Dynasty Rankings (5 Viewers)

[belljr]

Here is a real head scratcher. In a PPR league where you start 3 WR's, I've always said that Wr was more important than RB - IMO. Thus my RB's were always weak and I would get bye with my WR's. Well trade deadline is here and deals are looking to be made.

I have the chance to upgrade my RB's with SJAX and getting Hakeen Nicks. Leaving me with ROnnie Brown and Thomas Jones, SJAX, Willie Parker - then my flyers of B Scott, Rankin, Jennings

However I then downgrade my Wr's by moving AJ - leaving me with Boldin, Welker, Housh, Nicks, Clayton

Do you trade AJ, Sproles for Sjax , Nicks?

Yes I'm looking for advice on the trade but do others value WR's more than RB's in this format? Am I overvaluing AJ in this format thinking I 'd rather hold then get a productive RB?

What a mess.

Oh I love this thread.

 

[Tau837]

Irvin was a great WR, but he was 6'2", 207 lbs, and ran the 40 in over 4.5 seconds.

There is a much smaller difference between 4.45 and 4.55 than between 4.45 and track speed. VJax doesn't have track speed. He has great speed for a 6'5" guy. Please show me clips of VJax outrunning corners on fly routes.

As I just posted, Jackson ran a 4.38 at his combine. And at that combine, he weighed 241... now he is listed at 230. I think there is a decent chance that he is faster today than he was at that combine. And he had a 39" vertical at that combine. I assume both Jackson's 40 and vertical are much better than Irvin's... then consider he's taller and stronger/bigger on top of that.And, finally, while not necessarily a great measure of intelligence, Jackson scored a 33 on the Wonderlic. I don't know what Irvin scored, but I've never thought of him as a particularly bright guy.

 

[thecardiackid]

Brandon Marshall with 11 catches and a 112 yards in a game that Orton didn't play well seems to be securing his old spot. He isn't going to score as much because the team doesn't throw it as deep as they did with Cutler, but he seems like a top end WR2 now. If McDaniel's tough love ends his knucklehead factor then the drop from WR1 production to solid WR2 may be worth it.

You can forgive and forget if you want to, but I don't value Marshall's total package that highly ... unless I'm playing in the Colorado penal league.

I can't believe this nugget wasn't shown the love it deserves... lol FnL... that's almost sig worthy.

 

[basher]

Irvin was a great WR, but he was 6'2", 207 lbs, and ran the 40 in over 4.5 seconds.

There is a much smaller difference between 4.45 and 4.55 than between 4.45 and track speed. VJax doesn't have track speed. He has great speed for a 6'5" guy. Please show me clips of VJax outrunning corners on fly routes.

As I just posted, Jackson ran a 4.38 at his combine. And at that combine, he weighed 241... now he is listed at 230. I think there is a decent chance that he is faster today than he was at that combine. And he had a 39" vertical at that combine. I assume both Jackson's 40 and vertical are much better than Irvin's... then consider he's taller and stronger/bigger on top of that.And, finally, while not necessarily a great measure of intelligence, Jackson scored a 33 on the Wonderlic. I don't know what Irvin scored, but I've never thought of him as a particularly bright guy.

I believe people overreact to the Moss comparison mostly because Jackson took more time to develop then Moss did. As if the fact that Moss hit the ground running and hasn't stopped means that Jackson is not on his physical level and production level. Moss coming out the way he did was a rarity for his position but people should not let that blind them to players who have similar abilities.

 

[hostile]

LenDale White.

Since his value is very low right now, I was mulling over his acquisition as a RB3/4, but his success will really depend on where he lands in FA. However, I cannot think of a team he could sign with where he becomes a starter, or even fantasy-relevant enough to be a RB2/3. Here's my list of teams I think he could go to:

Cle: JLew is done, and White could fill the same roll, but with fresher legs
Was: Is Portis done?
Phi: I think Weaver is already the complementary RB to McCoy if Westy is toast
Hou: They chased Benson in the off season, and Kubiak has shown no loyalty to anyone
GB: Bjax and company are not exactly demanding field time or pushing Grant
KC: I dont think he fits Haley's system
Chi: KJ is so unfortunately injury-prone, it isnt even funny anymore
Sea: I dont think White would be a good WC offense RB, but Jones alone hasnt been the answerWhat are the collective dynasty minds thinking about White for next year?

 

[thriftyrocker]

There is a much smaller difference between 4.45 and 4.55 than between 4.45 and track speed. VJax doesn't have track speed. He has great speed for a 6'5" guy. Please show me clips of VJax outrunning corners on fly routes.

As I just posted, Jackson ran a 4.38 at his combine. And at that combine, he weighed 241... now he is listed at 230. I think there is a decent chance that he is faster today than he was at that combine. And he had a 39" vertical at that combine. I assume both Jackson's 40 and vertical are much better than Irvin's... then consider he's taller and stronger/bigger on top of that.And, finally, while not necessarily a great measure of intelligence, Jackson scored a 33 on the Wonderlic. I don't know what Irvin scored, but I've never thought of him as a particularly bright guy.

Not trying to be a stickler, but he ran a 4.46 at the combine. You are quoting the Wikipedia page, but the Wikipedia quote doesn't mention the source of the 40 time. In fact, it admits the 40 time is not from the combine (no asterisk). Google isn't showing me any other mention of a sub-4.4 40. Moss' college 40 time is 4.25. And he was probably half-assing it. If you really want to compare against Irvin hardcore, you gotta adjust for 20 years ago. The comparison isn't fair to Irvin either, because he used his size relative to the CB to be an elite possession receiver. Aside from one or two drives per month, VJax hasn't done that yet.

 

[thevidon]

LenDale White.

Since his value is very low right now, I was mulling over his acquisition as a RB3/4, but his success will really depend on where he lands in FA. However, I cannot think of a team he could sign with where he becomes a starter, or even fantasy-relevant enough to be a RB2/3. Here's my list of teams I think he could go to:



Phi: I think Weaver is already the complementary RB to McCoy if Westy is toast

Hou: They chased Benson in the off season, and Kubiak has shown no loyalty to anyone

KC: I dont think he fits Haley's system What are the collective dynasty minds thinking about White for next year?

I like these options, especially Philly. There has been a void for the Eagles in picking up short yardage, and at the goal line which I think he would fill nicely. The texans might like him as more of a full time ballcarrier, which would be a nice boost to his value. It would allow them to swap Slaton in as strictly a third down back, which is where he really belongs.

 

[SSOG]

Not trying to be a stickler, but he ran a 4.46 at the combine. You are quoting the Wikipedia page, but the Wikipedia quote doesn't mention the source of the 40 time. In fact, it admits the 40 time is not from the combine (no asterisk). Google isn't showing me any other mention of a sub-4.4 40. Moss' college 40 time is 4.25. And he was probably half-assing it. If you really want to compare against Irvin hardcore, you gotta adjust for 20 years ago. The comparison isn't fair to Irvin either, because he used his size relative to the CB to be an elite possession receiver. Aside from one or two drives per month, VJax hasn't done that yet.

