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Dynasty: Last second trade targets (1 Viewer)

Concept Coop

Footballguy
[SIZE=medium]Fleener/Allen: At the very least, one of the two will be a top 4-7 dynasty TE by the end of the season. Luck will take steps and the team will score more TDs. My biggest targets this off-season. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=medium]Miles Austin: There is a lot of short term potential in this offense, even despite Dez/Witten getting their numbers. He’s a lock for WR2 numbers if healthy, and is not being valued accordingly. He is a perfect target for teams needing an upside flex option, or even short-term WR2 production. A very cheap way to add punch and upside to a WR group. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=medium]RG3: Now might be the last time to move Kaepernick or Wilson (or Brees/Ryan, etc) for him without sending a major piece with them. Everything we’re hearing about his rehab is very positive. He has the highest upside of any QB, and in this crowded, talented, young QB field - upside is key. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=medium]Knile Davis: I just don’t understand why his value is so low. He’s got upside, is in a very favorable situation, and has high handcuff value. No rocket science here. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=medium]EJ Manuel: He’s what Collin Kaepernick was at one point, as a prospect, and I am kicking myself for not making a harder push for CK when I had the chance. Won’t make that mistake again. As with RG3 – and any other potential QB investment I make – it’s about upside. Look at the track record for running QBs lately: Tebow/Newton/Kaepernick/RG3. Pretty good list of fantasy producers. Even Tebow flashed major fantasy potential, when on the field.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=medium]Lance Dunbar: Likely handcuff to a potentially injury prone Murray, in, what I expect to be, a very potent offense. Young and, by all accounts, improving. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=medium]Alshon Jeffery: Talented 2nd[/SIZE] year player on a team that should throw the ball more. He’s in shape and trim, but the fat pics still seem to be affecting his fantasy value. As a rule of thumb, you can make quite a profit investing in WRs whom appear to have their production hindered by another WR on the team. QB production is steadily increasing, but WR1 production isn’t – the NFL is spreading the ball around more and more.

[SIZE=medium]Dallas Cowboys Defense: Tampa II means interceptions, Ware/Spencer should get plenty of sacks, and a healthy Sean Lee/Bruce Carter should mean big plays. If they’re on the wire, they shouldn’t be. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=medium]Yours?[/SIZE]

 
Currently targeting Deangelo Williams and Dion Lewis as buy low RB options in a trade. Dwill more so for this year than long term.

And since the waiver wire is about to blow up starting Thursday night, we may want to discuss last second waiver pickups. I always like to try and grab a couple guys before they become preseason stars on everyone's radar. This year I'm looking at:

Jermaine Kearse WR SEA

Theo Riddick RB DET

Joseph Fauria TE DET

Anyone else have any other good ones?

 
I've grabbed up Golden Tate and Doug Baldwin super cheap this offseason -- with the Harvin injury and TC buzz Tate is probably not a throw in anymore, but you can likely still get him for less than he's worth IMO. I think it's fairly likely that Rice is gone next year, given his huge contract, and I love Russell Wilson's potential.

Isiah Pead is the type of guy I try to buy for peanuts -- fairly high draft pick who did zero as a rookie. I'm not a Stacy believer, and think Richardson looks more like a COP guy.

Any and all Eagles' backup RBs (and obviously McCoy if you can somehow pry him loose). I am a Chip Kelly believer and Philly will be among the league leaders in rushing attempts moving forward. I'm also happen to think that all of Brown, Polk, and even Felix Jones have legit NFL talent.

 
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Fleener - last chance to buy

Mi. Floyd - possible dynasty WR1 by Nov

R. Randle - value next year is going to be a lot higher

Hillman - more affordable Vereen with worse competition

Stepfan Taylor - seas are parting

Pead - being stubborn

J Bell - gotta love those garbage handcuffs with RB1 upside

Helu - same

Bradford - not hugely invested here but think the spread will help him out both NFL and fantasy

