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Dynasty: Felix Jones vs. Donald Brown (1 Viewer)

flat_earth

Footballguy
Felix Jones vs. Donald Brown

I’d be interested to see some discussion in Shark Pool comparing these two RB prospects from a dynasty perspective. On paper, they seem very similar:

Felix Jones, DAL

5’10” – 207lbs – 22 years old – 1 year of NFL experience (NOTE: the Cowboys website lists him at 6’0” 218lbs, but his combine measurements seem much more accurate)

Picked #22 Overall in 2008

Donald Brown, IND

5’10” – 210lbs – 22 years old – Rookie

Picked #27 Overall in 2009

Both have shown flashes of top-flight talent but are stuck behind productive 26 year old veteran starters (Barber/Addai) on good teams. Both have battled injury problems in their young careers, but generally have looked very good when they are on the field. Jones is viewed as a bit more of a ‘big play’ guy while Brown seems to be more of a between the tackles runner. Both have proven themselves to be decent receivers, but are questionable is pass protection.

My question is this: how do you view these two going forward? My perception from the three dynasty leagues I play in is that Donald Brown is valued much more highly than Felix Jones. Is this valid from a talent perspective, or is it just a case of Brown being a rookie while Felix has had a year to lose his luster?

When I’ve had a chance to watch Felix Jones play, I’ve gotten the impression that his straight line speed isn’t as crazy good as everyone seems to think. He has been chased down multiple times from behind on long runs/passes. However, his quickness and cutting ability seem to be top-notch, and his penchant for big plays cannot be denied. He explodes through the hole and gets to the 2nd level very quickly and fluidly. I haven’t seen him catch anything other than screen/swing passes, but he seems very good at those. He is patient and uses his blockers well in space. On the negative side, Dallas is loaded with RB talent and there seems to be fewer snaps to go around. Also, after two season’s worth of nagging injuries I half expect him to come up limping after every play.

Donald Brown has looked faster and more explosive than I expected him to look, as I’ve heard him called a plodder/grinder around this forum frequently. From what I’ve seen, he runs with good power between the tackles, and has very good speed in space. He doesn’t look particularly shifty or quick to me, but he has excelled at the short passing game much like Felix Jones has. It does not appear that Brown has yet entered Peyton Manning’s ‘Circle of Trust’ on the field for whatever reason, and that seems to be a big factor in why his snaps have been limited. On the other hand, the path to being an unquestioned starter down the road seems easier for Brown than Jones. He has Addai clearly in front of him, but Addai is injury prone himself and is likely due for a new contract soon (anyone know his exact status)? There is no one behind Brown on the depth chart to challenge for snaps like Tashard Choice does in Dallas.

So, what say you? How different (or similar) are the long term prospects for Donald Brown and Felix Jones?

 
Felix Jones vs. Donald BrownI’d be interested to see some discussion in Shark Pool comparing these two RB prospects from a dynasty perspective. On paper, they seem very similar:Felix Jones, DAL5’10” – 207lbs – 22 years old – 1 year of NFL experience (NOTE: the Cowboys website lists him at 6’0” 218lbs, but his combine measurements seem much more accurate)Picked #22 Overall in 2008Donald Brown, IND5’10” – 210lbs – 22 years old – RookiePicked #27 Overall in 2009
I'm not sure what Brown's measurements are now, probably pretty close to combine measurements, as he's only had one NFL offseason. Jones has had two, and sent a lot of time this offseason bulking up, I've heard everything from 212-220, so 218 is probably pretty accurate for his weight. His combine height was 5'10.5-6'0 depending on the reporting source, I believe he's about 5'11.
My question is this: how do you view these two going forward? My perception from the three dynasty leagues I play in is that Donald Brown is valued much more highly than Felix Jones. Is this valid from a talent perspective, or is it just a case of Brown being a rookie while Felix has had a year to lose his luster?
Of the two, IMO Felix is by far the more talented running back. However his injury issues have cost him some support by FFers. Also, there is a perception that Addai (also due to injuries) is no good, so Brown's path to greatness is easier. Will address those below.
When I’ve had a chance to watch Felix Jones play, I’ve gotten the impression that his straight line speed isn’t as crazy good as everyone seems to think. He has been chased down multiple times from behind on long runs/passes. However, his quickness and cutting ability seem to be top-notch, and his penchant for big plays cannot be denied. He explodes through the hole and gets to the 2nd level very quickly and fluidly. I haven’t seen him catch anything other than screen/swing passes, but he seems very good at those. He is patient and uses his blockers well in space. On the negative side, Dallas is loaded with RB talent and there seems to be fewer snaps to go around. Also, after two season’s worth of nagging injuries I half expect him to come up limping after every play.
Jones straight line speed is better than you think IMO. Rarely does he get caught from behind. As for the nagging injuries, he's been playing through the knee injury this season, and averaging 6.65 YPC on the season. I believe he's overcome the injury issues, but understand the reasons for concern. Additionally, Felix does have Barber and Choice on the same roster, which means his opportunities will be limited, in comparison to other RBs. If Barber ends up going elsewhere (as is rather unfoundedly rumored) then Felix will be the starter. Jerry Jones is already telling the coaches they need to use Jones more. And if Jones can get and stay healthy, he will be a dominant FF producer with more opportunities. However, even if Barber goes, Jones will see some carries go to Choice.
Donald Brown has looked faster and more explosive than I expected him to look, as I’ve heard him called a plodder/grinder around this forum frequently. From what I’ve seen, he runs with good power between the tackles, and has very good speed in space. He doesn’t look particularly shifty or quick to me, but he has excelled at the short passing game much like Felix Jones has. It does not appear that Brown has yet entered Peyton Manning’s ‘Circle of Trust’ on the field for whatever reason, and that seems to be a big factor in why his snaps have been limited. On the other hand, the path to being an unquestioned starter down the road seems easier for Brown than Jones. He has Addai clearly in front of him, but Addai is injury prone himself and is likely due for a new contract soon (anyone know his exact status)? There is no one behind Brown on the depth chart to challenge for snaps like Tashard Choice does in Dallas.
Brown hasn't really picked up the Indy system well at all. Add in his missing time with injuries, and IMO being behind a - at the very least maginally - better RB, he's a bit overrated in dynasty circles. Addai is signed through next season, and may get an extension this offseason, as he is a Polian favorite and won't demand too much money. Brown isn't a very good inside runner, and has shown himself a bit injury prone this season. He will see more action, but probably will be a complementary back to Addai for at least another season if Addai is not extended. Also, Simpson has outplayed Brown in a few games they've been in, and the Colts like him as well. Even if Addai goes, the Colts have said they plan on running a 2-RB system.My preference would be Jones, on a pure talent standpoint. When you weigh in OLs, then Jones has the advantage as well.If you look at overall offensive cast, the edge goes to Brown. And if you look at chances for greater opportunity, edge goes to Brown.Both will be in some sort of committee no matter what.In the long run, I believe Felix is the better option, because talent always wins out.
 
Thanks switz. I guess I'm just testing my own personal rankings and player values because I've had these two ranked very close all year long but the common perception seems to be that Brown is much more valuable. I'd be interested to hear some arguments to that effect.

 
Felix Jones, DAL5’10” – 207lbs
Believe it! Felix is close to 220, the 218 lb listing is legitimate. Aside from this, Felix Jones is far more talented than Donald Brown. If he can stay out of the trainer's room, he can vault into stardom.......rather quickly.
 

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