Concept Coop
Footballguy
If drafting one of the two QBs in a rookie draft today, who would you pick, Manziel or Bridgewater? If it matters, passing TD = 6pts.
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Dynasty: Johnny or Teddy? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Concept Coop
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
I'm torn. I ended up voting Teddy, as I like him more as and NFL prospect, thus, think he's safer. I do think JF will provide more immediate value, due to the likely rushing production. Very close for me. If Mariota had declared, he'd be right there too, and likely my favorite, for fantasy purposes.
karmarooster
Footballguy
I'd say Bridgewater due to his size (specifically height - has his own question marks on weight aside from Manziel's question marks on height) and better arm. I think he's the superior prospect across all systems.
Manziel on the other hand will be highly dependent on the team/scheme where he lands. If he's drafted by a creative offensive team that will utilize him well, he could really be something. The best case scenario for him was to go to the Eagles, but that looks very unlikely now due to Foles emerging. Earlier in the year I really thought he was tailor made for Chip Kelley's system. If instead he goes to a team that doesn't play to his strengths, his combo of height/tendency to rush and expose himself to hits/average arm strength probably caps his upside. This is of course putting aside all of the psychological question marks and assuming he's fully dedicated to developing as a professional passer.
So basically TODAY - I'd vote Bridgewater. If Manziel lands in the ideal spot (not even sure what that means now that the Eagles seem very unlikely), it could turn out to be him.
Manziel on the other hand will be highly dependent on the team/scheme where he lands. If he's drafted by a creative offensive team that will utilize him well, he could really be something. The best case scenario for him was to go to the Eagles, but that looks very unlikely now due to Foles emerging. Earlier in the year I really thought he was tailor made for Chip Kelley's system. If instead he goes to a team that doesn't play to his strengths, his combo of height/tendency to rush and expose himself to hits/average arm strength probably caps his upside. This is of course putting aside all of the psychological question marks and assuming he's fully dedicated to developing as a professional passer.
So basically TODAY - I'd vote Bridgewater. If Manziel lands in the ideal spot (not even sure what that means now that the Eagles seem very unlikely), it could turn out to be him.
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I voted Teddy. He looks to me more like an NFL QB, not sure why I feel he might have a career similar to Matt Ryan. Just a hunch.
Johnny is too much risk to me, I won't touch him unless he fell to me dirt cheap. To me, it is all about risk and reward.
Johnny is too much risk to me, I won't touch him unless he fell to me dirt cheap. To me, it is all about risk and reward.
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Gandalf
Footballguy
I voted Teddy but it was close. I think it depends on your appetite for risk. I think Johnny will be good and carries higher upside than the safer Bridgewater. If I am taking a QB with a top 5 FF rookie draft pick though, I need to feel like that player won't bust. I think Teddy will not bust no matter where he sinds up. Johnny Football on the other hand carries red flags everywhere. He also carries higher upside. At the end of the day, for me I think I will be more risk averse between the two. Just a feeling and going with my gut.
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by_the_sea_wannabe
:sj:
bortles
MoveToSkypager
Footballguy
ALL IN ON MANZIEL
GeeYouknit
Footballguy
Teddy by a wide margin for me. I don't think Manziel will last very long in the NFL at all. There's about 20 people in a rookie draft I will take before Manziel. Let him be someone elses problem.
Holy Schneikes
Footballguy
Manziel gets heavily dinged for his size (other things as well, but size is a big one).
After Wilson, I'm not sure I'm buying in that heavily on that issue. On the other hand, I am also leery of the rocket up the charts after a big bowl game phenomenon. That doesn't seem to work out well sometimes. Manziel went from a borderline 1st rounder to most, to in the discussion for #1 overall. That's too big a jump for me.
After Wilson, I'm not sure I'm buying in that heavily on that issue. On the other hand, I am also leery of the rocket up the charts after a big bowl game phenomenon. That doesn't seem to work out well sometimes. Manziel went from a borderline 1st rounder to most, to in the discussion for #1 overall. That's too big a jump for me.
JFS171
Footballguy
I think it all boils down to this: risk tolerance. Some of that's going to be based on the manager's approach, and some of it is going to be based on your current team. Personally, I approach fantasy football in a swing-for-the-fences type of mentality. That doesn't mean you make stupid decisions, but taking calculated risks is part of the game. In a way, I see it as betting on myself.
I'd take Manziel because I can see a scenario where he's a top3-5 QB for FF due to the unreal plays he can make. I personally think the kid's a gamer, don't see problems with his arm strength, and has a high, high, high ceiling. Now where he lands MAY influence me to an extent (I personally don't want to see him in Cleveland), but I won't make my decision off of that. If he busts, which is certainly possible, I'm confident in my abilities to acquire a league-average QB (an aging Romo/Roethlisberger for example). I'll find a way to get by... and more and more QBs are coming in future years.
