Dynasty Rankings (19 Viewers)

[ookook]

Well, I am not sure I can quite seperate talent from situation in the case of V. Jackson.

I terms of WRs in non-ppr, he finished in PPG:

2009 7th

2008 13th

2007 60th

2006 53rd

2005 146th

In terms of Dynasty leagues, your Value Score for him is probably about right given his age and how he plays. Somewheer in the 90 to 93 range I suppose (we could quibble about the exacts).

But in terms of either fantasy points produced or talent level played at RIGHT NOW, I hesitate to call him "elite". Because in the "right now" discussion of talent, age is not the same factor as it is in dynasty rankings and I think there are 5 to 8 WRs that are playing as well he is or better. For example, do I think he is better than Randy Moss or Steve Smith (CAR) this year? Maybe, maybe not. Boldin? Brandon Marshall? That is tough. But I would rather have Jackson going forward to be sure.

So I guess it depends on where one draws the line on "elite". I tend to lean toward Top 5 and I don't think that RIGHT NOW, he is there (yet). In a re-draft (and I know this is a dynasty thread) he would not be in my first 7 receivers off the board.

Perhaps we could agree he is an "elite prospect"...

 

[Tau837]

Look at Jackson's teammate, Marcus McNeil. Now, McNeil has been a bit up and down in the 3 years since his stellar rookie year, but he's still a great player at a premium position protecting the blind side of one of the most valuable players in the entire NFL... and San Diego isn't showing him the money, either. San Diego risking Philip Rivers' health like this suggests to me (and I'm not pretending that I'm the slightest bit unbiased on this) that A.J. is just drawing a line in the sand and taking a stand because he wants to remind everyone once again just who is in charge of the Chargers.

I think the jury is out on whether or not McNeill is a great player. He made the Pro Bowl in his rookie year, but really hasn't been particularly good since then. There aren't that many metrics that we can use to individually assess offensive linemen, but consider his ProFootballFocus ranks among all NFL offensive tackles in the past 3 years: #61 (2007), #35 (2008), and tied for #49 (2009). So IMO McNeill's situation is different from Jackson's. Jackson is a proven great player; McNeil isn't. I think A.J. Smith wants to see McNeill play this season before deciding what kind of contract he is worth.

With that said, while I don't question VJax's talent in the slightest, every day that passes it looks a little bit more likely that this might be a lost year for VJax owners. I still don't think it's happening. I mean, I know that the Jackson camp is adamant that he's prepared to hold out for 10 weeks... but you HAVE TO be adamant that you're prepared to hold out, or else you have no bargaining power. In order for a threat to hold any power, it has to be credible. If Vincent Jackson came out and said "man, I want a new contract, but I'm not prepared to hold out 10 games to get one", then San Diego would just say "great, then we won't give you one".At this point, there are five possible outcomes.1- San Diego gets VJax a new contract and he doesn't miss anything.2- SD stands firm, but VJax caves and shows up with minimal missed time (the Andre Smith/Michael Crabtree route)3- SD caves and VJax shows up with minimal missed time (the Emmitt Smith route)4- VJax is bluffing, SD calls, and VJax shows up with no contract and minimal missed time (the Walter Jones option)5- VJax is serious, SD stands firm, and VJax sits out 10 games (the Joey Galloway/Keyshawn Johnson route)As a VJax owner, #2 and #3 wouldn't be ideal, but for a proven NFL vet in a system he already knows and with a QB he's already developed a rapport with, they wouldn't be that big of a deal, either. #1 and #4 would wind up being nothing more than blips on the radar- I doubt they'd impact his production this year in the slightest. The only possibility that really troubles me right now is option #5... and I still think that one's a longshot.

