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Dynasty Rankings (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Fear & Loathing
- Start date
crnerblitz
Footballguy
Lets get this back on track.
Deon Butler. Is He too small and/or too raw to be a viable weapon for Hasselbeck? I'm not sure but I have been adding him to the end of my bench every chance I get. He is a free agent in most leagues and represents a good ROI for anyone with bench space.
Deon Butler. Is He too small and/or too raw to be a viable weapon for Hasselbeck? I'm not sure but I have been adding him to the end of my bench every chance I get. He is a free agent in most leagues and represents a good ROI for anyone with bench space.
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thriftyrocker
Footballguy
He's the exact same size as Bobby Engram, who was a decent option even at advanced age. If he can also make plays with his speed, who knows. Seattle traded up into the 3rd to get him. Saw him go 2.11 in a recent dynasty draft. Seems like he's the biggest riser this year, more so than Barden and Coffee.
this thread is fantastic, but is really being drug down by the assistant coach questions. is there any way for a moderator to possibly clean it up a bit?
anyway, i was hoping for some opinions on james davis. i really like his situation and he seems to be a bit unappreciated at this point from what i have seen in dynasty circles. does anyone have thoughts on his talent, because i believe the situation is primed for him to become a starter soon!
i will hang up and listen...
anyway, i was hoping for some opinions on james davis. i really like his situation and he seems to be a bit unappreciated at this point from what i have seen in dynasty circles. does anyone have thoughts on his talent, because i believe the situation is primed for him to become a starter soon!
i will hang up and listen...
He probably gets hundreds a day., again, Im sorryThis is why I don't post alot. It was a simple dynasty srategy question. Since F&L and I are extremely high on Chris Johnson. and I did not post the question in this dynasty strategy thread.Which part of a PM don't you understand?
This thread used to be a place for good information for dynasty league owners. Please save posts about how this thread used to be a place for good information for dynasty league owners for the appropriate forum.Joking aside, the people complaining about how posts belong in the ACF are contributing just as much to the clutter as the posts belonging in the ACF thread. If one person posts an ACF question, and four people post telling him it doesn't belong here, who's the bigger contributor? It's one thing to want to keep the thread relatively clean, but I count 8 posts within the past page and a half that are nothing but throwaways about how the thread is the new ACF (and another two-three posts that are people apologizing after getting jumped on). I agree that this isn't the place for trade advice, but at least there's some meaningful discussion arising from it.That's all I wanted to say. I'll stop being a hypocrite and criticizing people for not contributing to the thread while myself not contributing to the thread.
Not sure it's worthy of a separate thread, but is there any thoughts on whether Sage Rosenfels has any dynasty value at this point? It's unlikely that Favre will last more than a season (if that), and at least currently, Sage is next in line. Barring a trade, would this make him valuable next year, even if Favre makes it through a whole 16 games?
Tau837
Footballguy
People have been saying this for about 4 years now. Didn't he sign a 2 year contract?
Thanks SSOG. This is a dynasty discussion thread, and while F&L is the OP, I simply asked him to take a look at my dynasty question since he is a serious CJ fan.
valhallan
Footballguy
I know Finley had some red flags stemming from boneheaded behavior but he's becoming very intriguing. In the last two games of 2008 he was involved on a couple of big plays and now in the pre-season he's making additional waves. Last week in the first quarter alone, he got open over the middle for 18 and 21 yards, plus had a 16 yarder called back due to a lineman penalty. Rodgers looked very comfortable throwing his way, making good on his statement of Finley being unguardable during the offseason. Under McCarthy this offense has had 67, 68, and 56 catches from the TE position. All rumblings during the offseason have indicated Donald Lee does not have a stranglehold on the job and if Finley continues looking this good, I don't see why he couldn't grab the lion's share of work and approach Lee's 48-575-6 production in 2007, which was enough for TE #9.
