Dynasty league RBs (1 Viewer)

[Portis 26]

For those of us in dynasty leagues, now is a great time to trade. All the confusion and uncertainty at this time of year should help the more informed trader to get the best deal.

Also, and there's no other way to put this - now is a very *emotional* time of year for guys in dynasty leagues. They want to revamp their roster with the coolest most exciting talent and to get rid of all the old dross on their roster. What this means in reality is that the price for some guys is artificially high and for others it's artificially low. For example, if you tried to trade for Ron Dayne in a dynasty league you'd have to pay a king's ransom. Everyone and his mother has him down as a nice sleeper figure who could easily end up starting next season. But equally if you tried to trade for Ricky Williams or Priest Holmes you could probably pick them up for next to nothing. Everyone figures they're done.

So what the wily dynasty owner should be doing is targetting the unfashionable players who presently offer good value.

Here are some thoughts about veteran RBs and which ones to target and avoid.

RICKY WILLIAMS -- If you can get him for next to nothing, why not? Who knows if he's going to avoid a suspension? If he does, he could be huge value. What if he ends up starting for the Broncos, for example? You never know.

PRIEST HOLMES - Similarly, why not? It looks right now like he's going to retire. But what if he doesn't? Even in RBBC with LJ he would be great value. And there's even a dark horse chance that he could be cut or traded and end up on another team as their starting RB.

DUCE STALEY - Another guy who has almost no value right now. But what if he does play the Bettis role? Someone's going to have to run those TDs in, because Parker sure as heck isn't going to. If the Steelers don't draft a RB high suddenly Staley could have real nice value. Last year he got hurt and seemed to go into a funk. But he's still a very talented back and he's not ancient either.

RON DAYNE - I think you'll have to overpay to get him. Plus what are the chances of him bombing out again? Pretty high, right? I mean, every off-season there's Dayne hype and he never produces.

MARSHALL FAULK - Another back with zero value who could quietly be a useful contributor. Linehan seems to want to incorporate him into the offense more. Of course if Jackson gets hurt his value skyrockets. If you can pick him up on waivers, why not?

LEE SUGGS - He got beat out by Droughns last year who is now entrenched. He's the forgotten man. But a couple years ago in those huge Green-Suggs discussions there were many who insisted he was highly talented and could explode. He might be worth picking up.

TRAVIS HENRY - Had a horrible season last year and is a forgotten man. He's still the 1000 yard monster who looked great in Buffalo. What if Brown gets hurt? Pretty likely, right? Doesn't he have a great chance of going off?

CORRELL BUCKHALTER - I know he's always, always hurt, but right now he could be the pound it out back in Philly next year and offers considerable potential value.

NICK GOINGS - Foster is an accident waiting to happen and Shelton didn't impress, so what are the chances Goings could carry the load again? When he had the opportunity a couple seasons ago he put up excellent numbers.

JUSTIN FARGAS - Completely forgotten, but he was highly touted coming out of college, and Al Davis is said to be high on him, so maybe the new coaching regime will give him a chance. Not going to beat out Jordan but worth picking up to stash on a deep roster.

CURTIS MARTIN - If you only want one season out of him, and you're not expecting miracles, he might be able to offer OK production. Remember, although he's ancient, he was hurt last year.

MICHAEL PITTMAN - Can't see him seeing the field if Cadillac is healthy. But that's no given.

DOMINIC RHODES - The price is too high right now. Too many guys figure he could be the starter. And he's looked beat up and ineffective the last few years.

KEVIN FAULK - Just have a sneaking little suspicion that he might start getting more carries next season if Dillon continues to be unimpressive.

 

[Napoleon Dynamite]

For those of us in dynasty leagues, now is a great time to trade. All the confusion and uncertainty at this time of year should help the more informed trader to get the best deal.