 
Fleener - last chance to buy

Mi. Floyd - possible dynasty WR1 by Nov

R. Randle - value next year is going to be a lot higher

Hillman - more affordable Vereen with worse competition

Stepfan Taylor - seas are parting

Pead - being stubborn

J Bell - gotta love those garbage handcuffs with RB1 upside

Helu - same

Bradford - not hugely invested here but think the spread will help him out both NFL and fantasy
[SIZE=10.5pt]Floyd and Randle both fall into my Jeffery asset type, so I agree with them. I'm more likely to invest in Jeffery/Randle, as there is less competition in the price range. I have a hard time paying for Floyd, what I could pay for Shorts. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]Hillman is a guy I’m torn on, after topping the depth chart. I assumed – perhaps wrongly – that his price shot up greatly. I don’t think he’s nearly as safe as Vereen. If he doesn’t start, I don’t see an avenue to RB2 production, unlike Vereen. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]I like the rest, with the exception of Bradford. I don’t see the upside in the investment. Just not the type of payoff I’m looking for. [/SIZE]

 
I've grabbed up Golden Tate and Doug Baldwin super cheap this offseason -- with the Harvin injury and TC buzz Tate is probably not a throw in anymore, but you can likely still get him for less than he's worth IMO. I think it's fairly likely that Rice is gone next year, given his huge contract, and I love Russell Wilson's potential.

Isiah Pead is the type of guy I try to buy for peanuts -- fairly high draft pick who did zero as a rookie. I'm not a Stacy believer, and think Richardson looks more like a COP guy.

Any and all Eagles' backup RBs (and obviously McCoy if you can somehow pry him loose). I am a Chip Kelly believer and Philly will be among the league leaders in rushing attempts moving forward. I'm also happen to think that all of Brown, Polk, and even Felix Jones have legit NFL talent.
I still like Tate. His advanced stats were damn good. He caught his targets at a high rate, and scored on a high rate of those, despite a good % of his targets being beyond 15 yards. I just don't like how sharply the team went away from him over the last few games.

 
I like the rest, with the exception of Bradford. I dont see the upside in the investment. Just not the type of payoff Im looking for.
Agree 100% -- but not even limited to Bradford specifically. If I'm going to roster a young QB, it's going to be a guy that has big potential on the ground. Anyone tried to move a Tony Romo, Andy Dalton, or Big Ben type lately? There's just no market in 1 QB leagues.

 
I like the rest, with the exception of Bradford. I dont see the upside in the investment. Just not the type of payoff Im looking for.
Agree 100% -- but not even limited to Bradford specifically. If I'm going to roster a young QB, it's going to be a guy that has big potential on the ground. Anyone tried to move a Tony Romo, Andy Dalton, or Big Ben type lately? There's just no market in 1 QB leagues.
Yes - I got burned a bit investing in Dalton prior to last season, before Luck/Kaepernick/Wilson/RG3/Ryan all made arguments for top 5 value. I still like him and think he'll pan out - but what's the profit? A backup QB? The field is such that a QB needs to have top 5 potential, or be left alone, in my personal opinion. You can't even get a solid handcuff for guys like Flacco/Ben, etc, today.

 
I'll add a few names to the discussion...

Britt seems greatly devalued due to off-field issues and injury concerns. Even the guys that buy his talent then point to a scatter-shot QB and likely RB-heavy offense. But we've seen Britt overcome these issues before, and the talent is likely there for a top-10 WR in the league. He's just 25, entering a contract year, and doesn't cost nearly as much as you might think. WORST case scenario, we get a very good read on what he is by the end of this season, and can move on accordingly. Best case, you just bought a top-10 WR.

Vick Ballard is a guy I continue to beat the drum for as the Colts appear to absolutely love the guy. He was solid if unspectacular last year, and did everything asked of him by that franchise. My stance on Bradshaw can be found elsewhere, but use it to your advantage to buy Ballard cheap. IMO, Bradshaw hasn't been promised anything and can't seem to GET healthy, let alone STAY healthy. Ballard is running with the 1s, reportedly looks quicker, and is moving to an offense that is a better fit for his skills and has vastly improved the OL.

With Hakeem Nicks, from my perspective, it seems that the injury hate has gone too far. At just 25, he's another WR that a year ago was neary impossible to acquire for less than top-5 prices, given age, situation, and production. An injury riddled season later (in which Eli was borderline awful at points) he's now perceived to be much less of an asset. We've seen Nicks' potential and production sustained, and even if you buy into him missing a game or two, you're going to get excellent production in the games he does play. Just feel he's being devalued.

