Dynasty Rankings (3 Viewers)

[Concept Coop]

First time Morris has a critical fumble there will be someone else in there looking equally tempting to the inexperienced eye, even if it's a guy Shanahan signs off of the street.BTW, dismissing a guy totally <> saying he isn't a reason to trade the overall best player in FF.

You are attributing a statement to me that I did not make. If you read what I said, I never faulted or questioned anyone for not accepting a Morris+ deal for Foster.But claiming the guy is worth a future 3rd, and nothing more, is very clearly dismissing a guy totally. Morris is legit, in my opinion. Because of his draft spot, it will take people time to acknowledge that, assuming I'm right. I understand that.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Who would want to buy McFadden? :X

I do, for the right price. Not sure why anyone who saw him play in 2010 and 2011 wouldn't feel the same.

Me too. Unfortunately his owners in my leagues aren't taking less than RB1 value for him. Nor should they.

 

[Concept Coop]

Another way to look at things - how much more valuable is Arian Foster than Jimmy Graham and why? The major answer is immediate production at the more difficult position to fill (RB). Alfred Morris offsets that.

Assuming you only think Morris is a RB1 for the rest of this year, next year:

Foster is now a 27 year old RB, on the wrong side of the baseline age for productive RBs. Graham is a 27 YO TE with 6 years left.

Not only did you get a boost this season (I would have to double check the top 200 moving forward, but I think Graham/Morris is more valuable than Foster/Roster spot, this year) but next year, the value gap between Foster and Graham is much less, IF it exists.

Now - lets say Morris wins the job next year and can provide just ONE more season of RB1 production. The following year:

Foster is a now a 28 year old RB coming off 4 seasons with major touches. The likelihood of him being more valuable than the historically elite TE is less than 50/50.

And Morris is the wildcard in both scenarios; not the major piece to the trade. And you can replace Graham with the younger Gronk/Green/Julio and the exercise is much more telling.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

It's a coin flip that Alfred Morris is still starting 2 weeks from now, much less in two years. And even if he is, the 15 - 16 PPG he'll give you is a ton behind the 24ish Foster has averaged since taking over.

 

[Concept Coop]

It's a coin flip that Alfred Morris is still starting 2 weeks from now, much less in two years. And even if he is, the 15 - 16 PPG he'll give you is a ton behind the 24ish Foster has averaged since taking over.

Morris is at 15, Foster is 18 in my Standard league. Previously, I mentioned valuing Morris top 15 in standard formats. And I'll give you 2 to 1 odds on your two week wager. Beers($3.50 + $1 tip)?

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Not a huge fan of message board bets, but if I were, I'd lay massive odds on an Alfred Morris finishing top 15 in any format this year.

 

[Concept Coop]

Not a huge fan of message board bets, but if I were, I'd lay massive odds on an Alfred Morris finishing top 15 in any format this year.

He would have to get hurt or benched for it not to happen. He already has a very big head start, still has favorable matchups, and gets major touches. I'll simply say taht if you were, I'd give take you up on it.And I guess we can move on and see what happens.

 

[MAC_32]

I also would have missed on the dozens of Denver and Washington backs that had 1-4 good games then, nothing.

I am confused here - do those dozens have negative value? How do did you value Foster after his first season? What in addition to a future 3rd would you have given for him?

As a general rule, unless I am completely enthralled with the talent, I do not roster Shannahan RB's in dynasty's - usually redraft's too. If I happen to have one I probably won't be able to trade them for anything of value so I'll just enjoy the ride while they're the hot hand, if I can get something of value I'll absolutely consider it because it doesn't take much for that guy to all of a sudden have zero value at the drop of the hat, especially if they don't have a pedigree like in Morris' case. It's just a headache I'd rather not deal with, I value perceived certainty in my dynasty teams, especially with starters. I like to have confidence my core stays intact then throw darts at prospects I feel strongly can earn a starting job, as those darts hit I look to sell my veteran starters to get younger then throw more darts. This strategy usually keeps my teams competitive while also stock piling for the future, my one non-playoff year was last year when Gates got hurt and Rivers + Chris Johnson sucked loudly, and I was still in it until the last week because I had depth to plug those holes.Arian? I bought into the drivel Tennessee spoon fed NFL teams when Foster came out - he had a bad head for the game, didn't put in the work, and was raw from a football IQ standpoint. Foster has proven all of those guys as liars, good for him - wish I'd have listened too.0

 

[MAC_32]

But claiming the guy is worth a future 3rd, and nothing more, is very clearly dismissing a guy totally.

I should qualify, a 3rd in my dyno's has value because we use IDP's - the 3rd is usually littered with LB's (all but 3), tier 2 WR's and TE's (Criner, Sanu, D Allen), tier 3 RB's (Pierce, Turbin), stud IDP's at non LB positions, and non top 5 QB's (Tannehill).Still, it's just a dart throw on a guy you like, but that's how I see Morris - a dart throw, I'm not high on him long term but also understand he has an opportunity right now so if I needed filler I'd sacrifice a dart for a better shotthis year.

