Dynasty Rankings (3 Viewers)

[SSOG]

That's interesting that you factor in returns into how often he'll rush and catch the ball. I honestly can't imagine a team doing that--setting a number for him to touch the ball in all aspects and then going by that. Who knows, maybe they do

...

While I won't get into how we view Spiller's talent because there's not much else to discuss there that we haven't already, I just don't agree that their OL is "lousy". Recent #'s just don't bear that out. Football Outsiders attempts to give a numerical ranking on a variety of factors and Buffalo was 12th last year and 13th the year before here. Even if it's not perfect, I have a hard time believing they are so off that it ranks a "lousy" O-line so high. By that ranking, they are most definitely lousy at pass protection, but definitely not for run blocking. Factor in what Fred Jackson was able to do behind that same line last year and we just view his situation differently. I also didn't realize that being the focus of the offense makes you more injury prone.

Two quick-hit points.First off, teams most certainly limit a player's returns based on how integral he is to the offensive (or defensive) gameplan. See Wes Welker, Eddie Royal, Darrent Williams, Devin Hester, Steve Smith, Rod Smith, etc. I've seen guys who are a very important offensive weapon who will still handle punt returns (Welker, DJax, Hester, sometimes Royal), but very few who still handle kickoff returns (pretty much Harvin and Felix are the only two I can think of off hand, and neither of them are as involved in the offense as a Welker or DJax). I can't think of *ANY* who are a decent part of the offensive gameplan who handle both punts *AND* kickoffs. The closest anyone has come to that would be a Josh Cribbs or Dante Hall, and they've both topped out at about 500 yards from scrimmage on offense. If Spiller is getting 250 offensive touches, I sincerely doubt he'll be handling all the returns. If Spiller is handling all the returns, I sincerely doubt that he'll be getting 250 offensive touches.

Second off, the Football Outsiders offensive line rankings aren't a composite of a lot of factors. The rankings are strictly based on the "Line Yards" stat... which is handy, but which is heavily influenced by the RBs and the playcalling. The only offensive line stat that they have that measures a line's ability to just line up and move a defense 1-on-1 without any trickeration or without relying on the RB to make something happen is the "power" ranking (i.e. how often the team is successful on 3rd or 4th down with 2 or fewer yards to go- obvious running situations). Buffalo ranks 31st in that metric. Obviously that doesn't paint the whole picture, either, but it does give a different perspective. I wouldn't say that Buffalo is bottom-5 in terms of run blocking, but I do think they're bottom-10.

Also factoring into the mess that is Buffalo is Chan Gailey (in someone's sig they have a quote that most offenses are either run-heavy or pass-heavy, but Chan's offenses are punt-heavy), the "too many mouths to feed" syndrome (Jackson + Lynch), and the fact that right now Edwards, Fitzpatrick, and Brohm are working hard because one of them is actually going to wind up being a starting QB in the NFL next year.

 

[HenryMuto]

We've done Chris Johnson vs. Steve Slaton to death. Seriously.There's no comparison. Chris Johnson is much more talented. There aren't many backs in the NFL that cause a 9th defender to come into the box on defense while they still carry the offense. Johnson did. Against many teams. In fact, against the Ravens. In the playoffs.Steve Slaton, on the other hand, had Andre Johnson drawing double teams, Owen Daniels carrying the middle of the middle of the field, and Matt Schaub throwing bullets. Who carried the Texans offense?Who carried the Titans offense? I think we know the answer. You're not really going to compare their stats, are you?... Now. If you want to ask why I don't think Steve Slaton carries a lot of Dynasty value, I've explained it here and elsewhere multiple times. I don't think he has very much long-term value. I've said the same things about Willie Parker and Joseph Addai (and Dominick Davis), and I think Slaton fits that profile. I'll probably look bad in 8 weeks for saying it. That's OK. I'm looking long-haul, and Snacks Slaton is not a long-haul RB.I don't think he's going to be worth nearly as much a year from now as he's worth now. To be honest, I'm shocked that he has so much value this year. His short-yardage work is going to be taken away (believe it). To me, he's much more Willie Parker/Joseph Addai long-term than he is Chris Johnson.

If I only came to this forum last season I could have thought about trading Slaton at his peek value. It was pretty interesting seeing some people say how Slaton was going to produce the same stats as Chris Johnson. Ya that didn't work out so good eh ?

 

[HenryMuto]

Things change awful fast in the dynasty landscape. Just less than 1 year ago players like Forte, Slaton, McFadden, Jacobs, Kevin Smith, Marion Barber, ect were touted as big time dyansty players while players like Ray Rice, Miles Austin, Sidney Rice, Jamaal Charles, Steve Smith (NYG), ect were considered players deep down on a dynasty draft board.

Could you imagine if you did a start of dyansty league every season for 10 straight seasons how different your roster would look from year to year.

In 1 season you would draft Forte in the 1st round and Slaton in the 2nd and Ray Rice in the 5th and Charles in the 10th and Austin in the 15th

Now where would those goes go in a draft this year ?

 

[gheemony]

Things change awful fast in the dynasty landscape. Just less than 1 year ago players like Forte, Slaton, McFadden, Jacobs, Kevin Smith, Marion Barber, ect were touted as big time dyansty players while players like Ray Rice, Miles Austin, Sidney Rice, Jamaal Charles, Steve Smith (NYG), ect were considered players deep down on a dynasty draft board.Could you imagine if you did a start of dyansty league every season for 10 straight seasons how different your roster would look from year to year.In 1 season you would draft Forte in the 1st round and Slaton in the 2nd and Ray Rice in the 5th and Charles in the 10th and Austin in the 15thNow where would those goes go in a draft this year ?