I do agree Teddy is safer, but I don't see Teddy as the next Luck. So for me personally, I'll swing for the fences.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
With a good o-line, Josh Gordan and Jordan Cameron there already, why wouldn't Cleveland be a good landing spot?
I find this interesting as we're seeing a similar diaglog that we had in the Luck v. RGIII debate two years back - albeit those two were considered superior prospects - only the racial roles are flipped against the normal stereotypes in a white v. black QB debate.
Warpig
Footballguy
CLE is a cluster ****. That owner is a moron. If they keep bringing in new coaches every year, every coach is gonna want "his guy" to be QB. No way in hell I would want my potential 1st round pick and star to go there with that volatility.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
If Manziel is truly a franchise QB that would add some stability to the coaching staff in a hurry.
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
is it -1 INT and no penalty for sacks?
JFS171
Footballguy
It was a bit tongue-in-cheek, which is hard to convey via message board sometimes. It's a good offensive situation… I question the coaching he'll get, and I question the overall organizational strength in Cleveland.
JFF is going to need a creative coordinator to take full advantage of his skills. Personally kind of want to see him in Jacksonville with Bradley and Jedd Fisch.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
ratbast
Footballguy
I still think when all is said and done Bridgwater will be the first QB taken. Isn't it possible that any team who wants a QB in this draft is playing their cards hoping he falls to 3, 4 etc? or if they can trade up into the pick, maybe on draft day. It would be a different story if say Denver owned the 6th, then maybe they would favor one of the other guys because they could develop him slowly as the heir apparant, but most don't have the luxury to do that and there is no doubt that Bridgwater is the most established as a smart, pro-ready passer that may be able to play and play well right now.
One thing that is less important than ever is the fact that the rookie salary cap protects them from long term disaster, so salary means a team could actually think "now" and if he fails, we will draft another future guy. Maybe he will never be all world, but most of the other wont either. His floor looks the highest and there are many jobs on the line that wont be able to wait for the next Rodgers who may or may not be the poster boy for development.. Its more Alex Smith etc that need to be thrown into the fire right now. So head coaches probably want Bridgwater and many GMs too because they need to win.
One thing that is less important than ever is the fact that the rookie salary cap protects them from long term disaster, so salary means a team could actually think "now" and if he fails, we will draft another future guy. Maybe he will never be all world, but most of the other wont either. His floor looks the highest and there are many jobs on the line that wont be able to wait for the next Rodgers who may or may not be the poster boy for development.. Its more Alex Smith etc that need to be thrown into the fire right now. So head coaches probably want Bridgwater and many GMs too because they need to win.
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Sabertooth
Footballguy
Teddy for me by a mile.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
At their worst, neither will amount to much in fantasy. At their best, Bridgewater is mide level qb2 while Manziel could serve as a useful low-end qb1.
I go with Manziel in fantasy. Although, if I owned an NFL franchise I'd take Bridgewater.
I go with Manziel in fantasy. Although, if I owned an NFL franchise I'd take Bridgewater.
I'm grateful for this thread because I am going to have to make a call between these two guys in a flex league that allows us to start 2 QBs.
As of right now I am a slight lean toward Manziel, but he and Bridgewater are close enough for me that it's going to depend in part on where they land. What I like about Manziel is the value he is likely to add through rushing stats. I am also aware of some heavy SEC bias, as I've just watched Manziel play a lot more. He has a reputation as a hard worker, a smart player, and is underrated as a pocket passer. I know that at his size he could get hurt running and may not have as long a career as a result, but these days I'll take my chances on a shorter career with good fantasy production; yeah, it's dynasty but who knows what I'll be doing with my life in say, 3-5 years anyway....?
I am very high on Bridgewater as well and feel like he is almost guaranteed to be a solid NFL starter. There don't seem to by any NFL-specific deficiencies with him (smart, accurate, productive) save for a slight frame and I'm not worried about that; he can put on some size in an NFL weight/conditioning program and seems to be able to take a hit. Really the main difference for me is between solid (Brigewater) and the possibility for video-game-type stats with Manziel.
As of right now I am a slight lean toward Manziel, but he and Bridgewater are close enough for me that it's going to depend in part on where they land. What I like about Manziel is the value he is likely to add through rushing stats. I am also aware of some heavy SEC bias, as I've just watched Manziel play a lot more. He has a reputation as a hard worker, a smart player, and is underrated as a pocket passer. I know that at his size he could get hurt running and may not have as long a career as a result, but these days I'll take my chances on a shorter career with good fantasy production; yeah, it's dynasty but who knows what I'll be doing with my life in say, 3-5 years anyway....?
