Dynasty Rankings (2 Viewers)

[SSOG]

Your rankings inertia post was fascinating and something I had never heard of before. I would be curious to see some examples of your rankings now and in previous seasons. What criteria do you use for your rankings? ie - talent vs. situation, age, etc. For example, in a dynasty, where would you rank somebody like Randy Moss vs. DeSean Jackson? Where do rookies fall into your rankings? How often do you update?

I don't do formal rankings nearly as much as I ought to. Most of the time I've just got a fluid, constantly shifting set of "mental rankings". I've been meaning to get into the practice of doing written rankings every month, but the problem (as it always is) is just one of time.As for what criteria I use for my rankings... talent weighs far more than situation, but situation still matters (especially in extreme cases such as with Reggie Wayne vs. Lee Evans- two WRs who I think are actually pretty close on the talent scale). Age only begins to matter when a player approaches the drop points (30 for an RB and 34 for a WR. QBs and TEs don't have clearly defined drop points). Basically, I value players using an "exit value" system- in other words, projecting what a player's value will be 2, 3, or 4 years from now and combining that with my projections to create some sort of comprehensive value system. Projections over the 2-4 year span are made on a combination of talent and situation. Exit value is based on a combination of talent and age. The resulting system winds up double-counting talent, which seems more than fair. You can read more about it here or here.

On an unrelated note, while looking through some really, really old posts in this thread, I stumbled across the following quote:

F&L accused me earlier of buying and selling players like stocks, and I still think there's merit to that consideration. I mean, assume that I believe that Moss will outproduce Fitzgerald for the next three years... and then fall off of a cliff. Let's also assume that I believe that Moss's value will remain constant for the next 3 years, too. I would project Fitz to be the better dynasty prospect, but I'd keep Moss anyway, milk the extra production out of him, and then sell him for a Fitzgerald-type after I'd benefitted from the extra scoring for a couple of years. I'm not so much concerned with whether a player's PRODUCTION is going to drop over the next season as I am with whether his VALUE is going to drop over the next season. I'd rather miss out on some stellar production if I get a lot more exit value out of the deal.

As I said earlier... things change fast around here. And in defense of my new process (acquire talent) over my old process (play the market), the example I used wound up being a terrible one- Brady broke his leg in the next game and Moss's value plummeted, never to approach Fitzgerald's again. That's the problem with playing your dynasty league like a stock market- sometimes you miss your window to sell.

 

[SSOG]

Other interesting magazine talk: Johnny Knox was by far the biggest leap from 1st mag to 2nd. He was in the 50's at WR in the first mag. Evan and I both had him in the top-30 for the 2nd mag, and Gregg had him just outside the top-30.Montario Hardesty has leapfrogged Ben Tate.We like Miles Austin.I have Jabar Gaffney at least 30(!) places higher than Evan or Gregg have him. I have McFadden almost 20 spots higher than Evan has him. I have Steve Smith South ten spots higher than Evan has him. We all like Zach Miller. We all like Jamaal Charles, but Gregg is loving him more and more.We're all over the map on Greg Jennings: Evan (6), Wess (11), Gregg (17). We all believe Percy Harvin is No. 21 at WR, Felix Jones is No. 20 at WR, Michael Crabtree is No. 14 at WR, LeSean McCoy is No. 23 at RB, and (oddly enough) Brandon LaFell is No. 77 at WR. We can't agree on the order of the top-5 tight ends, but we do agree that they're incredibly close in value.

Good stuff, F&L. Is this for dynasty or redraft?

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Other interesting magazine talk: Johnny Knox was by far the biggest leap from 1st mag to 2nd. He was in the 50's at WR in the first mag. Evan and I both had him in the top-30 for the 2nd mag, and Gregg had him just outside the top-30.Montario Hardesty has leapfrogged Ben Tate.We like Miles Austin.I have Jabar Gaffney at least 30(!) places higher than Evan or Gregg have him. I have McFadden almost 20 spots higher than Evan has him. I have Steve Smith South ten spots higher than Evan has him. We all like Zach Miller. We all like Jamaal Charles, but Gregg is loving him more and more.We're all over the map on Greg Jennings: Evan (6), Wess (11), Gregg (17). We all believe Percy Harvin is No. 21 at WR, Felix Jones is No. 20 at WR, Michael Crabtree is No. 14 at WR, LeSean McCoy is No. 23 at RB, and (oddly enough) Brandon LaFell is No. 77 at WR. We can't agree on the order of the top-5 tight ends, but we do agree that they're incredibly close in value.

Good stuff, F&L. Is this for dynasty or redraft?

Redraft, sorry. Not applicable to the thread, but thought it might be interesting seeing the difference of opinion.

 

[SSOG]

Redraft, sorry. Not applicable to the thread, but thought it might be interesting seeing the difference of opinion.

It's still applicable to the thread. I was just asking because, oddly enough, it seems like every single ranking that you chose to highlight would have made perfect sense from either a dynasty OR a redraft perspective.Surprised to see Knox making such a big leap. Apparently you guys are all-in on the idea that he's the #1 in Chicago. Where do you have Hester ranked?

 

[Fear & Loathing]

(especially in extreme cases such as with Reggie Wayne vs. Lee Evans- two WRs who I think are actually pretty close on the talent scale)

I truly believe Lee Evans is more talented than Reggie Wayne.

 

[Fighting Noles]

SSOG - I guess we just differ somewhat then when it comes to how much inertia to place in ones rankings. I think Chris (F & L) has done a great job with this thread & his blog and I have used it as a resource in every Dynasty draft I've participated in. But, it also has helped remind me just how quickly things do change in the NFL and why I've liked F & L's stances often, because he usually has adjusted quickly.

If you check his archives on the blog, at WR, in late August, 2008 (just two seasons ago, @ the position which most consider the longest shelflife & stablest) the following WR's were ranked in the Top 25 (WR's 1 or 2):

7) Braylon (Mid 30's for most now, definite uncertainty though)

9) T.O. (Done? - Late draft pick)

12) Holt (Ditto - Not even drafted depending on league size)

13) Holmes (On run first team now & knucklehead factor)

15) Roy Williams ( I just drafted him in the 19th RD of a startup as my WR8)

16) Bowe (Big year coming up for him as far as future value goes)

17) Plax (Done - "Knucklehead")

18) Housh (Going pretty late now in my drafts)

19) Evans (Talent still there but going in the 40's now usually)

21) Cotchery (Going too late now IMO, but late nonetheless)

23) Marvin H (F&L was hoping for at least one more season but no go)

25) SMoss (Very up/Down - Hopefully McNabb helps some)

That's 12 of the 25 & I think F & L is one of the best at doing this (& putting it out there for all to track - Kudos for the archives by the way Chris, a lot of other sites don't list their past years).

He also had Roddy @ #22 but considered him a "Prime Sell High" with Turners'/Ryans' arrival & stated that he'd have SSmith #3 (& fighting for #1, instead of #5 where he ranked him) if it wasn't for his concerns over short & long term QB issues.

Again, I think everyone can see there are valid reasons for why some/many of these guys are no longer near their previous ranks, but I do think its fair game to discuss issues like contracts, QB's, age, knuckleheads, etc. when it comes to these guys because things do change very quickly IMO & avoiding the ones who drop or underperform is key to long term production in Dynasty Leagues. I think two years ago most people would have agreed that those guys were "talented" or passed the eyeball test but now the list looks a lot different.....

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Redraft, sorry. Not applicable to the thread, but thought it might be interesting seeing the difference of opinion.

It's still applicable to the thread. I was just asking because, oddly enough, it seems like every single ranking that you chose to highlight would have made perfect sense from either a dynasty OR a redraft perspective.Surprised to see Knox making such a big leap. Apparently you guys are all-in on the idea that he's the #1 in Chicago. Where do you have Hester ranked?

