Dynasty Rankings (3 Viewers)

[Fear & Loathing]

Can't see it. The player values get too far out of whack with reality. While it sounds fun, it takes too much away from the core concepts of player evaluations.

Not even close. It takes nothing away from "core concepts of player evaluations," and the player values aren't out of whack at all. The only thing that changes about player values is that players on good teams gain more value and mediocre players on poor teams lose value. If you have a guy like Calvin Johnson, you're not going to deal him away just because he plays for the Lions. He still has a ton of value.

Then, if you hate H2H for playoffs.....go to a 4 or 5 week total points playoff system (not H2H playoffs)...takes away the bad luck F&L fears without bastardizing the playoffs and league trying to run concurrent with NFL playoffs. (Sorry F&L...I can't think of a better term!)

Why would I want to get away from running concurrent with the best NFL games of the year? That's the whole point. The format also works perfectly with Dynasty/Keeper leagues because it promotes trading and helps keep the lower rung teams from losing interest or getting steamrolled on a yearly basis. It also forces the Jedi owners to have to forfeit young talent and/or draft picks ... so it becomes a good deal more challenging for one or two teams to dominate the league every year.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Can u send me a link to a league like this? I'd be interested to see the late-season transactions. Sounds like you essentially have to try to "buy" a championship ala the Yankees.

That's not necessarily the case at all. Different personalities emerge. We have one guy that tries the Yankees approach every year and tries to go out and buy superstars on the Super Bowl favorites. He has one championship in 10 years. We have another couple of guys that love building a young roster full of "their guys" and refuse to give up their talented young, non-playoff guys to "chase the cup." I tend to try to balance it out by keeping a young nucleus and trading for playoff chips that can help me depending on which teams I like going into the playoffs. It ends up being pretty cool to see the different avenues and strategies that each owner develops as his team takes on his personality.

Last year's transactions. It starts to pick up a bit in late December: http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...p;qpid=10636614

This does sound somewhat challenging though, as long as it wouldn't involve me to have to totally sell off on most of my developing studs just to "chase the cup".

How much "cheese" are we talking about for the reg. season vs. playoff winner?

And those points, are they essentially the spread that you have over the competition? +50 points advantage in a weekly H2H matchup?

There is no H2H in the playoffs. Most total points among the 6 contenders by the end of the Super Bowl is the winner. It makes it fun to follow along each week (hell, each game) to see who is leading the pack and who is falling behind. As far as "cheese," it doesn't really matter to me. We can do $50 a team, $100 a team, bragging rights, whatever ... and we can break it down however. IMO, playoff winner should get the majority as he's the league champ.

 

[ChuckLiddell]

Can u send me a link to a league like this? I'd be interested to see the late-season transactions. Sounds like you essentially have to try to "buy" a championship ala the Yankees.

That's not necessarily the case at all. Different personalities emerge. We have one guy that tries the Yankees approach every year and tries to go out and buy superstars on the Super Bowl favorites. He has one championship in 10 years. We have another couple of guys that love building a young roster full of "their guys" and refuse to give up their talented young, non-playoff guys to "chase the cup." I tend to try to balance it out by keeping a young nucleus and trading for playoff chips that can help me depending on which teams I like going into the playoffs. It ends up being pretty cool to see the different avenues and strategies that each owner develops as his team takes on his personality.

Last year's transactions. It starts to pick up a bit in late December: http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...p;qpid=10636614

This does sound somewhat challenging though, as long as it wouldn't involve me to have to totally sell off on most of my developing studs just to "chase the cup".

How much "cheese" are we talking about for the reg. season vs. playoff winner?

And those points, are they essentially the spread that you have over the competition? +50 points advantage in a weekly H2H matchup?

There is no H2H in the playoffs. Most total points among the 6 contenders by the end of the Super Bowl is the winner. It makes it fun to follow along each week (hell, each game) to see who is leading the pack and who is falling behind. As far as "cheese," it doesn't really matter to me. We can do $50 a team, $100 a team, bragging rights, whatever ... and we can break it down however. IMO, playoff winner should get the majority as he's the league champ.

I think this format sounds like fun. There are no "cheatsheets" for this, and no consensus players to chase. It is a whole different game involving a whole different strategy. That is intriguing to me.I would be severely outclassed playing against you guys, but if you need a body to fill a spot, I would be interested in getting in on this.

As a disclosure before you answer me, I will do whatever it takes to get ahead of F&L in the first round so I can draft Percy Harvin, and trade him to F&L for 3 quality players and 1st round rookie picks for the next decade.

 

[renesauz]

Can't see it. The player values get too far out of whack with reality. While it sounds fun, it takes too much away from the core concepts of player evaluations.

Not even close. It takes nothing away from "core concepts of player evaluations," and the player values aren't out of whack at all. The only thing that changes about player values is that players on good teams gain more value and mediocre players on poor teams lose value. If you have a guy like Calvin Johnson, you're not going to deal him away just because he plays for the Lions. He still has a ton of value.

Then, if you hate H2H for playoffs.....go to a 4 or 5 week total points playoff system (not H2H playoffs)...takes away the bad luck F&L fears without bastardizing the playoffs and league trying to run concurrent with NFL playoffs. (Sorry F&L...I can't think of a better term!)

Why would I want to get away from running concurrent with the best NFL games of the year? That's the whole point. The format also works perfectly with Dynasty/Keeper leagues because it promotes trading and helps keep the lower rung teams from losing interest or getting steamrolled on a yearly basis. It also forces the Jedi owners to have to forfeit young talent and/or draft picks ... so it becomes a good deal more challenging for one or two teams to dominate the league every year.