I think Sage has SOME dynasty value. I think he has decent upside, and once you get down to your QB3 all you're really looking for is upside. Is he a top 20 dynasty QB? Not really. Is he a top 40 dynasty QB? Absolutely, imo.
It's not a question of how long he's signed for, it's a question of whether the Vikings will still want him after this season.
Tau837
Footballguy
Favre would have to retire or play worse than last season to lose the starting job IMO. And I don't expect the latter to happen. So IMO the only way another QB has value in Minnesota next year is if he retires.As for Sage having upside, based on what? He's 31 and so will presumably be 32 or 33 before he gets a chance to be a full time starter, if ever. In his two seasons with substantial playing time (2007 & 2008), he has 21 TD passes and 22 interceptions and a QB rating near his career rating of 81.2. In a dynasty league if I'm looking for upside in a QB, I'm looking elsewhere.I think Sage has SOME dynasty value. I think he has decent upside, and once you get down to your QB3 all you're really looking for is upside. Is he a top 20 dynasty QB? Not really. Is he a top 40 dynasty QB? Absolutely, imo.It's not a question of how long he's signed for, it's a question of whether the Vikings will still want him after this season.
*shrug* 15 TDs in 9 games (only 5 starts) in '07, 5.3% career TD% (Lord Favre's = 5.0%). The INT% is ridiculously high, but we're talking about upside here, and Sage tosses strikes like nobody's business. He also seems to be the current "best backup in the league" du jour, so I'd imagine he gets a starting job to prove his worth before he goes quietly into the night.
stevegamer
Footballguy
I think Rosenfels is the new Frank Reich. he's going to basically be a backup or competition guy. This was his shot, and he just got beaten out by someone, due them having been better over their career, and getting off a plane.Rosenfels might get a boost since he's a gambler type, and if he hangs around to follow Favre, there will be a similarity in style. However, he's pretty old to have a ton of value - simply due the low likelihood of value these next 2 years, and then he's quite possibly an old career backup QB without a clear starting job.
stevegamer
Footballguy
I think Rosenfels is the new Frank Reich. he's going to basically be a backup or competition guy. This was his sho, and he just got beaten out by someone, due them having been better over their career, and getting off a plane.Rosenfels might get a boost since he's a gambler type, and if he hangs around to follow Favre, there will be a similarity in style. However, he's pretty old to have a ton of value - simply due the low likelihood of value these next 2 years, and then he's quite possibly an old career backup QB without a clear starting job.
stevegamer
Footballguy
I think Rosenfels is the new Frank Reich. he's going to basically be a backup or competition guy. This was his shot, and he just got beaten out by someone, due them having been better over their career, and getting off a plane.
Rosenfels might get a boost since he's a gambler type, and if he hangs around to follow Favre, there will be a similarity in style. However, he's pretty old to have a ton of value - simply due the low likelihood of value these next 2 years, and then he's quite possibly an old career backup QB without a clear starting job.
Rosenfels might get a boost since he's a gambler type, and if he hangs around to follow Favre, there will be a similarity in style. However, he's pretty old to have a ton of value - simply due the low likelihood of value these next 2 years, and then he's quite possibly an old career backup QB without a clear starting job.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Point taken...oops did it again.I don't read all the posts in this thread, it does seem like every time I visit somebody is asking a ACF question. Did not realize I was one of many clogging the airways. I am done now.
corpcow
Footballguy
QB-wise, Russell is a guy I've been targeting/stashing. He can be had for NOTHING, but let's not forget that he still has 1st overall talent and his holdout really cost him that first year. As a first year starter last year in a run-heavy offense and precious little help at receiver, he wasn't *terrible* - and more importantly seemed to turn a corner towards the end of the year. TO me, the progression is most important.
With the addition of DHB, the emergence of Chaz Schilens (when he comes back), and McFadden as a weapon if he can stay healthy, it could help accelerate Jamarcus' progress. In terms of upside, I can't think of anyone in his tier that comes CLOSE - he's the kind of guy where, if the light comes on, he could be a top 5 fantasy QB. And, at least this year and probably next, I think his opportunity is almost assured (something many of his peers in the rankings don't have).
