot on him is that he can't create when the play breaks down, that he does not do well out of structure. Which is why a few people have compared him to Goff.
Click to expand...
From that link I posted earlier:

Stroud also led this class with a 9.1% touchdown rate under pressure.
Click to expand...
I get that for the most part he played within the OSU system, which is a lot of playaction behind a stud line, but if that's his TD rate under pressure, and he's tops in the group, how much of a negative can it be? I think there's a bit of bias in some evaluations here, like people think he should be more wild and woolly running around, people disappointed he's not Jalen Hurts. Stroud should be getting the Mac Jones treatment, where everyone genuflects over his accuracy, and feel in the pocket, and ability to go through progressions.
 
www.youtube.com

2023 NFL Draft QB Rankings and Sleeper Picks | PFF NFL Show

PFF's Sam Monson, and Steve Palazzolo give their NFL Draft QB Rankings and Sleeper Picks!0:00 - Intro9:55 - 2023 NFL Draft QB Rankings47:00 - Anthony Richard...
www.youtube.com www.youtube.com

PFF has a podcast where they are ranking the QBs. haven't listened to it fully yet, but Palozzolo makes an offhand comment in the beginning that is MASSIVE to me right now. He mentions/admits that of their models right now, the QB one is pretty much broken, as the model has NOT liked the guys that are now the best QBs in the league. Mahomes, Herbert, Dak, Lamar.

If all the things that we relied on to evaluate QBs is no longer correctly predicting the best guys, we need new data points, we need a new model. Looking at recent history, the accuracy strikes against Lamar and Josh Allen might have been overblown. Or maybe it's just the game changing to where passing is different, coaches are scheming different, whatever. Example of what I mean?

Anyone remember the biggest negative about Cam Newton? One season as a starter, and if you were a draft geek then, you remember there was some game minimum threshold, that Parcells used, and that QBs who started less than x number of games, were duds in the NFL. It was a pretty overwhelming stat, favoring your 3 year starters. You heard this stat brought up with EVERY one year starter, until one day, you didn't. That didn't matter any more, who knows why?

Lamar thread has arguments that no QB who ever threw less that this or that percentage in college was ever successful. Guy was MVP in 2nd year.

it is worth noting that we might be in a shift, where the analytics we trust at QB might be changing, so I am keeping an open mind, especially about Levis and Richardson.

We may also be headed in that direction regarding size of WRs, it occurs to me.
 
theathletic.com

Introducing the S2 Cognition test that helps predict NFL quarterback success

The top NFL quarterbacks tend to score high on the S2 Cognition test that 800 draft prospects take each year. Purdy aced his exam last year.
theathletic.com theathletic.com

Very cool on the test that should replace the Wonderlic.



The S2 isn’t an intelligence test like the 50-question Wonderlic exam but rather measures how quickly and accurately athletes process information. It’s like the 40-yard dash for the brain.

”The game will never be too fast for Brock, I’ll say that,” said Brandon Ally, a neuroscientist and cofounder of Nashville-based S2 Cognition. “I don’t think he’ll ever have trouble adjusting.”

Ally and his partner, Scott Wylie, have tested more than 40,000 athletes, from big-league batsmen to pro golfers, and the company has contracts with 14 NFL teams. The group already has been testing players at college all-star games during the current draft cycle and will do more testing at next week’s combine in Indianapolis. By the time the draft begins in April, S2 will have scores for more than 800 prospects.

“The GMs have become so interested in the data that we start testing as soon as these kids declare,” Ally said.

The exam lasts 40 to 45 minutes. It’s performed on a specially designed gaming laptop and response pad that can record reactions in two milliseconds. To put that in perspective, an eye blink lasts 100 to 150 milliseconds.

In one section of the exam, a series of diamonds flash on the screen for 16 milliseconds each. Every diamond is missing a point, and the test taker must determine — using left, right, up or down keys — which part is missing.

In another, the test seeks to find out how many objects an athlete can keep track of at the same time. In another, there are 22 figures on the screen and the athlete must locate a specific one as quickly as possible. The object might be a red triangle embedded in other shapes that are also red.

“We’re talking about things they have to perceive on the screen within 16/1,000th of a second, which is essentially subliminal and which scientific literature says you shouldn’t be able to process,” Ally said. “And I’ll be honest with you, we’re seeing pro baseball players see something way faster than 16 milliseconds, which has never been reported in literature, all the way to some athletes who may take 150 milliseconds. So our eyes may see the same thing. But for some, it takes longer to process than others.”
 