We don't love Hester nearly as much as you do. But from my end, that's actually more of a Dynasty issue. I just don't think he has staying power. I believe we all had Hester in the mid-30s for 2010 though. Aromashodu was a faller -- corollary to Knox rising. I think he went from late 20s/early 30s to mid 40s. For the record, I've always preferred Knox among the three in Dynasty leagues. I just think he's easily the best talent as a receiver.That being said, in a redraft league, I don't think anybody can be surprised by the Chicago WRs this year. I wouldn't be shocked if Aromashodu, Hester, or even one of the other led the team in receptions under Martz. Hell, if Furrey and McDonald can do it. . . . But if we're looking for breakout candidates (and that's the only thing I'm ever looking for at WR3/4), then it's Knox for me.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

(especially in extreme cases such as with Reggie Wayne vs. Lee Evans- two WRs who I think are actually pretty close on the talent scale)

I truly believe Lee Evans is more talented than Reggie Wayne.

That's how much situation matters.It's a good lesson for us "talent >>>> situation" guys. But it ultimately won't change the process. It can't.

 

[J-Dawg]

Your rankings inertia post was fascinating and something I had never heard of before. I would be curious to see some examples of your rankings now and in previous seasons. What criteria do you use for your rankings? ie - talent vs. situation, age, etc. For example, in a dynasty, where would you rank somebody like Randy Moss vs. DeSean Jackson? Where do rookies fall into your rankings? How often do you update?

I don't do formal rankings nearly as much as I ought to. Most of the time I've just got a fluid, constantly shifting set of "mental rankings". I've been meaning to get into the practice of doing written rankings every month, but the problem (as it always is) is just one of time.As for what criteria I use for my rankings... talent weighs far more than situation, but situation still matters (especially in extreme cases such as with Reggie Wayne vs. Lee Evans- two WRs who I think are actually pretty close on the talent scale). Age only begins to matter when a player approaches the drop points (30 for an RB and 34 for a WR. QBs and TEs don't have clearly defined drop points). Basically, I value players using an "exit value" system- in other words, projecting what a player's value will be 2, 3, or 4 years from now and combining that with my projections to create some sort of comprehensive value system. Projections over the 2-4 year span are made on a combination of talent and situation. Exit value is based on a combination of talent and age. The resulting system winds up double-counting talent, which seems more than fair. You can read more about it here or here.

On an unrelated note, while looking through some really, really old posts in this thread, I stumbled across the following quote:

F&L accused me earlier of buying and selling players like stocks, and I still think there's merit to that consideration. I mean, assume that I believe that Moss will outproduce Fitzgerald for the next three years... and then fall off of a cliff. Let's also assume that I believe that Moss's value will remain constant for the next 3 years, too. I would project Fitz to be the better dynasty prospect, but I'd keep Moss anyway, milk the extra production out of him, and then sell him for a Fitzgerald-type after I'd benefitted from the extra scoring for a couple of years. I'm not so much concerned with whether a player's PRODUCTION is going to drop over the next season as I am with whether his VALUE is going to drop over the next season. I'd rather miss out on some stellar production if I get a lot more exit value out of the deal.

As I said earlier... things change fast around here. And in defense of my new process (acquire talent) over my old process (play the market), the example I used wound up being a terrible one- Brady broke his leg in the next game and Moss's value plummeted, never to approach Fitzgerald's again. That's the problem with playing your dynasty league like a stock market- sometimes you miss your window to sell.

Very interesting post, thanks for the explanation. I am always searching for new ways to rank and project that will allow my teams to be and remain more competitive as time goes on so this helps.Btw, Chris, thanks for the RW insight. As an Aromashodu owner, the movement of Knox is something I like to keep my eyes on.

 

[SSOG]

(especially in extreme cases such as with Reggie Wayne vs. Lee Evans- two WRs who I think are actually pretty close on the talent scale)

I truly believe Lee Evans is more talented than Reggie Wayne.

I do, too, but I think it's not a big difference, and I'm trying to limit the number of controversies I find myself embroiled in at one time.

SSOG - I guess we just differ somewhat then when it comes to how much inertia to place in ones rankings. I think Chris (F & L) has done a great job with this thread & his blog and I have used it as a resource in every Dynasty draft I've participated in. But, it also has helped remind me just how quickly things do change in the NFL and why I've liked F & L's stances often, because he usually has adjusted quickly.

Inert is really a relative term. When I say that I have relatively "inert" rankings, that doesn't mean that I don't move anyone around... it just means that I don't move people around AS MUCH AS someone else might. For what it's worth, I'd characterize F&L's rankings as very inert, too. I think both he and I approach our rankings with a mindset that everyone is going to hold their old ranking... unless we see some reason to move them. In other words, players need to give us a compelling reason in order for us to move them. Someone else might approach their rankings with the opposite mindset- players need to give them a compelling reason in order for them to retain their position. Larry Fitzgerald makes for an interesting windsock right now to measure which way a ranker's tendencies blow. The inert guys will tend to keep Fitz higher ("someone needs to give me a compelling reason in order for me to drop him from his perch"), while the flexible guys will tend to keep Fitz lower ("someone needs to give me a compelling reason why Fitzgerald should be considered a top-tier WR right now").Other guys who make for good litmus tests right now are guys like Ochocinco or Smiff- guys with the legit talent but lacking in recent production- or Sidney Rice- a guy with stable talent but fluctuating situation. Of course, the surest sign of fluid rankings is that the upper tiers looks like a who's who of NFL players on hot streaks.

 

[Shock6822]

Thanks for the replies on Roddy vs Reggie everyone...was leaning Roddy but this helped. My other dilemma now is Deangelo vs Pierre Thomas at pick 35 in a PPR dynasty startup...I have Ray Rice and Roddy right now. There are other solid players available (Sidney Rice, VJax, Crabtree, Romo, Best, Grant, both Steve Smiths, every TE, etc) as well, but I think I'd like one of those 2, since my next pick is 62 and I'm pretty sure all the solid RB2s will be gone by then. My thoughts are as follows: Deangelo has his injury history and Stewart to contend with, as well as the potential of Matt Moore taking some TDs and carries (ie, more pass attempts) from him. However, PT has Payton as the unknown...I'd take PT if I knew he'd get even 200 carries, but since he only had 147 last year, that's not a given. I know Deangelo's contract is also up after this year, and I don't know if Carolina would be wiling to pay him what he'll likely command to keep their 2 back system in place...so this could be a good or bad thing. PT will catch more passes, but will he get the carries with Bush and Hamilton in the mix to make him a better pick than Deangelo? My last consideration is age - Deangelo is 2 years older at age 27. Thanks for the help!

 

[J-Dawg]

Thanks for the replies on Roddy vs Reggie everyone...was leaning Roddy but this helped. My other dilemma now is Deangelo vs Pierre Thomas at pick 35 in a PPR dynasty startup...I have Ray Rice and Roddy right now. There are other solid players available (Sidney Rice, VJax, Crabtree, Romo, Best, Grant, both Steve Smiths, every TE, etc) as well, but I think I'd like one of those 2, since my next pick is 62 and I'm pretty sure all the solid RB2s will be gone by then. My thoughts are as follows: Deangelo has his injury history and Stewart to contend with, as well as the potential of Matt Moore taking some TDs and carries (ie, more pass attempts) from him. However, PT has Payton as the unknown...I'd take PT if I knew he'd get even 200 carries, but since he only had 147 last year, that's not a given. I know Deangelo's contract is also up after this year, and I don't know if Carolina would be wiling to pay him what he'll likely command to keep their 2 back system in place...so this could be a good or bad thing. PT will catch more passes, but will he get the carries with Bush and Hamilton in the mix to make him a better pick than Deangelo? My last consideration is age - Deangelo is 2 years older at age 27. Thanks for the help!

