Dynasty Rankings (22 Viewers)

[WFR]

Johnathan Stewart, CAR RB.

I don't think I've ever watched him play a single game.

Looking at his numbers doesn't really tell me how he runs the ball.

He seems very hit or miss and is obviously behind DWill until end of 2010.

Why is he so high in dynasty rankings?

Thanks!

 

[PranksterJD]

Rice is a lot more talented than Royal. He's also a different type of player than Royal. He's a different type of player than Evans, too. He's much bigger, more physical, and better at "attacking the ball". He's a huge target with great leaping skills. He's the kind of guy who becomes a bad QB's best friend.

Besides, you're talking as if it's a sure thing that Favre is gone next year and Jackson is in. Favre signed a 2-year deal, so why are we so sure he's gone? And remember Sage Rosenfels? He's still signed for a long time, and he's plenty good enough to take advantage of Rice (Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels did just fine with him under center). What about option B: the journeyman vet. Minnesota might sign Jason Campbell instead, in which case Rice will be just fine (Campbell has done well enough with Santana Moss over the years). Minnesota's in win-now mode. Kyle Orton is a FA, as well, and he seems to be able to get the ball to Brandon Marshall well enough. I guarantee you that whoever is lining up under center in Minny next season will be a capable enough QB to take advantage of Sidney Rice.

Rice is a **tall** target... not sure about **huge**. 6-4, 202 means he's about 20 lbs under where he ought to be. I'll agree that the kid can absolutely soar though.As for Favre leaving... not saying its a sure thing that he's gone after this year, but its a pretty sure thing that he's gone sooner than other QBs performing at his level. Of course the best case could happen... favre could stay through 2010 and the Vikes could lock in a stud QB afterward and Sidney never loses a step. However, that's one of two scenarios where Sidney's value doesn't take a hit and I'm less than thrilled about the prospects of it coming to fruition.

Andre did fine with Sage, but I'm not putting Sidney in Andre's category just yet. I'm just not ready to believe that Rice can perform regardless of QB. Maybe he is that good. I'm not going to say 100% that he's not, but this is the other scenario where he doesn't lose value, and I'm not optimistic about this one either. FWIW a quick glimpse of Owen Daniels says that other than his moster 11/133 game in 2008, most of the time Rosenfels was in, Daniels' performance seemed to suffer. I'm not as good with the stats as you so this may be refutable, but there were an awful lot of 1-2 catch games in there.

As for Option B... if Sidney performs like Santana Moss next year, it would ABSOLUTELY be worth moving him for the price I could get right now. Same for Orton. Marshall's getting the ball fine, but he's having his worst year right now, and his value has absolutely dropped since Kyle came on board.

I can buy that Rice is going to be a good player going forward. I'm not expecting a Braylon Edwards-style implosion. But I do think that there's a better than average chance that hes worse next year than he is now. I think he's good, but I don't know if he's one of the dynasty **nucleus** players, and with his 2009 play I can probably turn him into one. In all these scenarios you keep talking about Sidney being **fine**. Well, fine is a downgrade for him right now. Right now he's great. If he goes to fine in 2010, my dynasty team just lost value.

Its kinda like you were talking about earlier with your end of roster prospect WRs. Rice is one of those guys that I've been sitting on and it feels like this offseason (before Favre-Watch 3.0) will be the time to cash in the chips.

 

[SSOG]

Rice is a **tall** target... not sure about **huge**. 6-4, 202 means he's about 20 lbs under where he ought to be. I'll agree that the kid can absolutely soar though.

As for Favre leaving... not saying its a sure thing that he's gone after this year, but its a pretty sure thing that he's gone sooner than other QBs performing at his level. Of course the best case could happen... favre could stay through 2010 and the Vikes could lock in a stud QB afterward and Sidney never loses a step. However, that's one of two scenarios where Sidney's value doesn't take a hit and I'm less than thrilled about the prospects of it coming to fruition.

Andre did fine with Sage, but I'm not putting Sidney in Andre's category just yet. I'm just not ready to believe that Rice can perform regardless of QB. Maybe he is that good. I'm not going to say 100% that he's not, but this is the other scenario where he doesn't lose value, and I'm not optimistic about this one either. FWIW a quick glimpse of Owen Daniels says that other than his moster 11/133 game in 2008, most of the time Rosenfels was in, Daniels' performance seemed to suffer. I'm not as good with the stats as you so this may be refutable, but there were an awful lot of 1-2 catch games in there.

As for Option B... if Sidney performs like Santana Moss next year, it would ABSOLUTELY be worth moving him for the price I could get right now. Same for Orton. Marshall's getting the ball fine, but he's having his worst year right now, and his value has absolutely dropped since Kyle came on board.

I can buy that Rice is going to be a good player going forward. I'm not expecting a Braylon Edwards-style implosion. But I do think that there's a better than average chance that hes worse next year than he is now. I think he's good, but I don't know if he's one of the dynasty **nucleus** players, and with his 2009 play I can probably turn him into one. In all these scenarios you keep talking about Sidney being **fine**. Well, fine is a downgrade for him right now. Right now he's great. If he goes to fine in 2010, my dynasty team just lost value.

Its kinda like you were talking about earlier with your end of roster prospect WRs. Rice is one of those guys that I've been sitting on and it feels like this offseason (before Favre-Watch 3.0) will be the time to cash in the chips.

When I say that Rice is a huge target, I don't mean that Rice is a target who is huge, I mean that Rice is a huge target. There is an exceptionally large area in which you can throw a football and still have Sidney Rice come up with it.As an example: imagine WR-A catches anything that is thrown up to 3 feet above his head, 3 feet behind him, or 3 feet ahead of him. WR-B catches anything that is thrown 1 foot above, behind, or ahead of him. Assuming both WRs are 6 feet tall and capable of catching anything from the ground up, that means that WR-A presents a viable target of 54 square feet, while WR-B presents a target of only 14 square feet. WR-A is a huge target, WR-B is a very small target.

As for the rest of it... if you don't think Rice is nucleus, and you do think you can get nucleus in return, then do it. That's true of anyone, at any time, whether they're having a good season or a bad season or whatever. I question whether you could trade Sidney Rice for Larry Fitzgerald or Andre Johnson or Calvin or Reggie or even Roddy or Marques or Vincent or Desean right now. If you can, then more power to you. If you can't, though... I can think of very few WRs outside of those guys with a better chance at becoming nucleus than Sidney Rice.

 

[renesauz]

I don't think Brian Westbrook is done in Philly. There, I said it. Just wanted to get that off my chest.

IIRC, Theres a clause in Westy's contract, that he can be cut in 2010 with minimal cap hit for the Eagles.He's due to make around 7 million next year. With McCoy emerging, he may be a salry cap casualty?

Factor in repeated concussions, there's just too much stacked against him.

Those escalators below will most like be reduced with missed playing time, not sure what the escalators are though?

The Philadelphia Inquirer, citing a source close to the negotiations, said Westbrook would be paid $13 million in the first two seasons guaranteed, and then make $21 million over the next three seasons, with escalators based on playoff appearances and individual performance.

http://sport.moldova.org/news/eagles-give-...140870-eng.html

What would stop the Eagles from bringing him back on a renegotiated deal?

It goes completely against the Eagles M.O. The Eagles let Trotter go when he was still a pro-bowler, and Dawkins (DAWKINS!) go over a differance of only a million or so, because they felt he was no longer worth it.There is virtually ZERO CHANCE Westbrook comes back on his current deal, and I'd be surpsied if the two sides worked out a mutually attractive replacement deal.

Besides, there has been no real indication from Westbrook that he even wants to come back!

I strongly suspect Westbrook is done at years end, if he isn't already done.

 

[PranksterJD]

When I say that Rice is a huge target, I don't mean that Rice is a target who is huge, I mean that Rice is a huge target. There is an exceptionally large area in which you can throw a football and still have Sidney Rice come up with it.As an example: imagine WR-A catches anything that is thrown up to 3 feet above his head, 3 feet behind him, or 3 feet ahead of him. WR-B catches anything that is thrown 1 foot above, behind, or ahead of him. Assuming both WRs are 6 feet tall and capable of catching anything from the ground up, that means that WR-A presents a viable target of 54 square feet, while WR-B presents a target of only 14 square feet. WR-A is a huge target, WR-B is a very small target.

Gotcha... definitely on board with that.

