Dynasty Rankings (2 Viewers)

[todisco1]

What WR do you guys think has the most value in PPR:

S. Smith Car- elite talent and has already produced with sub par QB play, a lot of up and down play mostly due to QB's

Boldin- also elite talent and would have to think he gets traded, without knowing where he goes I would think his value is down due to injury concerns and unknown destination

Bowe- seemed like a top young WR going into this year, is he more like the 2009 Bowe or still a great young WR with plenty of upside

To me that is Steve Smith easy. On talent alone, he blows the other two out of the water. As you say he has always produced with crap at QB, if he even gets any improvement at the QB position his value will jump big time.

He hasn't *always* produced, he's gone through some dry spells. Last season when Delhomme was starting there was a period when he was almost unstartable.

Does "last year" = 2008? Or 2009?If it's 2008, your statement is wrong. Smith was the only WR to average 100 yards a game. He was dominant.

If it's 2009, it falls under the "crap at QB" umbrella because Delhomme was the definition of "crap at QB" all season.

I was talking about 2009. The post I was responding to said "he has always produced with crap at QB", which isn't quite true. He had several pretty awful weeks in '09. IIRC he had two games with only 1 catch and a couple with 30 odd yards. I'm not saying he isn't great, just that he isn't a "lock" to perform if the QB is horrid.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

What WR do you guys think has the most value in PPR:

S. Smith Car- elite talent and has already produced with sub par QB play, a lot of up and down play mostly due to QB's

Boldin- also elite talent and would have to think he gets traded, without knowing where he goes I would think his value is down due to injury concerns and unknown destination

Bowe- seemed like a top young WR going into this year, is he more like the 2009 Bowe or still a great young WR with plenty of upside

To me that is Steve Smith easy. On talent alone, he blows the other two out of the water. As you say he has always produced with crap at QB, if he even gets any improvement at the QB position his value will jump big time.

He hasn't *always* produced, he's gone through some dry spells. Last season when Delhomme was starting there was a period when he was almost unstartable.

Does "last year" = 2008? Or 2009?If it's 2008, your statement is wrong. Smith was the only WR to average 100 yards a game. He was dominant.

If it's 2009, it falls under the "crap at QB" umbrella because Delhomme was the definition of "crap at QB" all season.

I was talking about 2009. The post I was responding to said "he has always produced with crap at QB", which isn't quite true. He had several pretty awful weeks in '09. IIRC he had two games with only 1 catch and a couple with 30 odd yards. I'm not saying he isn't great, just that he isn't a "lock" to perform if the QB is horrid.

Yeah, you're right. He has not produced with crappy QBs. Certainly no "lock."Of course, no WR would have produced with the QBs he's had throwing to him, i.e. Weinke, 44-year-old Vinny, and '09 Delhomme.

 

[EBF]

Problem with Smith is that he's 31 years old and he'll likely be working with a project QB next season. His game is all about speed because his frame is too small to make him an effective possession guy. What happens when he loses a step? The big plays disappear and his value plummets. Given the fact that he's an old WR with suspect long term potential and suspect short term potential (unless they find a QB who can get him the ball), I don't like him much in dynasty. He was recently offered to me along with a heap of mediocre draft picks and Lee Evans for Calvin Johnson. It was pretty easy to turn that one down.

In his prime he was a dynamic talent capable of putting up monster stats. The problem is that his situation has always been crap and he probably won't stick around long enough for it to improve (unless he ages like Galloway or TO). Add in the fact that he's undersized and reliant on home runs for TDs, and I don't like him that much as a core member of my dynasty team. I've always thought of him as a slightly better, more overrated version of Santana Moss.

I would suggest trading him if you could get an elite player in return, but his age will scare people. I've been trying to move Randy Moss in one of my dynasty leagues and it's apparent that no one really wants him. I had straight up offers rejected for Jennings, Crabtree, and White by three different owners. People don't want to pay a premium for a 30+ year old player, even if he's elite. I've realized that I'm just going to have to keep Randy and hope he maintains a high level of production for a few years. I think Steve Smith owners will have to do the same.

 

[Couch Potato]

Problem with Smith is that he's 31 years old and he'll likely be working with a project QB next season. His game is all about speed because his frame is too small to make him an effective possession guy. What happens when he loses a step? The big plays disappear and his value plummets. Given the fact that he's an old WR with suspect long term potential and suspect short term potential (unless they find a QB who can get him the ball), I don't like him much in dynasty. He was recently offered to me along with a heap of mediocre draft picks and Lee Evans for Calvin Johnson. It was pretty easy to turn that one down.

I'd be very surprised if they didn't go into Week 1 with Moore as QB1 and Delhomme as QB2. If by project QB you mean Moore, I'm not so sure he's going to be a liability for Smith. I think he showed enough down the stretch for there to be a decent comfort level that he can get Smith the ball.

 

[EBF]

Moore played pretty well down the stretch, but remains a bit of a wild card. I like what he did against the Vikings and Giants. I also like the attitude he brings to the offense. I think he has a chance to be successful, but there's a whole range of potential outcomes. He could be Tony Romo. He could be Trent Edwards. He could Derek Anderson. It's too early to reach a verdict.

Either way, Smith is a 31 year old athlete reliant on speed. Elite sprinters typically start to slow down right at about 30-33. I think we can expect roughly 1-3 more good years from Smith. He's a stronger redraft option than dynasty option because he's so close to the end of his peak.

 

[n20]

Moore played pretty well down the stretch, but remains a bit of a wild card. I like what he did against the Vikings and Giants. I also like the attitude he brings to the offense. I think he has a chance to be successful, but there's a whole range of potential outcomes. He could be Tony Romo. He could be Trent Edwards. He could Derek Anderson. It's too early to reach a verdict. Either way, Smith is a 31 year old athlete reliant on speed. Elite sprinters typically start to slow down right at about 30-33. I think we can expect roughly 1-3 more good years from Smith. He's a stronger redraft option than dynasty option because he's so close to the end of his peak.

