Dynasty Rankings (25 Viewers)

[kutta]

Where do guys like Pead and Britt fit in?

Pead - 2nd round pick but stuck behind Stacy and Cunningham?

Britt - talented, had injuries, head case, drops every pass thrown his way.

On someone else's roster.

 

[jdoggydogg]

Watching a lot of Josh Gordon vs. Alshon Jeffery this year as they're both on my dynasty team. It seems obvious how raw Gordon is comparted to Jefferey. So how is Gordon getting it done? He doesn't run routes that well and he isn't the fastest guy on the field. So is he succeeding just on his ability to get serparation from defenders?

 

[Adam Harstad]

How about we go back to debating players and not posters?

As for Vereen, I've owned the guy since his rookie year. But I'm looking at this as an opportunity to sell to that "one guy" that would value him close to RB1 territory in my 0.5 PPR. It's taken murder, gutted WR corps, And fumblitis by every other RB rostered to produce this output. Is it going to last? Maybe, but I'm betting it won't at this level. Maturation by the WRs and the draft/FA can really change his value. He doesn't strike me as a talent that demands the ball. And as a long-time owner, I must admit I'm just waiting for him to get hurt again.

So I'm looking to sell while he's hot. Price tag is high RB2/low RB1. Below that, I'd rather keep him

I agree on all points.

As for that draft, there was a lot of awful picks. Some mock drafts are interesting, some are just jokes. I'd throw that one into the reject pile. Nobody is making those picks in a real league, they're just being clowns.

I think the DLF mocks always look off to the FBGs crew, and I suspect that if the thread regulars got together and did a mock, the guys on the DLF forums would be calling it joke and recommending they just consign it to the dustbin. Each separate ecosystem is its own little echo chamber. Every time we interact with people, we are influenced by them. Especially when we're interacting with people we have known a while, people we really respect. If Squistion came in here and said that he just LOVED Quinton Patton, thought the guy was a no-brainer top-12 dynasty WR, I'd listen. I wouldn't move him up to my top 12, but I'd definitely start paying attention. I might shade him up a bit just because of Squistion's endorsement. Maybe Concert Coop and wdcrob do the same. Maybe Thrifty sees me, Coop, and Rob moving Patton up our boards and decides to give him another look in case we're on to something. Maybe Thrifty likes what he sees and moves Patton up. Now I've seen Squistion touting Patton, and I've seen wdcrob and Coop and Thrifty all creeping him up their board, so I'm becoming even more convinced that there's something to it, and I slide him up even more, and then everyone else adjusts in response to my new movement. Eventually, just because one respected poster felt strongly about a player, everyone else's opinions became subtly affected in a self-reinforcing spiral. Meanwhile, the rest of the internet has no idea who Squistion is, so they remain blissfully unaware to the Quinton Patton bubble that is building in the FBGs Dynasty Thread.

That happens all over FBGs. As a staffer, I'm heavily influenced by other staffers I know and respect. As posters, we have our opinions shaped by our interactions with other posters we know and respect. Pretty soon, we get a nice little echo chamber going, where we as group become higher on certain players and lower on certain others than the consensus. Meanwhile, over on the DLF forums, or on Twitter, or anywhere else, different consensuses are being reached, different echo chambers are being formed, different players are sliding up and down draft boards based on self-reinforcing hype spirals.

When people from our little dynasty bubble look at player valuations that come from someone else's little dynasty bubble, it's going to look odd. It looks crazy to us to see Josh Gordon so high, because we aren't participating in the Twitter discussion where everyone's in a competition to rank Josh Gordon the highest, and we aren't particularly influenced by the DLF staff who is busy engaging in a Josh Gordon arms race. I somehow doubt that the guys in this thread would consider Gordon to be completely equal in value to Dez, Demaryius, Green, Julio, and Calvin, but that's reached the point of gospel in other corners, and where leaving Gordon off that list is as sacrilegious as leaving Julio off. So we see people take Gordon in the top 3 and we think that the guy's a whacko with views miles outside of the mainstream, when he's just a guy in a different bubble with views that are pretty common among his circles and pretty rare among ours.

Insofar as dynasty leagues often draw people from many different bubbles around the internet, crazy-looking mock drafts like these are still very valuable. I think the DLF mocks are a great way to find out what player value looks like outside of the Dynasty Superthread, even if the mocks look a little whacky to me.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

. If Squistion came in here and said that he just LOVED Quinton Patton, thought the guy was a no-brainer top-12 dynasty WR, I'd listen. I wouldn't move him up to my top 12, but I'd definitely start paying attention. I might shade him up a bit just because of Squistion's endorsement. Maybe Concert Coop and wdcrob do the same. Maybe Thrifty sees me, Coop, and Rob moving Patton up our boards and decides to give him another look in case we're on to something. Maybe Thrifty likes what he sees and moves Patton up. Now I've seen Squistion touting Patton, and I've seen wdcrob and Coop and Thrifty all creeping him up their board, so I'm becoming even more convinced that there's something to it, and I slide him up even more, and then everyone else adjusts in response to my new movement.

Virgil Green.

 

[Adam Harstad]

. If Squistion came in here and said that he just LOVED Quinton Patton, thought the guy was a no-brainer top-12 dynasty WR, I'd listen. I wouldn't move him up to my top 12, but I'd definitely start paying attention. I might shade him up a bit just because of Squistion's endorsement. Maybe Concert Coop and wdcrob do the same. Maybe Thrifty sees me, Coop, and Rob moving Patton up our boards and decides to give him another look in case we're on to something. Maybe Thrifty likes what he sees and moves Patton up. Now I've seen Squistion touting Patton, and I've seen wdcrob and Coop and Thrifty all creeping him up their board, so I'm becoming even more convinced that there's something to it, and I slide him up even more, and then everyone else adjusts in response to my new movement.

Virgil Green.

You know, I've been hearing his name come up a lot in this thread ever since late last season...

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

I suspect if everyone did their rankings like this:

Stud #1, #2, #3, etc

Non-stud FF Starter #1, #2, #3, etc

Elite prospect #1, #2, #3, etc

Other prospect #1, #2, #3, etc

Everyone else #1, #2, #3, etc

They'd look a lot more similar. It's the meshing of those groups into a single ranking that can make them radically different.

 

[thriftyrocker]

I think there would be a lot of disagreement on which bin most players belong.

 

[Adam Harstad]

I think there would be a lot of disagreement on which bin most players belong.

Agreed. I also think there would be a lot of players who don't really fit the bins, too. Is Justin Blackmon a stud? Is Andre Johnson? Is Danario Alexander a non-stud FF starter? Where do you put Tony Gonzalez? I think a lot of variance in rankings has to do with risk tolerance as much as (if not more than) talent evaluations. For instance, everyone agrees that Josh Gordon is a beast, it's just a question of how much weight you give to the fact that he's in stage 3 of the substance abuse program. Everyone knows that Roddy White is reliable when healthy, but how much do you downgrade him for his age? Everyone knows that Rob Gronkowski is a manchild who was put on this planet to score touchdowns, but how much do you downgrade him for his injury history?

