Dynasty Rankings (11 Viewers)

[SSOG]

I don't disagree with any of that. But look at Slaton's ADP. In redraft leagues and in the FBG contest, Slaton is not in the top 10. So he's being drafted after the studs, as he should be. But in a PPR league, he still represents value as a lower cost #1 RB.

I don't disagree with that, either. I'm mostly disagreeing with the Slaton Bandwagoners who are talking him up as a strong #1 for years to come. Is he a lower-end #1 in PPR leagues this year? Absolutely. Of course, in dynasty terms, this year's "low-end #1" is next year's "high-end #3". See: Parker, Willie; Grant, Ryan; Barber, Marion; Addai, Joseph; Williams, Cadillac. These were all guys who were consensus top-10 dynasty backs at one point who have seen their stock fall dramatically because they weren't as talented as the Petersons, Jones-Drews, or Johnsons of the world and management invariably brought in some competition. I don't think there's any guy who is currently perceived as a top-10 back that I would be less surprised to see outside of the top 20 in a year or two than Slaton.

 

[jdoggydogg]

I don't disagree with any of that. But look at Slaton's ADP. In redraft leagues and in the FBG contest, Slaton is not in the top 10. So he's being drafted after the studs, as he should be. But in a PPR league, he still represents value as a lower cost #1 RB.

I don't disagree with that, either. I'm mostly disagreeing with the Slaton Bandwagoners who are talking him up as a strong #1 for years to come. Is he a lower-end #1 in PPR leagues this year? Absolutely. Of course, in dynasty terms, this year's "low-end #1" is next year's "high-end #3". See: Parker, Willie; Grant, Ryan; Barber, Marion; Addai, Joseph; Williams, Cadillac. These were all guys who were consensus top-10 dynasty backs at one point who have seen their stock fall dramatically because they weren't as talented as the Petersons, Jones-Drews, or Johnsons of the world and management invariably brought in some competition. I don't think there's any guy who is currently perceived as a top-10 back that I would be less surprised to see outside of the top 20 in a year or two than Slaton.

Absolutely. That's why I traded Slaton for Tony Gonzalez in my Dynasty league last year. Gonzalez had far too high a salary cap figure for me to even keep him this offseason. But I picked up Slaton early last year specifically as a backup / trade bait.

 

[MAC_32]

Looks like I'm getting a little resistance re Welker, not too surprised...although I could've explained my stance better. I love Welker, my issue with him being his current value is his ceiling. Looking at his current value I see some profit potential there. A bundle of players would be another option, I'm in rebuild mode in one dyno so that's my plan there. The other one I'm the defending champ but have a lot of question marks for WR depth, if one or two of them emerge making my WR depth less hazy I'd like to explore moving Welker for some improvements at RB a/o QB.

 

[MAC_32]

On Thomas: First off, this seems like a really terrible time to sell on Thomas if you are dead set on doing that. I think he's undervalued(perhaps because so many seem to think he's overvalued) I don't see any reason why he won't be a solid RB2 this year with upside for more. Its amazing that some people think a guy like Mike Bell is an actual threat, its like not wanting Knowshon because you think Hillis could be decent. This whole lack of job security is a media created illusion.

I'm not worried about Mike Bell, my job security concerns are 2010 related. My team needed a perfect storm of health and breakouts to be competitive this season and between Pierre Thomas, Knowshon, Timmons, and Carson's issues I'm losing faith and the games haven't even started yet. I'd like to sell Pierre to a team needing a short term RB for a better long term return. Unfortunately no one is going to give decent value for him until he plays well on the field now....eh, it's not like they were before.

 

[jburns]

f&l, curious on your thoughts on britt tonight. saw you had him pretty low on the dynasty rankings before.

did anything you see make you change your mind on him as a dynasty prospect?

 

[Fear & Loathing]

f&l, curious on your thoughts on britt tonight. saw you had him pretty low on the dynasty rankings before.did anything you see make you change your mind on him as a dynasty prospect?

I didn't know he was ranked low. I thought I had him pretty high Re: Tonight. Nothing I saw changed anything. He was pretty quiet aside from the 57-yard gain on blown coverage. I suspect he'll head to the No. 3 role when Nate Washington is healthy. I still like him, but I'm not expecting a whole lot this year.

 

[awesomeness]

Nate Washington fits better in a slot receiver role than Kenny Britt does imo. Its only a matter of time til Britt's the fulltime #2, if he isn't already.

 

[J R]

On Thomas: First off, this seems like a really terrible time to sell on Thomas if you are dead set on doing that. I think he's undervalued(perhaps because so many seem to think he's overvalued) I don't see any reason why he won't be a solid RB2 this year with upside for more. Its amazing that some people think a guy like Mike Bell is an actual threat, its like not wanting Knowshon because you think Hillis could be decent. This whole lack of job security is a media created illusion.

Yeah, I agree 2 weeks ago would have been better. Before Mike Bell went 10/100/1. But there's a big difference between Knowshon (McDaniels investing a lot in taking him) and Pierre (if they had more picks in 09, what 3rd or 4th round rookie would also be there threatening his future).

Yeah, Knowshon probably wasn't the best comparison. Maybe somebody more like Marion Barber would be a good comparison. But the point remains, nobody is downgrading Barber because of Choice(and Choice is FAR better than Mike Bell) so why is Bell considered a threat to Thomas.

And Barber is arguably far better than Pierre Thomas.

 

[jburns]

f&l, curious on your thoughts on britt tonight. saw you had him pretty low on the dynasty rankings before.did anything you see make you change your mind on him as a dynasty prospect?