As for the rest of it... if you don't think Rice is nucleus, and you do think you can get nucleus in return, then do it. That's true of anyone, at any time, whether they're having a good season or a bad season or whatever. I question whether you could trade Sidney Rice for Larry Fitzgerald or Andre Johnson or Calvin or Reggie or even Roddy or Marques or Vincent or Desean right now. If you can, then more power to you. If you can't, though... I can think of very few WRs outside of those guys with a better chance at becoming nucleus than Sidney Rice.

In a straight 1-1 deal, of course I'm not getting one of those guys. It has to be Sidney + X = uber-stud. Its how much that "X" is going to increase with another QB that worries me.

 

[WFR]

SSOG, I'd love to hear your take on him!

F&L has him ranked #11 currently.

Johnathan Stewart, CAR RB.

I don't think I've ever watched him play a single game.

Looking at his numbers doesn't really tell me how he runs the ball.

He seems very hit or miss and is obviously behind DWill until end of 2010.

Why is he so high in dynasty rankings?

Thanks!

 

[PranksterJD]

SSOG, I'd love to hear your take on him!

F&L has him ranked #11 currently.

Johnathan Stewart, CAR RB.

I don't think I've ever watched him play a single game.

Looking at his numbers doesn't really tell me how he runs the ball.

He seems very hit or miss and is obviously behind DWill until end of 2010.

Why is he so high in dynasty rankings?

Thanks!

I'm as big a Stewart fan as you'll find, and I own him on pretty much every team I've got. He's got some consistency problems behind DeAngelo, but he's as close to Michael Turner '07 as you'll find right now. He's as young as most of this year's rookies, and as soon as he gets his chance to shine he's going to be an absolute beast.That said ( and pardon the ACF post but it just ties together nicely ), I had an offer to get Stewart for Sidney Rice + late 2010 1st and I passed... but I thought about it for a looooong time.

 

[MountainMan0726]

Johnathan Stewart, CAR RB.

I don't think I've ever watched him play a single game.

Looking at his numbers doesn't really tell me how he runs the ball.

He seems very hit or miss and is obviously behind DWill until end of 2010.

Why is he so high in dynasty rankings?

Thanks!

I'll chip in my 2 cents, which I'm sure will echo most of the experts on this site. Stewart is a physical freak of nature, and the bottom line is that men that heavy (235 lbs) should NOT be able to run as swiftly as Stewart does. Once he has a couple of steps to get up to speed, he's gonna break any arm tackle, and he has the shiftiness to elude the second level safety for big gains. Right now he may be seen as a Steven Jackson-light, but he's very close to being Jackson regular. The "knock" on him has mainly always been about competition in DWill, but in today's NFL I don't know how much longer the Panthers can afford to carry 2 top flight backs. Stewart is still very young and will get his shot, and he will perform as a RB1. I haven't run his pro-rated carry numbers (say if he were getting 25 touches/game), but I'm sure they are pretty ridiculous.

 

[jdoggydogg]

So you're saying you'd upgrade Kolb because he looked bad against the Saints?

No. You said Kolb looked bad vs. the Saints as evidence that you aren't high on him. I'm saying that doesn't support your argument when guys like Brady looked bad vs. the Saints.

 

[EBF]

The argument for Stewart at #11 is simple: he's a Steven Jackson level physical talent and he'll be a surefire top 5 back whenever he finally becomes a full-time workhorse. I don't think RB11 is too high for him. If anything, it's too low. I can only count 4-5 backs that I clearly prefer in dynasty.

 

[MountainMan0726]

Better young D/ST for Dynasty purposes, Cincinnati or San Francisco? (and "why" always helps!)

 

[editor47]

Better young D/ST for Dynasty purposes, Cincinnati or San Francisco? (and "why" always helps!)

SF-Patrick Willis, Mike singletary.

 

[SSOG]

SSOG, I'd love to hear your take on him!

F&L has him ranked #11 currently.

Johnathan Stewart, CAR RB.

I don't think I've ever watched him play a single game.

Looking at his numbers doesn't really tell me how he runs the ball.

He seems very hit or miss and is obviously behind DWill until end of 2010.

Why is he so high in dynasty rankings?

Thanks!

People have mentioned Steven Jackson twice already, and that's because Jackson is the best physical comp in the league today, although Stewart is actually a significantly better specimen, believe it or not. Here are their combine numbers:Jackson- 6'2", 231lb

Stewart- 5'10", 235lb

Jackson- 4.55 40 yard dash

Stewart- 4.46 40 yard dash

Jackson- 9'10" Broad Jump

Stewart- 10'8" Broad Jump

Jackson- 37.5" Vertical

Stewart- 36.5" Vertical

As you can see, despite being more massive (4 pounds heavier *AND* 4 inches shorter), Stewart ran the 40 almost a full tenth of a second faster, and had 10" more on his broad jump (although Jackson's vertical was an inch higher). When you watch Steven Jackson play and you watch how physically dominant he is over his peers, you have to realize that Stewart is potentially even MORE dominant. He's arguably the best physical specimen to ever enter the league at the RB position. Ever. We're talking off-the-charts upside potential, here. And this isn't a Matt Jones situation, where he's all potential with nothing to show for it- he's been extremely effective so far in his career in limited action. He's averaging 4.6 career ypc, and he's been very effective in short yardage situations. He runs with power and authority, and he has one of the filthiest stiff arms I have ever seen. When he gets a starting job all to himself, I fully expect him to produce in the MJD/ADP/CJ3/SJax tier. Worst case scenario, he finds himself in the Gore/Williams/Turner tier.

No. You said Kolb looked bad vs. the Saints as evidence that you aren't high on him. I'm saying that doesn't support your argument when guys like Brady looked bad vs. the Saints.

No, I said that I wasn't high on him in the first place, and he'd done nothing to change my mind. I only mentioned how bad he was against the Saints because he sort of got a lot of hype for throwing for a million yards in his first two starts, and I was trying to put it into perspective.

Better young D/ST for Dynasty purposes, Cincinnati or San Francisco? (and "why" always helps!)

I talked about defenses a bit back on page 109. I'll copy/paste the post over here, because the entire thing is relevant:

D/STs are a massive, massive, massive crapshoot. Coming into this season, 28 defenses were rostered in my dynasty league. The 4 defenses that everyone decided were so terrible they weren't even worth rostering? The St. Louis Rams (currently ranked 32nd), the Cleveland Browns (currently ranked 27th), the Denver Broncos (currently ranked 4th), and the New Orleans Saints (currently ranked 2nd). The Bengals (currently ranked 6th) and Cardinals (currently ranked 12th and with the juiciest playoff matchups ever) also spent some time on the street at some point during this season. One guy traded a 2nd rounder and Jermichael Finley for the Green Bay defense because he liked their matchup in week 7, and I still haven't stopped ridiculing him for it. Two days earlier, I had picked up the Cards, who are now ranked 2 slots higher than the Pack, right off the street. I told him I'd give him a steal on the Cardinals and sell them to him for the low low price of a rookie 2nd rounder, no quality prospect needed. As junky as 2nd rounders are, they're still worth more than all but maybe 3 fantasy defenses. Even if every defense in the league is rostered, if you've got roster spots to burn, you're probably better off trading a handful of pocket lint for 6 terrible defenses and then waiting to see which one becomes the next New Orleans Saints or Denver Broncos.

As far as evaluating defenses for Dynasty, since it's such a crapshoot, I generally look for playmakers, whether they're making plays or not. Sometimes, the only difference between a 2008 Denver Broncos and a 2009 Denver Broncos is an Elvis Dumervil, or the only difference between a 2008 New Orleans and a 2009 New Orleans is a Darren Sharper. Very few defenses are consistently dominant because of any sort of schematic advantage (Pittsburgh, Philly, New England, the Monte Kiffen Bucs), most of the time it's just the best fantasy defenses are the defenses with the studs who are playing out of their mind. As a result, instead of paying full price for the known quantity defenses (the Pennsylvania pair, the Vikings), I prefer to just speculate on a lot of cheap defenses with a young stud who might not be playing like it at the moment. Some mediocre defenses in my scoring system with some great young studs that I'd be looking to buy into right now include: Dallas Cowboys (Def#15, Demarcus Ware), Baltimore Ravens (Def#16, Reed+Suggs, although they'll be pricier based on name value), SD Chargers (Def#17, Merriman+Cromartie, although they also have some residual name value driving up the cost), Texans (Def#19, Mario Williams + Demeco Ryans), 49ers (Def#20, Willis), and Panthers (Def#22, Peppers). If you're looking to acquire some really terrible defenses on the super-cheap (most of these will probably be on waivers), I'd look long and hard at the Chiefs (Def#28 with a ton of young talent from the past 2 drafts), Jaguars (Def#30 and Heyward, Spicer, and Mathis are all quality players who wouldn't shock me if they became major playmakers), and Rams (Def#32, Chris Long, James Laurinitis, whoever else they wind up drafting high).

