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Dynasty: Pre-Deadline Buy Low Targets (1 Viewer)

Concept Coop

Footballguy
Buy low targets? Let's hear them.

To get the obvious out of the way:

Injury discounts: Julio, Martin, Cobb, Maclin, etc.

Slow-starting rookies: Wheaton, Michael, Eifert, Hunter, Kelce, Ball, etc.

Mike Wallace: I've adjusted my expectations for Wallace multiple times over the last couple years, and no longer see WR1 potential. However, I do see potential for a rebound. I'm going to treat Wallace as I should have treated DeSean Jackson last year - with staff changes likely. In the right offense - as we've seen - Wallace can be a high end WR2. Also, Miami ownership has proven willing to move on from high profile WRs that don't fit. Even if the offense doesn't change next year, another season like this and moving on makes sense for both parties.

Rueben Randle: This one is a bit tricky, as Randle is currently producing at a solid rate. But I don't think the market is fully acknowledging his potential. Or high floor, for that matter. Nicks is likely gone and Randle will be - at least - a dynasty WR2 when that happens. I see 80/1000/10 as reasonable, starting next season. He turns 23 in May.

Collin Kaepernick: Everything that made Collin a dynasty darling coming into the season, still applies. The potential is there, has been flashed, and is enough for me to invest at his newly discounted rate. I expect the weapons to be re-stocked next season, if only due to health. I see promise in his running usage, as he's getting nearly 6 carries a game. The long runs will come, as they did last year.

Kyle Rudolph: He falls under the injury discount category now, but I like him as a buy outside of that, too. He was clearly overrated coming into the year, due to a potentially fluky TD total. But he is a physical talent still, with plenty of potential. Assuming the market has soured on him, to the degree that I expect, I'll be buying.

Robert Turbin: He's been completely written off after the teams addition of Michael, and I don't agree with that conclusion. He beat Michael out in camp, and is very solid in the areas that are keeping Michael off the field; pass protection, especially. He's looked like a solid NFL talent and, while I do see Michael as threat, I think that threat is being measured disproportionately against him. Lynch is turning 28 next season, takes a beating, and Turbin is one injury a way from top 15 numbers, thanks to an ideal situation.

A few guys I am selling:

Demarco Murray: He hasn't looked the same since his rookie season, and clearly doesn't have the game-breaking speed that he once did. Rumor is - the Cowboys don't view Murray as the answer anymore, and are likely to replace him, potentially with an early draft pick.

Coby Fleener: I bought into the off-season hype, and it turned out to be fluff. They don't use him as they hinted, and he hasn't looked nearly as good as they raved. He's putting up solid enough numbers and is getting some redzone targets; I am hoping that is enough to command what I paid for him.

Lamar Miller: I'm getting what I can. A late first would be a pleasant surprise. Hopefully there's a guy in each league who views that as buying low.

 
I'll say it... Trent Richardson. At the current prices, I'd be buying if I didn't already own him. Now the fact that I own him may lead some of you to believe my view of the situation is biased... maybe it is. But I think we've seen this happen before with a few players. Matt Forte had a terrible year when his O-line collapsed, the OC was terrible, situation imploded, and his performance really suffered. Marshawn Lynch equally bottomed out in Buffalo, and wasn't great initially in Seattle either.

The great thing about buying a guy like Trent now is that you're not only getting the discount for such poor performance lately and the perception that he's just not that special, but you're also buying a second window to sell. Many guys experienced this last year with Ingram - pre-season buzz, a few strong carries, offseason fluff about him being in better shape, slimmed down, quicker, etc. Point being... buy at the discount now. If Trent shows his enormous potential down the stretch, you're great. If not, and you don't believe, you'll still have a window to sell in the future.

 
If you still believe in Trent Richardson but it's still hard to get him. Owners who drafted him were so high on him two years ago that they are still in shock and don't want to let go.

 
Forgot to mention Stills and Toon, whom I'll be targeting - in that order - for their potential in the Saints offense.

 
If you still believe in Trent Richardson but it's still hard to get him. Owners who drafted him were so high on him two years ago that they are still in shock and don't want to let go.
This is so true. If you look at things unbiased, you probably can't script a worse performance from this guy this year and STILL, if you ask a person to move them, they act like he is the same guy all those people said would destroy the league this year. Well, he didn't destroy the league, just some fantasy teams.