Addressing these by number:1. I doubt San Diego will negotiate with Jackson unless he signs the tender, but I suppose it is possible. However, Smith has reportedly said Gates would get a new contract before Jackson, and, with the CBA up in the air, it doesn't seem like a great time to negotiate multiple big dollar contracts. So this seems like a long shot IMO.2. I seriously doubt Jackson will show up with minimal missed time now that his tender has been reduced by approximately $2.5M. And I seriously doubt A.J. Smith will relent and restore his original tender salary. So I don't see this as a viable possibility.3. I don't see A.J. Smith "caving" based on his past history, so I don't see this as a viable possibility.4. See #2.5. This seems by far the most likely at this point, as much as I hate to say it as a fan. I think Jackson was stupid to play it this way, but now that the tender salary was reduced, I don't think he really has much motivation to come back before late in the season. It is even debatable whether or not he needs to worry about getting the extra year of accrued service by reporting in time for the last six games. However, I do think he will want to report at some point that allows him to get any NFL suspension out of the way this year. Plus, he may want to be on the team in time to be ready to play in the postseason. So reporting after the first 10 games sounds about right.

 

[Ksquared]

Am I missing something? I don't think V Jax is going to hold out. It has been widely reported that the CBA had a poison pill that would only allow a player a year's credit as long as they are active 2 weeks prior to the first regular season game. Which is in August sometime. Am I misunderstanding this poison pill, because if I am correct - all the hold outs will end by that August date or they will not get another year of credit. I believe the week 10 deadline is from the old contract and superseded by this poison pill.

Maybe I have not understood this correctly, if so please help me out.

Thanks in advance.

 

[Tau837]

Can he serve the suspension while he's holding out?

I don't see why not. He can sign his tender at any point, at which point he'll be under contract and still holding out. As long as his tender is signed, I don't see why the suspension wouldn't start in Week 1.Roman Harper signed his tender today, and he's still talking about a training camp holdout.

No link, but I'd read elsewhere that any suspension wouldn't begin until after a holdout ended.

I would assume he would have to be under contract in order to serve a suspension, meaning he would have to sign his tender.

 

[Tau837]

Am I missing something? I don't think V Jax is going to hold out. It has been widely reported that the CBA had a poison pill that would only allow a player a year's credit as long as they are active 2 weeks prior to the first regular season game. Which is in August sometime. Am I misunderstanding this poison pill, because if I am correct - all the hold outs will end by that August date or they will not get another year of credit. I believe the week 10 deadline is from the old contract and superseded by this poison pill.Maybe I have not understood this correctly, if so please help me out. Thanks in advance.

It isn't clear how much accruing a year of service will matter to someone like Jackson. He already has five years of service. Obviously, it will depend on provisions of the new CBA, so I guess the question is whether or not it seems likely that the new CBA would establish six years of service as the qualification for some meaningful benefit (e.g., free agency).I have read in another thread that the provision you mention only applies to players under contract, which Jackson currently is not. However, that seems like a semantic argument to me, since we know that sooner or later he will again be under contract.All that said, it would be great if someone could explain the details of this issue.

 

[Ksquared]

Thanks for the response, so it is not as straight forward as I was led to believe.

 

[gianmarco]

Since he's no longer under contract, what's to keep another team from signing him?

 

[craxie]

I have read in another thread that the provision you mention only applies to players under contract, which Jackson currently is not. However, that seems like a semantic argument to me, since we know that sooner or later he will again be under contract.

You have to report by Aug 10 if you are under contract AT THAT TIMEif you sign later, the provision has no impact on you at all

 

[craxie]

Since he's no longer under contract, what's to keep another team from signing him?

he's a Restricted Free Agent, which means if another team signs him, they have to give the chargers draft picks equal to the level he was tendered at, in this case a 1st and 3rd. plus the chargers would have the opportunity to match the offered contractnormally you become unrestricted after 4 years of service, but the uncapped year bumped that up to 6, which is annoying to players like VJ and MM who have 5 and 4 years respectively and would normally be unrestricted right now

 

[Fighting Noles]

Fair enough. I am just aksing about V-Jax because he is the only one, so far, where neither side is willing to cave and also wondering if it gives any of those who are high on V-Jax pause about his actual talent compared to other top WR's.

I'm very high on V-Jax, and I have no doubts at all that his actual talent is elite. I don't think there are a handful of WRs better than him right now.