I'm confused here....what good is making the playoffs on the back of guys like Calvin Johnson, only to have to sit him throughout the entire playoffs? Mediocre teams are suddenly contenders, and contenders are suddenly chump also-rans, unless they trade away those studs for anybody still likely to play deep into the playoffs? While I'm all about additional depth and strategy in any league...I just don't see the attraction for this. After all, there are tons of playoff contest leagues to help fill our fantasy addiction.I do understand the desire to make something like this work...I just can't see the positives coming close to outweighing the negatives. But hey....if it works for y'all...run with it and enjoy!

 

[Max Power]

F & L... Do you have any thoughts on Jared Cook, is he going to be the next big thing at TE?

 

[FUBAR]

Oh, one last thing before turning in for the night. I put this in the Hype Train thread, but it's worth posting here as well:

I offered Eddie Royal and my 2010 first-round pick for Percy Harvin in my long-time Dynasty league. I was turned down cold.



Stonewalled for now. I'll have to get more creative.

I'm not sure what part of this shocks me more...the offer or the fact that it was refused.

I Eddie Royal, but championships are won with game-changers, and Purple Haze was a game-changer in college. One of the major advantages Harvin will have over EzE is touchdowns, and that's a pretty important advantage. Late first-round picks are way overvalued. I try to trade mine away every year, often before the season starts. Why not use it now to trade for an asset that can help me win now and build for the future?

I like Harvin's potential, but let's not pretend he's proven himself yet. If you truly believe in him like we both did CJ and Peterson, then great. I'm not as sure about him as I was the other two. In 3 drafts I've had the chance to take him, in one I took Maclin, one Nicks, and the 3rd I took Harvin.

 

[Burning Sensation]

Thanks for the offer, but I'm not interested in joining this league with how the playoffs are set up to run through the actual NFL playoffs.

I also declined the invite due mostly to the fact that i am already in 4 dynasty leagues. However, i would have been willing to maybe do one more for a chance to play against some of the respected posters here at FBG, but i dont like the idea of fantasy playoffs during NFL playoffs. Mostly for the reasons already mentioned. Although maybe just as important, as much as i love fantasy football, when it comes to the playoffs, i enjoy just watching the games, and dont want to worry about fantasy football.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

I'm confused here....what good is making the playoffs on the back of guys like Calvin Johnson, only to have to sit him throughout the entire playoffs? Mediocre teams are suddenly contenders, and contenders are suddenly chump also-rans, unless they trade away those studs for anybody still likely to play deep into the playoffs? While I'm all about additional depth and strategy in any league...I just don't see the attraction for this. After all, there are tons of playoff contest leagues to help fill our fantasy addiction.

I do understand the desire to make something like this work...I just can't see the positives coming close to outweighing the negatives. But hey....if it works for y'all...run with it and enjoy!

Have you ever tried it? I've played in plenty of leagues that use regular season playoffs and a couple that use NFL playoffs. The NFL playoff leagues are far superior in every way ... enough so that I'll never go back to a Dynasty league that uses regular season playoffs. Re: the Calvin comment. I've had guys like S-Jax & Fitz as my nucleus for the past four years, and I never got to use them in the playoffs (until finally with Fitz last year). In that time I've won the league twice, finished second once and finished fourth once. You don't have to sell off young studs to win the title. While I didn't get to use Fitz & S-Jax in the playoffs, they still helped me to get to the playoffs and enjoy some homefield advantage. It's up to me to construct a team around them that will go deep in the playoffs.

I'd enjoy a FBG Dynasty league with guys from this thread, but like I said, I don't really have any interest unless it's with an NFL playoff format. If the guys who are signing up have serious reservations about the format, I'd advise against joining (it's not too late to back out now). This only works with a long-term commitment, and coming in with serious doubts is a bad idea. If we can get 12 who are excited and committed for a new challenge, cool. If not, no big deal.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Oh, one last thing before turning in for the night. I put this in the Hype Train thread, but it's worth posting here as well:

I offered Eddie Royal and my 2010 first-round pick for Percy Harvin in my long-time Dynasty league. I was turned down cold.



Stonewalled for now. I'll have to get more creative.

I'm not sure what part of this shocks me more...the offer or the fact that it was refused.

I Eddie Royal, but championships are won with game-changers, and Purple Haze was a game-changer in college. One of the major advantages Harvin will have over EzE is touchdowns, and that's a pretty important advantage. Late first-round picks are way overvalued. I try to trade mine away every year, often before the season starts. Why not use it now to trade for an asset that can help me win now and build for the future?

I like Harvin's potential, but let's not pretend he's proven himself yet. If you truly believe in him like we both did CJ and Peterson, then great. I'm not as sure about him as I was the other two. In 3 drafts I've had the chance to take him, in one I took Maclin, one Nicks, and the 3rd I took Harvin.

Harvin hasn't proven himself at the NFL level. I fail to see how that's relevant. Dynasty leagues are about anticipation, and I anticipate that he's going to be a game-changer. I never understand this belief in fantasy football that we have to wait for an ultra-talented player to prove himself. Doesn't that defeat the purpose? If I waited for Chris Johnson, or Adrian Peterson, or Calvin Johnson to prove themselves, then they would be on someone else's roster.

 

[Donnybrook]

1. Keenan Burton - A possession receiver with mid-4.5s speed.............2. Laurent Robinson - A deep threat with legitimate mid-4.3s speed.........

At the combine Burton ran a 4.43 and Robinson ran a 4.38.  That makes a difference of .05 rather than .2 that you are suggesting.  