 

[MAC_32]

It's a coin flip that Alfred Morris is still starting 2 weeks from now, much less in two years. And even if he is, the 15 - 16 PPG he'll give you is a ton behind the 24ish Foster has averaged since taking over.

Morris is at 15, Foster is 18 in my Standard league. Previously, I mentioned valuing Morris top 15 in standard formats. And I'll give you 2 to 1 odds on your two week wager. Beers($3.50 + $1 tip)?

At this time last year Ben Tate was a top 10 back too, it's early - a lot can and will happen. Kudos to you to being ahead of the curve and getting Morris before the rush got to him, but there's a reason why the rush didn't get to him first and why his name is not a hot one to toss around - we don't believe in him. Right now I'd rather pitch an offer to a disgruntled LeShoure or Ryan Williams owner than Morris, I don't see either of them as top 15 backs but I think they could be. I am more confident in them bouncing back than I am Morris maintaining. Additionally, I think they stand a stronger chance of retaining the job next year.

 

[MAC_32]

Not a huge fan of message board bets, but if I were, I'd lay massive odds on an Alfred Morris finishing top 15 in any format this year.

He would have to get hurt or benched for it not to happen. He already has a very big head start, still has favorable matchups, and gets major touches. I'll simply say taht if you were, I'd give take you up on it.

And I guess we can move on and see what happens.

Bolded the key words, we think there's a greater risk in that than you do.

 

[squistion]

Who would want to buy McFadden? :X

I do, for the right price. Not sure why anyone who saw him play in 2010 and 2011 wouldn't feel the same.

I'm not convinced the same guy is out there in 2012.

Same guy but he is now in a zone blocking scheme that he is not well suited for. He will either adapt to the zone blocking, or (more likely IMO) the Raiders will modify the zone blocking to suit his strenghts. In any event, it will eventually be sorted out, but DMC owners may have some poor fantasy weeks in the meantime.

 

[EBF]

There is a HUGE difference between reasonable expectations for Foster and Richardson for the forseeable future.

News to me. I think you overrate Foster and underrate Richardson. There's a reason why some of the pro scouts had him rated as the best player in the entire draft class (which also included prospects like Luck and Griffin). The guy is a freak and an unreal talent. The best RB prospect I have seen in the ~10 years I've been following the draft closely. I don't expect you to agree, but for me Richardson >> Foster in real life and in dynasty FF, and it's not that close. But you're a massive Foster fan (I remember from some earlier debates about Foster/Tate) and I'm a huge Richardson fan. I don't expect either of us to change our minds, so there's little point in dragging it out.

 

[Time Kibitzer]

I really don't get the idea of trading Foster away; only way I can see it making sense is if you have no chance of winning your league this year. And even in that case, unless I'm getting one of Trent Richardson/Calvin Johnson/AJ Green/Julio Jones with another piece, I'm not making the deal.

 

[Instinctive]

I really don't get the idea of trading Foster away; only way I can see it making sense is if you have no chance of winning your league this year. And even in that case, unless I'm getting one of Trent Richardson/Calvin Johnson/AJ Green/Julio Jones with another piece, I'm not making the deal.

I think that's the point. People are saying you can get that type of return on him, and that you should.

 

[Max Power]

I really don't get the idea of trading Foster away; only way I can see it making sense is if you have no chance of winning your league this year. And even in that case, unless I'm getting one of Trent Richardson/Calvin Johnson/AJ Green/Julio Jones with another piece, I'm not making the deal.

I think that's the point. People are saying you can get that type of return on him, and that you should.

I think it all depends on what you consider "another piece" to be. Anyone whos not in a win-now mode, isn't going to trade a superstud along with another gamebreaking for Foster. Speaking as an AJ Green owner, you'd be giving me something with Foster for him.

 

[EBF]

I really don't get the idea of trading Foster away; only way I can see it making sense is if you have no chance of winning your league this year. And even in that case, unless I'm getting one of Trent Richardson/Calvin Johnson/AJ Green/Julio Jones with another piece, I'm not making the deal.

On that note, a 100% Demaryius Thomas is right up there with Julio and Green for me. He's only 6 months older than Green and 13 months older than Julio. Every bit the talent, IMO. Doesn't have the hands or pure receiving skills of Green, but is probably the best size/strength/mobility combination playing WR in the NFL right now besides Calvin. Calvin is faster, but Thomas is probably more agile. He's officially on my "untradeable" list now.

 

[flc735]

I really don't get the idea of trading Foster away; only way I can see it making sense is if you have no chance of winning your league this year. And even in that case, unless I'm getting one of Trent Richardson/Calvin Johnson/AJ Green/Julio Jones with another piece, I'm not making the deal.

On that note, a 100% Demaryius Thomas is right up there with Julio and Green for me. He's only 6 months older than Green and 13 months older than Julio. Every bit the talent, IMO. Doesn't have the hands or pure receiving skills of Green, but is probably the best size/strength/mobility combination playing WR in the NFL right now besides Calvin. Calvin is faster, but Thomas is probably more agile. He's officially on my "untradeable" list now.

he is injury prone. don't forget about that.i moved him over the offseason (post peyton) because of that. thomas and picks for mathews. still happy with that deal, just not as much.