Also, and there's no other way to put this - now is a very *emotional* time of year for guys in dynasty leagues. They want to revamp their roster with the coolest most exciting talent and to get rid of all the old dross on their roster. What this means in reality is that the price for some guys is artificially high and for others it's artificially low. For example, if you tried to trade for Ron Dayne in a dynasty league you'd have to pay a king's ransom. Everyone and his mother has him down as a nice sleeper figure who could easily end up starting next season. But equally if you tried to trade for Ricky Williams or Priest Holmes you could probably pick them up for next to nothing. Everyone figures they're done.

So what the wily dynasty owner should be doing is targetting the unfashionable players who presently offer good value.

Here are some thoughts about veteran RBs and which ones to target and avoid.

RICKY WILLIAMS -- If you can get him for next to nothing, why not? Who knows if he's going to avoid a suspension? If he does, he could be huge value. What if he ends up starting for the Broncos, for example? You never know.

PRIEST HOLMES - Similarly, why not? It looks right now like he's going to retire. But what if he doesn't? Even in RBBC with LJ he would be great value. And there's even a dark horse chance that he could be cut or traded and end up on another team as their starting RB.

DUCE STALEY - Another guy who has almost no value right now. But what if he does play the Bettis role? Someone's going to have to run those TDs in, because Parker sure as heck isn't going to. If the Steelers don't draft a RB high suddenly Staley could have real nice value. Last year he got hurt and seemed to go into a funk. But he's still a very talented back and he's not ancient either.

RON DAYNE - I think you'll have to overpay to get him. Plus what are the chances of him bombing out again? Pretty high, right? I mean, every off-season there's Dayne hype and he never produces.

MARSHALL FAULK - Another back with zero value who could quietly be a useful contributor. Linehan seems to want to incorporate him into the offense more. Of course if Jackson gets hurt his value skyrockets. If you can pick him up on waivers, why not?

LEE SUGGS - He got beat out by Droughns last year who is now entrenched. He's the forgotten man. But a couple years ago in those huge Green-Suggs discussions there were many who insisted he was highly talented and could explode. He might be worth picking up.

TRAVIS HENRY - Had a horrible season last year and is a forgotten man. He's still the 1000 yard monster who looked great in Buffalo. What if Brown gets hurt? Pretty likely, right? Doesn't he have a great chance of going off?

CORRELL BUCKHALTER - I know he's always, always hurt, but right now he could be the pound it out back in Philly next year and offers considerable potential value.

NICK GOINGS - Foster is an accident waiting to happen and Shelton didn't impress, so what are the chances Goings could carry the load again? When he had the opportunity a couple seasons ago he put up excellent numbers.

JUSTIN FARGAS - Completely forgotten, but he was highly touted coming out of college, and Al Davis is said to be high on him, so maybe the new coaching regime will give him a chance. Not going to beat out Jordan but worth picking up to stash on a deep roster.

CURTIS MARTIN - If you only want one season out of him, and you're not expecting miracles, he might be able to offer OK production. Remember, although he's ancient, he was hurt last year.

MICHAEL PITTMAN - Can't see him seeing the field if Cadillac is healthy. But that's no given.

DOMINIC RHODES - The price is too high right now. Too many guys figure he could be the starter. And he's looked beat up and ineffective the last few years.

KEVIN FAULK - Just have a sneaking little suspicion that he might start getting more carries next season if Dillon continues to be unimpressive.

So which ones do we avoid? It reads like they are all worth keeping around

 

[Portis 26]

So which ones do we avoid? It reads like they are all worth keeping around

Well, I wouldn't go for Dayne or Rhodes right now because the price is too high.

 

[5Rings]

I think Barlow is worth picking up if you can get him cheap.

Even if Gore takes hold of the starting job, how many guys (for Barlow's low price) can you get that still will probably get 100 touches this year? This doesn't take into account Gore's injury history, or the odds that Barlow might find a better (DEN?) home next year.