 

[Fear & Loathing]

1. Keenan Burton - A possession receiver with mid-4.5s speed.............2. Laurent Robinson - A deep threat with legitimate mid-4.3s speed.........

At the combine Burton ran a 4.43 and Robinson ran a 4.38.  That makes a difference of .05 rather than .2 that you are suggesting.  

I didn't write that article.

 

[kremenull]

1. Keenan Burton - A possession receiver with mid-4.5s speed.............2. Laurent Robinson - A deep threat with legitimate mid-4.3s speed.........

At the combine Burton ran a 4.43 and Robinson ran a 4.38.  That makes a difference of .05 rather than .2 that you are suggesting.  

I didn't write that article.

No matter the combine numbers, Robinson plays faster than Burton from what I see on the field.

 

[Donnybrook]

1. Keenan Burton - A possession receiver with mid-4.5s speed.............2. Laurent Robinson - A deep threat with legitimate mid-4.3s speed.........

At the combine Burton ran a 4.43 and Robinson ran a 4.38.  That makes a difference of .05 rather than .2 that you are suggesting.  

I didn't write that article.

Sorry I was expecting the article to be in quotes. That Evan Silva fella should stop stretching the truth.  

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Poor Cornelius Ingram tore the same ACL exactly a year after he originally tore it.

It's a shame. He was having an excellent camp.

 

[Burning Sensation]

My Beckett/Rotoworld magazine selection from back in early May as the best Dynasty-league deep sleeper:

Texans coach Gary Kubiak praised undrafted rookie Arian Foster following Monday's training camp practice.

Kubiak gave Foster "an excellent chance to help this team." "It's obvious – he's impressive," Kubiak added. "He's kind of what you look for. He's a downhill runner. He's got a big body." Foster is in the mix for goal-line work.

http://www.houstontexans.com/news/Story.asp?STORY_ID=5414

Coach Gary Kubiak expressed frustration with rookie RB Arian Foster's recent hamstring injury."Yeah, he was a very impressive young man, and now he's missed some very valuable time," said Kubiak. "Arian has got to get in the training room and get his butt out here. He's a good football player, but he's got to stay out here." Chris Brown remains the favorite for backup duties

 

[PlasmaDogPlasma]

Poor Cornelius Ingram tore the same ACL exactly a year after he originally tore it.It's a shame. He was having an excellent camp.

That is a drag. Does anyone know if having multiple ACLs in the same knee reduces the chance of fully recovering? Can we expect CI back out there next fall?

 

[FUBAR]

Oh, one last thing before turning in for the night. I put this in the Hype Train thread, but it's worth posting here as well:

I offered Eddie Royal and my 2010 first-round pick for Percy Harvin in my long-time Dynasty league. I was turned down cold.



Stonewalled for now. I'll have to get more creative.

I'm not sure what part of this shocks me more...the offer or the fact that it was refused.

I Eddie Royal, but championships are won with game-changers, and Purple Haze was a game-changer in college. One of the major advantages Harvin will have over EzE is touchdowns, and that's a pretty important advantage. Late first-round picks are way overvalued. I try to trade mine away every year, often before the season starts. Why not use it now to trade for an asset that can help me win now and build for the future?

I like Harvin's potential, but let's not pretend he's proven himself yet. If you truly believe in him like we both did CJ and Peterson, then great. I'm not as sure about him as I was the other two. In 3 drafts I've had the chance to take him, in one I took Maclin, one Nicks, and the 3rd I took Harvin.

Harvin hasn't proven himself at the NFL level. I fail to see how that's relevant. Dynasty leagues are about anticipation, and I anticipate that he's going to be a game-changer. I never understand this belief in fantasy football that we have to wait for an ultra-talented player to prove himself. Doesn't that defeat the purpose? If I waited for Chris Johnson, or Adrian Peterson, or Calvin Johnson to prove themselves, then they would be on someone else's roster.

You're right, no player who played well in college ever busted, so Harvin is certainly a game changer. No risk there.

 

[seabronc]

I'm interested in everyone's thoughts on the 2nd/3rd tier of rookie RBs--

With the lack of depth after Moreno/Wells/Brown/McCoy/Greene, I'm curious about the hype around rookie RBs who went undrafted or were picked quite late. I'm mainly thinking of five guys, all in decent situations and receiving good training camp comments:

R. Jennings

A. Foster

J. Davis

G. Johnson

B. Scott

I'm wary that it may just be hype. I think too many people have short memories of last year, and think there will be 8-10 RBs who have good value. Do we really think any of these have what it takes to be successful, or are they simply the best available to drum up for RB sleepers in a weak class? In a couple dynasty leagues with late rookie drafts, I'm getting out of the 2nd and 3rd rounds and letting other guys take them... I say puff stories in a year where we frankly wish there were better RB options.

I'm less interested in why you think one of these specific guys will make it, more the overall value being given to this class.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

My Beckett/Rotoworld magazine selection from back in early May as the best Dynasty-league deep sleeper:

Texans coach Gary Kubiak praised undrafted rookie Arian Foster following Monday's training camp practice.

Kubiak gave Foster "an excellent chance to help this team." "It's obvious – he's impressive," Kubiak added. "He's kind of what you look for. He's a downhill runner. He's got a big body." Foster is in the mix for goal-line work.

http://www.houstontexans.com/news/Story.asp?STORY_ID=5414

Coach Gary Kubiak expressed frustration with rookie RB Arian Foster's recent hamstring injury."Yeah, he was a very impressive young man, and now he's missed some very valuable time," said Kubiak. "Arian has got to get in the training room and get his butt out here. He's a good football player, but he's got to stay out here." Chris Brown remains the favorite for backup duties

Yeah, I posted that one on Rotoworld this afternoon. Like the "impressive young man" and "good football player" and the fact that Kubiak thinks enough of him to be pissed that he's not available for reps.