 

[Time Kibitzer]

I really don't get the idea of trading Foster away; only way I can see it making sense is if you have no chance of winning your league this year. And even in that case, unless I'm getting one of Trent Richardson/Calvin Johnson/AJ Green/Julio Jones with another piece, I'm not making the deal.

I think that's the point. People are saying you can get that type of return on him, and that you should.

And I'm saying if there's any chance of me being able to win my league this year, then I wouldn't trade Foster for any of those guys. Even in a dynasty league, if I think I can win the league this year, then I wouldn't trade the #1 redraft player away for anything.

 

[Time Kibitzer]

I really don't get the idea of trading Foster away; only way I can see it making sense is if you have no chance of winning your league this year. And even in that case, unless I'm getting one of Trent Richardson/Calvin Johnson/AJ Green/Julio Jones with another piece, I'm not making the deal.

On that note, a 100% Demaryius Thomas is right up there with Julio and Green for me. He's only 6 months older than Green and 13 months older than Julio. Every bit the talent, IMO. Doesn't have the hands or pure receiving skills of Green, but is probably the best size/strength/mobility combination playing WR in the NFL right now besides Calvin. Calvin is faster, but Thomas is probably more agile. He's officially on my "untradeable" list now.

I like him more than most, but his injury history and occasional easy drops worry me enough to not put him in the Calvin/AJ Green/Julio tier.

 

[Donsmith753]

I seem to have a problem when it comes to dynasty FF and I just can't get past it.

I'm completely unable to properly value RBs and always end up neglecting them when it comes to building my rosters.

I exclusively play in PPR so that maybe has an affect but in all of my leagues I'll try to sort QB and load up on WRs. Even in leagues where I have a strong roster I have trouble pulling the trigger on RBS because I always feel that a WR or QB will last so much longer that it doesn't make sense.

I've only really made one trade of any note for a RB giving a future first for Jamaal Charles last year.

It's become a problem in one particular league where I've got a really great squad, 2 Stud QBs, multiple strong WRs and a Stud TE. My Rbs are by no means terrible but I either drafted them in the startup or gave up very little for them.

Anyone else have this problem? Am I crazy?

 

[Coeur de Lion]

There is a HUGE difference between reasonable expectations for Foster and Richardson for the forseeable future.

News to me. I think you overrate Foster and underrate Richardson. There's a reason why some of the pro scouts had him rated as the best player in the entire draft class (which also included prospects like Luck and Griffin). The guy is a freak and an unreal talent. The best RB prospect I have seen in the ~10 years I've been following the draft closely. I don't expect you to agree, but for me Richardson >> Foster in real life and in dynasty FF, and it's not that close. But you're a massive Foster fan (I remember from some earlier debates about Foster/Tate) and I'm a huge Richardson fan. I don't expect either of us to change our minds, so there's little point in dragging it out.

Actually I'm not a particular fan of Foster at all. Never owned him in any dynasty league. More a fan of 25 PPG and winning titles.

 

[DoubleG]

I seem to have a problem when it comes to dynasty FF and I just can't get past it.I'm completely unable to properly value RBs and always end up neglecting them when it comes to building my rosters.I exclusively play in PPR so that maybe has an affect but in all of my leagues I'll try to sort QB and load up on WRs. Even in leagues where I have a strong roster I have trouble pulling the trigger on RBS because I always feel that a WR or QB will last so much longer that it doesn't make sense.I've only really made one trade of any note for a RB giving a future first for Jamaal Charles last year.It's become a problem in one particular league where I've got a really great squad, 2 Stud QBs, multiple strong WRs and a Stud TE. My Rbs are by no means terrible but I either drafted them in the startup or gave up very little for them.Anyone else have this problem? Am I crazy?

Ummm...yes. And I've won 3 titles in the last 8 years because of it in one league - and am currently 4-0. What I mean to say is, depending on scoring on roster reqs., focussing on QB/WR can sometimes work in your favor. There are several reason that is/might be the case:1) In the league I'm in, we start 3 WRs and only 2 RBs (no flex) - so WR quality and depth are crucial. The scoring is also slightly tilted toward QBs, imho - so a very good to great QB gives you a solid base.2) If everyone else in your league is focussing on RBs, that leaves more nice WRs for you. 3) As you have already noted, top WRs and QBs play longer and tend to be a little more consistant due to the way RBs get dinged up, share RBBC, etc.

 

[Donsmith753]

I seem to have a problem when it comes to dynasty FF and I just can't get past it.I'm completely unable to properly value RBs and always end up neglecting them when it comes to building my rosters.I exclusively play in PPR so that maybe has an affect but in all of my leagues I'll try to sort QB and load up on WRs. Even in leagues where I have a strong roster I have trouble pulling the trigger on RBS because I always feel that a WR or QB will last so much longer that it doesn't make sense.I've only really made one trade of any note for a RB giving a future first for Jamaal Charles last year.It's become a problem in one particular league where I've got a really great squad, 2 Stud QBs, multiple strong WRs and a Stud TE. My Rbs are by no means terrible but I either drafted them in the startup or gave up very little for them.Anyone else have this problem? Am I crazy?