Finally, Mark Ingram is a guy I've looked to add in leagues. Payton used him improperly in year 1, then had last year to watch as the team continued to struggle to run the football. After a year away to consider his offense and what's most important, Payton has returned preaching that the running game needs to get going. He came to Ingram and told Ingram to get ready to go, and Ingram's shown up quicker, in better shape, and ready to rock. Camp reports are glowing, and let's not forget Pierre Thomas and Sproles are both getting older in terms of RB age. I wouldn't be shocked to see Ingram finally get the 12-15 carries a week with a couple of catches (to keep the D off balance). If that happens, I believe he'll produce and produce quite nicely. Worst case, hold him until 2015 when he likely gets a shot to start somewhere else with a team that may actually use him properly.

 
Agree that Britt is undervalued by most, but doubt he's a true buy low anywhere at this point. There have been so many injuries and arrests (prior chances to get him cheap) that he's owned by a true believer (which is me in all of my leagues) almost everywhere. If anything, I've seen interest in him go UP lately with the quiet offseason and a contract year looming.

 
Well, I was able to get Hillman for DX before the injury, and his ADP may still be in the 100s. He's done all the right things this offseason IMO. And I don't believe in Ball one iota.

Anyone tried to move a Tony Romo, Andy Dalton, or Big Ben type lately? There's just no market in 1 QB leagues.
There's no market for Romo because he's 33. Put those stats in a 25 yo body and he will be very marketable. (Kind of sad I knew their ages without looking it up.) If that's his upside, and I realize you're not really suggesting it is, I think he's still a value.

 
thriftyrocker said:
Coeur de Lion said:
Anyone tried to move a Tony Romo, Andy Dalton, or Big Ben type lately? There's just no market in 1 QB leagues.
There's no market for Romo because he's 33. Put those stats in a 25 yo body and he will be very marketable. (Kind of sad I knew their ages without looking it up.) If that's his upside, and I realize you're not really suggesting it is, I think he's still a value.
Agree to disagree. QB is so deep right now that there really just isn't a market without the monster upside (running) that a Cam Newton or RGIII bring to the table. Even a guy like Andrew Luck has been on the block for months in one of my leagues -- with close to zero interest. Dalton is utterly worthless.

Most teams with Brady, Brees, Rodgers, and Peyton are looking to win now and aren't going to cough up big value for a backup in my experience, The teams with Newton, Luck, RGIII, Kaep, Wilson have no need of Bradford, pretty much no matter what he does this year. The guys with Stafford, Romo and Eli won't view a Bradford as a big upgrade, nor should they.

Again, where's the potential market? 4000 / 30 isn't what it was even a few years ago. Bradford's (and Dalton's, Eli's, etc) upside is to be a disadvantage against most of the league at QB. Young poop is still poop in most cases.

 
thriftyrocker said:
Coeur de Lion said:
Anyone tried to move a Tony Romo, Andy Dalton, or Big Ben type lately? There's just no market in 1 QB leagues.
There's no market for Romo because he's 33. Put those stats in a 25 yo body and he will be very marketable. (Kind of sad I knew their ages without looking it up.) If that's his upside, and I realize you're not really suggesting it is, I think he's still a value.
Agree to disagree. QB is so deep right now that there really just isn't a market without the monster upside (running) that a Cam Newton or RGIII bring to the table. Even a guy like Andrew Luck has been on the block for months in one of my leagues -- with close to zero interest. Dalton is utterly worthless.Most teams with Brady, Brees, Rodgers, and Peyton are looking to win now and aren't going to cough up big value for a backup in my experience, The teams with Newton, Luck, RGIII, Kaep, Wilson have no need of Bradford, pretty much no matter what he does this year. The guys with Stafford, Romo and Eli won't view a Bradford as a big upgrade, nor should they.

Again, where's the potential market? 4000 / 30 isn't what it was even a few years ago. Bradford's (and Dalton's, Eli's, etc) upside is to be a disadvantage against most of the league at QB. Young poop is still poop in most cases.
I think Bradford and even Freeman are being grossly undervalued. They still have plenty of potential to grow into clear top 10 guys. Heck, I'd give Bradford at least a 25 percent chance of developing into a top 5.