With the addition of DHB, the emergence of Chaz Schilens (when he comes back), and McFadden as a weapon if he can stay healthy, it could help accelerate Jamarcus' progress. In terms of upside, I can't think of anyone in his tier that comes CLOSE - he's the kind of guy where, if the light comes on, he could be a top 5 fantasy QB. And, at least this year and probably next, I think his opportunity is almost assured (something many of his peers in the rankings don't have).
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
I agree he may be worth taking a shot on based on his current "peanuts" value. I am of the belief that he will not emerge to ever become a top 15 QB. He seems almost unnatural at his position when watching him. He survived off his tremendous physical traits and talented surrounding class in college. In order to take the next step he will have to truly devote himself to the game and have sound coaching at his side. I am not seeing any signs of either of those occurring right now.
MAC_32
Footballguy
The most important thing for a QB to have is a good head, and that is something JaMarcus sorely lacks and will never have either. I think there are better uses for that roster spot than Russell.
This is the make-or-break season for Russell. Despite the belief that QBs take a while to develop, 80-90% of top-10 fantasy QBs were top-10 fantasy QBs in at least one of their first two full seasons as a starter. I agree that Russell is a very smart gamble, because a lot of people are closing the book on him a year too early. If Russell isn't a top-10 fantasy QB this year, or if he doesn't give you a very, very compelling reason to keep him, then cut bait, no questions asked.Historical trends aside, I was never a Russell fan coming out of college. His tools are awesome, but he was just so mediocre as a college QB. Going into his Junior year he almost lost his starting job to an unproven backup (who, as it turns out, was himself no great shakes as a college QB). Coming out of his Junior year, he was the #1 overall draft pick. Excuse me?
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Updated RB rankings are posted on the blog. I know a few have been waiting on updates for drafts.
A lot of movement over the past month.
A lot of movement over the past month.
Burning Sensation
Footballguy
11. Steve Slaton
Good to see you have Slaton over guys like Pierre Thomas, Marion, Barber and Ryan Grant etc.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Less about Slaton and more about the other guys falling off a bit. I'm not happy about Slaton in the 11 spot. Oh, and I don't think Grant's been above him at all this offseason.11. Steve SlatonGood to see you have Slaton over guys like Pierre Thomas, Marion, Barber and Ryan Grant etc.
Burning Sensation
Footballguy
I didnt imagine you would be thrilled with ranking him there, nobody likes admitting they were wrong.Less about Slaton and more about the other guys falling off a bit. I'm not happy about Slaton in the 11 spot. Oh, and I don't think Grant's been above him at all this offseason.11. Steve Slaton
Youre probably right about Grant, i might be remembering you having Grant over him during last season.