 

[karmarooster]

Watching a lot of Josh Gordon vs. Alshon Jeffery this year as they're both on my dynasty team. It seems obvious how raw Gordon is comparted to Jefferey. So how is Gordon getting it done? He doesn't run routes that well and he isn't the fastest guy on the field. So is he succeeding just on his ability to get serparation from defenders?

I suspected it was due to increased targets for Gordon as the WR1, while Jeffery shares with Marshall. But in fact they are roughly similar so far: Gordon at 123 and Jeff at 127. Obviously Gordon IS getting more targets per game because his 123 has been accumulated over 2 fewer games as compared to Jeff.

So, it could be a combination of (1) Gordon's deep-ball skill set, where he just flies down the field despite not looking that fast (remember his comments this summer on how he's a long strider and it makes him look like he's slower than he really is), tracks the deep ball very well, and adjust to it very well, and (2) the Norv vertical offense as compared to Tressman's quicker-hitting scheme (assuming those characterizations of the offensive philosophies are accurate).

I suspect that if you flipped the players and put Gordon as the bears WR2 and Jeff as the Browns WR1, Jeff would have more production than he currently does, but would not match Gordon's YPR.

 

[EBF]

Moving forward, I'll probably rank players based primarily on their realistic ppg expectation with age being the second sorting variable. I used to believe that 5 years of +2 scoring differential were mathematically equivalent to one year of +10 scoring differential, but now I'm seeing how high scorers are exponentially more valuable and less replaceable than mediocrities, which is why I'm actually still fairly high on a guy like Blackmon despite his obvious issues. Yes, he is a big risk to flush his career down the toilet. On the other hand, when he's healthy and in the lineup he can mass points for you and give you a huge edge over your opponent's WR2/WR3. That makes him a lot more valuable to me than a dime-a-dozen depth guy like Mike Williams, Brian Hartline, and Greg Jennings, whose production can be replaced at any time with minimal expenditure. Obviously Andre Johnson and Tony Gonzalez have been studs for most of their careers. I would say Justin Blackmon is right in the middle between the merely useful players like Steve Johnson and the mega stars like Demaryius and VJax. More of a fringe WR1/high end WR2 for FF purposes. I'm a little less sold on Danario and since I don't personally believe he can stay healthy, I probably wouldn't bother with him despite his high ppg numbers over limited time periods.

To be clear, when I say that I rank players based on ppg, it isn't as simple as just looking at the league leaders on MFL. I try to make some attempt to control for situational factors in order to get a measure of the player's "real" ppg expectation. For example, I don't think Antonio Brown is really a 20 ppg receiver. Likewise, I don't think Cordarrelle Patterson is really a 5 ppg receiver. The numbers are a starting point to help you find the player's real level, which is where a lot of the "art" or skill of FF comes into play. Knowing when a great producer is actually a fluke, when a bad producer actually has a lot of talent, and so on.

Overall, I would say ppg is usually a pretty good indicator of talent though. Especially at WR and TE. At RB I think opportunity becomes a more significant variable. I believe that almost any RB who's good enough to make an NFL roster has a real chance to yield useful FF stats if thrust into the starting lineup. And with just 1 starting RB per team, it's easier to get blocked by another player on your own roster. Look at the Bears right now. Jeffery and Marshall are coexisting and producing. But if Jeffery had been a RB and not a WR, he'd probably still be stuck on the bench behind Forte. It's pretty easy for a RB to get stuck in a bad spot. Mucher harder at WR where 2-3 guys can get starter snaps. Add it all up and I think it's maybe a little easier for a RB's ppg to be a deceptive indicator of his true level compared with QB/WR/TE. You can't really manufacture elite QB production. Only elite QBs can perform at that level. However, lots of guys can put up stats at RB if they have the volume. So I tend to be a little less excited about average talent/high opportunity backs (i.e. Lacy, Bell, Stacy) and a little more forgiving of high talent/bad opportunity backs (i.e. Stewart, Michael, Pierce).

It is never going to black and white between sorting the great talents from the merely good or the pedestrian, but I think ppg will give you a good starting point and from there you can look at things like physical talent, draft position, usage, opportunity, and supporting cast to try to develop an accurate picture of a player's real long term ability.

 

[coolnerd]

I think there would be a lot of disagreement on which bin most players belong.

I think figuring the proper bin (tier) of a player is more important than the proper order. Probably harder to figure for some guys, but allows a Ff owner to draft and trade better than ordering in the "right" way.

 

[az_prof]

He's also the omega man on planet Stewart. Gotta adjust quicker than that.

If Vereen is a top 20 overall dynasty asset, then I agree he's overvalued. But his talent isn't a detriment to him being a long term asset.

I never said he was perfect. I'm just saying, if we're going to pretend that it's the worst thing in the world that he sometimes sticks to his opinions on a player long after those opinions become wildly unpopular, the least we can do is point out that sometimes he's right to do so. I don't think anyone has taken as much crap over any opinion as EBF has taken over McFadden. And EBF was right.

Will EBF be wrong about Vereen in the long run? Dunno. But he wasn't wrong about McFadden, and it's not fait accompli that he'll be wrong about Vereen. Changing your opinion once it becomes unpopular will certainly result in you having more popular opinions, but it doesn't always result in you having more correct opinions, and we shouldn't pretend otherwise. Let's stop bashing him for the fact that he doesn't always change his mind when the wind starts blowing strongly in another direction. In my mind, that's a commendable trait, not a character flaw.

As for the actual substance of his argument (rather than irrelevant discussions about his posting history), I thought EBF raised a pretty good point about Vereen's target total. 10+ targets a game ain't happening for the long term. I happen to think Ridley is a fantastic runner, so I don't see Vereen getting a huge chunk of the rushing pie unless Ridley leaves town (always a possibility). There's a good chance Vereen's production will be capped going forward by his one-dimensional role. That's not what I want out of a top-10 dynasty back.

About what particularly? He was right that DMC's low BMI would make him injury prone? OK, I will grant you that (although he still could do a Fred Taylor).

That Stewart and Mendenhall were better draft choices? Well, they have all been disappointing, so the jury is still out on that.

That DMC would be a complete failure in the NFL and a complete fantasy bust? No, he did have one good year in 2010 and I won two dynasty league championships on his back (one is in the league that EBF and I are in). So, although he has traditionally been a money losing proposition for his owners, he did have one good year, contrary to EBF's prediction of 100% failure.

