Dynasty Joe's Dynasty Rankings (1 Viewer)

[BigJim®]

Before Culpepper tore his knee up he lost Randy Moss, and he looked pretty bad (threw 6 TDs and 12 INTs in 7 games). I think if he'd stayed healthy it would have been apparent that he wasn't nearly as good as his numbers with Moss indicated. I'm not saying Cam is like that, though, just that I didn't think Culpepper was that good without Moss.

It's entirely off topic of the ranking (great ranking BTW) but I have to step in whenever I see this sort of misinformation. The season prior to Culpepper's devastating knee injury he played without Moss for nearly half the season (hamstring) yet Culpepper had 5100 total yards and 41 total TDs (that season Moss had career low 49 receptions for 767 receiving yards). Daunte was a shoe in for MVP had Manning not set the TD record. The next season when Culpepper struggled, it is true he no longer had Moss but more importantly OC Linehan left for St. Louis job and was not replaced... his important coaching role was backfilled by OL coach Steve Loney, promoted to joint OC/OL duties by a ridiculously frugal Red McCombs. Culpepper had already shown he could flourish without Moss in the prior season, anyone who thinks 2005 was anything but a totally inept OL coach running an NFL offense is out to lunch. Of course Culpepper was his own worst enemy after that acting as his own agent, and seemingly his own triple lig injury recovery trainer, so there was no coming back from injury for him and the rest is history. I don't see the analogy with Newton at all, unless of course he's forced to play for an inept OC. That would hurt any NFL QB.

 

[Shlon]

Thanks for the list. People will always gripe about something. One of the better all around lists I have seen.

Gripe/feedback... If everyone agreed on values, that would take a lot of fun out the offseason.The Matt Ryan ranking JUMPS off the page at me. You have at #6 overall and base it on half a season of work? But will rank guys like Shuab, Eli and Romo TIERS below him based on what? the fact that you don't their numbers will be repeated?Its always great to buck the trend and get the next star before he blows up, but I just don't see Ryan as a clear cut must start fantasty QB for the future.

Ryan's 2nd half this year over a full season would equate to 4988 yards passing, 40 passing TD's, 6 INT's (Keep in Mind that Ryan didn't play in 3 quarters against Bucs because the game was out of hand and sat out midway through the 3rd quarter against Jaguars because game was out of hand.)I think that's more of what's to come next season with a full season of a more experienced and healthy Julio, which would warrant him a must start every game.

 

[Dynasty Joe]

Wide Receiver Rankings

25. Greg Little, CLE

29. Antonio Brown, PIT

31. Darrius Heyward-Bey, OAK

37. Denarius Moore, OAK

Awesome List!As a Greg Little owner I was surprised to see you rank him so high, especially ahead of some of the other names quoted above. What do you see in him?

Aside from touchdowns, he had a pretty good rookie for a receiver: 61 catches, 709 receiving yards, and 2 TDs. He was viewed as a high risk/high reward player going into the draft and I don't really see any reason to move him from his preseason ranking. I'm pretty quick in moving a receiver into the top 35 WRs but fairly slow in giving up on a receiver (or RB or QB) with a good pedigree. That's why I have guys like Bradford and Moreno ranked as high as I do.

 

[Ilov80s]

One guy that seems underrated is Titus Young. You have him ranked as the 42nd WR. Young finished as the 44th WR in fantasy this season. Do you think he won't improve at all? IMO, in a year or two Burleson will be gone and Young will be the #2 alongside Calvin. With Stafford at the helm, I think he can put together quite a few 80 receptions 1000 yards 8 TD seasons. Titus scored 6 TDs in the final 8 games (should have had a 7th in the GB game). He might be the most technically sound rookie WR in the league. He uses his body really well, catches balls in traffic, pulls in jump balls, and has out muscled 1-1 coverage in the end zone. He isn't the DeSean Jackson that some thought he might be, but he is way ahead of where DeSean was in terms of how to play the WR position.

 

[Dynasty Joe]

Lance Kenricks - watching the game today, the kid does not look good. He's run some sloppy routes and has dropped at least one pass. The Rams announcers said he's had a big problem with drops this year. If they are correct, does this impact your rankings? And how close is Robert Housler to making your list?

I didn't put a ton of effort into the TEs beyond the top 15 or 20. In my opinion, it's a bit of crapshoot with a lot of decent prospects out there. I wouldn't really consider the guys I ranked to be much better fantasy prospects then him.

 

[Dynasty Joe]

8. Ryan Mathews, SD15. Demarco Murray, DAL

These guys seem too low. IMO the only guys clearly above Mathews right now are McCoy, Rice, and Foster. Murray should be top 10 for sure... I wouldn't knock him for durability based on one broken ankle.

Murray is near top 5 in my opinion.Matthews is where he belongs, I think Tolbert brings his value down.

Murray struggled with injuries in college, this year in the preseason, and then suffered a season ending injury. He appears to be a top 10 talent but I downgrade both of them because you can't really count on them. McFadden is ranked slightly higher to a better body of work.

 

[Dynasty Joe]

21. Tim Tebow, DEN

Tebow hasn't been a top 15 QB this season in PPG

Pretty sure this is wrong. He is #12. If it's 4 point passing TDs, he's #10.

I double checked this and in my league he finished as the #19 among QB in total fantasy points and #21 among QB in fantasy ppg.(or #19 in ppg if you take out Henne (who you probably should) and Skelton)

 

[HPD]

After a quick look, a couple things stand out to me.

Eli Manning passed for over 4900 yards this season, and will be throwing to Nicks and Cruz again in 2012. He's improved every season, finishing 12th in 2009, 8th in 2010 and 6th in 2011. You rank him at QB 13 (a huge downgrade from current play) because you need to see him repeat it.

