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DYNASTY: Miles Sanders or David Montgomery (1 Viewer)

The deciding factor for me was the HC's use of their backs.

 
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Dezbelief said:
The deciding factor for me was the HC's use their backs.
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This.  Eagles are openly on record as not wanting a single feature back.  Nagy seems down on Cohen and eager for his "Jamaal Charles."

I don't see Miles Sanders as the guy that changes an institutional philosophy.  So Monty for me.

 
Montgomery here.  Liked him better as a prospect.  I play in PPR and like his hands.  Dont like the hands and fumbles of Sanders as much.  Also prefer the Bears O and how I envision them using him in their scheme.

 
Its a relatively easy choice for me.  Sanders.  Better all around skill-set.  Montgomery is more bruiser without burst and that tells me his ceiling isn't a top10 RB.  Sanders has that capability along with his athleticism that dwarfs Montgomery's.  

If you want to bank on more college production go for it and choose Montgomery, I won't blame you.  But the way that Sanders makes things look easy has me convinced he'll do very well.  I don't have that sense from Montgomery.  

 
I prefer Montgomery, I think he's a better runner and went to an offense more suited to use him to his fullest potential. 

I'm not sure either of them project to ever being top-10 RB's, so if I didn't need a RB, I'd be happy to flip them for help at another position, or trade down. 

 
Zyphros said:
Its a relatively easy choice for me.  Sanders.  Better all around skill-set. 
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What skills do you think Sanders has that Montgomery doesn't do as well?

Montgomery is more bruiser without burst and that tells me his ceiling isn't a top10 RB.  Sanders has that capability along with his athleticism that dwarfs Montgomery's.  
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I agree with you that Montgomerys biggest weakness is the lack of burst to turn broken tackles into bigger plays. However I don't really see Sanders burst being better. Sanders is hesitant and indecisive, he passes on opportunities to show that burst and get downfield. I don't think either of them will be a top 12 RB. I am listening to you, I mostly hear you saying that Sanders had a better 40 time. I do not think that means he has better burst than Montgomery has.

I think Montgomery has better receiving skills than Sanders has. I also think he has better power and contact balance than Sanders. He doesn't fumble as much as Sanders has.

I think they are close to the same level of prospect, I just like Montgomery more. I think he is a more skillful player than Sanders is. Sanders has better athleticism.

 
skinfanjon said:
Not picking on Starks, but can anyone explain why I see so many posts that are just a period and no text??  
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In the current version of the board software, if you post in a thread it shows a little star next to the post. 

In the original version, it showed an envelope next to each post with a black dot near it.

So people would type "i'm black dotting this to read later" and eventually it became just a period. 

In one version of the software, the corner of the unread message icon turned white for threads you replied to.  Some people called that sehorning the post because he was a white corner. Some people here still use that term.  

 
I can't freaking decide. I guess I'm taking whichever one is available at 1.04. Will Sanders have what it takes to take over the backfield that includes a proven vet they just brought in? Will Montgomery?

I think there is something to the idea that these vets were insurance policies before the draft, so I can see a path for both of the rookies. Clement is terrible. Adams is clearly an odd man out. Smallwood forget it. Yeah there is a path for Sanders for sure. But Pederson scares me more than Nagy and yet I like Davis better as a vet than Howard. So I'm still torn. 

In one league I hold 1.04 and 1.05 and would like to take them both if I can. 

 
skinfanjon said:
Not picking on Starks, but can anyone explain why I see so many posts that are just a period and no text??  
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Black dot, means I’ll get back to this post.

its the same as: :blackdot:  

Tex

 
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Sanders:

Sanders had the misfortune of getting stuck behind Saquon Barkley for his first two seasons in college but replaced him nicely last year. In 2018, Sanders actually totaled more rushing yards than Barkley gained the year prior, and on only three more carries. Although he wasn’t as productive as Barkley as a receiver, Howie Roseman (executive VP of football operations) said following the selection, “Miles is a guy who can play all three downs.” I’m guessing that played a role in Philadelphia taking Sanders on Day 2 — the highest the Eagles have drafted a running back (by 79 picks) during Roseman’s 10-year tenure.