My initial knee-jerk impressions, without any mental filter or reflection (basically, just the first thing that comes to my mind)...1) It's really weird to look at how old RBs really are, sometimes. For instance, how many people out there would have believed that SJax and Frank Gore were both younger than DeAngelo Williams? Or that MJD was just 5-6 months older than Chris Johnson?2) Michael Turner... I'm not too high on the guy. He's a great RB, but he's not an elite talent, he's not a prospect with a ton of upside. I seriously doubt it'd be a popular opinion, but I'd drop him out of the top 10.3) Knowshon. You know how I feel, it doesn't need to be said again.4) Ronnie Brown. Same age as Turner, more talented. I'd have him higher.5) Pierre. I like this ranking a lot better than his old one. I'd feel very uncomfortable with an undrafted piece of an RBBC with essentially half a season's worth of success as a core piece of my team.6) Marshawn. I'm coming around to him. He's younger than Adrian Peterson, younger than MJD, younger than Chris Johnson, younger than Matt Forte, younger than Steve Slaton... hell, he's even younger than Shonn Greene. He's also averaged 100 yards per game for his career. I don't think he's a special talent, but I could see him getting a lot better in a hurry if Buffalo ever put an offensive line in front of him- maybe consistently hitting the 4.5 yard per carry range. I'm still not sold on Fred Jackson as someone who brings Marshawn's value down (apparently you don't, either, since you have Jackson at #52). I believe I already posted in this thread that, historically, Jackson is a lot like LenDale in that he gets his after Lynch gets his first. I'm convinced that, at the very least, Marshawn has the talent of a starting RB in the NFL, and at 23 years old, I'd have Marshawn higher just because he's going to have a long time to figure things out.7) Jon Stewart. Tough guy to rank. The talent is undeniable, but so is the fact that there are serious questions as to whether he'll get to show it off. I don't know if I disagree with this ranking or not. I could easily see ranking him higher, but I could just as easily see ranking him lower.8) It's far too early to be selling Clinton Portis down the river like this. If you pro-rate 2006, then only once in his career has he finished a season outside of the top 10... and that year, he finished 11th. Yeah, he faded down the stretch hard last year, but I'd need to say more before I'd call that a meaningful indicator. Once upon a time, LaDanian Tomlinson was perceived as an RB who faded down the stretch, too.9) Never thought I'd say it, but I think Bush is too low. I know the only reason you have him that low is injury concerns. I haven't followed him as closely as some, but I'm not as concerned about his long-term health as you seem to be.I don't have many thoughts beyond that. Once you get past tier 5 everything's all a sort of mash, anyway.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Always read from the bottom up so wondering if these guys are missing on purpose
Aaron Brown - showed some speed week 1, will make the roster, possibly limited to COP/3rd down but has to be better than Mo Morris
Isaac Redman - great fit for Stillers run attack, possible goalline back early and small window of opportunity if Mendenhall fails
Tyrell Sutton - yet another Packers sleeper for those waiting for Grant to fail
Justin Forsett - loses some sleeper value with the Edge signing, but good receiver out of the backfield
Aaron Brown - showed some speed week 1, will make the roster, possibly limited to COP/3rd down but has to be better than Mo Morris
Isaac Redman - great fit for Stillers run attack, possible goalline back early and small window of opportunity if Mendenhall fails
Tyrell Sutton - yet another Packers sleeper for those waiting for Grant to fail
Justin Forsett - loses some sleeper value with the Edge signing, but good receiver out of the backfield
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
No, not missing on purpose. I put about 4-5 hours worth time into the RB rankings, and by the time I got to the bottom I didn't really have the energy to go dumpster diving through depth charts. I don't think any of those four are worth rostering on even 25-man rosters, but there's no reason not to include them. I'll add them later this weekend. Thanks for the heads up.
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For what it's worth (and in my opinion, it's not worth much), you're also missing Mike Bell.No, not missing on purpose. I put about 4-5 hours worth time into the RB rankings, and by the time I got to the bottom I didn't really have the energy to go dumpster diving through depth charts. I don't think any of those four are worth rostering on even a 25-man rosters, but there's no reason not to include them. I add them later this weekend. Thanks for the heads up.
I really don't want to overrate the guy and I know he has an obscenely long injury history, but I think Caddy is too low. Its very possible that he will be the starter on a run first team that has a far better supporting cast then any he's played with before, especially on the o-line. At the very least, I think he's ahead of Graham.
I'm not saying Caddy is going to ever get back to his rookie form, or even be a guy you feel comfortable starting, but I think he has more upside than anyone in his tier, with the possible exception of Chester Taylor. I just think his worth is a lot closer to a guy like Cedric Benson than it is to a guy like Danny Ware. Maybe around McGahee is a happy medium?
I'm trying not to overreact to one preseason game, but everyone in Tampa(beat writers and coaching staff) has been talking about how excited they are to have Caddy back.
I'm not saying Caddy is going to ever get back to his rookie form, or even be a guy you feel comfortable starting, but I think he has more upside than anyone in his tier, with the possible exception of Chester Taylor. I just think his worth is a lot closer to a guy like Cedric Benson than it is to a guy like Danny Ware. Maybe around McGahee is a happy medium?