Adrian Peterson at RB 5. ADP is probably going to miss 1/2 of the 2012 season at best and its pure speculation how well he recovers when he does take the field again.

 

[Dynasty Joe]

5. Mike Wallace, PIT29. Antonio Brown, PIT

Not the first plave I've seen this and I really don't understand why. Since Week 8 Brown outscored Wallace in every game except one. His targets are a bit higher as well on the year.I understand Wallace has a bigger body of work to fall back on but I think this gap should be a lot closer than 24.

This a a great question IMO. One of the things I found very difficult was where to rank secondary WRs, specifically: Victor Cruz, Jordy Nelson, and Antonio Brown.I feel like I could be underrating all three quite a bit. Jordy Nelson - looking at it statistics (which are very impressive), two questions come to mind: a.) How likely is it that Randall Cobb will be able to ever take the #2 WR job in Green Bay from him and b.) How close in talent and skill is Jordy Nelson to Greg Jennings? Could he actually be better? He should probably be ranked at least one tier higher upon further thought.Edit: It should be noted that 5 of his 15 TDs came when Jennings was out but 10+ touchdown season is still very impressive.Antonio Brown - Aside from elite play makers such as Terrell Owens, Randy Moss, or Calvin Johnson, I think TDs are largely a crapshoot. Brown only had two touchdowns this season. Considering the offense he plays in, I'd imagine he'll get quite a few more next year. I also didn't realize he was putting up more points each week then Mike Wallace the 2nd half of the season.Victor Cruz - Manning seems to go to him and not Hakeem Nicks in the clutch. Should Cruz actually be ranked higher then Nicks?

 

[Concept Coop]

Victor Cruz - Manning seems to go to him and not Hakeem Nicks in the clutch. Should Cruz actually be ranked higher then Nicks?

If not, then very close.He destroyed the Cowboys yesterday, dealing with double coverage all the while. He has quickly become Eli's go-to-guy, and he seems to be the more trusted out of the two. Granted, Nicks' injury could have something to do with that. Eli is at a point in his career where he can keep multiple options fed - both WRs should be valued highly.

 

[Dynasty Joe]

One guy that seems underrated is Titus Young. You have him ranked as the 42nd WR. Young finished as the 44th WR in fantasy this season. Do you think he won't improve at all? IMO, in a year or two Burleson will be gone and Young will be the #2 alongside Calvin. With Stafford at the helm, I think he can put together quite a few 80 receptions 1000 yards 8 TD seasons. Titus scored 6 TDs in the final 8 games (should have had a 7th in the GB game). He might be the most technically sound rookie WR in the league. He uses his body really well, catches balls in traffic, pulls in jump balls, and has out muscled 1-1 coverage in the end zone. He isn't the DeSean Jackson that some thought he might be, but he is way ahead of where DeSean was in terms of how to play the WR position.

The primarily reason I don't have Young ranked higher is because I don't think he has fantasy WR1 upside whereas I think guys like Baldwin, Collie, or Torrey Smith might (or at least have flashed more upside then Young). Of course, it could be my (mis)perception that he is very similar to DeSean Jackson who I've believed for awhile was overrated in fantasy.I'll have to look a little bit more into it and might end up moving him up a tier and into the late 30s.

 

[Dynasty Joe]

11. Sam Bradford, STL 12. Josh Freeman, TB 13. Eli Manning, NYG14. Ben Roethlisberger, PIT

Lol

I feel that Manning and Big Ben have largely shown what they're capable of doing in the NFL. Both are guys you can start at QB in fantasy but it's also going to give you a slight disadvantage at the position most weeks.Bradford was worthless in fantasy this year but I think it's way to early to give up on him. He had a very promising rookie season. I don't own him, but I view him as a buy low this off season, especially if the Rams draft Justin Blackmon.Freeman had a bad season, but I feel he will most likely become what Eli and Big Ben already are, a QB that's going to finish in the QB7 to QB15 most years in fantasy. He actually finished last season as QB9 - just two spots behind Eli and 10 spots AHEAD of Big Ben. With Freeman, I feel you'll likely get what you get with Eli and Big Ben except you guy a guy who is 6 to 7 years younger.I think I said this before, but all these guys should be ranked in the same tier after thinking about it a little more. I still wouldn't change the order though.

 

[thriftyrocker]

21. Tim Tebow, DEN

Tebow hasn't been a top 15 QB this season in PPG

Pretty sure this is wrong. He is #12. If it's 4 point passing TDs, he's #10.

I double checked this and in my league he finished as the #19 among QB in total fantasy points and #21 among QB in fantasy ppg.(or #19 in ppg if you take out Henne (who you probably should) and Skelton)

Ok, to be totally OCD, going by the scoring in the OPTebow

12 games with a pass attempt

1729 passing

673 rushing

18 total TDs

12 total TOs

2 2pt conversions

=

224.46

=

18.7 ppg

comparables: Rivers 19.3, Schaub 18.8, Sanchez 18.1

further down: Skelton 15.7, Freeman 15.8, Cutler 16.2, Palmer 16.2, Henne 17.0, Ben 17.2

I see NFL.com has GP as 14, so maybe that's how he gets that low in your calculation. It says he played vs. Cincy W2 and GB W4 and only recorded one touch in those 2 games. If that's the case, your PPG stat is pretty bogus. In all my leagues Tebow performed well (QB1), although certainly not elite. His short term value is real.

 

[FUBAR]

8. Michael Vick, PHI10. Peyton Manning, IND

Both of these guys seem high to me, and I wouldn't draft either of them anywhere close to these positions. Too much risk for both of them, and both of them are getting old. (Vick will only be 32 next year, but he will likely age faster than a typical QB given so much of his value is in running.)