Its really a funny thing to watch the TRICH owners squirm, actually because when you had DMAC and Moreno and Beanie come out and have their share of problems, it was like an automatic pile on with people saying they were overrated and bad and all. Yet, ALL of these guys had done more than TRICH has at this points in their careers. But somehow TRICH is immune. Despite the eyeball test. Despite the thought that "Hmm, how come all these Alabama RBs enter the league and suck?"

 
If you still believe in Trent Richardson but it's still hard to get him. Owners who drafted him were so high on him two years ago that they are still in shock and don't want to let go.
This is so true. If you look at things unbiased, you probably can't script a worse performance from this guy this year and STILL, if you ask a person to move them, they act like he is the same guy all those people said would destroy the league this year. Well, he didn't destroy the league, just some fantasy teams.

Its really a funny thing to watch the TRICH owners squirm, actually because when you had DMAC and Moreno and Beanie come out and have their share of problems, it was like an automatic pile on with people saying they were overrated and bad and all. Yet, ALL of these guys had done more than TRICH has at this points in their careers. But somehow TRICH is immune. Despite the eyeball test. Despite the thought that "Hmm, how come all these Alabama RBs enter the league and suck?"
Devil's advocate... "all these Alabama RBs" is a grand sample of 2. Trent produced last year, even if he was inefficient. Ingram has shown skills as well, but it's a very poor fit for the offense.

Call me an idiot, but it's too soon to write it off completely IMO.

 
Devil's advocate... "all these Alabama RBs" is a grand sample of 2. Trent produced last year, even if he was inefficient. Ingram has shown skills as well, but it's a very poor fit for the offense.

Call me an idiot, but it's too soon to write it off completely IMO.
Agree. Lacy has looked good, too.

Trent's market is going to be all over the place. Just looking at the forum - plenty of his owners have heavily adjusted how they value him. Sure, there are those who aren't budging, and still value him top 5. But I wouldn't call them the majority. Plenty feel snakebitten and are more likely to sell, and for less, than a few months ago.

 
If you still believe in Trent Richardson but it's still hard to get him. Owners who drafted him were so high on him two years ago that they are still in shock and don't want to let go.
This is so true. If you look at things unbiased, you probably can't script a worse performance from this guy this year and STILL, if you ask a person to move them, they act like he is the same guy all those people said would destroy the league this year. Well, he didn't destroy the league, just some fantasy teams.

Its really a funny thing to watch the TRICH owners squirm, actually because when you had DMAC and Moreno and Beanie come out and have their share of problems, it was like an automatic pile on with people saying they were overrated and bad and all. Yet, ALL of these guys had done more than TRICH has at this points in their careers. But somehow TRICH is immune. Despite the eyeball test. Despite the thought that "Hmm, how come all these Alabama RBs enter the league and suck?"
Devil's advocate... "all these Alabama RBs" is a grand sample of 2. Trent produced last year, even if he was inefficient. Ingram has shown skills as well, but it's a very poor fit for the offense.

Call me an idiot, but it's too soon to write it off completely IMO.
Eddie Lacy has done pretty well so far.

 
Devil's advocate... "all these Alabama RBs" is a grand sample of 2. Trent produced last year, even if he was inefficient. Ingram has shown skills as well, but it's a very poor fit for the offense.

Call me an idiot, but it's too soon to write it off completely IMO.
Agree. Lacy has looked good, too.

Trent's market is going to be all over the place. Just looking at the forum - plenty of his owners have heavily adjusted how they value him. Sure, there are those who aren't budging, and still value him top 5. But I wouldn't call them the majority. Plenty feel snakebitten and are more likely to sell, and for less, than a few months ago.
Offered a top 4 pick next year and Khiry Robinson and was turned down. I thought that was a decent offer. No dice though......

 
I upped the offer to Powell and the pick and still no dice.......

 
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If you still believe in Trent Richardson but it's still hard to get him. Owners who drafted him were so high on him two years ago that they are still in shock and don't want to let go.
This is so true. If you look at things unbiased, you probably can't script a worse performance from this guy this year and STILL, if you ask a person to move them, they act like he is the same guy all those people said would destroy the league this year. Well, he didn't destroy the league, just some fantasy teams.