Agreed. Moss comes to mind as another speedster who should have maybe one year of great production left at which point we should see him slow down. Literally. That makes him one of the biggest WR sells in my mind.

 

[Couch Potato]

Moore played pretty well down the stretch, but remains a bit of a wild card. I like what he did against the Vikings and Giants. I also like the attitude he brings to the offense. I think he has a chance to be successful, but there's a whole range of potential outcomes. He could be Tony Romo. He could be Trent Edwards. He could Derek Anderson. It's too early to reach a verdict. Either way, Smith is a 31 year old athlete reliant on speed. Elite sprinters typically start to slow down right at about 30-33. I think we can expect roughly 1-3 more good years from Smith. He's a stronger redraft option than dynasty option because he's so close to the end of his peak.

Note that my endorsement of Moore was lukewarm. My point was primarily that he'd be the starter, not Delhorrible or an outside guy brought in. It's not typically Fox's way to make big changes in a hurry.And I tend to agree with your point that moving Smith at this point might not be a bad idea, all things considered, if appropriate value can be obtained. I dealt him for the 1.03 rookie pick in one league about a week ago, and as long as I draft well this trade should be a win for me in the long run.

 

[EBF]

Moore played pretty well down the stretch, but remains a bit of a wild card. I like what he did against the Vikings and Giants. I also like the attitude he brings to the offense. I think he has a chance to be successful, but there's a whole range of potential outcomes. He could be Tony Romo. He could be Trent Edwards. He could Derek Anderson. It's too early to reach a verdict. Either way, Smith is a 31 year old athlete reliant on speed. Elite sprinters typically start to slow down right at about 30-33. I think we can expect roughly 1-3 more good years from Smith. He's a stronger redraft option than dynasty option because he's so close to the end of his peak.

Agreed. Moss comes to mind as another speedster who should have maybe one year of great production left at which point we should see him slow down. Literally. That makes him one of the biggest WR sells in my mind.

Agreed, but if you're talking about Randy, he has something that Santana and S. Smith both lack: size. He can win jump balls and score cheap TDs in the red zone because of his height. This leads me to believe that a decline of pure speed/burst would be less catastrophic for him. I still think you should sell him if you can get an elite player in return, but as I mentioned earlier owners aren't really willing to trade an elite player straight up for Randy (even if they rank him high in lists, they won't pull the trigger with an actual deal sitting on front of them). Old players don't have much trade value in dynasty leagues. If you have some of them on your team, you either have to trade them for someone with a lot of uncertainty (like a pick or an unproven prospect), package them in a combo deal, or keep them until they fade away.

 

[az_prof]

He was obviously over the top in his presentation but his point has some validity.

What's the validity?

Maybe I phrased that incorrectly. His conclusion may be valid, not necessarily his point. Sidney Rice may indeed be a much better player than Miles Austin. Rice was a dominant college player who was drafted early in the second round when he was only 20. He had a very good rookie season and looked primed for a breakout in his second year. Unfortunately, he suffered through injury problems and was reduced to basically a jump ball end zone threat. In his third year he looked like a stud. He has all the tools you would want in an NFL (and FF) WR. He is big, fast, strong, can jump out of the gym, and has great hands. That is the upside.



Miles Austin was an undrafted free agent who did nothing for 3.25 years and then exploded out of no where. You have to at least allow for the possibility he has a bit of Drew Bennett in him. That is the downside.

It could be argued that you will get a lot more attention for your argument that Rice >>>>>>> Austin by prorating Austin's last game out to 16 weeks and saying he will have 500 yards and 0 TDs. Now, I don't necessarily buy that argument, I prefer well reasoned analysis (one of the reasons I come to this thread and read your blog).

It's true he didn't do much in games, but Cowboys fans have been salivating over Miles' athletic ability since he signed with the team. The last three summers he has gotten a lot of praise in camp, he's just always been inconsistent. I still think he struggles to catch the ball at times, he dropped quite a few easy passes this year, and has room to improve. I'm not saying Miles is better than Rice, I honestly don't know if I could rank one above the other, but Austin did not come out of nowhere.

I could care less where Austin came from. I'm not making this judgment after one or two fluke performances or a hot stretch. I'm making it based on his obvious talent after watching him play for the past three months. He's a monster -- possession WR with ideal size, elite of the elite in the open field, and a top red-zone target. Throw in a great offense with an outstanding QB, and he's set up for long-term success.

Miles Austin is the truth.

How about the fact that he is a FA? The history of WRs going to new teams is not generally positive although there are exceptions. Of course, he could resign with Dallas.

 

[az_prof]

Problem with Smith is that he's 31 years old and he'll likely be working with a project QB next season. His game is all about speed because his frame is too small to make him an effective possession guy. What happens when he loses a step? The big plays disappear and his value plummets. Given the fact that he's an old WR with suspect long term potential and suspect short term potential (unless they find a QB who can get him the ball), I don't like him much in dynasty. He was recently offered to me along with a heap of mediocre draft picks and Lee Evans for Calvin Johnson. It was pretty easy to turn that one down. In his prime he was a dynamic talent capable of putting up monster stats. The problem is that his situation has always been crap and he probably won't stick around long enough for it to improve (unless he ages like Galloway or TO). Add in the fact that he's undersized and reliant on home runs for TDs, and I don't like him that much as a core member of my dynasty team. I've always thought of him as a slightly better, more overrated version of Santana Moss. I would suggest trading him if you could get an elite player in return, but his age will scare people. I've been trying to move Randy Moss in one of my dynasty leagues and it's apparent that no one really wants him. I had straight up offers rejected for Jennings, Crabtree, and White by three different owners. People don't want to pay a premium for a 30+ year old player, even if he's elite. I've realized that I'm just going to have to keep Randy and hope he maintains a high level of production for a few years. I think Steve Smith owners will have to do the same.