I am very high on Bridgewater as well and feel like he is almost guaranteed to be a solid NFL starter. There don't seem to by any NFL-specific deficiencies with him (smart, accurate, productive) save for a slight frame and I'm not worried about that; he can put on some size in an NFL weight/conditioning program and seems to be able to take a hit. Really the main difference for me is between solid (Brigewater) and the possibility for video-game-type stats with Manziel.
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
cloppbeast said:
RG3 was a top 3 QB PPG during his rookie season. Manziel's ceiling is that, at least. Andy Dalton just finished much higher than QB12 and ranks right around there in most dynasty rankings. He feels much closer to Teddy's floor than ceiling.
Agree. Dalton just finished QB3. Matt Ryan (before this season when he lost Julio and had a very hobbled Roddy) was a mid QB1. I think Teddy fits in well with them, with potential to exceed Ryan.cloppbeast said:
RG3 was a top 3 QB PPG during his rookie season. Manziel's ceiling is that, at least. Andy Dalton just finished much higher than QB12 and ranks right around there in most dynasty rankings. He feels much closer to Teddy's floor than ceiling.
Village Idiot
Pokerguy
One of the knocks on Manziel is he doesn't go through progressions in his reads.One of Bridgewater's strengths is his read progressions.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
One More Rep
Footballguy
I prefer Teddy, he seems more like a can't miss prospect than Manziel does. Manziel presents more upside but I would feel much better looking at Teddy on my roster
FUBAR
Footballguy
I like teddy and think he's less likely to bust, but comparing him to quarterbacks who have the luxury of playing with some of the best receiving groups in the league (when healthy) seems like a reach.Agree. Dalton just finished QB3. Matt Ryan (before this season when he lost Julio and had a very hobbled Roddy) was a mid QB1. I think Teddy fits in well with them, with potential to exceed Ryan.
RG3 was a top 3 QB PPG during his rookie season. Manziel's ceiling is that, at least. Andy Dalton just finished much higher than QB12 and ranks right around there in most dynasty rankings. He feels much closer to Teddy's floor than ceiling.
Not sure who the best comparisons are, but off hand I'd put bridgewater's ceiling around big Ben and Johnny around kap for ff. Not bad but not elite. Bortles has the higher ceiling imo and is the one I'm more likely to draft, if any. But I won't take any in the first.
Texasmouth
Footballguy
I dont like Bridgewater for fantasy or NFL. I am just not sold on him as a franchise QB. I wasnt overly impressed with him in any game. I watched Geno Smith play a lot of games last year and I was never impressed with him either.
Johnny Football will at least be entertaining to watch. I am only praying he somehow escapes being in Oakland. At least in Cleveland he would have Josh Gordon who he can chunk the ball up to like he did Evans in college.
Johnny Football will at least be entertaining to watch. I am only praying he somehow escapes being in Oakland. At least in Cleveland he would have Josh Gordon who he can chunk the ball up to like he did Evans in college.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
We're talking about ceilings. Dalton, Ben and Kaep are not that.
FUBAR
Footballguy
Not everyone has the potential to be elite. Those 3 are all low qb1 types in ff, which is imo best case for Johnny or teddy.If talking real life, Ben and kap are highly successful. Most would be thrilled if their qb were as good as Ben and kap has done well so far
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
I am only talking about FF numbers, and must just disagree with your stance on the 2 players.
The concerns with Teddy aren't about his upside--they're about his size, leadership, and hands(size). His upside is putting on weight, being a leader, and being able to hold onto the ball, in which case he's a franchise QB level prospect. He can make every throw, is very accurate, smart and polished.
How can Manziel's ceiling be anything less than a rookie RG3? The guy has potential to add 800/6 through the ground. Add that to low end QB1 numbers and we're not talking about a low end QB1 anymore.
I realize that not everyone has the potential to be elite. But, again, potential is not the question with these guys--it's their floors that are being questioned.
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Xue
Footballguy
FUBAR
Footballguy
I hear what you're saying, and maybe the #5 QB for one year is his ceiling. But, RG3 was a better passer than Manziel is right now. Johnny does fine, but RG3's arm was surprisingly underrated by many. RG3 just looked better to me than Johnny does.
As for their floor, Johnny's is that he won't stick as a starter if he doesn't develop. Teddy's is he won't be able to withstand playing in the league. Both have more questions than Luck or RG3 did.
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
I am not trying to suggest that Teddy and Manziel are on Luck and RG3's level as prospects. Though, if I am being honest, as an NFL prospect, I like Teddy more than I did RG3--but that's besides the point.
I'm not projecting this, but I think Teddy's ceiling is Aaron Rodgers, and Johnny Football's is something we haven't seen--a junky mix of Jeff Garcia and RG3, maybe. I just don't see their ceilings as an issue, but rather their floors.
And I personally don't have a question about Teddy's floor. He'll put on a bit of weight and the NFL will make sure he stays in one piece.
