Dynasty Rankings (5 Viewers)

[FUBAR]

IMO there aren't many good dynasty RBs in the NFL right now. Most of the best options are either too old or too unproven. So while I definitely wouldn't feel comfortable grabbing CJ at RB3 or Forte at RB5, there are aren't many other backs who are obviously superior.

Actually, there are quite a few "good dynasty RBs", but there aren't any Marshall Faulk / LTs right now.While I love Peterson as an NFL player, he isn't all that in a PPR league. MJD??? SJax? I'm in a league that starts drafting today with the #9 pick, the #1 pick is willing to trade down, but IMHO I wouldn't give much to trade up even 8 spots right now. There's 3 WRs that are IMO equal, a bunch of RBs, perhaps Brees is the only player who is heads above his peers - and I'll get Brady and Peyton fans refuting that.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

As Couch Potato pointed out, I finally got around to redoing the rankings after the draft and posted them on Rotoworld's Pancake Blocks blog.

Tonight, I finally got around to updating the Sons of the Tundra blog for QBs & RBs. I hope to finish WRs & TEs tomorrow. All of the moving around and adding rookies is taking longer than I thought.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Looks pretty good. I like the Percy Harvin <3. I think everyone will be singing the same tune once they see him on the field this season. As far as the rest of the WRs, I'm a little more bullish on Jennings. I have him as the WR3 and wouldn't pass on him for 30+ Moss and Smith. He only has one elite season under his belt, but he looks like a keeper. I think Eddie Royal is a better football player than Roy Williams and Anthony Gonzalez. I can see why their situations might give them the edge, but in the long run I would rather have Royal. I would put Hester at the top of that sixth tier. I think he's better than the rest of those guys (except maybe Avery and the ancient Ward) and he has a great opportunity this season. Most of the other guys ranked in the 30+ range are a grab bag of longshots and has-beens. I don't have much to say about them. IMO there aren't many good dynasty RBs in the NFL right now. Most of the best options are either too old or too unproven. So while I definitely wouldn't feel comfortable grabbing CJ at RB3 or Forte at RB5, there are aren't many other backs who are obviously superior. I think Stewart is too low. I have him as a top 5-10 value. You'll have to wait 1-2 seasons, but he's plenty young and talented. Putting aside the fact that I think McFadden will be a flop, I don't see an appreciable difference in value between him and Mendenhall. Both are young first round backs who have proven nothing, but could pay huge dividends. I would rank Rashard somewhere in that 15-20 range. I also think Felix Jones and Shonn Greene might be 5-10 spots too low. I won't be surprised if Beanie Wells is considered the sophomore RB at this time next year, but the thought of drafting him at RB10 will give me nightmares.

I agree on just about everything here. Harvin is a major playmaking talent who landed in an astroturf dome with an offense that has Adrian Peterson to keep defenses honest and Rosenfels/Favre to pass much better than Jackson. I really like his talent, his fit, and his difference-making potential.I like Jennings a lot, but I prefer the monster season possibilities of Moss & Smith, who also enjoy a fairly strong edge in talent.I agree that Royal is a better football player than Williams & Gonzalez, but I'm giving the latter two an edge in situation/QB (as you suggested). Hester is interesting too. I'll have to take another look at that.I couldn't agree more with your sentiment that there aren't many good Dynasty RBs right now, and that's exactly why I had the rookies ranked highly (although I am legitimately super-high on Moreno). The veterans in Tier 2 all have fairly significant question marks:MBIII - Back to the closer role, Felix Jones a better talent, Choice's December production.Lynch - Fred Jackson has been just as effective and sees more touches than an average backup. Suspension + possible knucklehead issues?Westbrook - Age & injury history.Ronnie Brown - Ricky's presence, Contract up after 2009Jacobs - Doesn't catch the ball, gets injured more than you'd like, Giants like Bradshaw & rookie BrownStewart - How long will you have to wait? Can you value him as a RB2 while your competition is rolling out Westbrook/LT2 against you on a weekly basis?McFadden - Injuries? Raiders. Certainly hasn't proven anything yet.Slaton - Staying power? Goal-line carries? Reminds me too much of FWP and Addai as guys who can't handle 300 touches on a yearly basis.P. Thomas - Offensive role w/ Bush? Will Saints add a power back down the line?Portis - Way too many carries under his belt (nearing the cliff?), always banged up b/c of physical style, O-Line?Re: Stewart. He might be too low. I love his talent, but I just can't justify ranking a RB that highly when we don't know when you can use him.Re: Felix Jones. Is he going to be a weekly fantasy asset? Again, how long will we wait to see it? Will he always be paired with a good power back?Re: Shonn Greene. He's not going to catch passes. Is he going to be in the Jacobs, Turner, Beanie Wells class of runners who can survive as assets w/out being used in the passing game?

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Saw the updated(except for TE) rankings on roto, good work as always.A couple thoughts:1. After the "McFadden is the guy to buy this offseason" article I expected him to be a little higher. Closer to 10th than 20th.2. Glad to see McNabb is getting the respect he deserves, I'd still take him over Cutler or Romo, but I'll settle for the same tier.3. Its kind of funny how the WR tiers turned out, I was looking at the pre draft update and thinking that tier 2 dropped off after White so that was cool to see. 4. The rookie RB's seem high, especially Beanie(can he catch?) but then again I thought that last year and was proven wrong.5. Looking at the previous rankings, I'm expecting Dustin Keller to move up at TE since he's now the #2 target and, in theory, they have the QB position figured out.6. Bold stand against Clinton Portis, can't say I disagree, but I've counted him out prematurely before.7. I realize they are over 30, but I think Moss and Smith could be in tier one. I think they are just as likely as any of the guys in tier one to be the #1 WR the next couple years, especially Moss.8. Still kind think either DeAngelo or Stewart are too high. With 2 more years for DeAngelo in Carolina, how big of a long term payoff are you expecting for Stewart to be that high? Or how big of a workload are you expecting Stewart to take for DeAngelo to be that low?9. Is Brandon Marshall rated as though he'll be in the clear, at least for now?10. Don't really have a 10th thought, but 9 thoughts doesn't seem right, so thanks again for talking me(and others) into Chris Johnson last preseason.

