EBF said:
You said that "most" TEs take until their third year to start producing. I don't think that's a true statement with regards to the really special top end players. As I mentioned previously, Graham, Gates, Gronk, Hernandez, Heap, Shockey, Winslow, Cooley, Daniels, and Witten were all pretty quick out of the gate. The general pattern for most eventual elite TEs seems to be one year of learning followed by a breakout season. Dallas Clark is a good shout and there are a couple other players who started out slowly and eventually had some success, but in general the perennial Pro Bowl types seem to adapt and thrive pretty quickly. By the end of their second year, you usually have a good idea of who they're going to be at the pro level. And I'm not sure how helpful it is to dig up guys like Gonzo and Coates as counter examples since they entered the league in a different era. Even if you allow them for the sake of discussion, it's still fair to say that the majority of recent elite TEs were thriving by their second season.
I don't have a side in this, but I figured I'd present some data.Here's the top 10 TEs of all time (in career fantasy points) and how their 2nd season ranks in fantasy points:Tony Gonzalez (64th)Shannon Sharpe (outside of top 100)
Antonio Gates (5th)Jason Witten (9th)Ozzie Newsome (10th)Jackie Smith (31st)Kellen Winslow Sr. (4th)Jerry Smith (26th)Ben Coates (outside top 100)Wesley Walls (outside top 100)
Only two guys on that list who entered the league within the past decade. If you go back into the 70s, 80s, and even 90s things are probably different, but the pattern in recent times seems pretty clear: most eventual elite TEs make a major impact within their first two years. Gates, Graham, Witten, Gronk, Winslow, Shockey, Heap, Daniels, Cooley, and Hernandez all fit the mold. That's ten names right there. On the other side you have one legitimate star (Dallas Clark) and then a bunch of fringe types like Heath Miller, Jermaine Gresham, Dustin Keller, Greg Olsen, and Vernon Davis. To me all of this suggests that if a TE really has oustanding receiving ability, you're likely to see it almost immediately. That Rudolph is so far behind the likes of Shockey/Heap/Witten in yardage tells me he's probably closer to guys like Olsen/Gresham/Heath/Pitta in talent. Those aren't bad players to own, but they aren't guys who are going to consistently give you an edge either. They're the Roethlisberger/Eli/Cutler of FF TEs. With replacement level production being so easy to find in most start 1 TE leagues, I wouldn't give up a first rounder for this type of player.
As I said, I don't have a stake, I'm just providing data. I don't know if the fact that the recent decade conforms to this pattern is a function of a fundamental shift in the way things are, or a function of the fact that small sample sizes are small sample sizes. Plenty of the old school guys had 2nd year breakouts, too- Newsome, Parks, Ditka, Winslow, etc. Also, it occurs to me that you're playing fast and loose with categories. Cooley, who had the 17th best fantasy season by a 2nd year TE, was a "2nd year breakout". Rudolph, who had the 25th best season, was not. Gresham is listed as a "fringe type" despite being just a 3rd year player (a bit too early to relegate him to fringe status, IMO). Chris Cooley, Owen Daniels, and Kellen Winslow Jr. are listed as elite and Vernon Davis / Heath Miller are listed as fringe despite the fact that latter two already have more career fantasy points than the former three, and are now just running up the score. Vernon Davis's best season was better than Heap's, his second best season was better than Heap's, and his third best season was better than Heap's, too, yet Heap is elite and Davis is fringe. KWII and his one fantasy finish better than 6th are somehow elite, which is actually at least more justifiable than Owen Daniels, who has never finished higher than 6th. Heck, before last year, Daniels had never topped 100 points in non-PPR. Last year he got 108 points, which would be the 3rd best season of Miller's career or the 4th best season of Vernon's. Tony Gonzalez, who is still active, is completely cast out of the data, while Todd Heap (who arrived on the scene just 4 years later) is not. By not clearly defining your criteria, you've created categories which are capricious and arbitrary and not, in my opinion, accurate reflections of player value.If I were to make the categories, I'd list Gonzo, Witten, Gates, Gronk, and Graham as elite, Hernandez, Clark, Vernon, and Shockey as the next tier down, and Heap, Miller, Cooley, Winslow, and Daniels as quality assets. With a breakdown like that, you see a lot more later breakouts sprinkled in the mix. I suppose if you wanted, you could say that by not breaking out in your second year, you prove you're not the next Gonzo/Gates/Gronk/Graham/Witten... but I don't think anyone was suggesting Rudolph was. He could still be the next guy in the Clark/Vernon tier. So could Gresham, for that matter.