I agree with this. I doubt I'd take Peyton over Ben, Eli, or a few others in a dynasty league.

 

[Dynasty Joe]

21. Tim Tebow, DEN

Tebow hasn't been a top 15 QB this season in PPG

Pretty sure this is wrong. He is #12. If it's 4 point passing TDs, he's #10.

I double checked this and in my league he finished as the #19 among QB in total fantasy points and #21 among QB in fantasy ppg.(or #19 in ppg if you take out Henne (who you probably should) and Skelton)

Ok, to be totally OCD, going by the scoring in the OPTebow

12 games with a pass attempt

1729 passing

673 rushing

18 total TDs

12 total TOs

2 2pt conversions

=

224.46

=

18.7 ppg

comparables: Rivers 19.3, Schaub 18.8, Sanchez 18.1

further down: Skelton 15.7, Freeman 15.8, Cutler 16.2, Palmer 16.2, Henne 17.0, Ben 17.2

I see NFL.com has GP as 14, so maybe that's how he gets that low in your calculation. It says he played vs. Cincy W2 and GB W4 and only recorded one touch in those 2 games. If that's the case, your PPG stat is pretty bogus. In all my leagues Tebow performed well (QB1), although certainly not elite. His short term value is real.

Yeah, that must be where the difference is. So your 18.7 ppg would be more accurate then. Even taking out Henne and Skelton, that still only jumps him to either 16th or 17th among QBs in ppg. That's not starter level in a 12 team dynasty league. When you account for the fact that he's probably going to have a hard time holding onto a starting QB, I feel the low ranking is justified. I'd much rather have Schaub or Sanchez who have a much better shot of holding down a starting QB job in the NFL and can at least be a solid backup fantasy QB for my fantasy team for a few years. If anything, he should be ranked lower. If he was in the top 10 in fantasy PPG among QBs, it'd be a different story.

 

[Dynasty Joe]

Made a few changes to the QB rankings. At some point, I'd like to update the WR rankings as well as I'm struggling with where to rank Cruz, Nelson, and Brown. Mike Williams is probably a bit overrated as well. He probably should be ranked towards the bottom of that tier.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Yeah, that must be where the difference is. So your 18.7 ppg would be more accurate then. Even taking out Henne and Skelton, that still only jumps him to either 16th or 17th among QBs in ppg. That's not starter level in a 12 team dynasty league.

It jumps him to #12 in 6 pt TD leagues. #10 in 4 pt pass TD leagues. This is starter level.

I'd much rather have Schaub or Sanchez who have a much better shot of holding down a starting QB job in the NFL and can at least be a solid backup fantasy QB for my fantasy team for a few years. If anything, he should be ranked lower.

No way Sanchez should be ahead of him. We saw Sanchez's ceiling (multiple rushing TDs, a lot of flukey stuff) and it was still worse PPG than what Tebow did this year. Sanchez has just the same question marks as Tebow. If the team has to come out and say you're still the starter, it means there's lots of questions as to whether you should still be the starter.

If he was in the top 10 in fantasy PPG among QBs, it'd be a different story.

He pretty much is = #12 in one format, #10 in another. And there is upside for him to do better as Fox made things very conservative. (Compare to his 3 games in 2010 under McDaniels and Studesville.) It would take a perfect storm for him to be elite PPG, but he is definitely startable in 12 team leagues as long as the NFL deems him startable.

 

[Dynasty Joe]

Nice list. Thanks for this.One question: where is Vincent Brown?

I don't watch that much college football so most of my rookie "scouting" comes from reading sportline.com's draft bios, nfl.com bio's, and whatever else I can find that seems insightful on the web. I find it very difficult to rank WRs outside the top 50 to 55. There are just so many relatively unknowns once you get in that range. I personally didn't see anything that jumped off the page in those draft bios or read anything online that's made be think he could even be a fantasy WR #2 someday but that doesn't mean he can't.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Nice list. Thanks for this.One question: where is Vincent Brown?

I don't watch that much college football so most of my rookie "scouting" comes from reading sportline.com's draft bios, nfl.com bio's, and whatever else I can find that seems insightful on the web. I find it very difficult to rank WRs outside the top 50 to 55. There are just so many relatively unknowns once you get in that range. I personally didn't see anything that jumped off the page in those draft bios or read anything online that's made be think he could even be a fantasy WR #2 someday but that doesn't mean he can't.

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2011/11bloom_100_postdraft.php

 

[Dynasty Joe]

Yeah, that must be where the difference is. So your 18.7 ppg would be more accurate then. Even taking out Henne and Skelton, that still only jumps him to either 16th or 17th among QBs in ppg. That's not starter level in a 12 team dynasty league.

It jumps him to #12 in 6 pt TD leagues. #10 in 4 pt pass TD leagues. This is starter level.

I'd much rather have Schaub or Sanchez who have a much better shot of holding down a starting QB job in the NFL and can at least be a solid backup fantasy QB for my fantasy team for a few years. If anything, he should be ranked lower.

No way Sanchez should be ahead of him. We saw Sanchez's ceiling (multiple rushing TDs, a lot of flukey stuff) and it was still worse PPG than what Tebow did this year. Sanchez has just the same question marks as Tebow. If the team has to come out and say you're still the starter, it means there's lots of questions as to whether you should still be the starter.

If he was in the top 10 in fantasy PPG among QBs, it'd be a different story.

He pretty much is = #12 in one format, #10 in another. And there is upside for him to do better as Fox made things very conservative. (Compare to his 3 games in 2010 under McDaniels and Studesville.) It would take a perfect storm for him to be elite PPG, but he is definitely startable in 12 team leagues as long as the NFL deems him startable.