Ummm...yes. And I've won 3 titles in the last 8 years because of it in one league - and am currently 4-0. What I mean to say is, depending on scoring on roster reqs., focussing on QB/WR can sometimes work in your favor. There are several reason that is/might be the case:1) In the league I'm in, we start 3 WRs and only 2 RBs (no flex) - so WR quality and depth are crucial. The scoring is also slightly tilted toward QBs, imho - so a very good to great QB gives you a solid base.2) If everyone else in your league is focussing on RBs, that leaves more nice WRs for you. 3) As you have already noted, top WRs and QBs play longer and tend to be a little more consistant due to the way RBs get dinged up, share RBBC, etc.

Yeah I won last year so it's not like I'm doing anything wrong and you're probably right it's the setup (16 teams, can start up to 4 WRs) but I just can't seem to pull the trigger on a deal for a stud RB.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Foster has a good chance to score right on par with him for the next 2-3 years, but Richardson has the better career outlook. He's a young guy. Only 21 years old. That's a big factor in his favor from a dynasty standpoint. Starting a team from scratch in a vacuum, I would much rather have him than a guy like Foster. Foster might have more value if you're convinced that the difference in ppg between the two can put you over the top this year.

Foster is RB2-RB5 in most of my leagues. Richardson about RB5-RB7. The difference isn't huge, and I think what we're seeing represents the floor of what a healthy Richardson will produce. The guy is a Peterson/Ricky/Edge/LT type of talent. Nowhere to go but up as Cleveland continues to add supporting pieces, assuming that Trent can stay healthy. My only concern with him is his knee problems, but they seem minor.

Richardson is the clear dynasty RB1 for me. You wait another year and you likely won't be able to move a Rice or Foster for him, though those guys offer a slight edge in production in the short term.

There is a HUGE difference between reasonable expectations for Foster and Richardson for the forseeable future. Richardson has played well, but there isn't much chance he continues to score a TD per game over an extended period barring a major turnaround in Cleveland, which ain't comin any time soon. The current regime is totally lame duck, and they'll be starting from scratch yet again this offseason. Foster WILL win people leagues right now for the next few years. Richardson MIGHT if things go well in Cleveland.

Richardson is the foundation of this franchise even after whatever changes are made at the top, the new guys whoever they are will build around him. And there's no reason to believe Richardson can't maintain his TD/game rate. He is that offense, so in the red zone his number will be called.

Of course he'll be featured regardless, but he's not going to be a 16 TD / year player if the offense continues to score 20 - 25 total TDs per year. Nor is he going to be a 2000+ total yard threat at sub 4 YPC facing 8 in the box and running behind a line with only 2 NFL starting level players.

His YPC will go up once our idiot coach is fired and the new guy comes in and gives him 20-25 carries/game. His style provides the most value once he's killed the defenses will and our idiot coach gives up on the run game before we get to that point. Given 22 carries/game he's a 90-110 yard player, his last 5-10 will be closer to 6 ypc instead of 3.And it would not surprise me at all if he scores more than half of our TD's this year, there are not other weapons and Richardson has shown that even with defenses scheming against him once in deep I can score anyway.

Even if the new front office / coaching staff are top shelf (which, given the history of the franchise, is a massive if) they are multiple draft / FA classes away from even mediocrity offensively, IMO, much less being a really good offense that can produce a 2000 YFS and / or 20 TD true difference making fantasy RB1.

Disagree, I think Geno Smith may be able to solve everything, and quickly. Worst case would be our WR corps being so awful that we have to wait until 2014 and pick up a Marquise Lee or Sammy Watkins type before he becomes elite. In the meantime you can still expect solid RB1 numbers. Not 2000 yards and 20 TD's, but 1500 yards and 15 TD's? I see it.

Do you really think the Browns will spend a first round pick on a QB two years in a row?

 

[MAC_32]

Foster has a good chance to score right on par with him for the next 2-3 years, but Richardson has the better career outlook. He's a young guy. Only 21 years old. That's a big factor in his favor from a dynasty standpoint. Starting a team from scratch in a vacuum, I would much rather have him than a guy like Foster. Foster might have more value if you're convinced that the difference in ppg between the two can put you over the top this year.

Foster is RB2-RB5 in most of my leagues. Richardson about RB5-RB7. The difference isn't huge, and I think what we're seeing represents the floor of what a healthy Richardson will produce. The guy is a Peterson/Ricky/Edge/LT type of talent. Nowhere to go but up as Cleveland continues to add supporting pieces, assuming that Trent can stay healthy. My only concern with him is his knee problems, but they seem minor.

Richardson is the clear dynasty RB1 for me. You wait another year and you likely won't be able to move a Rice or Foster for him, though those guys offer a slight edge in production in the short term.