Of the two you listed, I'd take San Francisco, even though Willis isn't the type of guy you'd ever expect to be a fantasy difference maker.

 

[ty247]

SSOG, I'd love to hear your take on him!

F&L has him ranked #11 currently.

Johnathan Stewart, CAR RB.

I don't think I've ever watched him play a single game.

Looking at his numbers doesn't really tell me how he runs the ball.

He seems very hit or miss and is obviously behind DWill until end of 2010.

Why is he so high in dynasty rankings?

Thanks!

People have mentioned Steven Jackson twice already, and that's because Jackson is the best physical comp in the league today, although Stewart is actually a significantly better specimen, believe it or not. Here are their combine numbers:Jackson- 6'2", 231lb

Stewart- 5'10", 235lb

Jackson- 4.55 40 yard dash

Stewart- 4.46 40 yard dash

Jackson- 9'10" Broad Jump

Stewart- 10'8" Broad Jump

Jackson- 37.5" Vertical

Stewart- 36.5" Vertical

As you can see, despite being more massive (4 pounds heavier *AND* 4 inches shorter), Stewart ran the 40 almost a full tenth of a second faster, and had 10" more on his broad jump (although Jackson's vertical was an inch higher). When you watch Steven Jackson play and you watch how physically dominant he is over his peers, you have to realize that Stewart is potentially even MORE dominant. He's arguably the best physical specimen to ever enter the league at the RB position. Ever. We're talking off-the-charts upside potential, here. And this isn't a Matt Jones situation, where he's all potential with nothing to show for it- he's been extremely effective so far in his career in limited action. He's averaging 4.6 career ypc, and he's been very effective in short yardage situations. He runs with power and authority, and he has one of the filthiest stiff arms I have ever seen. When he gets a starting job all to himself, I fully expect him to produce in the MJD/ADP/CJ3/SJax tier. Worst case scenario, he finds himself in the Gore/Williams/Turner tier.

What would you be willing to give up at the very most to get him? What's his maximum buy value, where at some point you say "I won't go any higher than this".I've been trying to obtain him for over a month from one owner, but I haven't been willing to give up much more than a 2010 late first and late second rounder for him. (10 team)

Am I not assigning enough value to him or am I in the ballpark?

 

[BigJim®]

SSOG, I'd love to hear your take on him!

F&L has him ranked #11 currently.

Johnathan Stewart, CAR RB.

I don't think I've ever watched him play a single game.

Looking at his numbers doesn't really tell me how he runs the ball.

He seems very hit or miss and is obviously behind DWill until end of 2010.

Why is he so high in dynasty rankings?

Thanks!

People have mentioned Steven Jackson twice already, and that's because Jackson is the best physical comp in the league today, although Stewart is actually a significantly better specimen, believe it or not. Here are their combine numbers:Jackson- 6'2", 231lb

Stewart- 5'10", 235lb

Jackson- 4.55 40 yard dash

Stewart- 4.46 40 yard dash

Jackson- 9'10" Broad Jump

Stewart- 10'8" Broad Jump

Jackson- 37.5" Vertical

Stewart- 36.5" Vertical

As you can see, despite being more massive (4 pounds heavier *AND* 4 inches shorter), Stewart ran the 40 almost a full tenth of a second faster, and had 10" more on his broad jump (although Jackson's vertical was an inch higher). When you watch Steven Jackson play and you watch how physically dominant he is over his peers, you have to realize that Stewart is potentially even MORE dominant. He's arguably the best physical specimen to ever enter the league at the RB position. Ever. We're talking off-the-charts upside potential, here. And this isn't a Matt Jones situation, where he's all potential with nothing to show for it- he's been extremely effective so far in his career in limited action. He's averaging 4.6 career ypc, and he's been very effective in short yardage situations. He runs with power and authority, and he has one of the filthiest stiff arms I have ever seen. When he gets a starting job all to himself, I fully expect him to produce in the MJD/ADP/CJ3/SJax tier. Worst case scenario, he finds himself in the Gore/Williams/Turner tier.

What would you be willing to give up at the very most to get him? What's his maximum buy value, where at some point you say "I won't go any higher than this".I've been trying to obtain him for over a month from one owner, but I haven't been willing to give up much more than a 2010 late first and late second rounder for him. (10 team)

Am I not assigning enough value to him or am I in the ballpark?

Not in the ballpark, IMHO. I own Stewart and there is no way I would trade him away at that value. You have to keep in mind you are negotiating with a guy who probably used a top 3 rookie pick to get Stewart. Having done that, and waited out 2 years, he's that much closer to his payoff. Right or wrong you will probably need to pay starter value for Stewart in dynasty, based solely on his youth and upside.

 

[geoff8695]

SSOG, I'd love to hear your take on him!

F&L has him ranked #11 currently.

Johnathan Stewart, CAR RB.

I don't think I've ever watched him play a single game.

Looking at his numbers doesn't really tell me how he runs the ball.

He seems very hit or miss and is obviously behind DWill until end of 2010.

Why is he so high in dynasty rankings?

Thanks!

People have mentioned Steven Jackson twice already, and that's because Jackson is the best physical comp in the league today, although Stewart is actually a significantly better specimen, believe it or not. Here are their combine numbers:Jackson- 6'2", 231lb

Stewart- 5'10", 235lb

Jackson- 4.55 40 yard dash

Stewart- 4.46 40 yard dash

Jackson- 9'10" Broad Jump

Stewart- 10'8" Broad Jump

Jackson- 37.5" Vertical

Stewart- 36.5" Vertical

As you can see, despite being more massive (4 pounds heavier *AND* 4 inches shorter), Stewart ran the 40 almost a full tenth of a second faster, and had 10" more on his broad jump (although Jackson's vertical was an inch higher). When you watch Steven Jackson play and you watch how physically dominant he is over his peers, you have to realize that Stewart is potentially even MORE dominant. He's arguably the best physical specimen to ever enter the league at the RB position. Ever. We're talking off-the-charts upside potential, here. And this isn't a Matt Jones situation, where he's all potential with nothing to show for it- he's been extremely effective so far in his career in limited action. He's averaging 4.6 career ypc, and he's been very effective in short yardage situations. He runs with power and authority, and he has one of the filthiest stiff arms I have ever seen. When he gets a starting job all to himself, I fully expect him to produce in the MJD/ADP/CJ3/SJax tier. Worst case scenario, he finds himself in the Gore/Williams/Turner tier.

What would you be willing to give up at the very most to get him? What's his maximum buy value, where at some point you say "I won't go any higher than this".I've been trying to obtain him for over a month from one owner, but I haven't been willing to give up much more than a 2010 late first and late second rounder for him. (10 team)

Am I not assigning enough value to him or am I in the ballpark?

If you are as high on him as SSOG, EBF and others, then clearly you aren't even in the ballpark yet. So if you want Stewart you're going to have to pay a lot more than a late first rounder in 2010. However, I wouldn't recommend it.Although it's not going to be a popular opinion around here, I wouldn't trade for Johnathan Stewart unless his owner undervalues him. He possesses great skills and on paper looks like a potential HOF'er, but he is also a bigger back with a history of lower body injuries. I am generally concerned about large RB and those who play a more physical and bruising style, and I believe that most of them have a propensity to break down earlier in their careers. I wonder if Stewart's bulk and the violence of the game are just too much for his lower body (joints, tendons, feet, etc.) to handle. I see potential red flags here that his legs may not be able to support a lengthy career as a bellcow RB in the NFL. But that's like.... just my opinion man...

 

[domvin]

Better young D/ST for Dynasty purposes, Cincinnati or San Francisco? (and "why" always helps!)

SF-Patrick Willis, Mike singletary.