As somebody who owned both last year, let me tell you, DeAngelo is the guy you want. PT has a ton of talent, but it almost seems like Sean Payton looks for ways not to utilize him as a RB1 which was frustrating to deal with on a week by week basis. I eventually traded PT midway through the season. Lynell Hamilton could fill the Mike Bell role and vulture a few TDs and yards and as you said, Bush will be the focal point of a PPR attack. DeAngelo when healthy last year was seeing a 60-40 split with Stewart in his favor and with John Fox favoring vets that should continue. In the 3rd round, DeAngelo is great value and should once again return to having high quality RB1 numbers at a fraction of the price. Obviously the contract situation is tricky and nothing is certain, but considering that the Panthers are in a good position right now to have two of the best RBs in the game in the same backfield it keeps both fresher and I think they would like to continue that trend and re-sign DeAngelo. The age thing again is another concern as you said, but in this case, I wouldn't use it as a determining factor when ranking both guys since I feel that D-Will is the superior talent in a better situation with less weapons around him to steal points from him. Hope that helpted

 

[Shock6822]

Thanks for the replies on Roddy vs Reggie everyone...was leaning Roddy but this helped. My other dilemma now is Deangelo vs Pierre Thomas at pick 35 in a PPR dynasty startup...I have Ray Rice and Roddy right now. There are other solid players available (Sidney Rice, VJax, Crabtree, Romo, Best, Grant, both Steve Smiths, every TE, etc) as well, but I think I'd like one of those 2, since my next pick is 62 and I'm pretty sure all the solid RB2s will be gone by then. My thoughts are as follows: Deangelo has his injury history and Stewart to contend with, as well as the potential of Matt Moore taking some TDs and carries (ie, more pass attempts) from him. However, PT has Payton as the unknown...I'd take PT if I knew he'd get even 200 carries, but since he only had 147 last year, that's not a given. I know Deangelo's contract is also up after this year, and I don't know if Carolina would be wiling to pay him what he'll likely command to keep their 2 back system in place...so this could be a good or bad thing. PT will catch more passes, but will he get the carries with Bush and Hamilton in the mix to make him a better pick than Deangelo? My last consideration is age - Deangelo is 2 years older at age 27. Thanks for the help!

As somebody who owned both last year, let me tell you, DeAngelo is the guy you want. PT has a ton of talent, but it almost seems like Sean Payton looks for ways not to utilize him as a RB1 which was frustrating to deal with on a week by week basis. I eventually traded PT midway through the season. Lynell Hamilton could fill the Mike Bell role and vulture a few TDs and yards and as you said, Bush will be the focal point of a PPR attack. DeAngelo when healthy last year was seeing a 60-40 split with Stewart in his favor and with John Fox favoring vets that should continue. In the 3rd round, DeAngelo is great value and should once again return to having high quality RB1 numbers at a fraction of the price. Obviously the contract situation is tricky and nothing is certain, but considering that the Panthers are in a good position right now to have two of the best RBs in the game in the same backfield it keeps both fresher and I think they would like to continue that trend and re-sign DeAngelo. The age thing again is another concern as you said, but in this case, I wouldn't use it as a determining factor when ranking both guys since I feel that D-Will is the superior talent in a better situation with less weapons around him to steal points from him. Hope that helpted

Great points. Regarding the contract situation though, I do think DWilly will want to be paid like a top tier RB, and I'm guessing the Panthers are comfortable drafting another RB to take his place. Worst comes to worst for them in a couple years, Stewart is getting 70% of the carries and the other 30% are relegated to another back or back(s). That's how I assume it'd play out, unless Williams is willing to take a hometown discount. Regardless, I'm sure even if Williams went somewhere else, he'd be the feature back or top end of a committee

 

[Instinctive]

Yeah, but you're building a dynasty. Rice is young and has a style that should lend itself to longevity. Roddy will have years more of top production.

I would take Sidney Rice or Crabtree there.

In fact, in a recent startup, my first picks were:

1.02 CJ

2.11 Roddy White

3.02 Sidney Rice

I'm not sure if I would have taken Crabtree there, because he was gone even before White, but it would have been a tough decision. RB2s are not the key to building a dynasty. Having the top WR corps and a top QB allow you to get new RBs every year, and it's a run away championship when the RB(s) click.

If it's 14 or 16 team, I'd take Phillip Rivers there because QBs are more vaulable in larger leagues...and I might even take him in yours. The QBs and WRs have the longest shelf life and can help your team always compete for a title. Then you can hit on a guy like Jamaal Charles or Jerome Harrison, or trade away somebody to get that RB you need in the midst of a championship run.

 

[Shock6822]

Yeah, but you're building a dynasty. Rice is young and has a style that should lend itself to longevity. Roddy will have years more of top production.I would take Sidney Rice or Crabtree there. In fact, in a recent startup, my first picks were:1.02 CJ2.11 Roddy White3.02 Sidney RiceI'm not sure if I would have taken Crabtree there, because he was gone even before White, but it would have been a tough decision. RB2s are not the key to building a dynasty. Having the top WR corps and a top QB allow you to get new RBs every year, and it's a run away championship when the RB(s) click.If it's 14 or 16 team, I'd take Phillip Rivers there because QBs are more vaulable in larger leagues...and I might even take him in yours. The QBs and WRs have the longest shelf life and can help your team always compete for a title. Then you can hit on a guy like Jamaal Charles or Jerome Harrison, or trade away somebody to get that RB you need in the midst of a championship run.

Very valid points. I did end up taking Deangelo (Rivers was gone) because I felt his value was too good to pass on. Even if he has 3-4 good years left, I can trade him, and I'll have RB depth regarldess of whether I took him or not. I also feel WR sleepers are much easier to come by than RB ones...throw mud at a wall and some will stick sort of thing lol. That's typically been my thought process in drafts anyways.

 

[jwb]

Thanks for the replies on Roddy vs Reggie everyone...was leaning Roddy but this helped. My other dilemma now is Deangelo vs Pierre Thomas at pick 35 in a PPR dynasty startup...I have Ray Rice and Roddy right now. There are other solid players available (Sidney Rice, VJax, Crabtree, Romo, Best, Grant, both Steve Smiths, every TE, etc) as well, but I think I'd like one of those 2, since my next pick is 62 and I'm pretty sure all the solid RB2s will be gone by then.

Don't draft for RB need here. Take Rice or Crabby and don't look back. Grant may very well still be there at 62. If not, grab one of the other rookies (B Tate, Hardesty) or maybe McFadden / M Bush / etc there or whatnot.edit: sorry, seem I posted after the fact. Oh well.

 

[Instinctive]

We've had an interesting discussion goin on in another topic about taking a QB in the first round of a dynasty.

Basically it stalemated and so it has given birth to a league to see which strategy works better, or if we can even tell if one is better than the other. Anybody who wants in should PM "Go Deep" there's a few spots left.

And... What do we all think about QB value in dynasties? Would you rather have CJ or A-Rod?

 

[Shock6822]

Thanks for the replies on Roddy vs Reggie everyone...was leaning Roddy but this helped. My other dilemma now is Deangelo vs Pierre Thomas at pick 35 in a PPR dynasty startup...I have Ray Rice and Roddy right now. There are other solid players available (Sidney Rice, VJax, Crabtree, Romo, Best, Grant, both Steve Smiths, every TE, etc) as well, but I think I'd like one of those 2, since my next pick is 62 and I'm pretty sure all the solid RB2s will be gone by then.