I didn't know he was ranked low. I thought I had him pretty high Re: Tonight. Nothing I saw changed anything. He was pretty quiet aside from the 57-yard gain on blown coverage. I suspect he'll head to the No. 3 role when Nate Washington is healthy. I still like him, but I'm not expecting a whole lot this year.

you are right, you did have him pretty high. i "misremembered" your rankings. thanks for your reply, good stuff as always.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Nate Washington fits better in a slot receiver role than Kenny Britt does imo. Its only a matter of time til Britt's the fulltime #2, if he isn't already.

I agree that Washington is more of a situational player than Britt is, but Washington's situation is deep threat not slot receiver.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

On Thomas: First off, this seems like a really terrible time to sell on Thomas if you are dead set on doing that. I think he's undervalued(perhaps because so many seem to think he's overvalued) I don't see any reason why he won't be a solid RB2 this year with upside for more. Its amazing that some people think a guy like Mike Bell is an actual threat, its like not wanting Knowshon because you think Hillis could be decent. This whole lack of job security is a media created illusion.

Yeah, I agree 2 weeks ago would have been better. Before Mike Bell went 10/100/1. But there's a big difference between Knowshon (McDaniels investing a lot in taking him) and Pierre (if they had more picks in 09, what 3rd or 4th round rookie would also be there threatening his future).

Yeah, Knowshon probably wasn't the best comparison. Maybe somebody more like Marion Barber would be a good comparison. But the point remains, nobody is downgrading Barber because of Choice(and Choice is FAR better than Mike Bell) so why is Bell considered a threat to Thomas.

And Barber is arguably far better than Pierre Thomas.

Odd phrasing. Is he better, far better, or arguably better?

Regardless, I find it hard to believe that anybody sees Mike Bell as a long-term threat to any back's value.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Regardless, I find it hard to believe that anybody sees Mike Bell as a long-term threat to any back's value.

But, if you're worried about his long term value regardless of Bell and holding mostly for his short term value, a possible TD vulture and blowout "closer" is definite reason for concern. Are you convinced Pierre's long term value is solid? His 08 season was pretty similar to Ryan Grant in 07. Only difference is Grant got paid, which gave him mid outlook, 2-3 year job security. Now that Pierre's starting the year with a leg injury, just like Grant in 07....The fact that Gruden and Brees speak highly of Pierre makes me think he's not just a flash in the pan. But there's a whole lot of unanswered questions starting in 2010.

 

[valhallan]

f&l, curious on your thoughts on britt tonight. saw you had him pretty low on the dynasty rankings before.did anything you see make you change your mind on him as a dynasty prospect?

I didn't know he was ranked low. I thought I had him pretty high Re: Tonight. Nothing I saw changed anything. He was pretty quiet aside from the 57-yard gain on blown coverage. I suspect he'll head to the No. 3 role when Nate Washington is healthy. I still like him, but I'm not expecting a whole lot this year.

Tiptoeing the sidelines wasn't an impressive play? It amazes me how unexcited dynasty leaguers are for Britt. I get the whole Kerry Collins / Tennessee distaste, but if we're looking at talent over situation long-term then we should be buying him up fast. His first game on the road against a top defense and he gets open deep twice (underthrown on the Polamalu int.) and makes an NFL grab on the sideline, not to mention some very good blocking in the run game. Kid has skills and he's going to stay on the field.. this Nate Washington thing is laughable, and certainly not something that should cloud our judgement of a player's long-term dynasty value.

 

[valhallan]

Willie Parker, likely about a week late here but he's been on my buyer radar all offseason, worth a shot

Agreed. Mendenhall is not making the most of his opportunities and Parker really hasn't shown he's ready to slow down yet.

Disagreed with this one. It looked to me last year like he was juuuuuuust starting to lose that quarter step that signifies decline. I think this year it becomes more obvious, and I think the Steelers don't bring him back unless there's no other team out there that wants him and he gives a steep discount. I love the way F&L put it when comparing Slaton to Parker, how the coaching staff has been cutting out his workload a slice at a time. I think this is the last year that FWP factors prominently in the Steelers' plans and it's time to get what you can for him and move on.

Yeah, looks like I missed on this one. Parker does look washed up. I'm not sure Mendy is much more exciting though, and I own him in a league where I have no RB depth. He's slow and indecisive.

 

[thriftyrocker]

I like Britt a lot and was hoping for a worse stat line so I could buy low on him. Against worse safeties (pretty much everyone in the league) that Polamalu INT is another long completion. Collinsworth slobbered over his out route. What's not to really? That screen pass he got clobbered on was terrible, but really it was just poorly designed.

 

[renesauz]

Willie Parker, likely about a week late here but he's been on my buyer radar all offseason, worth a shot

Agreed. Mendenhall is not making the most of his opportunities and Parker really hasn't shown he's ready to slow down yet.

Disagreed with this one. It looked to me last year like he was juuuuuuust starting to lose that quarter step that signifies decline. I think this year it becomes more obvious, and I think the Steelers don't bring him back unless there's no other team out there that wants him and he gives a steep discount. I love the way F&L put it when comparing Slaton to Parker, how the coaching staff has been cutting out his workload a slice at a time. I think this is the last year that FWP factors prominently in the Steelers' plans and it's time to get what you can for him and move on.

Yeah, looks like I missed on this one. Parker does look washed up. I'm not sure Mendy is much more exciting though, and I own him in a league where I have no RB depth. He's slow and indecisive.