I don't know what EBF was predicting back in 2008, and I don't care to look it up since it's irrelevant to the discussion at hand. The point isn't "all of EBF's initial calls are always 100% right, including the one about Darren McFadden". The point is that EBF takes a mountain of crap for sticking to his guns, and nobody acknowledges that sometimes he's right. AFTER Darren McFadden's huge year, when everyone and their mother was moving him into their top 10, EBF kept saying he didn't think McFadden could stay healthy and he thought McFadden was wildly overrated. And he took a mountain of crap for it. And he was right. What has McFadden given his owners since then? 7 great games in 2011, crappy RB2 numbers in 2012 (accompanied by all sorts of injury headaches), and a slow decline to irrelevance.

Now Shane Vereen has had a fantastic season, and everyone is jumping him way up in their rankings, and EBF is pumping the brakes on that hype train again, and people play the "EBF never learns and always sticks to his guns well beyond when it's obvious that he was wrong" card, when the most famous example of EBF sticking to his guns well beyond when it was obvious he was wrong was his Darren McFadden call post-breakout... when he was right.

Is EBF right about Vereen? Don't know. That's an interesting debate to have. But let's have it on the merits of his stance on Shane Vereen rather than trying to cast aspersions on his unwillingness to change his mind in the past when the biggest example people have trotted out of his unwillingness to change his mind happened to be a situation where EBF was ultimately right to not change his mind.

I'm not innocent, here. I gave him as much crap as anyone about Darren McFadden. I thought he was missing the boat completely. I was wrong. He was right. There have been calls that have gone the other way, too (remember when Jamaal Charles would never be a workhorse, EBF?). The point isn't that EBF is 100% accurate. The point is perhaps it's time to stop giving EBF grief over the fact that he sometimes sticks to his guns when we've got examples on the table of times when EBF was 100% right to stick to his guns, despite the entire world turning against him for it. If you think he's wrong, that's fine, but let's not pretend that he's just a biased, short-sighted fool who can't see the world changing around him when he sometimes clings to his old opinions even after those opinions become unpopular.

Well said SSOG. EBF has made a lot of positive contributions here and I have enjoyed his posts and learned from many of them. I don't understand why some people want to make the forum so personal. If you disagree, fine. Explain why and move on.

 

[squistion]

If Squistion came in here and said that he just LOVED Quinton Patton, thought the guy was a no-brainer top-12 dynasty WR, I'd listen. I wouldn't move him up to my top 12, but I'd definitely start paying attention.

I would certainly hope you would start paying attention, especially since he is part of that 4th round WR rookie gold mine

 

[jeter23]

I think there would be a lot of disagreement on which bin most players belong.

I think figuring the proper bin (tier) of a player is more important than the proper order. Probably harder to figure for some guys, but allows a Ff owner to draft and trade better than ordering in the "right" way.

 

[valhallan]

I agree with az_prof, SSOG, and EastBayFunk - enough with the personal vendettas. This community is nothing without guys willing to stick their neck out on an opinion. And indeed, this thread was built on that foundation.

We come here for opinion. Embrace and encourage it.

 

[jdoggydogg]

Watching a lot of Josh Gordon vs. Alshon Jeffery this year as they're both on my dynasty team. It seems obvious how raw Gordon is comparted to Jefferey. So how is Gordon getting it done? He doesn't run routes that well and he isn't the fastest guy on the field. So is he succeeding just on his ability to get serparation from defenders?

I suspected it was due to increased targets for Gordon as the WR1, while Jeffery shares with Marshall. But in fact they are roughly similar so far: Gordon at 123 and Jeff at 127. Obviously Gordon IS getting more targets per game because his 123 has been accumulated over 2 fewer games as compared to Jeff.

So, it could be a combination of (1) Gordon's deep-ball skill set, where he just flies down the field despite not looking that fast (remember his comments this summer on how he's a long strider and it makes him look like he's slower than he really is), tracks the deep ball very well, and adjust to it very well, and (2) the Norv vertical offense as compared to Tressman's quicker-hitting scheme (assuming those characterizations of the offensive philosophies are accurate).

I suspect that if you flipped the players and put Gordon as the bears WR2 and Jeff as the Browns WR1, Jeff would have more production than he currently does, but would not match Gordon's YPR.

I hear you. He seems to be putting up amazing numbers through sheer physical talent. Imagine Josh Gordon with two years of Larry Fitzgerald's receivers camp under his belt.

 

[jdoggydogg]

It occurs to me that Gronk's latest injury just upped the value of Jimmy Graham even more. Hard to find a position with such a disparity between the top two players and the rest of the field.

 

[Concept Coop]

It occurs to me that Gronk's latest injury just upped the value of Jimmy Graham even more. Hard to find a position with such a disparity between the top two players and the rest of the field.

I'm likely to the point where I'd take Graham over Gronk, after preferring Gronk at every previous stage. But I don't think the gap is big. If Gronk had hurt his back, or had more forearm issues, I'd be more worried. Freak injuries happen and that hit would have done the same to anyone. Gronk is still only 24 YO and a HOF talent. I don't think this is a Nicks/DMC/M.Austin situation. Give me unrelated freak injuries (forearm/knee) over the recurring, related, potentially chronic type.

If Gronk is falling to the 3rd in most leagues, I'll be grabbing him the 2nd of every start-up I do this off-season.

 

[Concept Coop]

Speaking of start-ups, here are my early, initial thoughts on value at each position.

QB - I see very little value at the top. I like RG3 if he goes any later than he did this past off-season. Foles is a wildcard, but I expect there will be one guy in every league that likes him more than I do. Kaepernick still has elite upside, and I'd be willing to gamble again, if the value is right. At the end of the QB1 range, I like Brady and Romo still. Ideally, I'd land a combination of Rivers/Teddy or Manziel very late. I'm in no hurry to address the position, and would be happy to let the rest of my league have their pick before I do.

RB - McCoy or bust in the top 5-7. Charles, Martin, and Gio in the late 1st. Spiller and Lacy in the 2nd. After this group, I'll likely target my favorite rookie options, and hope to land a couple in the 4th-5th round range. Morris and Stacy could provide value if they drop, due to lack of name value. The key to the position, during a start-up, is to maximize your roster space to accommodate a good number of breakout candidates, at every level. Ideally, I'd land a top 5-6 guy in the first two rounds, multiple RB2 candidates in the 4-5 range, and youth/upside the rest of the way. I'm passing on stopgap options and will instead target them via trade if needed. It could be hard to pass on guys like Rice, Foster, and CJ if they slip far enough, but I'm hoping there will be value elsewhere.

WR - WR is tricky. The trend is VERY clear and impossible to ignore: The game is providing more and more fantasy relevant options. More teams than ever have 2+ top players, and I expect that to continue. That would suggest that we take advantage of the depth and wait. There are 3 guys I'd take in the first round: Dez, Calvin, Green. Julio and Thomas are right there and very much worth a first round pick, I'm more likely to trade back than call in their names.

