Dynasty/Keeper league advice (1 Viewer)

[Evilgrin 72]

Have a chance to get into a relatively high-stakes keeper league. Have never done one before.

Here's the catch - the league is 3-4 years old and suddenly has 4 spots open (makes me a little nervous as my re-draft high-stakes league has been around 12 years and I think we've had that many open spots total in its history.) Right now, they're looking to take the 4 unowned teams' players (they were mainly crappy teams) and dump all their players into the draft pool. Then, the 4 expansion teams will draft 5 rounds alone, before the other teams (who are allowed 5 keepers each) enter the draft in round 6.

Do I even have a chance of being competitive right away without getting very, very lucky? Am I better off drafting all rookies in the 5 rounds and just letting this season tank in hopes of building a dominant team down the road? Should I even get into the league under these conditions?

 

[Zoomanji]

Tough call.

More than likely there won't be much in that draft. If its a league you really want to be in, I would go with youth and rookies in the draft and ride out this season, looking ahead for next.

Hard to say how competitive you can be without knowing who you keep and who the others are keeping, injuries, etc, Its always about luck.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

Tough call.

More than likely there won't be much in that draft. If its a league you really want to be in, I would go with youth and rookies in the draft and ride out this season, looking ahead for next.

Hard to say how competitive you can be without knowing who you keep and who the others are keeping, injuries, etc, Its always about luck.

I won't have any keepers this year - I'm assuming with 8 teams protecting 5 players each, most of the talent one would find in the top 3 rounds of most redrafts will be gone, so it'll basically be like being in a redraft and having no picks in the first 3 rounds, then having 5 picks between 4.5 and 5.12 and then being in a regular spot from rounds 6 on.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

Tough call.

More than likely there won't be much in that draft. If its a league you really want to be in, I would go with youth and rookies in the draft and ride out this season, looking ahead for next.

Hard to say how competitive you can be without knowing who you keep and who the others are keeping, injuries, etc, Its always about luck.

I won't have any keepers this year - I'm assuming with 8 teams protecting 5 players each, most of the talent one would find in the top 3 rounds of most redrafts will be gone, so it'll basically be like being in a redraft and having no picks in the first 3 rounds, then having 5 picks between 4.5 and 5.12 and then being in a regular spot from rounds 6 on.

Judging by standard ADP, I could probably end up with a team that looks like this (or something similar) :QB - Roethlisberger

RB - Knowshon Moreno, Chris Wells

WR - Ocho Cinco, Braylon, Hines

Don't know how competitive that team would be in year 1.

 

[Evilhomer3k]

You can win a league in one year if you get lucky. We had an open spot in my keeper league a few years ago. No one wanted the team (they were bad). I even offered a 50% discount on the team. Eventually, the guy who owned my team with me (actually it was his team originally) took the team to keep us at 12 teams. He won the league that year. He did not finish first in the standings but had a few lucky breaks in the playoffs. He won mostly with his defense (defenses score a ton of points in our league). The next year (2008) he finished in the bottom half of the league even though I believe he had a better overall team.

In the 10 years I've been in the league I have made the playoffs almost every year. I rarely draft rookies during the first rounds in our keeper league (I think the only rookie I've drafted in the last 3 years was Adrian Peterson). Most of the owners fall all over themself trying to grab the next Randy Moss or LaDanian Tomlinson. They'll drop good solid players to get down to 4 keepers (we can keep 4-6) and draft 2-3 rookies in the first four rounds and ignore established, though unspectacular players.

I would draft the best player available based on a redraft league. Age would play a factor but I would look at redraft positioning rather than dynasty positioning. Certainly if you have a chance at someone special who is going to produce this year (Moreno comes to mind) I'd snatch them up. That said I would not pick up Moreno over someone like Turner just because he's a rookie and Turner is 26.

I would grab the guys who WERE the hot rookie prospects (expecially WRs) last year and the year before as you start getting into the draft. Guys like Roddy White and Greg Jennings are good examples. Guys who were drafted higher than they should have been as rookies that are now kind of forgotten. Antonio Bryant, Santonio Holmes, and Roy Williams are all slated to finish around 20th, have shown flashes of greatness, and were drafted as rookies but then forgotten by most owners when they didn't become the next Randy Moss.