I'm trying not to overreact to one preseason game, but everyone in Tampa(beat writers and coaching staff) has been talking about how excited they are to have Caddy back.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Yeah, you're overrating him. First, he's a horrible bet to stay healthy. Second, while he has more spring in his step than he did during last year's abbreviated stint, he's still not back to where he was pre-injury. For a refresher, he was hardly a fantasy asset before the first knee injury. After the first month of his rookie season, he was consistently one of the most disappointing fantasy backs out there. Third, he's sharing carries with two other backs, both of whom have much stronger recent track records. Cedric Benson, for all the doubts I've always had about him, is in line for a huge workload. I still think Caddy is going to be the "1" in the Bucs' 2-2-1 rotation. I don't see the upside you're seeing.
BeTheMatch
Footballguy
I gave up Anquan Boldin for Caddy after Week 3 of Caddy's rookie year. Oops. I'll never touch him again!
Horses Mouth
Footballguy
F&L, just a quick thanks for the updates. I'm sitting in a keep 3 with ADP, MJD, and CJ as my three keepers (although trying to trade Rivers and CJ for Brees - huge QB points league).
VA Sundevil
Footballguy
Thanks for the update on the rankings F&L. Estimate on updates for the other positions, most notably WR?
Couch Potato
Footballguy
Great job as always Chris. You are a beacon of light always shining bright even in the darkest night (yeah, I stole that from somewhere). A couple other guys who IMO will be involved and should be listed...Mike Bell, Patrick Cobbs.ETA: I'm a much bigger fan of Ryan Grant's prospects and rank him a lot higher than you or others doing dynasty rankings. Last year's holdout then hammy problem that lingered most of the year, plus a fluky low 4-TD total on a seriously good offense, held his totals down and misrepresented what to expect in the future. His 2nd half run in 2007, I think, is a better barometer of his real value and I am pleased he's not being rated very highly by most. It makes getting him so much easier. IMO he'll finish top-15 this year and at 26 age is not an issue.No, not missing on purpose. I put about 4-5 hours worth time into the RB rankings, and by the time I got to the bottom I didn't really have the energy to go dumpster diving through depth charts. I don't think any of those four are worth rostering on even 25-man rosters, but there's no reason not to include them. I'll add them later this weekend. Thanks for the heads up.
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jdoggydogg
Footballguy
To those complaining about roster questions and assistant coach questions:
If someone posts a question like this, it has value. Even if the question doesn't belong here, the answers will almost always have value. Because this thread is frequented by members with good dynasty insights, any time they answer a question like this, it has value. If a poster wants to know if Beanie Wells is worth picking #3 in a startup rookie dynasty draft, the subsequent answers have merit and therefore belong in this thread.
If someone posts a question like this, it has value. Even if the question doesn't belong here, the answers will almost always have value. Because this thread is frequented by members with good dynasty insights, any time they answer a question like this, it has value. If a poster wants to know if Beanie Wells is worth picking #3 in a startup rookie dynasty draft, the subsequent answers have merit and therefore belong in this thread.
kremenull
Footballguy
Grant will be very fortunate to not get replaced as starting RB for the Packers through next year's draft. When you are on a very good team with championship aspirations, which I believe that the Packers are and their organization and city have high goals, and you are not a special player at a marquee position, you are a candidate for upgrade. And I don't see Grant as a long-term high-end RB, not at all. Enjoy the Top 15-20 season, there is way too much talent on the horizon (already in the league, entering the league, and entering next year) to expect him to hold onto the Top 15 for any extended period, much less he's not even a shoe-in for Top 20 status this year. Luckily for him, he is on a high-octane scoring offense that should afford the starting RB some great opportunities. My advice, SELL HIGH!Great job as always Chris. You are a beacon of light always shining bright even in the darkest night (yeah, I stole that from somewhere). A couple other guys who IMO will be involved and should be listed...Mike Bell, Patrick Cobbs.ETA: I'm a much bigger fan of Ryan Grant's prospects and rank him a lot higher than you or others doing dynasty rankings. Last year's holdout then hammy problem that lingered most of the year, plus a fluky low 4-TD total on a seriously good offense, held his totals down and misrepresented what to expect in the future. His 2nd half run in 2007, I think, is a better barometer of his real value and I am pleased he's not being rated very highly by most. It makes getting him so much easier. IMO he'll finish top-15 this year and at 26 age is not an issue.