Don't draft for RB need here. Take Rice or Crabby and don't look back. Grant may very well still be there at 62. If not, grab one of the other rookies (B Tate, Hardesty) or maybe McFadden / M Bush / etc there or whatnot.edit: sorry, seem I posted after the fact. Oh well.

No worries, RBs are going in strings now, and apparently the next 3 people had DeAngelo queued up...from the looks of things, Tate/Hardesty may not even make it to 62, and I'm not high on either.

 

[SSOG]

We've had an interesting discussion goin on in another topic about taking a QB in the first round of a dynasty.Basically it stalemated and so it has given birth to a league to see which strategy works better, or if we can even tell if one is better than the other. Anybody who wants in should PM "Go Deep" there's a few spots left.And... What do we all think about QB value in dynasties? Would you rather have CJ or A-Rod?

Does CJ mean Chris or Calvin Johnson? I'd rather have Chris Johnson that Aaron Rodgers, but I'd rather have Aaron Rodgers than Calvin Johnson.

 

[kremenull]

Thanks for the replies on Roddy vs Reggie everyone...was leaning Roddy but this helped. My other dilemma now is Deangelo vs Pierre Thomas at pick 35 in a PPR dynasty startup...I have Ray Rice and Roddy right now. There are other solid players available (Sidney Rice, VJax, Crabtree, Romo, Best, Grant, both Steve Smiths, every TE, etc) as well, but I think I'd like one of those 2, since my next pick is 62 and I'm pretty sure all the solid RB2s will be gone by then. My thoughts are as follows: Deangelo has his injury history and Stewart to contend with, as well as the potential of Matt Moore taking some TDs and carries (ie, more pass attempts) from him. However, PT has Payton as the unknown...I'd take PT if I knew he'd get even 200 carries, but since he only had 147 last year, that's not a given. I know Deangelo's contract is also up after this year, and I don't know if Carolina would be wiling to pay him what he'll likely command to keep their 2 back system in place...so this could be a good or bad thing. PT will catch more passes, but will he get the carries with Bush and Hamilton in the mix to make him a better pick than Deangelo? My last consideration is age - Deangelo is 2 years older at age 27. Thanks for the help!

I'd take Best, Crabtree, and Sid Rice over either of the guys you mentioned that u are considering. Not even close......

 

[GreatLakesMike]

We've had an interesting discussion goin on in another topic about taking a QB in the first round of a dynasty.Basically it stalemated and so it has given birth to a league to see which strategy works better, or if we can even tell if one is better than the other. Anybody who wants in should PM "Go Deep" there's a few spots left.And... What do we all think about QB value in dynasties? Would you rather have CJ or A-Rod?

Does CJ mean Chris or Calvin Johnson? I'd rather have Chris Johnson that Aaron Rodgers, but I'd rather have Aaron Rodgers than Calvin Johnson.

I think it depends on starting requirements and scoring formats. I wouldn't draft Rodgers over either CJ, and it's not even close.

 

[Shadows]

SSOG can u help me out with ur thoughts on Good/Bad processes and Good/Bad outcomes. I remember reading ur thoughts on this a while back and it made for some fasinating reading. Trouble is i cant find it ???

Cheers Mate

 

[az_prof]

Redraft, sorry. Not applicable to the thread, but thought it might be interesting seeing the difference of opinion.

It's still applicable to the thread. I was just asking because, oddly enough, it seems like every single ranking that you chose to highlight would have made perfect sense from either a dynasty OR a redraft perspective.Surprised to see Knox making such a big leap. Apparently you guys are all-in on the idea that he's the #1 in Chicago. Where do you have Hester ranked?

We don't love Hester nearly as much as you do. But from my end, that's actually more of a Dynasty issue. I just don't think he has staying power. I believe we all had Hester in the mid-30s for 2010 though. Aromashodu was a faller -- corollary to Knox rising. I think he went from late 20s/early 30s to mid 40s. For the record, I've always preferred Knox among the three in Dynasty leagues. I just think he's easily the best talent as a receiver.That being said, in a redraft league, I don't think anybody can be surprised by the Chicago WRs this year. I wouldn't be shocked if Aromashodu, Hester, or even one of the other led the team in receptions under Martz. Hell, if Furrey and McDonald can do it. . . . But if we're looking for breakout candidates (and that's the only thing I'm ever looking for at WR3/4), then it's Knox for me.

I am confident that one and even maybe two of Chicago's receivers will be top 20 this year; but I am not at all convinced that anyone knows which one or two. I didn't see enough of a difference in talent among the three relatively young WRs, Bennett, Knox, and Aromashodu. Bennett is the youngest and has the best hands. Knox has the most speed and a knack for getting open deep. Aromashodu is a run after catch beast. But they all have weaknesses. Bennett doesn't have top end speed. Knox is small and didn't show me much ability to get open across the middle. Aromashodu has questionable hands. Hester looks to me to have a skill set similar to Knox but he is older and if I were HC I would want him to focus on KR/PR, where he has made a real impact in the past. But it's truly a crap shoot. We can try to parse what the coaches say in the off season but the starting jobs will be won in the preseason, and until then it is just guess work. So, I would go after whichever ones I could get cheapest. Sort of the same approach I used to take with the Denver backfield under Shanny--it's like a lottery. You want in the lottery, but you want the cheapest ticket you can buy.

 

[BigJim®]

I've said in the past that there are two fundamental ways to run a dynasty squad. The first is to run it like a stock market, always trying to buy low and sell high, trying to anticipate shifts in the market and act preemptively to make a profit. There's nothing wrong with that method. Lots of people have a lot of success with that method. That's not how I run my team, though. "Stock Market" owners will have rankings that fluctuate wildly from week to week, creating dramatic shifts in response to the smallest of news blips. Personally, I try to run my team the second way- acquire talent, hold talent, accumulate talent. My rankings tend to be much, much more resistant to change.

Agree with most of your post, but FWIW, think you might be pigeon-holing buy low/sell high a bit. I think stock market is a good analogy for how I manage my FF team, but don't see a huge distinction between my stock market approach and your talent concept, since I typically evaluate buy low candidates based on talent. Although predicting of future circumstance/opportunity is also important, I readily target guys who may be nothing for the foreseeable future. Concerning rankings that fluctuate 'wildly' on a weekly basis based on 'the smallest of news blips' - sounds a lot like you're describing FF day-trading, which I'd suggest is a minority of FF 'investors.' I too like to accumulate and hold talent that can eventually be leveraged to obtain new buy-low commodities some point down the road, but can't imagine doing anything based on the smallest of news blips. I guess in other words I consider myself a 'long' investor, which I think is a good approach for building and sustaining a dynasty team.

 

[The Carnage]

SSOG can u help me out with ur thoughts on Good/Bad processes and Good/Bad outcomes. I remember reading ur thoughts on this a while back and it made for some fasinating reading. Trouble is i cant find it ???

Cheers Mate

Here you go...

 

[n20]

Looks like VJax is on the table. Anyone want to speculate on which teams would make good trading partners?

Link

 

[ItsOnlytheRiver]

Looks like VJax is on the table. Anyone want to speculate on which teams would make good trading partners?

Link

Well, the article mentioned Seattle and Washington, so let's start there. As someone who paid a pretty high price for the guy right before he decided to hold out, I would be disappointed with either destination, though Washington would be OK in the short term. I'd rather this just get worked out with the Chargers, even if this season has to be a waste.

 

[n20]

Looks like VJax is on the table. Anyone want to speculate on which teams would make good trading partners?

Link

Well, the article mentioned Seattle and Washington, so let's start there. As someone who paid a pretty high price for the guy right before he decided to hold out, I would be disappointed with either destination, though Washington would be OK in the short term. I'd rather this just get worked out with the Chargers, even if this season has to be a waste.