Not sure how much to make of that game last night...there sure weren't many holes for Pitts runners to run though. What I did see (and like) was how Mendenhall seemed to carry multiple defenders forward and fall forward for an extra yard or two on a few of his carries.....granted, they were 0 and 1 yard gains, but they should have been losses.We need to give this another week or two.

 

[valhallan]

Willie Parker, likely about a week late here but he's been on my buyer radar all offseason, worth a shot

Agreed. Mendenhall is not making the most of his opportunities and Parker really hasn't shown he's ready to slow down yet.

Disagreed with this one. It looked to me last year like he was juuuuuuust starting to lose that quarter step that signifies decline. I think this year it becomes more obvious, and I think the Steelers don't bring him back unless there's no other team out there that wants him and he gives a steep discount. I love the way F&L put it when comparing Slaton to Parker, how the coaching staff has been cutting out his workload a slice at a time. I think this is the last year that FWP factors prominently in the Steelers' plans and it's time to get what you can for him and move on.

Yeah, looks like I missed on this one. Parker does look washed up. I'm not sure Mendy is much more exciting though, and I own him in a league where I have no RB depth. He's slow and indecisive.

Not sure how much to make of that game last night...there sure weren't many holes for Pitts runners to run though. What I did see (and like) was how Mendenhall seemed to carry multiple defenders forward and fall forward for an extra yard or two on a few of his carries.....granted, they were 0 and 1 yard gains, but they should have been losses.We need to give this another week or two.

For sure it's too early to write him off, but I'm finding it hard to maintain the excitement I had when picking him 4th in my rookie draft. It shouldn't take very long for a RB to show he's a starter in this league and we certainly shouldn't have to come up with excuses for him. Carrying mutliple defenders was nice, but I'd rather see that happen 5 or 10 yards downfield, not at the line of scrimmage. So far he hasn't shown much ability to hit the hole quickly.

 

[J R]

On Thomas: First off, this seems like a really terrible time to sell on Thomas if you are dead set on doing that. I think he's undervalued(perhaps because so many seem to think he's overvalued) I don't see any reason why he won't be a solid RB2 this year with upside for more. Its amazing that some people think a guy like Mike Bell is an actual threat, its like not wanting Knowshon because you think Hillis could be decent. This whole lack of job security is a media created illusion.

Yeah, I agree 2 weeks ago would have been better. Before Mike Bell went 10/100/1. But there's a big difference between Knowshon (McDaniels investing a lot in taking him) and Pierre (if they had more picks in 09, what 3rd or 4th round rookie would also be there threatening his future).

Yeah, Knowshon probably wasn't the best comparison. Maybe somebody more like Marion Barber would be a good comparison. But the point remains, nobody is downgrading Barber because of Choice(and Choice is FAR better than Mike Bell) so why is Bell considered a threat to Thomas.

And Barber is arguably far better than Pierre Thomas.

Odd phrasing. Is he better, far better, or arguably better?

Regardless, I find it hard to believe that anybody sees Mike Bell as a long-term threat to any back's value.

I meant to riff off the quote - for some reason I thought there was an "arguably" in there, but I don't see it. Regardless, my point is that the difference between the 2 backs in each example is probably about even.I think people who see Bell as a threat to Thomas already see Thomas's value as mostly short-term anyway. Thomas is more or less unproven (of course Bell is proven, just not in a good way).

 

[Fear & Loathing]

f&l, curious on your thoughts on britt tonight. saw you had him pretty low on the dynasty rankings before.did anything you see make you change your mind on him as a dynasty prospect?

I didn't know he was ranked low. I thought I had him pretty high Re: Tonight. Nothing I saw changed anything. He was pretty quiet aside from the 57-yard gain on blown coverage. I suspect he'll head to the No. 3 role when Nate Washington is healthy. I still like him, but I'm not expecting a whole lot this year.

Tiptoeing the sidelines wasn't an impressive play? It amazes me how unexcited dynasty leaguers are for Britt. I get the whole Kerry Collins / Tennessee distaste, but if we're looking at talent over situation long-term then we should be buying him up fast. His first game on the road against a top defense and he gets open deep twice (underthrown on the Polamalu int.) and makes an NFL grab on the sideline, not to mention some very good blocking in the run game. Kid has skills and he's going to stay on the field.. this Nate Washington thing is laughable, and certainly not something that should cloud our judgement of a player's long-term dynasty value.

Don't pick on me. I like Britt. I was talking about his role being No. 3 for this year, and that nothing I saw Thursday night affected my judgment on his long-term value. He's still a guy I like, but I don't have huge expectations for 2009.

 

[az_prof]

Regardless, I find it hard to believe that anybody sees Mike Bell as a long-term threat to any back's value.

But, if you're worried about his long term value regardless of Bell and holding mostly for his short term value, a possible TD vulture and blowout "closer" is definite reason for concern. Are you convinced Pierre's long term value is solid? His 08 season was pretty similar to Ryan Grant in 07. Only difference is Grant got paid, which gave him mid outlook, 2-3 year job security. Now that Pierre's starting the year with a leg injury, just like Grant in 07....The fact that Gruden and Brees speak highly of Pierre makes me think he's not just a flash in the pan. But there's a whole lot of unanswered questions starting in 2010.

I like Pierre Thomas but he hasn't proven he can be a featured back for a full season and starting the season injured doesn't make me feel better about his long term prospects.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

I like Pierre Thomas but he hasn't proven he can be a featured back for a full season and starting the season injured doesn't make me feel better about his long term prospects.