VJax is going into his 6th season his career high receptions is 68 and he's never had a double digit TD season..When is this "actual talent" going to show up? His numbers threw 5 years are less then guys like Santana Moss and Lee Evans.

It's crazy people call this joker elite.. He's far from it, (numbers don't lie) add in the fact he cant stay out of trouble, you have your reason Chargers are not giving in.

Oh, give me a break. Receptions are vastly overrated. He had more first downs than Brandon Marshall last year on 33 fewer receptions. That's amazing production.

Touchdowns? If you want to draw the line for elite at a random number like 10, then you can take Andre Johnson out of the elite discussion too.

In addition to finishing first in Football Outsiders' DVOA efficiency metrics, he also finished first in Pro Football Focus' ratings. If you don't like metrics, then watch the guy play. If you can't spot talent, then you can't be helped. His elite talent is undeniable.

Come on Chris - I have no problem if you or SSOG want to argue whether VJAX is "elite" based on talent & what you all see on the field. but basing it on the DVOA & PF Focus #'s BECAUSE they happen to help support your case in THIS instance is seriously flawed IMO.FLOYD finished 7th in both DVOA & PFFocus - Maybe Rivers is just very efficient at delivering a good deep ball & letting his big, tall WR's go up & get it (I happen to feel that's partly the case) - yet he is ranked outside your top 50 & received the SAME tender from the Chargers that VJAX did. In PFFocus #'s - BESS finished Top 10 & MUSHIN & CHAMBERS both finished TOP 25. Walter was in the top 25 of DVOA & Cotchery finished top 10 in both metrics I believe.

You can argue that recs. don't matter but they relate to the type of O that a team runs, or how much a team targets a certain WR & in FANTASY that does matter. Like Gianmarco said in his post, VJAX with fewer targets/recs than the others in the top 10 has much less margin for error. If Matthews ends up being better than LT (the past 2 years LT) & SD becomes more run oriented (Norvs' basic tendency IMO) does VJax get MORE targets?

Plus, on the "knucklehead" front, if this was Marshall "holding out" I can guarantee you it would be MUCH MORE of a "concern" to you & others. But it seems that since you like VJAX the contract situation, suspension (DUI's), etc. are "no big deal" & just part of the normal NFL bargaining process (the CJ & Revis situations aren't the SAME, since both were first RD talent & considered the BEST @ their respective positions, & much more valuable to their teams IMO). Maybe SD management doesn't feel the same & those things do matter to them when figuring in a player in their long term plans.

To not take those things into account when discussing DYNASTY value (on a WR you have #4) NOW (you yourself have said that these things - rankings - can be very fluid, I remember the huge amount of guff the poster got last year because he said he wanted Austin ranked over Ocho after his first two big games, yet now it is universally accepted) however doesn't seem to make much sense. I don't think any VJAX owner should be panicking & selling but I'm not sure anybody should be paying top 10 value to buy him now either.

I LOVE this thread & the whole Dynasty discussion - I think it is one of the MOST valuable things in the SP (& in FBGuys for that matter) but in this case I just happen to RESPECTFULLY disagree with you.

 

[craxie]

Come on Chris - I have no problem if you or SSOG want to argue whether VJAX is "elite" based on talent & what you all see on the field. but basing it on the DVOA & PF Focus #'s BECAUSE they happen to help support your case in THIS instance is seriously flawed IMO.

There are two questions:1. Is VJ an elite NFL talent? undoubtedly yes, I don't even see how anyone can seriously debate against it2. Is VJ an elite FF talent? this is certainly much more open to debate with the hold out and limited targets and 'knucklehead factor'

 

[Fighting Noles]

I wasn't really debating #1 - I WAS however debating #2, ESPECIALLY at this point in time and where he still continues to be drafted in Dynasty Startups.

 

[Billy Ball Thorton]

Fair enough. I am just aksing about V-Jax because he is the only one, so far, where neither side is willing to cave and also wondering if it gives any of those who are high on V-Jax pause about his actual talent compared to other top WR's.