 
I think Bradford and even Freeman are being grossly undervalued. They still have plenty of potential to grow into clear top 10 guys. Heck, I'd give Bradford at least a 25 percent chance of developing into a top 5.
Top 5 is consistent prime Peyton Manning numbers. I put those odds at 0. Freeman is much more likely to be benched and a career backup than to be the next Peyton Manning. I'd put his chances at 0, too.

 
Concept Coop said:
[SIZE=medium]Fleener/Allen: At the very least, one of the two will be a top 4-7 dynasty TE by the end of the season. Luck will take steps and the team will score more TDs. My biggest targets this off-season. [/SIZE]
Allen was my biggest target all offseason. I do think his ceiling is lower (as a great blocker) than Fleener.

Stanford 2TE offense installed. By the sound of camp, Fleener's been outstanding and will do more receiving and less blocking. Wouldn't be surprised to see him finish with double digit TD's.

I've heard all the DHB/TY battle talk. I actually think Fleener is going to take the biggest leap as receiver in this offense.

 
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I think Bradford and even Freeman are being grossly undervalued. They still have plenty of potential to grow into clear top 10 guys. Heck, I'd give Bradford at least a 25 percent chance of developing into a top 5.
Top 5 is consistent prime Peyton Manning numbers. I put those odds at 0. Freeman is much more likely to be benched and a career backup than to be the next Peyton Manning. I'd put his chances at 0, too.
Bradford was awful last year. Rodgers was better, but not much better at 25. We also didn't get to see Rodgers at 22-24.

Dont underestimate the impact of having a real O-line and WRs can have.

Not saying it's likely. I'm saying it's possible. And for the price, I'm willing to buy that possibility.

Things are going to be fun when the older standards decline / retire, and one or more of the new guard flames out. Depth has a way of disappearing quickly.

 
Bradford was awful last year. Rodgers was better, but not much better at 25. We also didn't get to see Rodgers at 22-24.Dont underestimate the impact of having a real O-line and WRs can have.

Not saying it's likely. I'm saying it's possible. And for the price, I'm willing to buy that possibility.

Things are going to be fun when the older standards decline / retire, and one or more of the new guard flames out. Depth has a way of disappearing quickly.
I feel like I have seen enough Bradford and Freeman to safely rule it out. That is just my opinion, however.

And I have a different opinion on the state of the QB in fantasy formats. Attempts are rising - what once was a major separator, is much less so today. We're going to see less and less top seasons based on volume (Schaub/Rivers). On top of that, I don't think the running QB is going anywhere. Those who don't add points on the ground are going to find it harder and harder to keep up.

While the QB talent level could certainly fade, the value barriers are still going to be there, in my opinion.

 
In 2008, 25 year old Rodgers threw for 4038 - 28 - 13 and ran for 207 - 4 to finish QB2. That stat line would have put him at QB11 in 2012. Even if Bradford can put up that passing line moving forward (which is his reasonable upside, and rather unlikely IMO, and he's not even close to the runner that young Rodgers was) he's still fantasy backup material in today's NFL.

 
I think you guys are helping to make my point that he's ridiculously cheap to acquire right now, heh

 
Attempts are rising - what once was a major separator, is much less so today.
What makes you say that?

Several playoff teams had low numbers of passing attempts including both SB competitors.

We're going to see less and less top seasons based on volume (Schaub/Rivers).
Rivers volume increased as the team got worse. He was an elite QB when his Y/A was elite. When he was efficient, not due to volume.

Schaub's one good year he had 583 attempts to lead the league. Rivers was 19th in attempts that year and scored 10 less FP for the year.

I think you're forgetting what Rivers was before injury/facepalm.

It sounds like if Rivers came into the league again (not being able to predict his decline) you wouldn't draft him out of dogma, and I think that's wrong.

 
I think Fleener improves but isn't a true breakout. I think this time next year, you can still get him without talking untouchable.

Ryan Matthews. I think this is the time to buy him.

 
Attempts are rising - what once was a major separator, is much less so today.
What makes you say that?

Several playoff teams had low numbers of passing attempts including both SB competitors.

We're going to see less and less top seasons based on volume (Schaub/Rivers).
Rivers volume increased as the team got worse. He was an elite QB when his Y/A was elite. When he was efficient, not due to volume.

Schaub's one good year he had 583 attempts to lead the league. Rivers was 19th in attempts that year and scored 10 less FP for the year.