We've all been burned by the Barlow Kool-Aid, but he's a good buy low candidate right now, IMO.

 

[happy_donut]

cedric benson is a player i would target right now. his value is murky, but he has a lot of upside. i think he will be better this year with a training camp under his belt.

 

[Portis 26]

cedric benson is a player i would target right now. his value is murky, but he has a lot of upside. i think he will be better this year with a training camp under his belt.

He does, although I guess he's not the kind of player I had in mind for this thread. I was thinker older or less valuable guys. Benson is still highly ranked in dynasty leagues - he tends to go in the late 2nd, early 3rd round in initial drafts.

 

[fsufan]

TRAVIS HENRY - Had a horrible season last year and is a forgotten man. He's still the 1000 yard monster who looked great in Buffalo. What if Brown gets hurt? Pretty likely, right? Doesn't he have a great chance of going off?

I have Brown in 2 dynasty leagues. I am trying to trade for Henry for the handcuff. I think it is smart for any Brwon owner to do this. If Brown goes down for a long period of time Henry will be a good play.

 

[fsufan]

CURTIS MARTIN - If you only want one season out of him, and you're not expecting miracles, he might be able to offer OK production. Remember, although he's ancient, he was hurt last year.

I think martin could have one more solid year left in him. I would think you could get him a 2nd round pick or give up a vet WR.

 

[Cannon Fodder]

What about Duckett, what do you see his value at?

 

[EBF]

I had thought that Benson might be a good bargain in the mold of Larry Johnson, but people don't seem to care about his uneventful rookie season. He's been going extremely high in dynasty drafts and appears to be a poor value.

I think Suggs/Green are interesting options in Cleveland. There's not much remaining optimism about either guy around these parts, but neither has really been given a chance to succeed with a competent coaching staff. If Droughns goes down or if either of these guys changes teams then we could see a Thomas Jones type situation (forgotten player emerging).

Chester Taylor is an interesting proposition for redraft leagues. I don't think I could stomach the risk in a dynasty draft, but he could end up being one of the year's big surprises.

Ahman Green is another guy to watch. Everyone insists that he's done, but he's plenty young and he really doesn't have any more mileage than guys like Edge and Alexander. Green Bay is a bit of a mess, but he could easily have a breakout year. His situation reminds me of Corey Dillon's a few years back. Everyone wrote him off after his bad final season as a Bengal, but there was still plenty of gas left in the tank.

Jamal Lewis is in a similar situation and is also worth a look.

 

[Portis 26]

What about Duckett, what do you see his value at?

Not great to be honest, don't think he's going to achieve anything in Atlanta, he has a shot I guess if he goes elsewhere.

 

[Buckeyedawgs]

Out of that list I have Rhodes on one team. That is it. That is why all my teams made playofffs last year probably. lol

Duckett is an injury away froim being usefull. Though Dunn has held up nicely last two years. I have him on a dynasty team as a 4th back. Just in case.

I dumped Green after his injury last year. Kept Walker. A IR decision that I had to make.

 

[mike11162]

What about Tatum Bell for this list? Though he may be a bit young for what you have in mind. With all the hype for Dayne or Denver going after another RB, perhaps he can be had a little cheap in some leagues.

I traded for him a couple weeks ago in my dynasty league. Gave up rookie pick 6 for him. I'm desperate for a 2nd RB to pair with Shaun since Priest is close to done and my young guys JJ Arrington and Lee Suggs haven't exactly worked out :X . I figure the 6th pick didn't really have much value for me since the impact rookie RBs will probably be gone by then and I don't really need a QB (have McNabb and Big Ben already) and have enough young WRs (Javon Walker, Lee Evans, Braylon Edwards, Reggie Brown, Charles Rogers, Bernard Berrian, et. al.). In our league Leinart is probably going to go at that pick since the first 4 teams drafting need RBs and the team with the 5th pick has Peyton Manning and is thin at WR. I still have rookie picks 11 and 14 to take a stab at a RB like Addai, Calhoun, Norwood, Harrison, etc. One of those guys will make it there. So I figured it was worth the shot. Even if Tatum splits carries like last year, he has value as a 2nd RB in a desperate situation.