This is pretty much where I'm at with P.T. I believe in his talent, and I think he's a much better all-around player than a guy like Ryan Grant. But there's a nagging concern that he's never carried the load, which would be just a bump in the road if he wasn't starting out the season with an MCL sprain. I think P.T.'s value lies more in the future than 2009, but it's worth noting that he's a RFA after the season (pending a labor accord). It's in his best bet to get healthy and start showing the Saints how valuable he is starting in Week 2.

 

[valhallan]

f&l, curious on your thoughts on britt tonight. saw you had him pretty low on the dynasty rankings before.did anything you see make you change your mind on him as a dynasty prospect?

I didn't know he was ranked low. I thought I had him pretty high Re: Tonight. Nothing I saw changed anything. He was pretty quiet aside from the 57-yard gain on blown coverage. I suspect he'll head to the No. 3 role when Nate Washington is healthy. I still like him, but I'm not expecting a whole lot this year.

Tiptoeing the sidelines wasn't an impressive play? It amazes me how unexcited dynasty leaguers are for Britt. I get the whole Kerry Collins / Tennessee distaste, but if we're looking at talent over situation long-term then we should be buying him up fast. His first game on the road against a top defense and he gets open deep twice (underthrown on the Polamalu int.) and makes an NFL grab on the sideline, not to mention some very good blocking in the run game. Kid has skills and he's going to stay on the field.. this Nate Washington thing is laughable, and certainly not something that should cloud our judgement of a player's long-term dynasty value.

Don't pick on me. I like Britt. I was talking about his role being No. 3 for this year, and that nothing I saw Thursday night affected my judgment on his long-term value. He's still a guy I like, but I don't have huge expectations for 2009.

Sorry, collateral damage. I was referring more to dynasty leaguers as a whole. However, I'm still a little baffled that people think Washington will push him to the bench. Britt blocks really well and I think that'll keep him on the field.

 

[travdogg]

On Thomas: First off, this seems like a really terrible time to sell on Thomas if you are dead set on doing that. I think he's undervalued(perhaps because so many seem to think he's overvalued) I don't see any reason why he won't be a solid RB2 this year with upside for more. Its amazing that some people think a guy like Mike Bell is an actual threat, its like not wanting Knowshon because you think Hillis could be decent. This whole lack of job security is a media created illusion.

I'm not worried about Mike Bell, my job security concerns are 2010 related. My team needed a perfect storm of health and breakouts to be competitive this season and between Pierre Thomas, Knowshon, Timmons, and Carson's issues I'm losing faith and the games haven't even started yet. I'd like to sell Pierre to a team needing a short term RB for a better long term return. Unfortunately no one is going to give decent value for him until he plays well on the field now....eh, it's not like they were before.

I'm not sure about Timmons because I've never played in an IDP league, but I'm not really worried about the other 3 guys being major contributors this season. In Thomas and Knowshon's case, it almost certainly won't be in week one, but who is to say they aren't both top notch RB2's by week 3?

 

[munchkin]

Regardless, I find it hard to believe that anybody sees Mike Bell as a long-term threat to any back's value.

But, if you're worried about his long term value regardless of Bell and holding mostly for his short term value, a possible TD vulture and blowout "closer" is definite reason for concern. Are you convinced Pierre's long term value is solid? His 08 season was pretty similar to Ryan Grant in 07. Only difference is Grant got paid, which gave him mid outlook, 2-3 year job security. Now that Pierre's starting the year with a leg injury, just like Grant in 07....

The fact that Gruden and Brees speak highly of Pierre makes me think he's not just a flash in the pan. But there's a whole lot of unanswered questions starting in 2010.

Gruden spoke highly of Alex Smith and the Patriots cut him. Now, granted, he was picked up by the "Desperately Seeking Tight-End" Eagles, but he hasn't shown the ability to play to his potential either.Thomas has played more to his ability than Smith has but I think you have to take some of the praise that is offered out there with a grain of salt.

 

[MAC_32]

On Thomas: First off, this seems like a really terrible time to sell on Thomas if you are dead set on doing that. I think he's undervalued(perhaps because so many seem to think he's overvalued) I don't see any reason why he won't be a solid RB2 this year with upside for more. Its amazing that some people think a guy like Mike Bell is an actual threat, its like not wanting Knowshon because you think Hillis could be decent. This whole lack of job security is a media created illusion.

I'm not worried about Mike Bell, my job security concerns are 2010 related. My team needed a perfect storm of health and breakouts to be competitive this season and between Pierre Thomas, Knowshon, Timmons, and Carson's issues I'm losing faith and the games haven't even started yet. I'd like to sell Pierre to a team needing a short term RB for a better long term return. Unfortunately no one is going to give decent value for him until he plays well on the field now....eh, it's not like they were before.

I'm not sure about Timmons because I've never played in an IDP league, but I'm not really worried about the other 3 guys being major contributors this season. In Thomas and Knowshon's case, it almost certainly won't be in week one, but who is to say they aren't both top notch RB2's by week 3?

Timmons has LB1 upside and needed to show it this year for my team since I don't have anything else on the roster at LB above a low end LB2. I will lose the LB1 battle just about every week Timmons isn't playing 3 downs, which is indefinitely at this point. Thankfully I was able to snatch up Mike Bell so I stand a chance to win the RB2 battle while Pierre heals but already losing the RB1 battle (Chris Johnson) and with Josh Morgan and Percy Harvin at WR2 and flex instead of one or the other + Knownshon and Quinn starting week 1 because I don't trust Carson just yet I'm not optimistic I can win those battles either. If there's one thing I know this team can't do is climb out of a hole, especially as only 4 teams make the playoffs.

 

[Harjiran]

Bump Big Ben? Looks like the Steelers may air it out more this season.

 

[EBF]

Bump Big Ben? Looks like the Steelers may air it out more this season.