Its really a funny thing to watch the TRICH owners squirm, actually because when you had DMAC and Moreno and Beanie come out and have their share of problems, it was like an automatic pile on with people saying they were overrated and bad and all. Yet, ALL of these guys had done more than TRICH has at this points in their careers. But somehow TRICH is immune. Despite the eyeball test. Despite the thought that "Hmm, how come all these Alabama RBs enter the league and suck?"
Devil's advocate... "all these Alabama RBs" is a grand sample of 2. Trent produced last year, even if he was inefficient. Ingram has shown skills as well, but it's a very poor fit for the offense.

Call me an idiot, but it's too soon to write it off completely IMO.
Yeah, I get your point. I say "All those.." in the context that given we have had 3 high profile ALabama Rbs come out in such a short time, it just seems like the way to say it because if it were 4 RBs over a 12 year span, people would simply say "You can't compare that. Different times, different lines."

These three guys have all played with essentially the same o-line, teammates, agaisnt the same competition, under the same coaches.

I try to take things for face value. Trich was good last year. Lacy is showing good so far. But for the people that point to that, there are also people who will point to the saying that "A lot of people can do something...one time." Germaine Crowell was awesome..once...ya know?

Without being able to put it into words, I just look at it and think there is something to it. SOme common denominator for us to think of these guys in the same boat.

Personally, I don't care one way or the other with TRICH. Never liked him as much as he was talked up, never tried to get him in any league last year. This year, based on my team with an aging RB corps and some players to play with, I have asked around and got the responce I posted above. That is my only real experience with TRICH and this type of scenario.

 
Makes plenty of sense. I believed in Trent (and I also have Ingram deep on the bench). If I didn't own Trent, I'd try to buy.

I tried to sell Trent in redraft... didn't get the offers I was looking for. Thankfully my teams are deep enough that I can live with Trent on my bench, though it's frustrating.

For my situation, it doesn't make sense to sell him at less than his perceived value coming into the year. So for me, I wouldn't take Powell or Khiry Robinson and a top-4 first. Now if you gave me the #1 first for him... yeah I'd take that I believe (though that may be due to my infatuation with Lache Seastrunk).

 
It seems T-rich has to much value left to be considered a buy low. He was such a huge prospect coming out of college. Meh I'm ok with not getting him.......

 
I like to dumpster dive for these guys. Kenny Britt, McFadden, Knile Davis, and Brian Quick. I feel all four will provide a ROI next season

 
It's almost like you need to treat character as an injury. There's a whole list of obvious guys there.

Cut and paste some of your Wallace comments over to the Miller section.

 
If you still believe in Trent Richardson but it's still hard to get him. Owners who drafted him were so high on him two years ago that they are still in shock and don't want to let go.
14 Team Dynasty ... I thought I was set at RB for years to come when I traded for DMart the week before he got hurt already owning McCoy and TRich.

Three week ago I traded TRich for DJackson and a 2nd Round Rookie Pick ...looks like highway robbery now. I am actually trying to get TRich back for Shorts right now.

I truly think he does rebound as someone mentioned ..his OLine is horrible and I don't think he still knows the offense. I won't give DJackson to get him back, but I don't see him struggling next year ...Top 20 RB next year

 
Cut and paste some of your Wallace comments over to the Miller section.
Perhaps a new regime will help Miller too. If I was higher on his talent, I'd likely view it as a possitive, and attempt to buy. But I think him being replaced as the starter is a very possible outcome; more likely than a new coach giving him 20 touches a game.

 
Robert Turbin: He's been completely written off after the teams addition of Michael, and I don't agree with that conclusion. He beat Michael out in camp, and is very solid in the areas that are keeping Michael off the field; pass protection, especially. He's looked like a solid NFL talent and, while I do see Michael as threat, I think that threat is being measured disproportionately against him. Lynch is turning 28 next season, takes a beating, and Turbin is one injury a way from top 15 numbers, thanks to an ideal situation.
If anything, I think he might be a little overrated. There are lots of people making comments like yours in the Michael threads and really I don't think they appreciate how much more talented Michael is as a runner. Here's a long thread on the Seahawks board about Michael with lots of Turbin comments as well:

http://www.seahawks.net/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=79694

Turbin is a pretty pedestrian runner and people think his pass protection is a big part of the reason why he plays as the backup. He's a steady and reliable backup with very little flash to his game. If he ever becomes a starter in the league, it will probably be as a stopgap guy on another team.