That’s perhaps the biggest takeaway here, that Sanders has legitimate bell-cow potential in Philadelphia. If so, his potential is exceedingly high, on an offense that ranks top-eight in total yards and points since head coach Doug Pederson joined the team.

Monty:

As outlined here, Montgomery is arguably the most elusive running back we’ve ever charted at the college level. In the PFF College era (since 2014), no other running back has forced more than 100 combined missed tackles in a season. Montgomery has done it twice. Montgomery was one of our most efficient runners, but also excleled as a receiver, ranking behind only James Williams in receptions (58) over the past two seasons, with just one drop over that span. He’s also an accomplished pass-blocker, ranking fourth-best in PFF pass-blocking grade in 2017 (of over 350 qualifying running backs).

This paints the picture of Montgomery as a potential three-down running back for head coach Matt Nagy and the Bears, and I’d argue that’s exactly why they spent so much draft capital to acquire him. In March, the Bears traded away Jordan Howard (who ranks third in rushing yards since entering the league) for only a Round 6 draft pick. Meanwhile, to trade up for Montgomery, the Bears gave up a 2019 Round 3 pick, a 2020 Round 4 pick, and fell 43 spots on Day 3.

Perhaps Nagy has also tired of Tarik Cohen’s fumbling issues (he led all non-quarterbacks in fumbles last year) and yearns for a bell-cow running back who doesn’t tip his play-calling hand when coming onto the field. Nagy said he sees the “comparison to Kareem Hunt” with Montgomery, and perhaps he envisions a similar role. It wasn’t the case last year, but Nagy certainly preferred to favor a bell-cow (rather than committee) approach with the Chiefs. When Nagy was calling plays for the Chiefs in 2017, Hunt averaged 21.3 expected fantasy points per game, as opposed to only 13.5 expected points per game when Reid was calling plays.

Tex

 
The highest draft capital spent on RB by the eagles since Pederson came over had been a 4th. They just used a 2nd for Sanders, giving him the most draft capital used and I think also the most money spent on the position during this eagles tenure. That bodes well for the idea that he could actually be a 3-down back there. Not in his favor is that we haven’t seen this regime use a workhorse. They’ve never spent up to get their guy but the lack of track record there does not inspire confidence.

Montgomery also boasts the highest draft capital spent on a bears RB during Pace’s tenure (obviously Nagy has only been there 1 year but Pace has been there for a while). Also in his favor is that he is the first RB actually picked by this coach so that, plus the capital, would imply that Montgomery is the exactly the type of back Nagy wants.  Not in his favor is the fact that they signed Davis to a two year deal (cap wise they will probably keep him next year) an Cohen is under contract one more year and has been phenomenal. Also Cohen is talented enough to deserve pass catching work so even if he doesn’t take it all, he will take a good portion of it.

Situation alone, Sanders seems most likely to me to get a shot at being a 3 down back. Most NFL teams run some type of committee but Sanders has a lot in his favor in terms of his chance of leading his team in both rushing and receiving, at least through the second half of the season when rookies start to emerge. Montgomery isn’t in a bad situation but his pass catching potential is capped by another real good player who had a great year with this team last year. I personally like Sanders more on talent than Montgomery so maybe I am painting a biased picture in Sanders’ favor but he is the guy I’d go for.

FWIW though, I had the 1.04 in my last rookie superflex and had Sanders and Montgomery available. I took Sanders but I worked hard to try trade back 1 pick to 1.05 because I would’ve been equally happy with either guy

 
I think defaulting to the pass catching back is always the safer play. Both teams have exhibited wanting to have a shared backfield. Montgomery has shown he can catch the ball, Sanders is a bit of an unknown. Both offenses want to do similar things with Philly probably > Chicago. Wouldn’t fault someone to go either way. I would probably go Montgomery’s floor over Sanders ceiling though.

 
Bojang0301 said:
I think defaulting to the pass catching back is always the safer play. Both teams have exhibited wanting to have a shared backfield. Montgomery has shown he can catch the ball, Sanders is a bit of an unknown. Both offenses want to do similar things with Philly probably > Chicago. Wouldn’t fault someone to go either way. I would probably go Montgomery’s floor over Sanders ceiling though.
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Montgomery's floor for us is a RB2-3 for a few years. This is not much better than Sanders' of completely busting out. The main difference to me is their ceilings', which ss why I go with Sanders, who could be a 1st round redraft pick for the next 5 or so seasons. I think Montgomery is solid, but I don't see that kind of upside. Better for an NFL team than for us.