Don't like the use of the word "was" in the first sentence.

If he can get back on the field in the next couple of days, it won't be too much of a setback.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

You're right, no player who played well in college ever busted, so Harvin is certainly a game changer. No risk there.

Hey, come here. Come closer, let me tell you something:They're all risks!

Look, I'm trying to get people to see what I'm seeing with Harvin. If you fail to see it, that's fine. But the idea that we shouldn't have the courage of our convictions on players before they prove themselves is ludicrous. Worse, it's a detriment to your ability to build the best Dynasty roster you can. I have no interest in letting another owner in my league grab Harvin while I'm sitting around waiting for him to prove in Week 1 what I already know to be true.

 

[PlasmaDogPlasma]

I'm interested in everyone's thoughts on the 2nd/3rd tier of rookie RBs--With the lack of depth after Moreno/Wells/Brown/McCoy/Greene, I'm curious about the hype around rookie RBs who went undrafted or were picked quite late. I'm mainly thinking of five guys, all in decent situations and receiving good training camp comments:R. JenningsA. FosterJ. DavisG. JohnsonB. ScottI'm wary that it may just be hype. I think too many people have short memories of last year, and think there will be 8-10 RBs who have good value. Do we really think any of these have what it takes to be successful, or are they simply the best available to drum up for RB sleepers in a weak class? In a couple dynasty leagues with late rookie drafts, I'm getting out of the 2nd and 3rd rounds and letting other guys take them... I say puff stories in a year where we frankly wish there were better RB options.I'm less interested in why you think one of these specific guys will make it, more the overall value being given to this class.

This is a weak draft at all of the offensive skill positions.

 

[FUBAR]

You're right, no player who played well in college ever busted, so Harvin is certainly a game changer. No risk there.

Hey, come here. Come closer, let me tell you something:They're all risks!

Look, I'm trying to get people to see what I'm seeing with Harvin. If you fail to see it, that's fine. But the idea that we shouldn't have the courage of our convictions on players before they prove themselves is ludicrous. Worse, it's a detriment to your ability to build the best Dynasty roster you can. I have no interest in letting another owner in my league grab Harvin while I'm sitting around waiting for him to prove in Week 1 what I already know to be true.

thanks, I'm new at this. I have no issue whatsoever with taking a player I like who hasn't proven himself, but I'm not taking him over another player of equal FF talent who has shown he belongs in the league.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

I have no issue whatsoever with taking a player I like who hasn't proven himself, but I'm not taking him over another player of equal FF talent who has shown he belongs in the league.

How do you know if the two players have "equal FF talent"? Harvin hasn't proven any FF talent yet.

 

[FUBAR]

I have no issue whatsoever with taking a player I like who hasn't proven himself, but I'm not taking him over another player of equal FF talent who has shown he belongs in the league.

How do you know if the two players have "equal FF talent"? Harvin hasn't proven any FF talent yet.

but I'll bite anyway. What do you expect from Harvin? I expect him to perform about the same as Royal will. But I feel far less confident in Harvin.

I do expect Harvin to present the Vikings with a surprise element that Royal doesn't quite have, but it's not going to consistently show up in the stats.

 

[renesauz]

I'm confused here....what good is making the playoffs on the back of guys like Calvin Johnson, only to have to sit him throughout the entire playoffs? Mediocre teams are suddenly contenders, and contenders are suddenly chump also-rans, unless they trade away those studs for anybody still likely to play deep into the playoffs? While I'm all about additional depth and strategy in any league...I just don't see the attraction for this. After all, there are tons of playoff contest leagues to help fill our fantasy addiction.

I do understand the desire to make something like this work...I just can't see the positives coming close to outweighing the negatives. But hey....if it works for y'all...run with it and enjoy!

Have you ever tried it? I've played in plenty of leagues that use regular season playoffs and a couple that use NFL playoffs. The NFL playoff leagues are far superior in every way ... enough so that I'll never go back to a Dynasty league that uses regular season playoffs. Re: the Calvin comment. I've had guys like S-Jax & Fitz as my nucleus for the past four years, and I never got to use them in the playoffs (until finally with Fitz last year). In that time I've won the league twice, finished second once and finished fourth once. You don't have to sell off young studs to win the title. While I didn't get to use Fitz & S-Jax in the playoffs, they still helped me to get to the playoffs and enjoy some homefield advantage. It's up to me to construct a team around them that will go deep in the playoffs.

I'd enjoy a FBG Dynasty league with guys from this thread, but like I said, I don't really have any interest unless it's with an NFL playoff format. If the guys who are signing up have serious reservations about the format, I'd advise against joining (it's not too late to back out now). This only works with a long-term commitment, and coming in with serious doubts is a bad idea. If we can get 12 who are excited and committed for a new challenge, cool. If not, no big deal.

How do you work that in?

 

[Blackjacks]

Poor Cornelius Ingram tore the same ACL exactly a year after he originally tore it.It's a shame. He was having an excellent camp.

How much does this bump up Celek's value?I think he is ready for a big year.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

I have no issue whatsoever with taking a player I like who hasn't proven himself, but I'm not taking him over another player of equal FF talent who has shown he belongs in the league.

How do you know if the two players have "equal FF talent"? Harvin hasn't proven any FF talent yet.