I agree about Smith's age and the fact that he isn't likely to have a great QB next year either are concerns.Regarding Moss, I think your best bet is to try and trade him for a lower first round pick. I would trade my 1.12 for him and would go as high as 1.08 I think. With your draft knowledge that could still be a valuable pick and the young player you get will more likely hold his value longer than Moss.

 

[EBF]

How about the fact that he is a FA? The history of WRs going to new teams is not generally positive although there are exceptions. Of course, he could resign with Dallas.

Jerry is pretty good about paying his guys. I bet Austin will be back in big D next season. Maybe they'll unload Barber to make room on the payroll.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

How about the fact that he is a FA? The history of WRs going to new teams is not generally positive although there are exceptions. Of course, he could resign with Dallas.

He's a restricted free agent. He's not going anywhere. Jerry Jones said as much this week when he made it clear that he wants to lock up Austin longterm.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Agreed, but if you're talking about Randy, he has something that Santana and S. Smith both lack: size. He can win jump balls and score cheap TDs in the red zone because of his height. This leads me to believe that a decline of pure speed/burst would be less catastrophic for him. I still think you should sell him if you can get an elite player in return, but as I mentioned earlier owners aren't really willing to trade an elite player straight up for Randy (even if they rank him high in lists, they won't pull the trigger with an actual deal sitting on front of them). Old players don't have much trade value in dynasty leagues. If you have some of them on your team, you either have to trade them for someone with a lot of uncertainty (like a pick or an unproven prospect), package them in a combo deal, or keep them until they fade away.

For the record, I think turning down Steve Smith, Lee Evans and prospects for Calvin Johnson is a no-brainer. You don't trade young studs for depth.But when you talk about winning jump balls and scoring cheap TDs in the red zone, Steve Smith is still one of the best in the league. Outside of Larry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson, I'm not sure there's a WR in the league better at coming down with the ball in traffic. Smiff may be relatively short, but he has great strength & leaping ability and uses his body well. I've never thought your Santana Moss comparison held water.

It obviously depends on his going rate in your league. In my league, I'd be looking to buy because I think guys are down on him after Jake Delhomme's bad season. I have no problem buying low with a realistic chance of getting two monster seasons out of him.

 

[EBF]

But when you talk about winning jump balls and scoring cheap TDs in the red zone, Steve Smith is still one of the best in the league. Outside of Larry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson, I'm not sure there's a WR in the league better at coming down with the ball in traffic.

I disagree. He makes some spectacular plays and they're memorable because it's impressive to see a little guy make a tough catch in traffic, but his TD totals don't support the idea that he's a standout jump ball guy. He only has two seasons of 8+ receiving TDs whereas the truly elite big targets like Moss, Owens, Fitzgerald, and Colston achieve that feat more often than not. Even moderately big WRs like Ocho and Wayne have each done it 4-5 times. Size is very overrated at WR, but it's not irrelevant. Little guys have to work harder to get their scores and are generally more reliant on breaking long plays because they can't pull down the red zone jump balls that guys like Sidney Rice, Calvin Johnson, and Larry Fitzgerald can catch with relative ease. This is part of the reason why I think DeSean Jackson is likely to be overrated this offseason. He's a great player and certainly not a fluke, but how often is a 5'9" WR going to score double digit TDs? I'd say not very often. His career average during his prime will probably be in between the 3 TDs he scored as a rookie and the 10 TDs he scored as a sophomore (on the same exact number of catches and fewer carries). Smith is a dynamite talent. I wouldn't argue otherwise, but I don't think his upside is quite on the same plane as the likes of Calvin/Fitz/Moss. I think his size is the main reason for that. Certainly his QB situations haven't helped him either. He would've fared better on a team like the Colts, where smallish WRs can threaten double digit scores because of the Peyton factor.

 

[SSOG]

I would suggest trading him if you could get an elite player in return, but his age will scare people. I've been trying to move Randy Moss in one of my dynasty leagues and it's apparent that no one really wants him. I had straight up offers rejected for Jennings, Crabtree, and White by three different owners. People don't want to pay a premium for a 30+ year old player, even if he's elite. I've realized that I'm just going to have to keep Randy and hope he maintains a high level of production for a few years. I think Steve Smith owners will have to do the same.

I made a point of selling Moss last season, because I knew that unless he went for 20 TDs this year, it would be my last chance to trade him. I got the #2 overall in 2009, a first this year (I figured it'd be high, and it wound up #4 overall), and Tomlinson in exchange for Moss and Lynch.

Either way, Smith is a 31 year old athlete reliant on speed. Elite sprinters typically start to slow down right at about 30-33. I think we can expect roughly 1-3 more good years from Smith. He's a stronger redraft option than dynasty option because he's so close to the end of his peak.

Bill James found that in baseball, athletes who were reliant on their speed actually aged much better than athletes who weren't particular fast to begin with. The reason why is that there's a minimum speed threshold required to play at a professional level, and fast players have speed to spare, so they can lose a step and still exceed the threshold. Players who were barely over the threshold in the first place washed out younger because, once they lost just one step, they were under the threshold and out of the league.

 

[corpcow]

But when you talk about winning jump balls and scoring cheap TDs in the red zone, Steve Smith is still one of the best in the league. Outside of Larry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson, I'm not sure there's a WR in the league better at coming down with the ball in traffic.