Once again, it was never meant to be a comparison of production or talent, simply a comparison of skillsets. I'm talking about the entire package that VJax brings to the table.If I were going to divide NFL WRs into two very broad, super-generalized categories based on their playstyle, I'd divide them into "big strong chain-movers who excel in traffic" and "small fast defense-stretchers who excel in space". Larry Fitzgerald is the posterchild for the chain-movers. Desean Jackson is king defense-stretcher. You also get some lesser versions of each type, too- Jerricho Cotchery is a chain-mover, Santana Moss is a defense-stretcher. This doesn't mean that I think that Jerricho Cotchery is the next Larry Fitzgerald, it just means that I'd put them in a similar bucket in terms of how they get their numbers on the field.Now, that brings us to the conundrum that is Vincent Jackson. Which bucket does he go in? He stretches the defense probably better than anyone but Desean Jackson right now... but he's also been unstoppable in congested spaces and traffic, as evidenced by his unimpeachable red zone numbers over the last two years. I really couldn't categorize him as one or the other, as neither skillset seems dominant over the other. Instead, he belongs in the "both" bucket, a very uncommon bucket with very few residents, the most notable of whom is Randy Moss. Which was the whole basis for the comparison in the first place. If you'd prefer a less controversial comparison, then I could just as easily call him a rich man's Javon Walker.

 

[BeTheMatch]

A flyer to be aware of: WR Brandon Gibson.Rookie WR was buried on the Eagles depth chart, but performed so well in the pre-season that Philly didn't try to move him to the practice squad but instead carried an extra WR going into the season.Now...he's been traded to St. Louis. Obviously, his redraft value is still very low, but in deep roster dynasties, this kid is worth a looooong look. I was surprised to find him not even on F&L's rankings list. I'd stick him somewhere in tier 7 right now. He seems to have some talent, and he'll soon have opportunity.

AHHHHHHEeeeeemmmmmmLook's like he'll be starting the rest of the season after a good game last week in his first significant action as a Ram.In deep leagues, he's more then worth a flyer.

Good call. Picked him up in a couple leagues thanks to your orignal post!

 

[thriftyrocker]

If you'd prefer a less controversial comparison, then I could just as easily call him a rich man's Javon Walker.

A 26-year old VJax might be the closest thing we'll see to a 26-year old Javon Walker in terms of measurables and play style. Try as I might, Walker is really the only comp I can find for his all-around skillset. If he ever develops Walker's killer instinct, the rest of the NFL had better be afraid.

 

[Tau837]

There is a much smaller difference between 4.45 and 4.55 than between 4.45 and track speed. VJax doesn't have track speed. He has great speed for a 6'5" guy. Please show me clips of VJax outrunning corners on fly routes.

As I just posted, Jackson ran a 4.38 at his combine. And at that combine, he weighed 241... now he is listed at 230. I think there is a decent chance that he is faster today than he was at that combine. And he had a 39" vertical at that combine. I assume both Jackson's 40 and vertical are much better than Irvin's... then consider he's taller and stronger/bigger on top of that.And, finally, while not necessarily a great measure of intelligence, Jackson scored a 33 on the Wonderlic. I don't know what Irvin scored, but I've never thought of him as a particularly bright guy.

Not trying to be a stickler, but he ran a 4.46 at the combine. You are quoting the Wikipedia page, but the Wikipedia quote doesn't mention the source of the 40 time. In fact, it admits the 40 time is not from the combine (no asterisk). Google isn't showing me any other mention of a sub-4.4 40. Moss' college 40 time is 4.25. And he was probably half-assing it. If you really want to compare against Irvin hardcore, you gotta adjust for 20 years ago. The comparison isn't fair to Irvin either, because he used his size relative to the CB to be an elite possession receiver. Aside from one or two drives per month, VJax hasn't done that yet.

OK, I stand corrected on his 40 time, since the source I was using was apparently wrong, but everything else I posted holds. I also think Jackson has improved his speed since that combine time, given he has dropped some weight. I stand by my take that he is a much more physically talented player than Irvin, who IMO is a poor comparison.Also, you mentioned that you'd like to see Jackson flying by corners on deep routes... as a Chargers fan, I've seen him outrun corners numerous times. He's definitely not as fast as Moss, but he's still fast.No idea what you are talking about with regard to Jackson not using his size to be a possession receiver. Jackson is a great target on short, intermediate, deep, and red zone routes, and a big reason in every case is the combination of his size, jumping ability, and great hands. It just so happens that the Chargers have Gates and talented receiving RBs, so they don't tend to use Jackson as often on possession routes as they might otherwise.

 

[thriftyrocker]

He's definitely not as fast as Moss, but he's still fast.

We agree here.

No idea what you are talking about with regard to Jackson not using his size to be a possession receiver.

I said "elite possessions receiver." We gotta give Irvin his props here. In his prime he was a better possession receiver than anyone in today's NFL.VJax has shown glimpses like this:

# 1-10-SD 22 (13:34) 21-L.Tomlinson left tackle to SD 22 for no gain (77-M.Shaughnessy).

# 2-10-SD 22 (12:55) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 83-V.Jackson to SD 25 for 3 yards (21-N.Asomugha).

# 3-7-SD 25 (12:15) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep left to 83-V.Jackson to SD 45 for 20 yards (31-H.Eugene, 26-S.Routt).

# 1-10-SD 45 (11:35) 43-D.Sproles left end pushed ob at OAK 44 for 11 yards (21-N.Asomugha).

# 1-10-OAK 44 (11:05) 21-L.Tomlinson up the middle to OAK 43 for 1 yard (77-M.Shaughnessy).

# 2-9-OAK 43 (10:23) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 83-V.Jackson to OAK 29 for 14 yards (37-C.Johnson).

# 1-10-OAK 29 (9:38) 21-L.Tomlinson up the middle to OAK 23 for 6 yards (93-T.Kelly, 33-T.Branch).

# 2-4-OAK 23 (8:57) 21-L.Tomlinson right end to OAK 28 for -5 yards (77-M.Shaughnessy).

# 3-9-OAK 28 (8:12) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 83-V.Jackson to OAK 14 for 14 yards (26-S.Routt).

# 1-10-OAK 14 (7:34) 43-D.Sproles up the middle to OAK 13 for 1 yard (53-T.Howard, 52-K.Morrison).

# 2-9-OAK 13 (6:57) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 11-L.Naanee to OAK 8 for 5 yards (53-T.Howard).

# 3-4-OAK 8 (6:13) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 83-V.Jackson for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

But he's not doing it regularly. If we're going to talk about SSOG's super rarified air of being a deep threat and a possession guy, there's a guy who caught 40 yard and 75 yard deep passes last week who is many times the possession receiver that VJax is.

 

[Tau837]

He's definitely not as fast as Moss, but he's still fast.

We agree here.

No idea what you are talking about with regard to Jackson not using his size to be a possession receiver.

I said "elite possessions receiver." We gotta give Irvin his props here. In his prime he was a better possession receiver than anyone in today's NFL.VJax has shown glimpses like this:

# 1-10-SD 22 (13:34) 21-L.Tomlinson left tackle to SD 22 for no gain (77-M.Shaughnessy).

# 2-10-SD 22 (12:55) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 83-V.Jackson to SD 25 for 3 yards (21-N.Asomugha).