Basically, F&L's point is that if you wait until a rookie is a stud, you will pay an arm and a leg for him. Now, if you are sky high on a Harvin (or any other rookie), then NOW is the time to get him. Chris Johnson is an example of this, so is Calvin Johnson, who some people thought might be a bust after his rookie year. I also will add that nobody will always be right, but if you don't take some chances, it's a lot harder to win. I am one who is not afraid to be wrong on a player because I already know I will be wrong sometimes. But if I really like a rookie, I'm going to get him now while they are affordable.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

I'm confused here....what good is making the playoffs on the back of guys like Calvin Johnson, only to have to sit him throughout the entire playoffs? Mediocre teams are suddenly contenders, and contenders are suddenly chump also-rans, unless they trade away those studs for anybody still likely to play deep into the playoffs? While I'm all about additional depth and strategy in any league...I just don't see the attraction for this. After all, there are tons of playoff contest leagues to help fill our fantasy addiction.

I do understand the desire to make something like this work...I just can't see the positives coming close to outweighing the negatives. But hey....if it works for y'all...run with it and enjoy!

Have you ever tried it? I've played in plenty of leagues that use regular season playoffs and a couple that use NFL playoffs. The NFL playoff leagues are far superior in every way ... enough so that I'll never go back to a Dynasty league that uses regular season playoffs. Re: the Calvin comment. I've had guys like S-Jax & Fitz as my nucleus for the past four years, and I never got to use them in the playoffs (until finally with Fitz last year). In that time I've won the league twice, finished second once and finished fourth once. You don't have to sell off young studs to win the title. While I didn't get to use Fitz & S-Jax in the playoffs, they still helped me to get to the playoffs and enjoy some homefield advantage. It's up to me to construct a team around them that will go deep in the playoffs.

I'd enjoy a FBG Dynasty league with guys from this thread, but like I said, I don't really have any interest unless it's with an NFL playoff format. If the guys who are signing up have serious reservations about the format, I'd advise against joining (it's not too late to back out now). This only works with a long-term commitment, and coming in with serious doubts is a bad idea. If we can get 12 who are excited and committed for a new challenge, cool. If not, no big deal.

How do you work that in?

Depending on your scoring, something like this:Regular season 1st place = +50 points entering the playoffs, second place = +40 pts, third place = +30 pts, fourth place = +20 pts, fifth place = +10 pts, sixth place = 0 pts.

So the first place team from the regular season still has a pretty significant edge on the fifth and sixth place teams.

 

[H8fulHuck]

If someone drafted Crabtree this year in a FF Dynasty league, does he go back in the rookie pool next year if he doesn't sign & opts to go back to the NFL draft again next year?

 

[Fear & Loathing]

I have no issue whatsoever with taking a player I like who hasn't proven himself, but I'm not taking him over another player of equal FF talent who has shown he belongs in the league.

How do you know if the two players have "equal FF talent"? Harvin hasn't proven any FF talent yet.

Basically, F&L's point is that if you wait until a rookie is a stud, you will pay an arm and a leg for him. Now, if you are sky high on a Harvin (or any other rookie), then NOW is the time to get him. Chris Johnson is an example of this, so is Calvin Johnson, who some people thought might be a bust after his rookie year. I also will add that nobody will always be right, but if you don't take some chances, it's a lot harder to win. I am one who is not afraid to be wrong on a player because I already know I will be wrong sometimes. But if I really like a rookie, I'm going to get him now while they are affordable.

If you're lucky. Most of the time, if you wait until a rookie is a stud he then becomes untouchable in trade talks.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

If someone drafted Crabtree this year in a FF Dynasty league, does he go back in the rookie pool next year if he doesn't sign & opts to go back to the NFL draft again next year?

No, I think if you draft him you're stuck with him for a year.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Poor Cornelius Ingram tore the same ACL exactly a year after he originally tore it.It's a shame. He was having an excellent camp.

How much does this bump up Celek's value?I think he is ready for a big year.

Not much in my eyes. I already had Celek high in the rankings, expecting a big year. I'm not going to move him much higher.

 

[FUBAR]

I have no issue whatsoever with taking a player I like who hasn't proven himself, but I'm not taking him over another player of equal FF talent who has shown he belongs in the league.

How do you know if the two players have "equal FF talent"? Harvin hasn't proven any FF talent yet.

Basically, F&L's point is that if you wait until a rookie is a stud, you will pay an arm and a leg for him. Now, if you are sky high on a Harvin (or any other rookie), then NOW is the time to get him. Chris Johnson is an example of this, so is Calvin Johnson, who some people thought might be a bust after his rookie year. I also will add that nobody will always be right, but if you don't take some chances, it's a lot harder to win. I am one who is not afraid to be wrong on a player because I already know I will be wrong sometimes. But if I really like a rookie, I'm going to get him now while they are affordable.

I get his point, I just disagree on Harvin having the same type of talent as Calvin, CJ3, Peterson, etc. If he's more talented than Royal, it isn't by much. His comment was Purple Haze IS a game changer, I'm just saying the "is" part is a bit early.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

I have no issue whatsoever with taking a player I like who hasn't proven himself, but I'm not taking him over another player of equal FF talent who has shown he belongs in the league.

How do you know if the two players have "equal FF talent"? Harvin hasn't proven any FF talent yet.

but I'll bite anyway. What do you expect from Harvin? I expect him to perform about the same as Royal will. But I feel far less confident in Harvin.

I do expect Harvin to present the Vikings with a surprise element that Royal doesn't quite have, but it's not going to consistently show up in the stats.

From the post you originally quoted, I expect:"One of the major advantages Harvin will have over EzE is touchdowns, and that's a pretty important advantage."