More on GIbbs:

The biggest issue Gibbs faces is size. NFL teams have historically fed biggerbodied backs. In fact, among all runners in the Z-Prospect Model’s database, none have scored 15 or more PPR points per game during their first three years in the league while having a weight below 200 pounds. Moreover, take a look at sub-210-pound — Gibbs is 199 pounds, remember — running backs who were drafted in the top-50 since 2011: Christian McCaffrey, Ronald Jones, Giovani Bernard, David Wilson, Isaiah Pead, Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
Click to expand...

sad face.
 
Devon Achane:

Since 2011, 19 RBs have weighed less than 190 at the combine.
None have had 100+ carries in a season.
 
Power 5 WRs with > 3.00 yards/route run (2021)
1. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (4.01)
2. Treylon Burks (3.57)
3. Wan'Dale Robinson (3.56)
4. Drake London (3.52)
5. Dontayvion Wicks (3.25)
6. Jameson Williams (3.12)
7. Garrett Wilson (3.00)
 
2022 Regular Season Pressures from top Edge prospects:

59- Will Anderson Jr
50- Tyree Wilson
49- Tuli Tuipulotu
46- BJ Ojulari
43- Lukas Van Ness
41- Keion White
40- Felix Anudike-Uzomah
36- Byron Young (Tenn)
 
Since 2016, Power 5 players with at least 10 sacks, 20 TFL, and 3 passes defended in a season:

Harold Landry
Josh Allen
Chase Young
Alex Highsmith
Will Anderson
Tuli Tuipulotu
 
Andrei Iosivas is a WR prospect in the 2023 draft class. He scored a 9.95 RAS out of a possible 10.00. This ranked 16 out of 2875 WR from 1987 to 2023


Who the heck is this
 
massraider said:
Andrei Iosivas is a WR prospect in the 2023 draft class. He scored a 9.95 RAS out of a possible 10.00. This ranked 16 out of 2875 WR from 1987 to 2023


Who the heck is this
Click to expand...

Guy from Princeton. 6'3", 205.

He's been on the radar of teams. They had him in like the fifth or sixth round, but he might have moved up.
 
Awesome note from @KEnglishDS here re: Darnell Washington's lack of college production ...

"Four of the top-12 fantasy finishers from 2022 — George Kittle, Dawson Knox, Juwan Johnson and Dalton Schultz — failed to reach 28 catches in any college season."
 
Seeing the above stat on Stroud under pressure is really interesting as that is the common knock on him. Found this from PFF to back up the perception:

www.pff.com

2023 NFL Draft Profile: C.J. Stroud, Ohio State | NFL Draft | PFF

Breaking down Ohio State QB C.J. Stroud's skill set and projecting his value in the 2023 NFL Draft.
www.pff.com www.pff.com
What he needs to improve: We just talked about how good Stroud is when kept clean in the pocket (71.7% completion rate, 35 touchdowns, 93.4 PFF grade). Well, he is basically the polar opposite under pressure (41.3% completion rate, six touchdowns, 42.0 PFF grade).
Click to expand...
 
massraider said:
Since 2016, Power 5 players with at least 10 sacks, 20 TFL, and 3 passes defended in a season: Harold Landry, Josh Allen, Chase Young, Alex Highsmith,Will Anderson ----- Tuli Tuipulotu
Click to expand...
FIRST ROUND MOCK
@firstroundmock
Never seen anything like this - Tuli Tuipulotu leads the nation with 13.5 sacks but he’s not in the mainstream 1st round NFL Draft conversation?
Tuli Tuipulotu is a First-Round Pass Rusher in 2023 NFL Draft

2023 NFL Draft Scouting Report​

Accomplished, coiled, and opportunistic defender with long arms, quickness, and range. Smells weakness and exploits it. Lines up with his hand down in the dirt or standing up. Fast first step and uses hands well to get into blockers in passing situations. Authoritative bull rush. Speciality moves are the rip, swim, head fake, and shake-and-bake. Can get under tackles’ pad level and has the speed and bend to win the edge. Makes quick pocket adjustments, showed darting short-area burst, and delivers crushing blows....
-----------------
Go to the link for the full read.
 
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