1. The article was about buying him before his value jumps. I'm not willing to go that far out on a limb to say he's a Top-10 guy.2. I like McNabb a lot. His age and injury history are working against him. His value just hasn't been as stable the past few years.3. Yeah, I see a dropoff there. Colston's production is fantastic, but I don't how his owners can't be concerned about his knees. 4. They are high, but that's also a reflection of the questions about the veteran RBs in Tier 2. There are legit concerns about the possible stud status of all of those guys. I have a very respected friend who swears that Beanie Wells is 95% of Adrian Peterson, which I think is hyperbole -- but there's no denying that he's easily a first-round talent with a plum situation. 5. I like Dustin Keller an awful lot, and I agree that he's the clear No. 2 in New York. But his QB situation could be a mess this year.6. Yes, it's a bold stand. I just don't like holding the bag on RBs when they hit the cliff. The value goes from starter to bubkes in an instant.7. You won't get any argument from me here. I love both of those guys, and they meet the "difference-makers" qualification for elite status.8. You could be right. The Carolina backs are tough to rank. I should probably drop D-Willy, but again, doesn't his 2008 deserve to be ranked ahead of the guys in Tier 2 -- all of whom are less than studs.9. No, he's not rated as if he'll be in the clear. He's rated as a knucklehead who may get a 2-3 game suspension this year and every other year.10. Cool.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

F&L - you are pretty down on Lendale White. Care to expand your thoughts?

Additionally, I'm surprised to see that Maroney isn't even lower. Is your #37 ranking based on the idea that he might land elsewhere in 2010?

 

[Fear & Loathing]

F&L - you are pretty down on Lendale White. Care to expand your thoughts?Additionally, I'm surprised to see that Maroney isn't even lower. Is your #37 ranking based on the idea that he might land elsewhere in 2010?

Re: LenDale. My thoughts aren't any different than what I've been putting down here and on the blog for the past 2 years. He isn't that good. He's often out of shape. He has knucklehead potential. His value has always piggybacked off of Albert Haynesworth and last year Chris Johnson. Haynesworth is gone, so the Titans won't be able to take the air out of the ball as much. The Titans want to get Johnson more involved, so that and the Haynesworth loss mean a lesser role for White (as predicted in 2008). Goal-line vultures may carry your team for stretches in a redraft league, but TDs are too fickle from year-to-year. His contract is up after this year, and I don't see another team giving him 200+ carries in 2010 and beyond. Nobody else is going to give you anything truly valuable in return for him.I'm not a Maroney believer, but he's still young and still talented. Who knows where he could end up?

 

[thriftyrocker]

Do you think Harry Douglas will emerge as a solid option for Matt Ryan? It's a bit odd to see 3 relevant OAK WRs listed and only one Falcon. Guy is a toothpick but seems solid in a Lance Moore, Bobby Engram sort of way.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Do you think Harry Douglas will emerge as a solid option for Matt Ryan? It's a bit odd to see 3 relevant OAK WRs listed and only one Falcon. Guy is a toothpick but seems solid in a Lance Moore, Bobby Engram sort of way.

I don't really care about floors for long shots, so I'm looking at ceilings. All 3 of the Oakland guys could wind up as their team's WR1 b/c of opportunity and talent. I don't think Douglas will ever be more than a slot receiver, and now that the Falcons have Gonzalez, White & Jenkins, Douglas won't be getting enough looks to have any value whatsoever. Could he have value way down the line? Possibly, but why carry a slot receiver with a low ceiling for 3 years when you could be using the roster space for something much more valuable?

 

[Fodasme69]

Out of Curiosity......the QB and RB rankings a a little different on the blog vs. what is on Rotoworld. Just updating to today vs. when they were up there? Not big differences but a few points here and there.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Out of Curiosity......the QB and RB rankings a a little different on the blog vs. what is on Rotoworld. Just updating to today vs. when they were up there? Not big differences but a few points here and there.

Yeah, just re-thinking a few things, taking some new things into consideration, etc.

 

[Fodasme69]

Out of Curiosity......the QB and RB rankings a a little different on the blog vs. what is on Rotoworld. Just updating to today vs. when they were up there? Not big differences but a few points here and there.

Yeah, just re-thinking a few things, taking some new things into consideration, etc.

Just what I figured!

 

[Biabreakable]

Hi F&LI just came across this post on your blog which is awesome btw and keeps getting better:

1. Knowshon Moreno, Broncos - The draft's best all-around running back. Evan Silva and I debated the committee effect in Denver, and I just don't believe Josh McDaniels is married to that approach. He didn't use the No. 12 pick to have a dynamite player sit behind Correll Buckhalter, J.J. Arrington and LaMont Jordan.2. Chris Wells, Cardinals - This was a crazy good fit for both player and team. Wells is the most explosive back in the draft and will step in as the workhorse in a scary offense starting in Week One.3. Michael Crabtree, 49ers - Just because he fell in the draft, that doesn't mean he falls in fantasy leagues. Crabtree should step in as an immediate starter and easily the best playmaker of Shaun Hill's weapons.4. Percy Harvin, Vikings - Sure to be the most controversial of these rankings, I love Harvin's fit with the Vikings. Harvin's explosiveness and first-step quickness will make him an outstanding playmaker on astroturf, and the Vikes "pick-your-poison" offense just got a whole lot tougher to stop.5. Donald Brown, Colts - I've never been a Joseph Addai fan, but it's true that Brown won't just push him to the sidelines. The Colts offense is great, but I don't like waiting 2+ years on a running back if I'm not sure he's going to be special. 6. LeSean McCoy, Eagles - He's too similar to Brian Westbrook to carve out a significant role right off the bat, and I'm not wild about his shake and bake style making the easy transition to the NFL. 7. Hakeem Nicks, Giants - Silva's second-ranked wide receiver is also high on my list. Eli's hit-and-miss gun will be throwing to him, but the opportunity will be there right off the bat.8. Matthew Stafford, Lions - Is he accurate enough? We'll find out, but you have to like a strong-armed quarterback's ability to find Calvin Johnson.9. Mark Sanchez, Jets - The good news is that he was hottest name in the draft. The bad news is that the Jets didn't have a chance to find a starter opposite Jerricho Cotchery once they made the deal to get their franchise quarterback.10. Kenny Britt, Titans - Silva believes he's a threat to Justin Gage's starting job, but I think it will end up Gage and Britt in the starting lineup with Nate Washington assuming his familiar deep-threat No. 3 role. Either way, Britt has the best chance of ending up as the go-to guy.11. Jeremy Maclin, Eagles - Where does he fit in this offense? And is his game too similar to DeSean Jackson's? I love what the Eagles have done on offense this season, but how long until Maclin becomes a fantasy starter?12. Darrius Heyward-Bey, Raiders - The biggest reach in the first round lands in a dysfunctional offense with a scatter-shot quarterback. The opportunity is there, but I'm skeptical of the Raiders passing game.