Like I said earlier, I think Royal is a rock-solid WR2 long-term. I think Harvin is a possible fantasy monster long-term, and that species is much harder to acquire. I will always roll the dice on a player if I think he has a chance to give me a weekly advantage over the other 11 guys in my league.

 

[Burning Sensation]

I'm interested in everyone's thoughts on the 2nd/3rd tier of rookie RBs--With the lack of depth after Moreno/Wells/Brown/McCoy/Greene, I'm curious about the hype around rookie RBs who went undrafted or were picked quite late. I'm mainly thinking of five guys, all in decent situations and receiving good training camp comments:R. JenningsA. FosterJ. DavisG. JohnsonB. ScottI'm wary that it may just be hype. I think too many people have short memories of last year, and think there will be 8-10 RBs who have good value. Do we really think any of these have what it takes to be successful, or are they simply the best available to drum up for RB sleepers in a weak class? In a couple dynasty leagues with late rookie drafts, I'm getting out of the 2nd and 3rd rounds and letting other guys take them... I say puff stories in a year where we frankly wish there were better RB options.I'm less interested in why you think one of these specific guys will make it, more the overall value being given to this class.

This is a weak draft at all of the offensive skill positions.

I agree that this was one of the weakest classes i have been involved with since doing dynasty leagues. However, the weak ones usually turn out better than you think and the strong ones weaker than you think. Although i thought last years class was the best i have ever seen, and it actually has exceeded my expectations to this point. I do think this years class will be better than we think, the problem is which players will be responsible for that. As far as RB's, i didnt have any hope for the backs after the top 5, and pretty much crossed the rest off my list. Since then though, i have started to really like two of them, James Davis and Bernard Scott. Both were considered at one point during their college careers to have 1rst or 2nd round talent.I do like the WR's more than the '08 class but thats pretty easy since last years class didnt have a 1rst round pick. I could easily see 4 or 5 guys from this year with top 15-20 fantasy potential. I know the Herd mentality says DHB is a bust before he ever plays a down, but the guy certainly has the size/speed combo to be an elite WR, and worth the risk of a late first round pick. Maclin is my favorite WR to come out of a draft since CJ, although he obviously is no Calvin Johnson.Stafford is the only QB i like this year, but i bet this draft pumps out more than a couple top 12-15 dynasty TE's over the next few years. There also seems to be a good amount of IDP talent, for those who play in IDP leagues.As far as hype, or fluff peices, alot of people will say it doesnt matter at all, or very little. I dont agree, i just think you have to be good at reading between the lines of whats fluff and whats legit. A players best shot of getting on the field as a rookie is in training camp/preseason. If you cant impress your own coaches, dont expect to get an opportunity to show what you can do on the field. I have made alot of decisons in drafts based on reports from team practices or preseason play, and has worked out for me more times than not.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

I get his point, I just disagree on Harvin having the same type of talent as Calvin, CJ3, Peterson, etc. If he's more talented than Royal, it isn't by much. His comment was Purple Haze IS a game changer, I'm just saying the "is" part is a bit early.

And it was early on Adrian Peterson, Calvin Johnson, and Chris Johnson too ... but you didn't have a problem with those predictions?This whole thing comes down to you not believing in Harvin's difference-making talent. We disagree on his talent, which is fine. But why then use the red herring "he hasn't proven anything" argument?

 

[FUBAR]

I have no issue whatsoever with taking a player I like who hasn't proven himself, but I'm not taking him over another player of equal FF talent who has shown he belongs in the league.

How do you know if the two players have "equal FF talent"? Harvin hasn't proven any FF talent yet.

but I'll bite anyway. What do you expect from Harvin? I expect him to perform about the same as Royal will. But I feel far less confident in Harvin.

I do expect Harvin to present the Vikings with a surprise element that Royal doesn't quite have, but it's not going to consistently show up in the stats.

From the post you originally quoted, I expect:"One of the major advantages Harvin will have over EzE is touchdowns, and that's a pretty important advantage."

Like I said earlier, I think Royal is a rock-solid WR2 long-term. I think Harvin is a possible fantasy monster long-term, and that species is much harder to acquire. I will always roll the dice on a player if I think he has a chance to give me a weekly advantage over the other 11 guys in my league.

We're pretty close on how we want to set our teams up, the disagreement here is simply you see more in Harvin than I do. I see more risk in him than you seem to. I don't think there's a legitimate chance that Harvin is a top 3 WR in FF. His ceiling is around where Javon Walker was before injury. Pretty good, but Royal's not far from that himself.

 

[FUBAR]

I get his point, I just disagree on Harvin having the same type of talent as Calvin, CJ3, Peterson, etc. If he's more talented than Royal, it isn't by much. His comment was Purple Haze IS a game changer, I'm just saying the "is" part is a bit early.

And it was early on Adrian Peterson, Calvin Johnson, and Chris Johnson too ... but you didn't have a problem with those predictions?This whole thing comes down to you not believing in Harvin's difference-making talent. We disagree on his talent, which is fine. But why then use the red herring "he hasn't proven anything" argument?

It wasn't an argument, I was simply commenting on your calling him a game changer already. It's like if I called Aaron Rodgers a Hall of Famer.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

It wasn't an argument, I was simply commenting on your calling him a game changer already. It's like if I called Aaron Rodgers a Hall of Famer.

Seriously?On that note, it's time to hit the bar. I need a few . Channeling CraigKilborn in Old School: "good talk."You guys have a good one, I'm outta here for about 7 hours.

 

[Toads]

If someone drafted Crabtree this year in a FF Dynasty league, does he go back in the rookie pool next year if he doesn't sign & opts to go back to the NFL draft again next year?

That's an interesting question.I'd think that, since he's:

1) on your roster, and

2) that you can only have one of any player on a roster....