I think you're forgetting what Rivers was before injury/facepalm.

It sounds like if Rivers came into the league again (not being able to predict his decline) you wouldn't draft him out of dogma, and I think that's wrong.
The gap between the top of the league, and the rest of the league, in terms of attempts, is shrinking. Peyton Manning's career average of 556/game is not the hurdle that it once was, for the baseline QB. The gap bewteen 'passing offense' and 'offense' isn't what it once was. More QB get enough attempts to challenge for a top 5 season, any given year.

I think it's fair to say that I am not giving Rivers due credit, in suggesting his production was tied to attempts. However, his high season total of 348 pts, would have placed him 9th this year, tied with Stafford in a down year, and a rookie Andrew Luck.

It's not that my 'dogma' would prevent me from drafting him; my dogma would have led me to draft Newton, RG3, Keapernick, Tebow (to be fair), and now, Manuel. As CdL said: 4000/30 isn't what it used to be. A fantasy QB has to do more to give his owners an advantage.

In back to back seasons rookie QBs with below average weapons have finished top 5 in PPG. Times are changing. I think anyone who views the QB position the same as he or she did last season (even) is a step behind. A lot changed.

 
Also, it's not fair for me to suggest Rivers' attempts wouldn't have gone up a great deal - I feel they would have, and he likely would have finished higher than 9th. But my point is - the production needed to be an advantage at QB is not what it was, even 5 years ago.

I would feel little need to invest much in an incoming Philip Rivers in the current dynasty state. The path to top 5 numbers is, for the most part, one of two directions: Add points on the ground (Newton, RG3) or be a first ballot HOFer in your prime (Brees, Brady, Manning, Rodgers). I'm not betting on many rookies to join that group.

ETA: The lone exception being Stafford, who set the NFL record for attempts, in a year without Peyton/RG3.

 
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I think Peyton Manning is actually undervalued also -- I think he'll probably play until he breaks Favre's records, which would be through the 2015 season. I also don't see him declining much, if at all -- his game is 99% above the neck and not really as subject to aging. I don't need a QB anywhere really, but if I did he's the guy I'd buy. Tons of people think he's a one year rental with elevated injury risk it seems -- I think he'll continue to be a stud for three more years or so.

 
I think Fleener improves but isn't a true breakout. I think this time next year, you can still get him without talking untouchable.

Ryan Matthews. I think this is the time to buy him.
I want to believe you on Mathews, but we're now on the second coaching staff that's trying to split the workload.

 
In back to back seasons rookie QBs with below average weapons have finished top 5 in PPG. Times are changing. I think anyone who views the QB position the same as he or she did last season (even) is a step behind. A lot changed.
I think that's the trap though. After 2011 we overvalued QB as a whole because there were so few. Now we're undervaluing because there are so many. Pre-2010 we undervalued running QBs because Young, Vick, etc. flame out, always get hurt, and are never consistent QB1. Now we undervalue pocket passers because of the read option and its short term success.

The NFL changes in ways we're not anticipating. Maybe you know more than I but to just take the success of the recent QBs at face value and project forward I don't think is appreciating how fast things can change. Defenses adjust, offenses adjust back. Guys get hurt and change their game. Teams lose and change their gameplan. Players develop, have the game slow down, and pass more. The rookie payscale will affect burnout rate.

CFB has provided us with Cam, Kap, RG3. But what's next? Not necessarily the hybrid. Geno and EJ both have speed but they did not make do with their feet in college. Bridgewater is fast but not a runner. Boyd has legs but is more similar to Wilson than the others. "Gotta have a rusher, gotta have a rusher," well CFB became a passing league too. CFB QBs are better athletes but also better QBs.

What if the norm for rushing upside becomes Steve Young/Aaron Rodgers/Donovan McNabb rushing and not RG3/Vick/Cam rushing? What if the padded stats from rushing no longer is enough to offset the yardage difference from a good pocket passer? If you hype EJ and RG3 you can't assume 900 yards rushing. It is not a given. You compare EJ to Kap but Kap is a much more gifted runner.