Just a few comments.Knowshon Moreno, Broncos - JJ Arrington is injured and already out of the picture. Moreno is a complete RB. He can catch the ball well and is a good blocker. Lamont Jordan is his only real compitition for playing time. He is still a rookie. Maybe he won't break the 250 touch threshold in year one but I like his chances to do so more than any other rookie RB including Wells who will not likely be in on long yardage situations if he struggles with his blocking. The Denver air has produced some high quality RBs before. Denver showed even more commitment to the run by drafting Richard Quinn in the 2nd round. Some thought it was a wasted pick. What if Quinn can put on 20-30 pounds and play guard or tackle?I see this and the drafting of Moreno as an indication that there is going to be a dramatic shift in play selection from last year to this year. In short the team is going to run more and with Orton as the QB I think they will run a lot more. Biggest question here is the defense but that is why they will be commited to the run and shorten the game to keep the defense off the field.I was astonished to learn how effective the Broncos running game was last year in terms of YPC which was outstanding 4.8 but they only ran the ball 387 times.With the changes in place I think the target goal for the offense will be closer to 500 running plays than it will 387. And Moreno even if he starts slowly is a good bet to get over 50% of those plays as well as catching a lot of passes.Chris Wells I only have him lower because it is not known if Wells can be the complete package as a blocker and reciever yet. He may be more physicaly gifted than Moreno and could outperform him over their careers. He carries more risk though. Looking at upside based off what we know now I see it a bit of a toss up. Wells could still have a Jamal Lewis like career even if he gets injured and never learns to catch.After the top 3 you have Harvin. I have to say that you EBF and Andy all have me really excited to see him play. After the top 3 there seems to many differences of opinion. That is what tells me there is a new tier here.I am kind of like F&L that when I drop into a new tier I will look for players who I think have the most upside. Brown, Greene and McCoy do not have as clear paths to 250 touches as Wells and Moreno do.The strength of this draft is at WR. To me there is a 2nd tier of players after the top 3. Maybe for you this is only a top 2 I am not entirely sure.I have Brown at 4 mostly because of draft position and the Colts track record. But I recognize that track record may be wrong because they also drafted Addai in the 1st round not long ago.Then I have DHB and Harvin who I think have the most upside talent wise to be explosive WR. TDs matter in my leagues. If your playing PPR I could see you going another route taking Nicks or Maclin because of opportunity for more consistency in their targets (better QB). I think those 5 make up the 2nd tier.After that I have Stafford, Sanchez, Greene, McCoy, Britt and Robiske rounding out the 3rd tier. Freeman and Cook I think are close to the players in this 3rd tier but not valued as much because of expected longer wait for them to establish themselves. But really I think that is minor and those 2 are close to these other 6 but at less valued positions.Some people might have Dillard, Thomas, Iglesias, Andre Brown, Jennings, Pettigrew in a similar tier. I would be taking defense.Is there a deeper rookie ranking list somewhere? Wondering what you think as far as tiers on the rookies?love this thread.

 

[Patoons]

Fantastic thread. Inspired me to start a blog myself on dynasty rankings and other football discussion.

If you're looking for an alternate view, check it out below.

Keep up the good work F&L!

 

[renesauz]

I'm not a Maroney believer, but he's still young and still talented. Who knows where he could end up?

Been thinking the same thing. He's going for 11th+ round value in startups as the 40th (or lower!!) RB off the boards. For a guy who may have been legitamately hurt all last year...that's way too low.I'm buying at that price!

 

[Fear & Loathing]

It's hard to really over-react with 30-year-old running backs. I've got Westbrook dropping a full tier, all the way down to No. 23 -- directly behind LT2, Reggie Bush and Kevin Smith.

Concerns: age, injury history, and expected workload going forward.

So much of his value was tied up in 2009. I'm not saying he can't still be useful in '09, but chances are he won't put in that last dominant season that Westbrook owners were hoping for.

I'm a Westbrook owner, and my realistic hope level for his value in 2009 and beyond just dropped through the floor.

 

[jek187]

Hey F&L,

I love your rankings, and think they are the single best dynasty resource on the Internet. They make a wonderful guideline for me when I do my own rankings, since where we disagree is often a point of great interest, and usually a time to really learn about a given player.

Is there any chance of getting quick & dirty TE list? (I didn't see one on Rotoworld or your blog.) I'm mainly looking to see how you value the rookie TEs relative to the vets in the league. I can't really seem to get excited about any of them. Either way, tyvm for making your work public. It is very appreciated.

 

[PNRZ]

Hey F&L,

I love your rankings, and think they are the single best dynasty resource on the Internet. They make a wonderful guideline for me when I do my own rankings, since where we disagree is often a point of great interest, and usually a time to really learn about a given player.

Is there any chance of getting quick & dirty TE list? (I didn't see one on Rotoworld or your blog.) I'm mainly looking to see how you value the rookie TEs relative to the vets in the league. I can't really seem to get excited about any of them. Either way, tyvm for making your work public. It is very appreciated.

http://blogs.rotoworld.com/Fantasy_Footbal...t_ends.php#more

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Hey F&L,

I love your rankings, and think they are the single best dynasty resource on the Internet. They make a wonderful guideline for me when I do my own rankings, since where we disagree is often a point of great interest, and usually a time to really learn about a given player.

Is there any chance of getting quick & dirty TE list? (I didn't see one on Rotoworld or your blog.) I'm mainly looking to see how you value the rookie TEs relative to the vets in the league. I can't really seem to get excited about any of them. Either way, tyvm for making your work public. It is very appreciated.

Thanks for the kind words, jek.Here's the TE list I did for Rotoworld's Pancake Blocks blog a few weeks ago. I'd probably raise Chase Coffman and Cornelius Ingram a bit since then.

Edit to add: I think I'd move Dustin Keller and Owen Daniels up a bit too. Love me some Dustin Keller.

 

[Goat Herders]

I appreciate your analysis but with regard to WHite and the comments above, I couldn't disagree more.

He isn't that good. He's often out of shape.

And? His "not good" and "out of shape" self has produced 1800 rush yards and 22 touchdowns the last two years. ANd he's dropped 25 pounds this offseason.

His value has always piggybacked off of Albert Haynesworth and last year Chris Johnson. Haynesworth is gone, so the Titans won't be able to take the air out of the ball as much. The Titans want to get Johnson more involved, so that and the Haynesworth loss mean a lesser role for White (as predicted in 2008).