I disagree. He makes some spectacular plays and they're memorable because it's impressive to see a little guy make a tough catch in traffic, but his TD totals don't support the idea that he's a standout jump ball guy. He only has two seasons of 8+ receiving TDs whereas the truly elite big targets like Moss, Owens, Fitzgerald, and Colston achieve that feat more often than not. Even moderately big WRs like Ocho and Wayne have each done it 4-5 times. Size is very overrated at WR, but it's not irrelevant. Little guys have to work harder to get their scores and are generally more reliant on breaking long plays because they can't pull down the red zone jump balls that guys like Sidney Rice, Calvin Johnson, and Larry Fitzgerald can catch with relative ease. This is part of the reason why I think DeSean Jackson is likely to be overrated this offseason. He's a great player and certainly not a fluke, but how often is a 5'9" WR going to score double digit TDs? I'd say not very often. His career average during his prime will probably be in between the 3 TDs he scored as a rookie and the 10 TDs he scored as a sophomore (on the same exact number of catches and fewer carries). Smith is a dynamite talent. I wouldn't argue otherwise, but I don't think his upside is quite on the same plane as the likes of Calvin/Fitz/Moss. I think his size is the main reason for that. Certainly his QB situations haven't helped him either. He would've fared better on a team like the Colts, where smallish WRs can threaten double digit scores because of the Peyton factor.

Agreed. With all the Harvin hype, Sidney Rice is the one guy I tried to acquire in every league prior to this year - now it may be too late especially with his 3 TDs last year - but he's got that kind of "tmold to him.If you recall in their comeback against the Bears, they ran the same play twice in a row. The first time it was to Harvin, who just couldn't make the play... next time to Rice, and he brought it down easily. It wasn't a "jump ball", but it was a play where Rice's size definitely gave him an advantage. When push comes to shove, you're going to give the ball to the 6'2" guy with ups, not the 5'9" guy.... which means Harvin and Smith and DeSean may make more "spectacular" plays, but they don't consistently get the "gimmes" which count just as much

 

[Spike]

In regard to Percy Harvin, does anyone else feel any trepidation about his dynasty prospects in light of the migraine issues? They're completely unexplained, at least at this point, and that makes me a bit edgy for his long-term success.

 

[EBF]

Either way, Smith is a 31 year old athlete reliant on speed. Elite sprinters typically start to slow down right at about 30-33. I think we can expect roughly 1-3 more good years from Smith. He's a stronger redraft option than dynasty option because he's so close to the end of his peak.

Bill James found that in baseball, athletes who were reliant on their speed actually aged much better than athletes who weren't particular fast to begin with. The reason why is that there's a minimum speed threshold required to play at a professional level, and fast players have speed to spare, so they can lose a step and still exceed the threshold. Players who were barely over the threshold in the first place washed out younger because, once they lost just one step, they were under the threshold and out of the league.

Not buying it. Different sport requiring a much different skill set, particularly at the edge positions like CB and WR. What makes guys like DeSean Jackson and Steve Smith special is their elite speed/burst. If they lost a step, they would no longer have elite speed and there would no longer be anything special to distinguish them from the legions of mediocre talents (see: L. Tomlinson).

 

[SSOG]

Not buying it. Different sport requiring a much different skill set, particularly at the edge positions like CB and WR. What makes guys like DeSean Jackson and Steve Smith special is their elite speed/burst. If they lost a step, they would no longer have elite speed and there would no longer be anything special to distinguish them from the legions of mediocre talents (see: L. Tomlinson).

Out of curiousity (because I really don't know which set of WRs would age more gracefully), I fired up the Historical Data Dominator and got a list of every WR who ever posted a 1000 yard season at age 34 or older. That produced the following list of 22 names:Jerry Rice - 6'2"Joey Galloway - 5'11" Jimmy Smith - 6'1"Tim Brown - 6'0"Cris Carter - 6'3"Henry Ellard - 5'11"Irving Fryar - 6'0"Drew Hill - 5'9"James Lofton - 6'3"Derrick Mason - 5'10"Terrell Owens - 6'3"Rod Smith - 6'0"Tim Brown - 6'0"Isaac Bruce - 6'0"Donald Driver - 6'0"Bobby Engram - 5'10"Marvin Harrison - 6'0"Charlie Joiner - 5'11"Frank Lewis - 6'1"Tony Martin - 6'0"Art Monk - 6'3"Pete Retzlaff - 6'1"First thing that pops out at me? Only 5 of the 22 guys were 6'2" or taller. Also, of the 22 guys, I'd say that 19 of them were guys who, stereotypically, were more likely to get yards than TDs (the three exceptions: Rice, Owens, and Carter, all 6'2" or taller).Now, obviously just because a guy is 6' or shorter doesn't mean his game is based on speed and acceleration (Bobby Engram, anyone?)... but, with that said, this definitely suggests that things like "size" and "leaping ability" really don't age well. Far and away the majority of the guys who were still producing at 34 were short guys who got a ton of yards and not a lot of TDs. At the very least, I don't see any reason to believe that Smiff is likely to age less gracefully than, say, a Hines Ward, Chad Ochocinco, or Donald Driver.

 

[EBF]

Not buying it. Different sport requiring a much different skill set, particularly at the edge positions like CB and WR. What makes guys like DeSean Jackson and Steve Smith special is their elite speed/burst. If they lost a step, they would no longer have elite speed and there would no longer be anything special to distinguish them from the legions of mediocre talents (see: L. Tomlinson).