After the top 5, I'll likely be passing on the 2nd tier. Gordon is a star but someone will take that gamble before me. Cobb is safe, Harvin risky - but I'll likely pass on both. Jeffery is a stud, but drafting him in the top 15 feels like chasing. After these names, there is a very high number of options that I value close to equally - so I'll target the end of this list. I expect that to be Cruz again this year, but I should be able to land him a round later than last year.

There will be a lot of WR value on the board in rounds 4-8. In my opinion, the key to the position is taking advantage of the depth. It's will be important to make sure that the guy you pick in round X is worth the value gap between round X and X+1, X+2, etc. I really like Randle, T.Williams. T.Austin, and J. Hunter where I expect them to land. Marshall and Fitz could be targets if my league mates are scared off by their age.

TE - Graham is not a reach at any point in the draft and should be considered in the top 5. Gronk is next and I will be happy to land him in the mid/late 2nd. Reed/Thomas/Cameron will come off the board fairly early, and could be solid value depending on where they land. If I miss out on Gronk/Graham, I am only targeting the bottom of the next tier, and only if value dictates. I'd just fine loading up on RB options in the 4-5, and addressing TE later.

After the top 5, I'll be playing a waiting game. There are a lot potential break out candidates, and many will come cheap. The key is being in the best position to roster the next Reed/Thomas/Cameron. I plan on doing that by grabbing the fallers, rather than paying a premium for the sexy options. ASJ is a guy I predict to land on a lot of my rosters, assuming he lands where I expect him to; well after Ebron and Amaro.

2015 Draft Picks - I'll be looking to add draft picks during the start-up, offering my league mates the option to move up during the draft. The class is loaded at RB, and, as a rule, draft picks are pretty cheap during start-ups, as teams expect to be in the hunt.

Overall - Take advantage of the depth at QB and WR, load up on RB potential, and pick your spots at TE. My sweet spot in the first round is mid-to-late. The potential roster isn't likely to be a favorite going into 2014, but as the value bets pay off, the flexibility should be huge and allow moves if needed.

Example:

McCoy

Lacy

Cruz

Rookie RB/Bell/Stacy/Vereen

Fitz/Randle/Crabtree

Tavon/Rookie WR

T.Williams

Very RB heavy without having to reach. Quality WR group at a discount, with both upside and proven production. Should still be able to land some combination (of 2) of Romo/Brady/Rivers and Bridgewater/Manziel/Manuel at QB. Plenty of options at TE, and it'll be easy enough to pair upside and immediate production. If roster size allows it, I'd hope to land 3 players at TE, at least two being young with tier 2 (Reed/Thomas/Cameron) potential - we'll call it Pitta/ASJ/Kelce.

The value on the roster is very appealing in future trade talks, having loaded up at RB/WR. The downside to waiting on TE and QB is the roster spots that gambles take up. It'll be important to the strategy to stick to boundaries, and gamble on your options getting it done. Rivers/Manziel looks risky, but less so considering how cheap in-season replacements are likely to be. Pitta/ASJ - same thing. Witten/Olsen/Daniels will come cheap during the season, once teams realize they're out of the hunt.

Pardon my rambling, but I'd be interested in hearing what others think about start-up strategy going into next season.

 

[jdoggydogg]

It occurs to me that Gronk's latest injury just upped the value of Jimmy Graham even more. Hard to find a position with such a disparity between the top two players and the rest of the field.

I'm likely to the point where I'd take Graham over Gronk, after preferring Gronk at every previous stage. But I don't think the gap is big. If Gronk had hurt his back, or had more forearm issues, I'd be more worried. Freak injuries happen and that hit would have done the same to anyone. Gronk is still only 24 YO and a HOF talent. I don't think this is a Nicks/DMC/M.Austin situation. Give me unrelated freak injuries (forearm/knee) over the recurring, related, potentially chronic type.

If Gronk is falling to the 3rd in most leagues, I'll be grabbing him the 2nd of every start-up I do this off-season.

I was reading the player chatter on FBG this week, and someone commented that it's obvious that Gronkowski is the best over Graham. I'm not taking issue with that. But we are comparing Graham to what will likely be one of the greatest red zone tight ends that ever lived. Graham is no slouch.

 

[ghostguy123]

Pardon my rambling, but I'd be interested in hearing what others think about start-up strategy going into next season.

If I ever do another startup, which I am sure I will at some point, I am not going RB heavy or RB early (this coming year would be no different if I do another one), and probably never will again.

The value of RBs fluctuate so much that it is a total disaster to spend early picks on RBs if they get hurt. I realize WR is deep, but ELITE WRs are not all that deep, and a lot of the elite WRs currently are also young (Calvin isnt young, but will last a while, Green, Julio, Cobb with A-rod i view near the top, Gordon, maybe Harvin, Marshall, and probably a couple others I am forgetting).

At TE to me Graham is easily in his own tier and worth a very high pick. In 1.5 PPR for TE he is a strong candidate for the #1 pick. I like Julius, but I am not sold his numbers will be elite with a mediocre QB like Cameron's have been half the time. But still not sure I take anyone other than Graham super high.

If I have a top 2-3 pick, I likely try and trade it down for a pick either towards the end of the first round and get a 2015 1st added, or a significant move from maybe like a high 5th to a high 3rd or something of that nature and target another young guy with good stud potential at WR and TE.

I mean, if you end up with Julio at pick 12 and a 2015 1st instead of Calvin or Green or Graham in the top 3-5, I would say that would be ideal for me.

A lot of people view getting future 1sts in the startup and playing for the future. I look at it as potentially playing for the future, but also potentially using those picks in the early part or middle of the season near the trade deadline to either go after a stud, go after a need, or just add to my depth for a playoff run.

If you get the good young WRs and wait on RBs, and happen to have injuries, I think WRs and TEs value will hold up so much better than RBs for the next season, so if you hot some bad luck your rebuild really won't be all that difficult.

Plus if you stock up on WR/TE, and get yourself a good QB in either a mid round or through trade, and manage to hit on one of the flier RBs that seem to pop up all the time (even if it's only for a short time), you could be very well off in the first year also. Heck, even average RB production with a good QB and top end WRs should get you into serious playoff contention, and a good later round RB breakout or waiver guy who does well makes you a championship contender right away with a ncie future outlook also.

As for Gronk, I am not sure I would take him in the 2nd. It pretty much does mean you won't win in 2014, or at the very least lessens your chances quite a lot. Although, if you can manage to scrape by a bit, I think he SHOULD be able to help your team at the end of the year. And regardless of your strategy, I see Graham as the TE to own over Gronk, though he will obviously go much earlier. If you are able to land Graham early and Gronk slides to the 3rd, I think it would be a good idea to see what you can get for Graham, something like that 3rd round pick that is on the clock and "what else". Sometimes people deal mid 1sts for a couple pretty high picks, so if one of those picks is Gronk, and then another halfway young and excellent player, that might be my preference depending on the picks.

