Gonzalez and Garcon are the two competing for the WR2 spot - and it seems that many people are quick to forget that Gonzo had won that job coming into this season. Gonzo (pre-injury) was as fast as Garcon and has much better hands. His catch % in 2008 was the 2nd highest in the AFC behind Welker.
Anyone automatically pencilling in Garcon as the starter and simply projecting his stats upward from this season may be deeply disappointed. I don't own either player in any league, but if I had Garcon, even in a dynasty league I woul either hold or sell high, but certainly not buy (not in the WR22-26 range), as him starting and getting significant touches is hardly given.
The Garcon who lost the starting job is not even close to the Garcon of today. He is perhaps the most improved player in the league and he is faster than Gonzalez (especially in actual game speed). Garcon is much stronger too. His route running is eons better now than at the beginning of the season. He has good enough hands, but needs to focus more and that part of his game also improved as the season went on. Stats don't factor into my opinion. I just think Garcon right now is better than Gonzalez and he has just started to tap into his potential. That and his much better big play ability tells me Garcon starts next year.
We could round and round on this. First off, there's a whole bunch of subjectivity in your post. Let me suggest some other stats that might want to be considered:
Garcon - 47 receptions on 88 targets. Gonzalez had 57 receptions on 78 targets in 2008...and Marvin Harrison had 100 targets in 2008.
Garcon had a catch% of 53.4% of targets - that was 79th amoung WRs in 2009. In 2008, Gonzo's catch % was 73.1% - top 5 of WRs with at least 30 receptions. Suggesting that Garcon's hands are "good enough" is being a little generous in my opinion. Most starting WRs in the league had better hands than he did in 2009.
According to Profootball Focus (
here) Garcon, in terms of their grading system was ranked 92nd in overall rating for WRs this past year. In 2008 Gonzo graded out in the top 50. Keep in mind both WRs were in their 2nd year at the time of those grades.
Garcon had 4 TDs in 2009 - Gonzo had 4 TDs in 2008. The difference is that Harrison, Wayne and Clark were all still playing in 2008. Garcon only had Wayne and Clark to beat out for catches and TDs.
Both are the same height, and virtually the same speed (at least prior to Gonzales' injury). Garcon is 17 lbs. heavier.
Don't get me wrong. Garcon is developing into a nice WR - but to suggest that he will easily take over the starting spot from Gonzo next year might be overly optomistic. Again, I hold no dog in this fight (other than Manning) - so I couldn't care less who starts. I just calls 'em likes I see's 'em.
You seem to be infatuated with Anthony Gonzalez's stellar performance and high catch % as a slot receiver for the Colts, and keep relying on his catch % as a kind of barometer for how effective Gonzo would be in making the transition to flanker. I covered a great deal of this ground already
about 25 pages up thread, back in December.The gist of it is that Garcon is NOT seeking to take Gonzo's spot in the offense, but rather Harrison's. Yet you keep arguing that Garcon has to beat out Gonzo to take the outside WR role opposite Reggie Wayne. The only time they were competing to take over the WR2 position, a/k/a Marvin Harrison's old role as flanker, was back in training camp prior to the regular season. Gonzo had been ear-marked to take over the position, and Manning even worked privately with Gonzalez one-on-one in the offseason to speed up the learning curve, and better prepare Gonzo for the expected move going into 2009. However, Garcon became a 'fly in the ointment' for Gonzo when he showed up light years ahead of schedule (developmentally) and appeared ready to take on the flanker position way ahead of everyone's expectations or the Colts imagined time table. Suddenly at the eleventh hour in August of last year all bets were off and the situation became more fluid than anyone could ever have imagined. Gonzo may very well have held an upper hand in this battle in August of 2009, but it was clear that Garcon's skill set was better suited to the flanker position, and Gonzo's sudden injury settled the matter and cleared up any potential logjam at the flanker position. Since then Garcon has rewarded the Colts faith in him, and Collie has filled in admirably in Gonzalez's old role out of the slot. It is unlikely as well as unneccessary to continue the experiment of moving Gonzalez to the outside now that Garcon has shown so much ability and enjoyed a full season's worth of success on the outside (where his skills are best suited). The most logical thing for the Colts to do going forward is to allow Garcon to continue to grow and flourish in his role opposite Wayne on the outside. I would be happy to place a wager with you that this is how the Colts proceed in 2010 (barring any injury to Garcon).
Part of the problem in you're analysis is an over reliance upon catch% as a barometer of what makes a good starting WR in the NFL. Don't get me wrong, it is important, but it loses its importance when you start comparing slot receivers to WRs who run deeper routes on the outside, and you're not really comparing 'apples to apples' when you compare Gonzalez's catch % to Garcon's. Additionally, Garcon essentially red-shirted his 1st season with the Colts, so while you're correct in saying this is his 2nd season in the NFL, you're also making an 'apples to oranges' comparison every time you try to equate Gonzo's 2nd season with Garcon's. For all intents and purposes this is Garcon's 1st season as a starter and he is playing a different position than Gonzalez (or Collie for that matter); and Garcon is doing a phenomenal job, making a pretty big transition to go from Div III to starting flanker for one of the NFL’s premier passing attacks led by a perfectionist at the top of his game in Peyton Manning. Rather than Garcon, if you are going to compare Gonzo's catch % to anyone's then you need to compare it with Collie's, since both player's relevant statistics were accumulated from the slot, rather than the flanker position.
But back to catch % for a moment... Maybe your over reliance upon this stat explains the confusion here. If you could judge a WR simply by catch %, then Gonzo's one of the greatest of all time, and he must be better than future HOF'er Marvin Harrison. After all Gonzo's catch % of 71% in 2008 beats any of Harrison's that I can find (which was traditionally around 60%). From the linked post above:
Obviously Harrison is a HOF caliber WR and Garcon is only in his 2nd year in the NFL, and 1st season as a starter. Therefore if you want an explanation for his sub-60% catch%, then I would suggest it probably has something to do with a young player’s learning curve, rather than proof that Gonzalez or Collie are better receivers...for right now I’m not as concerned about catch%, as I am about just seeing growth and signs of improvement as Garcon learns the position and develops a rapport with Manning. Happily that appears to be what we are seeing and Polian has come out repeatedly and indicated that Garcon is on schedule or exceeding the Colts expectations for his development...
You should be comparing Garcon's numbers with Harrison's rather than Gonzo's, and I would say Garcon in his 1st season as a starter being around 53% is not a very big concern. Especially when you consider Harrison was closer to 60%, even in his prime. Give Garcon another year or two of seasoning and we will likely see improvement here, although it will never approach 70%, because it's production out of the flanker position rather than the slot.
Seems to me Gonzo is at best 5th or 6th option in that offense behind Wayne, Clark, Garcon, Collie, and maybe even Addai.
Seems to me Gonzo is at best 5th or 6th option in that offense behind Wayne, Clark, Garcon, Collie, and maybe even Addai.
Seems to me Gonzo is at best 5th or 6th option in that offense behind Wayne, Clark, Garcon, Collie, and maybe even Addai.