# 3-7-SD 25 (12:15) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep left to 83-V.Jackson to SD 45 for 20 yards (31-H.Eugene, 26-S.Routt).

# 1-10-SD 45 (11:35) 43-D.Sproles left end pushed ob at OAK 44 for 11 yards (21-N.Asomugha).

# 1-10-OAK 44 (11:05) 21-L.Tomlinson up the middle to OAK 43 for 1 yard (77-M.Shaughnessy).

# 2-9-OAK 43 (10:23) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 83-V.Jackson to OAK 29 for 14 yards (37-C.Johnson).

# 1-10-OAK 29 (9:38) 21-L.Tomlinson up the middle to OAK 23 for 6 yards (93-T.Kelly, 33-T.Branch).

# 2-4-OAK 23 (8:57) 21-L.Tomlinson right end to OAK 28 for -5 yards (77-M.Shaughnessy).

# 3-9-OAK 28 (8:12) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 83-V.Jackson to OAK 14 for 14 yards (26-S.Routt).

# 1-10-OAK 14 (7:34) 43-D.Sproles up the middle to OAK 13 for 1 yard (53-T.Howard, 52-K.Morrison).

# 2-9-OAK 13 (6:57) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 11-L.Naanee to OAK 8 for 5 yards (53-T.Howard).

# 3-4-OAK 8 (6:13) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 83-V.Jackson for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

But he's not doing it regularly. If we're going to talk about SSOG's super rarified air of being a deep threat and a possession guy, there's a guy who caught 40 yard and 75 yard deep passes last week who is many times the possession receiver that VJax is.

Jackson has 43 receptions on the season, tied for 24th in the league. 88.4% of those catches have gone for first downs... among players with 13 or more receptions on the season, only Santonio Holmes (90.7% on 43 receptions) has a higher percentage. Jackson is #5 in the league with 38 first down catches.Last season, Jackson was #14 in the league with 52 first down catches and #1 in percentage of catches that went for first downs (among those with 11 or more catches), despite being #41 in receptions with 59.

It's not exactly the same as being a possession receiver, per se, but IMO it is still very impressive and shows that he moves the chains as well as anyone. As SSOG indicated, Jackson is really a hybrid... he is good at everything. And the fact is that the Chargers have other good possession options in Gates, Naanee, and their RBs, whereas they only have one other deep threat (Floyd), so he isn't used as much as a possession option as he could be.

 

[editor47]

did the unthinkable in my keeper league. traded ADP. never thought i'd do it, but i got the guy to give me VJax and MJD .. i hate trading when i'm in 1st place because i feel like i'm jinxing my team, but ... i had to do this.

 

[hostile]

did the unthinkable in my keeper league. traded ADP. never thought i'd do it, but i got the guy to give me VJax and MJD .. i hate trading when i'm in 1st place because i feel like i'm jinxing my team, but ... i had to do this.

I would do that trade in a heartbeat, especially if I was lacking a true WR1.

 

[editor47]

did the unthinkable in my keeper league. traded ADP. never thought i'd do it, but i got the guy to give me VJax and MJD .. i hate trading when i'm in 1st place because i feel like i'm jinxing my team, but ... i had to do this.

I would do that trade in a heartbeat, especially if I was lacking a true WR1.

i wasn't. i have MSW, Colston and Anquan. RBs are now MJD, CJ, Turner and PT.

 

[SSOG]

If you'd prefer a less controversial comparison, then I could just as easily call him a rich man's Javon Walker.

A 26-year old VJax might be the closest thing we'll see to a 26-year old Javon Walker in terms of measurables and play style. Try as I might, Walker is really the only comp I can find for his all-around skillset. If he ever develops Walker's killer instinct, the rest of the NFL had better be afraid.

No, you've got the order mixed up. A 26-year old Javon Walker might be the closest thing we'll see to a 26-year old VJax in terms of measurables and play style. Try as I might, VJax is really the only comp I can find for his all-around skillset. If he ever develops VJax's killer instinct, the rest of the NFL had better be afraid.People are forgetting just how good Javon Walker was before he shredded his knee and became a basket case. He's really the new David Boston- unbelievable talent who suddenly imploded and became a shell of his former self. From 2004-2006, there were very few talents in the league as dynamic as Walker, and the only receiver who matched his red zone numbers was Fitzgerald.

did the unthinkable in my keeper league. traded ADP. never thought i'd do it, but i got the guy to give me VJax and MJD .. i hate trading when i'm in 1st place because i feel like i'm jinxing my team, but ... i had to do this.

I'll let you all in on a little secret. Well, okay, it's not much of a secret (I posted it several times during the offseason)... but I prefer MJD to ADP in dynasty, straight up. I also think that MJD is the most talented RB in the league today.

 

[editor47]

If you'd prefer a less controversial comparison, then I could just as easily call him a rich man's Javon Walker.

A 26-year old VJax might be the closest thing we'll see to a 26-year old Javon Walker in terms of measurables and play style. Try as I might, Walker is really the only comp I can find for his all-around skillset. If he ever develops Walker's killer instinct, the rest of the NFL had better be afraid.

No, you've got the order mixed up. A 26-year old Javon Walker might be the closest thing we'll see to a 26-year old VJax in terms of measurables and play style. Try as I might, VJax is really the only comp I can find for his all-around skillset. If he ever develops VJax's killer instinct, the rest of the NFL had better be afraid.People are forgetting just how good Javon Walker was before he shredded his knee and became a basket case. He's really the new David Boston- unbelievable talent who suddenly imploded and became a shell of his former self. From 2004-2006, there were very few talents in the league as dynamic as Walker, and the only receiver who matched his red zone numbers was Fitzgerald.

did the unthinkable in my keeper league. traded ADP. never thought i'd do it, but i got the guy to give me VJax and MJD .. i hate trading when i'm in 1st place because i feel like i'm jinxing my team, but ... i had to do this.

I'll let you all in on a little secret. Well, okay, it's not much of a secret (I posted it several times during the offseason)... but I prefer MJD to ADP in dynasty, straight up. I also think that MJD is the most talented RB in the league today.

yeah SSOG. it's no secret you would have done that deal and been thrilled. but there's a little separation anxiety in trading a guy like AP. i mean, they're the same age, but i see AP having an extra year or two in him when MJD is done. Getting VJ, thanks to your posts here, will be the difference in the deal. Either he becomes elite or he doesn't. Hopefully you are right about him.

 

[thatguy]

If you'd prefer a less controversial comparison, then I could just as easily call him a rich man's Javon Walker.

A 26-year old VJax might be the closest thing we'll see to a 26-year old Javon Walker in terms of measurables and play style. Try as I might, Walker is really the only comp I can find for his all-around skillset. If he ever develops Walker's killer instinct, the rest of the NFL had better be afraid.