Different formats will impact whether a player is startable or not, especially an unconventional player such as Tim Tebow or Vince Young in year's past. In this particular format, he is not and hence the low ranking.

 

[matttyl]

The first thing that sticks out to me is your high Michael Crabtree ranking. Having him a spot ahead of britt is off to me. Having him way ahead of Wayne, robinson, Thomas seems very off.

Honestly, I think he's spot on with Crabtree here, especially in a .5 PPR. If you take out weeks 1-2 when Crabtree wasn't even 80% and missed a game, and go off weeks 3+, I think he was like #7 or #8 in receptions by a WR. With Edwards gone, he'll only get more targets, and if Alex Smith would throw the ball over 20 yards, Crabtree could find himself being a solid #2 fantasy WR next year.

 

[thriftyrocker]

The first thing that sticks out to me is your high Michael Crabtree ranking. Having him a spot ahead of britt is off to me. Having him way ahead of Wayne, robinson, Thomas seems very off.

Honestly, I think he's spot on with Crabtree here, especially in a .5 PPR. If you take out weeks 1-2 when Crabtree wasn't even 80% and missed a game, and go off weeks 3+, I think he was like #7 or #8 in receptions by a WR. With Edwards gone, he'll only get more targets, and if Alex Smith would throw the ball over 20 yards, Crabtree could find himself being a solid #2 fantasy WR next year.

Definitely think Crabtree is coming into his own and only hampered by Smith. Britt I would rather have by a lot, and Jordy too, but I can definitely see giving up Colston, Robinson, or Wayne for him straight up.

 

[Dr. Awesome]

The first thing that sticks out to me is your high Michael Crabtree ranking. Having him a spot ahead of britt is off to me. Having him way ahead of Wayne, robinson, Thomas seems very off.

Honestly, I think he's spot on with Crabtree here, especially in a .5 PPR. If you take out weeks 1-2 when Crabtree wasn't even 80% and missed a game, and go off weeks 3+, I think he was like #7 or #8 in receptions by a WR. With Edwards gone, he'll only get more targets, and if Alex Smith would throw the ball over 20 yards, Crabtree could find himself being a solid #2 fantasy WR next year.

Braylon Edwards had 15 catches for SF this year. His absence literally means nothing. With Morgan coming back from injury and Kyle Williams looking like a solid slot receiver at least, I can buy an argument Crabtree's touches will go down. Asking Alex Smith to turn into a gunslinger is as silly as asking Tom Brady to scramble like Vick. He had a much better year than some people realize but he is what he is. A solid and efficient game manager that will limit mistakes but will rarely chuck the ball all over the field.

 

[Ariakis]

Wish there was more dynasty stuff around especially going into this time of year.

One thing that stands out to me is Gates below Witten who is two years younger but also seems to be slowing down. I can certainly see Finley over Gates (although if he changes teams all bets are off) but I can't imagine many owners would trade Gates for the soon to be 30 Witten.

 

[Concept Coop]

The first thing that sticks out to me is your high Michael Crabtree ranking. Having him a spot ahead of britt is off to me. Having him way ahead of Wayne, robinson, Thomas seems very off.

Honestly, I think he's spot on with Crabtree here, especially in a .5 PPR. If you take out weeks 1-2 when Crabtree wasn't even 80% and missed a game, and go off weeks 3+, I think he was like #7 or #8 in receptions by a WR. With Edwards gone, he'll only get more targets, and if Alex Smith would throw the ball over 20 yards, Crabtree could find himself being a solid #2 fantasy WR next year.

Definitely think Crabtree is coming into his own and only hampered by Smith. Britt I would rather have by a lot, and Jordy too, but I can definitely see giving up Colston, Robinson, or Wayne for him straight up.

But is Crabree secure in his spot as the #1 WR? I thought (Very wrong of me) that Mike Williams (SEA) was a good bet for WR2 numbers, until Seattle found better options.Crabtree is better than Williams, but I don't think he is a playmaker at an NFL level. SF will eventually find playmakers at the WR spot - what happens to Crabtree's value then?

 

[Concept Coop]

Wish there was more dynasty stuff around especially going into this time of year.One thing that stands out to me is Gates below Witten who is two years younger but also seems to be slowing down. I can certainly see Finley over Gates (although if he changes teams all bets are off) but I can't imagine many owners would trade Gates for the soon to be 30 Witten.

We definately need to look at this season and see what happened to Witten's numbers, but he is not slowing down physically. The numbers were great, early on. Once Murray came on to the scene, they slowed down.Witten is still one of the best TEs in the NFL, and I have him top 5 in dynasty leagues, above Gates.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Definitely think Crabtree is coming into his own and only hampered by Smith. Britt I would rather have by a lot, and Jordy too, but I can definitely see giving up Colston, Robinson, or Wayne for him straight up.

But is Crabree secure in his spot as the #1 WR? I thought (Very wrong of me) that Mike Williams (SEA) was a good bet for WR2 numbers, until Seattle found better options.Crabtree is better than Williams, but I don't think he is a playmaker at an NFL level. SF will eventually find playmakers at the WR spot - what happens to Crabtree's value then?

If he's not a #1 WR, he can be a Driver-style WR2. In 0.5 PPR leagues I'd be fine with converting a last gasp Wayne, risky Colston, or potential one year wonder Robinson for a guy like that. Maybe you need to define playmaker. He's not Brown, DeSean, or Cruz. He can be Boldin or Driver. He still has 90/1200/8 upside (if you want to cherry pick the last 7 games of the year he'd meet that pace).