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Tau837
Footballguy
Grant will be very fortunate to not get replaced as starting RB for the Packers through next year's draft. When you are on a very good team with championship aspirations, which I believe that the Packers are and their organization and city have high goals, and you are not a special player at a marquee position, you are a candidate for upgrade. And I don't see Grant as a long-term high-end RB, not at all. Enjoy the Top 15-20 season, there is way too much talent on the horizon (already in the league, entering the league, and entering next year) to expect him to hold onto the Top 15 for any extended period, much less he's not even a shoe-in for Top 20 status this year. Luckily for him, he is on a high-octane scoring offense that should afford the starting RB some great opportunities. My advice, SELL HIGH!Great job as always Chris. You are a beacon of light always shining bright even in the darkest night (yeah, I stole that from somewhere). A couple other guys who IMO will be involved and should be listed...Mike Bell, Patrick Cobbs.ETA: I'm a much bigger fan of Ryan Grant's prospects and rank him a lot higher than you or others doing dynasty rankings. Last year's holdout then hammy problem that lingered most of the year, plus a fluky low 4-TD total on a seriously good offense, held his totals down and misrepresented what to expect in the future. His 2nd half run in 2007, I think, is a better barometer of his real value and I am pleased he's not being rated very highly by most. It makes getting him so much easier. IMO he'll finish top-15 this year and at 26 age is not an issue.
Couch Potato
Footballguy
He signed a 4 year extension just last year. They've been clear about him being their 300+ carry workhorse back. I don't know why you think they aren't committed to him since everything the Packers have said or done since putting him in their starting lineup indicates that they are fully committed to him. When he puts up 1300-1500 rushing yards and 10+ TDs and is just 27 going into next year, with the needs they have on defense, I highly doubt they'll waste a high draft pick to replace a guy who is getting the job done. I'll respectfully take the Packers' words and deeds indicating their belief in him over your opinion of his ability.Grant will be very fortunate to not get replaced as starting RB for the Packers through next year's draft. When you are on a very good team with championship aspirations, which I believe that the Packers are and their organization and city have high goals, and you are not a special player at a marquee position, you are a candidate for upgrade. And I don't see Grant as a long-term high-end RB, not at all. Enjoy the Top 15-20 season, there is way too much talent on the horizon (already in the league, entering the league, and entering next year) to expect him to hold onto the Top 15 for any extended period, much less he's not even a shoe-in for Top 20 status this year. Luckily for him, he is on a high-octane scoring offense that should afford the starting RB some great opportunities. My advice, SELL HIGH!Great job as always Chris. You are a beacon of light always shining bright even in the darkest night (yeah, I stole that from somewhere). A couple other guys who IMO will be involved and should be listed...Mike Bell, Patrick Cobbs.ETA: I'm a much bigger fan of Ryan Grant's prospects and rank him a lot higher than you or others doing dynasty rankings. Last year's holdout then hammy problem that lingered most of the year, plus a fluky low 4-TD total on a seriously good offense, held his totals down and misrepresented what to expect in the future. His 2nd half run in 2007, I think, is a better barometer of his real value and I am pleased he's not being rated very highly by most. It makes getting him so much easier. IMO he'll finish top-15 this year and at 26 age is not an issue.No, not missing on purpose. I put about 4-5 hours worth time into the RB rankings, and by the time I got to the bottom I didn't really have the energy to go dumpster diving through depth charts. I don't think any of those four are worth rostering on even 25-man rosters, but there's no reason not to include them. I'll add them later this weekend. Thanks for the heads up.