.....that he's yours till "Death Do Us Part."

 

[shader]

Update on the dynasty league..

Looks like this is the current group of teams that have expressed strong interest:

1)Fear & Loathing

2)Benm3218

3)Shader

4)Neo

5)Fubar

6)gorf

7)BradtheAg

8)kremenull

9)ChuckLiddell

10)Toads

I'm not going to post another request for teams on this particular thread..I just wanted to let you guys see the competition and let everyone be aware that there are 2 available spots.

 

[benm3218]

Vikings | Harvin keeps making highlight plays Sat Aug 8, 07:29 PM

Judd Zulgad, of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune, reports that Vikings first-round pick WR Percy Harvin "just keeps making highlight plays". Zulgad writes that "the latest came in a one-on-one with cornerback Marcus McCauley. Harvin put a move on McCauley and caught a 40-yard touchdown pass from Sage Rosenfels. Later, in 7-on-7, Harvin got behind rookie cornerback Asher Allen and hauled in a 30-yard pass from Rosenfels."

Our view: Harvin is looking like a very nice sleeper to take around the 11th/12th round in PPR and non-PPR leagues alike just in case the league isn't ready for the speedster from Florida.

 

[renesauz]

Poor Cornelius Ingram tore the same ACL exactly a year after he originally tore it.It's a shame. He was having an excellent camp.

How much does this bump up Celek's value?I think he is ready for a big year.

Not much in my eyes. I already had Celek high in the rankings, expecting a big year. I'm not going to move him much higher.

I agree. The only real differance is now you can draft him with confidance behind any TE1, or as your own cheap TE1. Before, I would have hesitated to draft him behind injury prone or high risk guys.

 

[SSOG]

We're pretty close on how we want to set our teams up, the disagreement here is simply you see more in Harvin than I do. I see more risk in him than you seem to. I don't think there's a legitimate chance that Harvin is a top 3 WR in FF. His ceiling is around where Javon Walker was before injury. Pretty good, but Royal's not far from that himself.

Royal's not far from 1300 yards, 12 TDs, and 15+ yards per reception? EDDIE Royal?

It wasn't an argument, I was simply commenting on your calling him a game changer already. It's like if I called Aaron Rodgers a Hall of Famer.

Actually, it'd be more like calling Kyle Boller strong-armed or Ted Ginn a blazer. It's a description of his skillset.

 

[theholdout123]

Why do you have Kevin Smith ranked so low? i mean hes a top 18 running back in most rankings for this year and hes only a second year guy. He put up good stats last year for a rookie on a 0-16 team. The lions have no where to go but up and they have some young talent on that offense to grow as he should only get better so i see no reason why he wont keep getting better. Hes also a every down back with little competition. I just don't get why hes ranked behind many of the backs in tier 3 and so far behind a unproven rookie with competition for the starting job in Moreno. I'm just curious why you feel the way you do about him.

 

[H8fulHuck]

If someone drafted Crabtree this year in a FF Dynasty league, does he go back in the rookie pool next year if he doesn't sign & opts to go back to the NFL draft again next year?

That's an interesting question.I'd think that, since he's:

1) on your roster, and

2) that you can only have one of any player on a roster....

.....that he's yours till "Death Do Us Part."

I figured he'd just burn a roster spot for the season. Can't put him on IR and just have to wait it out.

 

[thriftyrocker]

R. JenningsA. FosterJ. DavisG. JohnsonB. Scott

I think all these guys except Foster are better than Tim Hightower. Tim Hightower was a late 1st/early 2nd pick in end of summer rookie drafts last year. At one point last year Hightower could have nabbed you a low #2 WR, at the very least, and he retains some value this year with a decent camp and Wells' continued injury concerns. I actually feel more confident picking a random guy from that group than I do with the WR tier after Kenny Britt - Robiskie, Tate, Thomas, Dillard, Iglesias, Collie, Barden, Turner, Massoquoi - all seem either low ceiling or looong term projects.

 

[gheemony]

So awesome to have SSOG back in the Shark Pool. Where have you been, SSOG? Have you tried out Twitter? I think you'd love the news and analysis you can get. You get a great following.

SSOG/F&L: The two of you are part of a small (but growing) group of fantasy footballers that utilize Football Outsiders. I love their insight, analysis and stats. It's so novel that I see folks coming away with different conclusions based on the same data. Can you guys share some of your observations from FOA 2009 or other Football Outsiders research that really stand out and that dynasty leaguers can take advantage of?

 

[SSOG]

So awesome to have SSOG back in the Shark Pool. Where have you been, SSOG? Have you tried out Twitter? I think you'd love the news and analysis you can get. You get a great following.SSOG/F&L: The two of you are part of a small (but growing) group of fantasy footballers that utilize Football Outsiders. I love their insight, analysis and stats. It's so novel that I see folks coming away with different conclusions based on the same data. Can you guys share some of your observations from FOA 2009 or other Football Outsiders research that really stand out and that dynasty leaguers can take advantage of?

