Dynasty leagues (1 Viewer)

[Captain Spaulding]

I thought with the season nearly over. Who would be some nice "sell high" "buy low" guys to try and move in the offseason to better solidify your future dynasty team.

obviously R. Moss is a buy low guy (unless there are drastic offseason changes), but unfortunately most Moss owners are still holding his value inflated for dynasty leagues because of his mid-career status (not old yet) and #1 WR past performance.

I'm also wondering if Roy Williams is a "sell high" guy. He is being anoted as a new "stud" WR but team situation and bad attitude could hold this guy back perhaps from reaching top 3 WR potential?

Willie Parker might be a "sell high" guy after this season or he could end up being a long-term stud. I just wonder if Cowher leaves after this season, so too does the commit to the run/stop the run Steeler philosophy.

Deangelo Williams...I'm not really sure if he is a buy low or sell high guy. No real track record yet, but will Carolina ever develop a top tiered running game? They haven't since they joined the NFL as a new franchise.

Please add at your liesure.

 

[knobby]

I thought with the season nearly over. Who would be some nice "sell high" "buy low" guys to try and move in the offseason to better solidify your future dynasty team.

obviously R. Moss is a buy low guy (unless there are drastic offseason changes), but unfortunately most Moss owners are still holding his value inflated for dynasty leagues because of his mid-career status (not old yet) and #1 WR past performance.

I'm also wondering if Roy Williams is a "sell high" guy. He is being anoted as a new "stud" WR but team situation and bad attitude could hold this guy back perhaps from reaching top 3 WR potential?

Willie Parker might be a "sell high" guy after this season or he could end up being a long-term stud. I just wonder if Cowher leaves after this season, so too does the commit to the run/stop the run Steeler philosophy.

Deangelo Williams...I'm not really sure if he is a buy low or sell high guy. No real track record yet, but will Carolina ever develop a top tiered running game? They haven't since they joined the NFL as a new franchise.

Please add at your liesure.

20037 Carolina 522 att 2091yds 4.0ypc 130.7ypg

They did have one good year.

Buy low

JP Losman

Kevin Jones

Clinton Portis

Lamont Jordan

Braylon Edwards

Hines Ward

Chris Chambers

Anquan Boldin

Ben Troupe

Sell high

Drew Brees

Jon Kitna - if you can trade him for something

LT2 - depending on what you can get for him. There may never be a higher value for a player in the history of FF

L Betts

Donald Driver - if Favre is done, he's not top 10 next year

 

[-OZ-]

Buy low

JP Losman

Kevin Jones

Clinton Portis

Lamont Jordan

Braylon Edwards

Hines Ward

Chris Chambers

Anquan Boldin

Ben Troupe

Sell high

Drew Brees

Jon Kitna - if you can trade him for something

LT2 - depending on what you can get for him. There may never be a higher value for a player in the history of FF

L Betts

Donald Driver - if Favre is done, he's not top 10 next year

I have every player on your buy low list except Jordan and Boldin. 3 of them on one team. I'll add Vincent Jackson, Jason Campbell, Lendale White, Matt Jones and Cedric Houston. Houston as a flier that the Jets don't bring in another RB, wouldn't pay too much though.

 

[EBF]

Buy Low

LenDale White - Should eventually start somewhere if he stays healthy and motivated.

Marcedes Lewis - Nowhere to go but up.

Sell High

TJ Houshmandzadeh - Solid player, but this was a career year.

Marques Colston - Maybe he's the next TO. Maybe not. If I could trade him for a more established player like Boldin or Evans, then I'd do it.

Frank Gore - A nice story, but what about his knees? Value probably won't go up much. A good time to move him.

 

[Faust]

 

[Captain Spaulding]

Buy Low

LenDale White - Should eventually start somewhere if he stays healthy and motivated.

Marcedes Lewis - Nowhere to go but up.

Sell High

TJ Houshmandzadeh - Solid player, but this was a career year.

Marques Colston - Maybe he's the next TO. Maybe not. If I could trade him for a more established player like Boldin or Evans, then I'd do it.

Frank Gore - A nice story, but what about his knees? Value probably won't go up much. A good time to move him.

My comments on Frank Gore....I realize he has risk associated with his knees, but his TD's can only go up as the SF offense continues to improve over the next few years. In TD heavy leagues (barring health) Gore should be a conisistent top 10 scoring fantasy back if not cracking the top 3 or even potentially challenging for #1 spot. Alot will depend on offensive production by SF and offensive line situation.