I would feel little need to invest much in an incoming Philip Rivers in the current dynasty state. The path to top 5 numbers is, for the most part, one of two directions: Add points on the ground (Newton, RG3) or be a first ballot HOFer in your prime (Brees, Brady, Manning, Rodgers). I'm not betting on many rookies to join that group.
It's easy to predict who is not going to be a first ballot HOFer; just say they all aren't and you'll have a good hit rate. I think you're compartmentalizing too much. The path to top 5 numbers is being an elite QB. Classification be damned. If you believe Bridgewater or EJ Manuel will be an elite QB you should draft him despite how many rushing attempts you project. Using rushing as a crutch just opens you up to drafting Jake Locker. For most prospects rushing stats will only work to pad the floor.

 
In back to back seasons rookie QBs with below average weapons have finished top 5 in PPG. Times are changing. I think anyone who views the QB position the same as he or she did last season (even) is a step behind. A lot changed.
I think that's the trap though. After 2011 we overvalued QB as a whole because there were so few. Now we're undervaluing because there are so many. Pre-2010 we undervalued running QBs because Young, Vick, etc. flame out, always get hurt, and are never consistent QB1. Now we undervalue pocket passers because of the read option and its short term success.

The NFL changes in ways we're not anticipating. Maybe you know more than I but to just take the success of the recent QBs at face value and project forward I don't think is appreciating how fast things can change. Defenses adjust, offenses adjust back. Guys get hurt and change their game. Teams lose and change their gameplan. Players develop, have the game slow down, and pass more. The rookie payscale will affect burnout rate.

CFB has provided us with Cam, Kap, RG3. But what's next? Not necessarily the hybrid. Geno and EJ both have speed but they did not make do with their feet in college. Bridgewater is fast but not a runner. Boyd has legs but is more similar to Wilson than the others. "Gotta have a rusher, gotta have a rusher," well CFB became a passing league too. CFB QBs are better athletes but also better QBs.

What if the norm for rushing upside becomes Steve Young/Aaron Rodgers/Donovan McNabb rushing and not RG3/Vick/Cam rushing? What if the padded stats from rushing no longer is enough to offset the yardage difference from a good pocket passer? If you hype EJ and RG3 you can't assume 900 yards rushing. It is not a given. You compare EJ to Kap but Kap is a much more gifted runner.

I would feel little need to invest much in an incoming Philip Rivers in the current dynasty state. The path to top 5 numbers is, for the most part, one of two directions: Add points on the ground (Newton, RG3) or be a first ballot HOFer in your prime (Brees, Brady, Manning, Rodgers). I'm not betting on many rookies to join that group.
It's easy to predict who is not going to be a first ballot HOFer; just say they all aren't and you'll have a good hit rate. I think you're compartmentalizing too much. The path to top 5 numbers is being an elite QB. Classification be damned. If you believe Bridgewater or EJ Manuel will be an elite QB you should draft him despite how many rushing attempts you project. Using rushing as a crutch just opens you up to drafting Jake Locker. For most prospects rushing stats will only work to pad the floor.
[SIZE=10.5pt]Our rankings, or assigned value, are simply a collection of hypothetical roster moves. Today, the QB field is flooded; that is going to affect said roster moves. I like Cam as a fantasy player just as much as I did a year ago. A year ago he was my #1 player in 4 pt passing leagues. Today, I wouldn’t draft him in the first 2 rounds, in most formats. What changed? Now my opponents have additional options at the position. A year ago, my opponents had to select between older, proven production, or unproven, young, potential. Wilson, Kaepernick, Luck, RG3, and Ryan have changed that. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]It is easy to point to such a change and call it overreaction. It could prove to be; just as easily as a more moderate reaction could prove to be behind the times. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]I see the evolution of the QB at every level and don’t expect it to stop changing over night. You and I have had this conversation before, in which I’ve made the same points - but look at the Heisman winners over the last 10 years. Look at the QB rushing records getting shredded yearly. Pick up a scouting magazine and see that they have QB prospects in two categories. I don’t see it changing. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]Bridgewater is “not a rushing QB” by todays standards. That is more damning of your claim, in my opinion. Steve Young isn’t a rushing QB by today’s standards, and (for another couple years) owns most career rushing records. If the non-rushing QBs like Russell Wilson are adding 4 PPG on the ground – how is that not an indication of how important rushing production is becoming? 4 points a game is an extra 100 passing yards in many formats. Russell Wilson! – and before we look at his big TD explosion – the 4PPG is independent of it. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=medium][/SIZE][SIZE=10.5pt]The path to top 5 numbers is being an elite QB.”[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]For pocket passers – yes. Running QBs play by a different reward scale. Cam Newton was not an elite QB this year, or last, for that matter. Yet, he’s never been anything but top 5. Tim Tebow had a very good stretch of fantasy production, when given the opportunity to throw the ball a little bit. He's as far from elite as it gets. Collin Kaepernick played in a very safe system, often grinding the clock out - look what he did in the playoffs when SF needed to open things up. I think we can safely say that running QBs don't need to be an elite QB to put up top 5 numbers. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]As for what's next form CFB - there are plenty of guys with potential, who fit the read option mold. Outside of Bridgewater - I don't feel good projecting any 1st round picks right now, but surely, they will present themselves. Some will more traditional, some will be running QBs. [/SIZE]