I guess you could do this by tracking your personal dynasty rankings on a yearly, quarterly, monthly, weekly, daily basis and then graph the ups and downs (easy to do in Excel). But it would be even more interesting to do a mock start-up dynasty draft (auction, better yet) twice a year with the same 12 owners and track how the values change in a graph.F&L, do you archive your rankings in any way (other than old posts on the blog)? Would be nice if we could chart your values (i.e., see Miles Austin's ascension, etc. in a visual way).

 

[King of the Jungle]

Does anyone have any input on James Hardy WR Buffalo? A big man (6'5") with some wheels (4.4) who has yet to make an impact. It seems he has suffered some injuries, although I am not positive if it is more than that. I would be curious if anyone thought he has the skill-set top make people notice.

 

[TitansFan10]

We've done Chris Johnson vs. Steve Slaton to death. Seriously.There's no comparison. Chris Johnson is much more talented. There aren't many backs in the NFL that cause a 9th defender to come into the box on defense while they still carry the offense. Johnson did. Against many teams. In fact, against the Ravens. In the playoffs.Steve Slaton, on the other hand, had Andre Johnson drawing double teams, Owen Daniels carrying the middle of the middle of the field, and Matt Schaub throwing bullets. Who carried the Texans offense?Who carried the Titans offense? I think we know the answer. You're not really going to compare their stats, are you?... Now. If you want to ask why I don't think Steve Slaton carries a lot of Dynasty value, I've explained it here and elsewhere multiple times. I don't think he has very much long-term value. I've said the same things about Willie Parker and Joseph Addai (and Dominick Davis), and I think Slaton fits that profile. I'll probably look bad in 8 weeks for saying it. That's OK. I'm looking long-haul, and Snacks Slaton is not a long-haul RB.I don't think he's going to be worth nearly as much a year from now as he's worth now. To be honest, I'm shocked that he has so much value this year. His short-yardage work is going to be taken away (believe it). To me, he's much more Willie Parker/Joseph Addai long-term than he is Chris Johnson.

If I only came to this forum last season I could have thought about trading Slaton at his peek value. It was pretty interesting seeing some people say how Slaton was going to produce the same stats as Chris Johnson. Ya that didn't work out so good eh ?

F&L beasted that post didn't he. LOL Some of the posters were so mad and ranting on and on...When F&L and SOGG feel very strongly about a certain player I listen. I don't always agree (like with Shonn Greene who I like a lot), but I listen and accept the fact I am going against the grain at my potential peril. Good find above.

 

[GreatLakesMike]

Does anyone have any input on James Hardy WR Buffalo? A big man (6'5") with some wheels (4.4) who has yet to make an impact. It seems he has suffered some injuries, although I am not positive if it is more than that. I would be curious if anyone thought he has the skill-set top make people notice.

I watched Hardy in College quite a bit, but that's about it. He caught everything thrown his way, so I don't think his hands are an issue. As you already stated, he has good speed, especially for a guy his size. It's hard to tell who is running good routes in college because the camera angles simply don't allow you to see downfield until the ball is thrown. I could see a tall guy like Hardy having a hard time with press coverage. Other than that, I got nothing. It often takes a year + to recover from ACL injuries so I think Hardy is somewhat of a wild-card right now. He's certainly in a horrible situation.

 

[thecardiackid]

Does anyone have any input on James Hardy WR Buffalo? A big man (6'5") with some wheels (4.4) who has yet to make an impact. It seems he has suffered some injuries, although I am not positive if it is more than that. I would be curious if anyone thought he has the skill-set top make people notice.

I watched Hardy in College quite a bit, but that's about it. He caught everything thrown his way, so I don't think his hands are an issue. As you already stated, he has good speed, especially for a guy his size. It's hard to tell who is running good routes in college because the camera angles simply don't allow you to see downfield until the ball is thrown. I could see a tall guy like Hardy having a hard time with press coverage. Other than that, I got nothing. It often takes a year + to recover from ACL injuries so I think Hardy is somewhat of a wild-card right now. He's certainly in a horrible situation.

I'll give you the QB situation, but as far as NFL level opportunities for a WR to emerge (if they have the talent), BUF is beyond wide open. Whether or not Hardy has the ability and mentality to develop into a solid NFL WR remains to be seen, but it's not like he's buried on the depth chart with a lot of proven talent ahead of him. Beyond Evans, who is inconsistent to say the least, there's no more T.O. and a bunch of role player guys. The door is WIDE open, but Hardy must (sooner than later) prove himself.And, while the QBs in BUF are probably less than desireable, it's a two way street. Good WR production (running the right routes, getting separation, and of course catching the ball), can make a very average NFL QB look much better.

That said, BUF will be very interesting as a transitional team in the NFCE this year w/ a new HC, system, a new highly drafted offensive *toy* in Spiller, and some tough defenses to figure out.

Based on his probable cost in dynasty (can't be much more than "throw in fodder" @ this point), you could do worse. I'm not saying he's the next Sydney Rice, but the opportunity is certainly there.

 

[Tau837]

That's interesting that you factor in returns into how often he'll rush and catch the ball. I honestly can't imagine a team doing that--setting a number for him to touch the ball in all aspects and then going by that. Who knows, maybe they do

Just to clarify on this point. I'm not saying the team will be managing Spiller to a specific number of touches, like a pitcher on a pitch count. Rather, I think it will happen naturally. I think the more they use him to return kickoffs and punts, the less they will use him on offense. However they want to use him, I think they will regulate his workload to keep him fresh and maximize his production.I'm not aware of any RB who has been both a workhorse/feature RB and returned a substantial number of kickoffs and punts. Now, that is just my impression... maybe someone around here has done or will do some research on that subject and post the results. I'm certainly interested in counterexamples.But if that is true, then it becomes some kind of scale where as you come down in offensive touches from workhorse/feature RB level, you will find an inverse relationship with those who return kickoffs and punts (i.e., as you reduce the threshold for offensive touches, the number of returned kickoffs and punts for those players go up).I think it's fairly rare that a player gets 40+ returns and 200+ offensive touches. I think Charles and Fred Jackson did it last year. But to some degree, Jackson may have reached those numbers in part due to Lynch's suspension... had Lynch not been suspended to start the season, Jackson would have returned the same number of kicks/punts but would have had fewer offensive touches by design... my impression is that with Lynch's suspension they were compelled to use him for both and he did well enough that they stuck with it. As for Charles, his role on offense obviously changed late in the season, and it remains to be seen if they will try to give him a heavier load on offense this year while also using him on returns.I'm sure there are other examples, but I think they are rare. I'm interested in any info anyone comes up with on this.Anyway, that's what I meant. Not a pitch count, just a pattern of usage.