You have this all wrong. The loss of Haynesworth means the offense will try and grind it out even more. Big Al was key to stuffing the middle and shortening the oppositions drives. Opponents couldn't try to grind the Titans with a power run game because Haynesworth would eat it up. Now that folks should have more success on the ground against the Titans, Fisher and company will respond in kind by trying to zap even more of the clock when they have the ball. Collins, Gage, and Washington aren't going to be getting in to many shootouts. Grinding is White, not Johnson.

The Titans want to get Johnson more involved,

No, the Titans want to get Johnson the ball more often in situations where he can be effective. Having him in for 12 straight plays doesn't accomplish that. Johnson will be spelled more often this year then last because his biggest strength is his speed and agility. Those traits diminish much more quickly if he's shouldering the load. Having Lendale taking the rock on 2nd and 2 and on 3rd and 1 keeps CJ much more fresh for 1st and 10. Don't confuse "getting Johnson more involved" with "giving Johnson the ball more often." Its nowhere near the same thing.

Goal-line vultures may carry your team for stretches in a redraft league, but TDs are too fickle from year-to-year.

Agree that TDs are usually fickle. But when a man's "niche" is to get the ball when the team is inside the 3 yard line, and he's proven to be very good at that role, the fickleness subsides. Mike Alstott, Zack Crockett, and Eddie George were all quality dynasty players long after their yardage numbers took a nose dive.

His contract is up after this year, and I don't see another team giving him 200+ carries in 2010 and beyond.

Another team won't have to. I'd bet dollars to donuts that White signs a 3-4 year extension with Tennessee at the end of the year. He's a perfect compliment to Johnson and as long as they feed him at the goalline, he'll remain happy with that role. Lendale White is many things, but he's not nearly as stupid as people think. He knows he can be an 800/10 guy for a contender for the next few years and not have to change addresses. I'd be confident in having him as a RB2 or high RB3 for the next 3-4 seasons.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

You have this all wrong. The loss of Haynesworth means the offense will try and grind it out even more. Big Al was key to stuffing the middle and shortening the oppositions drives. Opponents couldn't try to grind the Titans with a power run game because Haynesworth would eat it up. Now that folks should have more success on the ground against the Titans, Fisher and company will respond in kind by trying to zap even more of the clock when they have the ball. Collins, Gage, and Washington aren't going to be getting in to many shootouts. Grinding is White, not Johnson.

You have no fact base to assert this. Others have shown compelling analysis that, last year, Lendale White was used a lot more when the Titans were leading by 7+ points. In all other situations, CJ carried the load. So if they lose Haynesworth and the Titans suffer, they will be playing from behind more (or at least leading by 7+ points less frequently). Which means CJ = more carries, Lendale = fewer carries.Unless you can come up with: a) a different fact base, or b) convince people that losing Haynesworth won't impact the defense, then your conclusion is erroneous.

No, the Titans want to get Johnson the ball more often in situations where he can be effective. Having him in for 12 straight plays doesn't accomplish that. Johnson will be spelled more often this year then last because his biggest strength is his speed and agility. Those traits diminish much more quickly if he's shouldering the load. Having Lendale taking the rock on 2nd and 2 and on 3rd and 1 keeps CJ much more fresh for 1st and 10. Don't confuse "getting Johnson more involved" with "giving Johnson the ball more often." Its nowhere near the same thing.

Again, you have no basis to assert this. Where do you get the idea that CJ will be used LESS? Point to any link where there is an indication the coaching staff wants CJ to get fewer touches.

 

[FUBAR]

You have this all wrong. The loss of Haynesworth means the offense will try and grind it out even more. Big Al was key to stuffing the middle and shortening the oppositions drives. Opponents couldn't try to grind the Titans with a power run game because Haynesworth would eat it up. Now that folks should have more success on the ground against the Titans, Fisher and company will respond in kind by trying to zap even more of the clock when they have the ball. Collins, Gage, and Washington aren't going to be getting in to many shootouts. Grinding is White, not Johnson.

You have no fact base to assert this. Others have shown compelling analysis that, last year, Lendale White was used a lot more when the Titans were leading by 7+ points. In all other situations, CJ carried the load. So if they lose Haynesworth and the Titans suffer, they will be playing from behind more (or at least leading by 7+ points less frequently). Which means CJ = more carries, Lendale = fewer carries.Unless you can come up with: a) a different fact base, or b) convince people that losing Haynesworth won't impact the defense, then your conclusion is erroneous.

No, the Titans want to get Johnson the ball more often in situations where he can be effective. Having him in for 12 straight plays doesn't accomplish that. Johnson will be spelled more often this year then last because his biggest strength is his speed and agility. Those traits diminish much more quickly if he's shouldering the load. Having Lendale taking the rock on 2nd and 2 and on 3rd and 1 keeps CJ much more fresh for 1st and 10. Don't confuse "getting Johnson more involved" with "giving Johnson the ball more often." Its nowhere near the same thing.

Again, you have no basis to assert this. Where do you get the idea that CJ will be used LESS? Point to any link where there is an indication the coaching staff wants CJ to get fewer touches.

If you look at how CJ was used as a rusher last year, it's pretty clear they want him to have 15-19 carries in a game. No more, no less. 3 games of 10-14 carries: 2.7 ypa

11 games of 15-19 carries: 5.4 ypa

1 game of 20+ carries: 3.7 ypa

He is more effective when he gets more than 14 carries, but his one game of more than 20 carries, against Green Bay was not a good game for him. He didn't break any long runs and his average wasn't good. In the same game, LenDale broke off a 54 yard carry; also the Pack were amongst the worst teams against the run. Granted, one game doesn't make a trend and may be meaningless, but as a Titans fan I have no doubt that I don't want CJ to carry the ball 20+ times in a game. Actually, the more I look at the stats and not just memory, the clearer it is that 15-19 carries is optimal.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Averaging 5+ yards per rush up to 19 rushes, but less than four on 20 or more carries is a hell of a trick. Mathematically, I mean...

19*5 = 95

20* 4 = 80

So I guess he'll lose 15 yards on that last carry? Or do you mean that if he knows he's going to carry the ball 20 times or more it will affect his performance on the first 19 carries?

Similarly...

3*14 = 42

5*19 = 95

So you're arguing that on carries 15-19 he'll average 10+ yards per carry?