Possibly. He has a few of these games every season, so this one doesn't necessarily mean much, but their running game has looked pathetic all offseason and last night wasn't any different. They simply can't run block right now.The fact that Moore was in the game down the stretch last night instead of Parker or Mendenhall speaks volumes about where their offense is right now. Ben certainly has the talent to capitalize if he continues to chuck it 30-40 times per game.

 

[munchkin]

Bump Big Ben? Looks like the Steelers may air it out more this season.

Possibly. He has a few of these games every season, so this one doesn't necessarily mean much, but their running game has looked pathetic all offseason and last night wasn't any different. They simply can't run block right now.The fact that Moore was in the game down the stretch last night instead of Parker or Mendenhall speaks volumes about where their offense is right now. Ben certainly has the talent to capitalize if he continues to chuck it 30-40 times per game.

How long will he stay healthy? If the team stays one dimentionalhe could be in trouble physically. He doesn't like to dump the ball off resulting in a lot of hits and sacks. If the line can't protect him or run block he will have to take more measures to help himself; that doesn't appear to be in his make-up.

 

[Synesthesia]

F&L, long time listener, first time caller. Your stuff inspired me to work on some dynasty rankings of my own. I'd love to post them and get some feedback, but I'd rather not start a new thread and fracture this great dynasty discussion. Would you mind terrible if I posted them here and you perhaps tossed a link to them in the first post so they wouldn't get buried? Thanks, I'll hang up and listen.

 

[valhallan]

I think you'd be better off starting a new thread because it'll get buried in here. New threads that stimulate discussion are always appreciated.

 

[SSOG]

How long will he stay healthy? If the team stays one dimentionalhe could be in trouble physically. He doesn't like to dump the ball off resulting in a lot of hits and sacks. If the line can't protect him or run block he will have to take more measures to help himself; that doesn't appear to be in his make-up.

Big Ben reminds me a lot of Steve McNair, both in terms of how much punishment he takes, how much his size allows him to take it, and how he plays through injuries. He's always a CONCERN, but I don't know how much more of a RISK he is than a more traditional QB.

 

[az_prof]

How long will he stay healthy? If the team stays one dimentionalhe could be in trouble physically. He doesn't like to dump the ball off resulting in a lot of hits and sacks. If the line can't protect him or run block he will have to take more measures to help himself; that doesn't appear to be in his make-up.

Big Ben reminds me a lot of Steve McNair, both in terms of how much punishment he takes, how much his size allows him to take it, and how he plays through injuries. He's always a CONCERN, but I don't know how much more of a RISK he is than a more traditional QB.

Right. He DOES take more punishment because of how he plays, but on the other hand, he seems built to be able to withstand more punishment than most QBs.

 

[stevegamer]

The other thread about Dynasty QB strategy has gotten me thinking about NFL backup QB's & their dynasty prospects.

Besides Leinart (who I think is the clear #2, and has a future in AZ) who do you guys have as your top 2-3 backup QB's and why?

 

[SSOG]

The other thread about Dynasty QB strategy has gotten me thinking about NFL backup QB's & their dynasty prospects.Besides Leinart (who I think is the clear #2, and has a future in AZ) who do you guys have as your top 2-3 backup QB's and why?

I really like Henne. I liked him coming out, and he looks like the guy in Miami starting next year. I remain absolutely convinced that Rosenfels and Culpepper could still be very productive QBs, although I'm starting to cool on their prospects of ever getting the chance. Jim Sorgi's worth owning if you're a Peyton Manning owner- I figure at this point, the fact that he's *STILL* the backup for like the 8th consecutive season means that Indy is extremely confident in his ability to run that offense at a near-Manning level if Peyton ever goes down. Whichever TB QB isn't starting is still probably worth owning- Byron Leftwich has a chance to have another couple of years as an NFL starter for some team looking for a stopgap, and Josh Freeman was a 1st round pick. Seneca Wallace is a really interesting name- I'd be really curious to see what he could do as a starter, because he's SO different, and I feel like different can very easily equal value. Ditto that for Pat White. A *huge* name that everyone seems to forget about is Vince Young. He's in essentially the same situation as Leinart (disappointing rookie behind extremely old veteran, franchise has made a huge commitment to him, recently had to compete to secure the #2 role), but Young actually looked better than Leinart when both were playing. I think it's way too early to write off Vince. Kevin Kolb is a guy I'm not very high on at all (I didn't like him coming out, and I think McNabb has a lot more left than people give him credit for), but he's at least a name worth bringing up.To group the backups into tiers, here's how I'd value them.Top Tier (GREAT stashes):Chad Henne, Matt Leinart, Vince Young, Josh Freeman.Second Tier (could provide value if they get a shot):Byron Leftwich, Sage Rosenfels, Daunte Culpepper, Jim Sorgi, Kevin KolbWildcards:Seneca Wallace, Pat WhiteRealistically, though, only Henne/Leinart/Young/Freeman have any hope of becoming a Rodgers/Rivers/Palmer-type story (sat on the bench behind a vet and then became a stud). I suppose Kolb does, too... but as I said, I never liked him. Backup QBs with upside are very, very rare. With the second group of guys, I'm hoping for a Brad Johnson or a Jeff Blake.

 

[EBF]

The other thread about Dynasty QB strategy has gotten me thinking about NFL backup QB's & their dynasty prospects.Besides Leinart (who I think is the clear #2, and has a future in AZ) who do you guys have as your top 2-3 backup QB's and why?