But, I think Gronk will end up going higher than the 3rd in most drafts.

 

[EastonBlues22]

Caveat: I only play in deep PPR dynasty leagues (usually 2QB leagues), so this advice might not be relevant for shallower formats.

I strongly prefer building around stud WRs, TEs, and QBs, so those are what I target heavily in trades and drafts. Their value and production tends to be much more stable from year to year than RBs, and the studs tend to be productive for longer, which allows for a nice competiive base to build around.

I've found that it's fairly easy to round out a highly competitive roster with devalued (either due to age, lack of perceived talent, injury concerns, etc.), but still productive, RBs. Last year I won a championship with C. Johnson, Moreno, and B. Brown featured down the stretch. If I win this week, I'll be in the finals in the same league with Bush and Murray leading the charge. None of those guys are cracking anyone's dynasty top 10 RB lists, but they're highly productive and much easier to acquire than your prototypical dynasty RB1s. Even backup RBs tend to be much more plug-and-play than their WR equivalents.

 

[Concept Coop]

I've found that it's fairly easy to round out a highly competitive roster with devalued (either due to age, lack of perceived talent, injury concerns, etc.), but still productive, RBs. Last year I won a championship with C. Johnson, Moreno, and B. Brown featured down the stretch. If I win this week, I'll be in the finals in the same league with Bush and Murray leading the charge. None of those guys are cracking anyone's dynasty top 10 RB lists, but they're highly productive and much easier to acquire than your prototypical dynasty RB1s. Even backup RBs tend to be much more plug-and-play than their WR equivalents.

Finding a startable RB is easy...except when you compare it to any other position. With that context, it's the hardest production to secure by a wide margin. That's why guys like Knowshon Moreno, Andre Brown, and Matt Asiata seem to "pop up" every year; they matter. Brian Hartline is going to finish the season with 80 receptions and 1,000 yards and nobody cares - he's bench material. James Jones led the league in TD receptions a year ago, and couldn't fetch a late 1st round rookie pick.

Antonio Brown is outscoring AJ Green and Dez Bryant right now, and they're all the same age. Dez and Green are top 5 picks and Brown is a 3rd or 4th rounder. You can't do that at RB - the gap between the elite and the good is much wider.

Yes: RBs are harder to find and come with more risk and a shorter shelf life. But that should make them more valuable, not less. Supply and demand.

 

[Concept Coop]

Speaking of Antonio Brown, I think there is potential to target high and still get him for less than he'll go for at the end of next season. He's not sexy for a number of reasons, but I think he has a good shot to maintain his current pace. He has a solid argument for a top 12 ranking, in my opinion. I've been underrating him up until now, but will likely be targeting him this off-season.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

Speaking of Antonio Brown, I think there is potential to target high and still get him for less than he'll go for at the end of next season. He's not sexy for a number of reasons, but I think he has a good shot to maintain his current pace. He has a solid argument for a top 12 ranking, in my opinion. I've been underrating him up until now, but will likely be targeting him this off-season.

Funny, came in here to talk about Brown.He's the #3 WR in one of my leagues. He's 25. If he was 6'2" we'd be talking about him like a lock top-8 dynasty WR. But he's small, and incredibly underrated. He's been super consistent this year, too. Fun guy to watch, and he makes big plays as well as your standard possession plays. WR is rich with young, ideally sized talent right now, so it's no wonder no ones talking about a 5'10" WR. But he's made it increasingly clear that the Steelers made the right choice choosing to pay him over Wallace. And again, he's only 25.

 

[Concept Coop]

Speaking of Antonio Brown, I think there is potential to target high and still get him for less than he'll go for at the end of next season. He's not sexy for a number of reasons, but I think he has a good shot to maintain his current pace. He has a solid argument for a top 12 ranking, in my opinion. I've been underrating him up until now, but will likely be targeting him this off-season.

Funny, came in here to talk about Brown.He's the #3 WR in one of my leagues. He's 25. If he was 6'2" we'd be talking about him like a lock top-8 dynasty WR. But he's small, and incredibly underrated. He's been super consistent this year, too. Fun guy to watch, and he makes big plays as well as your standard possession plays. WR is rich with young, ideally sized talent right now, so it's no wonder no ones talking about a 5'10" WR. But he's made it increasingly clear that the Steelers made the right choice choosing to pay him over Wallace. And again, he's only 25.

His situation kind of reminds me of Victor Cruz a few years ago. I understand some concern: he's not as safe as Green and Dez for a few reasons. But the upside has been flashed, and the receptions pad his floor, too.

Why Cobb over Brown? Or Harvin? Or Cruz?

Again, like you said, he has an argument for top 8 and I don't think he's being taken seriously yet.

 

[EBF]

Brown is a good player, but I also think his 2013 season will be very hard for him to reproduce in future years. He was not quite this good in 2011 and not nearly this good in 2012. Where was the hype 12 months ago? He's hot now because he's producing monster stats at this exact moment in time. I don't think he's a legitimate 1400 yard receiver though. If you add up his per-game numbers over the last three seasons and then average them out over a full season, you get 1191 yards, which is probably a more realistic expectation for him moving forward.

If you look at the NFL leaders in receiving TDs, the list is dominated by bigger targets. The only small guys in the top 10 are Welker (elite situation) and DeSean Jackson (historically a feast-or-famine scorer who has arguably benefitted from an elite situation this season as well). Brown and Royal are also pretty high, but by and large the top 25 is dominated by big targets. I don't think that's a coincidence. Steve Smith is the best of the small receivers and he only has one double digit TD season in his career. Fitz has 5. Marshall has 3. Calvin and Demaryius already have 4 and 2 respectively. Point being, the bias towards big receivers makes sense because a good big receiver will always be a threat to score more TDs than a good small receiver.

At 5'10" 186, Brown is never going to be a big red zone weapon, so he'll always be reliant on home runs to get his scores. He's not the aerial threat that Victor Cruz and Steve Smith are (two other good sub 6' receivers). I would say he's like a slightly better DeSean Jackson. He's been remarkably consistent this season and I always like that, but just 12 months ago he was a season-killer for anyone who was counting on him for top 15 production. I'd say he's just another example of a "good" player having a "great" season. That's not an unprecedented situation in Pittsburgh. Santonio Holmes and Mike Wallace both had one big season there as well. If you bought high at that point, you've probably been disappointed with what you've gotten since. I think Brown is fine as a dynasty WR2, but can't imagine myself bumping him up into the top 10 at any point.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

Speaking of Antonio Brown, I think there is potential to target high and still get him for less than he'll go for at the end of next season. He's not sexy for a number of reasons, but I think he has a good shot to maintain his current pace. He has a solid argument for a top 12 ranking, in my opinion. I've been underrating him up until now, but will likely be targeting him this off-season.