Toss in the fact that Mike Zimmer, Cincys DC is on his last year as well. Zimmer's name will be tossed around at seasons end for some coaching jobs based on the job he has done this past year. Cincy tried to offer him an extension in September, but it went nowhere. He may stay as well, but he's a Hot HC CandidateSadly, losing his wife may factor in as well. He may want to spend more time with his two girls.

 

[valhallan]

What would you be willing to give up at the very most to get him? What's his maximum buy value, where at some point you say "I won't go any higher than this".

I've been trying to obtain him for over a month from one owner, but I haven't been willing to give up much more than a 2010 late first and late second rounder for him. (10 team)

Am I not assigning enough value to him or am I in the ballpark?

Not in the ballpark, IMHO. I own Stewart and there is no way I would trade him away at that value. You have to keep in mind you are negotiating with a guy who probably used a top 3 rookie pick to get Stewart. Having done that, and waited out 2 years, he's that much closer to his payoff. Right or wrong you will probably need to pay starter value for Stewart in dynasty, based solely on his youth and upside.

Exactly. This is such a key point of trading that many people don't consider. You have to put yourself in the other guys shoes... what did he do to acquire this player? What has he been doing with him? Has he been starting him? When you want a player like Stewart, you absolutely have to give the guy a top 5 pick or a currently very good player (say, Santonio Holmes) at the least to get his attention. It would make zero sense for him to have spent a top 3 pick, carried him for two years (during which the player has looked primed to break out), and then trade him for far less than was spent to acquire him. This was much like Mendenhall earlier this year. As the owner, I had several people lowballing me and I kept telling them I spent the 4th overall for this guy I'm not just going to give him up for nothing. It's a start 2 quarterback league, so I ended up getting Sanchez (taken with the 1.05). Both players have had their good and bad moments, but the key to making the trade happen was the other owner recognizing I needed to be compensated for the high pick I spent to acquire Mendenhall and my roster was in a need of a young QB. Perfect offer.

 

[Football Daddy]

What would you be willing to give up at the very most to get him? What's his maximum buy value, where at some point you say "I won't go any higher than this".

I've been trying to obtain him for over a month from one owner, but I haven't been willing to give up much more than a 2010 late first and late second rounder for him. (10 team)

Am I not assigning enough value to him or am I in the ballpark?

Not in the ballpark, IMHO. I own Stewart and there is no way I would trade him away at that value. You have to keep in mind you are negotiating with a guy who probably used a top 3 rookie pick to get Stewart. Having done that, and waited out 2 years, he's that much closer to his payoff. Right or wrong you will probably need to pay starter value for Stewart in dynasty, based solely on his youth and upside.

Exactly. This is such a key point of trading that many people don't consider. You have to put yourself in the other guys shoes... what did he do to acquire this player? What has he been doing with him? Has he been starting him? When you want a player like Stewart, you absolutely have to give the guy a top 5 pick or a currently very good player (say, Santonio Holmes) at the least to get his attention. It would make zero sense for him to have spent a top 3 pick, carried him for two years (during which the player has looked primed to break out), and then trade him for far less than was spent to acquire him. This was much like Mendenhall earlier this year. As the owner, I had several people lowballing me and I kept telling them I spent the 4th overall for this guy I'm not just going to give him up for nothing. It's a start 2 quarterback league, so I ended up getting Sanchez (taken with the 1.05). Both players have had their good and bad moments, but the key to making the trade happen was the other owner recognizing I needed to be compensated for the high pick I spent to acquire Mendenhall and my roster was in a need of a young QB. Perfect offer.

I live in Oregon and am a Duck fan (smelling Roses this morning) who marveled at Stewart during his college days. I have always thought if he could avoid the injury bug (my biggest concern for him) he has top 5 potential. Not so far out to think he could have a year or two where he is the best. That said I have coveted him in our dynasty/salary cap league for quite some time. Just waiting for the right time to make an offer. The guy who had him was in a dog fight for first when Cedric Benson went down. His other weakness was WR3. At this time Justin Forsett had just gone off after the JJ injury. I offered him Forsett and P. Garcon for Stew. He said YES!

I suppose the lesson there is to look at your league and be prepared to leverage panic/need to get someone you covet. Now I just need Deangelo to go away...

 

[valhallan]

What would you be willing to give up at the very most to get him? What's his maximum buy value, where at some point you say "I won't go any higher than this".

I've been trying to obtain him for over a month from one owner, but I haven't been willing to give up much more than a 2010 late first and late second rounder for him. (10 team)

Am I not assigning enough value to him or am I in the ballpark?

Not in the ballpark, IMHO. I own Stewart and there is no way I would trade him away at that value. You have to keep in mind you are negotiating with a guy who probably used a top 3 rookie pick to get Stewart. Having done that, and waited out 2 years, he's that much closer to his payoff. Right or wrong you will probably need to pay starter value for Stewart in dynasty, based solely on his youth and upside.

Exactly. This is such a key point of trading that many people don't consider. You have to put yourself in the other guys shoes... what did he do to acquire this player? What has he been doing with him? Has he been starting him? When you want a player like Stewart, you absolutely have to give the guy a top 5 pick or a currently very good player (say, Santonio Holmes) at the least to get his attention. It would make zero sense for him to have spent a top 3 pick, carried him for two years (during which the player has looked primed to break out), and then trade him for far less than was spent to acquire him. This was much like Mendenhall earlier this year. As the owner, I had several people lowballing me and I kept telling them I spent the 4th overall for this guy I'm not just going to give him up for nothing. It's a start 2 quarterback league, so I ended up getting Sanchez (taken with the 1.05). Both players have had their good and bad moments, but the key to making the trade happen was the other owner recognizing I needed to be compensated for the high pick I spent to acquire Mendenhall and my roster was in a need of a young QB. Perfect offer.

I live in Oregon and am a Duck fan (smelling Roses this morning) who marveled at Stewart during his college days. I have always thought if he could avoid the injury bug (my biggest concern for him) he has top 5 potential. Not so far out to think he could have a year or two where he is the best. That said I have coveted him in our dynasty/salary cap league for quite some time. Just waiting for the right time to make an offer. The guy who had him was in a dog fight for first when Cedric Benson went down. His other weakness was WR3. At this time Justin Forsett had just gone off after the JJ injury. I offered him Forsett and P. Garcon for Stew. He said YES!

I suppose the lesson there is to look at your league and be prepared to leverage panic/need to get someone you covet. Now I just need Deangelo to go away...

Absolutely. I literally stole Drew Brees after his two clunkers and bye week earlier in the year. Palmer had 4 pretty good games in a row and Lynch had just scored 20 points... I packaged them with Earl Bennett and a 1st rounder for Brees, Hightower, Wells (no big games yet), and a 2nd. Bought low on Brees and Wells, sold high on Palmer and Lynch.

 

[geoff8695]

What would you be willing to give up at the very most to get him? What's his maximum buy value, where at some point you say "I won't go any higher than this".

I've been trying to obtain him for over a month from one owner, but I haven't been willing to give up much more than a 2010 late first and late second rounder for him. (10 team)

Am I not assigning enough value to him or am I in the ballpark?

Not in the ballpark, IMHO. I own Stewart and there is no way I would trade him away at that value. You have to keep in mind you are negotiating with a guy who probably used a top 3 rookie pick to get Stewart. Having done that, and waited out 2 years, he's that much closer to his payoff. Right or wrong you will probably need to pay starter value for Stewart in dynasty, based solely on his youth and upside.

Exactly. This is such a key point of trading that many people don't consider. You have to put yourself in the other guys shoes... what did he do to acquire this player? What has he been doing with him? Has he been starting him? When you want a player like Stewart, you absolutely have to give the guy a top 5 pick or a currently very good player (say, Santonio Holmes) at the least to get his attention. It would make zero sense for him to have spent a top 3 pick, carried him for two years (during which the player has looked primed to break out), and then trade him for far less than was spent to acquire him. This was much like Mendenhall earlier this year. As the owner, I had several people lowballing me and I kept telling them I spent the 4th overall for this guy I'm not just going to give him up for nothing. It's a start 2 quarterback league, so I ended up getting Sanchez (taken with the 1.05). Both players have had their good and bad moments, but the key to making the trade happen was the other owner recognizing I needed to be compensated for the high pick I spent to acquire Mendenhall and my roster was in a need of a young QB. Perfect offer.