There's not much out there right now IMO. The new trend is to start your rookie QB, so guys like Flacco, Sanchez, and Stafford aren't riding the pine like they might've been with other teams (see: Rodgers, Rivers, Pennington, Leinart, etc). Some guys worth a look:Stephen McGee, Dallas - Liked what I saw at the Shrine Game. High pick who could develop into a starter.Brian Hoyer, New England - Another Shrine Game standout. Beat out O'Connell, Gutierrez, and Walter as a rookie. Dennis Dixon, Pittsburgh - A total project, but you never know. He seems to be improving as a passer. David Carr, NYG - Don't laugh. He has first round tools and he might re-emerge now that he has had time to relax and mature.ETA: I agree that Henne is a nice option. He should get a shot pretty soon.

 

[FUBAR]

The other thread about Dynasty QB strategy has gotten me thinking about NFL backup QB's & their dynasty prospects.Besides Leinart (who I think is the clear #2, and has a future in AZ) who do you guys have as your top 2-3 backup QB's and why?

I really like Henne. I liked him coming out, and he looks like the guy in Miami starting next year. I remain absolutely convinced that Rosenfels and Culpepper could still be very productive QBs, although I'm starting to cool on their prospects of ever getting the chance. Jim Sorgi's worth owning if you're a Peyton Manning owner- I figure at this point, the fact that he's *STILL* the backup for like the 8th consecutive season means that Indy is extremely confident in his ability to run that offense at a near-Manning level if Peyton ever goes down. Whichever TB QB isn't starting is still probably worth owning- Byron Leftwich has a chance to have another couple of years as an NFL starter for some team looking for a stopgap, and Josh Freeman was a 1st round pick. Seneca Wallace is a really interesting name- I'd be really curious to see what he could do as a starter, because he's SO different, and I feel like different can very easily equal value. Ditto that for Pat White. A *huge* name that everyone seems to forget about is Vince Young. He's in essentially the same situation as Leinart (disappointing rookie behind extremely old veteran, franchise has made a huge commitment to him, recently had to compete to secure the #2 role), but Young actually looked better than Leinart when both were playing. I think it's way too early to write off Vince. Kevin Kolb is a guy I'm not very high on at all (I didn't like him coming out, and I think McNabb has a lot more left than people give him credit for), but he's at least a name worth bringing up.To group the backups into tiers, here's how I'd value them.Top Tier (GREAT stashes):Chad Henne, Matt Leinart, Vince Young, Josh Freeman.Second Tier (could provide value if they get a shot):Byron Leftwich, Sage Rosenfels, Daunte Culpepper, Jim Sorgi, Kevin KolbWildcards:Seneca Wallace, Pat WhiteRealistically, though, only Henne/Leinart/Young/Freeman have any hope of becoming a Rodgers/Rivers/Palmer-type story (sat on the bench behind a vet and then became a stud). I suppose Kolb does, too... but as I said, I never liked him. Backup QBs with upside are very, very rare. With the second group of guys, I'm hoping for a Brad Johnson or a Jeff Blake.

I agree with your top tier. My top 3 current backups are Henne, Leinart, and Freeman. Deeper I actually like Brandstater.

 

[Tau837]

Bump Big Ben? Looks like the Steelers may air it out more this season.

Possibly. He has a few of these games every season, so this one doesn't necessarily mean much, but their running game has looked pathetic all offseason and last night wasn't any different. They simply can't run block right now.The fact that Moore was in the game down the stretch last night instead of Parker or Mendenhall speaks volumes about where their offense is right now. Ben certainly has the talent to capitalize if he continues to chuck it 30-40 times per game.

How long will he stay healthy? If the team stays one dimentionalhe could be in trouble physically. He doesn't like to dump the ball off resulting in a lot of hits and sacks. If the line can't protect him or run block he will have to take more measures to help himself; that doesn't appear to be in his make-up.

I was thinking the same thing last night. I don't see him lasting the season if he gets hit regularly like he did last night.

 

[SSOG]

I agree with your top tier. My top 3 current backups are Henne, Leinart, and Freeman. Deeper I actually like Brandstater.

No love from the Titans fan for Vince Young? Who's going to be QBing your team once Kerry Collins breaks his hip? Do you think the Titans draft another rookie next year or bring in another veteran?I'm not a big Brandstater fan at all. The fact that management prefers an 80% Orton or a 90% Simms to him is telling, even if he is a rookie. He's just another Bradlee Van Pelt / Matt Mauck kind of guy, someone to keep that QB3 seat warm until next year when management gets another butt to fill the seat.

 

[SSOG]

The other thread about Dynasty QB strategy has gotten me thinking about NFL backup QB's & their dynasty prospects.Besides Leinart (who I think is the clear #2, and has a future in AZ) who do you guys have as your top 2-3 backup QB's and why?

There's not much out there right now IMO. The new trend is to start your rookie QB, so guys like Flacco, Sanchez, and Stafford aren't riding the pine like they might've been with other teams (see: Rodgers, Rivers, Pennington, Leinart, etc). Some guys worth a look:Stephen McGee, Dallas - Liked what I saw at the Shrine Game. High pick who could develop into a starter.Brian Hoyer, New England - Another Shrine Game standout. Beat out O'Connell, Gutierrez, and Walter as a rookie. Dennis Dixon, Pittsburgh - A total project, but you never know. He seems to be improving as a passer. David Carr, NYG - Don't laugh. He has first round tools and he might re-emerge now that he has had time to relax and mature.ETA: I agree that Henne is a nice option. He should get a shot pretty soon.

I do like Dixon as a high-upside stash. I've soured on Carr, though. I liked him going into Carolina... not so much coming out.