 
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I like Montgomery better, but that’s as much distrust in Pederson’s use of his RBs as it is belief in Monty’s talent.  I think Montgomery’s game translates directly to the NFL, and he’s got a well rounded game that is only missing deep speed.  So you give up a couple of 60 yd TDs a year but get a guy who ought to keep his team in great down and distance situations.  I love compilers on my FF team.

With Sanders I’m not quite sure he’s got enough game to be dominant or keep other RBs from threatening his workload - especially given from what we have seen out of Pederson’s philosophy.  That said, would it surprise me to see Sanders be better?  No, but I don’t expect it.

.

 
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Montgomery is a good runner, but his lack of speed and burst may be an issue in the NFL. Slow 40 time, low YPC, and very few long runs. It all points to the same conclusion.

I like his running style, but without explosiveness he's going to be wholly dependent on volume.

Sanders was picked higher, has similar agility, and is a more explosive athlete. He is not a can't-miss guy to me, but I like his chances of being solid.

All in all, I might favor Montgomery in a redraft, but in the long run his lack of north-south explosiveness would seem like a limit on his ceiling.

 
Montgomery is a better runningback and in a better situation.  Nagy’s offense is more proven to produce elite RB numbers.

 
I don’t know who will be better but I will say this, whomever picks Sanders and JJAW in dynasty will be loving life if they can wait a year.

 
Jello_Biafra said:
Is Montgomery not exciting for you or is it his situation? You seemed pretty high on him before the draft.
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I was back and forth about him prior to the draft. I didn't like that he didn't seem to do much once he got to the second level of the defense. His YPC is a bit low. I like his overall skill set; I think he is a better catcher than Sanders, but Sanders didn't get to show it much. I figured Chicago would have been perfect, but it concerns me that they went and got Davis. I always felt like Nagy wanted "his guy," which proved true when he traded Howard, but then he got Davis and then Montgomery. Does he envision some crazy 3 headed attack? If both of these guys are in the same situation, then I'd take Sanders as a guy who I think can do more with less.

If Montgomery is going to be the workhorse that they are swooning about now, then yeah I think Montgomery can be pretty dangerous. That would mean Chicago getting rid of Cohen and Davis being a backup only. I'm not sure I believe that'll happen

 
Dr. Dan said:
I was back and forth about him prior to the draft. I didn't like that he didn't seem to do much once he got to the second level of the defense. His YPC is a bit low. I like his overall skill set; I think he is a better catcher than Sanders, but Sanders didn't get to show it much. I figured Chicago would have been perfect, but it concerns me that they went and got Davis. I always felt like Nagy wanted "his guy," which proved true when he traded Howard, but then he got Davis and then Montgomery. Does he envision some crazy 3 headed attack? If both of these guys are in the same situation, then I'd take Sanders as a guy who I think can do more with less.

If Montgomery is going to be the workhorse that they are swooning about now, then yeah I think Montgomery can be pretty dangerous. That would mean Chicago getting rid of Cohen and Davis being a backup only. I'm not sure I believe that'll happen
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Davis is this year's Carlos Hyde. They signed Davis before they realized they could land a stud in the draft. You're overthinking this, Dan.

 
skinfanjon said:
Not picking on Starks, but can anyone explain why I see so many posts that are just a period and no text??  
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It's a way for a person to mark a conversation that they want to follow and maybe comment in later when they have time. That way when looking through the Shark Pool a person can look for the starred conversations.

 
Biabreakable said:
What skills do you think Sanders has that Montgomery doesn't do as well?

I agree with you that Montgomerys biggest weakness is the lack of burst to turn broken tackles into bigger plays. However I don't really see Sanders burst being better. Sanders is hesitant and indecisive, he passes on opportunities to show that burst and get downfield. I don't think either of them will be a top 12 RB. I am listening to you, I mostly hear you saying that Sanders had a better 40 time. I do not think that means he has better burst than Montgomery has.

I think Montgomery has better receiving skills than Sanders has. I also think he has better power and contact balance than Sanders. He doesn't fumble as much as Sanders has.