 
Devil's advocate... "all these Alabama RBs" is a grand sample of 2. Trent produced last year, even if he was inefficient. Ingram has shown skills as well, but it's a very poor fit for the offense.

Call me an idiot, but it's too soon to write it off completely IMO.
Agree. Lacy has looked good, too.

Trent's market is going to be all over the place. Just looking at the forum - plenty of his owners have heavily adjusted how they value him. Sure, there are those who aren't budging, and still value him top 5. But I wouldn't call them the majority. Plenty feel snakebitten and are more likely to sell, and for less, than a few months ago.
Offered a top 4 pick next year and Khiry Robinson and was turned down. I thought that was a decent offer. No dice though......
Consider yourself lucky.

 
If anything, I think he might be a little overrated. There are lots of people making comments like yours in the Michael threads and really I don't think they appreciate how much more talented Michael is as a runner. Here's a long thread on the Seahawks board about Michael with lots of Turbin comments as well:

http://www.seahawks.net/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=79694

Turbin is a pretty pedestrian runner and people think his pass protection is a big part of the reason why he plays as the backup. He's a steady and reliable backup with very little flash to his game. If he ever becomes a starter in the league, it will probably be as a stopgap guy on another team.
I don't know how one could find him overrated, based on what I've seen and read from this forum.

Talent is subjective, and we're never going to agree. Michael is a better combine athlete, but that's all anyone really has to go on. Their college situations were very different, so I don't know how fair it is to compare them. Wbrcob could give us insight into their draft position, given that USU is a pretty small school. I'm not putting much stock into pre-season garbage time; certainly not enough for me to conclude that someone is an elite talent at this level, based on it.

I think Turbin could perform in a DeMarco Murray role. He's steady enough to be leaned on, and will get tough yards. He can protect the QB, and is a weapon out of the backfield.

Saying that, I'm not arguing that Turbin is the favorite to replace Lynch, or that he's a better player than Michael. I'm arguing that the market was premature in its dismissal of him, and its crowing of Michael. Even if Michael is a 2-to-1 favorite, the price tag for each is disproportionately wide.

 
I don't know how one could find him overrated, based on what I've seen and read from this forum.
Michael was the higher pick, the better athlete, and the more impressive preseason runner. The main positive for Turbin is that he's been favored as Lynch's backup. The general pattern when this situation is discussed on these message boards is that one camp emphasizes the former whereas the other emphasizes the latter. In other words, one side says Michael is clearly superior and other side asks that if he's so superior then why isn't he playing.

My take is that Turbin is strictly a replacement level runner at the NFL level. So any time people start to talk about him as a long term starter or a threat to a more dynamic talent, I think they're overrating him. And there are still lots of people who feel that way about him. So yes, I'd say he's overrated by a certain sector of the population here. The people who look at him as a viable contender for the Seattle job instead of as a handcuff who might luck his way into a Chris Ivory or BJGE role on his second contract, which is all that I think he is.

It's not just me, mind you. That's why I linked to the Seahawks message board. I have been following this team very closely since May because I drafted many of their rookies across my leagues. So I've pretty much been monitoring this situation from day one. All I've heard with regards to Michael is how explosive and dynamic he has looked. From minicamps all the way up through this weekend. The vibe on Turbin has been a lot more lukewarm. Some people praise his consistent style, but the general impression is that he leaves a lot to be desired as a pure runner. That's all consistent with what I saw from these two players in the preseason. One looked like a threat to make a big play every time he touched the ball and the other looked like he would get what was blocked and not much more or less.

The praise for Michael as a runner is almost unanimous. The Hawks fans seem to believe that Turbin only plays because he's more trustworthy as a pass blocker right now. Once that deficit is eliminated, you'll probably start to see Michael pull away from him. It may happen as soon as the end of this season. Michael is not some kind of can't-miss superstar, but that's mainly related to his questionable durability. The talent seems apparent and I don't think there's any real chance that Turbin can keep him on the bench when Lynch is gone. I look at Turbin as more of a pure backup/handcuff rather than a probable future starter.

 
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Michael Floyd, Justin Hunter, Michael Crabtree might all still be guys you can buy low on. Especially the first two.