 

[Concept Coop]

If he's not a #1 WR, he can be a Driver-style WR2. In 0.5 PPR leagues I'd be fine with converting a last gasp Wayne, risky Colston, or potential one year wonder Robinson for a guy like that. Maybe you need to define playmaker. He's not Brown, DeSean, or Cruz. He can be Boldin or Driver. He still has 90/1200/8 upside (if you want to cherry pick the last 7 games of the year he'd meet that pace).

I don't think Crabtree is a longterm answer as a #1 NFL WR. It is very rare for a #2 to post those numbers. I think the 49ers find guys that can do what he can, and more. At the very least, they find comparable talent (average, even) and he is no longer the clear #1 on that roster.I think taking him over Wayne and Robinson is fine. Colston, on the other hand, is on another tier, IMO. The upside is worth the health risk. He is playing at a top 10-15 pace right now, while healthy, as the #1B option. Back to Crabtree, I would much rather gamble on upside than take his safe WR2/3 numbers. That means taking guys like Moore, Brown, Decker and even (Yikes!) DHB over him.

 

[matttyl]

The first thing that sticks out to me is your high Michael Crabtree ranking. Having him a spot ahead of britt is off to me. Having him way ahead of Wayne, robinson, Thomas seems very off.

Honestly, I think he's spot on with Crabtree here, especially in a .5 PPR. If you take out weeks 1-2 when Crabtree wasn't even 80% and missed a game, and go off weeks 3+, I think he was like #7 or #8 in receptions by a WR. With Edwards gone, he'll only get more targets, and if Alex Smith would throw the ball over 20 yards, Crabtree could find himself being a solid #2 fantasy WR next year.

Braylon Edwards had 15 catches for SF this year. His absence literally means nothing. With Morgan coming back from injury and Kyle Williams looking like a solid slot receiver at least, I can buy an argument Crabtree's touches will go down. Asking Alex Smith to turn into a gunslinger is as silly as asking Tom Brady to scramble like Vick. He had a much better year than some people realize but he is what he is. A solid and efficient game manager that will limit mistakes but will rarely chuck the ball all over the field.

Edwards had 15 catches on 34 targets, so even while missing half the season, he was the 2nd most targeted WR in San Fran. Smith was 20th in the league in pass attempts, which makes him dead last for QBs who played in 16 games. I mean even Rex Grossman has more pass attempts than Smith, and he was benched for a third of the season. If Smith has 500+ attempts next year, I can see Crabtree having 85 receptions, which crazy as it sounds, would have been 5th in the NFL this year for WRs.

 

[thriftyrocker]

I don't think Crabtree is a longterm answer as a #1 NFL WR. It is very rare for a #2 to post those numbers. I think the 49ers find guys that can do what he can, and more. At the very least, they find comparable talent (average, even) and he is no longer the clear #1 on that roster.

I really think the BMW worry is misplaced. Even last year the Seahawks went away from BMW for the likes of Butler and Obomanu and his stats were buoyed by some monster games. Crabtree has been consistent late, and a mini emergence of Kyle Williams and good games from Davis have done little to affect that. I think it's more likely SF49 finds a complimentary piece, like a homecoming for a certain Eagle or drafting a guy like Broyles, in which case I have little concern for Crabtree's value.

I think taking him over Wayne and Robinson is fine. Colston, on the other hand, is on another tier, IMO. The upside is worth the health risk. He is playing at a top 10-15 pace right now, while healthy, as the #1B option.

Yeah, I have no problem with that. I bail on guys like Colston 3 years early thinking I'm only 1 year early. But I would bail on him for Crabtree.

Back to Crabtree, I would much rather gamble on upside than take his safe WR2/3 numbers. That means taking guys like Moore, Brown, Decker and even (Yikes!) DHB over him.

You're way too high on Decker, but to each his own. Crabtree's upside is much higher, especially if we're talking PPR leagues. 90/1200/8 is Roddy White territory. If his upside is Roddy White, those other guys can't match that. Signed, multi league Moore owner.

 

[Dr. Awesome]

The first thing that sticks out to me is your high Michael Crabtree ranking. Having him a spot ahead of britt is off to me. Having him way ahead of Wayne, robinson, Thomas seems very off.

Honestly, I think he's spot on with Crabtree here, especially in a .5 PPR. If you take out weeks 1-2 when Crabtree wasn't even 80% and missed a game, and go off weeks 3+, I think he was like #7 or #8 in receptions by a WR. With Edwards gone, he'll only get more targets, and if Alex Smith would throw the ball over 20 yards, Crabtree could find himself being a solid #2 fantasy WR next year.

Braylon Edwards had 15 catches for SF this year. His absence literally means nothing. With Morgan coming back from injury and Kyle Williams looking like a solid slot receiver at least, I can buy an argument Crabtree's touches will go down. Asking Alex Smith to turn into a gunslinger is as silly as asking Tom Brady to scramble like Vick. He had a much better year than some people realize but he is what he is. A solid and efficient game manager that will limit mistakes but will rarely chuck the ball all over the field.

Edwards had 15 catches on 34 targets, so even while missing half the season, he was the 2nd most targeted WR in San Fran. Smith was 20th in the league in pass attempts, which makes him dead last for QBs who played in 16 games. I mean even Rex Grossman has more pass attempts than Smith, and he was benched for a third of the season. If Smith has 500+ attempts next year, I can see Crabtree having 85 receptions, which crazy as it sounds, would have been 5th in the NFL this year for WRs.

Morgan got hurt and Kyle Williams didn't get playing time until later in the season. It was a fluke that Braylon was the second most targeted wr with so targets. Obviously if Alex Smith throws it more the wr's will get more targets. I was taking issue with you saying if Alex starts throwing the ball 20 yards down the field. And Braylon's absence really does mean absolutely zilch to the other wr's value.