I think they are close to the same level of prospect, I just like Montgomery more. I think he is a more skillful player than Sanders is. Sanders has better athleticism.
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I think you're confusing his indecision with his lack of burst.  I'll admit Sanders' vision might not be top notch, but I definitely see burst when he see's it happening.  I think he'll learn that a bit more when he gets more carries though since he was buried behind Barkley he didn't get much of a chance to improve that.  Maybe it's just me but vision seems to be more of a learned thing from experience than a "natural" ability.  It takes some smarts to know the blocking formations and scheme but I think that'll come more in time.  I never thought he was poor in that area though.

I would disagree that Sanders is a worse pass catcher as well.  Montgomery is definitely good at it, but I think Miles is better.  More natural with his hands and more explosive leading to bigger plays.  That isn't reflected in the stats though which I think paint a rather poor job at showing what Miles Sanders can actually do.  I'll concede to the power and contact balance though.  Part of that might be how Montgomery has ~11 pounds on Sanders based on combine weight, but the dude just doesn't go down.  It's the best part of his game. 

Trace McSorley threatens nobody as a passer and he tucked and ran the ball A LOT so teams that weren't even playing the run for Sanders, ended up playing the run for McSorley and when he did hand it off, Sanders was stuck in a no win "run play".  This happened over and over again and it was infuriating to watch when I was evaluating Sanders.  

I just don't see special when I watch Montgomery, I see glimpses of special in Sanders and I think more experience with meaningful snaps (not being buried or QB's hurting him) is going to help him grow.  Where Montgomery has 3 year starter on his resume.  

 
Zyphros said:
I think you're confusing his indecision with his lack of burst.  I'll admit Sanders' vision might not be top notch, but I definitely see burst when he see's it happening.
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Miles Sanders vs Saquon Barkley

Even admitting Miles gets a better jump and uses better technique, the burst is verifiable by beating Saquan to the 5 and the 10.  Sanders lacks the same deep speed though, earning a solid 40 in the first 10 yards. I think Bia is the only one questioning his acceleration.

 
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This is an interesting one. 2.21 vs. 3.09, so a somewhat notable but not very big difference in draft capital.

Everyone makes a fuss about breakaway speed, but I'll take vision and elusiveness over speed any day. Arian Foster is a great example of that. He was a borderline slug but he had great vision and soft hands. That served him well until injuries cut his career short (torn achilles - game over). FWIW, Arian Foster averaged 4.6 ypc in college and 4.5 ypc in Houston (I'm ignoring his year in Miami).

As others have said, Sanders' athleticism makes him appear to be the boom-bust guy. That may be true, but in the right system Montgomery could be a top 10 RB. I'm not a Trubisky fan, but that's a good OL and defense. If Montgomery can top Howard's 250 carries, stay on the field for some third downs, and use that vision and elusiveness to score in the red zone, he could be top 10 as a rookie. For reference, Mixon ranked RB9 on a ppg basis last year with a 16 game pace of 271 carries and 63 targets. I don't predict top 10, but from a ppg basis, he could easily be close.

Last year, Chicago ranked 6th in RB rushes with 369 and Philly ranked 15th with 349. Both teams has 12 RB rushing TDs. Chicago ranked 10th in RB targets with 128 targets while Philly ranked 20th with 103 targets. While Cohen is a formidable receiver, he was a holdover from before Nagy arrived and does not offer the same pass blocking ability that Montgomery does. Sanders has Jordan Howard to contend with for rushes and Clement/Sproles for targets. 

Personally, I prefer Montgomery both short and long term, but the long term is very close. 

 
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Bazinga! said:
I haven’t done the work, but I will.   Maybe someone already has.

How many RBs over the last 10 yrs have put up at least one top 12 ppr season and or how many of the top 20 last year averaged less than 4.8 ypc in their college career?
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Its not exactly the answer to your question, but the following RB's had under 5 yards per carry in college in the last 10 years:

Philip Lindsay, Kerryon Johnson, Doug Martin, DeMarco Murray, Stevan Ridley, Dion Lewis, and LeSean McCoy. .

Those seem like enough exceptions to not just assume Montgomery won't be good. In fact, of that group, based on college production and draft position, Montgomery profiles closest to Murray, they even played in the same conference. Hell, they even have the same initials.