FO's a mixed bag. I love their team stats and their unit stats, but I'm not sold on their player stats. Well, actually, I think the RB stats and QB stats are fantastic measures that correlate very strongly to real-world NFL value. The WR stats, on the other hand... it's not their fault, there's just too much noise to separate out statistically. Regardless of the reasons why, I find that WR stats rarely correlate with reality to any but the weakest degree.Also, it might surprise you, but I've never used their KUBIAK projections. I didn't even buy FOA this year. And I didn't buy the Prospectus last year, either. If I did buy either, it'd be for their game-charting numbers and team projections. I think their player projections are... seriously flawed. Which, again, is not their fault- there's just too much noise, too many variables. Their player projections comb through heaps of statistical data with a fine-toothed comb, and is great for discovering nuggets like "QB A has an unsustainably low INT% given his mediocre comp%" or "WR B had twice as many drops in the RZ as elsewhere, which is likely just a statistical fluke", but projections can't possibly understand something like "the QB his team added has complete tunnel vision" or "the team is blowing up its scheme and changing its offensive focus". Just because the QB and RB numbers correlate very strongly with NFL ability doesn't mean they correlate with fantasy ability, because NFL ability and fantasy ability are two entirely different things. I know a couple of years back I had quite the reputation as a stat geek who never watched the games, but the reality is that I've always thought of stats as nothing more than a tool to help inform the decision-making process, not some sort of be-all, end-all comment on a player's abilities. Stats are a great way to confirm something your eyes are telling you, or a great way to draw your attention to a certain player so you can watch him and form an opinion on him. I think the biggest use I get out of Football Outsiders, from a fantasy perspective, comes during the middle of the season. Paying attention to trends in DVOA can often put a free agent on my radar weeks before some other team would swoop in and pick him up.Edit: Oh, and no, I've never gotten onto Twitter, even to see what it was all about. I've likewise never been to Facebook, and the only reason I've ever been on myspace is because a good friend of mine has a band. It's not a generational thing- I am firmly ensconced in their target generation- it's just that I don't think any thought I have is interesting enough to warrant up-to-the-minute updates, and I don't think anyone else's thoughts are interesting enough that I'd care about their play-by-plays, either. Not that I have a problem with anyone who disagrees, as I can easily see the appeal. Call me old school, it's just not my thing.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

So awesome to have SSOG back in the Shark Pool. Where have you been, SSOG? Have you tried out Twitter? I think you'd love the news and analysis you can get. You get a great following.

SSOG/F&L: The two of you are part of a small (but growing) group of fantasy footballers that utilize Football Outsiders. I love their insight, analysis and stats. It's so novel that I see folks coming away with different conclusions based on the same data. Can you guys share some of your observations from FOA 2009 or other Football Outsiders research that really stand out and that dynasty leaguers can take advantage of?

FO's a mixed bag. I love their team stats and their unit stats, but I'm not sold on their player stats. Well, actually, I think the RB stats and QB stats are fantastic measures that correlate very strongly to real-world NFL value. The WR stats, on the other hand... it's not their fault, there's just too much noise to separate out statistically. Regardless of the reasons why, I find that WR stats rarely correlate with reality to any but the weakest degree.Also, it might surprise you, but I've never used their KUBIAK projections. I didn't even buy FOA this year. And I didn't buy the Prospectus last year, either. If I did buy either, it'd be for their game-charting numbers and team projections. I think their player projections are... seriously flawed. Which, again, is not their fault- there's just too much noise, too many variables. Their player projections comb through heaps of statistical data with a fine-toothed comb, and is great for discovering nuggets like "QB A has an unsustainably low INT% given his mediocre comp%" or "WR B had twice as many drops in the RZ as elsewhere, which is likely just a statistical fluke", but projections can't possibly understand something like "the QB his team added has complete tunnel vision" or "the team is blowing up its scheme and changing its offensive focus". Just because the QB and RB numbers correlate very strongly with NFL ability doesn't mean they correlate with fantasy ability, because NFL ability and fantasy ability are two entirely different things.

I know a couple of years back I had quite the reputation as a stat geek who never watched the games, but the reality is that I've always thought of stats as nothing more than a tool to help inform the decision-making process, not some sort of be-all, end-all comment on a player's abilities. Stats are a great way to confirm something your eyes are telling you, or a great way to draw your attention to a certain player so you can watch him and form an opinion on him. I think the biggest use I get out of Football Outsiders, from a fantasy perspective, comes during the middle of the season. Paying attention to trends in DVOA can often put a free agent on my radar weeks before some other team would swoop in and pick him up.

:X Especially the bolded parts. Completely agree.

Edit: Oh, and no, I've never gotten onto Twitter, even to see what it was all about. I've likewise never been to Facebook, and the only reason I've ever been on myspace is because a good friend of mine has a band. It's not a generational thing- I am firmly ensconced in their target generation- it's just that I don't think any thought I have is interesting enough to warrant up-to-the-minute updates, and I don't think anyone else's thoughts are interesting enough that I'd care about their play-by-plays, either. Not that I have a problem with anyone who disagrees, as I can easily see the appeal. Call me old school, it's just not my thing.

Twitter can change the way fans follow news. It's helped me out immensely when I'm doing Rotoworld news shifts. Here's the introductory paragraph from a column I wrote a few days ago:

The biggest breakout star of this year's training camp? Twitter.

Rotoworld is used to relying on news and information trickling in steadily from each team's reliable beat writers. We would get the story and post practice updates later in the afternoon or the following day.

Twitter has changed all of that, creating a football community consisting of beat writers, NFL insiders, and fantasy football wonks sharing up-to-date information as the story breaks. With so many voices engaging in an ongoing "conversation," it's easy to gauge which players are gaining the most "buzz" early in camp.

Re: Facebook. I thought the exact same thing you did ... until I got on Facebook about 8 months ago. Now I realize it's a fantastic tool for keeping in touch with people who have fallen out of your life as the years slip by. It's also a great tool for keeping up with important people in your life when you just don't get to see them often enough. I try to stick with informative or entertaining links, comments, stories, etc. when I post. The one thing I can't stand is when people use it for a political forum. It's just not the place for heavy-handed political discussion IMO.