Finally, grab backups. Look at RB situations that are a mess this year but where the backup is very talented and could produce next year. This is where you get your Michael Turners. Ray Rice is a good example.

In a dynasty league these guys are locked up because they dont' cost their owner much. In keeper leagues they may be locked up for the season but are generally not kept.

Anyway, I certainly think you can become a contender year one. Be sure to learn the scoring system so you can capitolize on things like QBs or Ds that overscore (like our league). If the league is online be sure to see if you can view past years information (expecially drafts).

Good luck.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

You can win a league in one year if you get lucky. We had an open spot in my keeper league a few years ago. No one wanted the team (they were bad). I even offered a 50% discount on the team. Eventually, the guy who owned my team with me (actually it was his team originally) took the team to keep us at 12 teams. He won the league that year. He did not finish first in the standings but had a few lucky breaks in the playoffs. He won mostly with his defense (defenses score a ton of points in our league). The next year (2008) he finished in the bottom half of the league even though I believe he had a better overall team.

In the 10 years I've been in the league I have made the playoffs almost every year. I rarely draft rookies during the first rounds in our keeper league (I think the only rookie I've drafted in the last 3 years was Adrian Peterson). Most of the owners fall all over themself trying to grab the next Randy Moss or LaDanian Tomlinson. They'll drop good solid players to get down to 4 keepers (we can keep 4-6) and draft 2-3 rookies in the first four rounds and ignore established, though unspectacular players.

I would draft the best player available based on a redraft league. Age would play a factor but I would look at redraft positioning rather than dynasty positioning. Certainly if you have a chance at someone special who is going to produce this year (Moreno comes to mind) I'd snatch them up. That said I would not pick up Moreno over someone like Turner just because he's a rookie and Turner is 26.

I would grab the guys who WERE the hot rookie prospects (expecially WRs) last year and the year before as you start getting into the draft. Guys like Roddy White and Greg Jennings are good examples. Guys who were drafted higher than they should have been as rookies that are now kind of forgotten. Antonio Bryant, Santonio Holmes, and Roy Williams are all slated to finish around 20th, have shown flashes of greatness, and were drafted as rookies but then forgotten by most owners when they didn't become the next Randy Moss.

Finally, grab backups. Look at RB situations that are a mess this year but where the backup is very talented and could produce next year. This is where you get your Michael Turners. Ray Rice is a good example.

In a dynasty league these guys are locked up because they dont' cost their owner much. In keeper leagues they may be locked up for the season but are generally not kept.

Anyway, I certainly think you can become a contender year one. Be sure to learn the scoring system so you can capitolize on things like QBs or Ds that overscore (like our league). If the league is online be sure to see if you can view past years information (expecially drafts).

Good luck.

Great advice, thanks very much.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Have a chance to get into a relatively high-stakes keeper league. Have never done one before.Here's the catch - the league is 3-4 years old and suddenly has 4 spots open (makes me a little nervous as my re-draft high-stakes league has been around 12 years and I think we've had that many open spots total in its history.) Right now, they're looking to take the 4 unowned teams' players (they were mainly crappy teams) and dump all their players into the draft pool. Then, the 4 expansion teams will draft 5 rounds alone, before the other teams (who are allowed 5 keepers each) enter the draft in round 6.Do I even have a chance of being competitive right away without getting very, very lucky? Am I better off drafting all rookies in the 5 rounds and just letting this season tank in hopes of building a dominant team down the road? Should I even get into the league under these conditions?

I have to question why the other 8 owners think that they get any rights to these players. Wouldn't it be more fair to let the 4 new teams take over, draft from these 4 teams as many as they want, and then give a trade window before announcing keepers and starting the 2009 draft?I understand the 5 keepers, but if there are 21+ players worthy of keeping then it seems like the new owners should get the advantage of trading those commodities first.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

Have a chance to get into a relatively high-stakes keeper league. Have never done one before.Here's the catch - the league is 3-4 years old and suddenly has 4 spots open (makes me a little nervous as my re-draft high-stakes league has been around 12 years and I think we've had that many open spots total in its history.) Right now, they're looking to take the 4 unowned teams' players (they were mainly crappy teams) and dump all their players into the draft pool. Then, the 4 expansion teams will draft 5 rounds alone, before the other teams (who are allowed 5 keepers each) enter the draft in round 6.Do I even have a chance of being competitive right away without getting very, very lucky? Am I better off drafting all rookies in the 5 rounds and just letting this season tank in hopes of building a dominant team down the road? Should I even get into the league under these conditions?