 

[gianmarco]

Averaging 5+ yards per rush up to 19 rushes, but less than four on 20 or more carries is a hell of a trick. Mathematically, I mean...19*5 = 9520* 4 = 80So I guess he'll lose 15 yards on that last carry? Or do you mean that if he knows he's going to carry the ball 20 times or more it will affect his performance on the first 19 carries? Similarly...3*14 = 425*19 = 95So you're arguing that on carries 15-19 he'll average 10+ yards per carry?

That's a very faulty conclusion to draw by looking at YPC and # of carries in a game and concluding that he needs to get the # where he had the highest YPC. Maybe in every game he had <15, they planned on getting him more carries but he was doing so poorly they stopped giving him the ball. As pointed out above, if they had decided to give him a few more carries, it's not as if he would have exploded at a huge clip to get the average back up.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Drinen (IIRC) wrote a good article on Splits and why you need to think about them pretty hard before using them.

Actually, here it is.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

Averaging 5+ yards per rush up to 19 rushes, but less than four on 20 or more carries is a hell of a trick. Mathematically, I mean...19*5 = 9520* 4 = 80So I guess he'll lose 15 yards on that last carry? Or do you mean that if he knows he's going to carry the ball 20 times or more it will affect his performance on the first 19 carries? Similarly...3*14 = 425*19 = 95So you're arguing that on carries 15-19 he'll average 10+ yards per carry?

<_< That's a very faulty conclusion to draw by looking at YPC and # of carries in a game and concluding that he needs to get the # where he had the highest YPC. Maybe in every game he had <15, they planned on getting him more carries but he was doing so poorly they stopped giving him the ball. As pointed out above, if they had decided to give him a few more carries, it's not as if he would have exploded at a huge clip to get the average back up.

Yeah, that was a great post indeed. People in the SP make incorrect conclusions about splits all the time.

 

[Couch Potato]

I just want Fear&Loathing to stop screwing around with meaningless things like his job, family, and life, and get busy updating his blog for WR and TE.

Yeah, I know he made a list for Rotoworld but it's not as deep and complete as the blog is.

The nerve of the guy trying to get away with such things.

 

[FUBAR]

Averaging 5+ yards per rush up to 19 rushes, but less than four on 20 or more carries is a hell of a trick. Mathematically, I mean...19*5 = 9520* 4 = 80So I guess he'll lose 15 yards on that last carry? Or do you mean that if he knows he's going to carry the ball 20 times or more it will affect his performance on the first 19 carries? Similarly...3*14 = 425*19 = 95So you're arguing that on carries 15-19 he'll average 10+ yards per carry?

It's the rest between carries 4-5, 6-7, 8-10, etc. that matter. If the game goes into OT or the Titans are in position to run out the clock after they've spaced his carries out throughout the game the extra carries certainly won't affect the first 19. They don't want to make him carry the ball as often as workhorse RBs do and he's better off for it. While the other top players on the D get worn down, CJ and White stay relatively fresh. Nothing earth shattering as compared to other RBBCs, but there is no reason to think it will change either - and as a CJ owner, I don't want it to.

 

[FUBAR]

Drinen (IIRC) wrote a good article on Splits and why you need to think about them pretty hard before using them.

Actually, here it is.

I am not trying to convince you to ignore splits altogether — in some situations they are meaningful. For instance, Larry Johnson’s 2005 early season / late season split was indicative of a role change and is certainly relevant. I am just reminding you that you need not force-fit some theory to explain the splits you see. There may simply be no explanation.

I'm not forcing a theory here, as a Titans fan it's what I saw and the stats bear it out. Again, it's not that CJ needs a "pitch count", it's more like hockey. You didn't see Crosby on the ice the entire game.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

FUBAR... take a look at the games Johnson carried it 15-19 times. How'd he do on carries 1-14 in those games?

Why are his stats better for the first 14 carries in games for which he ultimately carried it 15-19 times than his first 14 carries when he ended up with 14 or fewer?

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

Drinen (IIRC) wrote a good article on Splits and why you need to think about them pretty hard before using them.

Actually, here it is.

I am not trying to convince you to ignore splits altogether — in some situations they are meaningful. For instance, Larry Johnson’s 2005 early season / late season split was indicative of a role change and is certainly relevant. I am just reminding you that you need not force-fit some theory to explain the splits you see. There may simply be no explanation.

I'm not forcing a theory here, as a Titans fan it's what I saw and the stats bear it out. Again, it's not that CJ needs a "pitch count", it's more like hockey. You didn't see Crosby on the ice the entire game.

How do the stats bear it out when you have a sample size of 1?

 

[Biabreakable]

I just want Fear&Loathing to stop screwing around with meaningless things like his job, family, and life, and get busy updating his blog for WR and TE. Yeah, I know he made a list for Rotoworld but it's not as deep and complete as the blog is.The nerve of the guy trying to get away with such things.

I know right?I used to be able to count on F&L not getting so caught up in rookie hype and have a pretty win now approach to his rankings also.Maybe what I am looking at is wrong.12. Ronnie Brown, MIA | Age: 27.7 | Contract: Thru 2009 | Value Score: 7313. *Marshawn Lynch, BUF | Age: 23.4 | Contract: Thru 2012 | Value Score: 7314. Brandon Jacobs, NYG | Age: 27.2 | Contract: Thru 2012 | Value Score: 7115. Jonathan Stewart, CAR | Age: 22.5 | Contract: Thru 2012 | Value Score: 7016. Darren McFadden, OAK | Age: 22.0 | Contract: Thru 2013 | Value Score: 6917. Steve Slaton, HOU | Age: 23.7 | Contract: Thru 2011 | Value Score: 6818. Pierre Thomas, NO | Age: 24.7 | Contract: Thru 2009 | Value Score: 6819. Clinton Portis, WAS | Age: 28.0 | Contract: Thru 2011 | Value Score: 67TIER FOUR20. LaDainian Tomlinson, SD | Age: 30.2 | Contract: Thru 2011 | Value Score: 6021. #Reggie Bush, NO | Age: 24.5 | Contract: Thru 2011 | Value Score: 6022. Kevin Smith, DET | Age: 22.7 | Contract: Thru 2010 | Value Score: 5923. Brian Westbrook, PHI | Age: 30.0 | Contract: Thru 2010 | Value Score: 5824. Donald Brown, IND | Age: 22.4 | Value Score: 57No way I would take McFadden over LT Westbrook or Portis. But at least he starts. Unlike Stewart.Makes me wonder how much these rankings are based on perception/trade value because no way I can see these guys living up to this draft position over the next 2-3 years. And Westbrook, Portis and LT will more than likely out-perform this draft position over the same time frame.