I live in Oregon and am a Duck fan (smelling Roses this morning) who marveled at Stewart during his college days. I have always thought if he could avoid the injury bug (my biggest concern for him) he has top 5 potential. Not so far out to think he could have a year or two where he is the best. That said I have coveted him in our dynasty/salary cap league for quite some time. Just waiting for the right time to make an offer. The guy who had him was in a dog fight for first when Cedric Benson went down. His other weakness was WR3. At this time Justin Forsett had just gone off after the JJ injury. I offered him Forsett and P. Garcon for Stew. He said YES!

I suppose the lesson there is to look at your league and be prepared to leverage panic/need to get someone you covet. Now I just need Deangelo to go away...

Wow! Nice deal for you! I like Garcon more than most, but I don't see Forsett as much more than a short term band-aid. Even though I'm not as high as others on Stewart, at the very least he is a great asset whose value is certain to rise and could be useful as part of a future trade, and at best you just landed a core player and future STUD for pennies on the dollar IMHO.

 

[geoff8695]

Absolutely. I literally stole Drew Brees after his two clunkers and bye week earlier in the year. Palmer had 4 pretty good games in a row and Lynch had just scored 20 points... I packaged them with Earl Bennett and a 1st rounder for Brees, Hightower, Wells (no big games yet), and a 2nd. Bought low on Brees and Wells, sold high on Palmer and Lynch.

That's getting it done! I need to take a page from this book, myself. I do a good job on draft day and in assessing future talent, where I've generally hit more often than missed. But I've often waited too long to make deals, and when I really want a player, I've had to over pay or pass on them altogether.Currently stuck with Palmer as my #1 as well, and whiffed badly on opportunities to obtain Romo, Brees, and others this year because of poor timing and not moving when these players where at lowest value.It's pretty tough to strike the right balance between being patient with guys on your roster or identifying the right moment to make a move for players you covet without having to pay through the nose for them. With players values constantly rising and falling, timing becomes a critical factor in trades. Great example!

 

[massive attack]

SSOG, I'd love to hear your take on him!

F&L has him ranked #11 currently.

Johnathan Stewart, CAR RB.

I don't think I've ever watched him play a single game.

Looking at his numbers doesn't really tell me how he runs the ball.

He seems very hit or miss and is obviously behind DWill until end of 2010.

Why is he so high in dynasty rankings?

Thanks!

People have mentioned Steven Jackson twice already, and that's because Jackson is the best physical comp in the league today, although Stewart is actually a significantly better specimen, believe it or not. Here are their combine numbers:Jackson- 6'2", 231lb

Stewart- 5'10", 235lb

Jackson- 4.55 40 yard dash

Stewart- 4.46 40 yard dash

Jackson- 9'10" Broad Jump

Stewart- 10'8" Broad Jump

Jackson- 37.5" Vertical

Stewart- 36.5" Vertical

As you can see, despite being more massive (4 pounds heavier *AND* 4 inches shorter), Stewart ran the 40 almost a full tenth of a second faster, and had 10" more on his broad jump (although Jackson's vertical was an inch higher). When you watch Steven Jackson play and you watch how physically dominant he is over his peers, you have to realize that Stewart is potentially even MORE dominant. He's arguably the best physical specimen to ever enter the league at the RB position. Ever. We're talking off-the-charts upside potential, here. And this isn't a Matt Jones situation, where he's all potential with nothing to show for it- he's been extremely effective so far in his career in limited action. He's averaging 4.6 career ypc, and he's been very effective in short yardage situations. He runs with power and authority, and he has one of the filthiest stiff arms I have ever seen. When he gets a starting job all to himself, I fully expect him to produce in the MJD/ADP/CJ3/SJax tier. Worst case scenario, he finds himself in the Gore/Williams/Turner tier.

What would you be willing to give up at the very most to get him? What's his maximum buy value, where at some point you say "I won't go any higher than this".I've been trying to obtain him for over a month from one owner, but I haven't been willing to give up much more than a 2010 late first and late second rounder for him. (10 team)

Am I not assigning enough value to him or am I in the ballpark?

4 weeks ago just before our trade deadline, I made my move to get Stewart. Many feel I overpaid, but I'm happy with the deal and the previous owner of Stewart highly valued him as well. Many of the examples I've seen listed here are good "buy lows" on him and others, but this may help you see what others are willing to pay for him.I moved Turner and Britt for Stewart and Roddy.

 

[valhallan]

Absolutely. I literally stole Drew Brees after his two clunkers and bye week earlier in the year. Palmer had 4 pretty good games in a row and Lynch had just scored 20 points... I packaged them with Earl Bennett and a 1st rounder for Brees, Hightower, Wells (no big games yet), and a 2nd. Bought low on Brees and Wells, sold high on Palmer and Lynch.

That's getting it done! I need to take a page from this book, myself. I do a good job on draft day and in assessing future talent, where I've generally hit more often than missed. But I've often waited too long to make deals, and when I really want a player, I've had to over pay or pass on them altogether.Currently stuck with Palmer as my #1 as well, and whiffed badly on opportunities to obtain Romo, Brees, and others this year because of poor timing and not moving when these players where at lowest value.It's pretty tough to strike the right balance between being patient with guys on your roster or identifying the right moment to make a move for players you covet without having to pay through the nose for them. With players values constantly rising and falling, timing becomes a critical factor in trades. Great example!

Thanks. F&L gave me a little push to send Palmer packing and it looked like the time was right. Timing is hugely important. Dynasty owners can be fickle about studs when they're not producing (lots of grumbling about VJax right now) and likewise overvalue the latest shiny toy (Forsett above). Regarding overpaying, I wouldn't worry about that too much. Unless you're sending a bona fide stud in your deal to get a bona fide stud, you just can't be overpaying. Palmer is no longer a bona fide stud, so including other prospects or picks on top of him to get a guy like Brees is not overpaying unless it's the 1.01, 1.02, and 1.03... and even that would be worth considering.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

Try to look ahead and determine how your deal may look then. Often times, especially when trading for a stud or potential stud, you may make a trade that looks like you overpaid (you actually may have), but the following year, the deal looks the exact opposite. I will overpay (I use the term overpay loosely) for a stud if I think it will really benefit me down the road. Studs are expensive for a reason.

 

[az_prof]

SSOG, I'd love to hear your take on him!

F&L has him ranked #11 currently.

Johnathan Stewart, CAR RB.

I don't think I've ever watched him play a single game.

Looking at his numbers doesn't really tell me how he runs the ball.

He seems very hit or miss and is obviously behind DWill until end of 2010.

Why is he so high in dynasty rankings?

Thanks!

People have mentioned Steven Jackson twice already, and that's because Jackson is the best physical comp in the league today, although Stewart is actually a significantly better specimen, believe it or not. Here are their combine numbers:Jackson- 6'2", 231lb

Stewart- 5'10", 235lb

Jackson- 4.55 40 yard dash

Stewart- 4.46 40 yard dash

Jackson- 9'10" Broad Jump

Stewart- 10'8" Broad Jump

Jackson- 37.5" Vertical

Stewart- 36.5" Vertical

As you can see, despite being more massive (4 pounds heavier *AND* 4 inches shorter), Stewart ran the 40 almost a full tenth of a second faster, and had 10" more on his broad jump (although Jackson's vertical was an inch higher). When you watch Steven Jackson play and you watch how physically dominant he is over his peers, you have to realize that Stewart is potentially even MORE dominant. He's arguably the best physical specimen to ever enter the league at the RB position. Ever. We're talking off-the-charts upside potential, here. And this isn't a Matt Jones situation, where he's all potential with nothing to show for it- he's been extremely effective so far in his career in limited action. He's averaging 4.6 career ypc, and he's been very effective in short yardage situations. He runs with power and authority, and he has one of the filthiest stiff arms I have ever seen. When he gets a starting job all to himself, I fully expect him to produce in the MJD/ADP/CJ3/SJax tier. Worst case scenario, he finds himself in the Gore/Williams/Turner tier.

What would you be willing to give up at the very most to get him? What's his maximum buy value, where at some point you say "I won't go any higher than this".I've been trying to obtain him for over a month from one owner, but I haven't been willing to give up much more than a 2010 late first and late second rounder for him. (10 team)

Am I not assigning enough value to him or am I in the ballpark?