 

[baronson]

buy low:

Calhoun

McNabb

Leinert

Lamont

Ronnie Brown

Cadillac

SA

Sell Hi:

Eli (he sucks)

Brees

Javon

Jamal Lewis

Eli (he's terrible)

Chester Taylor (won't get every carry next yr)

Jones-Drew (no way he repeats next yr)

Andre Johnson

Eli (he's horrendous)

 

[fruity pebbles]

buy low:CalhounMcNabbLeinertLamontRonnie BrownCadillacSASell Hi:Eli (he sucks)BreesJavonJamal LewisEli (he's terrible)Chester Taylor (won't get every carry next yr)Jones-Drew (no way he repeats next yr)Andre JohnsonEli (he's horrendous)

Agree with all except one on each list. SA will be 30 before the start of next year so I don't think he's a buy low in a dynasty, especially since most still seem to pin top 5 RB value on him. Javon Walker will only get better as Cutler matures. I'd actually look to trade for him.

 

[fsufan]

Jones-Drew (no way he repeats next yr)

I agreeHe will be overvalued in 2007

 

[fruity pebbles]

Jones-Drew (no way he repeats next yr)

I agreeHe will be overvalued in 2007

I think so too. Everybody really seems to be jumping on board now after the Pats game, but the 74 yard TD run was really a fluke. Good awareness on his part but it's not like he busted a clean run.

 

[PatsWillWin]

Jones-Drew (no way he repeats next yr)

I agreeHe will be overvalued in 2007

I think so too. Everybody really seems to be jumping on board now after the Pats game, but the 74 yard TD run was really a fluke. Good awareness on his part but it's not like he busted a clean run.

As the commentator of the game put it (forget who he was) "Banta-Cain had a Mathias Kiwanuka moment."

 

[fruity pebbles]

Jones-Drew (no way he repeats next yr)

I agreeHe will be overvalued in 2007

I think so too. Everybody really seems to be jumping on board now after the Pats game, but the 74 yard TD run was really a fluke. Good awareness on his part but it's not like he busted a clean run.

As the commentator of the game put it (forget who he was) "Banta-Cain had a Mathias Kiwanuka moment."

Yep just kind of stood there looking at Drew as he got up off the ground and started running again.

 

[EBF]

I still don't think Drew is necessarily a bad pickup in dynasty leagues. Guy is obviously a playmaker.

 

[fruity pebbles]

I still don't think Drew is necessarily a bad pickup in dynasty leagues. Guy is obviously a playmaker.

True but first round top 10 RB value is being thrown around as of late.

 

[EBF]

Another buy low:

Ryan Moats - He probably has almost no trade value right about now after laying an egg this season and falling to third string. He's undersized and probably not a good enough receiver to ever become a Westbrook type, but he's a talented player and if he catches a few breaks and winds up in a good situation then he could produce.

 

[baronson]

buy low:CalhounMcNabbLeinertLamontRonnie BrownCadillacSASell Hi:Eli (he sucks)BreesJavonJamal LewisEli (he's terrible)Chester Taylor (won't get every carry next yr)Jones-Drew (no way he repeats next yr)Andre JohnsonEli (he's horrendous)

Agree with all except one on each list. SA will be 30 before the start of next year so I don't think he's a buy low in a dynasty, especially since most still seem to pin top 5 RB value on him. Javon Walker will only get better as Cutler matures. I'd actually look to trade for him.

fair points. i can see Javon improving, but he's being shopped as a top 10 WR right now, with good reason. but i think we're closer to the ceiling than the floor for Javon.SA will have another stud year or two. but i agree, the long-term outlook isn't great. but he'll rebound to top 5 form next year. he'd be worth it if you can get him on the cheap, if you ask me. with injuries and a lackluster season fresh in peoples minds, it seems like a good possibility.eli still blows.

 

[EBF]

I still don't think Drew is necessarily a bad pickup in dynasty leagues. Guy is obviously a playmaker.

True but first round top 10 RB value is being thrown around as of late.

Yea, that might be a bit silly. I've identified the main flaw in the way we evaluate rookie RBs. It basically boils down to the following:- If an even mildly-heralded rookie RB has a good game, everyone automatically assumes that he's a good player who is destined to continue yielding good games. - If a boring veteran has a good game, everyone still knows that he's a boring veteran. We don't assume that veterans are going to be stars just because they have a big game or two. People got excited when Joseph Addai and Laurence Maroney put up monster games. They put those backs in their dynasty top 15-20. The same thing doesn't usually happen with veterans. No one is raising much fuss about Ron Dayne's hot streak. I'm guessing that no one has him in their dynasty top 15-20 (and he was a much better college player and a higher draft pick than Addai and Maroney). Even Ladell Betts isn't exactly getting showered with love despite the fact that, by all appearances, he's every bit as talented as Maroney and Addai. I think the lesson here is twofold:- Don't get too excited just because your rookie RB has a good game or two. Lots of RBs have a good game or two. It doesn't mean much.- Capitalize on the rookie RB fever by trading your rookie RB once his value blows up. It's tempting to hold onto him and hope that he becomes a cornerstone for you, but he's probably more likely to be the next William Green than the next LaDainian Tomlinson.

