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yes, i think he has a bright future as westbrook's replacement. yes, i think it could happen pretty much full-time next year. no, i don't think he's going to be anywhere near as good. he's not as good a runner and he's not as good a receiver. he had a couple of bad drops tonight.
I personally think Ryan has looked very good (on the whole) this year. His numbers have not always been great, but I think especially in the last few weeks the numbers don't tell the whole story. E.g., much was written about how "he was so careless with the ball" last week, but obviously one of those just a hail mary at the end of the game. And he reportedly has been a great student of the game, working hard to improve etc.So yeah, he's not putting up top 5-10 numbers RIGHT NOW, but he's also not that far off from a PPG perspective. I mean, really, I think he HAS to be a top 10 dynasty QB.
If Ryan is your #1 I think you have to expect these growing pains. He is still only a 2nd year QB. The team's best chance to win is to ride Turner when he is running well. Witten is a bigger question mark. He is too young (27) to be done physically. Granted Dallas tried to be a running team for the first few games and that perhaps changed his outlook, but still Romo is not hitting him in stride over the middle of the field and he isn't barreling people over for YAC. It makes me think there's some injury being hidden - he played throw cracked ribs last year when it affected his ability to breathe let alone move, so he'd probably play through anything.Granted he's on pace for 88 catches and almost 800 yards, but obviously he's not the same guy he was even last year.
I agree with this. McCoy is good, but he isn't great. Westbrook in his prime could carry the Eagles--he quite literally accounted for 70-80% of the yards in some games. And he could score from anywhere on the field. I don't see McCoy with that game changing ability or with the ability to be the guy who carries the offense. He is the heir apparent and will do well, but not great.
Honestly, I think both are experiencing a slight bump in the road for some fairly easily explained reasons. In terms of Witten - he's still easily in the top 10 in TEs in terms of targets and 2nd in receptions (only Dallas Clark has more) - he just hasn't found the endzone enough. If he had 3-4 more TDs (which are fluky) to go along with all those recpetions, he'd be in the top 5 TEs. He'll get them.In terms of Matty Ice, I think it helps if you look at some of his "bad games" individually. Starting with yesterday and working backwards - he didn't pass alot because he simply didn't have to. Turner was running the ball down the throats of the 'skins and Atlanta was up big early with the Tye Hill pick 6. His previous bad game was at New Orleans - a team that will likely be representing the NFC in the Superbowl. Also, one of the INTs Ryan threw was on the very last play of the game down 8. The Dallas game was another odd game for the Falcons, IMHO. First off, Turner wasn't able to do much (18 rushes for 50 yards) and once again, the Falcons found themselves down early on the road (17-7 at half). In the Patriots game, again, Turner was fairly ineffective 15 rushes for only 56 yards. So, for Ryan, you have a game where his team lead early (this past week) and 3 road losses - 2 of which his RB only rushed for about 50 yards. I think part of Ryan's "issues" are simply learning how to play with a new TE (incidentally, Gonzalez is used in the passing game, not to block as much, which is why I think Turner's numbers have been all over the place too), and learning to play on the road in the NFL (and @ Dallas, NO and NE aren't easy places to play). Incidentally, he's been sacked 12 times so far this season. Last year he was sacked only 17 times. I realize I like Ryan and it may seem like I'm making "excuses" for him - but really in both Witten and Ryan's cases, I think it's more a small blip, than an indicator of anything drastically wrong in the future.
I drafted him as a rookie and have hung onto him, but wondering if this may not be a good time to sell high? I am starting to believe in his talent but just not sure if he will ever be a featured element in the offense. At this point, I am leaning toward holding for another year. I wonder if he has one more year left (through 2010?) or two (2011)? I would like to see him go to an offense where he was featured more.
I believe I saw a study once that said that a guy whose game is based on speed is more likely to play longer than a guy whose game isn't based on speed. Which does make intuitive sense- a player has to meet a certain speed threshold to play in the NFL. Nothing else you can do matters if you're running a 5.5 forty- you simply cannot play WR in the league, end of discussion. As a result, the guys who are well above the threshold (i.e. Randy Moss) can lose a step or two and still remain above the threshold (a great example of this is Joey Galloway). On the other hand, the slower WRs, the guys who are barely above the threshold to begin with, can't. As soon as they lose a single step, they're out of the league.Of course, I can't recall the exact nature of the study, so it's possible I'm misremembering, or making this up, or confusing it with a similar study in baseball. Either way, it makes intuitive sense. I don't think Moss is any more of an age-related risk than any other 32 year old WR (and he's probably significantly less of a risk than most).
Maclin isn't in Crabtree or Nicks' class when it comes to talent. He's also not in Desean Jackson's class. I'd roll with Crabtree and Nicks without looking back.