I have to question why the other 8 owners think that they get any rights to these players. Wouldn't it be more fair to let the 4 new teams take over, draft from these 4 teams as many as they want, and then give a trade window before announcing keepers and starting the 2009 draft?I understand the 5 keepers, but if there are 21+ players worthy of keeping then it seems like the new owners should get the advantage of trading those commodities first.

I'm not sure I get you.. let me explain better. Right now, they're debating 2 options.1) The 8 existing teams announce their 5 keepers. Everyone else in the NFL save for those 40 players goes into the draft pool. The 4 new teams then draft the first 5 rounds alone : 1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1-1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1-1-2-3-4-. Then, from round 6 on, it goes 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10-11-12-12-11-10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1, etc... standard serpentine.2) The 4 new teams take over the defunct franchises and protect as many players as they want. They then get one draft pick in the first 5 rounds for every open slot they have up to 5 (e.g. you keep 3 players, you get picks in rounds 1 & 2.) Then, after this start to the draft, when all 4 new teams have 5 players on their rosters, the draft begins with round 6 and all 12 teams drafting.So far, they're leaning towards option 1. Were you basically advocating option 2 with your last post?

 

[senor peso 2006]

1) The 8 existing teams announce their 5 keepers. Everyone else in the NFL save for those 40 players goes into the draft pool. The 4 new teams then draft the first 5 rounds alone : 1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1-1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1-1-2-3-4-. Then, from round 6 on, it goes 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10-11-12-12-11-10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1, etc... standard serpentine.

2) The 4 new teams take over the defunct franchises and protect as many players as they want. They then get one draft pick in the first 5 rounds for every open slot they have up to 5 (e.g. you keep 3 players, you get picks in rounds 1 & 2.) Then, after this start to the draft, when all 4 new teams have 5 players on their rosters, the draft begins with round 6 and all 12 teams drafting.

So far, they're leaning towards option 1. Were you basically advocating option 2 with your last post?

I've ran a 10 team keep up to 4 keeper league for 10 years. We run our drafts as per option #2. The thing we do a little differently is our drafting order is straight order, worst to first. I'd suggest, for this year at least, you opt for the straight draft format. It will help some in building up the weaker teams quicker and make it more desirable for a new player to take over a bad team.

As commish in my league I've always tried to build rules that create parity. A team can be a dead last finish and with a decent rebuilding draft can be a playoff worthy team. Parity makes it more interesting for all.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

I've ran a 10 team keep up to 4 keeper league for 10 years. We run our drafts as per option #2. The thing we do a little differently is our drafting order is straight order, worst to first. I'd suggest, for this year at least, you opt for the straight draft format. It will help some in building up the weaker teams quicker and make it more desirable for a new player to take over a bad team.As commish in my league I've always tried to build rules that create parity. A team can be a dead last finish and with a decent rebuilding draft can be a playoff worthy team. Parity makes it more interesting for all.

Interesting idea, this. Wonder if I can convince the commish and existing franchises to go for this set-up. Would make it far more palatable for new owners.

 

[Dave Stauff]

Don't know if you should play, but that's your decision. What intrigues me about your thinking is that you believe you could draft Wells and Moreno (or some such combination of rookies) in Rounds 1-5. If I'm the Commish, the expansion draft is for established players only, with rookies being thrown into the pool only when all 12 franchises are drafting. Be sure to check this our before you commit . . .

 

[Evilgrin 72]

Don't know if you should play, but that's your decision. What intrigues me about your thinking is that you believe you could draft Wells and Moreno (or some such combination of rookies) in Rounds 1-5. If I'm the Commish, the expansion draft is for established players only, with rookies being thrown into the pool only when all 12 franchises are drafting. Be sure to check this our before you commit . . .