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Well, you could go to F&L's blog and check his RB rankings.So, I just drafted in a first year dynasty draft. I drafted J. Charles late, but I've been wondering if James Davis(Cle) would be a better player longterm? I'm having abit of trouble with player rankings, etc. having never played dynasty before. Any ideas, clues?
I did go to his blog, they are in the same tier, basically same value. My real question is a very general question on how do you look at players rankings for dynasty? For example, with those two players, Davis is likely to be a starter next year, whereas Johnson is liable to still be playing for the chiefs next year. Do you look at players and go- this guy would be more valuable because he'll get a shot at starting next year? Or do you look at who has more talent and not worry about who's in front of him?Well, you could go to F&L's blog and check his RB rankings.So, I just drafted in a first year dynasty draft. I drafted J. Charles late, but I've been wondering if James Davis(Cle) would be a better player longterm? I'm having abit of trouble with player rankings, etc. having never played dynasty before. Any ideas, clues?
Klecker
Macho Business Donkey Wrestler
Situations change, but talent does not. The best dynasty league owners amass talent and let the situations fall into place.I did go to his blog, they are in the same tier, basically same value. My real question is a very general question on how do you look at players rankings for dynasty? For example, with those two players, Davis is likely to be a starter next year, whereas Johnson is liable to still be playing for the chiefs next year. Do you look at players and go- this guy would be more valuable because he'll get a shot at starting next year? Or do you look at who has more talent and not worry about who's in front of him?Well, you could go to F&L's blog and check his RB rankings.So, I just drafted in a first year dynasty draft. I drafted J. Charles late, but I've been wondering if James Davis(Cle) would be a better player longterm? I'm having abit of trouble with player rankings, etc. having never played dynasty before. Any ideas, clues?
For average NFL talents, any value they have is going to be entirely a result of the situation they find themselves in. For a great example of this, look at Joseph Addai. He's nothing special as far as NFL RBs go- definitely a legit starter-caliber talent, but not anything special at all. As a result, as long as he's the starter for the Colts, he's got value... and as long as he's not, he doesn't.For elite talents, situation doesn't matter at all- elite talents always perform like elite talents eventually. Look at DeAngelo Williams- he was in a terrible situation, buried behind Deshawn Foster and then the team brings in arguably the best RB in the draft in the first round... but in the end, talent wins out. See also: Randy Moss in Oakland, Larry Johnson in Kansas City, Larry Fitzgerald in Arizona (do you know how easy it would have been to stay buried on the depth chart behind Anquan Boldin, who is himself a legit stud?), etc. Just look at Steven Jackson. Over the last two seasons, he's been in possibly the worst possible situation imaginable- terrible offensive line, no weapons at receiver, flux at QB, horror show of a defense- but he's still produced like the stud that he is. That's the thought process behind having Jonathan Stewart ranked so high (and I've seen him a lot higher than F&L has him- some of the staffers have him as a top-10 Dynasty back). The situation might not be great right now, but elite talents don't depend on their situation.Edit: James Jones and Jordy Nelson in GB are two other guys who I like because of their talent more than their situation. They're buried behind Jennings and Driver, but these are both starter-caliber WRs (even if only #2s), and within a year or two I fully expect them to be NFL starters.I did go to his blog, they are in the same tier, basically same value. My real question is a very general question on how do you look at players rankings for dynasty? For example, with those two players, Davis is likely to be a starter next year, whereas Johnson is liable to still be playing for the chiefs next year. Do you look at players and go- this guy would be more valuable because he'll get a shot at starting next year? Or do you look at who has more talent and not worry about who's in front of him?Well, you could go to F&L's blog and check his RB rankings.So, I just drafted in a first year dynasty draft. I drafted J. Charles late, but I've been wondering if James Davis(Cle) would be a better player longterm? I'm having abit of trouble with player rankings, etc. having never played dynasty before. Any ideas, clues?