 

[OnThInIcE911]

Not sure how recently this has been covered but how about Matt Forte?

Just got drafted in my PPR dynasty league as 20th RB and 52nd overall. At just 24 years old that feels like a steal.

I mean his stats were obviously down last year but I don't see why anyone expects less from him. He's averaged 60.5 receptions for his first 2 seasons and even though he had a rough year he still managed 12th RB in PPR.

Did I miss something? Did someone come in or get drafted that makes you believe he won't have overall numbers close to his career average?

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

Not sure how recently this has been covered but how about Matt Forte? Just got drafted in my PPR dynasty league as 20th RB and 52nd overall. At just 24 years old that feels like a steal.I mean his stats were obviously down last year but I don't see why anyone expects less from him. He's averaged 60.5 receptions for his first 2 seasons and even though he had a rough year he still managed 12th RB in PPR. Did I miss something? Did someone come in or get drafted that makes you believe he won't have overall numbers close to his career average?

Chester Taylor signed with the Bears. Lots of folks here think that Taylor will not only steal carries, but get a majority of touches this year.

 

[OnThInIcE911]

Not sure how recently this has been covered but how about Matt Forte? Just got drafted in my PPR dynasty league as 20th RB and 52nd overall. At just 24 years old that feels like a steal.I mean his stats were obviously down last year but I don't see why anyone expects less from him. He's averaged 60.5 receptions for his first 2 seasons and even though he had a rough year he still managed 12th RB in PPR. Did I miss something? Did someone come in or get drafted that makes you believe he won't have overall numbers close to his career average?

Chester Taylor signed with the Bears. Lots of folks here think that Taylor will not only steal carries, but get a majority of touches this year.

O thank you. For some reason I completely forgot about that signing and I'm really glad I didn't take Forte with my last pick now.Still wouldnt mind hearing a bit more thoughts about him.

 

[kremenull]

We've done Chris Johnson vs. Steve Slaton to death. Seriously.

There's no comparison. Chris Johnson is much more talented. There aren't many backs in the NFL that cause a 9th defender to come into the box on defense while they still carry the offense. Johnson did. Against many teams. In fact, against the Ravens. In the playoffs.

Steve Slaton, on the other hand, had Andre Johnson drawing double teams, Owen Daniels carrying the middle of the middle of the field, and Matt Schaub throwing bullets. Who carried the Texans offense?

Who carried the Titans offense? I think we know the answer. You're not really going to compare their stats, are you?

...

Now. If you want to ask why I don't think Steve Slaton carries a lot of Dynasty value, I've explained it here and elsewhere multiple times. I don't think he has very much long-term value.

I've said the same things about Willie Parker and Joseph Addai (and Dominick Davis), and I think Slaton fits that profile. I'll probably look bad in 8 weeks for saying it. That's OK. I'm looking long-haul, and Snacks Slaton is not a long-haul RB.

I don't think he's going to be worth nearly as much a year from now as he's worth now. To be honest, I'm shocked that he has so much value this year. His short-yardage work is going to be taken away (believe it). To me, he's much more Willie Parker/Joseph Addai long-term than he is Chris Johnson.

If I only came to this forum last season I could have thought about trading Slaton at his peek value. It was pretty interesting seeing some people say how Slaton was going to produce the same stats as Chris Johnson. Ya that didn't work out so good eh ?

Yep! I sure was one of the guys on the Slaton bandwagon. You get some right, and you get some wrong. Nature of the beast, eh......A few topics/posts behind the one that you were so quick to pull up was this one.

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...&p=10560923

I ain't afraid to stick my neck out there....Ooooops! I didn't mean to use 'neck' and Slaton in the same sentence.....

 

[gianmarco]

That's interesting that you factor in returns into how often he'll rush and catch the ball. I honestly can't imagine a team doing that--setting a number for him to touch the ball in all aspects and then going by that. Who knows, maybe they do

Just to clarify on this point. I'm not saying the team will be managing Spiller to a specific number of touches, like a pitcher on a pitch count. Rather, I think it will happen naturally. I think the more they use him to return kickoffs and punts, the less they will use him on offense. However they want to use him, I think they will regulate his workload to keep him fresh and maximize his production.I'm not aware of any RB who has been both a workhorse/feature RB and returned a substantial number of kickoffs and punts. Now, that is just my impression... maybe someone around here has done or will do some research on that subject and post the results. I'm certainly interested in counterexamples.But if that is true, then it becomes some kind of scale where as you come down in offensive touches from workhorse/feature RB level, you will find an inverse relationship with those who return kickoffs and punts (i.e., as you reduce the threshold for offensive touches, the number of returned kickoffs and punts for those players go up).I think it's fairly rare that a player gets 40+ returns and 200+ offensive touches. I think Charles and Fred Jackson did it last year. But to some degree, Jackson may have reached those numbers in part due to Lynch's suspension... had Lynch not been suspended to start the season, Jackson would have returned the same number of kicks/punts but would have had fewer offensive touches by design... my impression is that with Lynch's suspension they were compelled to use him for both and he did well enough that they stuck with it. As for Charles, his role on offense obviously changed late in the season, and it remains to be seen if they will try to give him a heavier load on offense this year while also using him on returns.I'm sure there are other examples, but I think they are rare. I'm interested in any info anyone comes up with on this.Anyway, that's what I meant. Not a pitch count, just a pattern of usage.