Thomas Jones led the AFC is rushing last season (with 15 total TDs) and has over 700 yards rushing and 7 TDs this season. Surely you can see a difference in paying him over the likes of Chester Taylor, Willie Parker or Lamont Jordan.The Jets were not going to bring Thomas Jones back before Washington's injury and the talk now is merely beat writer speculation - not a forgone conclusion. The staff is very impressed with Greene and have said that he was the highest rated RB on their draft board (that could be a little BS).I don't think bring Jones back reflects on Greene at all. Washington's injury was devastating and the words "career ending" were being tossed around.
agree to disagree. They play the same role in the offense, so I can't see how it DOESN'T reflect on Greene. $5 million is an awful lot to spend on a backup.
Right.... SSOG, I don't really think those are great comparatives. Regardless of what you think about Green, I don't think possibly bringing back Jones next year is a condemnation of him. (That is, I think it clearly hurts his VALUE, but I don't think it is a reflection of what the coaching staff things of him). The reality is that Jones is a bit more well-rounded than Green, and they knew that. I think going in the plan was for Leon and Green, collectively, to share the load. If Leon doesn't get hurt, Jones is almost definitely gone. Now, especially given how well TJ has played, they better at least entertain the possibility of bringin him back with Leon's uncertainty.
As I said above, I think it clearly affects his VALUE, but I don't think it's a reflection that they don't trust Green... rather, it's that they don't trust Leon to recover well from the injury. And, let's be honest - at this point it's nothing more than speculation.
Just because you take some one's job doesn't mean you get his "production". Both are small but Westbrook has more bulk and a better balance which makes him a deceptively strong inside runner. McCoy is a weak runner and doesn't have the frame to add much bulk. As others stated or insinuated McCoy makes moves for the sake of making moves instead of just heading downfield.Also Westbrook in his prime was the only show in town (except for the TO years), so the offense ran through him. With Jackson and Maclin on the outside, the Eagles don't need to force fee McCoy the ball in the passing game like they did Westbrook.
They are really not the "same" back even if we as fantasy players see them in the "same" role. Jones isn't a power runner (although he has good leg drive and strength). He can get outside and break long runs and is a far superior pass catcher to Greene (whio frnakly sucks at it right now).Jones can easily play the "Washington role" (albeit far less dynamically) in a RBBC with Greene.agree to disagree. They play the same role in the offense, so I can't see how it DOESN'T reflect on Greene. $5 million is an awful lot to spend on a backup.
I agree with you. That was the only negative about him I could think of.I believe so. Aside from that, I'm not aware of any issues. As far as I know, he's a hard worker. And I'm not aware that he has ever had injury issues. I'm in Virginia, so I may not be fully tuned in to local news, but I would think of him as a durable, high work ethic guy with good character. (I don't view one DUI with no other off field issues as equating to bad character... though I am not saying I condone his DUI.)Doesn't he have an outstanding DUI?Actually, since I've got you here, I'd love to hear a Charger fan's take on VJax. Does he have any character or injury concerns that a casual fan might not know about? Is he generally thought of as a high work ethic guy or a low work ethic guy?Uh, yeah, well, I just wanted to reinforce that point...
I agree mostly. So let's venture some guesses of what we can count on. Maybe 75% of Westbrook's peak production? If that happens McCoy still ranks as a RB1. Is 75% a safe guess?
It's true that just because you take someone's job doesn't mean you get his "production." And its never wise to predict a players fantasy production after a season or two (how many people thought Brian Westbrook would be a stud after his rookie year season); but McCoy seems to have a lot going for him. He isn't built the same way, and I would agree that so far he's not as talented an inside runner or receiver as Westbrook is. However, I would disagree that McCoy is a weak inside runner. For a guy who's known for his jukes and spins, when he's told to pound up the middle he picks a hole and runs HARD. Against a stout Cowboys Defensive line, he was consistently running full speed ahead into the line with low pad level and gaining 3-4 yds a pop. To me, thats the most encouraging thing about McCoy this season. He hasn't been relying on his moves and dancing in the backfield. I'm loathe to predict anyone to be a top 5 fantasy player midway through their rookie season, but McCoy has all the tools and a great offense to operate in. He might not get the volume the touches that Westbrook got, but having Desean, Maclin, and Celek opening up the field for him can only help. Many people on this site predicted that in the 2-4 games that Westbrook was garunteed to miss McCoy would be a bonafide fantasy starter. He has not disappointed yet. I think if they do hand him the reigns next season he's easily a top 20 back and could threaten the top 10.
I've had Jennings outside of my top 10 for a couple of weeks now, though I might be biased. I was never really that high on him to begin with, but his production eventually became too much to ignore, so I've sort of been looking for reasons to knock him down.
"Mediocre performance by Rodgers"?? Before yesterday's game he had the highest QB Rating in the NFL. Even after it, he still is FOURTH. I agree with you that there are problems in Green Bay, but I would hardly consider Rodgers one of them. It's incredible considering that this is only his second year starting. Especially considering the state of the offensive line. And I do mean offensive.