 

[Biabreakable]

I feel like I am starting to sound like a broken record.

But I wanted to talk about another angle I have been considering in regards to these aging FF stars.

Moss has been the best FF WR from day 1 for basicly his entire career. At some point the wheels will fall off. Just as they did with Marvin.

Same thing with LT he has been the best RB for almost a decade now but at some point he won't be.

I just want to say that I am not blind to the fact that nostalgia may influence me a bit in regard to these future HOF players.

 

[EBF]

And Westbrook, Portis and LT will more than likely out-perform this draft position over the same time frame.

Dynasty is about tomorrow, not yesterday. I think your outlook on these backs is highly optimistic.

 

[Biabreakable]

And Westbrook, Portis and LT will more than likely out-perform this draft position over the same time frame.

Dynasty is about tomorrow, not yesterday. I think your outlook on these backs is highly optimistic.

Well I try to use facts as much as possible to base my decisions on. Of course that just re-inforces a more conservative approach.I think the odds are very much in my favor that 2 of those 3 will finish top 12 this year.Beyond that it is more sketchy.Also looking at Larry Johnson here who will be 30 and Jamal Lewis who I think will also be 30.Will be great to compare these 2 more power RB to LT and Westbrook more speed RB.Portis shouldn't really even be in the conversation but is anyways.

 

[awesomeness]

I just want Fear&Loathing to stop screwing around with meaningless things like his job, family, and life, and get busy updating his blog for WR and TE.

Yeah, I know he made a list for Rotoworld but it's not as deep and complete as the blog is.

The nerve of the guy trying to get away with such things.

I know right?I used to be able to count on F&L not getting so caught up in rookie hype and have a pretty win now approach to his rankings also.

Maybe what I am looking at is wrong.

12. Ronnie Brown, MIA | Age: 27.7 | Contract: Thru 2009 | Value Score: 73

13. *Marshawn Lynch, BUF | Age: 23.4 | Contract: Thru 2012 | Value Score: 73

14. Brandon Jacobs, NYG | Age: 27.2 | Contract: Thru 2012 | Value Score: 71

15. Jonathan Stewart, CAR | Age: 22.5 | Contract: Thru 2012 | Value Score: 70

16. Darren McFadden, OAK | Age: 22.0 | Contract: Thru 2013 | Value Score: 69

17. Steve Slaton, HOU | Age: 23.7 | Contract: Thru 2011 | Value Score: 68

18. Pierre Thomas, NO | Age: 24.7 | Contract: Thru 2009 | Value Score: 68

19. Clinton Portis, WAS | Age: 28.0 | Contract: Thru 2011 | Value Score: 67

TIER FOUR

20. LaDainian Tomlinson, SD | Age: 30.2 | Contract: Thru 2011 | Value Score: 60

21. #Reggie Bush, NO | Age: 24.5 | Contract: Thru 2011 | Value Score: 60

22. Kevin Smith, DET | Age: 22.7 | Contract: Thru 2010 | Value Score: 59

23. Brian Westbrook, PHI | Age: 30.0 | Contract: Thru 2010 | Value Score: 58

24. Donald Brown, IND | Age: 22.4 | Value Score: 57

No way I would take McFadden over LT Westbrook or Portis. But at least he starts. Unlike Stewart.

Makes me wonder how much these rankings are based on perception/trade value because no way I can see these guys living up to this draft position over the next 2-3 years. And Westbrook, Portis and LT will more than likely out-perform this draft position over the same time frame.

F&L rankings look pretty spot on to me. Im not a fan of Mcfadden at all, but i would much rather have him than LT. If i had Westbrook i wouldn't trade him for McFadden, although that may be because i'm an Eagles homer/optimist. Portis is in the same tier as McFadden and only 2 'value points' less then McFadden so things are pretty subjective when the rankings are real close. On the other hand, I would trade any of Portis, LT, or Westbrook in a heartbeat for Johnathon Stewart. Stewart may be one of the top 5 most talented RBs in the league right now, doesn't matter if he doesn't have a starting job right away, chances are with his talent he's going to have more than a few years as a top 10 fantasy RB.

 

[Biabreakable]

I just want Fear&Loathing to stop screwing around with meaningless things like his job, family, and life, and get busy updating his blog for WR and TE.

Yeah, I know he made a list for Rotoworld but it's not as deep and complete as the blog is.

The nerve of the guy trying to get away with such things.

I know right?I used to be able to count on F&L not getting so caught up in rookie hype and have a pretty win now approach to his rankings also.

Maybe what I am looking at is wrong.

12. Ronnie Brown, MIA | Age: 27.7 | Contract: Thru 2009 | Value Score: 73

13. *Marshawn Lynch, BUF | Age: 23.4 | Contract: Thru 2012 | Value Score: 73

14. Brandon Jacobs, NYG | Age: 27.2 | Contract: Thru 2012 | Value Score: 71

15. Jonathan Stewart, CAR | Age: 22.5 | Contract: Thru 2012 | Value Score: 70

16. Darren McFadden, OAK | Age: 22.0 | Contract: Thru 2013 | Value Score: 69

17. Steve Slaton, HOU | Age: 23.7 | Contract: Thru 2011 | Value Score: 68

18. Pierre Thomas, NO | Age: 24.7 | Contract: Thru 2009 | Value Score: 68

19. Clinton Portis, WAS | Age: 28.0 | Contract: Thru 2011 | Value Score: 67

TIER FOUR

20. LaDainian Tomlinson, SD | Age: 30.2 | Contract: Thru 2011 | Value Score: 60

21. #Reggie Bush, NO | Age: 24.5 | Contract: Thru 2011 | Value Score: 60

22. Kevin Smith, DET | Age: 22.7 | Contract: Thru 2010 | Value Score: 59

23. Brian Westbrook, PHI | Age: 30.0 | Contract: Thru 2010 | Value Score: 58

24. Donald Brown, IND | Age: 22.4 | Value Score: 57

No way I would take McFadden over LT Westbrook or Portis. But at least he starts. Unlike Stewart.

Makes me wonder how much these rankings are based on perception/trade value because no way I can see these guys living up to this draft position over the next 2-3 years. And Westbrook, Portis and LT will more than likely out-perform this draft position over the same time frame.