No, you've got the order mixed up. A 26-year old Javon Walker might be the closest thing we'll see to a 26-year old VJax in terms of measurables and play style. Try as I might, VJax is really the only comp I can find for his all-around skillset. If he ever develops VJax's killer instinct, the rest of the NFL had better be afraid.People are forgetting just how good Javon Walker was before he shredded his knee and became a basket case. He's really the new David Boston- unbelievable talent who suddenly imploded and became a shell of his former self. From 2004-2006, there were very few talents in the league as dynamic as Walker, and the only receiver who matched his red zone numbers was Fitzgerald.

did the unthinkable in my keeper league. traded ADP. never thought i'd do it, but i got the guy to give me VJax and MJD .. i hate trading when i'm in 1st place because i feel like i'm jinxing my team, but ... i had to do this.

I'll let you all in on a little secret. Well, okay, it's not much of a secret (I posted it several times during the offseason)... but I prefer MJD to ADP in dynasty, straight up. I also think that MJD is the most talented RB in the league today.

yeah SSOG. it's no secret you would have done that deal and been thrilled. but there's a little separation anxiety in trading a guy like AP. i mean, they're the same age, but i see AP having an extra year or two in him when MJD is done. Getting VJ, thanks to your posts here, will be the difference in the deal. Either he becomes elite or he doesn't. Hopefully you are right about him.

I think it was a great deal for you, but I understand what you mean by separation anxiety. I own ADP in my dynasty league, and I love owning ADP - I don't think there is another player that I've ever owned that I enjoyed owning as much (Fitz is close, as are Patrick Willis and Jared Allen on the defensive side). And because of that, I don't know that I'd make that trade were I in your shoes. But I do know that I would be stupid not to. IMO, you did the smart thing, and I suspect in time you'll grow just as fond of MJD as you have grown of ADP, to the point where the thought of trading MJD will be just as painful as was the thought of trading ADP.I also think that MJD will probably have a longer shelf life than ADP.

 

[WFR]

What are the thoughts on Danny Ware going forward?

I did not get to see him in preseason but remember some chatter about him before the season started.

With Bradshaw being an injury waiting on a place to happen is he worth a stash spot on a dynasty roster?

From rotoworld today:

The Giants appear to be intent on using Danny Ware more going forward, which could limit Ahmad Bradshaw's role on offense.

Ware is expected to take over as New York's full-time back on third downs, which had previously involved Bradshaw. Brandon Jacobs has averaged 5.35 yards per touch in the Giants' last four games, so his role is unlikely to decrease. The team may be growing concerned with Bradshaw's partially cracked foot. Ware is also considered the club's best back in blitz pickup

 

[wasted space 25]

SSOG, would you trade AP and Crabtree for J Stew, B Marshall and Simms-Walker? Dynasty

My team

Rogers, Big Ben

AP, MJD, Beenie, DMC, Forsett, Scott

Jennings, Bowe, Crabtree, Nicks, Harvin, Shillins, M. Walker

Keller, Finley

 

[thatguy]

SSOG, would you trade AP and Crabtree for J Stew, B Marshall and Simms-Walker? DynastyMy teamRogers, Big BenAP, MJD, Beenie, DMC, Forsett, ScottJennings, Bowe, Crabtree, Nicks, Harvin, Shillins, M. WalkerKeller, Finley

I know you're not asking me, but I wouldn't.

 

[Canadian Content]

SSOG, would you trade AP and Crabtree for J Stew, B Marshall and Simms-Walker? DynastyMy teamRogers, Big BenAP, MJD, Beenie, DMC, Forsett, ScottJennings, Bowe, Crabtree, Nicks, Harvin, Shillins, M. WalkerKeller, Finley

I know you're not asking me, but I wouldn't.

Nor is he asking me but I would of rejected it without so much as a second thought.

 

[DoubleG]

SSOG, would you trade AP and Crabtree for J Stew, B Marshall and Simms-Walker? DynastyMy teamRogers, Big BenAP, MJD, Beenie, DMC, Forsett, ScottJennings, Bowe, Crabtree, Nicks, Harvin, Shillins, M. WalkerKeller, Finley

I know you're not asking me, but I wouldn't.

Nor is he asking me but I would of rejected it without so much as a second thought.

I;m not SSOG either, but I do don't like this deal at all. The only caveat is that if you're looking for WRs to win this year - but I'd think you could do much better than Marshall and MSW (both fairly inconsistant) in a dynatsy league offering ADP.

 

[SSOG]

SSOG, would you trade AP and Crabtree for J Stew, B Marshall and Simms-Walker? DynastyMy teamRogers, Big BenAP, MJD, Beenie, DMC, Forsett, ScottJennings, Bowe, Crabtree, Nicks, Harvin, Shillins, M. WalkerKeller, Finley

I'll go ahead and make it unanimous. No way.

 

[gheemony]

For those looking for value comparisons and strategy/theory on winning now, I just made this trade (I think) in a contract/keeper league:

Boldin, 3 yrs, ~12% cap

McFadden 2 yrs, ~8% cap

2010 2nd rounder (#13-018)

for

Randy Moss, 1 yr

Witten, 1 yr

My lineup is:

QB: Ben/McNabb

RB: AP

RB/WR: MJD

WR: Moss

WR: Colston

WR/TE: Jennings/Holmes/Witten

TE: Gates/Witten

Going for the championship - my 4th in 8th years. Chasing a team with Manning, Wayne, CJ, Rice, DWill, SSmith North, Drive, Celek. Certainly hope CJ busts more than booms and Moss puts me over the top.

 

[footballguy#1]

Hilliard and Sheets are getting some publicity, what are your thoughts on both of them?

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Just posted this in gianmarco's Brian Brohm thread:

I picked him up in both of my Dynasty leagues today. His problem at the NFL level has mostly been one of confidence, not talent. This is exactly the kind of low-cost, high-reward move that a franchise like the Bills needs to take.Brohm will need time to learn the Bills' offense, but I would bet he sees game action by the end of the season. When you bench Trent Edwards for Ryan Fitzpatrick that means that you have no solution at QB for the final seven games of the season. I could see Brohm starting at least Weeks 16 & 17. If he shows anything at all, he would enter the offseason as the starter. From there, who knows?

Of course, the primary reason I grabbed him in the FB Guys Dynasty Thread league is because my QBs are Kurt Warner, Brett Favre, and Trent Edwards. He's a better fit for my roster than Edwards was.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

Just posted this in gianmarco's Brian Brohm thread:

I picked him up in both of my Dynasty leagues today. His problem at the NFL level has mostly been one of confidence, not talent. This is exactly the kind of low-cost, high-reward move that a franchise like the Bills needs to take.Brohm will need time to learn the Bills' offense, but I would bet he sees game action by the end of the season. When you bench Trent Edwards for Ryan Fitzpatrick that means that you have no solution at QB for the final seven games of the season. I could see Brohm starting at least Weeks 16 & 17. If he shows anything at all, he would enter the offseason as the starter. From there, who knows?

Of course, the primary reason I grabbed him in the FB Guys Dynasty Thread league is because my QBs are Kurt Warner, Brett Favre, and Trent Edwards. He's a better fit for my roster than Edwards was.