Funny, came in here to talk about Brown.He's the #3 WR in one of my leagues. He's 25. If he was 6'2" we'd be talking about him like a lock top-8 dynasty WR. But he's small, and incredibly underrated. He's been super consistent this year, too. Fun guy to watch, and he makes big plays as well as your standard possession plays. WR is rich with young, ideally sized talent right now, so it's no wonder no ones talking about a 5'10" WR. But he's made it increasingly clear that the Steelers made the right choice choosing to pay him over Wallace. And again, he's only 25.

His situation kind of reminds me of Victor Cruz a few years ago. I understand some concern: he's not as safe as Green and Dez for a few reasons. But the upside has been flashed, and the receptions pad his floor, too.

Why Cobb over Brown? Or Harvin? Or Cruz?

Again, like you said, he has an argument for top 8 and I don't think he's being taken seriously yet.

Which could mean we're in a nice buying window, like you said.

 

[Concept Coop]

Brown is a good player, but I also think his 2013 season will be very hard for him to reproduce in future years. He was not quite this good in 2011 and not nearly this good in 2012. Where was the hype 12 months ago? He's hot now because he's producing monster stats at this exact moment in time. I don't think he's a legitimate 1400 yard receiver though. If you add up his per-game numbers over the last three seasons and then average them out over a full season, you get 1191 yards, which is probably a more realistic expectation for him moving forward.

If you look at the NFL leaders in receiving TDs, the list is dominated by bigger targets. The only small guys in the top 10 are Welker (elite situation) and DeSean Jackson (historically a feast-or-famine scorer who has arguably benefitted from an elite situation this season as well). Brown and Royal are also pretty high, but by and large the top 25 is dominated by big targets. I don't think that's a coincidence. Steve Smith is the best of the small receivers and he only has one double digit TD season in his career. Fitz has 5. Marshall has 3. Calvin and Demaryius already have 4 and 2 respectively. Point being, the bias towards big receivers makes sense because a good big receiver will always be a threat to score more TDs than a good small receiver.

At 5'10" 186, Brown is never going to be a big red zone weapon, so he'll always be reliant on home runs to get his scores. He's not the aerial threat that Victor Cruz and Steve Smith are (two other good sub 6' receiver). I would say he's like a slightly better DeSean Jackson. He's been remarkably consistent this season and I always like that, but just 12 months ago he was a season-killer for anyone who was counting on him for top 15 production. I'd say he's just another example of a "good" player having a "great" season. That's not an unprecedented situation in Pittsburgh. Santonio Holmes and Mike Wallace both had one big season there as well. If you bought high at that point, you've probably been disappointed with what you've gotten since. I think Brown is fine as a dynasty WR2, but can't imagine myself bumping him up into the top 10 at any point.

I think this is a fine argument for Brown not being top 5-7. But after that group, all of the options have question marks. I think Brown should be treated as Cobb was last year, but he won't be because we've already decided what Brown is. Cobb was still new.

As for his past production, he had an injury, and - more importantly, even - his QB had injury issues; missing games and playing hurt plenty others. With a healthy Ben, Brown has been great in PPR leagues.

 

[EBF]

Speaking of Antonio Brown, I think there is potential to target high and still get him for less than he'll go for at the end of next season. He's not sexy for a number of reasons, but I think he has a good shot to maintain his current pace. He has a solid argument for a top 12 ranking, in my opinion. I've been underrating him up until now, but will likely be targeting him this off-season.

Funny, came in here to talk about Brown.He's the #3 WR in one of my leagues. He's 25. If he was 6'2" we'd be talking about him like a lock top-8 dynasty WR. But he's small, and incredibly underrated. He's been super consistent this year, too. Fun guy to watch, and he makes big plays as well as your standard possession plays. WR is rich with young, ideally sized talent right now, so it's no wonder no ones talking about a 5'10" WR. But he's made it increasingly clear that the Steelers made the right choice choosing to pay him over Wallace. And again, he's only 25.

His situation kind of reminds me of Victor Cruz a few years ago. I understand some concern: he's not as safe as Green and Dez for a few reasons. But the upside has been flashed, and the receptions pad his floor, too.

Why Cobb over Brown? Or Harvin? Or Cruz?

Again, like you said, he has an argument for top 8 and I don't think he's being taken seriously yet.

Which could mean we're in a nice buying window, like you said.

I think the time to buy was obviously last offseason. Brown was pretty good in 2011 and I was really impressed with him during the 2012 preseason, but he had a quiet year and I mostly disregarded him after that. So did most people. What was his price tag at that point? WR25-30? In hindsight, he was a very good value there.

Now it's a much different story. I think immediately after a huge season is usually the WORST time to buy a player. The secret is out at this point. A lot of the people who own Brown probably made deep playoff runs because he was a minor investment that paid off huge. On the backs of that success, I don't think now is a good time to go fishing for him. His success is fresh in everybody's minds and they're not likely to discount him flagrantly like they would've a year ago, when it actually required faith and patience to place a high valuation on him.

As far as the comparisons, Harvin and Cruz both outscored Brown by a healthy margin from 2011-2012, so there's no great mystery why people rate them higher. I don't think Cobb is a top 10 NFL WR talent, but he's roughly on par with Brown and he plays a very stat friendly role with a great QB. It's not impossible that Brown will outperform some of these guys moving forward, but it's also not a given by any means. Any one of those three could easily outscore him next season. To suggest that he should be clearly ahead of him would be an example of "What have you done for me lately?" thinking.

 

[Concept Coop]

To suggest that he should be clearly ahead of him would be an example of "What have you done for me lately?" thinking.

I think we're having different conversations. Nobody has suggested that he's clearly ahead of Cobb or Cruz. And the best time to buy was as a rookie, when he was free. Unfortunately, that point came and went. That doesn't mean he's off limits to me, personally. Guys like Brown, who aren't sexy to fantasy owners, can be targeted after initial breakout. McCoy and Cruz paid off for me recently, for example.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

I definitely agree that Brown is a potential buy. Yes, it's pretty likely that 2013 ends up being a career year, but I'll happily take 90 - 1200 at 75 - 1000 prices, which seems likely (both the price and the baseline performance) IMO.

 

[EBF]

You can buy high and still turn a profit. I'm sure people who "overpaid" in the offseason for Jeffery, Floyd, and Gordon feel pretty good about those moves right now. I just don't see how a guy coming off a 1400-1500 yard season is likely to be undervalued to an extent that he represents a good investment. When you pay WR15 prices for a player who probably doesn't have a ceiling much higher than WR7 or WR8 long term, there's a pretty slim profit margin.