I'm very high on V-Jax, and I have no doubts at all that his actual talent is elite. I don't think there are a handful of WRs better than him right now.

VJax is going into his 6th season his career high receptions is 68 and he's never had a double digit TD season..When is this "actual talent" going to show up? His numbers threw 5 years are less then guys like Santana Moss and Lee Evans.

It's crazy people call this joker elite.. He's far from it, (numbers don't lie) add in the fact he cant stay out of trouble, you have your reason Chargers are not giving in.

Oh, give me a break. Receptions are vastly overrated. He had more first downs than Brandon Marshall last year on 33 fewer receptions. That's amazing production.

Touchdowns? If you want to draw the line for elite at a random number like 10, then you can take Andre Johnson out of the elite discussion too.

In addition to finishing first in Football Outsiders' DVOA efficiency metrics, he also finished first in Pro Football Focus' ratings. If you don't like metrics, then watch the guy play. If you can't spot talent, then you can't be helped. His elite talent is undeniable.

Turn down the tool volume.

Last time I checked this is a fantasy football discussion. You seem to have tunnel vision for this guy and comparing him to Andre Johnson is a JOKE.

Comparing him to Marshall is just as funny. Let's not forget Marshall has had more than 1 bad QB throwing him the ball. Vjax on the other hand has one of the best.

Now I have read you downgrading Marshall for bad character issues but refuse to do so with Vjax.. This makes you look very biased in your ranking system and what apply's for one should apply to another.

So give me a break

 

[TitansFan10]

Fair enough. I am just aksing about V-Jax because he is the only one, so far, where neither side is willing to cave and also wondering if it gives any of those who are high on V-Jax pause about his actual talent compared to other top WR's.

I'm very high on V-Jax, and I have no doubts at all that his actual talent is elite. I don't think there are a handful of WRs better than him right now.

VJax is going into his 6th season his career high receptions is 68 and he's never had a double digit TD season..When is this "actual talent" going to show up? His numbers threw 5 years are less then guys like Santana Moss and Lee Evans.

It's crazy people call this joker elite.. He's far from it, (numbers don't lie) add in the fact he cant stay out of trouble, you have your reason Chargers are not giving in.

Oh, give me a break. Receptions are vastly overrated. He had more first downs than Brandon Marshall last year on 33 fewer receptions. That's amazing production.

Touchdowns? If you want to draw the line for elite at a random number like 10, then you can take Andre Johnson out of the elite discussion too.

In addition to finishing first in Football Outsiders' DVOA efficiency metrics, he also finished first in Pro Football Focus' ratings. If you don't like metrics, then watch the guy play. If you can't spot talent, then you can't be helped. His elite talent is undeniable.

Turn down the tool volume.

Last time I checked this is a fantasy football discussion. You seem to have tunnel vision for this guy and comparing him to Andre Johnson is a JOKE.

Comparing him to Marshall is just as funny. Let's not forget Marshall has had more than 1 bad QB throwing him the ball. Vjax on the other hand has one of the best.

Now I have read you downgrading Marshall for bad character issues but refuse to do so with Vjax.. This makes you look very biased in your ranking system and what apply's for one should apply to another.

So give me a break

I sincerely hope F&L ignores you. You need to go back and read in this thread for the last 15 pages or so. Maybe more... Do a search for Brandon Marshall, and you will see that he has been thru MUCH more than VJ. It is silly to compare the two's exploits. VJ is a saint compared to Marshall and you KNOW IT.

 

[Steed]

The V-Jax - Marshall debate has been rehashed over and over in this very thread. That's probably why F&L's getting a little irritated. This reminds me of the Slaton-CJ2k debate from last year.

ETA Titansfan beat me to it

 

[TitansFan10]

The V-Jax - Marshall debate has been rehashed over and over in this very thread. That's probably why F&L's getting a little irritated. This reminds me of the Slaton-CJ2k debate from last year.

Good call.

 

[T.Rex]

Really? Thats why Vjax weill be suspended this year and how many games will Marshall be suspended for... Oh yeah, zero!