Confidence was clearly a problem for Brohm. I can only remember one throw that he made that looked like a pro QB. I did watch most of his 104 preseason attempts too. 58/104 for 455 yards, 0 TDs 4 INTs. 4.375 YPA in the preseason with Jordy Nelson and James Jones as his WRs. Mike McCarthy is supposed to be a QB guru as well and the Packers decided to waive a 2nd round draft choice. I can't remember the last time that happened in GB this early if ever. My thought is while they did match Buffalo's offer yesterday, if he was really progressing that much, they would have done it much sooner. Buffalo would be crazy to go into 2010 without drafting a QB high or signing a significant one in FA. If you can roll over 24 guys in your dynasty league into next season, then yeah, he's worth a flier. I guess it's possible he could find a career resurgence in Buffalo.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Just posted this in gianmarco's Brian Brohm thread:

I picked him up in both of my Dynasty leagues today. His problem at the NFL level has mostly been one of confidence, not talent. This is exactly the kind of low-cost, high-reward move that a franchise like the Bills needs to take.Brohm will need time to learn the Bills' offense, but I would bet he sees game action by the end of the season. When you bench Trent Edwards for Ryan Fitzpatrick that means that you have no solution at QB for the final seven games of the season. I could see Brohm starting at least Weeks 16 & 17. If he shows anything at all, he would enter the offseason as the starter. From there, who knows?

Of course, the primary reason I grabbed him in the FB Guys Dynasty Thread league is because my QBs are Kurt Warner, Brett Favre, and Trent Edwards. He's a better fit for my roster than Edwards was.

Confidence was clearly a problem for Brohm. I can only remember one throw that he made that looked like a pro QB. I did watch most of his 104 preseason attempts too. 58/104 for 455 yards, 0 TDs 4 INTs. 4.375 YPA in the preseason with Jordy Nelson and James Jones as his WRs. Mike McCarthy is supposed to be a QB guru as well and the Packers decided to waive a 2nd round draft choice. I can't remember the last time that happened in GB this early if ever. My thought is while they did match Buffalo's offer yesterday, if he was really progressing that much, they would have done it much sooner. Buffalo would be crazy to go into 2010 without drafting a QB high or signing a significant one in FA. If you can roll over 24 guys in your dynasty league into next season, then yeah, he's worth a flier. I guess it's possible he could find a career resurgence in Buffalo.

QB gurus are like pitching coaches: what clicks with one may not click with another. Like I said, I think Brohm is likely to see the field in December. If he falls on his face, dump him. If not, maybe he'll have a Shanahan offense next season.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Just posted this in gianmarco's Brian Brohm thread:

I picked him up in both of my Dynasty leagues today. His problem at the NFL level has mostly been one of confidence, not talent. This is exactly the kind of low-cost, high-reward move that a franchise like the Bills needs to take.Brohm will need time to learn the Bills' offense, but I would bet he sees game action by the end of the season. When you bench Trent Edwards for Ryan Fitzpatrick that means that you have no solution at QB for the final seven games of the season. I could see Brohm starting at least Weeks 16 & 17. If he shows anything at all, he would enter the offseason as the starter. From there, who knows?

Of course, the primary reason I grabbed him in the FB Guys Dynasty Thread league is because my QBs are Kurt Warner, Brett Favre, and Trent Edwards. He's a better fit for my roster than Edwards was.

Confidence was clearly a problem for Brohm. I can only remember one throw that he made that looked like a pro QB. I did watch most of his 104 preseason attempts too. 58/104 for 455 yards, 0 TDs 4 INTs. 4.375 YPA in the preseason with Jordy Nelson and James Jones as his WRs. Mike McCarthy is supposed to be a QB guru as well and the Packers decided to waive a 2nd round draft choice. I can't remember the last time that happened in GB this early if ever. My thought is while they did match Buffalo's offer yesterday, if he was really progressing that much, they would have done it much sooner. Buffalo would be crazy to go into 2010 without drafting a QB high or signing a significant one in FA. If you can roll over 24 guys in your dynasty league into next season, then yeah, he's worth a flier. I guess it's possible he could find a career resurgence in Buffalo.

QB gurus are like pitching coaches: what clicks with one may not click with another. Like I said, I think Brohm is likely to see the field in December. If he falls on his face, dump him. If not, maybe he'll have a Shanahan offense next season.

Does this make him a Tier 6 QB play given he'll probably get a chance this year? Got a couple Tier 7 guys as "sit and pray" plays. Dumped one for Arian Foster, and tempted to dump the other for Brohm.

 

[SSOG]

Just posted this in gianmarco's Brian Brohm thread:

I picked him up in both of my Dynasty leagues today. His problem at the NFL level has mostly been one of confidence, not talent. This is exactly the kind of low-cost, high-reward move that a franchise like the Bills needs to take.Brohm will need time to learn the Bills' offense, but I would bet he sees game action by the end of the season. When you bench Trent Edwards for Ryan Fitzpatrick that means that you have no solution at QB for the final seven games of the season. I could see Brohm starting at least Weeks 16 & 17. If he shows anything at all, he would enter the offseason as the starter. From there, who knows?

Of course, the primary reason I grabbed him in the FB Guys Dynasty Thread league is because my QBs are Kurt Warner, Brett Favre, and Trent Edwards. He's a better fit for my roster than Edwards was.

Thanks for the heads up, F&L, I probably wouldn't have even noticed the move otherwise. I dumped Matt Moore for Brohm as my "pure speculation QB4" type. I've got a solid QB1 in Roethlisberger, a quality low-upside high-floor QB2 in Hasselbeck, and a solid prospect in Henne, so Brohm is strictly a "let's roll the dice and see what we've got a year from now" guy. At the end of the day, my league is deep and roster spots are cheap. I'd rather burn one on a former 2nd round draft pick with only Ryan Fitzpatrick ahead of him than a former undrafted free agent with Jake Delhomme ahead of him, especially since Delhomme is getting his stuff together again.

 

[valhallan]

I know some posters in here thought Trent Edwards had a bright future (EBF?), so what do you attribute this failure to? Did he not progress? Injuries? Simply a product of a bad o-line or coaching? Maybe there's something we can learn from his career arc.

 

[MrMarley]

Trying to gauge VJax's trade value in a keep-all year to year 12 team dynasty league, non PPR, only 2 WR positions, but 1 WR/RB flex.

Offered up Pierre Thomas and Ryan Grant for him, but the owner is holding out for ADP (no), SJax, DWill or Ray Rice. Are any of those last 3 worth VJax straight up? Current WR's are Andre Johnson, Steve Smith (CAR), and MSW.

 

[DoubleG]

Trying to gauge VJax's trade value in a keep-all year to year 12 team dynasty league, non PPR, only 2 WR positions, but 1 WR/RB flex.

Offered up Pierre Thomas and Ryan Grant for him, but the owner is holding out for ADP (no), SJax, DWill or Ray Rice. Are any of those last 3 worth VJax straight up? Current WR's are Andre Johnson, Steve Smith (CAR), and MSW.

Wow. Nice stable of RBs. I realize this question is for SSOG or F&L, but I'd probably be willing to part with DWill if the VJax owner would do it. Part of it depends on how many RBs you start. If it's 2 + the one flex, you'd still have ADP, SJax and Rice (plus your leftover RB for bye weeks). Then you starting WRs would be Andre Johnson and VJax. You could probably easily include either Grant or Thomas or add in one of your other WRs if he won't bite on DWill straight up (but he probably will).