 
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I would take Cam and Luck in the mid 2nd today. Dynasty value includes risk aversion especially at the top. It doesn't matter what the landscape is today. We know the landscape will change as the older set falls away. We don't know if CFB will provide as steady a stream of replacements as it has the past two years. Class of 83 didn't lead to an equally rich class of 84, 85, and 86.

Cam has an elite skillset for fantasy football. So does Luck. Russell Wilson might not. The 4 ppg (less than 3 if you through out Buffalo) padded Wilson's production to barely startable. EJ Manuel isn't the pocket QB Wilson is. Pad his passing with 4 ppg and he's not startable. He's a detriment compared to Eli.


Bridgewater is a passing QB. Young was a passing QB. Culpepper was a passing QB. McNabb was a passing QB. Geno runs a better than expected 40 time and suddenly we expect him to run the read-option despite him failing at it in college. How many college QBs from the dual threat column will become elite NFL QBs. At one point Russell Shepard and Jordan Reed were top 5 in that column and now find their way to the NFL as receivers. Finding elite QBs is hard regardless of what traits you look for.

 
Randle - The hype on him could hit as high as Cobb last year especially if they don't resign Nicks.

Ingram - Can be had for pennies, right now he is that guy owners hate, too much talent to cut, but barely worth a roster spot. Can throw a 2014 late second or 3rd and maybe land him. He would be the perfect flip if he has a decent game or two early on.

Shorts - A lot of people still think last year was a fluke.

Broyles - Perfect compliment to Calvin. If he stays healthy. Worth the gamble

Ertz - If Kelley makes it as an NFL coach this guy will be huge for that offense

Eifert - Will be a top 5 te for years.

Streeter - Moore isn't a number 1.

Kelce - As bad as this draft was fantasy wise it might be gold for the tight ends. Not to mention Alex Smith loves to hit the tight end.

 
I would take Cam and Luck in the mid 2nd today. Dynasty value includes risk aversion especially at the top. It doesn't matter what the landscape is today. We know the landscape will change as the older set falls away. We don't know if CFB will provide as steady a stream of replacements as it has the past two years. Class of 83 didn't lead to an equally rich class of 84, 85, and 86.

Cam has an elite skillset for fantasy football. So does Luck. Russell Wilson might not. The 4 ppg (less than 3 if you through out Buffalo) padded Wilson's production to barely startable. EJ Manuel isn't the pocket QB Wilson is. Pad his passing with 4 ppg and he's not startable. He's a detriment compared to Eli.


Bridgewater is a passing QB. Young was a passing QB. Culpepper was a passing QB. McNabb was a passing QB. Geno runs a better than expected 40 time and suddenly we expect him to run the read-option despite him failing at it in college. How many college QBs from the dual threat column will become elite NFL QBs. At one point Russell Shepard and Jordan Reed were top 5 in that column and now find their way to the NFL as receivers. Finding elite QBs is hard regardless of what traits you look for.
Wilson had 489 rushing yards in 2012, and an additional 120 in 2 playoff games. The Seahawks ran the read option more as the season went on. Wilson scored on par with Rodgers over his last 11 NFL games. His attempts/game were very low. I fully expect them to increase, as he is given more freedom.

My argument doesn't revolve around EJ Manuel. He could bust and the league still be more influenced by the running QB than ever before. I like him more than the late 2nd rounder he costs right now; but he's not the foundation of my argument. Sure, if we limit his running production to 4PPG, he's not likely to be relevant - but even that depends on our projections of his passing production. I don't put his ceiling on the ground at 4, however.