F&L rankings look pretty spot on to me. Im not a fan of Mcfadden at all, but i would much rather have him than LT. If i had Westbrook i wouldn't trade him for McFadden, although that may be because i'm an Eagles homer/optimist. Portis is in the same tier as McFadden and only 2 'value points' less then McFadden so things are pretty subjective when the rankings are real close. On the other hand, I would trade any of Portis, LT, or Westbrook in a heartbeat for Johnathon Stewart. Stewart may be one of the top 5 most talented RBs in the league right now, doesn't matter if he doesn't have a starting job right away, chances are with his talent he's going to have more than a few years as a top 10 fantasy RB.

So when is Stewart going to be a top 10 RB if you are correct?It won't be this year any more than he was last year. And DeAngelo Williams is still signed in 2010.

Then what happens when Williams signs a long term contract?

How long did people wait on Michael Turner to become useful? 5 years?

Sorry but even if your right and he is that talented doesen't make him a good pick this high at all.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

I just want Fear&Loathing to stop screwing around with meaningless things like his job, family, and life, and get busy updating his blog for WR and TE.

Yeah, I know he made a list for Rotoworld but it's not as deep and complete as the blog is.

The nerve of the guy trying to get away with such things.

I know right?I used to be able to count on F&L not getting so caught up in rookie hype and have a pretty win now approach to his rankings also.

Maybe what I am looking at is wrong.

12. Ronnie Brown, MIA | Age: 27.7 | Contract: Thru 2009 | Value Score: 73

13. *Marshawn Lynch, BUF | Age: 23.4 | Contract: Thru 2012 | Value Score: 73

14. Brandon Jacobs, NYG | Age: 27.2 | Contract: Thru 2012 | Value Score: 71

15. Jonathan Stewart, CAR | Age: 22.5 | Contract: Thru 2012 | Value Score: 70

16. Darren McFadden, OAK | Age: 22.0 | Contract: Thru 2013 | Value Score: 69

17. Steve Slaton, HOU | Age: 23.7 | Contract: Thru 2011 | Value Score: 68

18. Pierre Thomas, NO | Age: 24.7 | Contract: Thru 2009 | Value Score: 68

19. Clinton Portis, WAS | Age: 28.0 | Contract: Thru 2011 | Value Score: 67

TIER FOUR

20. LaDainian Tomlinson, SD | Age: 30.2 | Contract: Thru 2011 | Value Score: 60

21. #Reggie Bush, NO | Age: 24.5 | Contract: Thru 2011 | Value Score: 60

22. Kevin Smith, DET | Age: 22.7 | Contract: Thru 2010 | Value Score: 59

23. Brian Westbrook, PHI | Age: 30.0 | Contract: Thru 2010 | Value Score: 58

24. Donald Brown, IND | Age: 22.4 | Value Score: 57

No way I would take McFadden over LT Westbrook or Portis. But at least he starts. Unlike Stewart.

Makes me wonder how much these rankings are based on perception/trade value because no way I can see these guys living up to this draft position over the next 2-3 years. And Westbrook, Portis and LT will more than likely out-perform this draft position over the same time frame.

F&L rankings look pretty spot on to me. Im not a fan of Mcfadden at all, but i would much rather have him than LT. If i had Westbrook i wouldn't trade him for McFadden, although that may be because i'm an Eagles homer/optimist. Portis is in the same tier as McFadden and only 2 'value points' less then McFadden so things are pretty subjective when the rankings are real close. On the other hand, I would trade any of Portis, LT, or Westbrook in a heartbeat for Johnathon Stewart. Stewart may be one of the top 5 most talented RBs in the league right now, doesn't matter if he doesn't have a starting job right away, chances are with his talent he's going to have more than a few years as a top 10 fantasy RB.

So when is Stewart going to be a top 10 RB if you are correct?It won't be this year any more than he was last year. And DeAngelo Williams is still signed in 2010.

Then what happens when Williams signs a long term contract?

How long did people wait on Michael Turner to become useful? 5 years?

Sorry but even if your right and he is that talented doesen't make him a good pick this high at all.

Stewart's value is very much dependent on league and owner specificity. What does your roster need more -- an aging starter who will help you on a weekly basis or a talented young stud to build around? Which is harder to acquire in your league?Re: the original question of why I have guys like McFadden & Stewart rated more highly than LT2, Westbrook & Portis. The answer is that Dynasty league RBs are a much different animal than QBs or WRs. The dropoff is much more sudden, and it's much more damaging to get left holding the bag when they reach the cliff. Age 30 mows RBs down at such an impressive clip that it has to be respected. Stud QBs and WRs blow right by 30 with nary a problem.

I do believe in the current season being more valuable than future, but EBF is right: you have to value tomorrow more than yesterday. With RBs, that's even moreso than with QBs and WRs.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

I just want Fear&Loathing to stop screwing around with meaningless things like his job, family, and life, and get busy updating his blog for WR and TE. Yeah, I know he made a list for Rotoworld but it's not as deep and complete as the blog is.The nerve of the guy trying to get away with such things.

Hey CP,I don't want to make any promises b/c I haven't been following through lately, but I'll try to get everything up to date in the next day or two.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

You have this all wrong. The loss of Haynesworth means the offense will try and grind it out even more. Big Al was key to stuffing the middle and shortening the oppositions drives. Opponents couldn't try to grind the Titans with a power run game because Haynesworth would eat it up. Now that folks should have more success on the ground against the Titans, Fisher and company will respond in kind by trying to zap even more of the clock when they have the ball. Collins, Gage, and Washington aren't going to be getting in to many shootouts. Grinding is White, not Johnson.

You have no fact base to assert this. Others have shown compelling analysis that, last year, Lendale White was used a lot more when the Titans were leading by 7+ points. In all other situations, CJ carried the load. So if they lose Haynesworth and the Titans suffer, they will be playing from behind more (or at least leading by 7+ points less frequently). Which means CJ = more carries, Lendale = fewer carries.Unless you can come up with: a) a different fact base, or b) convince people that losing Haynesworth won't impact the defense, then your conclusion is erroneous.

No, the Titans want to get Johnson the ball more often in situations where he can be effective. Having him in for 12 straight plays doesn't accomplish that. Johnson will be spelled more often this year then last because his biggest strength is his speed and agility. Those traits diminish much more quickly if he's shouldering the load. Having Lendale taking the rock on 2nd and 2 and on 3rd and 1 keeps CJ much more fresh for 1st and 10. Don't confuse "getting Johnson more involved" with "giving Johnson the ball more often." Its nowhere near the same thing.