That makes more sense. I thought you were indeed talking about a pitch count.

 

[SSOG]

Not sure how recently this has been covered but how about Matt Forte? Just got drafted in my PPR dynasty league as 20th RB and 52nd overall. At just 24 years old that feels like a steal.I mean his stats were obviously down last year but I don't see why anyone expects less from him. He's averaged 60.5 receptions for his first 2 seasons and even though he had a rough year he still managed 12th RB in PPR. Did I miss something? Did someone come in or get drafted that makes you believe he won't have overall numbers close to his career average?

I think most people agree that Forte will continue to produce startable fantasy numbers in PPR leagues as long as he's the starter in Chicago. I think the reason why his ranking is lower than his production to date is because a lot of people question how much longer he'll be the starter in Chicago. Kevin Smith demonstrated last season that even on a terrible team with holes everywhere, a mediocre talent is never more than one draft pick away from insignificance.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

a mediocre talent is never more than one draft pick away from insignificance.

 

[GreatLakesMike]

Does anyone have any input on James Hardy WR Buffalo? A big man (6'5") with some wheels (4.4) who has yet to make an impact. It seems he has suffered some injuries, although I am not positive if it is more than that. I would be curious if anyone thought he has the skill-set top make people notice.

I watched Hardy in College quite a bit, but that's about it. He caught everything thrown his way, so I don't think his hands are an issue. As you already stated, he has good speed, especially for a guy his size. It's hard to tell who is running good routes in college because the camera angles simply don't allow you to see downfield until the ball is thrown. I could see a tall guy like Hardy having a hard time with press coverage. Other than that, I got nothing. It often takes a year + to recover from ACL injuries so I think Hardy is somewhat of a wild-card right now. He's certainly in a horrible situation.

I'll give you the QB situation, but as far as NFL level opportunities for a WR to emerge (if they have the talent), BUF is beyond wide open. Whether or not Hardy has the ability and mentality to develop into a solid NFL WR remains to be seen, but it's not like he's buried on the depth chart with a lot of proven talent ahead of him. Beyond Evans, who is inconsistent to say the least, there's no more T.O. and a bunch of role player guys. The door is WIDE open, but Hardy must (sooner than later) prove himself.And, while the QBs in BUF are probably less than desireable, it's a two way street. Good WR production (running the right routes, getting separation, and of course catching the ball), can make a very average NFL QB look much better.

That said, BUF will be very interesting as a transitional team in the NFCE this year w/ a new HC, system, a new highly drafted offensive *toy* in Spiller, and some tough defenses to figure out.

Based on his probable cost in dynasty (can't be much more than "throw in fodder" @ this point), you could do worse. I'm not saying he's the next Sydney Rice, but the opportunity is certainly there.

This is true.. I just think the Bills are one of the worst ran organizations in the league. They've managed to completely bury a talented WR like Lee Evans for years, so I don't have a lot of faith in Buffalo's coaching staff or front office to turn things around anytime soon. That said, we all know things can change in a hurry in today's NFL. Hardy is certainly worth a roster spot in deep leagues (24 + IMO).

 

[Fear & Loathing]

a mediocre talent is never more than one draft pick away from insignificance.

 

[travdogg]

Since there hasn't been any TE update in a while, I thought I'd get the discussion going with my personal rankings there.

Tier One

Antonio Gates-Been great playing hurt the last couple years, is still the only TE that a 1,200-10 season wouldn't surprise me.

Jermichael Finley-All the talent in the world, plus a great QB for years to come. Probably the last chance to get him.

Vernon Davis-The best talent at the position, I'd rank him higher if I felt better about Alex Smith.

Tier Two

Jason Witten-I think the addition of Dez Bryant hurts him, and he seems like he's lost a step lately. Still solid though.

Dallas Clark-Like Witten, I think there is a lot of mouths to feed in Indy. He's on the wrong side of 30. Good sell high?

Brent Celek-Young player in a young offense, probably doesn't have much upside, but looks solid for years to come.

Zach Miller-Finally has a QB who isn't awful. Has top-5 upside, but I feel more comfortable with Celek.

Owen Daniels-Was the #1 TE when he got hurt last year. 3 ACL tears make me wooly of his future, but his upside is great.

Kellen Winslow-I'm not worried about his knee so much as the supporting cast. Limited upside on Tampa Bay.

Tier Three

Heath Miller-Kinda broke out last year, and with Holmes gone he could become even more of a weapon. Or not.

Chris Cooley-Should be able to hold of Fred Davis and be a vital part of Washington's passing game.

Tony Scheffler-Detroit could be a good fit. With Calvin drawing double teams the seams should be there for him.

Tony Gonzalez-Still has a top-5 season left in him in my opinion. After that, who knows, but still plenty valuable.

Greg Olsen-For Olsen's sake, the Martz experiment would be one and done. Olsen is a talent, but more flashes than stats.

John Carlson-I don't think he's all that talented, but he could be his team's leading receiver.

 

[gianmarco]

Since there hasn't been any TE update in a while, I thought I'd get the discussion going with my personal rankings there.

Tier One

Antonio Gates-Been great playing hurt the last couple years, is still the only TE that a 1,200-10 season wouldn't surprise me.

Jermichael Finley-All the talent in the world, plus a great QB for years to come. Probably the last chance to get him.

Vernon Davis-The best talent at the position, I'd rank him higher if I felt better about Alex Smith.

Tier Two

Jason Witten-I think the addition of Dez Bryant hurts him, and he seems like he's lost a step lately. Still solid though.

Dallas Clark-Like Witten, I think there is a lot of mouths to feed in Indy. He's on the wrong side of 30. Good sell high?

Brent Celek-Young player in a young offense, probably doesn't have much upside, but looks solid for years to come.

