Dynasty Question (1 Viewer)

[Zaphod]

I am curious if you had to choose between two players at the same position, which would you choose and why?

For the foundation of discussion, let's assume you participate in a dynasty league that has a draft which may include veteran and other fringe players in the yearly draft along with all the rookies. Just so that we can put names to this scenario, let's say we are talking about drafting M. Turner or J. Norwood.

Turner will be our "hot backup" guy. A player that has looked good in limited competition, but at least it is at the NFL level. He has a few additional years on his tires along with the accompanying wear. (Yes, I know it is slight wear, but it is there nonetheless).

Norwood will be our “upside” guy. An interesting player that played on a poor offensive squad yet still put up fairly stellar numbers against some stiff competition, in college. He is not in the ‘future all-pro’ strata, but he has enough skills to make owners think he could exceed at the next level.

Now let’s also assume that they will both have very limited fantasy worth for 2 years. Turner will most likely stay with SD as a RFA and then leave after 2007. Norwood will back up Dunn this year and next and then get his shot in 2008. (understand that both of these assumptions are just that – plausible scenarios to put the players on equal footing for this discussion).

There you sit. The dynasty owner in his war room, on the clock. Your team is pretty solid and you are looking for RB depth for the future. The clock is ticking and your opponents are heckling you while you debate. Do you take the backup with a small degree of NFL success or the unproven, somewhat intriguing prospect?

 

[Pedro Cerrano Fan]

In this specific case Turner, but only because he hasn't yet defined his ceiling. When backups define their ceiling, and it's generally low (as in perhaps, they'd be a poor starting RB in the league) then I go with the rook.

 

[stevegamer]

In the specific case, Turner in a millisecond. If he was available in dynasty FA/rookie draft this year for some reason, he'd be an early first rounder at worst. I'd think he'd be in the mix to go 1st overall.

In general I'd take the guy who's shown he can do it at the NFL level if he's a legit prospect in his own right. Turner, when he came out was roughly equivalent to Norwood, I think. Therefore, since not washed out at the NFL level yet, he carries less risk.

 

[Zaphod]

In general I'd take the guy who's shown he can do it at the NFL level if he's a legit prospect in his own right. Turner, when he came out was roughly equivalent to Norwood, I think. Therefore, since not washed out at the NFL level yet, he carries less risk.

I can see that. If a guy has shown something, even a little at the NFL level, you might want to go with him. But what about him potentially being a backup for 3 or 4 years? Does that concern you at all?Are you not intrigued by the latest RB flavor of the season?

 

[DoubleG]

Are you not intrigued by the latest RB flavor of the season?

Not really. See "Mike Anderson", "Quentin Griffin" and "Kevan Barlow" for details I agree with the other posters - and mainly because NFL coaches seem to. Look at Chester Taylor and Lamont Jordan - both showed what they could do as backups and got handed unquestioned starter gigs. Contrast that to a myriad of rookies who look good in preseason, than seemingly disappear. Don't get me wrong - there are exceptions (Willie Parker - for example), but I think the guys who have "put in some time" get more respect from coaches and thus a more legit shot as a featured back (and the touches that go along with it).A big factor though, seems to be health. Guys who, even as backups, can't seem to stay healthy don't garner nearly the same amount of 'respect' (i.e. DeShaun Foster and Najeh Davenport).

 

[Tick]

I can't give a general answer - I have to take it on a case-by-case basis.

Some recent pairs I expected to start and the results (tried to give similarly valued players):

Garrard - entering his third year on my roster, still not a starter.

Rodgers - entering ssecond year on my roster, still not a starter.

Dewayne White - entering his third year on my roster, still not a starter.

Justin Tuck - just cut him due to them drafting Kiwanuka.

Musa Smith - entering his second year on my roster, it didn't work out.

Tyson Thompson - entering his second year on my roster, it didn't work out.

Chester Taylor - hit paydirt on that one.

Frank Gore - hit paydirt on that one.

TJ Duckett - doubtful that he'll ever be a starter.

Sam Gado - hard to say at this point if he'll ever be a starter.

Patrick Ramsey - entering second year on my roster, got a shot but failed.

Luke McCown - entering third year on my roster, got a shot but failed, still has a future.

I don't tend to take RBs in a rookie draft after the first half of the first round. Gore is the only exception I can think of.