 

[Fear & Loathing]

I know some posters in here thought Trent Edwards had a bright future (EBF?), so what do you attribute this failure to? Did he not progress? Injuries? Simply a product of a bad o-line or coaching? Maybe there's something we can learn from his career arc.

I think it's a mix of all of the above.Things we should have known going into the season:1. He lacks NFL starter arm strength.2. He's not nearly aggressive enough and settles for the check-down far too often.3. He's prone to injuries.Things we've discovered this season:1. No QB has a chance behind the Bills current O-Line.2. Edwards' confidence is shot, largely as a result of the poor O-Line.3. The lack of confidence has him checking down way more than any QB ever should.4. He still can't shake the injuries.5. The Bills coaching decisions were all over the map this season: first the no-huddle, then firing Schonert a few days before the start of the season, then scrapping the no-huddle less than half-way through the season.6. Due to all of the above, he has regressed instead of progressing.

 

[SSOG]

Trying to gauge VJax's trade value in a keep-all year to year 12 team dynasty league, non PPR, only 2 WR positions, but 1 WR/RB flex.

Offered up Pierre Thomas and Ryan Grant for him, but the owner is holding out for ADP (no), SJax, DWill or Ray Rice. Are any of those last 3 worth VJax straight up? Current WR's are Andre Johnson, Steve Smith (CAR), and MSW.

Whether they're worth VJax depends on a lot of things, but with your current RB corps, I'd say they're probably worth it for you. In your shoes, I would trade either Rice or DeAngelo for VJax... although do your due diligence, first. If you're going to be offering up Rice or DeAngelo, see if you can get Calvin or Fitzgerald first before "settling" for VJax. Maybe offer the Fitzgerald owner a package of DeAngelo + Grant, and if he doesn't bite then trade DeAngelo for VJax straight up.

 

[SSOG]

I know some posters in here thought Trent Edwards had a bright future (EBF?), so what do you attribute this failure to? Did he not progress? Injuries? Simply a product of a bad o-line or coaching? Maybe there's something we can learn from his career arc.

I think it's a mix of all of the above.Things we should have known going into the season:1. He lacks NFL starter arm strength.2. He's not nearly aggressive enough and settles for the check-down far too often.3. He's prone to injuries.Things we've discovered this season:1. No QB has a chance behind the Bills current O-Line.2. Edwards' confidence is shot, largely as a result of the poor O-Line.3. The lack of confidence has him checking down way more than any QB ever should.4. He still can't shake the injuries.5. The Bills coaching decisions were all over the map this season: first the no-huddle, then firing Schonert a few days before the start of the season, then scrapping the no-huddle less than half-way through the season.6. Due to all of the above, he has regressed instead of progressing.

I'll add one more item that we should have known before the season, and the biggest reason why I was never buying into Edwards- he didn't know how to get the ball in the hands of his playmakers. Sure, it's sort of an extension of #2, but the fact that he couldn't get the ball to Lee Evans was really troubling to me, and not just as an Evans owner. If he was going to succeed in the NFL, he'd have to rely on offensive players like Evans to carry him to some extent. You see the same thing from guys like Romo, Cutler, Brady, and Roethlisberger- they're most successful when they're letting their weapons be weapons and using them correctly. It's not like hitting Lee Evans is particularly hard- J.P. Losman and Ryan Fitzpatrick can do it, for pete's sake!In my mind, the inability to use Evans properly was a massive red flag and a reason why I never made a play to get Edwards in any league.

 

[BespokeJort]

In addition to the above, while Edwards always was touted as a smart QB, I think he might be a little TOO smart for his own good. To be an effective QB you are gonna have to take some risks (especially to get the ball to your playmakers, who are likely gonna be the focus of the defense). You can make the 'smart play' and not throw into double coverage at any point, but then you've effectively let the defense dictate exactly what you're doing (and that you're throwing it to secondary and tertiary guys).

I've seen a grand total of maybe 3 bills games he's QB'd though, so take that with as many grains of salt as you wish (although the point is the same; Edwards sucks. The question is only why)

 

[ckl81]

Great stuff in this thread---it's my daily required reading. Fantastic insight on players from some really knowledgeable people.

I have a question about Jonathan Stewart vs. DeAngelo Williams. From what I've read in this thread and seen in F&L's rankings, Stewart is looked upon very highly, despite being a backup. He's definitely produced a fair amount over his first 2 years in the league, particularly with scoring TDs, but something's been bothering me about his performance.

Last year, he averaged 4.5 ypc, and this year he's increased that to 4.8 ypc. Deangelo, behind the same line, averaged about 5.5 ypc last year, down to 5.1 ypc this year. Given that Deangelo's the workhorse back and sees more carries, shouldn't his ypc be lower? I know on F&L's rankings, Stewart is ranked 13th to DWill's 7th, but is that due to a strict talent comparison? I know that you can't put everything on ypc, but I feel that there's a pretty strong correlation between ypc and general talent/production in FF.

I guess what I'm asking is a little insight as to the talent level of Stewart. If he got the chance to be a feature back, who would he be comparable to? Steven Jackson? Ray Rice? Ronnie Brown or Pierre Thomas? I'm talking about pure talent level, all else being equal. I'm assuming that most people think that DWill is the more talented back, if they were the same age.

Thanks in advance for any insight.

 

[SSOG]

Great stuff in this thread---it's my daily required reading. Fantastic insight on players from some really knowledgeable people. I have a question about Jonathan Stewart vs. DeAngelo Williams. From what I've read in this thread and seen in F&L's rankings, Stewart is looked upon very highly, despite being a backup. He's definitely produced a fair amount over his first 2 years in the league, particularly with scoring TDs, but something's been bothering me about his performance.Last year, he averaged 4.5 ypc, and this year he's increased that to 4.8 ypc. Deangelo, behind the same line, averaged about 5.5 ypc last year, down to 5.1 ypc this year. Given that Deangelo's the workhorse back and sees more carries, shouldn't his ypc be lower? I know on F&L's rankings, Stewart is ranked 13th to DWill's 7th, but is that due to a strict talent comparison? I know that you can't put everything on ypc, but I feel that there's a pretty strong correlation between ypc and general talent/production in FF.I guess what I'm asking is a little insight as to the talent level of Stewart. If he got the chance to be a feature back, who would he be comparable to? Steven Jackson? Ray Rice? Ronnie Brown or Pierre Thomas? I'm talking about pure talent level, all else being equal. I'm assuming that most people think that DWill is the more talented back, if they were the same age.Thanks in advance for any insight.