Zach Miller-Finally has a QB who isn't awful. Has top-5 upside, but I feel more comfortable with Celek.

Owen Daniels-Was the #1 TE when he got hurt last year. 3 ACL tears make me wooly of his future, but his upside is great.

Kellen Winslow-I'm not worried about his knee so much as the supporting cast. Limited upside on Tampa Bay.

Tier Three

Heath Miller-Kinda broke out last year, and with Holmes gone he could become even more of a weapon. Or not.

Chris Cooley-Should be able to hold of Fred Davis and be a vital part of Washington's passing game.

Tony Scheffler-Detroit could be a good fit. With Calvin drawing double teams the seams should be there for him.

Tony Gonzalez-Still has a top-5 season left in him in my opinion. After that, who knows, but still plenty valuable.

Greg Olsen-For Olsen's sake, the Martz experiment would be one and done. Olsen is a talent, but more flashes than stats.

John Carlson-I don't think he's all that talented, but he could be his team's leading receiver.

I keep seeing this over and over and over. The guy caught 94 balls for over 1000 yds for his 2nd best totals of his entire career. You don't do that as a TE if you "lose a step". Most TE's don't do that period.

 

[BeTheMatch]

Since there hasn't been any TE update in a while, I thought I'd get the discussion going with my personal rankings there.

Tier One

Antonio Gates-Been great playing hurt the last couple years, is still the only TE that a 1,200-10 season wouldn't surprise me.

Jermichael Finley-All the talent in the world, plus a great QB for years to come. Probably the last chance to get him.

Vernon Davis-The best talent at the position, I'd rank him higher if I felt better about Alex Smith.

Tier Two

Jason Witten-I think the addition of Dez Bryant hurts him, and he seems like he's lost a step lately. Still solid though.

Dallas Clark-Like Witten, I think there is a lot of mouths to feed in Indy. He's on the wrong side of 30. Good sell high?

Brent Celek-Young player in a young offense, probably doesn't have much upside, but looks solid for years to come.

Zach Miller-Finally has a QB who isn't awful. Has top-5 upside, but I feel more comfortable with Celek.

Owen Daniels-Was the #1 TE when he got hurt last year. 3 ACL tears make me wooly of his future, but his upside is great.

Kellen Winslow-I'm not worried about his knee so much as the supporting cast. Limited upside on Tampa Bay.

Tier Three

Heath Miller-Kinda broke out last year, and with Holmes gone he could become even more of a weapon. Or not.

Chris Cooley-Should be able to hold of Fred Davis and be a vital part of Washington's passing game.

Tony Scheffler-Detroit could be a good fit. With Calvin drawing double teams the seams should be there for him.

Tony Gonzalez-Still has a top-5 season left in him in my opinion. After that, who knows, but still plenty valuable.

Greg Olsen-For Olsen's sake, the Martz experiment would be one and done. Olsen is a talent, but more flashes than stats.

John Carlson-I don't think he's all that talented, but he could be his team's leading receiver.

I keep seeing this over and over and over. The guy caught 94 balls for over 1000 yds for his 2nd best totals of his entire career. You don't do that as a TE if you "lose a step". Most TE's don't do that period.

I've watched Witten very closely in recent years, and I tend to agree that he "lost a step" if that's the right terminology. It reminds of Reggie Wayne. While both Wayne and Witten were still very productive last year, something just didn't look right with them. Hard to put into words, but they just looked slower, older, beat up perhaps. Not saying they're going to fall off the cliff this year, but they both just looked older than they are. Who knows, maybe they were playing hurt all year. That would at least be an explanation for what I saw with both of them.

 

[The Real Hipster Doofus]

Since there hasn't been any TE update in a while, I thought I'd get the discussion going with my personal rankings there.Tier OneAntonio Gates-Been great playing hurt the last couple years, is still the only TE that a 1,200-10 season wouldn't surprise me.Jermichael Finley-All the talent in the world, plus a great QB for years to come. Probably the last chance to get him.Vernon Davis-The best talent at the position, I'd rank him higher if I felt better about Alex Smith.Tier TwoJason Witten-I think the addition of Dez Bryant hurts him, and he seems like he's lost a step lately. Still solid though.Dallas Clark-Like Witten, I think there is a lot of mouths to feed in Indy. He's on the wrong side of 30. Good sell high?Brent Celek-Young player in a young offense, probably doesn't have much upside, but looks solid for years to come.Zach Miller-Finally has a QB who isn't awful. Has top-5 upside, but I feel more comfortable with Celek.Owen Daniels-Was the #1 TE when he got hurt last year. 3 ACL tears make me wooly of his future, but his upside is great.Kellen Winslow-I'm not worried about his knee so much as the supporting cast. Limited upside on Tampa Bay.Tier ThreeHeath Miller-Kinda broke out last year, and with Holmes gone he could become even more of a weapon. Or not.Chris Cooley-Should be able to hold of Fred Davis and be a vital part of Washington's passing game.Tony Scheffler-Detroit could be a good fit. With Calvin drawing double teams the seams should be there for him.Tony Gonzalez-Still has a top-5 season left in him in my opinion. After that, who knows, but still plenty valuable.Greg Olsen-For Olsen's sake, the Martz experiment would be one and done. Olsen is a talent, but more flashes than stats.John Carlson-I don't think he's all that talented, but he could be his team's leading receiver.

Heres mine for comparison. This is who I would take in order in a startup dynasty, the rankings might change slightly in other leagues depending on my roster composition. Tier 11. Jermichael Finley2. Antonio Gates3. Dallas Clark4. Jason Witten5. Vernon DavisTier 26. Zack Miller7. Kellen Winslow8. Owen Daniels9. Brent CelekTier 310. Heath Miller11. Jermaine Gresham12. Tony Gonzalez13. John Carlson14. Fred Davis15. Dustin Keller

 

[Instinctive]

I think we all have Brent Celek a bit too low. in a dynasty, I'd rather have him than anybody but Finley, Davis, Gates, or Witten. That puts him at #5.