Again, you have no basis to assert this. Where do you get the idea that CJ will be used LESS? Point to any link where there is an indication the coaching staff wants CJ to get fewer touches.

With all due respect to Goat Herders, not only are there no facts to assert it, there are facts that dispute it. Check out White's 2007 season as a starter. He was cruising at mid-season with three straight 100-yard performances, feasting on Haynesworth and a great defense allowing the Titans to play grind it out football. White averaged close to 30 carries for 4 straight weeks leading up to Week 10, when Haynesworth began a string of 3 missed games with a hamstring injury. With Haynesworth out those 3 weeks, White posted his 3 worst performances of the season, averaging just 10 carries and less than 30 yards per game. The Titans were forced to alter their offensive style when the defense couldn't stymie the other team, and even as a starter White didn't see nearly as much field time.

 

[Couch Potato]

I just want Fear&Loathing to stop screwing around with meaningless things like his job, family, and life, and get busy updating his blog for WR and TE. Yeah, I know he made a list for Rotoworld but it's not as deep and complete as the blog is.The nerve of the guy trying to get away with such things.

Hey CP,I don't want to make any promises b/c I haven't been following through lately, but I'll try to get everything up to date in the next day or two.

Hey Chris, I was playing with you. Relax, keep your priorities as they should be, and if/when you update your rankings on the blog, that's great. But no pressure from the peanut gallery; that wasn't my intent. I just appreciate all that you do (including the stuff at Pancake Blocks btw).

 

[Biabreakable]

I just want Fear&Loathing to stop screwing around with meaningless things like his job, family, and life, and get busy updating his blog for WR and TE. Yeah, I know he made a list for Rotoworld but it's not as deep and complete as the blog is.The nerve of the guy trying to get away with such things.

Hey CP,I don't want to make any promises b/c I haven't been following through lately, but I'll try to get everything up to date in the next day or two.

Hey Chris, I was playing with you. Relax, keep your priorities as they should be, and if/when you update your rankings on the blog, that's great. But no pressure from the peanut gallery; that wasn't my intent. I just appreciate all that you do (including the stuff at Pancake Blocks btw).

I was just joking also. You should know that.Cheers.

 

[Tau837]

Dynasty is about today and tomorrow, not yesterday.

Fixed.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Dynasty is about today and tomorrow, not yesterday.

Fixed.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

I just want Fear&Loathing to stop screwing around with meaningless things like his job, family, and life, and get busy updating his blog for WR and TE. Yeah, I know he made a list for Rotoworld but it's not as deep and complete as the blog is.The nerve of the guy trying to get away with such things.

Hey CP,I don't want to make any promises b/c I haven't been following through lately, but I'll try to get everything up to date in the next day or two.

Hey Chris, I was playing with you. Relax, keep your priorities as they should be, and if/when you update your rankings on the blog, that's great. But no pressure from the peanut gallery; that wasn't my intent. I just appreciate all that you do (including the stuff at Pancake Blocks btw).

CP and Biabreakable,Thanks, as always, for the support.Wide Receivers and Tight Ends are now updated. I admittedly didn't put quite as much thought into the last "Grab Bag" section of receivers after a couple of hours or reorganizing, adding rookies, etc. I'll try to get QBs & RBs fully up to date this week as well.

 

[Sebowski]

That is mighty high for Keller (#5). Pretty aggressive on Olsen too.

 

[travdogg]

That is mighty high for Keller (#5). Pretty aggressive on Olsen too.

Could be, personally I wouldn't be shocked if either of them outproduced Winslow. Tony Gonzalez might be a little low, I kinda view him as the TE equivalent of Randy Moss. Yeah, he's older than most, but there isn't any reason he won't be the #1 TE this year and a weekly advantage over your opponent, especially playing with the best QB he's had since Trent Green's prime.At WR, I think DeSean Jackson is a tier low, I'd have a really hard time taking guys like Roy Williams, Anthony Gonzalez and Terrell Owens over him. But I can understand the hesitation to bump Jackson up right now, I just think he'll be ranked up around the top of tier 4 or maybe the bottom of tier 3 by about week 4. Kinda think he may be this year's Roddy White.Wes Welker seems a tad high to me, I just can't see him doing better than the 1,100-8 he got when his QB was playing at a once in a lifetime level. His ceiling seems too low for him to be ranked that close to guys like Boldin and Colston. I'm kind of surprised Marshall didn't drop further. I suppose there is a good chance that if he's dealt he'll go to a team with a better QB, but at least now he's in a pass happy offense...probably.Finally at RB, I think either Marion Barber is too high or Felix Jones is too low, probably both. I'd gladly take Felix over guys like Ryan Grant. Just seems like he could be an elite play maker. Barber on the other hand, just seems like a guy who is only going to go down in value, I'm not entirely sure he's even in the right tier, but I understand why he's there since he does get in the end zone. Still, for a guy whose likely to lose playing time,especially in the passing game and has never cracked 1,000 yards its tough for me to see him as top-10 dynasty back. Not saying Jones should be ahead of Barber (though a year from now that may be the case) but they just seem like they should be a bit closer.

 

[Sebowski]

That is mighty high for Keller (#5). Pretty aggressive on Olsen too.

Could be, personally I wouldn't be shocked if either of them outproduced Winslow. Tony Gonzalez might be a little low, I kinda view him as the TE equivalent of Randy Moss. Yeah, he's older than most, but there isn't any reason he won't be the #1 TE this year and a weekly advantage over your opponent, especially playing with the best QB he's had since Trent Green's prime.

I've got Miller and Cooley ahead of Keller and Olsen.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

Surprised to see Harry Douglas so low. Just not much upside in your opinion?

 

[Instinctive]

Surprised to see Harry Douglas so low. Just not much upside in your opinion?

I snatched Douglas on a lot of dynasty teams last year, but I think his upside is definitely limited and have been trading him now at a suprisingly high value relative to his situation with the intent of getting him back cheaper 2 years from now. Michael Jenkins is no slouch as a #2, Gonzalez is going to get a lot of targets, they have a very solid running game, and there have been rave camp reports (GAH I CANT FIND THE LINK!!!) about rookie WR Aaron Kelly, who will compete with Douglas. I think Douglas is that low because he probably won't get a shot for 3 years, and 2 years from now his pricetag will be the same and you can have used that roster spot for someone useful.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Surprised to see Harry Douglas so low. Just not much upside in your opinion?

See post #3259 further up the page. I just don't see why I would ever carry him instead of a player who has a chance to make a difference for me in the next two years.