There is a HUGE difference between reasonable expectations for Foster and Richardson for the forseeable future. Richardson has played well, but there isn't much chance he continues to score a TD per game over an extended period barring a major turnaround in Cleveland, which ain't comin any time soon. The current regime is totally lame duck, and they'll be starting from scratch yet again this offseason. Foster WILL win people leagues right now for the next few years. Richardson MIGHT if things go well in Cleveland.

Richardson is the foundation of this franchise even after whatever changes are made at the top, the new guys whoever they are will build around him. And there's no reason to believe Richardson can't maintain his TD/game rate. He is that offense, so in the red zone his number will be called.

Of course he'll be featured regardless, but he's not going to be a 16 TD / year player if the offense continues to score 20 - 25 total TDs per year. Nor is he going to be a 2000+ total yard threat at sub 4 YPC facing 8 in the box and running behind a line with only 2 NFL starting level players.

His YPC will go up once our idiot coach is fired and the new guy comes in and gives him 20-25 carries/game. His style provides the most value once he's killed the defenses will and our idiot coach gives up on the run game before we get to that point. Given 22 carries/game he's a 90-110 yard player, his last 5-10 will be closer to 6 ypc instead of 3.And it would not surprise me at all if he scores more than half of our TD's this year, there are not other weapons and Richardson has shown that even with defenses scheming against him once in deep I can score anyway.

Even if the new front office / coaching staff are top shelf (which, given the history of the franchise, is a massive if) they are multiple draft / FA classes away from even mediocrity offensively, IMO, much less being a really good offense that can produce a 2000 YFS and / or 20 TD true difference making fantasy RB1.

Disagree, I think Geno Smith may be able to solve everything, and quickly. Worst case would be our WR corps being so awful that we have to wait until 2014 and pick up a Marquise Lee or Sammy Watkins type before he becomes elite. In the meantime you can still expect solid RB1 numbers. Not 2000 yards and 20 TD's, but 1500 yards and 15 TD's? I see it.

Do you really think the Browns will spend a first round pick on a QB two years in a row?

Given the pending ownership change, if we're in the top 3 again, yes. I did not expect it until Lerner sold the team, but that changed the entire playing field since if the team doesn't produce this year a house cleaning is likely coming and with a house cleaning usually comes a new QB.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Do you really think the Browns will spend a first round pick on a QB two years in a row?

If they're smart they will. Of course if they were smart they wouldn't have taken Weeden this year, so...

 

[Concept Coop]

It's a coin flip that Alfred Morris is still starting 2 weeks from now, much less in two years. And even if he is, the 15 - 16 PPG he'll give you is a ton behind the 24ish Foster has averaged since taking over.

Morris is at 15, Foster is 18 in my Standard league. Previously, I mentioned valuing Morris top 15 in standard formats. And I'll give you 2 to 1 odds on your two week wager. Beers($3.50 + $1 tip)?

At this time last year Ben Tate was a top 10 back too, it's early - a lot can and will happen. Kudos to you to being ahead of the curve and getting Morris before the rush got to him, but there's a reason why the rush didn't get to him first and why his name is not a hot one to toss around - we don't believe in him. Right now I'd rather pitch an offer to a disgruntled LeShoure or Ryan Williams owner than Morris, I don't see either of them as top 15 backs but I think they could be. I am more confident in them bouncing back than I am Morris maintaining. Additionally, I think they stand a stronger chance of retaining the job next year.

A few things:The Ben Tate comparision is moot. Morris doesn't have the NFL's leading rusher recovering form a very minor injury on the bench. Let's be honest: The reason you or "the rush" never got to Morris, is because we didnt' know who he was; the same reason it will take many a year to start valuing him as they should. Williams IS the lead back right now, and doing nothing. Have fun with that. LeShoure is a bit of a better own, but the stars would need to align for him to be the weekly threat that Morris is, as of today.You keep claiming that he could be benched at any moment - why? Sure, his coach knows he can plug anyone in there and get results, but he has always been willing to ride one guy, when he can. And he is this year. And Morris is a hot name. Try acquiring him in your league and see what you get. I have been, and have been shot down again and again. He as been on Rotoworlds top 10 searched list often over the last month +. He is a top 5-7 RB in standard formats, and close to that in PPR. But I know I am not going to change your mind, if a 4 game sample of RB1 production hasn't.

 

[Crippler]

In both of my leagues, I worry about RB last. But it depends on league setup. I was in a league before that was 24 teams with PPR and I needed 0 RB to start and carried none. My 2 leagues right now are both 16 teams with 1 RB needed in PPR and extra point for TE. My home league we can start 2 PK per week and I am loaded everywhere but RB. Even PK I have Gostkowski, Crosby and Zuerlein. So you are not insane. It really matters league setup. I prefer to start 5 WR, 3 TE or 2 PK over 2 RB's in these dynasties. Just got to have 1 RB you can half depend on(McGahee is my guy) and a backup you cant points from on bye week.