It's hard to do a straight ypc comparison, because ypc isn't just team and player dependent, it's also SITUATION dependent.Imagine two hypothetical RBs. One RB averages 2 yards per carry on 3rd and 1, and averages 5 yards per carry on 1st and 10. The second RB averages 0 yards per carry on 3rd and 1, and 4 yards per carry on 1st and 10. The first RB has a better ypc in both situations, but if the second RB gets all of the first down carries and the first RB gets all of the third down carries, then the second RB will actually wind up with the higher overall ypc! This phenomenon (that a player can have a higher ypc in every single situation, but a lower overall ypc) is called "Simpson's Paradox", and is a very real effect that depresses the overall ypc of any RB who gets an inordinate about of red zone or short yardage carries.In addition to Simpson's Paradox, the ypc statistic always favors big-play RBs over consistent chain-movers. For instance, looking back at Denver, Tatum Bell always posted a sterling ypc (the best on the team in every season, iirc), despite the fact that he was viewed as mediocre and expendable. The reason was because he'd pad his total with a handful of huge runs. A guy who has 9 runs for 2 yards and a run for 32 yards is averaging 5.0 ypc, but a guy who runs for 4 yards half the time and 5 yards the other half is significantly more valuable.The final variable at play is where the runs are taking place. If a player only ever got the ball at the 1 yard line, the highest ypc he could possibly post would be 1.0 ypc. The closer to the end zone the runs are coming, the less potential there is for a long run that brings up the average ypc- after all, it's impossible to break an 80 yard run from midfield.Anyway, to see what's at play in Carolina, I did a bit of digging into splits. The data suggests that Stewart converts a higher percentage of short yardage carries, while Williams has a higher percentage of long runs, which seems to fit with my subjective take on their respective skills. Stewart's probably never going to be the kind of guy who can put up a ypc in the same ballpark as Williams', just like Steven Jackson is never going to be a 5+ ypc kind of guy (even if his unbelievable 2006, he only averaged 4.4 ypc). To be honest, though, Stewart doesn't have to put up a 5+ ypc in order to be a fantasy stud.In terms of physical attributes, the best comparisons for Stewart are Ronnie Brown and Steven Jackson. Those two are pretty much the only guys who have entered the NFL this decade with a comparable package of size and speed, although Stewart's size/speed combo is actually better than either of theirs. Williams is a more dynamic talent and a bigger threat in the open field, but Stewart is better suited to be a bellcow like Peterson, Jackson, or MJD. I really think that Williams benefits from Stewart's presence in a lot of ways, and that he wouldn't be doing as well without Stewart around. It's hard to say which RB is the more talented of the two, because they're very different backs, but I do think that both RBs are among the 5-8 most talented RBs in the league today.

 

[Tau837]

I don't care what the rationale is... there is no excuse for Fox getting Williams 13 carries for 122 yards and Stewart 12 carries for 43 yards. No excuse. And the Panthers lose because of this... they have given Williams fewer than 15 carries 3 times this season... all losses. In the other games, the Panthers are 4-3.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

It's hard to do a straight ypc comparison, because ypc isn't just team and player dependent, it's also SITUATION dependent.Imagine two hypothetical RBs. One RB averages 2 yards per carry on 3rd and 1, and averages 5 yards per carry on 1st and 10. The second RB averages 0 yards per carry on 3rd and 1, and 4 yards per carry on 1st and 10. The first RB has a better ypc in both situations, but if the second RB gets all of the first down carries and the first RB gets all of the third down carries, then the second RB will actually wind up with the higher overall ypc! This phenomenon (that a player can have a higher ypc in every single situation, but a lower overall ypc) is called "Simpson's Paradox", and is a very real effect that depresses the overall ypc of any RB who gets an inordinate about of red zone or short yardage carries.In addition to Simpson's Paradox, the ypc statistic always favors big-play RBs over consistent chain-movers. For instance, looking back at Denver, Tatum Bell always posted a sterling ypc (the best on the team in every season, iirc), despite the fact that he was viewed as mediocre and expendable. The reason was because he'd pad his total with a handful of huge runs. A guy who has 9 runs for 2 yards and a run for 32 yards is averaging 5.0 ypc, but a guy who runs for 4 yards half the time and 5 yards the other half is significantly more valuable.The final variable at play is where the runs are taking place. If a player only ever got the ball at the 1 yard line, the highest ypc he could possibly post would be 1.0 ypc. The closer to the end zone the runs are coming, the less potential there is for a long run that brings up the average ypc- after all, it's impossible to break an 80 yard run from midfield.Anyway, to see what's at play in Carolina, I did a bit of digging into splits. The data suggests that Stewart converts a higher percentage of short yardage carries, while Williams has a higher percentage of long runs, which seems to fit with my subjective take on their respective skills. Stewart's probably never going to be the kind of guy who can put up a ypc in the same ballpark as Williams', just like Steven Jackson is never going to be a 5+ ypc kind of guy (even if his unbelievable 2006, he only averaged 4.4 ypc). To be honest, though, Stewart doesn't have to put up a 5+ ypc in order to be a fantasy stud.In terms of physical attributes, the best comparisons for Stewart are Ronnie Brown and Steven Jackson. Those two are pretty much the only guys who have entered the NFL this decade with a comparable package of size and speed, although Stewart's size/speed combo is actually better than either of theirs. Williams is a more dynamic talent and a bigger threat in the open field, but Stewart is better suited to be a bellcow like Peterson, Jackson, or MJD. I really think that Williams benefits from Stewart's presence in a lot of ways, and that he wouldn't be doing as well without Stewart around. It's hard to say which RB is the more talented of the two, because they're very different backs, but I do think that both RBs are among the 5-8 most talented RBs in the league today.

Awesome work here, SSOG.I was going to post the same general points but not nearly as eloquently or in as much of an educational fashion.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

I don't care what the rationale is... there is no excuse for Fox getting Williams 13 carries for 122 yards and Stewart 12 carries for 43 yards. No excuse. And the Panthers lose because of this... they have given Williams fewer than 15 carries 3 times this season... all losses. In the other games, the Panthers are 4-3.

The problem wasn't Stewart's carries, it was the 42 pass attempts by Jake Delhomme in a game where the Panthers offensive coaches were clearly game-planning to keep Delhomme's confidence rising. It failed ... utterly.

 

[EBF]

Even Jackson and Brown aren't on the same athletic plane as Stewart purely in terms of measurables. He's right up there with the likes of Adrian Peterson and LaDainian Tomlinson. What makes his numbers especially freaky is his weight. He matches those guys in almost every important combine drill (40/vertical jump/broad jump) and he does it on a better frame. He's 3 inches shorter than Peterson and almost 30 pounds heavier. He's the same height as LT, but roughly 15 pounds heavier.

I can't think of more than 3-4 backs I'd rather have in dynasty. If you have him, don't trade him. Health permitting, he's going to be an absolute terror when he becomes a starter. I think Ronde Barber would agree with me.

 

[awesomeness]

Even Jackson and Brown aren't on the same athletic plane as Stewart purely in terms of measurables. He's right up there with the likes of Adrian Peterson and LaDainian Tomlinson. What makes his numbers especially freaky is his weight. He matches those guys in almost every important combine drill (40/vertical jump/broad jump) and he does it on a better frame. He's 3 inches shorter than Peterson and almost 30 pounds heavier. He's the same height as LT, but roughly 15 pounds heavier.

I can't think of more than 3-4 backs I'd rather have in dynasty. If you have him, don't trade him. Health permitting, he's going to be an absolute terror when he becomes a starter. I think Ronde Barber would agree with me.

i don't necessarily disagree with your opinion on Stewart, i think he's an excellent back, but i think you dwell too much on combine numbers.