4 weeks ago just before our trade deadline, I made my move to get Stewart. Many feel I overpaid, but I'm happy with the deal and the previous owner of Stewart highly valued him as well. Many of the examples I've seen listed here are good "buy lows" on him and others, but this may help you see what others are willing to pay for him.I moved Turner and Britt for Stewart and Roddy.

To the owner above who has offered a late 2010 first and a second, No, that is not anywhere near enough. I own Stewart and used the 1.02 to get him. I would have taken him 1.01 over McFadden and some Stewart owners probably did. Since being the league he hasn't made me think he can't produce like a 1.01 would be expected to produce either--he has had limited opportunity but most Stewart owners realize that he is in a time share and are waiting. His injuries concern me somewhat but on the other hand he hasn't missed a game--and being able to play hurt is key because RBs are always hurt. So, it would take at least two first round picks for me to consider trading him or a late first and another very good player.

 

[thriftyrocker]

What do others think about Ahmad Bradshaw? He's been dropping a bit in F&L's rankings. He will likely try to play this week. He has seemed like the Giants' best back this year. I see him as a good buy low for next year. Is anyone with me?

 

[az_prof]

What do others think about Ahmad Bradshaw? He's been dropping a bit in F&L's rankings. He will likely try to play this week. He has seemed like the Giants' best back this year. I see him as a good buy low for next year. Is anyone with me?

I own him and can't decide if he is a buy or sell right now. I have watched the Giants quite a bit this year and to me Bradshaw when he was healthy (before the last three weeks) looked like the best back on the team and one of the best in the league. He really does everything well, even short yardage. But the injury thing scares me and also the uncertainy of what the Giants will do long term. Personally, I would trade him for a late first round pick. I wouldn't trade him for a second round pick. But if I were you and wanted him I think I would wait to acquire him until the offseason, just before the rookie draft. At that time rookie picks are more valuable. If Bradshaw has off season surgery or doesn't play much down the stretch here because of the injury, you might be able to get him just before the draft for a second round pick. And, I don't expect him to do much for the team during the FF playoffs because the injury doesn't seem like one that will go away quickly.

 

[lyon812]

What would you be willing to give up at the very most to get him? What's his maximum buy value, where at some point you say "I won't go any higher than this".I've been trying to obtain him for over a month from one owner, but I haven't been willing to give up much more than a 2010 late first and late second rounder for him. (10 team)Am I not assigning enough value to him or am I in the ballpark?

I tried for Stewart in two leagues. Success: I traded Turner and Eli Manning for Stewart and Romo in one league. This was working out quite well for both of us until Turner's injury. Failure: I offered Moreno + 1st round pick. He rebuffed with Stewart, Hasselbeck, and Ward for Moreno, Ryan, Colston, and a 1st. I obviously declined. Moral: You might be able to acquire him from a team in win-now mode for a player that will indeed help them win now, such as Turner. However, making a win-later proposal probably won't move Stewart, because they're already waiting for him. What value are draft picks, when Stewart has demonstrated success and the picks are just as likely to bust as succeed?

 

[benm3218]

What would you be willing to give up at the very most to get him? What's his maximum buy value, where at some point you say "I won't go any higher than this".

I've been trying to obtain him for over a month from one owner, but I haven't been willing to give up much more than a 2010 late first and late second rounder for him. (10 team)

Am I not assigning enough value to him or am I in the ballpark?

I tried for Stewart in two leagues. Success: I traded Turner and Eli Manning for Stewart and Romo in one league. This was working out quite well for both of us until Turner's injury.

Failure: I offered Moreno + 1st round pick. He rebuffed with Stewart, Hasselbeck, and Ward for Moreno, Ryan, Colston, and a 1st. I obviously declined.

Moral: You might be able to acquire him from a team in win-now mode for a player that will indeed help them win now, such as Turner. However, making a win-later proposal probably won't move Stewart, because they're already waiting for him. What value are draft picks, when Stewart has demonstrated success and the picks are just as likely to bust as succeed?

 

[thevidon]

To the owner above who has offered a late 2010 first and a second, No, that is not anywhere near enough. I own Stewart and used the 1.02 to get him. I would have taken him 1.01 over McFadden and some Stewart owners probably did. Since being the league he hasn't made me think he can't produce like a 1.01 would be expected to produce either--he has had limited opportunity but most Stewart owners realize that he is in a time share and are waiting. His injuries concern me somewhat but on the other hand he hasn't missed a game--and being able to play hurt is key because RBs are always hurt. So, it would take at least two first round picks for me to consider trading him or a late first and another very good player.

I like Stewart, and right now a late first is not enough of a starting point for him in negotiations. I had him as RB2 when he came out (behind Mendenhall) and still think he can be top 10. I would think packaging a late first along with another RB like Steve Slaton or Kevin Smith would be a great place to start the talks.

 

[SSOG]

What would you be willing to give up at the very most to get him? What's his maximum buy value, where at some point you say "I won't go any higher than this".

I've been trying to obtain him for over a month from one owner, but I haven't been willing to give up much more than a 2010 late first and late second rounder for him. (10 team)

Am I not assigning enough value to him or am I in the ballpark?

Not anywhere near the ballpark. I would give up the #1 overall rookie draft pick for Stewart without hesitating. And I'd consider it a steal. In terms of draft picks, I'd trade a pair of firsts with at least one of them being a very high first.Look at it this way: who is the best RB in the draft this year? Best? Spiller? Dwyer? Personally, I'm a big fan of Spiller, so we'll assume that when rookie drafts roll around, he's a consensus top-2 draft pick (I say top 2 because Dez Bryant should be the consensus #1). Is Jonathan Stewart worth more than C.J. Spiller? ABSOLUTELY- by a massive margin. Both RBs are 22 years old (yes, believe it or not, despite being in the league for two years Stewart is still as young as many of the incoming rookies next year). Spiller is really fast and I expect him to put up some decent combine numbers, but there's no way in hell he matches Stewart's measurables. Spiller's a bigger bust risk because Stewart has already demonstrated himself an NFL-caliber RB. So, in other words, Stewart is the same age, has dramatically more upside, and he has a significantly higher floor, to boot. He's across the board better than a guy who's a likely top-3 rookie draft pick. Best and Dwyer have similar flaws. Jon Stewart is a SUBSTANTIALLY better investment than any rookie RB coming in next year.

4 weeks ago just before our trade deadline, I made my move to get Stewart. Many feel I overpaid, but I'm happy with the deal and the previous owner of Stewart highly valued him as well. Many of the examples I've seen listed here are good "buy lows" on him and others, but this may help you see what others are willing to pay for him.

I moved Turner and Britt for Stewart and Roddy.

I don't view that as overpaying at all. In fact, I consider that a steal. I actually prefer Roddy to Turner straight up, and while Britt looks really good, it's clear that Stewart is significantly more valuable.

I own him and can't decide if he is a buy or sell right now. I have watched the Giants quite a bit this year and to me Bradshaw when he was healthy (before the last three weeks) looked like the best back on the team and one of the best in the league. He really does everything well, even short yardage. But the injury thing scares me and also the uncertainy of what the Giants will do long term. Personally, I would trade him for a late first round pick. I wouldn't trade him for a second round pick. But if I were you and wanted him I think I would wait to acquire him until the offseason, just before the rookie draft. At that time rookie picks are more valuable. If Bradshaw has off season surgery or doesn't play much down the stretch here because of the injury, you might be able to get him just before the draft for a second round pick. And, I don't expect him to do much for the team during the FF playoffs because the injury doesn't seem like one that will go away quickly.

The bolded is the perfect example of why first round picks outside of the top 3-5 (depending on the year) are overrated, and you're almost always better off trading them than using them. What's the difference between pick #12 and pick #13 in practical terms? Pretty much nothing. What's the difference in terms of perception and trade value? Pretty much everything.

 

[GreatLakesMike]

Marshall's getting the ball fine, but he's having his worst year right now, and his value has absolutely dropped since Kyle came on board.

Marshall himself had more to do with his value dropping than Kyle Orton. Run-ins with the law, domestic abuse, poor attitude, etc. etc.

 

[GreatLakesMike]

Better young D/ST for Dynasty purposes, Cincinnati or San Francisco? (and "why" always helps!)