 

[Concept Coop]

I exclusively play in PPR so that maybe has an affect but in all of my leagues I'll try to sort QB and load up on WRs. Even in leagues where I have a strong roster I have trouble pulling the trigger on RBS because I always feel that a WR or QB will last so much longer that it doesn't make sense.

It depends on how many flex options you have.Just like re-draft, VBD applies to EVERYTHING that offers value. That includes injury risk, duration of career, turnover, etcetera. So, of there are no flex spots, it shouldn't matter that your WR will last longer than my RB. Your WR should be compared to the pool of WR, and his advantage over them should be compared to my RB's advantage over the RB field. People often create unbalanced rosters when they don't need to, hoping for an advantage 3-5 years down the road. That advantage doesn't always come, because of how fluid leagues are.I am not saying any one strategy doesn't work. A good owner can overcome a hole they put themselves in. But, sticking to one strategy, creating an unbalanced roster, and ignoring VBD is not wise.

 

[MAC_32]

Do you really think the Browns will spend a first round pick on a QB two years in a row?

If they're smart they will. Of course if they were smart they wouldn't have taken Weeden this year, so...

Use the 22 pick on a foundation piece, give Colt one more year, and if/when he flops go all-in for a QB this year - if the extra year in the system and improved weapons around him were what we needed go forward. Been my stance from the beginning and why the Weeden pick drove me up the wall. If it had been a 3rd or a 4th? Fine, but 1st?

 

[MAC_32]

Let's be honest: The reason you or "the rush" never got to Morris, is because we didnt' know who he was; the same reason it will take many a year to start valuing him as they should.

I knew who he was. Heard his name pop up periodically throughout last year and this offseason, obviously not frequently but I was aware of him and saw some of his highlights. I took notice when the Skins drafted him and had him queued up in the 6th round of my rookie draft, because that's how I value Shannahan RB's, but the guy in front of me took him. The Buzz had gotten a little too hot for him by the time my next dyno draft came along in August though and he went long before I was comfortable taking him. Haven't considered him in any of my re-drafts because I built my team so I wouldn't have to - my 4th RB was usually LeShoure and my 5th was usually Quizz.

You keep claiming that he could be benched at any moment - why? Sure, his coach knows he can plug anyone in there and get results, but he has always been willing to ride one guy, when he can. And he is this year.

Because one problem arises and his coach won't hesitate to make that move, same can't be said for dozens of other backs in the league.

And Morris is a hot name. Try acquiring him in your league and see what you get. I have been, and have been shot down again and again. He as been on Rotoworlds top 10 searched list often over the last month +. He is a top 5-7 RB in standard formats, and close to that in PPR.

I haven't because I see him as a #3, obviously his owners are leaning on him for more than that.

But I know I am not going to change your mind, if a 4 game sample of RB1 production hasn't.

Correct, it takes a bigger sample to change my mind in a case like this one. I function with a pick him up now, ask questions later philosophy with most out of nowhere waiver guys but not Shannahan RB's. I'm sure there are other exceptions too.

 

[Concept Coop]

Let's be honest: The reason you or "the rush" never got to Morris, is because we didnt' know who he was; the same reason it will take many a year to start valuing him as they should.

I knew who he was. Heard his name pop up periodically throughout last year and this offseason, obviously not frequently but I was aware of him and saw some of his highlights. I took notice when the Skins drafted him and had him queued up in the 6th round of my rookie draft, because that's how I value Shannahan RB's, but the guy in front of me took him. The Buzz had gotten a little too hot for him by the time my next dyno draft came along in August though and he went long before I was comfortable taking him. Haven't considered him in any of my re-drafts because I built my team so I wouldn't have to - my 4th RB was usually LeShoure and my 5th was usually Quizz.

You keep claiming that he could be benched at any moment - why? Sure, his coach knows he can plug anyone in there and get results, but he has always been willing to ride one guy, when he can. And he is this year.

Because one problem arises and his coach won't hesitate to make that move, same can't be said for dozens of other backs in the league.

And Morris is a hot name. Try acquiring him in your league and see what you get. I have been, and have been shot down again and again. He as been on Rotoworlds top 10 searched list often over the last month +. He is a top 5-7 RB in standard formats, and close to that in PPR.

I haven't because I see him as a #3, obviously his owners are leaning on him for more than that.

But I know I am not going to change your mind, if a 4 game sample of RB1 production hasn't.

Correct, it takes a bigger sample to change my mind in a case like this one. I function with a pick him up now, ask questions later philosophy with most out of nowhere waiver guys but not Shannahan RB's. I'm sure there are other exceptions too.

We shall see.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Do you really think the Browns will spend a first round pick on a QB two years in a row?

If they're smart they will. Of course if they were smart they wouldn't have taken Weeden this year, so...

Use the 22 pick on a foundation piece, give Colt one more year, and if/when he flops go all-in for a QB this year - if the extra year in the system and improved weapons around him were what we needed go forward. Been my stance from the beginning and why the Weeden pick drove me up the wall. If it had been a 3rd or a 4th? Fine, but 1st?