Sorry, I should have mentioned Seattle and Washington as the obvious starting points. I'll throw a few out there:Cincy

Cleveland

Tampa Bay

Buffalo

Jax

Carolina

I doubt AJ looks at the AFC West for a deal but... anything could happen, I guess.

 

[massraider]

Looks like VJax is on the table. Anyone want to speculate on which teams would make good trading partners?

Link

Well, the article mentioned Seattle and Washington, so let's start there. As someone who paid a pretty high price for the guy right before he decided to hold out, I would be disappointed with either destination, though Washington would be OK in the short term. I'd rather this just get worked out with the Chargers, even if this season has to be a waste.

Sorry, I should have mentioned Seattle and Washington as the obvious starting points. I'll throw a few out there:Cincy

Cleveland

Tampa Bay

Buffalo

Jax

Carolina

I doubt AJ looks at the AFC West for a deal but... anything could happen, I guess.

The thing I think that makes a VJax trade possible is that the market was set by Marshall. There's enough similarities that I think two 2nd rounders is the range teams will start with. And if I was another NFL GM, think I'd be a lot less concerned about DUI's than Marshall's past (Not to start that argument again).

A bunch of teams could use him. If I was AJ, nothing more I'd like to do than send him to Buffalo. Carolina? Love the fit for both teams. A 2nd stud WR to take the pressure off Moore/Smith. Make so much sense that you know it won't happen.

 

[SSOG]

Agree with most of your post, but FWIW, think you might be pigeon-holing buy low/sell high a bit. I think stock market is a good analogy for how I manage my FF team, but don't see a huge distinction between my stock market approach and your talent concept, since I typically evaluate buy low candidates based on talent. Although predicting of future circumstance/opportunity is also important, I readily target guys who may be nothing for the foreseeable future. Concerning rankings that fluctuate 'wildly' on a weekly basis based on 'the smallest of news blips' - sounds a lot like you're describing FF day-trading, which I'd suggest is a minority of FF 'investors.' I too like to accumulate and hold talent that can eventually be leveraged to obtain new buy-low commodities some point down the road, but can't imagine doing anything based on the smallest of news blips. I guess in other words I consider myself a 'long' investor, which I think is a good approach for building and sustaining a dynasty team.

I think the biggest key distinction, in my mind, between the two styles is that I'm never going to acquire a player I don't believe in just because he might be in line for a value boost. I acquire lots of guys whose value, in my opinion, is about to rise sharply... but I do it because the reason their value is going to rise is because I'm a firm believer in the underlying talent. This whole "stock market" idea really came to a head last offseason when people were talking about how Cadillac Williams might be in line for a major value boost. Personally, I think Caddy is an untalented, injury-prone, overrated back, so I wanted no part of him. I'd much rather burn those end-of-the-roster spots on guys like Mike Sims-Walker, Chaz Schilens, Mike Wallace, Pierre Garcon, Austin Collie, Miles Austin, Andre Caldwell, Ramses Barden, Shawn Nelson, etc. And that's not selective memory, either- that's a complete list of guys that I added to the end of my roster at bargain-basement prices immediately before the season and after week 1 last year with the roster spots that I didn't burn trying to acquire Caddy on the cheap.In hindsight, the pro-Williams crowd was right. His value did wind up seeing a decent bump, although it remained pretty relatively low throughout the whole season (unless you managed to find someone to pull the trigger immediately after week 1). I also feel like I was right, too, though. In the long run, my team is better off because I used those roster spots on guys like MSW, Wallace, Garcon/Collie, Austin, Schilens, etc.I guess, to put it more succinctly (succinct... there's a word you don't hear me say much )... if anyone ever asked me why I just added a player, I would always say "because I think he's better than his current cost". I would never say "because I think his value is going to go up".

 

[n20]

Looks like VJax is on the table. Anyone want to speculate on which teams would make good trading partners?

Link

Well, the article mentioned Seattle and Washington, so let's start there. As someone who paid a pretty high price for the guy right before he decided to hold out, I would be disappointed with either destination, though Washington would be OK in the short term. I'd rather this just get worked out with the Chargers, even if this season has to be a waste.

Sorry, I should have mentioned Seattle and Washington as the obvious starting points. I'll throw a few out there:Cincy

Cleveland

Tampa Bay

Buffalo

Jax

Carolina

I doubt AJ looks at the AFC West for a deal but... anything could happen, I guess.

The thing I think that makes a VJax trade possible is that the market was set by Marshall. There's enough similarities that I think two 2nd rounders is the range teams will start with. And if I was another NFL GM, think I'd be a lot less concerned about DUI's than Marshall's past (Not to start that argument again).

A bunch of teams could use him. If I was AJ, nothing more I'd like to do than send him to Buffalo. Carolina? Love the fit for both teams. A 2nd stud WR to take the pressure off Moore/Smith. Make so much sense that you know it won't happen.

Ha! So true. Although, if I'm Hurney or Fox I make trades involving future picks for studs all day because I may not be around in a year.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

I think the biggest key distinction, in my mind, between the two styles is that I'm never going to acquire a player I don't believe in just because he might be in line for a value boost. I acquire lots of guys whose value, in my opinion, is about to rise sharply... but I do it because the reason their value is going to rise is because I'm a firm believer in the underlying talent. This whole "stock market" idea really came to a head last offseason when people were talking about how Cadillac Williams might be in line for a major value boost. Personally, I think Caddy is an untalented, injury-prone, overrated back, so I wanted no part of him. I'd much rather burn those end-of-the-roster spots on guys like Mike Sims-Walker, Chaz Schilens, Mike Wallace, Pierre Garcon, Austin Collie, Miles Austin, Andre Caldwell, Ramses Barden, Shawn Nelson, etc. And that's not selective memory, either- that's a complete list of guys that I added to the end of my roster at bargain-basement prices immediately before the season and after week 1 last year with the roster spots that I didn't burn trying to acquire Caddy on the cheap.In hindsight, the pro-Williams crowd was right. His value did wind up seeing a decent bump, although it remained pretty relatively low throughout the whole season (unless you managed to find someone to pull the trigger immediately after week 1). I also feel like I was right, too, though. In the long run, my team is better off because I used those roster spots on guys like MSW, Wallace, Garcon/Collie, Austin, Schilens, etc.I guess, to put it more succinctly (succinct... there's a word you don't hear me say much )... if anyone ever asked me why I just added a player, I would always say "because I think he's better than his current cost". I would never say "because I think his value is going to go up".

Which really just means, "I agree with you," of course. This articulates my approach better than I could have done myself. I don't want a guy who might 'boom' into a RB3 in hopes of finding a sucker to whom I can pawn him off on if it happens. Aside from wasting a roster space that could be going to the next Garcon or Henne or Celek where's the fun in relying on finding a 'greater fool' to win your league?

 

[Fear & Loathing]

I think the biggest key distinction, in my mind, between the two styles is that I'm never going to acquire a player I don't believe in just because he might be in line for a value boost. I acquire lots of guys whose value, in my opinion, is about to rise sharply... but I do it because the reason their value is going to rise is because I'm a firm believer in the underlying talent. This whole "stock market" idea really came to a head last offseason when people were talking about how Cadillac Williams might be in line for a major value boost. Personally, I think Caddy is an untalented, injury-prone, overrated back, so I wanted no part of him. I'd much rather burn those end-of-the-roster spots on guys like Mike Sims-Walker, Chaz Schilens, Mike Wallace, Pierre Garcon, Austin Collie, Miles Austin, Andre Caldwell, Ramses Barden, Shawn Nelson, etc. And that's not selective memory, either- that's a complete list of guys that I added to the end of my roster at bargain-basement prices immediately before the season and after week 1 last year with the roster spots that I didn't burn trying to acquire Caddy on the cheap.In hindsight, the pro-Williams crowd was right. His value did wind up seeing a decent bump, although it remained pretty relatively low throughout the whole season (unless you managed to find someone to pull the trigger immediately after week 1). I also feel like I was right, too, though. In the long run, my team is better off because I used those roster spots on guys like MSW, Wallace, Garcon/Collie, Austin, Schilens, etc.I guess, to put it more succinctly (succinct... there's a word you don't hear me say much )... if anyone ever asked me why I just added a player, I would always say "because I think he's better than his current cost". I would never say "because I think his value is going to go up".