Depending on what the ADP looks like in a few months, it's pretty likely the value of Brown at his ADP will be poor relative to the value you can get later in the draft with a cheaper player coming off a disappointing season (i.e. Crabtree, Amendola, Blackmon) or a rookie/young prospect who hasn't hit his production ceiling yet. When you're getting someone as the 25-45th WR off the board, there is a lot more upside than when you're getting someone as a top 10-15 player at his position. At that point you almost need him to become a perennial mega star to turn any kind of a real profit. I don't see Brown ever hitting that level, so to me he's a player that you'll be buying close to his ceiling this offseason. That doesn't mean he's a bad investment, but it does mean there's a pretty modest "buy low" appeal.

 

[Concept Coop]

I just don't see how a guy coming off a 1400-1500 yard season is likely to be undervalued to an extent that he represents a good investment.

We won't know until the ADP data starts to come in. At this point, we're all guessing what his price will be, so we could potentially agree once it's established.

 

[Concept Coop]

In the mock that Jeter shared, Brown was the 17th WR selected. Yes please.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

In the mock that Jeter shared, Brown was the 17th WR selected. Yes please.

Anecdotal I know, but I was just informed that he's "distant 3rd" in value behind DeSean Jackson and Victor Cruz by a guy that owns all three.

He's undervalued.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

In the mock that Jeter shared, Brown was the 17th WR selected. Yes please.

Anecdotal I know, but I was just informed that he's "distant 3rd" in value behind DeSean Jackson and Victor Cruz by a guy that owns all three.

He's undervalued.

Surprised to hear that. DJax is no longer young, and his game relies 100% on being healthy and blazing fast. Cruz is on a dumpster fire of an offense with a regressing QB, and he'll be 29.

 

[Concept Coop]

In the mock that Jeter shared, Brown was the 17th WR selected. Yes please.

Anecdotal I know, but I was just informed that he's "distant 3rd" in value behind DeSean Jackson and Victor Cruz by a guy that owns all three.

He's undervalued.

Surprised to hear that. DJax is no longer young, and his game relies 100% on being healthy and blazing fast. Cruz is on a dumpster fire of an offense with a regressing QB, and he'll be 29.

Yeah, I love Cruz, but was once a positive (Manning/NYG) is now a glaring red flag. I hate to say it, but I'd take Brown first, too.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

In the mock that Jeter shared, Brown was the 17th WR selected. Yes please.

Anecdotal I know, but I was just informed that he's "distant 3rd" in value behind DeSean Jackson and Victor Cruz by a guy that owns all three.He's undervalued.

Surprised to hear that. DJax is no longer young, and his game relies 100% on being healthy and blazing fast. Cruz is on a dumpster fire of an offense with a regressing QB, and he'll be 29.

Lot of people think Brown is a total fluke this year IMO. I personally don't see anywhere else for his targets to go, but as EBF said, Brown burned a bunch of people in 2012.

I'm personally thinking that the Giants bounce back somewhat next year, Cruz included, also.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

In the mock that Jeter shared, Brown was the 17th WR selected. Yes please.

Anecdotal I know, but I was just informed that he's "distant 3rd" in value behind DeSean Jackson and Victor Cruz by a guy that owns all three.He's undervalued.

Surprised to hear that. DJax is no longer young, and his game relies 100% on being healthy and blazing fast. Cruz is on a dumpster fire of an offense with a regressing QB, and he'll be 29.

Lot of people think Brown is a total fluke this year IMO. I personally don't see anywhere else for his targets to go, but as EBF said, Brown burned a bunch of people in 2012.

I'm personally thinking that the Giants bounce back somewhat next year, Cruz included, also.

I definitely see Cruz as a bounce-back candidate next year, especially if they can the OC. But I don't see Brown as a fluke. With the Steelers having a down year or two, less of their games have been nationally televised compared to the past--so I think a lot of people haven't seen Brown blowing up this year.

 

[Tool]

In the mock that Jeter shared, Brown was the 17th WR selected. Yes please.

Anecdotal I know, but I was just informed that he's "distant 3rd" in value behind DeSean Jackson and Victor Cruz by a guy that owns all three.

He's undervalued.

Surprised to hear that. DJax is no longer young, and his game relies 100% on being healthy and blazing fast. Cruz is on a dumpster fire of an offense with a regressing QB, and he'll be 29.

Both guys turned 27 within the last month.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

In the mock that Jeter shared, Brown was the 17th WR selected. Yes please.

Anecdotal I know, but I was just informed that he's "distant 3rd" in value behind DeSean Jackson and Victor Cruz by a guy that owns all three.He's undervalued.

Surprised to hear that. DJax is no longer young, and his game relies 100% on being healthy and blazing fast. Cruz is on a dumpster fire of an offense with a regressing QB, and he'll be 29.

Both guys turned 27 within the last month.

You are absolutely right. My bad, don't know where I got those numbers.

 

[Casting Couch]

In the mock that Jeter shared, Brown was the 17th WR selected. Yes please.

Anecdotal I know, but I was just informed that he's "distant 3rd" in value behind DeSean Jackson and Victor Cruz by a guy that owns all three.He's undervalued.

Surprised to hear that. DJax is no longer young, and his game relies 100% on being healthy and blazing fast. Cruz is on a dumpster fire of an offense with a regressing QB, and he'll be 29.

Lot of people think Brown is a total fluke this year IMO. I personally don't see anywhere else for his targets to go, but as EBF said, Brown burned a bunch of people in 2012.

I'm personally thinking that the Giants bounce back somewhat next year, Cruz included, also.

I definitely see Cruz as a bounce-back candidate next year, especially if they can the OC.But I don't see Brown as a fluke. With the Steelers having a down year or two, less of their games have been nationally televised compared to the past--so I think a lot of people haven't seen Brown blowing up this year.

Brown is flat out stud. I along with others, refused to buy into it until the half way point of this season. He finds open space like no other.

He beats double teams, it's just amazing that dude finds ways to beat you even though he's the only legitamate passing option on the team.

No offense to Emmanuel and Cotchery. Antonio Brown is a top 5-10 dynasty WR going forward, imo.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

In the mock that Jeter shared, Brown was the 17th WR selected. Yes please.

Anecdotal I know, but I was just informed that he's "distant 3rd" in value behind DeSean Jackson and Victor Cruz by a guy that owns all three.He's undervalued.

Surprised to hear that. DJax is no longer young, and his game relies 100% on being healthy and blazing fast. Cruz is on a dumpster fire of an offense with a regressing QB, and he'll be 29.

Lot of people think Brown is a total fluke this year IMO. I personally don't see anywhere else for his targets to go, but as EBF said, Brown burned a bunch of people in 2012.I'm personally thinking that the Giants bounce back somewhat next year, Cruz included, also.