Not only that but I expect them to totally clean house again this offseason. taking a QB in first round (especially late first) isnt the death blow it used to be for a franchise under the new CBA.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Correct, it takes a bigger sample to change my mind in a case like this one. I function with a pick him up now, ask questions later philosophy with most out of nowhere waiver guys but not Shannahan RB's. I'm sure there are other exceptions too.

Bolded is the key for me. Is there a chance that I might miss out on the next Terrell Davis? Sure. But that also means I avoided over paying for guys like Ryan Torain, Evan Royster, Olandis Gary, Tatum Bell, and Quentin Griffin, all of whom were equally productive in short bursts in a Shanahan ground attack.Obviously even a very short window of production is worth a WW pickup or a later rookie pick, so nicely done to current Morris owners. But that isn't what we're talking about here. Valuing Alfred Morris as dynasty RB15 is completely ignoring the very real chance that he is Ryan Torain v 2.0.

Having watched the guy, I'm not blown away. I see nothing special, just a hard-nosed lunchpail kind of guy taking what's there in a good offense while adding zero as a receiver. Late 2010 Torain was actually more impressive IMO because he was providing essentially the same thing in a vastly inferior offense. Time will tell, but given the history, the percentages are pretty clear...

 

[Concept Coop]

Valuing Alfred Morris as dynasty RB15 is completely ignoring the very real chance that he is Ryan Torain v 2.0.

Not at all. ONLY treating a 23 year old starting RB producing top 5 numbers, is me acknowledging plenty of risk. Treating a 23 year old RB producing top 5 numbers as less than top 20 is completely ignoring the very real chance that he is Arian Foster v 2.0.

 

[Instinctive]

I really don't get the idea of trading Foster away; only way I can see it making sense is if you have no chance of winning your league this year. And even in that case, unless I'm getting one of Trent Richardson/Calvin Johnson/AJ Green/Julio Jones with another piece, I'm not making the deal.

I think that's the point. People are saying you can get that type of return on him, and that you should.

And I'm saying if there's any chance of me being able to win my league this year, then I wouldn't trade Foster for any of those guys. Even in a dynasty league, if I think I can win the league this year, then I wouldn't trade the #1 redraft player away for anything.

But you JUST SAID that you would. So would you, or no?

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Valuing Alfred Morris as dynasty RB15 is completely ignoring the very real chance that he is Ryan Torain v 2.0.

Not at all. ONLY treating a 23 year old starting RB producing top 5 numbers, is me acknowledging plenty of risk. Treating a 23 year old RB producing top 5 numbers as less than top 20 is completely ignoring the very real chance that he is Arian Foster v 2.0.

He's definitely not going to be Foster - a big part of Foster's value lies in his ability to contribute in the passing game. Morris has 1 catch for negative yardage on the year and Shanahan's RBs, even the true studs like TD, generally aren't used a ton as receivers.Another question: have you watched the guy at all and where does he rank on the eyeball test for you? I haven't seen every snap, but when I have watched him, he looked like just a guy to me.

 

[Concept Coop]

He's definitely not going to be Foster - a big part of Foster's value lies in his ability to contribute in the passing game. Morris has 1 catch for negative yardage on the year and Shanahan's RBs, even the true studs like TD, generally aren't used a ton as receivers.Another question: have you watched the guy at all and where does he rank on the eyeball test for you? I haven't seen every snap, but when I have watched him, he looked like just a guy to me.

I only bring up the Arian Foster name to counter the Ryan Torrain - he will likely fall somewhere in the middle. I have watched most of 2 games, and whatever comes up on the Redzone channel. He passes the eyeball test to me. I think he is talented enough to keep the job and produce while he has it. He is not an elite talent, but he fits the scheme perfectly. I don't think Shanny has any incentive to look for an upgrade right now. The thing is - all RBs outside of the top 10-12 have questions. Morris is more of a gamble than a most others in that range, but, due to age and situation, his upside is higher.Becuase I think Morris is exactly what Shanny wants in a back I have to at least take the upside into account. His upside is 5 more years of this. His downside is a full year of RB1 producion, winning many their leagues, then being thrown into competition again. I can live with that risk.

 

[forbidden doughnut]

Valuing Alfred Morris as dynasty RB15 is completely ignoring the very real chance that he is Ryan Torain v 2.0.

Not at all. ONLY treating a 23 year old starting RB producing top 5 numbers, is me acknowledging plenty of risk. Treating a 23 year old RB producing top 5 numbers as less than top 20 is completely ignoring the very real chance that he is Arian Foster v 2.0.

He's definitely not going to be Foster - a big part of Foster's value lies in his ability to contribute in the passing game. Morris has 1 catch for negative yardage on the year and Shanahan's RBs, even the true studs like TD, generally aren't used a ton as receivers.Another question: have you watched the guy at all and where does he rank on the eyeball test for you? I haven't seen every snap, but when I have watched him, he looked like just a guy to me.