Which really just means, "I agree with you," of course. This articulates my approach better than I could have done myself. I don't want a guy who might 'boom' into a RB3 in hopes of finding a sucker to whom I can pawn him off on if it happens. Aside from wasting a roster space that could be going to the next Garcon or Henne or Celek where's the fun in relying on finding a 'greater fool' to win your league?

 

[Go deep]

Agree with most of your post, but FWIW, think you might be pigeon-holing buy low/sell high a bit. I think stock market is a good analogy for how I manage my FF team, but don't see a huge distinction between my stock market approach and your talent concept, since I typically evaluate buy low candidates based on talent. Although predicting of future circumstance/opportunity is also important, I readily target guys who may be nothing for the foreseeable future. Concerning rankings that fluctuate 'wildly' on a weekly basis based on 'the smallest of news blips' - sounds a lot like you're describing FF day-trading, which I'd suggest is a minority of FF 'investors.' I too like to accumulate and hold talent that can eventually be leveraged to obtain new buy-low commodities some point down the road, but can't imagine doing anything based on the smallest of news blips. I guess in other words I consider myself a 'long' investor, which I think is a good approach for building and sustaining a dynasty team.

I think the biggest key distinction, in my mind, between the two styles is that I'm never going to acquire a player I don't believe in just because he might be in line for a value boost. I acquire lots of guys whose value, in my opinion, is about to rise sharply... but I do it because the reason their value is going to rise is because I'm a firm believer in the underlying talent. This whole "stock market" idea really came to a head last offseason when people were talking about how Cadillac Williams might be in line for a major value boost. Personally, I think Caddy is an untalented, injury-prone, overrated back, so I wanted no part of him. I'd much rather burn those end-of-the-roster spots on guys like Mike Sims-Walker, Chaz Schilens, Mike Wallace, Pierre Garcon, Austin Collie, Miles Austin, Andre Caldwell, Ramses Barden, Shawn Nelson, etc. And that's not selective memory, either- that's a complete list of guys that I added to the end of my roster at bargain-basement prices immediately before the season and after week 1 last year with the roster spots that I didn't burn trying to acquire Caddy on the cheap.In hindsight, the pro-Williams crowd was right. His value did wind up seeing a decent bump, although it remained pretty relatively low throughout the whole season (unless you managed to find someone to pull the trigger immediately after week 1). I also feel like I was right, too, though. In the long run, my team is better off because I used those roster spots on guys like MSW, Wallace, Garcon/Collie, Austin, Schilens, etc.

I guess, to put it more succinctly (succinct... there's a word you don't hear me say much )... if anyone ever asked me why I just added a player, I would always say "because I think he's better than his current cost". I would never say "because I think his value is going to go up".

Ive been playing my dynasty leagues like the stock market for years, well since i made a bad trade based on my love for a player. I quickly learned to not get attached to ANY player, which kind of resulted in me trading alot more. I will say though, i dont trade for players just because their stock might go up a bit, unless like you said, i believe in thier talent. Some examples this year are players like Deseaon Jackson and Felix Jones. The way i see it, the more trades you make that help your team than hurt your team, the better your team will obviously be. You dont need to hit a homerun on every trade, if a trade even improves your team by .5%, the more you make, the better off you will be. This way of running a dynasty team isnt for everyone, but if you can do it right, you can build a dominate team.

 

[ookook]

First time ever asking for advice, but I am really undecided and would welcome input from y'all.

I have a trade offer to me giving me A. Rodgers for Big Ben and the 1.04 rookie pick.

It is a contract league, not dynasty, but most relevant contracts are 3 or 4 years. 5 pt per thrown TD, -1/INT.

If it was 1.03, I would hang onto it, weather the year of degraded QB play, and be confident of adding a quality starter who would contribute soon enough to make a difference.

But I see a drop after 1.03 and am uncertain.

I currently have Don Brown, Beanie Wells, Jerome Harrison a RB. Gates at TE. Fitz, Steve Smith (CAR), and Crabby to start at WR with PPR.

One issue I have is that I am not sure I am strong enough at RB or can get a good one in free agent auction to make a meaningful run this year, and next year (when Ben would be productive again) only if Brown starts getting the lion's share of RB work in Indy. Then again, for this year at least J. Harrison might be effective enough and I should be strong at WR to cover some.

And who would I take at 1.04 anyway with Bryant, Mathews, and Best off the board. I like Spiller some , but not sure when he will be the lead back and I feel like I have a limited window. Hardesty is where I had been leaning before getting the trade offer.

So please forgive the assistant coach request, but I would welcome some thoughts.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

First time ever asking for advice, but I am really undecided and would welcome input from y'all.I have a trade offer to me giving me A. Rodgers for Big Ben and the 1.04 rookie pick. It is a contract league, not dynasty, but most relevant contracts are 3 or 4 years. 5 pt per thrown TD, -1/INT.If it was 1.03, I would hang onto it, weather the year of degraded QB play, and be confident of adding a quality starter who would contribute soon enough to make a difference.But I see a drop after 1.03 and am uncertain.I currently have Don Brown, Beanie Wells, Jerome Harrison a RB. Gates at TE. Fitz, Steve Smith (CAR), and Crabby to start at WR with PPR.One issue I have is that I am not sure I am strong enough at RB or can get a good one in free agent auction to make a meaningful run this year, and next year (when Ben would be productive again) only if Brown starts getting the lion's share of RB work in Indy. Then again, for this year at least J. Harrison might be effective enough and I should be strong at WR to cover some.And who would I take at 1.04 anyway with Bryant, Mathews, and Best off the board. I like Spiller some , but not sure when he will be the lead back and I feel like I have a limited window. Hardesty is where I had been leaning before getting the trade offer.So please forgive the assistant coach request, but I would welcome some thoughts.

I wouldnt hesitate to accept that deal. It's getting a top 15 pick for #50 and #100 in a startup.

 

[Shadows]

SSOG can u help me out with ur thoughts on Good/Bad processes and Good/Bad outcomes. I remember reading ur thoughts on this a while back and it made for some fasinating reading. Trouble is i cant find it ???

Cheers Mate

Here you go...

After reading that again - 1 of the best fantasy related posts i have ever read.

 

[Go deep]

First time ever asking for advice, but I am really undecided and would welcome input from y'all.I have a trade offer to me giving me A. Rodgers for Big Ben and the 1.04 rookie pick. It is a contract league, not dynasty, but most relevant contracts are 3 or 4 years. 5 pt per thrown TD, -1/INT.If it was 1.03, I would hang onto it, weather the year of degraded QB play, and be confident of adding a quality starter who would contribute soon enough to make a difference.But I see a drop after 1.03 and am uncertain.I currently have Don Brown, Beanie Wells, Jerome Harrison a RB. Gates at TE. Fitz, Steve Smith (CAR), and Crabby to start at WR with PPR.One issue I have is that I am not sure I am strong enough at RB or can get a good one in free agent auction to make a meaningful run this year, and next year (when Ben would be productive again) only if Brown starts getting the lion's share of RB work in Indy. Then again, for this year at least J. Harrison might be effective enough and I should be strong at WR to cover some.And who would I take at 1.04 anyway with Bryant, Mathews, and Best off the board. I like Spiller some , but not sure when he will be the lead back and I feel like I have a limited window. Hardesty is where I had been leaning before getting the trade offer.So please forgive the assistant coach request, but I would welcome some thoughts.