He's generally consistent, plays ona team that passes a lot, and had some serious chemistry in his two games with Kolb last year. This could become another Romo-Witten type deal, as guys who are good friends and room together in addition to a great on-field connection.

 

[finito]

I think we all have Brent Celek a bit too low. in a dynasty, I'd rather have him than anybody but Finley, Davis, Gates, or Witten. That puts him at #5.He's generally consistent, plays ona team that passes a lot, and had some serious chemistry in his two games with Kolb last year. This could become another Romo-Witten type deal, as guys who are good friends and room together in addition to a great on-field connection.

I'm concerned that if Maclin develops his production will come at the expense of Celek's. It's very rare for a team to have two 1k WRs and an uber productive TE. I think Celek's numbers may drop.

 

[EBF]

I think we all have Brent Celek a bit too low. in a dynasty, I'd rather have him than anybody but Finley, Davis, Gates, or Witten. That puts him at #5.He's generally consistent, plays ona team that passes a lot, and had some serious chemistry in his two games with Kolb last year. This could become another Romo-Witten type deal, as guys who are good friends and room together in addition to a great on-field connection.

I think he's most likely to regress of last year's elite TEs. His numbers scream "career year" to me and his reckless playing style could lead to injury problems down the road.I haven't thought much about the TE position this year. Zach Miller is not a great athlete by NFL standards, but if you're looking for a solid redraft pick then I think he could be a solid choice because he's the most reliable pass catcher on the team and Campbell is a major upgrade over Russell/Gradkowski. In a similar vein I like Fred Davis as a stash player in dynasty leagues because he looks like he'll eventually be a mid-low end TE1 and his price tag doesn't quite reflect it. I don't think he has a great upside, but he can be a Cooley/ZMiller type. The best values right now might be in the rookie class. Jimmy Graham has Pro Bowl potential at the price of a late 2nd-early 3rd round rookie pick. Moeaki looks like he'll become a Tony Scheffler type at worst. Gresham, McCoy, and Hernandez are good values at their price. Onobun is a great flyer to grab off the waiver wire.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Owen Daniels-Was the #1 TE when he got hurt last year. 3 ACL tears make me wooly of his future, but his upside is great.

Women don't get wooly. No one gets wooly. Women get weary

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Owen Daniels-Was the #1 TE when he got hurt last year. 3 ACL tears make me wooly of his future, but his upside is great.

Women don't get wooly. No one gets wooly. Women get weary

Oh she may get wooly, women do get wooly, because of all the stress...

 

[massraider]

I think we all have Brent Celek a bit too low. in a dynasty, I'd rather have him than anybody but Finley, Davis, Gates, or Witten. That puts him at #5.He's generally consistent, plays ona team that passes a lot, and had some serious chemistry in his two games with Kolb last year. This could become another Romo-Witten type deal, as guys who are good friends and room together in addition to a great on-field connection.

I think the opposite. I think there's a chance he is overvalued. I also think this will vary from league to league. I saw two recent startup auctions where Celek was the 5th most expensive, and THE most expensive TE. Think a lot of people like this guy a lot.And I know I think Kolb's two game sample is way too small.

 

[Ron_Mexico]

Owen Daniels-Was the #1 TE when he got hurt last year. 3 ACL tears make me wooly of his future, but his upside is great.

Women don't get wooly. No one gets wooly. Women get weary

correct answer = "Leary" as opposed to "Wooly" or "Weary".

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Owen Daniels-Was the #1 TE when he got hurt last year. 3 ACL tears make me wooly of his future, but his upside is great.

Women don't get wooly. No one gets wooly. Women get weary

correct answer = "Leary" as opposed to "Wooly" or "Weary".

also correct answer = "wary".

 

[The Real Hipster Doofus]

I think we all have Brent Celek a bit too low. in a dynasty, I'd rather have him than anybody but Finley, Davis, Gates, or Witten. That puts him at #5.He's generally consistent, plays ona team that passes a lot, and had some serious chemistry in his two games with Kolb last year. This could become another Romo-Witten type deal, as guys who are good friends and room together in addition to a great on-field connection.

I think the opposite. I think there's a chance he is overvalued. I also think this will vary from league to league. I saw two recent startup auctions where Celek was the 5th most expensive, and THE most expensive TE. Think a lot of people like this guy a lot.And I know I think Kolb's two game sample is way too small.

My thoughts as well. I would look to move Celek for someone like Zack Miller and another piece.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I think we all have Brent Celek a bit too low. in a dynasty, I'd rather have him than anybody but Finley, Davis, Gates, or Witten. That puts him at #5.He's generally consistent, plays ona team that passes a lot, and had some serious chemistry in his two games with Kolb last year. This could become another Romo-Witten type deal, as guys who are good friends and room together in addition to a great on-field connection.

I think the opposite. I think there's a chance he is overvalued. I also think this will vary from league to league. I saw two recent startup auctions where Celek was the 5th most expensive, and THE most expensive TE. Think a lot of people like this guy a lot.And I know I think Kolb's two game sample is way too small.

Celek reminds me of another former Philly TE, Chad Lewis - a guy that isn't tremendously gifted but athletic enough, sure handed and has the trust of his QB. In the Philly offense he'll be productive as long as a better talent isn't brought into compete, but due to his lack of elite skills he's a guy who may occaisionally creep into the top 5 during a given season, but never be a difference maker.I own him in one league, and agree that he's starting to become a little over-rated (espcially if he's being drafted like you said), in that we've very likely seen his ceiling.

 

[finito]

Owen Daniels-Was the #1 TE when he got hurt last year. 3 ACL tears make me wooly of his future, but his upside is great.

Women don't get wooly. No one gets wooly. Women get weary

correct answer = "Leary" as opposed to "Wooly" or "Weary".