 

[Concept Coop]

I don't think Crabtree is a longterm answer as a #1 NFL WR. It is very rare for a #2 to post those numbers. I think the 49ers find guys that can do what he can, and more. At the very least, they find comparable talent (average, even) and he is no longer the clear #1 on that roster.

I really think the BMW worry is misplaced. Even last year the Seahawks went away from BMW for the likes of Butler and Obomanu and his stats were buoyed by some monster games. Crabtree has been consistent late, and a mini emergence of Kyle Williams and good games from Davis have done little to affect that. I think it's more likely SF49 finds a complimentary piece, like a homecoming for a certain Eagle or drafting a guy like Broyles, in which case I have little concern for Crabtree's value.

I think taking him over Wayne and Robinson is fine. Colston, on the other hand, is on another tier, IMO. The upside is worth the health risk. He is playing at a top 10-15 pace right now, while healthy, as the #1B option.

Yeah, I have no problem with that. I bail on guys like Colston 3 years early thinking I'm only 1 year early. But I would bail on him for Crabtree.

Back to Crabtree, I would much rather gamble on upside than take his safe WR2/3 numbers. That means taking guys like Moore, Brown, Decker and even (Yikes!) DHB over him.

You're way too high on Decker, but to each his own. Crabtree's upside is much higher, especially if we're talking PPR leagues. 90/1200/8 is Roddy White territory. If his upside is Roddy White, those other guys can't match that. Signed, multi league Moore owner.

Michael Crabtree does not have Roddy White upside. Never has come close, nor will he, to those numbers. If you want to take an 8 game sample and pro-rate it, Decker was on pace for 16 TDs pre-Tebow, 12 half way through the season, and Tebow missed Decker on 2 easy TDs, 2 in which he had a chance. Unlike Crabtree, Decker was beating corners deep. Perhaps I overvalue that ability, but Decker is a playmaker. Crabtree is not. I'll gladly take a "chance" on a guy like Decker when the alternative is an average NFL WR playing WR1 due to lack of competition. If we are taking an 8 game stretch and pro-rating it, How can anyone value Crabree over L.Robinson? Both are average NFL WRs. Both had great stretches, while Robinson's was much better.

 

[Ariakis]

Wish there was more dynasty stuff around especially going into this time of year.One thing that stands out to me is Gates below Witten who is two years younger but also seems to be slowing down. I can certainly see Finley over Gates (although if he changes teams all bets are off) but I can't imagine many owners would trade Gates for the soon to be 30 Witten.

We definately need to look at this season and see what happened to Witten's numbers, but he is not slowing down physically. The numbers were great, early on. Once Murray came on to the scene, they slowed down.Witten is still one of the best TEs in the NFL, and I have him top 5 in dynasty leagues, above Gates.

He may not be slowing down STAT wise (yet) but on the field he looks SLOW. I'd put him at around the same career arch as Gates in that they are both in perhaps some early stage of athletic decline. With that being the case I'd rather have Gates who is more of a red zone target.What about you? Next year I'd rather have Gates. Two years out I'm not sure I'd want either as my elite TE1 which is why Finley and perhaps some other younger guys like Hernandez, VDavis, etc could be worth more depending where your dynasty window is to win now vs. rebuild. They may never be elite but atleast in 3 years they should still be a TE1. That's kind of the flaw in dynasty rankings.

 

[Concept Coop]

Wish there was more dynasty stuff around especially going into this time of year.One thing that stands out to me is Gates below Witten who is two years younger but also seems to be slowing down. I can certainly see Finley over Gates (although if he changes teams all bets are off) but I can't imagine many owners would trade Gates for the soon to be 30 Witten.

We definately need to look at this season and see what happened to Witten's numbers, but he is not slowing down physically. The numbers were great, early on. Once Murray came on to the scene, they slowed down.Witten is still one of the best TEs in the NFL, and I have him top 5 in dynasty leagues, above Gates.

He may not be slowing down STAT wise (yet) but on the field he looks SLOW. I'd put him at around the same career arch as Gates in that they are both in perhaps some early stage of athletic decline. With that being the case I'd rather have Gates who is more of a red zone target.What about you? Next year I'd rather have Gates. Two years out I'm not sure I'd want either as my elite TE1 which is why Finley and perhaps some other younger guys like Hernandez, VDavis, etc could be worth more depending where your dynasty window is to win now vs. rebuild. They may never be elite but atleast in 3 years they should still be a TE1. That's kind of the flaw in dynasty rankings.

I don't think Witten looks any slower than he has in the last couple years - when he finished as TE1 and TE2. He is a slow player that makes a living finding soft spots in coverage. He still does that. The Cowboys changed their offensive philosophy when Murray flashed the ability to carry the load. They were able to generate 4-8 yard plays on the ground, on first down, and were able to balance that with big plays through the air. Before, they needed Witten to get those yards. To be honest, it is going to take some pondering for me to rank Witten. I think he is the player he has always been, which made him the most productive PPR TE over the last 4-5 years; Romo still trusts him, his hands are still great, and he still gets open. But, I think the Cowboys - assuming Garrett even keeps his job - are going to have to run the ball more and balance that with big plays from Bryant and Austin.Right now, I would still take Witten. But, I openly admit that my stance on Witten needs to thinking through.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Unlike Crabtree, Decker was beating corners deep. Perhaps I overvalue that ability, but Decker is a playmaker. Crabtree is not.

Crabtree has beat corners deep. With Troy and Alex Smith at QB. Probably every CB on STL the past 2 years has been beat deep by Crabtree at least once. We would disagree on whether Decker or Crabtree is a better talent.

If we are taking an 8 game stretch and pro-rating it, How can anyone value Crabree over L.Robinson? Both are average NFL WRs. Both had great stretches, while Robinson's was much better.