Rankings are based of FUTURE projections not the past, but feel free to live in the past.

I play in ppr leagues and Vjax has NEVER even SNIFFED top 10.... Call him elite all you want but that means there 20 or so elite wr's in the NFL.

1- One of the best QB throwing to him yet still has put up mediocre stats. (1167 is not elite stats)

2- 5 years in the league no top 10 finish

3- 1167 recieving yards is a career year(forget receptions) I can see how you can compare him to AJ w/ that career best.

4- 2, DUII 's

5- At odds with team and looks to be holding out.

Yeah I can see ranking him top 10 in dynasty format...lol Keep sticking to the DVOA as thats all you have.

 

[PranksterJD]

I sincerely hope F&L ignores you. You need to go back and read in this thread for the last 15 pages or so. Maybe more... Do a search for Brandon Marshall, and you will see that he has been thru MUCH more than VJ. It is silly to compare the two's exploits. VJ is a saint compared to Marshall and you KNOW IT.

I totally agree that Jackson's character shouldn't be compared to Marshall's, though not many should. The question is whether Jackson could be compared to a pre-Milledgeville Roethlisberger. I'm not trying to say that DUI is the same as sexual assault by any means, but Roeth was a guy that most of us ( myself and F&L included ) ignored a potential red flag. Jackson's now got multiple DUI's under his belt, and the possible character concerns are being essentially thrown out as immaterial.I'm cool if we say that there are multiple levels of knuckleheadedness, but I think putting Marshall in the same bucket as Vincent is as incorrect as classifying Vincent in the same bucket as guys like Sidney Rice or Roddy White, who have no concerns whatsoever.

The V-Jax - Marshall debate has been rehashed over and over in this very thread. That's probably why F&L's getting a little irritated. This reminds me of the Slaton-CJ2k debate from last year.

Jackson has been debated, but since then he's gotten convicted for yet another DUI and is now threatening holdout. I'm with the other guys that don't believe the contract situation will come to a head, but its a valid conversation again because the facts are different. The debate about his talent level and the semantics around elite isn't necessary, but whether he should be downgraded in rankings for off-field concerns is very relevant.

 

[TitansFan10]

I sincerely hope F&L ignores you. You need to go back and read in this thread for the last 15 pages or so. Maybe more... Do a search for Brandon Marshall, and you will see that he has been thru MUCH more than VJ. It is silly to compare the two's exploits. VJ is a saint compared to Marshall and you KNOW IT.

I totally agree that Jackson's character shouldn't be compared to Marshall's, though not many should. The question is whether Jackson could be compared to a pre-Milledgeville Roethlisberger. I'm not trying to say that DUI is the same as sexual assault by any means, but Roeth was a guy that most of us ( myself and F&L included ) ignored a potential red flag. Jackson's now got multiple DUI's under his belt, and the possible character concerns are being essentially thrown out as immaterial.I'm cool if we say that there are multiple levels of knuckleheadedness, but I think putting Marshall in the same bucket as Vincent is as incorrect as classifying Vincent in the same bucket as guys like Sidney Rice or Roddy White, who have no concerns whatsoever.

The V-Jax - Marshall debate has been rehashed over and over in this very thread. That's probably why F&L's getting a little irritated. This reminds me of the Slaton-CJ2k debate from last year.

Jackson has been debated, but since then he's gotten convicted for yet another DUI and is now threatening holdout. I'm with the other guys that don't believe the contract situation will come to a head, but its a valid conversation again because the facts are different. The debate about his talent level and the semantics around elite isn't necessary, but whether he should be downgraded in rankings for off-field concerns is very relevant.

I can see that.

 

[Fighting Noles]

My point as well....

 

[GreatLakesMike]

So.... how about that Derek Anderson.

 

[samNhenry]

Do you know how I read this thread? I scan for F&L, SSOG, Thriftyrocker, EBF and a few other guys I know and trust. Those guys got there because I read their predictions/opinions and weeks, or months or years later their views were validated by actual results. F&L is the undisputed king in my mind. If theres a disagreement among the guys I trust I side with F&L.