I can't speak for San Fran, but the Bengals have a relatively young and talented core to their defense, especially at LB and CB.Edit: The Bengals 2 deep is not exactly ancient either. SS Chinedum Ndukwe FS Chris Crocker LDE Robert Geathers LDT Domata Peko RDT Tank Johnson RDE Jonathan Fanene OLB1 Rey Maualuga OLB2 Keith Rivers MLB Dhani Jones RCB Leon Hall LCB Johnathan Joseph

 

[GreatLakesMike]

No offense to anyone, but some of the deals you guys have mentioned are not exactly great examples of how to run a dynasty team. They're just examples of taking advantage of stupid owners. If I offered Garcon and Forsett for Stewart, I'd probably put a serious dent in my future trade relations with the Stewart owner. Trying to take advantage of people is not a good strategy.

 

[GreatLakesMike]

What do others think about Ahmad Bradshaw? He's been dropping a bit in F&L's rankings. He will likely try to play this week. He has seemed like the Giants' best back this year. I see him as a good buy low for next year. Is anyone with me?

I own Bradshaw in all my leagues, but I picked him up a few years as a free agent, so I don't exactly have a lot vested in him. I do agree that Bradshaw is a good buy low. I think the Giants have to either make him the full time back at the end of his contract, or he's moving on. Bradshaw is small and compact with decent speed, and surprisingly good power. I've watched Bradshaw carry guys for 5 yards and move the pile a ton. He's like a bowling ball. Bradshaw is banged up right now, but for dynasty purposes, he's a great guy to stash and use as depth until his contract runs out. Bradshaw is very talented IMO. He needs to work on his pass catching skills, but as far as running the ball, he's as pure as they come.Bradshaw's contract details:7/24/2007: Signed a four-year, $1.7 million contract. The deal included a $37,000 signing bonus. 2009: $460,000, 2010: $550,000, 2011: Free Agent

I own him and can't decide if he is a buy or sell right now. I have watched the Giants quite a bit this year and to me Bradshaw when he was healthy (before the last three weeks) looked like the best back on the team and one of the best in the league. He really does everything well, even short yardage. But the injury thing scares me and also the uncertainy of what the Giants will do long term. Personally, I would trade him for a late first round pick. I wouldn't trade him for a second round pick. But if I were you and wanted him I think I would wait to acquire him until the offseason, just before the rookie draft. At that time rookie picks are more valuable. If Bradshaw has off season surgery or doesn't play much down the stretch here because of the injury, you might be able to get him just before the draft for a second round pick. And, I don't expect him to do much for the team during the FF playoffs because the injury doesn't seem like one that will go away quickly.

I'd trade a late 1st for Bradshaw in a heartbeat, but no way I trade him for a late 2010 1st round pick.

 

[Whiplash Inc.]

What would you be willing to give up at the very most to get him? What's his maximum buy value, where at some point you say "I won't go any higher than this".I've been trying to obtain him for over a month from one owner, but I haven't been willing to give up much more than a 2010 late first and late second rounder for him. (10 team)Am I not assigning enough value to him or am I in the ballpark?

Not anywhere near the ballpark. I would give up the #1 overall rookie draft pick for Stewart without hesitating. And I'd consider it a steal. In terms of draft picks, I'd trade a pair of firsts with at least one of them being a very high first.Look at it this way: who is the best RB in the draft this year? Best? Spiller? Dwyer? Personally, I'm a big fan of Spiller, so we'll assume that when rookie drafts roll around, he's a consensus top-2 draft pick (I say top 2 because Dez Bryant should be the consensus #1). Is Jonathan Stewart worth more than C.J. Spiller? ABSOLUTELY- by a massive margin. Both RBs are 22 years old (yes, believe it or not, despite being in the league for two years Stewart is still as young as many of the incoming rookies next year). Spiller is really fast and I expect him to put up some decent combine numbers, but there's no way in hell he matches Stewart's measurables. Spiller's a bigger bust risk because Stewart has already demonstrated himself an NFL-caliber RB. So, in other words, Stewart is the same age, has dramatically more upside, and he has a significantly higher floor, to boot. He's across the board better than a guy who's a likely top-3 rookie draft pick. Best and Dwyer have similar flaws. Jon Stewart is a SUBSTANTIALLY better investment than any rookie RB coming in next year.

What time frame do you have in mind for him putting up the numbers worth that kind of compensation?

 

[SSOG]

No offense to anyone, but some of the deals you guys have mentioned are not exactly great examples of how to run a dynasty team. They're just examples of taking advantage of stupid owners. If I offered Garcon and Forsett for Stewart, I'd probably put a serious dent in my future trade relations with the Stewart owner. Trying to take advantage of people is not a good strategy.

Eh, it depends. The saying goes that you can shear a sheep many times, but only slaughter it once... but, on the other hand, if you've built up a solid reputation, most guys won't hold a huge trade like that against you. They're in charge of their own team, and if they hadn't sold him to you for peanuts, they probably would have just sold him to someone else, instead.I make a point of not being the guy who opens trade talks with ridiculous offers (Fred Jackson and Steve Smith North for Calvin Johnson!), and I also make a point of being very up front about my interest in players, explaining why I like them rather than trying to "steal" then or pull a fast one. If, two years later, the trade looks lopsided in my favor... well, I told them why I wanted to make it, and they can't fault me for being right. Obviously I made the trade in the first place thinking I was right.

What time frame do you have in mind for him putting up the numbers worth that kind of compensation?

No time frame. He might be starting in two years, he might be starting in three. Heck, Williams might get hurt or traded, and he might wind up starting as soon as next year. The when isn't as important to me as the what.Besides, it's not like he's useless in the meantime. He still makes a fantastic fantasy RB3 while you're waiting on him. Last year, he was RB24. So far this year, he's RB26. Also, it's not like any rookie RB will be a lock to produce any sooner than Stewart does, anyway. So far this year, Stewart has outscored every rookie RB except for Moreno, who is just barely ahead of Stewart (RB23 compared to RB26).

 

[valhallan]

No offense to anyone, but some of the deals you guys have mentioned are not exactly great examples of how to run a dynasty team. They're just examples of taking advantage of stupid owners. If I offered Garcon and Forsett for Stewart, I'd probably put a serious dent in my future trade relations with the Stewart owner. Trying to take advantage of people is not a good strategy.

It wasn't just Garcon and Forsett for Stewart in a vacuum - of course they're not worth Stewart by themselves. He looked at the other guy's roster and guessed that he may be itching for a starting RB and WR3, so he tossed out an offer:

That said I have coveted him in our dynasty/salary cap league for quite some time. Just waiting for the right time to make an offer. The guy who had him was in a dog fight for first when Cedric Benson went down. His other weakness was WR3. At this time Justin Forsett had just gone off after the JJ injury. I offered him Forsett and P. Garcon for Stew. He said YES!

That is GREAT dynasty strategy. It wasn't perceived as a lowball offer, it was perceived as "damn, I could use a starting RB and promising WR3". Down the road, that guy won't hold it against Football Daddy. He'll simply say, yeah that wasn't worth it. No bridges burnt, just a lesson learned for that guy.

 

[GreatLakesMike]

No offense to anyone, but some of the deals you guys have mentioned are not exactly great examples of how to run a dynasty team. They're just examples of taking advantage of stupid owners. If I offered Garcon and Forsett for Stewart, I'd probably put a serious dent in my future trade relations with the Stewart owner. Trying to take advantage of people is not a good strategy.

Eh, it depends. The saying goes that you can shear a sheep many times, but only slaughter it once... but, on the other hand, if you've built up a solid reputation, most guys won't hold a huge trade like that against you. They're in charge of their own team, and if they hadn't sold him to you for peanuts, they probably would have just sold him to someone else, instead.

I've sheared a few sheeps.... never butchered one, but I've sent a few hogs and cattle to be butchered.... Anyway, I'd need a very, very, very good reputation in my league before I offered a Garcon and Forsett for Stewart. To each his own, but I just don't think trying to take advantage of other owners, or just plain offering bad deals, is a good way to run a dynasty team. More often than not, leagues where trades like this happen, are short. Just saying...

 

[bweiser]

i realize he's not in his first or second year, but what do you think of carson palmer going forward in a dynasty/keeper league? he'd be QB2 for me behind Schaub in a can start 2 QBs league. i'm striking out on getting a younger guy but palmer is only 29 IIRC. he's had some big seasons, had some injuries and now the team is falling into a run first, run second approach.

can he regain top 10ish numbers?