I think you mean "Leery".

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

IMO Gresham and Cook need to be 1) and 1a) behind the current FF-relevant NFL starters (you can draw that line yourself). Strongly believe both will be beastly when their time comes.

 

[SSOG]

correct answer = "Leary" as opposed to "Wooly" or "Weary".

I think you mean "Leery".

I think King Leary would have been better off if he'd been a bit more leery.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

IMO Gresham and Cook need to be 1) and 1a) behind the current FF-relevant NFL starters (you can draw that line yourself). Strongly believe both will be beastly when their time comes.

I think Hernandez has much more upside than either of them. I think he is a much better route runner, has better hands, and seems to have a knack for finding soft spots in zones. I think Brady is going to take advantage of the mismatches this kid will create, especially in the deep middle. I do like those 2, but not as much as Hernandez.

 

[Go deep]

IMO Gresham and Cook need to be 1) and 1a) behind the current FF-relevant NFL starters (you can draw that line yourself). Strongly believe both will be beastly when their time comes.

I think Hernandez has much more upside than either of them. I think he is a much better route runner, has better hands, and seems to have a knack for finding soft spots in zones. I think Brady is going to take advantage of the mismatches this kid will create, especially in the deep middle. I do like those 2, but not as much as Hernandez.

Hernandez is just this years version of Cook, an over sized WR that cant block, so wont see the field much. Gresham is easily better than both players, thats why he was drafted 3 rounds ahead of them.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

IMO Gresham and Cook need to be 1) and 1a) behind the current FF-relevant NFL starters (you can draw that line yourself). Strongly believe both will be beastly when their time comes.

I think Hernandez has much more upside than either of them. I think he is a much better route runner, has better hands, and seems to have a knack for finding soft spots in zones. I think Brady is going to take advantage of the mismatches this kid will create, especially in the deep middle. I do like those 2, but not as much as Hernandez.

Hernandez is just this years version of Cook, an over sized WR that cant block, so wont see the field much. Gresham is easily better than both players, thats why he was drafted 3 rounds ahead of them.

He was drafted 3 rounds ahead because he is a better complete NFL TE, not because he is a better pass catcher. Gresham is not a better pass catcher than Hernandez and his route running isn't as good. Gresham is a great blocker and without that, TEs rarely if ever get drafted in round 1.

 

[corpcow]

IMO Gresham and Cook need to be 1) and 1a) behind the current FF-relevant NFL starters (you can draw that line yourself). Strongly believe both will be beastly when their time comes.

I think Hernandez has much more upside than either of them. I think he is a much better route runner, has better hands, and seems to have a knack for finding soft spots in zones. I think Brady is going to take advantage of the mismatches this kid will create, especially in the deep middle. I do like those 2, but not as much as Hernandez.

Hernandez is just this years version of Cook, an over sized WR that cant block, so wont see the field much. Gresham is easily better than both players, thats why he was drafted 3 rounds ahead of them.

He was drafted 3 rounds ahead because he is a better complete NFL TE, not because he is a better pass catcher. Gresham is not a better pass catcher than Hernandez and his route running isn't as good. Gresham is a great blocker and without that, TEs rarely if ever get drafted in round 1.

An oversized TE... you mean like Gates, Finley, Winslow, Clark, etc? As Tony said, guys like Gresham and Pettigrew are more complete NFL TEs... like, say, Heath Miller. Yeah, they're going to see the field sooner, but they also have much more limited upside. The reason those elite TEs are elite is that they can effectively fill a WR1/WR2 role for their team. So, Cook and Hernandez have a much lower floor than guys like those guys I mentioned, but also have MUCH more upside (like, say, Finley). I still maintain that Cook will be a beast.....

 

[OnThInIcE911]

I may be a homer but I think Gresham could be the next Gates.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

I may be a homer but I think Gresham could be the next Gates.

You're a . Big time.

 

[EBF]

I'm not saying Gresham will be great, but to compare him to Heath and Pettigrew seems a bit inaccurate. He was much more of a receiving threat in college and was drafted/lauded more for his receiving abilities than those other two.

 

[OnThInIcE911]

I'm not saying he will put up Gates like numbers but from a pure talent and physical gifts standpoint he could develop into a similar TE and become an Elite TE in FF and IRL.

I see him more as a bottom of the 2nd tier TE instead of lumping him with Heath Miller and John Carlson.

 

[gianmarco]

IMO Gresham and Cook need to be 1) and 1a) behind the current FF-relevant NFL starters (you can draw that line yourself). Strongly believe both will be beastly when their time comes.

I think Hernandez has much more upside than either of them. I think he is a much better route runner, has better hands, and seems to have a knack for finding soft spots in zones. I think Brady is going to take advantage of the mismatches this kid will create, especially in the deep middle. I do like those 2, but not as much as Hernandez.

Hernandez is just this years version of Cook, an over sized WR that cant block, so wont see the field much. Gresham is easily better than both players, thats why he was drafted 3 rounds ahead of them.

He was drafted 3 rounds ahead because he is a better complete NFL TE, not because he is a better pass catcher. Gresham is not a better pass catcher than Hernandez and his route running isn't as good. Gresham is a great blocker and without that, TEs rarely if ever get drafted in round 1.

An oversized TE... you mean like Gates, Finley, Winslow, Clark, etc? As Tony said, guys like Gresham and Pettigrew are more complete NFL TEs... like, say, Heath Miller. Yeah, they're going to see the field sooner, but they also have much more limited upside. The reason those elite TEs are elite is that they can effectively fill a WR1/WR2 role for their team. So, Cook and Hernandez have a much lower floor than guys like those guys I mentioned, but also have MUCH more upside (like, say, Finley). I still maintain that Cook will be a beast.....

Gresham is a great TE in all facets of the game. Once he's used properly, he will excel.