Crabtree is a better talent with less risk. 2011 stats are meaningless for 2012.

 

[Andrew74]

The one ranking that caught me off guard was Spiller at #10. I know he did well once Jackson was hurt, but will he remain a good option next year? I didn't see too many Buff games this year, so I never got to see him play. Somewhat self-serving question as I am in trade talks and the guy is willing to part with Spiller; wondering how big a downgrade it would be from Steven Jackson.

 

[Tau837]

8. Ryan Mathews, SD

15. Demarco Murray, DAL

These guys seem too low. IMO the only guys clearly above Mathews right now are McCoy, Rice, and Foster. Murray should be top 10 for sure... I wouldn't knock him for durability based on one broken ankle.

Murray is near top 5 in my opinion.Matthews is where he belongs, I think Tolbert brings his value down.

Murray struggled with injuries in college, this year in the preseason, and then suffered a season ending injury. He appears to be a top 10 talent but I downgrade both of them because you can't really count on them. McFadden is ranked slightly higher to a better body of work.

Let me make sure I understand you. You can't count on Mathews, but you can count on McFadden?

 

[Ilov80s]

Wide Receiver Rankings

25. Greg Little, CLE

29. Antonio Brown, PIT

31. Darrius Heyward-Bey, OAK

37. Denarius Moore, OAK

Awesome List!As a Greg Little owner I was surprised to see you rank him so high, especially ahead of some of the other names quoted above. What do you see in him?

Aside from touchdowns, he had a pretty good rookie for a receiver: 61 catches, 709 receiving yards, and 2 TDs. He was viewed as a high risk/high reward player going into the draft and I don't really see any reason to move him from his preseason ranking. I'm pretty quick in moving a receiver into the top 35 WRs but fairly slow in giving up on a receiver (or RB or QB) with a good pedigree. That's why I have guys like Bradford and Moreno ranked as high as I do.

He also had 120 targets. Those numbers are very disappointing for 120 targets. He had the worst production per target of the 6 rookie WRs that had an impact in 2011.

 

[moderated]

Wide Receiver Rankings

25. Greg Little, CLE

29. Antonio Brown, PIT

31. Darrius Heyward-Bey, OAK

37. Denarius Moore, OAK

Awesome List!As a Greg Little owner I was surprised to see you rank him so high, especially ahead of some of the other names quoted above. What do you see in him?

Aside from touchdowns, he had a pretty good rookie for a receiver: 61 catches, 709 receiving yards, and 2 TDs. He was viewed as a high risk/high reward player going into the draft and I don't really see any reason to move him from his preseason ranking. I'm pretty quick in moving a receiver into the top 35 WRs but fairly slow in giving up on a receiver (or RB or QB) with a good pedigree. That's why I have guys like Bradford and Moreno ranked as high as I do.

He also had 120 targets. Those numbers are very disappointing for 120 targets. He had the worst production per target of the 6 rookie WRs that had an impact in 2011.

True, but Little only played wr for one year in college and was suspended the next. He came into the nfl with 1 yr experience playing wr and was thrust into a starting role.Actually extremely impressive when his background is taken into account. Playing on such a bad offense with no qb also didn't help him.

 

[cstu]

Nice insights! I think it is amazing how consistent the top 3-4 QBs have been over several seasons. No one could have seen Cam coming this fast but no one could argue his success. Does anyone worry about a Daunte Culpepper like drop? He seemed unstoppable at the time too...and he had Randy Moss in his prime to throw at.

Dante Culpepper tore 3 ligaments in his knee and was never the same player, or even close really. I don't think anyone would project that happing to Cam.

I predict he'll put up huge numbers while healthy but as a 6'6" running QB the risk of major injury is high.

 

[cstu]

9. Jamaal Charles, KC14. Rashard Mendenhall, PITMendenhall has never finished higher than 10th among RBs in total fantasy points

Charles' ranking is understandable but I can't see Mendenhall being this high after an ACL. It's not like he was a Charles-like stud who got injured.

 

[yankdog]

Sorry if someone else said this but what about Tim Hightower? My team was so bad I had to start him at the beginning of the year and so I am still bitter and want to see him near the bottom of this list! LOL.

 

[Ilov80s]

Wide Receiver Rankings

25. Greg Little, CLE

29. Antonio Brown, PIT

31. Darrius Heyward-Bey, OAK

37. Denarius Moore, OAK

Awesome List!As a Greg Little owner I was surprised to see you rank him so high, especially ahead of some of the other names quoted above. What do you see in him?

Aside from touchdowns, he had a pretty good rookie for a receiver: 61 catches, 709 receiving yards, and 2 TDs. He was viewed as a high risk/high reward player going into the draft and I don't really see any reason to move him from his preseason ranking. I'm pretty quick in moving a receiver into the top 35 WRs but fairly slow in giving up on a receiver (or RB or QB) with a good pedigree. That's why I have guys like Bradford and Moreno ranked as high as I do.

He also had 120 targets. Those numbers are very disappointing for 120 targets. He had the worst production per target of the 6 rookie WRs that had an impact in 2011.

True, but Little only played wr for one year in college and was suspended the next. He came into the nfl with 1 yr experience playing wr and was thrust into a starting role.Actually extremely impressive when his background is taken into account. Playing on such a bad offense with no qb also didn't help him.

Nothing you said makes like him more. I don't see that bad QB or bad offense changing anytime soon.