I used to spend tons of time reading everything I could to compete in my leagues. Now I just make sure I read those guys and get the Footballguys summary email daily to keep up on news. I have won repeatedly against great competition in my local league and in expert leagues coming out of the forums. I've built dominant fantasy teams just by following F&L's advice.

Granted it is a discussion and that involves one or more people expressing opinions back and forth. However, I can see why F&L gets frustrated rehashing old arguments over and over again. Hell I get tired of re-reading them. Particularly when they follow logic like "value is based on the future, but hey here's proof that this guys sucks: look at his past and some other irrelevant stuff". Hey, thanks for the great insight. It seems like there are people here just for the argument (and a useless one at that) and not a relevant, insightful dynasty fantasy discussion.

To borrow and F&L phrase he used regarding Miles Austin: F&L is the truth.

Ignore him to your own detriment. I'll keep listening and continue tacking up championship banners. Dynasty is his world and we're all just living in it.

 

[samNhenry]

To put the argument regarding VJAX, Marshall and DVOA, etc. in context check these stats out:

I looked at four receivers. VJAX, Fitz, AJ and BM (Marshall).

I took their stats and broke them down based on per target basis. That way you can compare apples to apples. What did VJAX produce per target vs. the others on a per opportunity basis.

Check these out:

Yards/target(not reception)

[*]VJAX 2008: 10.98 yds/target

[*]VJAX 2009 10.73 yds/target

[*]Fitz 2008: 9.29 Yds/target

[*]AJ 2008: 9.26 yds/target

[*]AJ 2009: 9.16 yds/target

[*]BM 2009: 7.27 yds/target

[*]Fitz 2009: 7.14 yds/target

[*]BM 2008: 6.99 yds/target

TDs/target(not reception)

[*]VJAX 2008: 0.08 tds/target

[*]Fitz 2009: 0.08 tds/target

[*]Fitz 2008: 0.08 tds/target

[*]VJAX 2009 0.07 tds/target

[*]BM 2009: 0.06 tds/target

[*]AJ 2008: 0.05 tds/target

[*]AJ 2009: 0.05 tds/target

[*]BM 2008: 0.04 tds/target

So I was interested in what VJAX would have done for the past two years based on the same success rates listed above (for him) adjusted against the average targets Fitz, AJ & BM had in 2009 and 2010:

Year: AVERAGE(Fitz+AJ+BM)

2009: AVERAGE(153+172+155) = 160

2009: AVERAGE(154+170+181) = 168

For what its worth the results:

VJAX 2009 w/160 targets: 101 recs, 1717 yards, 13 TD's

VJAX 2008 w/168 targets: 99 recs, 1845 yards, 12 TD's

How can anyone say that a guy who does more with less opportunity is not more talented than a guy who does less with more opportunity? That is essentially what DVOA and those metrics represent. Based on this info it seems to me that while VJAX, Fitz and AJ belong in the same conversation, BM does not. He has done less across the board than any of them when you compare apples to apples. VJAX has matched Fitz and AJ.

I understand all the situational elements. I just ignore most of them. When it comes down to it I would rather have the superior talent on my team particularly in dynasty. When it all comes out in the wash talent always trumps situation in the long run. Based on these stats its hard for me to buy the argument that any WR in the league is much more talented than VJAX. VJAX is trending up and still on the young side for a WR. So yeah I'm glad I have him on the teams I do.

I do have two other ?'s for conversation:

1. AJ's catch % has declined from 70% in 2007 to 68% in 2008 to 59% last year. Why is that? Anyone know?

2. Fitz's Yards/catch dropped from 9.29 in 2008 to 7.14 in 2009. Is everyone attributing that to Warner's weak old arm?

 

[DigiVoX]

I appreciate F&L's dynasty rankings just as much as anyone.

The VJax vs. Marshall disparity does stick-out to me in his rankings. I regularly review a number of sources and their dynasty rankings, including FBG's, where the consensus ranking is an inverse of F&L's:

FGB Consensus Dynasty:

VJax #9

Marshall #5

vs.