I already did - it's wide open for the first 5 rounds - all players are available, rookies and veterans.

 

[Evilhomer3k]

We keep 4-6 and for the first 2 rounds we go straight through 1-12, 1-12 in reverse order of the previous years finish. After that we go serpentine. Tough to set up in the draft dominator but I think it works pretty well to keep the worst teams in the running. By the time you get to round 7 (our first full round, essentially) the draft order doesn't matter quite as much. It also allows strategies like QB,QB for those who don't keep a QB (which I have often done).

 

[Sweet Love]

Hey EG,

I can give you a real world example here. I am in 12 team, keep 3 (36 players), which is basically like your 8-5 (of 40). It is early in our trading period, and teams are jockeying to make sure they have three keepers in the top 36 (of course), but some will go with what equals to a redraft 4-5 rounder, so they do not have to give up a pick to get a little better player (it always works out this way). It is a 1/2 PPR for WRs/RBs and 1 PPR for TEs. Looking over the rosters, here is who I think will be available:

Team Defense: Everyone

Kickers: Everyone

TE: Everyone but Whitten...they guys with Gonzo and Gates, have enough talent to unload until our draft and I would be shocked if they can

QB: I "think" the only ones to be kept will be Manning, Brady, Brees and maybe Romo...romo was just part of a trade (not sure if he was a throw-in), but we all like to have "keeper-types" in stituations where someone gets injured in Camp or Preseason.

You could end up with the following at QB in Rodgers, Rivers, McNabb, Palmer, Cassell, Warner, cutler, Roth or Hass

At RB: Ward, Lynch, Benson, Addai, Jones, Thomas/Bush, McFadden and of course the rookie in Moreno, Wells or Brown

At WR : Roy Williams, Gonzo, Hester, one team will have to release White or Bowe if they cannot move one, Tana Moss, Marshall, avery, Cotch, Berrian, Holmes, and V and/or D Jackson and of course, the rookies.

Every league of course will be differnt due to scoring, but keep in mind there will be owners that just CAN'T move their top 36 guys for whatever reasons, so talent will fall. Personally, I would try to grab Moreno first and go with best talent on the board. Now your league may be different as my guess would be more QBs would be held...even though the draft slots are nearly the same, mentally, when you can keep 5 you may go with 1-3 RBs, 1-3 WRs, but may leave that last slot open for a QB...in a Keep 3, you can get your QB later.

I hope this helps!

 

[Pictus Cat]

Is it a mandatory keeper, that is you must keep 5 from your roster next year?

or

A keep up to 5, draft from the pool minus the pick for each you keep (keep 3, miss pick 1-3)

The first will make it harder in the long run, and it sounds like the value is pretty well taken up.

The other teams get to keep 5, huh? 1 would still be a gift.

I would PASS at 3 or more allowed to be kept by previous owners.

I would CONSIDER at 2 or less and no mandatory # to keep.

Just my opinion.

On the allowing joining teams to keep from their rosters, who is going to take the team with the worst keepers.

I would make a suggestoin that the league keeps 2, the newbs draft 2, draft normally from their with newbs first.

Newbs still at a disadvantage, Prior owners get a preferrence of keepers and advantage.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Have a chance to get into a relatively high-stakes keeper league. Have never done one before.Here's the catch - the league is 3-4 years old and suddenly has 4 spots open (makes me a little nervous as my re-draft high-stakes league has been around 12 years and I think we've had that many open spots total in its history.) Right now, they're looking to take the 4 unowned teams' players (they were mainly crappy teams) and dump all their players into the draft pool. Then, the 4 expansion teams will draft 5 rounds alone, before the other teams (who are allowed 5 keepers each) enter the draft in round 6.Do I even have a chance of being competitive right away without getting very, very lucky? Am I better off drafting all rookies in the 5 rounds and just letting this season tank in hopes of building a dominant team down the road? Should I even get into the league under these conditions?