I wouldnt hesitate to accept that deal. It's getting a top 15 pick for #50 and #100 in a startup.

You think Big Ben wouldnt come off the board until the 9th round in a dynasty start-up?

 

[HenryMuto]

I got a high stakes Dynasty start up draft starting in the next week or so. I may check in on your guys expertise on a few picks here and there. Cost was $1,000 to get in and is PPR with 1.5 TE. TE's will fly off the board. Is Finley worth a late 1st/early 2nd round pick ?

You get 2 flex spots in this league so you can actually play 3 TE's if u get 3 decent ones.

With the 1.5 PPR they go awfully fast.

Or do you sit back and grab elite RB's and WR's while others gobble up the TE's ?

This is a league like I have never been in before. 2 Flex and 1.5 TE PPR those are 2 new things to me and I been around, this is my 21st year.

I am guessing the top 4 RB's go in some order 1-4. AJ, Fitz and Calvin sure to follow along with possibly Rodgers some where in the mix.

Then people start looking at TE from the other drafts I have seen.

So thoughts ?

 

[Go deep]

I got a high stakes Dynasty start up draft starting in the next week or so. I may check in on your guys expertise on a few picks here and there. Cost was $1,000 to get in and is PPR with 1.5 TE. TE's will fly off the board. Is Finley worth a late 1st/early 2nd round pick ?You get 2 flex spots in this league so you can actually play 3 TE's if u get 3 decent ones.With the 1.5 PPR they go awfully fast.Or do you sit back and grab elite RB's and WR's while others gobble up the TE's ?This is a league like I have never been in before. 2 Flex and 1.5 TE PPR those are 2 new things to me and I been around, this is my 21st year.I am guessing the top 4 RB's go in some order 1-4. AJ, Fitz and Calvin sure to follow along with possibly Rodgers some where in the mix.Then people start looking at TE from the other drafts I have seen.So thoughts ?

What do the other positions get for receptions?

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

First time ever asking for advice, but I am really undecided and would welcome input from y'all.I have a trade offer to me giving me A. Rodgers for Big Ben and the 1.04 rookie pick. It is a contract league, not dynasty, but most relevant contracts are 3 or 4 years. 5 pt per thrown TD, -1/INT.If it was 1.03, I would hang onto it, weather the year of degraded QB play, and be confident of adding a quality starter who would contribute soon enough to make a difference.But I see a drop after 1.03 and am uncertain.I currently have Don Brown, Beanie Wells, Jerome Harrison a RB. Gates at TE. Fitz, Steve Smith (CAR), and Crabby to start at WR with PPR.One issue I have is that I am not sure I am strong enough at RB or can get a good one in free agent auction to make a meaningful run this year, and next year (when Ben would be productive again) only if Brown starts getting the lion's share of RB work in Indy. Then again, for this year at least J. Harrison might be effective enough and I should be strong at WR to cover some.And who would I take at 1.04 anyway with Bryant, Mathews, and Best off the board. I like Spiller some , but not sure when he will be the lead back and I feel like I have a limited window. Hardesty is where I had been leaning before getting the trade offer.So please forgive the assistant coach request, but I would welcome some thoughts.

I wouldnt hesitate to accept that deal. It's getting a top 15 pick for #50 and #100 in a startup.

You think Big Ben wouldnt come off the board until the 9th round in a dynasty start-up?

Maybe even later. He's QB14 in the latest dynasty rankings.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

I personally would let others draft Big Ben....his overall FF numbers aren't as strong if you look at his career....I think last season was a mirage.

 

[munchkin]

First time ever asking for advice, but I am really undecided and would welcome input from y'all.I have a trade offer to me giving me A. Rodgers for Big Ben and the 1.04 rookie pick. It is a contract league, not dynasty, but most relevant contracts are 3 or 4 years. 5 pt per thrown TD, -1/INT.If it was 1.03, I would hang onto it, weather the year of degraded QB play, and be confident of adding a quality starter who would contribute soon enough to make a difference.But I see a drop after 1.03 and am uncertain.I currently have Don Brown, Beanie Wells, Jerome Harrison a RB. Gates at TE. Fitz, Steve Smith (CAR), and Crabby to start at WR with PPR.One issue I have is that I am not sure I am strong enough at RB or can get a good one in free agent auction to make a meaningful run this year, and next year (when Ben would be productive again) only if Brown starts getting the lion's share of RB work in Indy. Then again, for this year at least J. Harrison might be effective enough and I should be strong at WR to cover some.And who would I take at 1.04 anyway with Bryant, Mathews, and Best off the board. I like Spiller some , but not sure when he will be the lead back and I feel like I have a limited window. Hardesty is where I had been leaning before getting the trade offer.So please forgive the assistant coach request, but I would welcome some thoughts.

I wouldnt hesitate to accept that deal. It's getting a top 15 pick for #50 and #100 in a startup.

You think Big Ben wouldnt come off the board until the 9th round in a dynasty start-up?

Maybe even later. He's QB14 in the latest dynasty rankings.

Rodgers is such an upgrade at QB and with his starting WR's he would really help his team. We know Roethlisberger is out for the first 3 games minimum and with Moss gone and a bit of an unknown in Wallace Pittsburgh's passing offense needs to be built back up again. Ward is solid but for how much longer? Green Bay has great depth across the board and should be productive for the next several years.There are a lot of folks who like Spiller's upside but when will we see it in that offense? Hardesty could be as good as any back coming out this year but Cleveland makes him a bit more of a roll of the dice also.The play for Rodgers seems like solid value. He will need to see something from Brown but Wells is in line for a potentially productive season in Arizona even with Hightower sharing some of the backfield duties.

 

[gheemony]

First time ever asking for advice, but I am really undecided and would welcome input from y'all.I have a trade offer to me giving me A. Rodgers for Big Ben and the 1.04 rookie pick. It is a contract league, not dynasty, but most relevant contracts are 3 or 4 years. 5 pt per thrown TD, -1/INT.If it was 1.03, I would hang onto it, weather the year of degraded QB play, and be confident of adding a quality starter who would contribute soon enough to make a difference.But I see a drop after 1.03 and am uncertain.I currently have Don Brown, Beanie Wells, Jerome Harrison a RB. Gates at TE. Fitz, Steve Smith (CAR), and Crabby to start at WR with PPR.One issue I have is that I am not sure I am strong enough at RB or can get a good one in free agent auction to make a meaningful run this year, and next year (when Ben would be productive again) only if Brown starts getting the lion's share of RB work in Indy. Then again, for this year at least J. Harrison might be effective enough and I should be strong at WR to cover some.And who would I take at 1.04 anyway with Bryant, Mathews, and Best off the board. I like Spiller some , but not sure when he will be the lead back and I feel like I have a limited window. Hardesty is where I had been leaning before getting the trade offer.So please forgive the assistant coach request, but I would welcome some thoughts.

I'd jump on that deal. I think Rodgers will significantly out-perform Ben over the next 3-4 years. With that scoring format, he's a difference maker. Enough to justify trading away 1.04.With a PPR league, my guess is that the top 3 picks are Matthews, Bryant, and Best. That leaves you with Spiller. Over the next 3-4 years, how many times will Spiller be considered a starter? My guess is that he's outside the top 24 (assume you start 2 RB) this year. Maybe even next year too. Getting two or three startable years out of Spiller starting in 2011 is not that much to give up for Rodgers.I think you can find a RB on the wire. And I think you'll find that Rodgers is so valuable, that you can trade him for more later if you decide you still need to upgrade at RB.