 

[munchkin]

How long will he stay healthy? If the team stays one dimensional he could be in trouble physically. He doesn't like to dump the ball off resulting in a lot of hits and sacks. If the line can't protect him or run block he will have to take more measures to help himself; that doesn't appear to be in his make-up.

Big Ben reminds me a lot of Steve McNair, both in terms of how much punishment he takes, how much his size allows him to take it, and how he plays through injuries. He's always a CONCERN, but I don't know how much more of a RISK he is than a more traditional QB.

Then they don't need to improve their line play? Playing through an injury is not the same as playing injury free. I call that a greater risk. There is a greater risk of him being less effective. I wasn't comparing him to anyone else necessarily; I was commenting on his ability to play to his potential.

 

[SSOG]

How long will he stay healthy? If the team stays one dimensional he could be in trouble physically. He doesn't like to dump the ball off resulting in a lot of hits and sacks. If the line can't protect him or run block he will have to take more measures to help himself; that doesn't appear to be in his make-up.

Big Ben reminds me a lot of Steve McNair, both in terms of how much punishment he takes, how much his size allows him to take it, and how he plays through injuries. He's always a CONCERN, but I don't know how much more of a RISK he is than a more traditional QB.

Then they don't need to improve their line play? Playing through an injury is not the same as playing injury free. I call that a greater risk. There is a greater risk of him being less effective. I wasn't comparing him to anyone else necessarily; I was commenting on his ability to play to his potential.

For as terrible as they were in run blocking, the line really stepped up in pass protection over the last half of the game last night. Also, Ben has the kind of body type where he can absorb more hits without getting an injury. I'm not saying he's not an injury risk, but historically speaking *ALL* QBs are huge injury risks (according to Drinen's old study, the average QB plays 13 games a season, and only 37.5% play a full 16). I don't know how much more of an injury risk he is than, say, a Carson Palmer, a Matt Schaub, a Jay Cutler, an Aaron Rodgers, or a Philip Rivers.

 

[Cookiemonster]

I'm not really sorry to be the one to bump this for Caddy's sake. 8 carries, 77 yds and a TD before halftime

 

[corpcow]

Timmons has LB1 upside and needed to show it this year for my team since I don't have anything else on the roster at LB above a low end LB2. I will lose the LB1 battle just about every week Timmons isn't playing 3 downs, which is indefinitely at this point.

Eh? Timmons is a 3-down backer - he was inactive for the first game but should be back for week 2. (Plus has extra time to rest this week).

 

[corpcow]

For my money, there are probably 8-10 backs I would take over Slaton in a dynasty format, and there are others (e.g., Ray Rice, Donald Brown, Chris Wells) who I consider to have similar long-term upside. The difference is, I could trade Slaton for one of those guys PLUS a few picks or other players.

Well, that solves it right there. He must be a bum if he is ranked only 9-11 in your mind...... Let's see. About the same size (height and weight) as Frank Gore, LT, Emmitt Smith, Marshall Faulk, and Priest Holmes. Bigger than Chris Johnson, Brian Westbrook, Tiki Barber, and Barry Sanders. But every doubter seems to believe that Slaton is too small to carry a full load. Incredible logic and certainly history agrees......Again, this time double

One season, 10 TDs. Exactly how many double-digit TD seasons has Frank Gore enjoyed? If you answered zero, you get the prize. Now if you believe you are selling high 'cause you end up with D.Brown or Ray Rice plus something else, who knows, you may be OK. But I wouldn't do it. I believe Slaton is better than either of those guys.

Listen, to make this simple I guess you all must think I believe Slaton is the best RB in the league. No, I do not. But on the flip side, when people value him as some average RB who could be replaced at any moment, my answer is this. EVERY RB in the league has to go out and prove himself, year in and year out. It's not just Slaton. If you don't answer the bell, you will get replaced. And thus far, from what I have seen and read, this kid will be just fine.....for quite some time.

I never said he was a bum... only that I don't think he's a "S-T-U-D" as you keep saying. Maybe your definition of "STUD" is different than mine. The problem - and as I've said repeatedly - is that some are valuing him as a top 5 dynasty RB and I think he's grossly overvalued at that price. When I look at Slaton, I see last year being at or near his peak, while he's being valued as if it's his floor.

I would not trade him straight up for Donald Brown, but the point is that I didn't have to. In that league, the trade was Donald Brown (who I in turn traded) and TWO MORE 1st rounders for the next 2 yrs, each of which should be in the top 5 or so.

Well, a STUD RB in my book is a guy who has Top 5 potential, year in and year out. Until proven otherwise, yes, I believe Slaton fits that bill. When you factor in the Kubiak offensive scheme, he's that much more valuable. Although, this is a guy who is not scheme dependent, IMO, but hey, it doesn't hurt to have an explosive overall offense and great play-caller. For those that believe the Texans system is responsible for his numbers, how come nobody performed as well in this system (under Kubiak) before him, if it was that cut-and-dry?

Slaton sure didn't look like a "S-T-U-D" today. Jussayin'.

 

[corpcow]

SSOG - I have to say, I kind of find it interesting that you're SO against Caddy and yet you have Chris Perry, Ryan Torain, Antonio Pittman, or Lorenzo Booker rostered. None of these guys are taken in any of my *16* team dynasties, let alone a 10 team league. I don't think any of them have ANY upside. If you think they are worth a roster spot, how in the hell is Caddy not?