Out of curiousity (because I really don't know which set of WRs would age more gracefully), I fired up the Historical Data Dominator and got a list of every WR who ever posted a 1000 yard season at age 34 or older. That produced the following list of 22 names:Jerry Rice - 6'2"Joey Galloway - 5'11" Jimmy Smith - 6'1"Tim Brown - 6'0"Cris Carter - 6'3"Henry Ellard - 5'11"Irving Fryar - 6'0"Drew Hill - 5'9"James Lofton - 6'3"Derrick Mason - 5'10"Terrell Owens - 6'3"Rod Smith - 6'0"Tim Brown - 6'0"Isaac Bruce - 6'0"Donald Driver - 6'0"Bobby Engram - 5'10"Marvin Harrison - 6'0"Charlie Joiner - 5'11"Frank Lewis - 6'1"Tony Martin - 6'0"Art Monk - 6'3"Pete Retzlaff - 6'1"First thing that pops out at me? Only 5 of the 22 guys were 6'2" or taller. Also, of the 22 guys, I'd say that 19 of them were guys who, stereotypically, were more likely to get yards than TDs (the three exceptions: Rice, Owens, and Carter, all 6'2" or taller).Now, obviously just because a guy is 6' or shorter doesn't mean his game is based on speed and acceleration (Bobby Engram, anyone?)... but, with that said, this definitely suggests that things like "size" and "leaping ability" really don't age well. Far and away the majority of the guys who were still producing at 34 were short guys who got a ton of yards and not a lot of TDs. At the very least, I don't see any reason to believe that Smiff is likely to age less gracefully than, say, a Hines Ward, Chad Ochocinco, or Donald Driver.

I'm not sure this data is useful at all.Firstly, the fact that 17 of the 22 WRs who ever posted a 1000 yard season at 34 or older doesn't prove that smaller WRs age better than bigger WRs because it doesn't tell us anything about the starting populations. Maybe they age the same and there were just more good small WRs in the first place. What would be more useful is data showing how good young tall WRs age vs. how good young small WRs age. Just showing that there have been more good old short WRs doesn't tell us anything. There are more 30+ year old NBA players below 7'0" than above. So what? It says nothing about the longevity of tall players vs. the longevity of short players. There are just more short players in the league (where short is a relative term). Secondly, even though there have been some good tall WRs in the past, I'd argue that the big WR is something of a new development in the game of football. Yes, Harold Carmichael had a few good years and there may have been some other guys, but I don't think the trend really took off until Keyshawn/Owens/Moss came along. Moss isn't even 34 yet and most of the best tall WRs in the league aren't even close to that age (Fitz, Marshall, Rice, Colston, Andre). What I'm saying is that there isn't much historical data on old tall WRs because most of the elite tall WRs are still very young. Finally, height only tells you so much about someone's playing style. Anquan Boldin is 6'1". Chad Ochocinco is 6'1". They have the same listed height, but their playing styles are completely different and the reasons they're successful are completely different. There would probably be different consequences for each player if they were to both lose a step. I have my hunches about which body types and playing styles can suffer a drop in speed with minimal consequences. My subjective opinion is that a smurf/speed type like Steve Smith who relies almost entirely on burst/explosiveness will hit a massive wall when he loses a step. In general, I think the WRs who age the best are the medium sized finesse guys like McCardell, R. Smith, Rice, Brown, Driver, Mason, and Bruce who rely more on a combination of route running/frame/craftiness in addition to raw explosiveness. That said, we've also seen some other body types and playing styles age well (Galloway and Owens come to mind). You can never really know exactly how someone will age. Some people can lose a step and remain effective. Some can't. Some people lose a step when they're 30. Other people don't start declining until 33-34. Nevertheless, you can look at all of the data points and try to venture a decent guess. The reason I'm leery of Steve Smith's dynasty prospects is because he's very old by productive NFL WR standards and my subjective opinion is that he can't survive a loss of speed and remain elite. His game is all burst. When that burst goes, there will be nothing special about him.

 

[SSOG]

I'm not sure this data is useful at all.

For whatever it's worth, that makes two of us. That wasn't meant as a magnum opus on the historical aging trends of WRs based on a broad array of physical characteristics, it was mostly meant as an "I've got 10 minutes to kill so let's pull up the historical data dominator and do an off-the-cuff stat check because I'm curious as to what commonalities might exist among WRs who have aged well, because I honestly have no idea".Ideally, I'd calculate Yards:TD ratio of all WRs, compare it to league average, and then find some historical aging patterns based on that data, but that's the kind of project that I only do if my paycheck is contingent on it (and I can't find a way to delegate).

 

[Sinrj]

Moore played pretty well down the stretch, but remains a bit of a wild card. I like what he did against the Vikings and Giants. I also like the attitude he brings to the offense. I think he has a chance to be successful, but there's a whole range of potential outcomes. He could be Tony Romo. He could be Trent Edwards. He could Derek Anderson. It's too early to reach a verdict.

Either way, Smith is a 31 year old athlete reliant on speed. Elite sprinters typically start to slow down right at about 30-33. I think we can expect roughly 1-3 more good years from Smith. He's a stronger redraft option than dynasty option because he's so close to the end of his peak.

Agreed. Moss comes to mind as another speedster who should have maybe one year of great production left at which point we should see him slow down. Literally. That makes him one of the biggest WR sells in my mind.

Agreed, but if you're talking about Randy, he has something that Santana and S. Smith both lack: size. He can win jump balls and score cheap TDs in the red zone because of his height. This leads me to believe that a decline of pure speed/burst would be less catastrophic for him. I still think you should sell him if you can get an elite player in return, but as I mentioned earlier owners aren't really willing to trade an elite player straight up for Randy (even if they rank him high in lists, they won't pull the trigger with an actual deal sitting on front of them). Old players don't have much trade value in dynasty leagues. If you have some of them on your team, you either have to trade them for someone with a lot of uncertainty (like a pick or an unproven prospect), package them in a combo deal, or keep them until they fade away.

Here lies your problem. While you acknowledge Moss declining value you aren't willing to sell for that price. Moss, dynasty wise, is not an elite player anymore.

 

[EBF]

Moore played pretty well down the stretch, but remains a bit of a wild card. I like what he did against the Vikings and Giants. I also like the attitude he brings to the offense. I think he has a chance to be successful, but there's a whole range of potential outcomes. He could be Tony Romo. He could be Trent Edwards. He could Derek Anderson. It's too early to reach a verdict.

Either way, Smith is a 31 year old athlete reliant on speed. Elite sprinters typically start to slow down right at about 30-33. I think we can expect roughly 1-3 more good years from Smith. He's a stronger redraft option than dynasty option because he's so close to the end of his peak.