 

[SSOG]

I don't care what the rationale is... there is no excuse for Fox getting Williams 13 carries for 122 yards and Stewart 12 carries for 43 yards. No excuse. And the Panthers lose because of this... they have given Williams fewer than 15 carries 3 times this season... all losses. In the other games, the Panthers are 4-3.

That's awfully reactionary thinking. I could just as easily say that there was no excuse last week for Fox getting Williams 19 carries for 92 yards when Stewart had 11 carries for 82 yards and 2 scores. Or say that against the Bucs there was no excuse for Fox to give Williams 30 carries when he was averaging only 5 ypc and only give 17 carries to Stewart when he was averaging 6.5 ypc. At the end of the day, Stewart has 4.8 ypc this season and Williams has 5.1, and those figures hold more predictive value for the next carry than whatever the individual RBs have produced to that point in the game. The whole "hot hand" idea is usually a fallacy- just because an RB has broken a couple of big runs already this game doesn't mean he's any more likely to break another big run on his next carry.Stewart was running very well tonight, despite what his ypc might look like. Look at the following carries, for instance:2-3-MIA41 (13:00) (No Huddle) J.Stewart left guard to MIA 37 for 4 yards (J.Porter).2-10-MIA37 (12:21) J.Stewart left tackle to MIA 27 for 10 yards (Y.Bell).1-10-CAR14 (1:33) J.Stewart right end to CAR 21 for 7 yards (S.Smith; T.McDaniel).3-1-CAR36 (11:09) J.Stewart up the middle to CAR 41 for 5 yards (T.McDaniel).1-10-MIA31 (12:06) (No Huddle) J.Stewart left tackle to MIA 24 for 7 yards (G.Wilson).1-10-MIA41 (2:06) J.Stewart right tackle to MIA 35 for 6 yards (J.Ferguson).That's six extremely productive carries, good enough for a 50% success rate on the day, which is a pretty solid outing by NFL standards (only 9 RBs finished last season with a 50+% success rate). The problem wasn't Stewart- as F&L already said, the problem was giving Delhomme 40+ pass attempts.

 

[SSOG]

i don't necessarily disagree with your opinion on Stewart, i think he's an excellent back, but i think you dwell too much on combine numbers.

More than any other position, RB exhibits the strongest correlation between measurables and success. That's why all those blue-chip busts with fantastic pedigree so often wind up turning their careers around after everyone gave up on them (DeAngelo, TJones, Benson, etc). It's also why metrics like BMI and Speed Score correlate so strongly to RB success. It's one thing to throw out combine numbers for a back who is stinking up the joint, but when a guy is 22 years old and has averaged 4.6 ypc for his career, those combine measurements remain very, very relevant. Things like vision and burst and patience and balance are all very important tools in an RB's toolkit, but obviously Stewart has those or he wouldn't have gotten drafted @ #13 overall and he wouldn't be excelling in the NFL. I'm more interested in the kinds of advantages Stewart possesses that no other back in the league can match. Physically, he's Steven Jackson, only more so.

 

[Tau837]

I don't care what the rationale is... there is no excuse for Fox getting Williams 13 carries for 122 yards and Stewart 12 carries for 43 yards. No excuse. And the Panthers lose because of this... they have given Williams fewer than 15 carries 3 times this season... all losses. In the other games, the Panthers are 4-3.

That's awfully reactionary thinking. I could just as easily say that there was no excuse last week for Fox getting Williams 19 carries for 92 yards when Stewart had 11 carries for 82 yards and 2 scores. Or say that against the Bucs there was no excuse for Fox to give Williams 30 carries when he was averaging only 5 ypc and only give 17 carries to Stewart when he was averaging 6.5 ypc. At the end of the day, Stewart has 4.8 ypc this season and Williams has 5.1, and those figures hold more predictive value for the next carry than whatever the individual RBs have produced to that point in the game. The whole "hot hand" idea is usually a fallacy- just because an RB has broken a couple of big runs already this game doesn't mean he's any more likely to break another big run on his next carry.Stewart was running very well tonight, despite what his ypc might look like. Look at the following carries, for instance:

2-3-MIA41 (13:00) (No Huddle) J.Stewart left guard to MIA 37 for 4 yards (J.Porter).

2-10-MIA37 (12:21) J.Stewart left tackle to MIA 27 for 10 yards (Y.Bell).

1-10-CAR14 (1:33) J.Stewart right end to CAR 21 for 7 yards (S.Smith; T.McDaniel).

3-1-CAR36 (11:09) J.Stewart up the middle to CAR 41 for 5 yards (T.McDaniel).

1-10-MIA31 (12:06) (No Huddle) J.Stewart left tackle to MIA 24 for 7 yards (G.Wilson).

1-10-MIA41 (2:06) J.Stewart right tackle to MIA 35 for 6 yards (J.Ferguson).

That's six extremely productive carries, good enough for a 50% success rate on the day, which is a pretty solid outing by NFL standards (only 9 RBs finished last season with a 50+% success rate). The problem wasn't Stewart- as F&L already said, the problem was giving Delhomme 40+ pass attempts.

It's not reactionary at all. I would have said the same thing before the game last night... no good reason to give Stewart as many carries as Williams. IMO Williams is one of the top few RBs in the NFL and Stewart is not in that tier.And as long as we're going to discuss their ypc, let's get it right. Williams is averaging 5.4 ypc on the season, Stewart is averaging 4.6. Last year, Williams averaged 5.5 ypc, compared to Stewart's 4.5. Williams averages 5.2 ypc for his career... Stewart averages 4.6.

Sure, Stewart looked fine on those 6 carries you cited, which totaled 39 yards... How about these 9 touches:

1st and 10 at MIA 48 (No Huddle) D.Williams up the middle to MIA 41 for 7 yards (G.Wilson).

1st and 10 at CAR 20 D.Williams left end to CAR 28 for 8 yards (G.Wilson).

2nd and 3 at CAR 21 D.Williams left tackle to CAR 34 for 13 yards (S.Smith).

2nd and 10 at CAR 27 D.Williams up the middle to CAR 36 for 9 yards (Y.Bell).

2nd and 11 at CAR 19 (No Huddle) D.Williams left guard to MIA 31 for 50 yards (Y.Bell).

2nd and 10 at CAR 45 D.Williams left tackle to MIA 46 for 9 yards (S.Smith).

2nd and 4 at MIA 35 J.Delhomme pass short middle to D.Williams to MIA 26 for 9 yards (S.Smith).

1st and 10 at MIA 26 D.Williams left tackle to MIA 8 for 18 yards (Y.Bell; P.Merling).

TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. D.Williams rushes up the middle. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.

ETA: In his career, the Panthers are 19-7 in games in which Williams got 15 or more carries, and 11-19 in games in which he got fewer than 15 carries. (Not including 3 games he didn't play in 2006... they were 1-2 in those games.)

 

[Anthony Borbely]

ETA: In his career, the Panthers are 19-7 in games in which Williams got 15 or more carries, and 11-19 in games in which he got fewer than 15 carries. (Not including 3 games he didn't play in 2006... they were 1-2 in those games.)

What was the record for just last year with the above?