I have to question why the other 8 owners think that they get any rights to these players. Wouldn't it be more fair to let the 4 new teams take over, draft from these 4 teams as many as they want, and then give a trade window before announcing keepers and starting the 2009 draft?I understand the 5 keepers, but if there are 21+ players worthy of keeping then it seems like the new owners should get the advantage of trading those commodities first.

I'm not sure I get you.. let me explain better. Right now, they're debating 2 options.1) The 8 existing teams announce their 5 keepers. Everyone else in the NFL save for those 40 players goes into the draft pool. The 4 new teams then draft the first 5 rounds alone : 1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1-1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1-1-2-3-4-. Then, from round 6 on, it goes 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10-11-12-12-11-10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1, etc... standard serpentine.2) The 4 new teams take over the defunct franchises and protect as many players as they want. They then get one draft pick in the first 5 rounds for every open slot they have up to 5 (e.g. you keep 3 players, you get picks in rounds 1 & 2.) Then, after this start to the draft, when all 4 new teams have 5 players on their rosters, the draft begins with round 6 and all 12 teams drafting.So far, they're leaning towards option 1. Were you basically advocating option 2 with your last post?

Hey EG,Probably more on me than you in not conveying what I meant.The fairest way for this IMHO is for the 8 teams to keep who they get to keep. Not their fault that 4 guys left.The fairest way for the 4 new guys is to have a pool of everyone on those 4 teams to draft and draft amongst the four (or even better, auction them). That way no one has to take over the worst of the 4 teams. There's bound to be 20 keeper-worthy guys I would guess in 4 teams.The point I was making (or trying to) is that what if these 4 teams have 21+ keeper worthy guys? Why penalize the new guys from being able to grab >5 players and maybe deal one of them for a pick?That's a subtle point though and I'd favor option 2 of the two scenarios above. I tend to agree with a straight draft and/or not including the rookies in the first 5 rounds. If the commish thinks that the 4 new owners need a boost for competitiveness, then allowing rooks in the first 5 rounds will help the 4 new teams.Good luck with the league and have fun with it. With only 5 keepers I doubt it will take long to be competitive.

 

[ratbast]

I play in a 5 keeper 10 team league. It is actually an unfair advantage for you to draft from the whole pool. What about the worst team that didnt quit?

For your advantage you want the pool draft. I dont know why they are throwing the rooks in as I would set it up for you to pick 5 and then the rooks are added to the regular draft.

You definitely want to "draft" your 5. Think about it, the 6th player on the good teams may be better than some of the guys you would have to keep.

 

[Pickle Rody]

Have a chance to get into a relatively high-stakes keeper league. Have never done one before.

Here's the catch - the league is 3-4 years old and suddenly has 4 spots open (makes me a little nervous as my re-draft high-stakes league has been around 12 years and I think we've had that many open spots total in its history.) Right now, they're looking to take the 4 unowned teams' players (they were mainly crappy teams) and dump all their players into the draft pool. Then, the 4 expansion teams will draft 5 rounds alone, before the other teams (who are allowed 5 keepers each) enter the draft in round 6.

Do I even have a chance of being competitive right away without getting very, very lucky? Am I better off drafting all rookies in the 5 rounds and just letting this season tank in hopes of building a dominant team down the road? Should I even get into the league under these conditions?

Yes, you do. When our league entered it's 3rd year we expanded from 10 to 12 teams. We are a 5-player keeper league. The 2 new guys got to select their five "keepers" in an expansion draft. One of them kicked the crap out of me in the championship. He chose keepers well and had a great draft. The ironic thing was, after the draft I told him he did great and that it wouldn't surprise me to see him make a playoff run that year. Who knew? Did I forget to mention that he did it while making only one waiver move all year (to cover a K bye) and made no trades either.

My point is, you should basically look at this as an expansion from 8 - 12 teams. There is plenty of talent out there (with only 40 protected) to put together a solid team and go far in your quest for a high stakes title. It's in your hands now.

GL

Rody

ETA: We've used a straight draft every year except year one. When the expansion teams came aboard they were not permitted to draft rookies in the expansion draft and were given the 11 and 12 picks in the full 12-team draft, which was straight.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

Thanks so much, everyone. Great info here as always. I'm going to get more specific info (*list of players available) and talk out different options with them, I'll post all the developments here.