While I think the Foster 2.0 comparison is a bit high, I have to say that I've been impressed. He's tough to bring down and rarely goes down at first contact. What he lacks in speed he makes up for with good footwork and decisive running. Best of all (at least for the Shanahans,) is that he has good ball security. The fact that the Shanahans rolled him out as a rookie starter (something they don't normally do) speaks to their confidence on him. I won't go so far as to say that something won't change, but I seriously doubt if he gets benched without an injury. It looks to me like he's done everything that the coaching staff has and could have asked for.

 

[belljr]

Sorry for theh awful question but where do people go for updated dynasty rankings besides FBG?

F&l are "old" as well as the spreadsheet that used to float around

 

[Concept Coop]

Sorry for theh awful question but where do people go for updated dynasty rankings besides FBG?F&l are "old" as well as the spreadsheet that used to float around

Dynastyrankings.net has some.F&L's are now at rotoworld.com, but you have to pay for them. A few posters share theirs in the forum, wiscaltmia, for example.

 

[Donsmith753]

Dynastyleaguefootball.com have some.

I occasionally dip in and I'm working on updating some just now. Will post a link when I'm finished so you can tear it apart

 

[MAC_32]

Sorry for theh awful question but where do people go for updated dynasty rankings besides FBG?F&l are "old" as well as the spreadsheet that used to float around

Here's some morehttp://www.fantasysharks.com/apps/bert/forecasts/rankings.php?Segment=1

 

[killrobotkill]

Sorry for theh awful question but where do people go for updated dynasty rankings besides FBG?F&l are "old" as well as the spreadsheet that used to float around

Here's some morehttp://www.fantasysharks.com/apps/bert/forecasts/rankings.php?Segment=1

Wow - FantasySharks' latest ranking from yesterday have Alfred Morris as RB31. I'm not sure I buy him as a top 10-12 guy yet, but RB31 is waaay too low.

 

[DoubleG]

Sorry for theh awful question but where do people go for updated dynasty rankings besides FBG?F&l are "old" as well as the spreadsheet that used to float around

Now you have touched on an interesting topic for discussion. Which is - how often should dynasty rankings be "updated"? That is to say, that some people are of the mindset that if dynasty rankings are updated every week or even once a month during the season, they tend to become reactionary rankings. To what degree that is accurately reflecting what the long term production will look like is the debate.Now obviously, when Ryan Williams went down last year, that should/could affect his dynasty rankings - but how much it affects his long term viability as a starting NFL RB is where the issue comes in - and how far out the given projections are claiming to represent.Some people do dynasty rankings that are very long term - 4+ years. In those rankings guys like Steve Smith or Cedric Benson are near the bottom.On the opposite side of the spectrum, some have posted "dynasty rankings" that really look nothing more than redraft rankings with rookies bumped up a few spots.I guess the point in all this being - if the dynasty rankings really reflect at least 2-3 years out, does 4 weeks really demand that those rankings change that significantly?

 

[EBF]

Sorry for theh awful question but where do people go for updated dynasty rankings besides FBG?F&l are "old" as well as the spreadsheet that used to float around

Here's some morehttp://www.fantasysharks.com/apps/bert/forecasts/rankings.php?Segment=1

Brees, Brady, and Stafford ahead of Newton, Griffin, and Luck.McFadden, Peterson, Forte, and Mathews ahead of Richardson.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

What are people's thoughts on Jonathan Stewart? He's a guy I have on almost all of my dynasty / keeper teams as I have long been a believer in his elite talent. Being realistic, though, Carolina is a major negative, both due to Williams and the offense they run. Stewart needs the lion's share of both the goal-line and receiving touches in order to be more than a mediocre flex in most leagues at this point, and I'm not super confident he'll get that anytime real soon.

Is now the time to take RB2 exit value? Obviously depends on team makeup quite a bit, but what are some general thoughts on Stewart's value?

 

[Donsmith753]

What are people's thoughts on Jonathan Stewart? He's a guy I have on almost all of my dynasty / keeper teams as I have long been a believer in his elite talent. Being realistic, though, Carolina is a major negative, both due to Williams and the offense they run. Stewart needs the lion's share of both the goal-line and receiving touches in order to be more than a mediocre flex in most leagues at this point, and I'm not super confident he'll get that anytime real soon.Is now the time to take RB2 exit value? Obviously depends on team makeup quite a bit, but what are some general thoughts on Stewart's value?

I'm an owner too and haven't considered getting off the bus as no one else in my league really values him. He's my RB3 so I'm sure that's affecting my decision.Sounding like a broken record but I still believe he'll get a full workload at some point and be what everyone knows he can.

 

[MAC_32]

Sorry for theh awful question but where do people go for updated dynasty rankings besides FBG?F&l are "old" as well as the spreadsheet that used to float around

Here's some morehttp://www.fantasysharks.com/apps/bert/forecasts/rankings.php?Segment=1

Wow - FantasySharks' latest ranking from yesterday have Alfred Morris as RB31. I'm not sure I buy him as a top 10-12 guy yet, but RB31 is waaay too low.

Who would you put him in front of?