 
I don't know how one could find him overrated, based on what I've seen and read from this forum.
Michael was the higher pick, the better athlete, and the more impressive preseason runner. The main positive for Turbin is that he's been favored as Lynch's backup. The general pattern when this situation is discussed on these message boards is that one camp emphasizes the former whereas the other emphasizes the latter. In other words, one side says Michael is clearly superior and other side asks that if he's so superior then why isn't he playing.

My take is that Turbin is strictly a replacement level runner at the NFL level. So any time people start to talk about him as a long term starter or a threat to a more dynamic talent, I think they're overrating him. And there are still lots of people who feel that way about him. So yes, I'd say he's overrated by a certain sector of the population here. The people who look at him as a viable contender for the Seattle job instead of as a handcuff who might luck his way into a Chris Ivory or BJGE role on his second contract, which is all that I think he is.

It's not just me, mind you. That's why I linked to the Seahawks message board. I have been following this team very closely since May because I drafted many of their rookies across my leagues. So I've pretty much been monitoring this situation from day one. All I've heard with regards to Michael is how explosive and dynamic he has looked. From minicamps all the way up through this weekend. The vibe on Turbin has been a lot more lukewarm. Some people praise his consistent style, but the general impression is that he leaves a lot to be desired as a pure runner. That's all consistent with what I saw from these two players in the preseason. One looked like a threat to make a big play every time he touched the ball and the other looked like he would get what was blocked and not much more or less.

The praise for Michael as a runner is almost unanimous. The Hawks fans seem to believe that Turbin only plays because he's more trustworthy as a pass blocker right now. Once that deficit is eliminated, you'll probably start to see Michael pull away from him. It may happen as soon as the end of this season. Michael is not some kind of can't-miss superstar, but that's mainly related to his questionable durability. The talent seems apparent and I don't think there's any real chance that Turbin can keep him on the bench when Lynch is gone. I look at Turbin as more of a pure backup/handcuff rather than a probable future starter.
"Burst", "exlosive", "dynamic" - these words I keep seeing attached to Michael - it's all hyperbole. The same tags were appplied to Chris Ivory this time last year. David Wilson and Lamar Miller, too. Perhaps it will translate to the field at this level, perhaps it won't. But I'm not putting much stock into: "Look how hard it looks like he's running!" - which is what I hear when people use "burst" or "explosion" in place of "je ne sais quoi".

Turbin isn't sexy, so I understand why many don't look twice, and it's why I think there's value there. Morris, Foster, Forte, and others get it done without looking sexy while doing it. I think Turbin, if given the chance, could too.

 
Devil's advocate... "all these Alabama RBs" is a grand sample of 2. Trent produced last year, even if he was inefficient. Ingram has shown skills as well, but it's a very poor fit for the offense.

Call me an idiot, but it's too soon to write it off completely IMO.
Agree. Lacy has looked good, too.

Trent's market is going to be all over the place. Just looking at the forum - plenty of his owners have heavily adjusted how they value him. Sure, there are those who aren't budging, and still value him top 5. But I wouldn't call them the majority. Plenty feel snakebitten and are more likely to sell, and for less, than a few months ago.
I'm doing one of the DLF in-season mocks and I just got Richardson at 3.04. Some owners might be determined to go down with the ship, but his price has dropped substantially.

 
"Burst", "exlosive", "dynamic" - these words I keep seeing attached to Michael - it's all hyperbole. The same tags were appplied to Chris Ivory this time last year. David Wilson and Lamar Miller, too. Perhaps it will translate to the field at this level, perhaps it won't. But I'm not putting much stock into: "Look how hard it looks like he's running!" - which is what I hear when people use "burst" or "explosion" in place of "je ne sais quoi".
Michael had the fastest 10 yard split of any RB/WR at the combine last year. Faster than Tavon Austin. Faster than Marquise Goodwin. Faster than Gio Bernard, Cordarrelle Patterson, or Onterrio McCaleb. If I'm not mistaken, he also has the highest vertical leap of any RB on record at 43". Michael does not have great top speed, but his initial burst is INSANE. This isn't hyperbole. It's quantifiable in the numbers and apparent to the naked eye.

I think you're asleep at the wheel here. You keep describing Michael like he's just a workout warrior or hype creation when in fact there are tangible, concrete reasons behind a lot of the optimism. It started with the raves in minicamps/training camp and extended to his dominant performance in the preseason and now his good showings in the regular season. I think there's a clear narrative here and people ignore that at their own peril.