I definitely see Cruz as a bounce-back candidate next year, especially if they can the OC.But I don't see Brown as a fluke. With the Steelers having a down year or two, less of their games have been nationally televised compared to the past--so I think a lot of people haven't seen Brown blowing up this year.

Brown is flat out stud. I along with others, refused to buy into it until the half way point of this season. He finds open space like no other.

He beats double teams, it's just amazing that dude finds ways to beat you even though he's the only legitamate passing option on the team.

No offense to Emmanuel and Cotchery. Antonio Brown is a top 5-10 dynasty WR going forward, imo.

Yeah, I agree here. Brown looks like a mid / low WR1 that can possibly be bought at mid / low WR2 prices despite the huge breakout. People are arguing Hopkins, Allen, even Hunter in WR1 territory. I prefer Brown to all of them pretty easily.

 

[EastonBlues22]

I've found that it's fairly easy to round out a highly competitive roster with devalued (either due to age, lack of perceived talent, injury concerns, etc.), but still productive, RBs. Last year I won a championship with C. Johnson, Moreno, and B. Brown featured down the stretch. If I win this week, I'll be in the finals in the same league with Bush and Murray leading the charge. None of those guys are cracking anyone's dynasty top 10 RB lists, but they're highly productive and much easier to acquire than your prototypical dynasty RB1s. Even backup RBs tend to be much more plug-and-play than their WR equivalents.

Finding a startable RB is easy...except when you compare it to any other position. With that context, it's the hardest production to secure by a wide margin. That's why guys like Knowshon Moreno, Andre Brown, and Matt Asiata seem to "pop up" every year; they matter. Brian Hartline is going to finish the season with 80 receptions and 1,000 yards and nobody cares - he's bench material. James Jones led the league in TD receptions a year ago, and couldn't fetch a late 1st round rookie pick.

Antonio Brown is outscoring AJ Green and Dez Bryant right now, and they're all the same age. Dez and Green are top 5 picks and Brown is a 3rd or 4th rounder. You can't do that at RB - the gap between the elite and the good is much wider.

Yes: RBs are harder to find and come with more risk and a shorter shelf life. But that should make them more valuable, not less. Supply and demand.

I'm not arguing that WR1s are more valuable than RB1s. I'm arguing that targeting highly valued RBs and paying the going rate for them in trades isn't necessarily the best use of resources because of their volatility. If you invest a high startup dynasty pick in one, you had better hit or it's going to set you back significantly since you're stuck with that player long-term.

The strategy that's worked best for me (remembering my previous caveat about the type of leagues I play in) is to draft a strong startup core of young WRs/TEs/QBs and pick up the RBs that fall. It's relatively easy to fortify a weak RB roster with rookie draft picks (which can often step in and produce at a high level very quickly), by trading for veteran/old/"injury prone" rbs who are losing value but still productive (like Gore, Murray, Mathews, etc.), and by working the WW. That gets your entire roster up to speed very quickly.

If you're in a shallow league where you start 1QB, 2RBs, 2WR and a Flex, then obviously that advice isn't as meaningful. A typical setup for the leagues I play is a PPR that starts 2QB, 2RB, 2WR, 2TE, and 3Flex. Drafting 3 RBs in the top 4 rounds or something similar will get you killed in that format.

 

[Concept Coop]

I'm not arguing that WR1s are more valuable than RB1s. I'm arguing that targeting highly valued RBs and paying the going rate for them in trades isn't necessarily the best use of resources because of their volatility. If you invest a high startup dynasty pick in one, you had better hit or it's going to set you back significantly since you're stuck with that player long-term.


The strategy that's worked best for me (remembering my previous caveat about the type of leagues I play in) is to draft a strong startup core of young WRs/TEs/QBs and pick up the RBs that fall. It's relatively easy to fortify a weak RB roster with rookie draft picks (which can often step in and produce at a high level very quickly), by trading for veteran/old/"injury prone" rbs who are losing value but still productive (like Gore, Murray, Mathews, etc.), and by working the WW. That gets your entire roster up to speed very quickly.

If you're in a shallow league where you start 1QB, 2RBs, 2WR and a Flex, then obviously that advice isn't as meaningful. A typical setup for the leagues I play is a PPR that starts 2QB, 2RB, 2WR, 2TE, and 3Flex. Drafting 3 RBs in the top 4 rounds or something similar will get you killed in that format.

I didn't mean to suggest your strategy was wrong, by any means, and apologize if that's how I presented myself. This last off-season, actually, I decided (one the clock, not going in) to avoid RB early becuase I wasn't sold on the top options. Martin and Richardson were my top 2 guys and I didn't feel comfortable enough with them to use the picks required. Had I pulled the trigger on Richardson, I would be kicking myself and my team would be suffering for it.

RB is by far the riskiest position to invest in right now. But that is countered by the reward, in my opinion, assuming you're comfortable with the targets and price. With SO many WR options out there, I think it's hard to leave a start up with an advantage by investing most of your resources in the position - you miss out on the depth the position offers in relation to other positions, mostly RB. The upcoming draft is going to be flooded with WR options in rounds 3-8. I take that to mean that I can wait a bit on the position and still have a baseline group, while having a heavy advantage at other positions. I don't think you can wait on RB and say the same, personally.

Just my thoughts, and, again, YMMV and some cliche about cats and their skin.

ETA: And of course 2QB changes all of this.

 

[rct]

Edited.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

IMO it's one of the central tensions in dynasty: the easiest way to win is to rack up huge VBD at RB, but there's so much turnover and so many games missed at the position that it's almost impossible to do for very long. And even if you load up at QB/WR/TE you can get completely hung out to dry if you miss on your late RB picks/WW acquisitions.

 

[Concept Coop]

For some of us, it is not about always turning a profit. It is about winning s championship in the next year or two, which is more important to us than having a more valuable player or a higher "profit margin" 3-5 years down the road. The fact that we are overpaying for Brown from a long term standpoint is not an issue if he is a player we are targeting in dynasty for 2014. Just saying that some of us have a different perspective.

Exactly. We all want some kind of balance between actual value and market value - both at an individual asset level and a portfolio level.

I view Antonio Brown as a Hyundai Sonata; I'm not investing based on resale value. I'm investing because I am likely to get the same functional value that more expensive options provide, for less.

 

[thriftyrocker]

With SO many WR options out there, I think it's hard to leave a start up with an advantage by investing most of your resources in the position - you miss out on the depth the position offers in relation to other positions, mostly RB.

Both positions offer depth. Both positions offer value picks later on. I went WR, WR, TE, WR, WR, WR in a startup and am in the finals due to my crazy advantage at WR (start 3). It wasn't hard; it was just picking BPA.