 

[Go deep]

First time ever asking for advice, but I am really undecided and would welcome input from y'all.I have a trade offer to me giving me A. Rodgers for Big Ben and the 1.04 rookie pick. It is a contract league, not dynasty, but most relevant contracts are 3 or 4 years. 5 pt per thrown TD, -1/INT.If it was 1.03, I would hang onto it, weather the year of degraded QB play, and be confident of adding a quality starter who would contribute soon enough to make a difference.But I see a drop after 1.03 and am uncertain.I currently have Don Brown, Beanie Wells, Jerome Harrison a RB. Gates at TE. Fitz, Steve Smith (CAR), and Crabby to start at WR with PPR.One issue I have is that I am not sure I am strong enough at RB or can get a good one in free agent auction to make a meaningful run this year, and next year (when Ben would be productive again) only if Brown starts getting the lion's share of RB work in Indy. Then again, for this year at least J. Harrison might be effective enough and I should be strong at WR to cover some.And who would I take at 1.04 anyway with Bryant, Mathews, and Best off the board. I like Spiller some , but not sure when he will be the lead back and I feel like I have a limited window. Hardesty is where I had been leaning before getting the trade offer.So please forgive the assistant coach request, but I would welcome some thoughts.

I wouldnt hesitate to accept that deal. It's getting a top 15 pick for #50 and #100 in a startup.

You think Big Ben wouldnt come off the board until the 9th round in a dynasty start-up?

Maybe even later. He's QB14 in the latest dynasty rankings.

We are discussing whether or not to take a QB in a start-up dynasty draft. Being able to get Big Ben in round 9 or later is even more of a reason i would never draft a QB in round 1. I highly doubt he would make it that far however. He wouldnt in any draft i was in anyway.

 

[Go deep]

First time ever asking for advice, but I am really undecided and would welcome input from y'all.I have a trade offer to me giving me A. Rodgers for Big Ben and the 1.04 rookie pick. It is a contract league, not dynasty, but most relevant contracts are 3 or 4 years. 5 pt per thrown TD, -1/INT.If it was 1.03, I would hang onto it, weather the year of degraded QB play, and be confident of adding a quality starter who would contribute soon enough to make a difference.But I see a drop after 1.03 and am uncertain.I currently have Don Brown, Beanie Wells, Jerome Harrison a RB. Gates at TE. Fitz, Steve Smith (CAR), and Crabby to start at WR with PPR.One issue I have is that I am not sure I am strong enough at RB or can get a good one in free agent auction to make a meaningful run this year, and next year (when Ben would be productive again) only if Brown starts getting the lion's share of RB work in Indy. Then again, for this year at least J. Harrison might be effective enough and I should be strong at WR to cover some.And who would I take at 1.04 anyway with Bryant, Mathews, and Best off the board. I like Spiller some , but not sure when he will be the lead back and I feel like I have a limited window. Hardesty is where I had been leaning before getting the trade offer.So please forgive the assistant coach request, but I would welcome some thoughts.

I wouldnt hesitate to accept that deal. It's getting a top 15 pick for #50 and #100 in a startup.

You think Big Ben wouldnt come off the board until the 9th round in a dynasty start-up?

Maybe even later. He's QB14 in the latest dynasty rankings.

We are discussing whether or not to take a QB in a start-up dynasty draft. Being able to get Big Ben in round 9 or later is even more of a reason i would never draft a QB in round 1. I highly doubt he would make it that far however. He wouldnt in any draft i was in anyway.

ETA, i noticed that two of the staff members have Ben ranked #8. You only need one of twelve owners in a league to like Big Ben for him to go before the 9th round. Would anyone really take Vince Young, Fred Jackson or Lee Evans over him?

 

[HenryMuto]

I got a high stakes Dynasty start up draft starting in the next week or so. I may check in on your guys expertise on a few picks here and there. Cost was $1,000 to get in and is PPR with 1.5 TE. TE's will fly off the board. Is Finley worth a late 1st/early 2nd round pick ?You get 2 flex spots in this league so you can actually play 3 TE's if u get 3 decent ones.With the 1.5 PPR they go awfully fast.Or do you sit back and grab elite RB's and WR's while others gobble up the TE's ?This is a league like I have never been in before. 2 Flex and 1.5 TE PPR those are 2 new things to me and I been around, this is my 21st year.I am guessing the top 4 RB's go in some order 1-4. AJ, Fitz and Calvin sure to follow along with possibly Rodgers some where in the mix.Then people start looking at TE from the other drafts I have seen.So thoughts ?

What do the other positions get for receptions?

1 pt for RB/WR and 1.5 for TEStarting line up requirements1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 DF (2 flex)So you can go up to 4 RB, 4 WR, 3 TE

 

[Go deep]

I got a high stakes Dynasty start up draft starting in the next week or so. I may check in on your guys expertise on a few picks here and there. Cost was $1,000 to get in and is PPR with 1.5 TE. TE's will fly off the board. Is Finley worth a late 1st/early 2nd round pick ?You get 2 flex spots in this league so you can actually play 3 TE's if u get 3 decent ones.With the 1.5 PPR they go awfully fast.Or do you sit back and grab elite RB's and WR's while others gobble up the TE's ?This is a league like I have never been in before. 2 Flex and 1.5 TE PPR those are 2 new things to me and I been around, this is my 21st year.I am guessing the top 4 RB's go in some order 1-4. AJ, Fitz and Calvin sure to follow along with possibly Rodgers some where in the mix.Then people start looking at TE from the other drafts I have seen.So thoughts ?

What do the other positions get for receptions?

1 pt for RB/WR and 1.5 for TEStarting line up requirements1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 DF (2 flex)So you can go up to 4 RB, 4 WR, 3 TE

I dont think an extra half point for TE's would be enough for me to take one in the first round. Is this a 12 team league? If so, i would stockpile my RB's and WR's while everyone reaches for QB's and TE's in the first few rounds. Unless of course a QB or TE slodes further than he should, which i doubt will happen by the sounds of it.

 

[kegtron]

I got a high stakes Dynasty start up draft starting in the next week or so. I may check in on your guys expertise on a few picks here and there. Cost was $1,000 to get in and is PPR with 1.5 TE. TE's will fly off the board. Is Finley worth a late 1st/early 2nd round pick ?You get 2 flex spots in this league so you can actually play 3 TE's if u get 3 decent ones.With the 1.5 PPR they go awfully fast.Or do you sit back and grab elite RB's and WR's while others gobble up the TE's ?This is a league like I have never been in before. 2 Flex and 1.5 TE PPR those are 2 new things to me and I been around, this is my 21st year.I am guessing the top 4 RB's go in some order 1-4. AJ, Fitz and Calvin sure to follow along with possibly Rodgers some where in the mix.Then people start looking at TE from the other drafts I have seen.So thoughts ?

What do the other positions get for receptions?

1 pt for RB/WR and 1.5 for TEStarting line up requirements1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 DF (2 flex)So you can go up to 4 RB, 4 WR, 3 TE

I'm in a league with the exact same scoring + lineups. Finley went early in the 3rd, and was the first TE taken (Vernon Davis was the next pick). That started a run on TE (8 taken in the next 2 rounds). The first round went in the order you listed. I think most people play it conservative when the stakes are higher.

 

[pep1285]

Im on Deck in a 16-Team PPR Dynasty and I would like your guys opinions on who I should take. I am leaning toward WR because we must start 3 possibly 4 of them and they tend to last longer, but I also could go RB with guys like Harrison, Michael Bush, and Carnell Williams still avaliable. I have it down to a couple WRs also that I could pick but I am not in love with any of them. Possible WRs I could take are: Braylon Edwards, Breaston, Aromashodu, Doucet, and Knox. Again I am leaning toward a WR but would like your opinion on which position I should take.

Thanks for your help