 

[Fear & Loathing]

No offense to anyone, but some of the deals you guys have mentioned are not exactly great examples of how to run a dynasty team. They're just examples of taking advantage of stupid owners. If I offered Garcon and Forsett for Stewart, I'd probably put a serious dent in my future trade relations with the Stewart owner. Trying to take advantage of people is not a good strategy.

Thank you. I'm glad I didn't have to bring it up. How to run a Dynasty team and how to rip off the schmuck owner in your league are different questions altogether.

And this quote: "Trying to take advantage of people is not a good strategy" is money.

Never try to take advantage of another owner. That is weak sauce. You can make a trade that is beneficial to both sides without trying to "win" the trade. I like this better: "Win the league, not the trade."

 

[Fear & Loathing]

I've sheared a few sheeps.... never butchered one, but I've sent a few hogs and cattle to be butchered.... Anyway, I'd need a very, very, very good reputation in my league before I offered a Garcon and Forsett for Stewart. To each his own, but I just don't think trying to take advantage of other owners, or just plain offering bad deals, is a good way to run a dynasty team. More often than not, leagues where trades like this happen, are short. Just saying...

Again, . I love this GreatLakesMike guy. Stick around.Trying to shear sheep is for young punks. You guys will learn that the real reward is flying the championship banner without taking advantage of any other owner. Call me a cad, but I enjoy trying to help the bottom half of the league reach their epiphany while building their rosters up.

 

[bweiser]

i realize he's not in his first or second year, but what do you think of carson palmer going forward in a dynasty/keeper league? he'd be QB2 for me behind Schaub in a can start 2 QBs league. i'm striking out on getting a younger guy but palmer is only 29 IIRC. he's had some big seasons, had some injuries and now the team is falling into a run first, run second approach. can he regain top 10ish numbers?

anyone?

 

[BespokeJort]

No offense to anyone, but some of the deals you guys have mentioned are not exactly great examples of how to run a dynasty team. They're just examples of taking advantage of stupid owners. If I offered Garcon and Forsett for Stewart, I'd probably put a serious dent in my future trade relations with the Stewart owner. Trying to take advantage of people is not a good strategy.

Thank you. I'm glad I didn't have to bring it up. How to run a Dynasty team and how to rip off the schmuck owner in your league are different questions altogether.

And this quote: "Trying to take advantage of people is not a good strategy" is money.

Never try to take advantage of another owner. That is weak sauce. You can make a trade that is beneficial to both sides without trying to "win" the trade. I like this better: "Win the league, not the trade."

I've sheared a few sheeps.... never butchered one, but I've sent a few hogs and cattle to be butchered....

Anyway, I'd need a very, very, very good reputation in my league before I offered a Garcon and Forsett for Stewart. To each his own, but I just don't think trying to take advantage of other owners, or just plain offering bad deals, is a good way to run a dynasty team. More often than not, leagues where trades like this happen, are short. Just saying...

Again, . I love this GreatLakesMike guy. Stick around.Trying to shear sheep is for young punks. You guys will learn that the real reward is flying the championship banner without taking advantage of any other owner. Call me a cad, but I enjoy trying to help the bottom half of the league reach their epiphany while building their rosters up.

I agree with these sentiments in general, but I'm not really sure where something ceases to be a buy low/sell high situation and begins to become shearing/butchering/etc? I've always been someone who blames myself rather than any sinister intent of the other owner when I get the bad side of a trade (barring anything really shady like trading a guy who turns out to be injured before it's common knowledge or something of that sort), so I'm curious for others where the line is drawn

 

[BigJim®]

I've sheared a few sheeps.... never butchered one, but I've sent a few hogs and cattle to be butchered.... Anyway, I'd need a very, very, very good reputation in my league before I offered a Garcon and Forsett for Stewart. To each his own, but I just don't think trying to take advantage of other owners, or just plain offering bad deals, is a good way to run a dynasty team. More often than not, leagues where trades like this happen, are short. Just saying...

Again, . I love this GreatLakesMike guy. Stick around.Trying to shear sheep is for young punks. You guys will learn that the real reward is flying the championship banner without taking advantage of any other owner. Call me a cad, but I enjoy trying to help the bottom half of the league reach their epiphany while building their rosters up.

I'm not following this. Whether you are the team that shears the sheep or you sit on the sidelines while others shave him bald repeatedly, I'd take very little solace in the integrity of my inaction. I've jumped at offers some might call dubious but if it wasn't me, it would be one of my competitors. I'm just saying this is great in theory but nowhere near resolving the problem unless you play with 10 other saints. The real problem is the sheep owner, no?Secondarily, near as I can tell 80% of the initial offers I get are lowball feelers, hoping for a counter. Trust me, that's not because they think I'm a sheep. There was another thread on this somewhere but it's a fact most FFers won't initiate with their best offer, and the first one is often ridiculously weak. Ooops the guy accepted it.... that's not taking advantage, it is a dumb owner not countering an initial offer.

 

[munchkin]

I want to speak to the whole trading thing from the standpoint of sheer logistics. What is really to be gained from knowingly screwing another owner? If you are in a league where you have to continually bring in new blood because the less developed teams with new owners don't get a chance to grow, and learn, then what is the point? I wouldn't want to bring a friend into a league if I knew the other owners were prone to engage in sketchy practices. I mean, what fun is that?

I tend to be my own worst enemy any way.

 

[BigJim®]

What is really to be gained from knowingly screwing another owner? If you are in a league where you have to continually bring in new blood because the less developed teams with new owners don't get a chance to grow, and learn, then what is the point? I wouldn't want to bring a friend into a league if I knew the other owners were prone to engage in sketchy practices. I mean, what fun is that?

See I'm just not following this. By 'engaging in sketchy practices' you mean making a lowball offer [which everyone does] or immediately accepting a windfall offer that anyone else in your league would immediately accept if offered? The problem isn't the 11 sharks in your pool, it's the sheep who fell in.

 

[Football Daddy]

No offense to anyone, but some of the deals you guys have mentioned are not exactly great examples of how to run a dynasty team. They're just examples of taking advantage of stupid owners. If I offered Garcon and Forsett for Stewart, I'd probably put a serious dent in my future trade relations with the Stewart owner. Trying to take advantage of people is not a good strategy.

No offense taken. Truly. I get your point and agree with it. I like the win-win trades myself. Never good to go into a potential trade with the owner looking at you suspiciously like he is trying to figure out what shenanigan's you are up to based on your reputation of fleecing previous owners. In the Forsett-Garcon for Stewart trade, the owner is competent and for the first time in our 16 year league history, he has a chance to win it all. In total points and head to head. Since the trade he has won all three of his games and now has won the head to head and expects a first round bye. He is beaming. It truly was an "I want to win now at nearly all costs" trade for him. Plus, he really likes Forsett and especially Garcon's upside. Me, I am rebuiliding. So its just a case of timing evening out a trade that if it was purely objectively assessed, would be one-sided.Just felt the need to clarify. I do agree in general with the win-win strategy. Also believe leverage can be obtained in trades where an owner who wants to win now will give up the future to make that happen.

 

[valhallan]

I think the soapbox was wheeled out a bit early. The discussion was about finding opportunities by looking at another owners roster, injuries, and season outlook and the Stewart trade was only an example. If the owner needs help to win now, how is that not an impetus to trade? He's going to do it with someone. In fact, Forsett has scored 20+ in three straight weeks and Garcon 14+ over the same period - those points could easily have been the difference between winning and losing in a playoff push. (Edit: I see Football Daddy has outlined exactly that above)

For all of the praise we heap on Stewart, there are legitimate reasons why an owner would trade him. He's not starting now, his situation even next year is still unclear, and he's had some injuries. These are also reasons why he's constantly listed as a "buy".

I certainly believe a dynasty league is only as strong as its weakest owners. Cycling owners as a result of poor decisions is a nightmare. However, I also believe very, very few understand the dynamics of roster management right out of the gate. The fact that veteran RBs can fall off a cliff and the wild card potential of young WRs are some hard lessons we've all had to swallow. In my oldest dynasty, there are countless trades and waiver moves we look back on and laugh about how they turned out. However, the reason we have 12 strong owners now is not that a Garcon/Forsett for Stewart trade never happened (several did), it's because the guys who were not willing to learn from mistakes have left and the guys that were determined to learn have stayed and built their franchises.