Agreed. Moss comes to mind as another speedster who should have maybe one year of great production left at which point we should see him slow down. Literally. That makes him one of the biggest WR sells in my mind.

Agreed, but if you're talking about Randy, he has something that Santana and S. Smith both lack: size. He can win jump balls and score cheap TDs in the red zone because of his height. This leads me to believe that a decline of pure speed/burst would be less catastrophic for him. I still think you should sell him if you can get an elite player in return, but as I mentioned earlier owners aren't really willing to trade an elite player straight up for Randy (even if they rank him high in lists, they won't pull the trigger with an actual deal sitting on front of them). Old players don't have much trade value in dynasty leagues. If you have some of them on your team, you either have to trade them for someone with a lot of uncertainty (like a pick or an unproven prospect), package them in a combo deal, or keep them until they fade away.

Here lies your problem. While you acknowledge Moss declining value you aren't willing to sell for that price. Moss, dynasty wise, is not an elite player anymore.

I agree, but you're missing the point to a certain extent. A lot of people still rank him as a top 10 dynasty WR and many people even had him as a top 3-4 dynasty WR entering the season. Despite the fact that people tend to rank him high on their lists, very few people actually consider him an elite player when faced with an offer to acquire him. Here are four offers I sent out that were all rejected (each by a different owner):Moss for Jennings

Moss for Crabtree

Moss for White

Moss for Harvin + 2011 1st

Now obviously I was aiming pretty high. None of the players I tried to get are crappy, but if Moss were truly valued as an elite asset, don't you think at least one of these owners would have pulled the trigger? Moss was the 2nd highest scoring WR in our league and some of these players were not difference makers this past season (Jennings, Crabtree, Harvin).

I don't mean to sound like a crybaby. I would've turned down all of these offers if I had been on the other end. I'm just pointing out the sharp value decline of old players and the fact that dynasty trade value is all about youth. Most people would rather have an elite young WR prospect with no track record (Crabtree) than a 30+ year old surefire HoF veteran coming off a big year (Moss), even if these same people would rank Moss ahead of Crabtree in a vacuum.

In dynasty, people fall in love with the next big thing and are always chasing youth. I've been guilty of it myself. It's just something to remember if you acquire an aging star. Don't expect to be able to flip them 1-2 years later. No one will pay up.

 

[kremenull]

For all of u dynasty diehards, I'm advertising for a new startup in the Looking for Leagues forum. Drafting in March.

Steve Smith aka Smitty aka Smiff is still good to go for another couple of seasons. Hold if you own, buy hyim for an overvalued "comer" like Meachem or Garcon.....

 

[dmac37]

For all of u dynasty diehards, I'm advertising for a new startup in the Looking for Leagues forum. Drafting in March.

Steve Smith aka Smitty aka Smiff is still good to go for another couple of seasons. Hold if you own, buy hyim for an overvalued "comer" like Meachem or Garcon.....

I like Smith as a 2-3 year high ceiling buy low WR but I do not see Garcon as overvalued.IMO Garcon looks to have all the tools to become a #1 WR in FF:

speed-check

size- check

hands-check

passing offense w/ a top QB-check

toughness- check, quoted as running mean and angry once he has the ball

route running- the only unknown for me but the bottom line is he has been able to get himself open

Not sure how high his value is right now but I would guess it will be even higher at this time next year. As good as Wayne is, a young Garcon seems to offer more than a young Wayne did early in his career.

 

[EBF]

Yea, Garcon looks like the real deal.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

Yea, Garcon looks like the real deal.

 

[fsufan]

where are you ranking g. jennings in PPR

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Yea, Garcon looks like the real deal.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

For all of u dynasty diehards, I'm advertising for a new startup in the Looking for Leagues forum. Drafting in March.

Steve Smith aka Smitty aka Smiff is still good to go for another couple of seasons. Hold if you own, buy hyim for an overvalued "comer" like Meachem or Garcon.....

I like Smith as a 2-3 year high ceiling buy low WR but I do not see Garcon as overvalued.IMO Garcon looks to have all the tools to become a #1 WR in FF:

speed-check

size- check

hands-check

passing offense w/ a top QB-check

toughness- check, quoted as running mean and angry once he has the ball

route running- the only unknown for me but the bottom line is he has been able to get himself open

Not sure how high his value is right now but I would guess it will be even higher at this time next year. As good as Wayne is, a young Garcon seems to offer more than a young Wayne did early in his career.

Garcon may have been the most improved player in the league this year. When you consider he went to Mount Union and realize he is just learning how to play against elite competition, it makes what Garcon has done even more impressive. His route running is night and day better than it was at the beginning of the season and figures to improve even more. He definitely has serious skills.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

Yea, Garcon looks like the real deal.

I'll have a double.

 

[Max Power]

On a Colts WR related note...

Anthony Gonzalez. Is he a buy low or has he probably lost the #2WR job?

 

[dmac37]

On a Colts WR related note... Anthony Gonzalez. Is he a buy low or has he probably lost the #2WR job?

The Colts may try and say that Gonzo still has his spot or it's an open competition but I don't see it.Wayne #1Garcon #2Collie and Gonzo battle for the #3/slot position

 

[Mighty Mice]

Regarding Garcon, I agree for the most part. On my rankings for dynasty WRs I have him at #24, right on the cusp of the WR2/WR3 dividing line. The potential to go higher is there, but I have a few issues:

A) I assume (always dangerous) he will be the #2WR for the Colts next year. That still leaves him as option #3 in the passing game behind Wayne and Clark. I feel comfortable in giving Wayne and Clark two more years before they fade significantly or move on. Now, I understand dynasty ranking often look past 2 years down the road. However, I tend to look two years away for all practical purposes. Things change. Quickly.