Thanks for your thoughts on Moss. I offered a trade up for Moss before I asked that question and was curious...I haven't been able to watch Crabtree yet, but I'm curious as to why everyone keeps putting Nicks above Maclin? People keep pimping Nicks, and I think he's good, but I don't see where he's shown anything to put him over Maclin or Britt. I'm not putting Maclin above DeSean, because DeSean has actually proven he can play, but Nicks has not shown anything IMO.SSOG said:
I'm hoping that the next 8 weeks will separate the 3 players, because right now all 3 show big potential but it is inconsistently. I read a quote by one of the Eagles staff that they had Maclin as the #1 WR in the draft & thought he was a steal. Add in that Jackson just seems better suited as the big play WR 1b type, I hoped Maclin may turn into the PPR guy. Considering that it was thought that he may take awhile to develop & I'm pretty happy with where he is. At the moment I do like Nicks better, but there is concern with the logjam at Wr & I've never been sold that the Giants are at their best with Manning passing. Are there enough balls for Nicks, Smith & Manningham? Love Crabtree but it is a conservative run first offense. Best case would be they decide to align the system to Alex Smith's strengths & go to a spread type system. If I could get 2 solid #15-20 type WRs with upside, for about 4% of my salary, I'd be pretty happy.
I bought Jennings a few weeks ago. Thought I was buying low. Not sure what the issue is. I think he is talented and is a fantasy WR1. Though not top 5 dynasty WR1 like some thought at the beginning of the season. I wouldn't be surprised if he has some nagging injury. I still think he's worth holding on to in dynasty.Devil in the Detail said:
Yeah, I'm not even basing my question on situation. I'm not a college guy, but I've been relatively successful at identifying NFL talent, and to this point, I haven't seen much from Nicks to prove that he's better than Maclin. I'm not putting one over the other, but I just see a lot of people dismissing Maclin like he's a red-headed step child. Nicks was behind Tate in the NFL scouts eyes for the longest time.... just saying.
I'm putting Nicks above Maclin because I've really been impressed by Nicks and think he's a future stud.
So? I like Tate a lot, too.
I think that's pretty short-sighted. He doesn't need to be special to win that job. The (possible) return of Jones for another season isn't a direct indictment of Greene like you're suggesting. Did Willie Parker keep Rashard Mendenhall on the bench this season? Did Willis McGahee keep Ray Rice on the bench this season? I don't think Thomas Jones tells us anything about Shonn Greene.
Not saying that you are referencing any thread that I have mentioned this in- but it was a Bill James theory in baseball. In the 80's/90's there was question about whether players like Ozzie Smith would have value once they lost a step. James asserted, as you suggested, that they actually aged much better than slower, savvy players- who becasme useless once they lost a baseline of required athleticism.I think the same definitely applies to rb's wr's and TE's (CB's can move to safety, outside backers can move inside, inside backers can move to running downs). I am a big believer that big power backs, physical slower wr's and TE's tend to just drive off a cliff once they lose a step.SSOG said:
There is a slight difference here though. Parker and McGahee averaged under 4.0 ypc carry in 2008- so the writing was on the wall that they would be replaced if they did not improve. Jones averaged 4.5 ypc on almost 300 carries in 2008 and is averaging 4.7 this year, while carrying the ball at a similar pace. Jones won't be there forever, but he could present a small roadblock in the short -to -middle term.
In a sense you've just made a great argument in favor of Greene. Thomas Jones is playing great. If it ain't broke, why fix it? You can't draw any meaningful conclusions about an organization's opinion of a player simply because they're reluctant to promote him ahead of someone who's producing at a Pro Bowl level. It means nothing.
Again, I'm not saying Jones is telling me something about Greene, I'm saying that Jones is reaffirming something that I already believed about Greene.If I didn't like Greene in the first place, do you think the fact that the team is unwilling to give him the reigns should be viewed as a reason to move him up my rankings?
No, there is no strong reason to move him up or down.
As a Mendenhall owner I was pleased but still see room for improvement!He ran out of bounds when he shouldn't have.He still spins too much and that may have been a fumble in the redzone near the end of the game. As I said before the season, I think it's mental mistakes and he'll overcome those with good coaching.On the other hand, Where the heck is Moreno?
Bob McGinn a great writer that covers the Packers recently had a secondary coach review the game tape on Greg Jennings. The coach viewed every play of the 2nd Packers vs Vikings game and gave McGinn his review.The basics: Jennings was shut out in the first half and had 7/81 in the second half.SSOG said:
Knuckleheads don't pop up when you're expecting it. They pop up at the most inopportune times. You can forgive and forget if you want to, but I don't value Marshall's total package that highly ... unless I'm playing in the Colorado penal league.
no and no
Eight days a week. Go for it.
Would SS nyg and Sproles be better or worse in general?
Well said.
Thanks, Kitrick. Outstanding post.