EBF
Footballguy
I'm not going to bother to do a full list of rankings this year. My list wouldn't be all that different from any of the other dozens that you can find online. However, I do think it's worthwhile to offer an opinion on some rookies who might be overrated/underrated. On with the list.
OVERRATED
Leon Washington, RB, NYJ - Every year sees a couple mediocre RBs jumping up into the top 20 selections in rookie drafts. Last year it was Alvin Pearman and Brandon Jacobs. This year, Washington is one of those guys. He's a moderately-talented third-down back with unimpressive combine numbers and mediocre college production. The odds of him ever keeping a starting job are very slim. He should not be taken over the first day WRs, TEs, or QBs.
DeAngelo Williams, RB, CAR - This is just a personal opinion. Williams has a nice draft pedigree, was a star in college, stood out at the Senior Bowl, and did well in workouts. Nevertheless, I think he's a reach ahead of White, Maroney, or Bush and I probably wouldn't take him before Leinart, Young, or Davis. He lacks power, plays small, and may not have the necessary talent to beat out DeShaun Foster. For all of Foster's injury woes, he's been a pretty solid player in the NFL when healthy. This could definitely be another Benson/Jones situation, except Williams isn't even an early first round talent.
Sinorice Moss, WR, NYG - He's fast and his last name is Moss, but I think he's a marginal prospect with limited upside for the NFL. Short receivers have had some success lately, but Moss is under 5'8". Given his lack of production in college and his lack of ideal size, I think it's unlikely that he'll ever be more than a solid number two or three WR in the NFL.
Brandon Marshall, WR, DEN - Marshall has nice size and hands, but he's slow and he lacks explosiveness. At best, I see him as an Ernest Wilford type. At worst, he'll be a nearly-invisible Clarence Moore type.
Joseph Addai, RB, IND - Addai should have an opportunity to compete for a starting job right out of the gate, but I think he's a mediocre prospect whose workout numbers inflated his value. He wasn't very productive in college and he appears to lack ideal instincts. He has a chance to eventually become a decent player, but I wouldn't take him ahead of guys like Davis, Leinart, Young, and White. I might even take Holmes and Jackson before him.
Charlie Whitehurst, QB, San Diego - Whitehurst is a classic example of a guy who looks like Tarzan, but plays like Jane. I've heard a lot of people try to justify his status as a first day draft pick. I wonder where those people were when Charlie was busy chucking INTs at Clemson. He threw 46 INTs in his career against 49 TDs. That's horrible. This guy might be a great athlete, but he simply makes far too many mistakes to ever be counted on.
UNDERRATED
LenDale White, RB, Tennessee - The more I think about it, the more convinced I become that White will lead all rookies in rushing yards and TDs next season. He lacks ideal burst, but he's a powerful back with quick feet and exceptional instincts. Jeff Fisher has shown that he's not afraid to play a rookie in critical situations (see: Chris Brown playing over Eddie George in the 2003 playoffs). White should be given every opportunity to win the starting job and has a real chance to make an immediate impact. I think he's the third best RB from this class for long-term purposes (behind Bush and Maroney).
Willie Reid, WR, Pittsburgh - Reid's most important contributions as a rookie will likely be in the kicking game, but I'd advise people to keep an eye on him. He started to show great promise as a WR down the stretch last season, culminating in player of the game honors in the ACC Championship. While he's certainly not a lock for success, he reminds me a bit of Steve Smith and Laveranues Coles when they were draft prospects. He lacks great size, but has nice instincts, speed, and athletic ability. He was a first day draft pick and is a nice gamble at his current price.
Marcedes Lewis, TE, Jacksonville - Lewis is one of the safest picks you can make in round two of 12 team rookie drafts. Vernon Davis is getting all of the hype, but Lewis had significantly better numbers last season, including 10 TD catches in 13 games. He's a better red zone target than Davis and although he lacks ideal speed and quickness, he should eventually become a reliable receiving TE. He reminds me a bit of Todd Heap and he's a good bet to increase in value over the next two or three years.
Derek Hagan, WR, Miami - I have Hagan rated as the third best WR in this class. He has good size and adequate speed, and he knows how to create separation and make plays. He's never going to be a dominant superstar like Moss or Owens, but he's one of the few WRs in this class with #1 ability. He reminds me a lot of Muhsin Muhammad and I think he offers similar potential. His hands are a concern, but NFL.com says he caught 94% of catchable balls as a senior.
Brian Calhoun, RB, Detroit - I think Kevin Jones is a better back than Calhoun, but I think Calhoun might be a better talent than Maurice Drew, Jerious Norwood, and Joseph Addai. He offers good all-around skills. There's a chance that he'll never be more than a Kevin Faulk type in the NFL, but I think the risk is worth it at his current ADP.
Dominique Byrd, TE, St. Louis - Byrd is quite simply a football player. He won't wow you with his speed or quickness, but he makes the tough catches and consistently picks up extra yards after the catch. He will never be a superstar and I'd be careful not to draft him too high in your leagues, but I think he's eventually going to develop into a quality backup FF TE. He reminds me of Jermaine Wiggins.