 

[cstu]

40. Mikel Leshoure, DET41. Ryan Williams, ARI

Both of these guys are ranked too low. Mikel Leshoure tore his achilles which is what Demaryius Thomas came back from earlier in the early. Curtis Martin also tore his achilles as a sophomore in college and had a HOF career. It's not a common injury and the studies that have been done include mostly older players who are near the end of the career anyway. Leshoure doesn't turn 22 until March so there is plenty to be optimistic about, especially that he doesn't have much competition in a high-powered offense.Like Leshoure, Ryan Williams is only going to turn 22 in April. Williams ruptured his patella tendon and people will argue that it's the same injury (twice) that ended Cadillac Williams' career. My argument is that Cadillac was never that good to begin with and that his YPC after the injuries was never lower (3.5) than his healthy 2nd season.In the case of both of these players I don't think injuries will be the limiting factor in their careers but rather their talent.

 

[bonesman]

what's even better than the list is your reasons for where guys are positioned.

Totally... great read from the OP and all the responders.

 

[Ilov80s]

40. Mikel Leshoure, DET41. Ryan Williams, ARI

Both of these guys are ranked too low. Mikel Leshoure tore his achilles which is what Demaryius Thomas came back from earlier in the early. Curtis Martin also tore his achilles as a sophomore in college and had a HOF career. It's not a common injury and the studies that have been done include mostly older players who are near the end of the career anyway. Leshoure doesn't turn 22 until March so there is plenty to be optimistic about, especially that he doesn't have much competition in a high-powered offense.Like Leshoure, Ryan Williams is only going to turn 22 in April. Williams ruptured his patella tendon and people will argue that it's the same injury (twice) that ended Cadillac Williams' career. My argument is that Cadillac was never that good to begin with and that his YPC after the injuries was never lower (3.5) than his healthy 2nd season.In the case of both of these players I don't think injuries will be the limiting factor in their careers but rather their talent.

I posted this in another thread, but it applies to the discussion of LeShoure here:With medical advances, I think Detroit has a lot of confidence that LeShoure is ready to go next year. Look at 3 recent Achilles tears amongst pro athletes: Piston Jonas Jerebko tore his on October 2010. He was ready for the NBA season and is averaging 34 minutes, 12 points and 8 boards which are career best numbers. Demaryius Thomas tore his after the 2010 season. He was ready by October and ended the year with 5 solid games: 25 catches, 448 yards, 3 TDs. In the EPL, Bolton's Sam Ricketts ruptured his achiles in February, 2011 and returned this past weekend. Young athletes are recovered, rehabbed, and returning in <12 months.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Back to Crabtree, I would much rather gamble on upside than take his safe WR2/3 numbers. That means taking guys like Moore, Brown, Decker and even (Yikes!) DHB over him.

Why doesn't Crabtree have the upside those guys have? While draft position doesn't mean everything the guy was a top 10 draft pick because he was/is a talent. He's a very fluid player with decent speed and good hands. I think the perception of him would be a whole lot different if the Niners had any type of QB play. Even in a "career year" for Alex Smith the guy barely broke 3,000 yards and had only 17 TDs.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Michael Crabtree does not have Roddy White upside. Never has come close, nor will he, to those numbers.

White's first three seasons - 142 - 2,154 - 9Crabtree's first three seasons - 176 - 2246 - 12White did break out in his thrid season though, while Crabtree only came on strong in the second half of his third season. I'm not sure Crabtree will be as consistently good as White has over the last several seasons, but it's premature to say he can't. I think they're very similiar physically and in how they play.

 

[tom22406]

Back to Crabtree, I would much rather gamble on upside than take his safe WR2/3 numbers. That means taking guys like Moore, Brown, Decker and even (Yikes!) DHB over him.

Why doesn't Crabtree have the upside those guys have? While draft position doesn't mean everything the guy was a top 10 draft pick because he was/is a talent. He's a very fluid player with decent speed and good hands. I think the perception of him would be a whole lot different if the Niners had any type of QB play. Even in a "career year" for Alex Smith the guy barely broke 3,000 yards and had only 17 TDs.

The problem is that the Niners are more than likely to sign Smith on for a few more years(3 was the latest I heard)so I tend to believe that unless the playcalling is different he seems like the safer play instead of the high upside guy.With that said Crabtree will still be a very good WR2 with how he is used.I also believe he early season injuries hampered his play as well so I can see a slight bump in his numbers next year given good health.

 

[thriftyrocker]

With medical advances, I think Detroit has a lot of confidence that LeShoure is ready to go next year. Look at 3 recent Achilles tears amongst pro athletes: Piston Jonas Jerebko tore his on October 2010. He was ready for the NBA season and is averaging 34 minutes, 12 points and 8 boards which are career best numbers. Demaryius Thomas tore his after the 2010 season. He was ready by October and ended the year with 5 solid games: 25 catches, 448 yards, 3 TDs. In the EPL, Bolton's Sam Ricketts ruptured his achiles in February, 2011 and returned this past weekend. Young athletes are recovered, rehabbed, and returning in <12 months.

That's interesting, but none of those are as demanding as NFL RB. And being able to come back and play is very different from being able to exceed at RB.Leshoure was not an ubertalent, just a good back with a great college season. If there's any loss in ability, he could become ordinary. Thomas had 2 things going for him 1) his talent level was pretty high to begin with and 2) some of his attributes cannot be messed with like height and catch radius. The floor of a post-Achilles Thomas was BMW. The floor of a post-Achilles Leshoure is John Clay or Anthony Dixon.Elton Brand is an interesting comparison because he was undersized for being a PF; he needed burst to be able to fight for rebounds and compete inside. Even though he came back quickly (missed less than a season) and was able to be serviceable, he was never the same guy. Leshoure will be back in uniform, no doubt, but will he be anything more than a plodder, Dixon/Clay fringe player?We'll know how confident Detroit is in Leshoure when they decide whether to resign Kevin Smith.