 
I've been SHOCKED at how cheap Tom Brady has gotten. In the aforementioned mock, I grabbed him in the late 10th round. In a startup I did earlier this year, he fell to the 8th or 9th. Yes, he's struggled, but he's coming off arguably the greatest 5-season stretch in fantasy history, so I'm willing to cut him some slack. Middling QB1 production is usually not too hard to acquire, while those truly stratospheric difference-making seasons are so hard to come by. If Brady has even one of those left in him, he'll repay you for his cost of acquisition several times over.

Speaking of middling QB1 production being cheap, if the Philip Rivers owner isn't starting him every week, I'd go sniffing around there. If this turnaround is legit, he could easily have another 5 years of quality starter-worthy numbers, which is a great potential payoff of a guy I'm frequently seeing going outside of the top 18, behind guys like Geno Smith.

Le'Veon Bell seems like a strong buy to me. People talk all the time about how average and mediocre and replaceable he seems to be, but the guy is a HORSE. Name another NFL RB who was born in 1992 and has 20+ touch potential going forward. Hell, I'll make it easier for you- name another NFL RB who was born in 1992. I'll wait. That kind of youth and workload is valuable. Even if he's just another Rashard Mendenhall... Mendenhall finished 13th, 7th, and 19th in a 3-year span. Plus, if the Mendenhall comp holds up, then when Pittsburgh moves on from him, you can always get someone like EBF to overpay ( ;) ).

The game last weekend might have closed the window, but Mark Ingram strikes me as a guy who might benefit from a change of scenery, and who is cheap enough that I might grab him to find out if I was right.

It's a shame Tavon Austin caught those two long touchdowns, because he was a big buy-low target of mine in recent weeks. Hopefully you got offers out for him early, because I think his asking price has just gone up.

Kendall Wright has been quietly terrific this season. I'd definitely try to get him before he starts becoming loudly terrific. Keeping it in Tennessee, I think Justin Hunter and Kenny Britt are two other guys whose upside far exceeds their miniscule prices currently. I've seen owners considering cutting both of those guys this season. I'm sure some owners somewhere actually went through with it.

If the Josh Gordon owner in any of my leagues is getting nervous after Blackmon's suspension, I would be very happy to take Gordon off his hands for him.

Vance McDonald / Gavin Escobar. Out of sight, out of mind. Same principle for Levine Toilolo, although I think he's a much lesser prospect than the other two.

 
"Burst", "exlosive", "dynamic" - these words I keep seeing attached to Michael - it's all hyperbole. The same tags were appplied to Chris Ivory this time last year. David Wilson and Lamar Miller, too. Perhaps it will translate to the field at this level, perhaps it won't. But I'm not putting much stock into: "Look how hard it looks like he's running!" - which is what I hear when people use "burst" or "explosion" in place of "je ne sais quoi".
Michael had the fastest 10 yard split of any RB/WR at the combine last year. Faster than Tavon Austin. Faster than Marquise Goodwin. Faster than Gio Bernard, Cordarrelle Patterson, or Onterrio McCaleb. If I'm not mistaken, he also has the highest vertical leap of any RB on record at 43". Michael does not have great top speed, but his initial burst is INSANE. This isn't hyperbole. It's quantifiable in the numbers and apparent to the naked eye.

I think you're asleep at the wheel here. You keep describing Michael like he's just a workout warrior or hype creation when in fact there are tangible, concrete reasons behind a lot of the optimism. It started with the raves in minicamps/training camp and extended to his dominant performance in the preseason and now his good showings in the regular season. I think there's a clear narrative here and people ignore that at their own peril.
"Burst" isn't quantifiable. It doesn't mean quick, or fast, or powerfull; it means whatever we want it to mean - different things for different players and situations.

Michael is a physical specimen . There is a long list, however, of NFL athletes who possesed quality physical traits but didn't amount to anything. Average college production, camp fluff, preseason play, and 17 NFL carries doesn't add up to a top 12 dynasty ranking to me; especially when injury and character concerns come into play. That's why there's value in Turbin: Many take those incomplete data points and project more than I think is wise. Those people have given the job to Michael, prematurely.