 

[Captain Spaulding]

I still don't think Drew is necessarily a bad pickup in dynasty leagues. Guy is obviously a playmaker.

True but first round top 10 RB value is being thrown around as of late.

Yea, that might be a bit silly. I've identified the main flaw in the way we evaluate rookie RBs. It basically boils down to the following:- If an even mildly-heralded rookie RB has a good game, everyone automatically assumes that he's a good player who is destined to continue yielding good games. - If a boring veteran has a good game, everyone still knows that he's a boring veteran. We don't assume that veterans are going to be stars just because they have a big game or two. People got excited when Joseph Addai and Laurence Maroney put up monster games. They put those backs in their dynasty top 15-20. The same thing doesn't usually happen with veterans. No one is raising much fuss about Ron Dayne's hot streak. I'm guessing that no one has him in their dynasty top 15-20 (and he was a much better college player and a higher draft pick than Addai and Maroney). Even Ladell Betts isn't exactly getting showered with love despite the fact that, by all appearances, he's every bit as talented as Maroney and Addai. I think the lesson here is twofold:- Don't get too excited just because your rookie RB has a good game or two. Lots of RBs have a good game or two. It doesn't mean much.- Capitalize on the rookie RB fever by trading your rookie RB once his value blows up. It's tempting to hold onto him and hope that he becomes a cornerstone for you, but he's probably more likely to be the next William Green than the next LaDainian Tomlinson.

I'm sorry but I don't agree with your philosophy of "trade your rookie RB's after they have a blow up game". In dynasty leagues, you really can only build a great team in 3 ways...1) stikining gold in the rookie draft, 2) great waiver pickups and 3)savy trades. Trades is the most difficult because you have to give up something in order to gain and you can actually end up hurting your team if bad luck strikes (assuming folks think its a fair trade). Additionally, in dynasty (if your building for future) your goal is to target players who have future stud potential. So in your philosophy, if I was deep at RB and had a rookie rb like Reggie Bush, Addai, or Jones-Drew I should trade them away for a veteran player who is putting up above average stats like? That is a good philosophy if you are in competition for a current year championship or need 1 missing link for the next season to win it all, but if you are not looking to be a top contender for at least 2+ years this will hurt your chances of producing studs down the road.

 

[EBF]

I still don't think Drew is necessarily a bad pickup in dynasty leagues. Guy is obviously a playmaker.

True but first round top 10 RB value is being thrown around as of late.

Yea, that might be a bit silly. I've identified the main flaw in the way we evaluate rookie RBs. It basically boils down to the following:- If an even mildly-heralded rookie RB has a good game, everyone automatically assumes that he's a good player who is destined to continue yielding good games. - If a boring veteran has a good game, everyone still knows that he's a boring veteran. We don't assume that veterans are going to be stars just because they have a big game or two. People got excited when Joseph Addai and Laurence Maroney put up monster games. They put those backs in their dynasty top 15-20. The same thing doesn't usually happen with veterans. No one is raising much fuss about Ron Dayne's hot streak. I'm guessing that no one has him in their dynasty top 15-20 (and he was a much better college player and a higher draft pick than Addai and Maroney). Even Ladell Betts isn't exactly getting showered with love despite the fact that, by all appearances, he's every bit as talented as Maroney and Addai. I think the lesson here is twofold:- Don't get too excited just because your rookie RB has a good game or two. Lots of RBs have a good game or two. It doesn't mean much.- Capitalize on the rookie RB fever by trading your rookie RB once his value blows up. It's tempting to hold onto him and hope that he becomes a cornerstone for you, but he's probably more likely to be the next William Green than the next LaDainian Tomlinson.

I'm sorry but I don't agree with your philosophy of "trade your rookie RB's after they have a blow up game". In dynasty leagues, you really can only build a great team in 3 ways...1) stikining gold in the rookie draft, 2) great waiver pickups and 3)savy trades. Trades is the most difficult because you have to give up something in order to gain and you can actually end up hurting your team if bad luck strikes (assuming folks think its a fair trade). Additionally, in dynasty (if your building for future) your goal is to target players who have future stud potential. So in your philosophy, if I was deep at RB and had a rookie rb like Reggie Bush, Addai, or Jones-Drew I should trade them away for a veteran player who is putting up above average stats like? That is a good philosophy if you are in competition for a current year championship or need 1 missing link for the next season to win it all, but if you are not looking to be a top contender for at least 2+ years this will hurt your chances of producing studs down the road.