Eli Manning - you bring up - has been one of the better NFL QBs in the league, and was considered an elite prospect when he came out. You use him as a negative upside for Manuel; for pocket passers, he is much more than that. Bradford could turn his career around only ever be Eli Manning. Geno Smith would shock just about everyone, by having an Eli Manning like career.

I am not suggesting that the league will be dominated by running QBs, but I do think they need to be accounted for.

 
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Randle - The hype on him could hit as high as Cobb last year especially if they don't resign Nicks.

Ingram - Can be had for pennies, right now he is that guy owners hate, too much talent to cut, but barely worth a roster spot. Can throw a 2014 late second or 3rd and maybe land him. He would be the perfect flip if he has a decent game or two early on.

Shorts - A lot of people still think last year was a fluke.

Broyles - Perfect compliment to Calvin. If he stays healthy. Worth the gamble

Ertz - If Kelley makes it as an NFL coach this guy will be huge for that offense

Eifert - Will be a top 5 te for years.

Streeter - Moore isn't a number 1.

Kelce - As bad as this draft was fantasy wise it might be gold for the tight ends. Not to mention Alex Smith loves to hit the tight end.
I like this list.

 
Percy Harvin

Michael Crabtree

Rob Gronkowski

Tyler Eifert

Any other phenomenally talented player whose outlook is less than rosy for 2013.

 
Percy Harvin

Michael Crabtree

Rob Gronkowski

Tyler Eifert

Any other phenomenally talented player whose outlook is less than rosy for 2013.
The shipped has sailed on Gronk and Eifert. All the panicked Gronk owners have sold him for fifty cents on the dollar. Eifert stock is going up and no owner in their right mind would trade him cheap now

 
The ship might have sailed on Rueben Randle, but he was the first guy who came to mind here. I also think it might be worth jumping on the Markus Wheaton train before it leaves the station.

 
Percy Harvin

Michael Crabtree

Rob Gronkowski

Tyler Eifert

Any other phenomenally talented player whose outlook is less than rosy for 2013.
The shipped has sailed on Gronk and Eifert. All the panicked Gronk owners have sold him for fifty cents on the dollar. Eifert stock is going up and no owner in their right mind would trade him cheap now
Eifert's stock might be going up, but from the sound of it, it's going to take another big jump once Hard Knocks airs. A guy can be expensive and still a "last chance" target if he's only going to get more expensive still.

It's true that Gronk owners have had plenty of chance to sell by this point, but if for some reason they haven't (maybe they've been away for the offseason?), I think this is your last chance to get him discounted. The overwhelming majority of owners would prefer Graham to Gronk in dynasty. I think once Gronk gets on the field and reminds people what he's capable of, that'll change in a hurry.

I was going to mention Griffin, too, but I think the ship has legitimately sailed on that one.

 
Let's say you own Graham...................what would it take on top of Gronk for you to make that swap?? I know MOST prefer Graham. I am one of them. But what's it worth on top of Gronk to not have him for (probably) the first half of the fantasy regular season?

 
One for each position:

QB: EJ Manuel

RB: Mark Ingram

WR: Michael Floyd

TE: Tyler Eifert

Might cost a decent amount to trade for them, but I believe that by midseason, all will be worth more than you paid.

 
I think Fleener improves but isn't a true breakout. I think this time next year, you can still get him without talking untouchable.

Ryan Matthews. I think this is the time to buy him.
I want to believe you on Mathews, but we're now on the second coaching staff that's trying to split the workload.
He didn't see a full workload in 2011 when he finished in the top ten either. People are making Woodhead a case against Mathews, but he's still seriously undervalued given that he's performed at a top level with a timeshare in the past.

In 2011, Tolbert had 54 receptions (70 targets) for 400 yards and 120 carries for 480 yards on 48% of the team's snaps. Mathews only played 55% of the team's snaps. In fact, Mathews was in on 239 pass plays versus Tolbert's 286. That very well may be a comparable split we see in '13 with Mathews/Woodhead.

We don't know what the split will be at this point, but a SD timeshare shouldn't be the nail in the coffin that many are making it for Mathews.

 

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