doowain
Footballguy
We all know the "3rd year breakout" for WRs. Most of us also know that is a myth. For every 3rd year breakout, there are 25 WRs who don't progress at all. I, for one, thought that least year Bowe would be one of those WRs that proved the myth correct. I wasn't alone as most drafts had him drafted as a Top 10 WR.
He was coming off a promising second year (86/1022/7), in which he improved in every category over his very impressive rookie campaign of 70/995/5. There was a new regime in town that came from a pass happy attack in Arizona. We all hoped that would translate to even bigger things for him. Unfortunately, he was mired in Haley's doghouse all offseason, even demoted as low as 3rd string. He then worked his way back up to a starter before the season started. The season was a disaster. Bowe was suspended for PEDs (diuretics I believe) and saw action in only 11 games. Even when he was in there, Cassel was atrocious. He was sacked 42 times and posted a 69.9 passer rating. The Chiefs had a plodding running attack (pre Jamaal Charles) before Bowe was suspended and that allowed defenses to key in on stopping him. There was no other option in the passing game.
I think that fact is too often overlooked. While Cassel was bad, I think this was the larger problem. Bowe's first two years he had just as bad, if not worse, QBs chucking him the ball. So, what changed? Tony Gonzalez left. That's what changed. Bowe now had the focus of the defense and it showed.
So, why the optimism this year and beyond? A few reasons...
1. Bowe is a target MONSTER. He played in 11 games last year and saw 87 targets. That projects out to 127 targets, which is low for him. In 2008, he had 157 targets. I expect something in the middle, considering the balls that will need to go around to other options in the offense. For comparison purposes, Vincent Jackson (who, regardless of sitting out, most have as a Top 10 WR) has seen 107 and 101 targets the last two years. With Cassel, you may not always get quality, but you can't discount the quantity.
2. I alluded to this in the previous point. There are other options in the offense this year to take pressure/coverage off of him. Chris Chambers, Dexter McCluster, Jamaal Charles, and even Tony Moeaki will all help to alleviate the double/triple coverage that Bowe would often see. While there will be less balls to go around with more options, I expect the quality of those available targets to go up.
3. You can't discount the work Bowe has put in this offseason. While he's often been labeled as lazy (showing up to camp overweight, etc.), even Haley has sung Bowe's praises. He attended Larry Fitzgerald's WR camp and reported to camp in top shape. Bowe has been knocked for his low catch %. Whether that's bad hands or concentration issues, I can only hope that Fitzgerald's camp helped him in that area.
4. Charlie Weis. While he wasn't cut out for a head coaching gig in South Bend, he brings an incredible offensive mind to a team desperate for it. I don't see how this could possibly be a negative for the Chiefs best WR.
I'm clearly higher on Bowe than most. Being an SEC (Gator) fan, I saw plenty of him in college and loved him there. He's big, strong, and has loads of upside. The problem thus far in his career has been the mental aspects IMO. It may just be coach speak and me reading too much into his offseason work ethic....but I truly feel that he has gotten over that hurdle.
Last year was a lost year and I believe this is the season that Dwayne Bowe becomes a WR1.
I project:
140 targets
88 catches
1200 yards
13.6 ypc
8 TDs
That would be 256 points. Good for WR11 last year. Those of you in multiple leagues with me may write this off as me being hopeful considering I own him nearly everywhere. While that may hold some truth, I actually actively shopped for him this offseason with this mindset. I purchased/held him because I felt he'd break out this year. Not the other way around
Who is with me?
He was coming off a promising second year (86/1022/7), in which he improved in every category over his very impressive rookie campaign of 70/995/5. There was a new regime in town that came from a pass happy attack in Arizona. We all hoped that would translate to even bigger things for him. Unfortunately, he was mired in Haley's doghouse all offseason, even demoted as low as 3rd string. He then worked his way back up to a starter before the season started. The season was a disaster. Bowe was suspended for PEDs (diuretics I believe) and saw action in only 11 games. Even when he was in there, Cassel was atrocious. He was sacked 42 times and posted a 69.9 passer rating. The Chiefs had a plodding running attack (pre Jamaal Charles) before Bowe was suspended and that allowed defenses to key in on stopping him. There was no other option in the passing game.
I think that fact is too often overlooked. While Cassel was bad, I think this was the larger problem. Bowe's first two years he had just as bad, if not worse, QBs chucking him the ball. So, what changed? Tony Gonzalez left. That's what changed. Bowe now had the focus of the defense and it showed.
So, why the optimism this year and beyond? A few reasons...
1. Bowe is a target MONSTER. He played in 11 games last year and saw 87 targets. That projects out to 127 targets, which is low for him. In 2008, he had 157 targets. I expect something in the middle, considering the balls that will need to go around to other options in the offense. For comparison purposes, Vincent Jackson (who, regardless of sitting out, most have as a Top 10 WR) has seen 107 and 101 targets the last two years. With Cassel, you may not always get quality, but you can't discount the quantity.
2. I alluded to this in the previous point. There are other options in the offense this year to take pressure/coverage off of him. Chris Chambers, Dexter McCluster, Jamaal Charles, and even Tony Moeaki will all help to alleviate the double/triple coverage that Bowe would often see. While there will be less balls to go around with more options, I expect the quality of those available targets to go up.
3. You can't discount the work Bowe has put in this offseason. While he's often been labeled as lazy (showing up to camp overweight, etc.), even Haley has sung Bowe's praises. He attended Larry Fitzgerald's WR camp and reported to camp in top shape. Bowe has been knocked for his low catch %. Whether that's bad hands or concentration issues, I can only hope that Fitzgerald's camp helped him in that area.
4. Charlie Weis. While he wasn't cut out for a head coaching gig in South Bend, he brings an incredible offensive mind to a team desperate for it. I don't see how this could possibly be a negative for the Chiefs best WR.
I'm clearly higher on Bowe than most. Being an SEC (Gator) fan, I saw plenty of him in college and loved him there. He's big, strong, and has loads of upside. The problem thus far in his career has been the mental aspects IMO. It may just be coach speak and me reading too much into his offseason work ethic....but I truly feel that he has gotten over that hurdle.
Last year was a lost year and I believe this is the season that Dwayne Bowe becomes a WR1.
I project:
140 targets
88 catches
1200 yards
13.6 ypc
8 TDs
That would be 256 points. Good for WR11 last year. Those of you in multiple leagues with me may write this off as me being hopeful considering I own him nearly everywhere. While that may hold some truth, I actually actively shopped for him this offseason with this mindset. I purchased/held him because I felt he'd break out this year. Not the other way around

Who is with me?
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