B) Gonzales and Collie are not slouches. IMO Gonzales could have performed as well (or better) as the WR2 the Colts offense. I feel that if Garcon gets hurt, we will see Collie/Gonzales step in and the offense will click along no differently.

I have him stashed on he bench, but would move him in a package for a good price.

 

[Stewy]

With all of the WR talk, what's the thought on Braylon Edwards going foward? He was up and down since he arrived in NYJ. He's the Jets clear cut number one, but is on a run first team with a young QB. What's his value in a dynsaty league?

 

[benm3218]

Did anyone catch Revis's interview yesterday before the game? He was asked: "Who were the hardest/toughest WR's you had to play all year?"

His response: " I would definitely say Andre Johnson and Steve Smith."

Smith's age and potential QB problems are being way overblown. He is a monster waiting to let loose.

 

[benm3218]

With all of the WR talk, what's the thought on Braylon Edwards going foward? He was up and down since he arrived in NYJ. He's the Jets clear cut number one, but is on a run first team with a young QB. What's his value in a dynsaty league?

I'm not so sure he is their clear cut number 1... Cotchery could be that guy.

 

[Dave Larkin]

With all of the WR talk, what's the thought on Braylon Edwards going foward? He was up and down since he arrived in NYJ. He's the Jets clear cut number one, but is on a run first team with a young QB. What's his value in a dynsaty league?

I'm not so sure he is their clear cut number 1... Cotchery could be that guy.

Cotchery is clearly the receiver Sanchez trusts the most, if you ask me. I lost count of how many key catches he had in the playoff run. He is not an explosive player, so for fantasy football purposes, he is nothing more than a WR3 or flex play. I'm not sure what will happen with Edwards. The whole CBA situation certainly shakes that up a bit. I expect the Jets to place a tender on him (1st and 3rd).

 

[Dave Larkin]

Regarding Garcon, I agree for the most part. On my rankings for dynasty WRs I have him at #24, right on the cusp of the WR2/WR3 dividing line. The potential to go higher is there, but I have a few issues:A) I assume (always dangerous) he will be the #2WR for the Colts next year. That still leaves him as option #3 in the passing game behind Wayne and Clark. I feel comfortable in giving Wayne and Clark two more years before they fade significantly or move on. Now, I understand dynasty ranking often look past 2 years down the road. However, I tend to look two years away for all practical purposes. Things change. Quickly.B) Gonzales and Collie are not slouches. IMO Gonzales could have performed as well (or better) as the WR2 the Colts offense. I feel that if Garcon gets hurt, we will see Collie/Gonzales step in and the offense will click along no differently.I have him stashed on he bench, but would move him in a package for a good price.

What do you think Garcon could fetch in a trade, Mighty Mouse? He's on my roster at the moment and I've received offers for him before.

 

[kremenull]

Quite a bit of Garcon overreaction. Revis shadowing Wayne all day certainly played a part in the big game yesterday lest we forget. Here is the situation in a nutshell. Talented guy (Garcon) for sure, but a lot of competition for targets in the coming seasons and at best he will be the 3rd option for the next few seasons. If I could get Steve Smith (CAR) for Garcon and a 1.09-2.03 rookie pick, I'd jump over a mountain to press "accept".

His immediate future could be that he is pretty darn good next year, but the probability of a stellar, true breakout campaign (e.g., 70+ rec, 1200+ yds, 8+ TDs) is pretty remote, IMO. I think Smiff is pretty much good to go for those numbers, and it's best to play to win not play to look good on paper with the next (potential) young stud dwelling on your roster. SELL HIGH!

 

[munchkin]

On a Colts WR related note... Anthony Gonzalez. Is he a buy low or has he probably lost the #2WR job?

The player out of Garcon/Gonzales and Collie who plays best next training camp/ore-season will be the #2 receiver. I think in all these team situations you go into the new year with a relatively clean slate. Gonzales certainly has to prove he is capable of being inserted into the #2 slot but you can't automatically count him out.

 

[Stewy]

Cotchery is clearly the receiver Sanchez trusts the most, if you ask me. I lost count of how many key catches he had in the playoff run. He is not an explosive player, so for fantasy football purposes, he is nothing more than a WR3 or flex play. I'm not sure what will happen with Edwards. The whole CBA situation certainly shakes that up a bit. I expect the Jets to place a tender on him (1st and 3rd).

It might be a bit presumptuous saying that Edwards is the clear cut #1, but I think it's equally as so to say Cotchery is clearly the receiver Sanchez trusts the most.Since Edwards got to NYJ, aside from the two weeks Cotchery missed, Edwards was targeted more 3 times, Cotchery was targeted more 3 times, and they were targeted the same number of times 4 times. Further, Edwards was targeted 72 times total to Cotchery's 62 total targets.

 

[inzanitee]

Cotchery is clearly the receiver Sanchez trusts the most, if you ask me. I lost count of how many key catches he had in the playoff run. He is not an explosive player, so for fantasy football purposes, he is nothing more than a WR3 or flex play. I'm not sure what will happen with Edwards. The whole CBA situation certainly shakes that up a bit. I expect the Jets to place a tender on him (1st and 3rd).

It might be a bit presumptuous saying that Edwards is the clear cut #1, but I think it's equally as so to say Cotchery is clearly the receiver Sanchez trusts the most.Since Edwards got to NYJ, aside from the two weeks Cotchery missed, Edwards was targeted more 3 times, Cotchery was targeted more 3 times, and they were targeted the same number of times 4 times. Further, Edwards was targeted 72 times total to Cotchery's 62 total targets.

Yeah, but Cotchery *catches* those targets.

 

[FrostBite]

On a Colts WR related note... Anthony Gonzalez. Is he a buy low or has he probably lost the #2WR job?

The player out of Garcon/Gonzales and Collie who plays best next training camp/ore-season will be the #2 receiver. I think in all these team situations you go into the new year with a relatively clean slate. Gonzales certainly has to prove he is capable of being inserted into the #2 slot but you can't automatically count him out.