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kremenull
Footballguy
I must've been sleep like Rip van Winkle for the past few years. When did Grant achieve this? Ahhhhhhh, your projections for him this year. OK!I recall Addai being pretty blessed to be on a high-octane offense and posting pretty good numbers as well. 2 seasons ago, I stated that Willie Parker, yes, the same Parker that was being drafted in the 1st Rd of redrafts and late 1st to early 2nd in dynasty, would be replaced sooner rather than later. 1 season later, Mendenhall drafted in Rd 1. I've never been an Addai supporter, never drafted him in over 50 drafts since he's been in the league, redraft nor dynasty. And I've gone on record to state that he would be replaced sooner rather than later. In '09, enter Donald Brown. I'm just saying, when you aren't a special RB, and Grant is definitely not, you can and often do, get replaced. If I can afford a Bentley, why am I going to drive a Volkswagon? And no, being practical may be a reason you choose the VW, but in the NFL, you want to win, not be practical. If Grant (ala Chester Taylor in '07) can get me 1200-1300 yds and 6-8 TDs, sure it sounds good and all. But when I can draft or acquire a true stud (ala Adrian Peterson), who will get that same blocking and those same open lanes and turn it into 1600 yds and 12+ TDs, then who would you roll with? The better player should always get the nod. Here is a short list of recent upgrades of starting RBs, with productive (or potentially productive) starting RBs in tow. Even attempted upgrades are considered (If a team uses a 1st Rd choice at your position, they are most likely looking to upgrade/replace you, unless the draftee is viewed as a true compliment, ala Felix with Barber....but more on that particular situation further below)1. Adrian Peterson over Chester Taylor 2. Chris Johnson over LenDale White....initially probably Johnson viewed as a compliment to White, now it is obviously the other way around3. Rashard Mendenhall over Willie Parker4. Jonathan Stewart over DeAngelo Williams.......of course, as we now know, DeA responded to the obvious message the org was sending 5. Donald Brown over Joseph Addai....Addai better take a cue from DeA and step up his game in '09In dynasty format, if you're going to invest long-term into a RB, you may want to consider his long-term outlook. Here is my list of guys, who are pretty popular right now, that I believe are candidates for replacement, sooner rather than later. Sure, some of them may dodge the bullet and hold onto their job for quite a bit longer than my "sooner" timeframe would indicate, but for the most part, they probably won't last too long. In no particular order, with some of the reason being that they just aren't special. In the NFL, RB is the easiest position to fill, and when filled it is often intended as an upgrade or equivalent replacement due to contract situation, aging veteran, talent, whatever the primary reason may be. And I keep that in mind quite often......1. Ryan Grant2. Marion Barber...Felix initially was viewed as just a compliment. But now, we will all soon see that he is much more.3. Kevin Smith4. Pierre Thomas5. Marshawn Lynch.....also, I believe "knuckleheadedness" will play a factor to some degree in his demise. The Bills will NOT extend this guy As many will not agree, some will get emotional due to their investment in one or more of these guys, so really, I do not plan to debate back and forth. Again, I'm just a messenger here, take it FWIW.
I doubt that TT spends a high round draft pick on a RB to replace Grant after spending a 2nd (IIRC) on B. Jackson.
TT has seen he can find RB talent all over the place (Wynn, Lumkin) and may not be convinced he needs an elite RB to win games in that pass-oriented offense.
And TT loves his own picks.
That is why I see Jackson as the major threat to Grant in teh next 3 years.
TT has seen he can find RB talent all over the place (Wynn, Lumkin) and may not be convinced he needs an elite RB to win games in that pass-oriented offense.
And TT loves his own picks.
That is why I see Jackson as the major threat to Grant in teh next 3 years.
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Couch Potato
Footballguy
Let's just agree to disagree on Grant. As I said already, I know I'm in the minority on him. I don't mind that. The results won't be decided on a message board. Only time will tell.
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