It all depends on your league structure. I would probably trade Addai or Maroney for Lee Evans in a 12 team PPR league. Not the case in a Misfits league (14 teams and no PPR). Anyhow, it all comes down to what you get in return. Obviously you shouldn't ship Maroney out for Kevan Barlow and a can of Pepsi. But if someone is offering you Cadillac Williams and Todd Heap for Maroney, it becomes a much more interesting offer. I understand that you need good players if you want to have a good team. My point is that a few of these guys like Addai, Drew, Maroney, D-Will, and Bush will probably disappoint in the long run. Depending on what kind of offer you can swing, you might have much better odds of success by making a trade.

 

[EBF]

Here's an example, by the way:

I never liked Larry Johnson when he was a draft prospect. I thought he was going to be a bust. Nevertheless, after his disappointing rookie year, I snagged him in the 7th round of an initial dynasty draft because I thought a young first round RB was a good value at that point (even though I didn't much like his prospects). He ended up breaking out later in the second half of that season. Suddenly, people were willing to trade a lot for him.

Because I didn't personally like his chances of ever becoming a consistent star, I traded him for WR Roy Williams (who I thought would be a star) and a swap of draft picks (moved up from the second into the first).

Obviously, it was a bad deal in hindsight, but I had no way of knowing at the time that LJ wouldn't be the next William Green. I had limited information and I made a judgment call to sell at a gain rather than risk him plummeting into mediocrity. It was a bad move, but it was also a good move. I turned my 7th round pick into Roy Williams and a higher rookie pick. Fast forward a couple years and my team was in the playoffs.

Would I be better off with LJ? Sure, but I couldn't have known whether he'd be a complete flop like William Green or Michael Bennett, or a moderate disappointment like Julius Jones or Willis McGahee. He ended up being a huge star. Oh well. I still gained significantly from my initial investment.

On the flipside, I've held on to guys like Cadillac Williams and Julius Jones after buying the "top ten RB" hype. They both decreased in value.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Here's an example, by the way:I never liked Larry Johnson when he was a draft prospect. I thought he was going to be a bust. Nevertheless, after his disappointing rookie year, I snagged him in the 7th round of an initial dynasty draft because I thought a young first round RB was a good value at that point (even though I didn't much like his prospects). He ended up breaking out later in the second half of that season. Suddenly, people were willing to trade a lot for him. Because I didn't personally like his chances of ever becoming a consistent star, I traded him for WR Roy Williams (who I thought would be a star) and a swap of draft picks (moved up from the second into the first). Obviously, it was a bad deal in hindsight, but I had no way of knowing at the time that LJ wouldn't be the next William Green. I had limited information and I made a judgment call to sell at a gain rather than risk him plummeting into mediocrity. It was a bad move, but it was also a good move. I turned my 7th round pick into Roy Williams and a higher rookie pick. Fast forward a couple years and my team was in the playoffs. Would I be better off with LJ? Sure, but I couldn't have known whether he'd be a complete flop like William Green or Michael Bennett, or a moderate disappointment like Julius Jones or Willis McGahee. He ended up being a huge star. Oh well. I still gained significantly from my initial investment. On the flipside, I've held on to guys like Cadillac Williams and Julius Jones after buying the "top ten RB" hype. They both decreased in value.

I think very much like you do. Over and over again I've traded prospects that look good over a few games or even half a season for more proven players. It's worked out well at times (traded Mewelde Moore at his peak) and other times not so well (traded Steven Jackson too soon).

 

[BigJim®]

I still don't think Drew is necessarily a bad pickup in dynasty leagues. Guy is obviously a playmaker.

True but first round top 10 RB value is being thrown around as of late.

I'll respecdtfully disagree on this. I've been starting MJD since mid season out of semi-desparation and I'll gladly do it again next year based on his production, not his hype. Some responses in this thread are effectively writing off a season's worth of production by pooh-poohing one 74 yard TD run [where in fact not all of the defenders gave up]. I mean, we get to still count the other 13 TDs, right? I drafted Cadillac as a top 10 RB in my redraft and I'd have gladly taken the production I got from MJD (19, 11, 17, 12, 9, 7, 12, 11, 17, 10, 29, 19, 29) over Cadillac. Considering much of that production was part time work, it seems fair to value MJD as highly as guys like Ron Brown and Cadi were valued going into this season. Tiki and K.Jones are out of the equation, Edge has huge question marks, and I'm lowering expectations for Cadi and R. Brown. After the first 4-5 RBs next season it becomes somewhat a crapshoot, but MJD has to be considered anywhere after that point. He finished there statistically this year.

 

[2banalias]

How can Javon's value be near his ceiling? I say his value is top 10 WR at least. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see him top 5 next year.