Again, I'm not projecting Turbin to beat Michael out (long term) and take over for Lynch. But, given the situation, I feel the underdog is the play, here.

 
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"Burst", "exlosive", "dynamic" - these words I keep seeing attached to Michael - it's all hyperbole. The same tags were appplied to Chris Ivory this time last year. David Wilson and Lamar Miller, too. Perhaps it will translate to the field at this level, perhaps it won't. But I'm not putting much stock into: "Look how hard it looks like he's running!" - which is what I hear when people use "burst" or "explosion" in place of "je ne sais quoi".
Michael had the fastest 10 yard split of any RB/WR at the combine last year. Faster than Tavon Austin. Faster than Marquise Goodwin. Faster than Gio Bernard, Cordarrelle Patterson, or Onterrio McCaleb. If I'm not mistaken, he also has the highest vertical leap of any RB on record at 43". Michael does not have great top speed, but his initial burst is INSANE. This isn't hyperbole. It's quantifiable in the numbers and apparent to the naked eye.

I think you're asleep at the wheel here. You keep describing Michael like he's just a workout warrior or hype creation when in fact there are tangible, concrete reasons behind a lot of the optimism. It started with the raves in minicamps/training camp and extended to his dominant performance in the preseason and now his good showings in the regular season. I think there's a clear narrative here and people ignore that at their own peril.
"Burst" isn't quantifiable. It doesn't mean quick, or fast, or powerfull; it means whatever we want it to mean - different things for different players and situations.

Michael is a physical specimen . There is a long list, however, of NFL athletes who possesed quality physical traits but didn't amount to anything. Average college production, camp fluff, preseason play, and 17 NFL carries doesn't add up to a top 12 dynasty ranking to me; especially when injury and character concerns come into play. That's why there's value in Turbin: Many take those incomplete data points and project more than I think is wise. Those people have given the job to Michael, and I don't think that's wise.

Again, I'm not projecting Turbin to beat Michael out and take over for Lynch. But, given the situation, I feel the underdog is the play, here.
I'm not going to say much more about it. You're entitled to your opinion and if that's your take then so be it.

I think you touched on one of the big challenges of this endeavor, which is extracting accurate conclusions from limited information. Anyone (like SSOG ;) ) can tout a success story like Gronk or Harvin AFTER he's revealed himself to be a difference-maker. Likewise, anyone can rip a bust like Dayne or Canidate after he's proven himself a flop. What's difficult is to look at the "maybes" and figure out who's legit and who's a fraud before it's totally obvious.

I look at Michael and see a pretty consistent narrative:

- Solid efficiency stats in college.

- Awesome workout numbers.

- High draft pick.

- Rave reviews in training camp.

- Awesome performance in preseason games.

To me, that's about as solid as you're going to get for a player who isn't a proven commodity. So I feel pretty good treating this "maybe" more like a "probably."

As far as Turbin goes, he was a significantly lower pick. He's a very good workout numbers athlete, but not quite as freakish as Michael. Subjectively, I don't find him that impressive when I watch him play and I know that many Seattle homers also feel that way. You've even got guys like Evan Silva writing at length about this. I think Turbin is still a "maybe" because he hasn't played enough for his verdict to be completely sealed, but in his case I think he's a "probably not."

If you can spot some of these hits/misses before the consensus catches up then there's room to make profits.

I think Michael is a 100% talent lock, so for me the only brake pedal is his (legitimate and troubling) injury history. Maybe I'm wrong. Time will tell. I do want to get that opinion out there though and explain that it goes a lot deeper than "Oh, he tested well at the combine."

 
Le'Veon Bell seems like a strong buy to me. People talk all the time about how average and mediocre and replaceable he seems to be, but the guy is a HORSE. Name another NFL RB who was born in 1992 and has 20+ touch potential going forward. Hell, I'll make it easier for you- name another NFL RB who was born in 1992. I'll wait. That kind of youth and workload is valuable. Even if he's just another Rashard Mendenhall... Mendenhall finished 13th, 7th, and 19th in a 3-year span. Plus, if the Mendenhall comp holds up, then when Pittsburgh moves on from him, you can always get someone like EBF to overpay ( ;) ).
Along those same lines, I'd kick the tires on Zac Stacy. His owner may feel like he's selling high... but you may in fact be buying below market price since he somewhat came out of nowhere (draft status notwithstanding).