Side note, how bad was that Pittsburgh o-line, as Lewis was their starter after McCoy. 

 
Zyphros said:
I think you're confusing his indecision with his lack of burst. 
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That's possible. The combine metrics tell me he should have good short area quickness, but I dont see that quickness on the field.

Multiple times while watching him I would see the crease opening up for him but he doesn't hit it. Instead he waits behind his blockers and tries to work it to the sideline.

To me that is being indecisive, but maybe he doesn't have the burst to execute what I am seeing and that's why he runs how he does.

I do want to say patience is normally a good trait for a RB to have. It's frustrating to me watching him though. He left a lot of yards on the field because of that.

I'll admit Sanders' vision might not be top notch, but I definitely see burst when he see's it happening.  I think he'll learn that a bit more when he gets more carries though since he was buried behind Barkley he didn't get much of a chance to improve that.  Maybe it's just me but vision seems to be more of a learned thing from experience than a "natural" ability.  It takes some smarts to know the blocking formations and scheme but I think that'll come more in time.  I never thought he was poor in that area though.
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I dont think he has poor vision (maybe I'm wrong about that) I just think he is indecisive and too often does not press an advantage when it's there. When I first started talking about this I said I wonder if he believes in his burst or not? Because he misses opportunities that require it.

I would disagree that Sanders is a worse pass catcher as well.  Montgomery is definitely good at it, but I think Miles is better. 
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Based on what?

I dont buy the excuse that he didn't get opportunity because of the coaching. They had no issue with throwing it to Barkley more.

His measured performance as a receiver is below average while Montgomery is above average.

Watching them Sanders doesn't look as natural or comfortable catching the ball as Montgomery does imo.

The stats back that up as well.

More natural with his hands and more explosive leading to bigger plays.  That isn't reflected in the stats though which I think paint a rather poor job at showing what Miles Sanders can actually do.  I'll concede to the power and contact balance though.  Part of that might be how Montgomery has ~11 pounds on Sanders based on combine weight, but the dude just doesn't go down.  It's the best part of his game. 
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Sanders power may be related to the indecisiveness I was talking about. He doesn't like to mix it up or try to run over a guy. I think he could be better at that.

Looking at stats I saw Montgomery had poor yards running inside. I forget the source though. In one of these threads here and Sanders had good yards after contact according pff. 

So I think you could look at those things and conclude Sanders had better power.

Watching them I see Montgomery running with more power than Sanders regardless of what numbers might say.

Trace McSorley threatens nobody as a passer and he tucked and ran the ball A LOT so teams that weren't even playing the run for Sanders, ended up playing the run for McSorley and when he did hand it off, Sanders was stuck in a no win "run play".  This happened over and over again and it was infuriating to watch when I was evaluating Sanders.  

I just don't see special when I watch Montgomery, I see glimpses of special in Sanders and I think more experience with meaningful snaps (not being buried or QB's hurting him) is going to help him grow.  Where Montgomery has 3 year starter on his resume.  
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As far as the coaching and the QB. Barkley struggled in their offense at times as well.

It's not like these other RB are getting better support from their coaching and QB play than Sanders.

 
travdogg said:
Its not exactly the answer to your question, but the following RB's had under 5 yards per carry in college in the last 10 years:

Philip Lindsay, Kerryon Johnson, Doug Martin, DeMarco Murray, Stevan Ridley, Dion Lewis, and LeSean McCoy. .

Those seem like enough exceptions to not just assume Montgomery won't be good. In fact, of that group, based on college production and draft position, Montgomery profiles closest to Murray, they even played in the same conference. Hell, they even have the same initials.

Side note, how bad was that Pittsburgh o-line, as Lewis was their starter after McCoy. 
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40 times:

Philip Lindsay - 4.39 (pro day)

DeMarco Murray - 4.41

LeSean McCoy - 4.50 (pro day)

Kerryon Johnson - 4.54 (pro day)

Doug Martin - 4.55

Dion Lewis - 4.57

David Montgomery - 4.63

Stevan Ridley - 4.66

There is no getting around the fact that  Montgomery lacks burst and a second gear. His YPC, 40 time, and low number of long runs in college all point to the same conclusion. On the other hand, he is a very bulky back at 5'10" 222, so he doesn't necessarily NEED as much speed as people like McCoy and Murray who aren't built to run hard. Someone like Arian Foster had a nice career with pedestrian speed because he was nimble, instinctive, and elusive in space.