 

[-OZ-]

FWIW, I dumped Ahman basically for Roddy White in a WR friendly league. Probably a sell low, but that seems fair value right now and I didn't need him.

What's Barlow worth? I've never been a fan, but as a Gore owner, it wouldn't be a bad pickup.

 

[cowboy homer]

Great topic and very good posts.

I really think Green will be a good number 3 this year and maybe a decent number 2.

Chester Taylor will be a great number 2 this year.

 

[faulkfan]

Dominick Davis could reasonably make this list as well. With all the hype around Bush going #1, Davis could probably be had cheap and no one knows what his role might be. He's getting too much money not to be a factor in the offense somewhere. The other possibility is that he gets traded, which again could boost his value.

 

[nightshift]

I think Suggs/Green are interesting options in Cleveland. There's not much remaining optimism about either guy around these parts, but neither has really been given a chance to succeed with a competent coaching staff. If Droughns goes down or if either of these guys changes teams then we could see a Thomas Jones type situation (forgotten player emerging).

Ahman Green is another guy to watch. Everyone insists that he's done, but he's plenty young and he really doesn't have any more mileage than guys like Edge and Alexander. Green Bay is a bit of a mess, but he could easily have a breakout year. His situation reminds me of Corey Dillon's a few years back. Everyone wrote him off after his bad final season as a Bengal, but there was still plenty of gas left in the tank.

Suggs probably gets traded soon. Maybe during the draft.Green is not healthy. Yes, he's on the mend but he's a high risk player. If you have to have him, handcuff him to Gado.

Mike Anderson might surprise...

 

[Joseph]

Dominick Davis could reasonably make this list as well. With all the hype around Bush going #1, Davis could probably be had cheap and no one knows what his role might be. He's getting too much money not to be a factor in the offense somewhere. The other possibility is that he gets traded, which again could boost his value.

I'm a Davis owner and I let everyone know that if they wanted to trade for Davis to either wait, or expect to pay as if Bush wasn't an option for Houston. There's no incentive for a davis owner to move him now, when the value is murky, when waiting won't give him a value lower than now, and could have his value rise significantly.

 

[UnknownCoach]

The topic poster only listed older veteran backups only with one exception in Martin. So I wont comment on either older starters or younger backups. Ricky, Suggs, Henry, Staley, Rhodes, and Dayne are the only guys listed I would even think about. Martin is still a starter so he's a no brainer. There are always ageing starters who can be had at value. I wont name any becuase it seems to defeat the true intent of theme. I'll leave Martin out of this.

Holmes and Faulk still have their cult followers who will overvalue them. Sell ratings for both.

Ricky is a definate option. If he's still on drugs though, I dont think he ever plays again. However this is a player with the upside of Shaun Alexander. You better make the owner an offer becuase someone in your league will if you dont. He could win his appeal. He could play in 2007. Those are things worth gambling on when talent isnt the issue. Strong buy rating.

Staley and Dayne have fair shot at being RBBC backs and long shots at being featured backs. I'd only consider if I was in need of depth. As neither is likely to make a good starting fantasy option IMO. Dayne is getting hyped now but wait until after the draft. Then maybe he'll be cheap. Both sell ratings.

Suggs and Henry are the two guys other than Ricky who I'd make a play at. They arent franchise players but they have enough talent to be starters and their trade value is much lower than a simuliar youngster. An older version of Marion Barber, Gore, or Gado for a fraction of the price. Both get a buy rating.

Rhodes is not a long term answer for Indy. They are also either going to add Morris, draft a rookie high, or do both. Rhodes has a heavy sell rating.

Other player who should be listed in this group...