 

[SSOG]

After a recent lowball offer from an owner looking to buy Fitzgerald low now that Warner has retired, I was looking up where Fitzgerald rates against history so far. A lot of you might have seen the numbers of where Fitzgerald ranks through X seasons (top 10 receivers in fantasy points through 6 seasons = Moss, Rice, Holt, Harrison, Fitzgerald, Alworth, Rison, Sterling Sharpe, Owens, and Charley Taylor- pretty heady company)... but I wanted to look at it from a different perspective. I wanted to see how unprecedented it was to have a player who was THIS proven and THIS good, but still THIS young. Fitzgerald just completed his age 26 seasons, so I compiled a list of the best stats through age 26 in NFL history. Take a look-

Receptions-

Randy Moss (525)

Larry Fitzgerald (523)

Andre Rison (394)

Receiving Yards-

Randy Moss (8375)

Larry Fitzgerald (7067)

Lance Alworth (5651)

Receiving TDs-

Randy Moss (77)

Larry Fitzgerald (59)

Lance Alworth (54)

Fantasy Points-

Randy Moss (1321.5)

Larry Fitzgerald (1066.2)

Lance Alworth (910.0)

First off, it's startling just how far ahead of everyone else Randy Moss was. The second thing I notice, though, is that Fitzgerald is just as far ahead of third place. Andre Rison was 129 receptions behind Fitzgerald through age 26. Alworth was 1416 yards behind Fitz. Alworth was also 156 fantasy points behind Fitz through age 26. That's the fantasy equivalent of Santonio Holmes last season.

To put this into even more perspective... Brandon Marshall was 25 last year, so his 26-year old season is coming up. Let's say that Brandon Marshall becomes an unstoppable beast and manages to go for a record-shattering 3200 yards and 30 TDs. If he manages to do that, Larry Fitzgerald will STILL have scored more fantasy points by age 27. If Michael Crabtree wants to catch Larry Fitzgerald through age 26, he'll need to put up 1610 yards and 14 TDs. Every year. FOR THE NEXT FOUR YEARS. And even that will still leave him 6.2 fantasy points behind Fitz.

F&L did a post on his blog last year questioning whether Fitzgerald might be worth the very first pick in a dynasty start-up. Personally, I think the question is every bit as valid today after Fitzgerald put up yet another top-5 fantasy finish despite the clear erosion of Kurt Warner's abilities. So, is there anyone else out there who would consider taking Larry Fitzgerald with the #1 overall pick of a new startup?

 

[Go deep]

IMO Gresham and Cook need to be 1) and 1a) behind the current FF-relevant NFL starters (you can draw that line yourself). Strongly believe both will be beastly when their time comes.

I think Hernandez has much more upside than either of them. I think he is a much better route runner, has better hands, and seems to have a knack for finding soft spots in zones. I think Brady is going to take advantage of the mismatches this kid will create, especially in the deep middle. I do like those 2, but not as much as Hernandez.

Hernandez is just this years version of Cook, an over sized WR that cant block, so wont see the field much. Gresham is easily better than both players, thats why he was drafted 3 rounds ahead of them.

He was drafted 3 rounds ahead because he is a better complete NFL TE, not because he is a better pass catcher. Gresham is not a better pass catcher than Hernandez and his route running isn't as good. Gresham is a great blocker and without that, TEs rarely if ever get drafted in round 1.

Exactly, and without the ability to block, TE's rarely get a chance to see the field.

 

[SSOG]

Exactly, and without the ability to block, TE's rarely get a chance to see the field.

Dallas Clark begs to differ. So does Jermichael Finley. Shannon Sharpe once owned every TE record despite never being known for his blocking.

 

[Ernol]

F&L did a post on his blog last year questioning whether Fitzgerald might be worth the very first pick in a dynasty start-up. Personally, I think the question is every bit as valid today after Fitzgerald put up yet another top-5 fantasy finish despite the clear erosion of Kurt Warner's abilities. So, is there anyone else out there who would consider taking Larry Fitzgerald with the #1 overall pick of a new startup?

Nice work SSOG. I regularly took him at #1 (by trading up or getting lucky) in a number of leagues last year (in 2 leagues, I took Fitz #1 and Calvin #2). This year, the market value of CJ3 is just too high to ignore so it would be borderline crazy to continue to take Fitz there (you could always trade CJ3 for Fitz plus something small). However, in a no trade league (which would be a very boring dynasty, I know), I would probably still take Fitz #1.

 

[Harjiran]

IMO Gresham and Cook need to be 1) and 1a) behind the current FF-relevant NFL starters (you can draw that line yourself). Strongly believe both will be beastly when their time comes.

I think Hernandez has much more upside than either of them. I think he is a much better route runner, has better hands, and seems to have a knack for finding soft spots in zones. I think Brady is going to take advantage of the mismatches this kid will create, especially in the deep middle. I do like those 2, but not as much as Hernandez.

Is Hernandez better than Ben Watson? I'm not knocking his skills but I'm wary of NE TEs in general. More so if Welker continues to come back strong, as is being reported. The buzz surrounding Cook was intense last year during training camp, prior to his injury. Of the three, with what we know today, Cook is the one I'd take as my TE2.

 

[Dave Larkin]

F&L did a post on his blog last year questioning whether Fitzgerald might be worth the very first pick in a dynasty start-up. Personally, I think the question is every bit as valid today after Fitzgerald put up yet another top-5 fantasy finish despite the clear erosion of Kurt Warner's abilities. So, is there anyone else out there who would consider taking Larry Fitzgerald with the #1 overall pick of a new startup?

In a heartbeat. Great post there which illustrates just how consistently great a player that Fitz has been in his career so far. I have no qualms taking him high in startups. I just did it twice recently. I believe I took him with the 5th pick in one league and the 3rd pick in another. And the reason? He's just such a safe option. Fitzgerald embodies consistent play week-to-week. From that point of view, it's an easy choice, and I hope he continues this pace he's on for many more years.