I see quite a bit when I watch him play, and that team, IMO, has much bigger issues than RB. Another season of 3-down workhorse status may justify the price.

 
I have tried for 3 weeks to get Trent Richardson from a contending team. The only counter offer he gave me was I give Sproles, Spiller, Julius Thomas and Dwayne Bowe. I get Richardson, Robert Woods and 2 throw ins. I don't even remember who they are but I would cut them both.

 
I have tried for 3 weeks to get Trent Richardson from a contending team. The only counter offer he gave me was I give Sproles, Spiller, Julius Thomas and Dwayne Bowe. I get Richardson, Robert Woods and 2 throw ins. I don't even remember who they are but I would cut them both.
I've found the same for the most part. All the talk of "buying low" in relation to Richardson is just talk. No one is willing to sell low - and I can't say I can blame them. They may as well hold and hope that the offseason does him some good.

 
I've been SHOCKED at how cheap Tom Brady has gotten. In the aforementioned mock, I grabbed him in the late 10th round. In a startup I did earlier this year, he fell to the 8th or 9th. Yes, he's struggled, but he's coming off arguably the greatest 5-season stretch in fantasy history, so I'm willing to cut him some slack. Middling QB1 production is usually not too hard to acquire, while those truly stratospheric difference-making seasons are so hard to come by. If Brady has even one of those left in him, he'll repay you for his cost of acquisition several times over.

Speaking of middling QB1 production being cheap, if the Philip Rivers owner isn't starting him every week, I'd go sniffing around there. If this turnaround is legit, he could easily have another 5 years of quality starter-worthy numbers, which is a great potential payoff of a guy I'm frequently seeing going outside of the top 18, behind guys like Geno Smith.

Le'Veon Bell seems like a strong buy to me. People talk all the time about how average and mediocre and replaceable he seems to be, but the guy is a HORSE. Name another NFL RB who was born in 1992 and has 20+ touch potential going forward. Hell, I'll make it easier for you- name another NFL RB who was born in 1992. I'll wait. That kind of youth and workload is valuable. Even if he's just another Rashard Mendenhall... Mendenhall finished 13th, 7th, and 19th in a 3-year span. Plus, if the Mendenhall comp holds up, then when Pittsburgh moves on from him, you can always get someone like EBF to overpay ( ;) ).

The game last weekend might have closed the window, but Mark Ingram strikes me as a guy who might benefit from a change of scenery, and who is cheap enough that I might grab him to find out if I was right.

It's a shame Tavon Austin caught those two long touchdowns, because he was a big buy-low target of mine in recent weeks. Hopefully you got offers out for him early, because I think his asking price has just gone up.

Kendall Wright has been quietly terrific this season. I'd definitely try to get him before he starts becoming loudly terrific. Keeping it in Tennessee, I think Justin Hunter and Kenny Britt are two other guys whose upside far exceeds their miniscule prices currently. I've seen owners considering cutting both of those guys this season. I'm sure some owners somewhere actually went through with it.

If the Josh Gordon owner in any of my leagues is getting nervous after Blackmon's suspension, I would be very happy to take Gordon off his hands for him.

Vance McDonald / Gavin Escobar. Out of sight, out of mind. Same principle for Levine Toilolo, although I think he's a much lesser prospect than the other two.
Regarding Brady, I traded a mid to late 2nd for him today. Seemed a cheap price to me. 6pt per passing TD.
 
What are people's thoughts on Marcus Lattimore? Gore seems to be an ageless wonder but at some point father time will catch up and history shows that dropoff will be fast and steep. Lattimore owners may not be necessarily selling at this point for cheaper than they drafted him, but he may still be cheaper at this moment relative to 9 months from now. I don't believe Hunter and James are the heir apparents in SF, it will either be Lattimore or a RB not yet drafted.

 
[SIZE=medium] Team[/SIZE] A [SIZE=medium]gave up:
McGahee, Willis CLE RB
Richardson, Trent IND RB
Gresham, Jermaine CIN TE[/SIZE]

[SIZE=medium]Team B gave up:
Vereen, Shane NEP RB
Wright, Kendall TEN WR
Daniels, Owen HOU TE[/SIZE]

[SIZE=medium]This just went down in a 16 teamer....I am not either team[/SIZE]

 

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