When Garcon is in the game, teams have to respect the deep ball on his side of the field. That is why he will win the #2 job next year. It opens up Dallas Clark and Austin Collie underneath or deep for that matter. Collies long catch yesterday was because the Safety slid over to help cover Garcon running a streak.

 

[Mighty Mice]

Regarding Garcon, I agree for the most part. On my rankings for dynasty WRs I have him at #24, right on the cusp of the WR2/WR3 dividing line. The potential to go higher is there, but I have a few issues:A) I assume (always dangerous) he will be the #2WR for the Colts next year. That still leaves him as option #3 in the passing game behind Wayne and Clark. I feel comfortable in giving Wayne and Clark two more years before they fade significantly or move on. Now, I understand dynasty ranking often look past 2 years down the road. However, I tend to look two years away for all practical purposes. Things change. Quickly.B) Gonzales and Collie are not slouches. IMO Gonzales could have performed as well (or better) as the WR2 the Colts offense. I feel that if Garcon gets hurt, we will see Collie/Gonzales step in and the offense will click along no differently.I have him stashed on he bench, but would move him in a package for a good price.

What do you think Garcon could fetch in a trade, Mighty Mouse? He's on my roster at the moment and I've received offers for him before.

Depends on needs. Behind three solid starter, I have lots of young WR's as depth on my roster...guys like Britt, Garcon, Meachem, and Wallace. I've been shopping all 4, trying to get a 2 for 1 to upgrade at WR. When measuring a trade, I put Garcon around the following RB/WR's: Maclin, Britt, Meachem, Evans, Ocho, Boldin, Edwards/Cotchery, R. Bush, Bradshaw, and Lynch (off the top of my head).

 

[SSOG]

Depends on needs. Behind three solid starter, I have lots of young WR's as depth on my roster...guys like Britt, Garcon, Meachem, and Wallace. I've been shopping all 4, trying to get a 2 for 1 to upgrade at WR. When measuring a trade, I put Garcon around the following RB/WR's: Maclin, Britt, Meachem, Evans, Ocho, Boldin, Edwards/Cotchery, R. Bush, Bradshaw, and Lynch (off the top of my head).

I'd have Ocho and Lynch both clearly above Garcon, but I think the other guys are good comps.

 

[munchkin]

On a Colts WR related note... Anthony Gonzalez. Is he a buy low or has he probably lost the #2WR job?

The player out of Garcon/Gonzales and Collie who plays best next training camp/ore-season will be the #2 receiver. I think in all these team situations you go into the new year with a relatively clean slate. Gonzales certainly has to prove he is capable of being inserted into the #2 slot but you can't automatically count him out.

When Garcon is in the game, teams have to respect the deep ball on his side of the field. That is why he will win the #2 job next year. It opens up Dallas Clark and Austin Collie underneath or deep for that matter. Collies long catch yesterday was because the Safety slid over to help cover Garcon running a streak.

Gonzales ran a 4.44 at he Combine with Garcon running at 4.37; I think they both have enough speed to garner the attention of a safety on a go route, particularly with Revis on the other side covering Wayne.

 

[DoubleG]

On a Colts WR related note... Anthony Gonzalez. Is he a buy low or has he probably lost the #2WR job?

The player out of Garcon/Gonzales and Collie who plays best next training camp/ore-season will be the #2 receiver. I think in all these team situations you go into the new year with a relatively clean slate. Gonzales certainly has to prove he is capable of being inserted into the #2 slot but you can't automatically count him out.

When Garcon is in the game, teams have to respect the deep ball on his side of the field. That is why he will win the #2 job next year. It opens up Dallas Clark and Austin Collie underneath or deep for that matter. Collies long catch yesterday was because the Safety slid over to help cover Garcon running a streak.

Gonzales ran a 4.44 at he Combine with Garcon running at 4.37; I think they both have enough speed to garner the attention of a safety on a go route, particularly with Revis on the other side covering Wayne.

Many people posting in this thread seem to use the thought process that Gonzo = Collie. That simply isn't true. Collie is more of the prototypical Colts slot WR receiver (i.e. Stokely) - good hands, tough but not particulalrly fast. Gonzalez and Garcon are the two competing for the WR2 spot - and it seems that many people are quick to forget that Gonzo had won that job coming into this season. Gonzo (pre-injury) was as fast as Garcon and has much better hands. His catch % in 2008 was the 2nd highest in the AFC behind Welker. Anyone automatically pencilling in Garcon as the starter and simply projecting his stats upward from this season may be deeply disappointed. I don't own either player in any league, but if I had Garcon, even in a dynasty league I woul either hold or sell high, but certainly not buy (not in the WR22-26 range), as him starting and getting significant touches is hardly given.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

If Gonzo is the deep threat that Garcon is then why did he average a whopping 11.6 y/c in 2008 with the best QB in history throwing to him? For comparison, Garcon put up 16.3 y/c. And Garcon is beastly as a blocker and a runner too.

There may be a role for Gonzalez, but it's not in Garcon's spot. They're totally different players.

 

[thevidon]

If Gonzo is the deep threat that Garcon is then why did he average a whopping 11.6 y/c in 2008 with the best QB in history throwing to him? For comparison, Garcon put up 16.3 y/c. And Garcon is beastly as a blocker and a runner too.There may be a role for Gonzalez, but it's not in Garcon's spot. They're totally different players.

Unless Gonzalez doesn't come back from his injury, you are being wildly over-optimistic regarding Garcon. Gonzalez was a first round pick (an unexciting one I'll admit) and has plenty of talent of his own. Is Garcon closer to a possession/blocking type WR? Probably. I always got the feeling that Manning loves his WRs to be smart and have almost perfect hands -- two qualities I think Gonzalez beats Garcon in.