It's a combination of four factors. The first factor is the fact that waivers are closed. The second factor is deep benches (30 players per team with no PKs, 90 total RBs rostered). The third factor is that I have a long history of trading multiple players (or players and picks) for a single player... which leaves me with a very short roster and some real woofers at the end of my bench (many of whom were guys the other team was going to cut to make room for the trade who got sent to me to make the numbers even). The fourth factor is that our league doesn't do worst-to-first waivers: everyone retains their waiver priority from week to week, and I've been holding the #1 waiver priority since the middle of last season, meaning the only players I've had a shot at are those that cleared waivers. So... to address those players you specifically singled out: Ryan Torain had value until McDaniels drafted Moreno (now he's on the chopping block). Ditto that for Selvin Young. I was giving Anthony Pittman his two year courtesy hold to see if he could show me anything because I liked how he played in college (he hasn't, he's gone as soon as I need room on my roster). Ditto that for Lorenzo Booker. Chris Perry is on my roster because he was on my roster last season (when he was worth a flier) and because I haven't done any cuts yet. If Caddy was available as a free agent, I'd roster him over any of those guys (although I wouldn't burn my #1 waiver priority to grab him)... but there are 90 RBs rostered in my dynasty league (and that's not counting any rookies), so, logically speaking, an RB could be the 80th best dynasty RB and still be worthy of a roster spot. I do agree that all of those backs you named are junk just like Caddy (more so, even)... but I can't add anyone to replace them and, if nothing else, they're all worth more than an empty roster spot (if barely). Suffice it to say there'll be a big shakeup once waivers open.

Unfortunately I wasn't able to watch the game here, but Caddy's line sure looked good. 13-97-1, with a long run of 35 and a 1 yd td run. Higher YPC than Ward who also put up a nice statline.Are you going to use that waiver priority on him?

 

[SSOG]

Unfortunately I wasn't able to watch the game here, but Caddy's line sure looked good. 13-97-1, with a long run of 35 and a 1 yd td run. Higher YPC than Ward who also put up a nice statline.Are you going to use that waiver priority on him?

Like I said, Caddy's not on the street in my league. If he was, I would have added him already. I was never saying that Caddy wasn't worth rostering (at least in my league, which is a very deep league), I said he wasn't worth paying for.I wound up getting the TB game today, so I saw him. I thought he looked better today than he ever had in the league before, even his rookie season. I'm still maintaining a healthy skepticism, though, because the TB O-line was opening some GAPING holes, and because Ward looked equally good. In fact, the Buc that impressed me the most today was Michael Clayton. I made a couple of comments about him through the game, but he was partying like it was 2004. He looked even better than his stat line indicated. Of course, just like with Caddy, I'm approaching him with a healthy level of skepticism.

 

[benm3218]

Sanchez? I could just be fan goggles cause I own him in all my Dynasty leagues but MAN he looks like a 3 year vet out there. Was anyone else impressed? I mean am I reading to much into it? He looks like he could startable almost right now and he hasn't even been seasoned yet....

 

[munchkin]

How long will he stay healthy? If the team stays one dimensional he could be in trouble physically. He doesn't like to dump the ball off resulting in a lot of hits and sacks. If the line can't protect him or run block he will have to take more measures to help himself; that doesn't appear to be in his make-up.

Big Ben reminds me a lot of Steve McNair, both in terms of how much punishment he takes, how much his size allows him to take it, and how he plays through injuries. He's always a CONCERN, but I don't know how much more of a RISK he is than a more traditional QB.

Then they don't need to improve their line play? Playing through an injury is not the same as playing injury free. I call that a greater risk. There is a greater risk of him being less effective. I wasn't comparing him to anyone else necessarily; I was commenting on his ability to play to his potential.

For as terrible as they were in run blocking, the line really stepped up in pass protection over the last half of the game last night. Also, Ben has the kind of body type where he can absorb more hits without getting an injury. I'm not saying he's not an injury risk, but historically speaking *ALL* QBs are huge injury risks (according to Drinen's old study, the average QB plays 13 games a season, and only 37.5% play a full 16). I don't know how much more of an injury risk he is than, say, a Carson Palmer, a Matt Schaub, a Jay Cutler, an Aaron Rodgers, or a Philip Rivers.

I won't argue with that but is the average QB on a Super Bowl contending team? Even in the age of parity, all injuries are not created equal.

 

[MAC_32]

Timmons has LB1 upside and needed to show it this year for my team since I don't have anything else on the roster at LB above a low end LB2. I will lose the LB1 battle just about every week Timmons isn't playing 3 downs, which is indefinitely at this point.

Eh? Timmons is a 3-down backer - he was inactive for the first game but should be back for week 2. (Plus has extra time to rest this week).

I hope you're right, last I read he is week to week. If he is a GTD this week he'll probably be on my bench as I won't be around to make a last minute adjustment.

 

[MAC_32]

The other thread about Dynasty QB strategy has gotten me thinking about NFL backup QB's & their dynasty prospects.Besides Leinart (who I think is the clear #2, and has a future in AZ) who do you guys have as your top 2-3 backup QB's and why?

Henne's my favorite, but he's rostered everywhere, I doubt I'll get a shot to trade for him.Haven't followed the Carolina situation much, but Matt Moore bears watching, although Delhomme's going to be given a longer leash than he should due to his contract.A guy I will be adding once the bye weeks start to pass - Andre Woodson. Regardless of your opinion on the kid's skills, the Skins are not behaving like Jason Campbell is their future, Collins is a veteran stopgap, and they seem to have soured on Colt since July (correctly imho). I don't think Woodson starts before December this season, if at all, but a good camp next season and he may get a shot. They claimed for a reason, right? Kid's got talent, but had a lot of mechanical problems coming out of school needing addressed before stepping on the field.