I actually really like Montgomery's running style. I tend to like compact and shifty backs. However, I view him as being a combination of Joe Mixon and David Cobb. He is the same style of back with his elite agility and low center of gravity, but he lacks any semblance of the explosiveness that Mixon has and is a bit of a one gear player like Cobb.

If his career trajectory falls in the middle then he may end up being something like a Shonn Greene with better pass game skills: a player who can handle a heavy workload, but requires a lot of volume to achieve FF relevance since his game lacks chunk plays. I liked Greene a lot coming out of Iowa and he's similar to Montgomery in some respects. Not as elusive in a phone booth, but more agile than expected and compactly built with sub-par speed (4.65 at the combine).

I already talked about Sanders a bit, but he's interesting because he's not quite a burner and not quite a power back, falling more in the power-speed tweener dead zone like Bishop Sankey and Donald Brown in terms of physique and metrics. However, I like his highlights a lot more than either player. He is certainly faster than Montgomery and is a similarly bouncy player with good natural agility and cutting skills. A good comparison for him might be Cadillac Williams, who might have been a good player if not for his injury issues. Systems change, but when you think about the great backs that Philly has had like Westbrook and McCoy, there is definitely a similarity in terms of being a modestly sized back with elite plant-and-cut ability.

 
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EBF you are reminding me of how people were pretty optimistic about David Cobb. I never saw why. He is the definition of JAG to me. Some good pad level and power maybe. Not enough to be a starter in the NFL imo. Just seems odd to use him as a comparison for anyone from my perspective, but I recognize some people liked him.

He isn't like Snonn Green at all. He can catch the ball. He is much more elusive than that, maybe a bit less powerful. They are completely different style of RB. Not even sure why you bring him up.

I thought Bishop Sankey would be a good RB and he was drafted higher than Sanders was. I can somewhat see the comparison, although I agree Sanders is better than him. I don't see Caddy Williams in Sanders at all. Williams to me was similar Terrell Davis or Curtis Marin. Very well put together, ran excellent between the tackles. Sanders is always looking to bounce plays outside.

 
Biabreakable said:
EBF you are reminding me of how people were pretty optimistic about David Cobb. I never saw why. He is the definition of JAG to me. Some good pad level and power maybe. Not enough to be a starter in the NFL imo. Just seems odd to use him as a comparison for anyone from my perspective, but I recognize some people liked him.

He isn't like Snonn Green at all. He can catch the ball. He is much more elusive than that, maybe a bit less powerful. They are completely different style of RB. Not even sure why you bring him up.

I thought Bishop Sankey would be a good RB and he was drafted higher than Sanders was. I can somewhat see the comparison, although I agree Sanders is better than him. I don't see Caddy Williams in Sanders at all. Williams to me was similar Terrell Davis or Curtis Marin. Very well put together, ran excellent between the tackles. Sanders is always looking to bounce plays outside.
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Cobb and Montgomery had similar builds, a lack of speed, and a similarly futile long run % in college. Both are very elusive, but neither has much juice. Montgomery ran .10 faster in the 40 and that's probably why he was a 3rd round pick while Cobb was a 5th round pick. They have similar body types, stats, and styles. Like Montgomery, Cobb was  compiler in college whose game was built around volume rather than chunk plays.

As for the Greene/Montgomery comparison...

Shonn Greene - 5'10.5" - 227 pounds - 4.65s 40 - 10'1" broad jump - 37" vertical - 4.40s 20 yard shuttle - 7.12s three cone - 65th overall pick in 2009

David Montgomery - 5'10.1" - 222 pounds - 4.63s - 10'1" broad jump - 28.5" vertical - 4.23s 20 yard shuttle - 7.12s three cone - 73rd overall pick in 2019

Nearly identical draft slot. Nearly identical physical dimensions and metrics. Both are compact backs with good balance and below average speed.