Maurice Morris - Indy is likely to sign him unless they are waiting for the NFL draft first. Then they still might. If you havent made a trade offer yet, you shouldnt be in a dynasty league. Strong buy rating.

TJ Duckett - A productive first rounder playing in the final year of his rookie contract. Hmm! At worst, he's career RBBC. At best, he gets featured in 2007. Definately make an offer for him. Buy rating.

Michael Bennett - See Suggs and Henry. Only he has a new contract and clear starter in front of him. Hold rating.

Onterrio Smith - The forgotten one. No news is good news. He has yet to get in trouble again. He's also still a FA I believe. Here is a Suggs/Henry/Bennett type talent with Ricky Williams like issues. That makes him dirt cheap but he's a guy who has time to get his act together. Hold rating.

William Green - Simuliar to Smith. Only seemingly, he has already gotten his act together. His biggest problem is that he's third on the depth chart. Talk about dirt cheap. Cleveland could move either him or Suggs improving the situation for both. He'll also become a free agent I believe in one more year. Buy rating.

Mewelde Moore - Guy could continue to get RBBC play but I cant see him being featured again. His trade value is still too high for my budget. Once it drops, he's a younger Staley/Dayne situation to consider. Strong sell.

Stephen Davis - Could land an RBBC job. Hold rating.

Bell, Davis, and Taylor are all current starters as far as I'm concerned. So I cant mention them here. At least not until after the NFL draft. Last year's rookies are all too young to discuss here. Fargas, A-train, Kevin Faulk, Pittman, Buckhalter, Goings, and the other names I've seen here are all just wavier material or deep handcuffs IMO.

 

[Spike]

Dominick Davis could reasonably make this list as well.  With all the hype around Bush going #1, Davis could probably be had cheap and no one knows what his role might be.  He's getting too much money not to be a factor in the offense somewhere.  The other possibility is that he gets traded, which again could boost his value.

I'm a Davis owner and I let everyone know that if they wanted to trade for Davis to either wait, or expect to pay as if Bush wasn't an option for Houston. There's no incentive for a davis owner to move him now, when the value is murky, when waiting won't give him a value lower than now, and could have his value rise significantly.

(And I'm not a Davis owner in any league.)

 

[Portis 26]

FWIW, I dumped Ahman basically for Roddy White in a WR friendly league. Probably a sell low, but that seems fair value right now and I didn't need him.

 

[-OZ-]

FWIW, I dumped Ahman basically for Roddy White in a WR friendly league. Probably a sell low, but that seems fair value right now and I didn't need him.

I'd rather not change this into a "rate my team / trade" thread.Suffice it to say that I'm comfortable with the trade, but not real sure what Ahman is going for elsewhere, I had received absolutely no interest from any other owner before this.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

My general rule of thumb is to target solid veterans that have been deposed by a high NFL draft pick.

Rookies usually start slowly and there is some value in having a cheap veteran to be a backup on your team for the first 5-6 weeks. Plus there's the off chance the rookie pulls a Cedric Benson and completely kills any chance he had at being the starter.

 

[H.K.]

Jamal Lewis and Ahman Green seem to be prime candidates, both are coming off of poor seasons and have other RB's on the roster to drive down their value. You won't have to pay a premium to get them and the upside is high if they heal in the off-season.

 

[Cookiemonster]

Post-draft (NFL & startup dynasty)

I found A.Green (6th & Davenport 12th) very late as well as F.Taylor (late 5th & G.Jones late 11th) and this worked out great to get a C.Palmer & C.J. early. It left me thin @ RB, but the value was there to get these guys much later than in previous years. Staley was also a late pickup that could possibly fill in in a pinch, and if anybody remembers two years ago started the season w/ 700 in seven games for Pitt. If FWP should go down, Staley would be gold. I also saw C.Dillon and C.Martin go much too late, but I wasn't impressed w/ what I saw out of Dillon last year.