Quality Sleepers: Brad Smith, Michael Robinson, Reggie McNeal, Wali Lundy
OVERRATED
Leon Washington, RB, NYJ - Every year sees a couple mediocre RBs jumping up into the top 20 selections in rookie drafts. Last year it was Alvin Pearman and Brandon Jacobs. This year, Washington is one of those guys. He's a moderately-talented third-down back with unimpressive combine numbers and mediocre college production. The odds of him ever keeping a starting job are very slim. He should not be taken over the first day WRs, TEs, or QBs.
DeAngelo Williams, RB, CAR - This is just a personal opinion. Williams has a nice draft pedigree, was a star in college, stood out at the Senior Bowl, and did well in workouts. Nevertheless, I think he's a reach ahead of White, Maroney, or Bush and I probably wouldn't take him before Leinart, Young, or Davis. He lacks power, plays small, and may not have the necessary talent to beat out DeShaun Foster. For all of Foster's injury woes, he's been a pretty solid player in the NFL when healthy. This could definitely be another Benson/Jones situation, except Williams isn't even an early first round talent.
Sinorice Moss, WR, NYG - He's fast and his last name is Moss, but I think he's a marginal prospect with limited upside for the NFL. Short receivers have had some success lately, but Moss is under 5'8". Given his lack of production in college and his lack of ideal size, I think it's unlikely that he'll ever be more than a solid number two or three WR in the NFL.
Brandon Marshall, WR, DEN - Marshall has nice size and hands, but he's slow and he lacks explosiveness. At best, I see him as an Ernest Wilford type. At worst, he'll be a nearly-invisible Clarence Moore type.
Joseph Addai, RB, IND - Addai should have an opportunity to compete for a starting job right out of the gate, but I think he's a mediocre prospect whose workout numbers inflated his value. He wasn't very productive in college and he appears to lack ideal instincts. He has a chance to eventually become a decent player, but I wouldn't take him ahead of guys like Davis, Leinart, Young, and White. I might even take Holmes and Jackson before him.
Charlie Whitehurst, QB, San Diego - Whitehurst is a classic example of a guy who looks like Tarzan, but plays like Jane. I've heard a lot of people try to justify his status as a first day draft pick. I wonder where those people were when Charlie was busy chucking INTs at Clemson. He threw 46 INTs in his career against 49 TDs. That's horrible. This guy might be a great athlete, but he simply makes far too many mistakes to ever be counted on.
UNDERRATED
LenDale White, RB, Tennessee - The more I think about it, the more convinced I become that White will lead all rookies in rushing yards and TDs next season. He lacks ideal burst, but he's a powerful back with quick feet and exceptional instincts. Jeff Fisher has shown that he's not afraid to play a rookie in critical situations (see: Chris Brown playing over Eddie George in the 2003 playoffs). White should be given every opportunity to win the starting job and has a real chance to make an immediate impact. I think he's the third best RB from this class for long-term purposes (behind Bush and Maroney).
Willie Reid, WR, Pittsburgh - Reid's most important contributions as a rookie will likely be in the kicking game, but I'd advise people to keep an eye on him. He started to show great promise as a WR down the stretch last season, culminating in player of the game honors in the ACC Championship. While he's certainly not a lock for success, he reminds me a bit of Steve Smith and Laveranues Coles when they were draft prospects. He lacks great size, but has nice instincts, speed, and athletic ability. He was a first day draft pick and is a nice gamble at his current price.
Marcedes Lewis, TE, Jacksonville - Lewis is one of the safest picks you can make in round two of 12 team rookie drafts. Vernon Davis is getting all of the hype, but Lewis had significantly better numbers last season, including 10 TD catches in 13 games. He's a better red zone target than Davis and although he lacks ideal speed and quickness, he should eventually become a reliable receiving TE. He reminds me a bit of Todd Heap and he's a good bet to increase in value over the next two or three years.
Derek Hagan, WR, Miami - I have Hagan rated as the third best WR in this class. He has good size and adequate speed, and he knows how to create separation and make plays. He's never going to be a dominant superstar like Moss or Owens, but he's one of the few WRs in this class with #1 ability. He reminds me a lot of Muhsin Muhammad and I think he offers similar potential. His hands are a concern, but NFL.com says he caught 94% of catchable balls as a senior.
Brian Calhoun, RB, Detroit - I think Kevin Jones is a better back than Calhoun, but I think Calhoun might be a better talent than Maurice Drew, Jerious Norwood, and Joseph Addai. He offers good all-around skills. There's a chance that he'll never be more than a Kevin Faulk type in the NFL, but I think the risk is worth it at his current ADP.
Dominique Byrd, TE, St. Louis - Byrd is quite simply a football player. He won't wow you with his speed or quickness, but he makes the tough catches and consistently picks up extra yards after the catch. He will never be a superstar and I'd be careful not to draft him too high in your leagues, but I think he's eventually going to develop into a quality backup FF TE. He reminds me of Jermaine Wiggins.
Quality Sleepers: Brad Smith, Michael Robinson, Reggie McNeal, Wali Lundy