To be fair, just because they are the same on paper doesn't mean they play the exact same. IMO Montgomery is a looser runner with superior quickness and balance. Montgomery is also a better receiver. He's better in space, with a lot more potential to accumulate catches in PPR. Greene probably had a bit more functional straight-line burst. He actually had a much higher YPC than Montgomery in college. In terms of play style, I still think Montgomery is Slow Mixon. On paper though, there are A LOT of similarities with Greene. It's not a comparison I just pulled out of a hat.

People always fall in love with each incoming class and tend to overestimate the talent level of incoming rookies relative to those who have come and gone in the past. Greene was never very impressive in the NFL, but he scraped his way to two 1000+ yard rushing seasons on a modest YPC and that seems like a reasonable expectation for Montgomery, with more catches added into the mix. 

As for Sanders, he is a few cheesburgers away from being the exact same height/weight as Cadillac Williams, has a similar run style dependent on cuts and agility, and even wears the same #. He doesn't seek contact as often and that's probably a good thing for his longevity potential. Westbrook and McCoy did very well in Philly as backs who won with cuts and footwork in space rather than with bulldozer power.

 
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I see what you are saying as far as their measurables. If you are just talking about that there are likely 1000 or so similar profiles one could find.

I never evaluated Shonn Greene as a college prospect and only saw him a couple times at the NFL level. Never had him on a fantasy team. So I am pretty ignorant when it comes to him.

David Cobb was a Gopher and not really that special even for a Gopher in my view, so no I didn't spend a lot of time thinking he might be good. Of course I thought similarly of Marion Barber who did grit out some good games.  Cobb does hold the single season rushing record for the Gophers in 2014. He is only 7th in career rushing yards for them though. Maroney was likely the best prospect of them all and was drafted higher than any of them, but injuries.

Looking at Greenes college stats. He only had 69 carries before his junior season where he had 307 for 1850 yards. Thats excellent. He only had 8 receptions however. This does not seem similar to Montgomery to me. Greenes yards per reception is below average but still higher than Sanders.

I think you make an excellent point about people over valuing the rookies at this time. I am likely guilty of that as well. The rose is in bloom right now. We haven't seen these players fail at the NFL level yet, and over half of them will.

Maybe both of these guys will disappoint at the NFL level, or maybe they will both be good. If I were told that one of them will bust and one will be ok I would bet the bust is Sanders. He has more flaws in his game than Montgomery has. I also think he has stiffer competition from Jordan Howard  than Montgomery has from Davis and Cohen. 

I do think the Eagles have a better offensive line than the Bears do, and if Wentz is healthy perhaps better QB play as well. So I do count that in Sanders favor.

As always the process is a death by a thousand cuts. I still think they are very close to the same talent level. Just little things I like about Montgomery more.

 
Bazinga! said:
I haven’t done the work, but I will.   Maybe someone already has.

How many RBs over the last 10 yrs have put up at least one top 12 ppr season and or how many of the top 20 last year averaged less than 4.8 ypc in their college career?
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How many other RBs were getting hit on average less than 1 yard from the LoS?  Sure, Montgomery has a 4.4 ypc, but with that goes a 3.5 YAC.  That means that while guys like Jacobs, Henderson, and Sanders were at the second level before someone was tackling them that Montgomery was still fighting off the D line and then dealing with the LBs.  If any person is going to look at stats as their basis for assessment then a bit of context ought to go with it.

 
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Bazinga! said:
Wow, jump to conclusions much?  I just asked a question.  I never look at just stats.  I always put things like just stats into perspective because context does matter.  Maybe you ought to make sure you have context before you rush to judgement
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Easy there.  I was using your post as a springboard for some discussion, not as an attack on you.  This is a stat that several people have latched onto with Montgomery, and I just happened to use your response to extend the conversation.  Relax.

.

 
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Bazinga! said:
"Maybe you ought to make sure you have context before you rush to judgement"

Maybe I just didn't understand what these words meant.
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That was intended as a collective “you”.   I’ll make sure that I do my best not to use any of your posts in the future.  My apologies.  I also modified the initial post to try to be much more ambiguous.

 
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Montgomery and not close.

Sanders is one of the most overdrafted rookies.   Terrible landing spot.

 
so can someone tell me which guy I'm supposed to take in my drafts? crap I seriously go back and forth every day, not kidding  :wall:

 
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