F&L Dynasty:

VJax #4

Marshall #13

From the information that I have gathered, F&L ranks VJax higher partly because of his increased efficiency in the passing game as measured by his better yards/rec and by other sites' proprietary metrics. In addition, he ranks Marshall lower partly because of Marshall's knucklehead factor.

Both factors are more subjective then the iron-clad fantasy statistics that each receiver has put-up: receptions, reception yards, and touchdowns. In this case, VJax has had 2 WR1 seasons and Marshall has had 3 WR1 seasons.

On top of that, Marshall is a year younger than VJax.

If we have a younger, more productive, over more seasons receiver (Marshall) who is ranked significantly lower in F&L's rankings than others' rankings, just how significant are F&L more subjective measurements playing into the rankings of these two players? I would argue more so than they should.

They are his rankings so he is entitled to do as he pleases, but when the receiver he has ranked higher (VJax) also has hints of being a knucklehead, when does this come into play? For the couple of years that I have followed the rankings, I have yet to see VJax's knucklehead factor be considered. On top of that, there are hints that he may hold-out for the season. Maybe in the next rankings this will be considered?

A couple notes about Marshall: yes, the guy has been a knucklehead as noted by his Wikipedia entry where there are several run-ins with the law listed from Jan. '07 to Mar. '09. So, it has been a 1+ years since in last run-in. In addition, the guy has been paid like one of the elite WRs in the game. Would a professional organization (especially one overseen by Parcells) pay a guy, after doing their homework, almost $10 million a year for 5 years if they thought he wouldn't pan-out? While it can be argued, YES, they would, I would have to learn towards saying NO, they wouldn't.

One final note about Marshall: the guy grew-up in Florida. He played high school and college ball in Florida. He has family in Florida. My reasoning says that he is MORE likely to remain trouble-free when surrounded by family.

The gist: it seems to me that F&L should revisit his rankings for these two players. It appears VJax has more of a knucklehead factor than Marshall at this stage of their careers. In addition, Marshall has outproduced VJax over the course of their fantasy careers, plus Marshall is a year younger than VJax.

 

[gianmarco]

To put the argument regarding VJAX, Marshall and DVOA, etc. in context check these stats out:

I looked at four receivers. VJAX, Fitz, AJ and BM (Marshall).

I took their stats and broke them down based on per target basis. That way you can compare apples to apples. What did VJAX produce per target vs. the others on a per opportunity basis.

Check these out:

Yards/target(not reception)

[*]VJAX 2008: 10.98 yds/target

[*]VJAX 2009 10.73 yds/target

[*]Fitz 2008: 9.29 Yds/target

[*]AJ 2008: 9.26 yds/target

[*]AJ 2009: 9.16 yds/target

[*]BM 2009: 7.27 yds/target

[*]Fitz 2009: 7.14 yds/target

[*]BM 2008: 6.99 yds/target

TDs/target(not reception)

[*]VJAX 2008: 0.08 tds/target

[*]Fitz 2009: 0.08 tds/target

[*]Fitz 2008: 0.08 tds/target

[*]VJAX 2009 0.07 tds/target

[*]BM 2009: 0.06 tds/target

[*]AJ 2008: 0.05 tds/target

[*]AJ 2009: 0.05 tds/target

[*]BM 2008: 0.04 tds/target

So I was interested in what VJAX would have done for the past two years based on the same success rates listed above (for him) adjusted against the average targets Fitz, AJ & BM had in 2009 and 2010:

Year: AVERAGE(Fitz+AJ+BM)

2009: AVERAGE(153+172+155) = 160

2009: AVERAGE(154+170+181) = 168

For what its worth the results:

VJAX 2009 w/160 targets: 101 recs, 1717 yards, 13 TD's

VJAX 2008 w/168 targets: 99 recs, 1845 yards, 12 TD's

How can anyone say that a guy who does more with less opportunity is not more talented than a guy who does less with more opportunity? That is essentially what DVOA and those metrics represent. Based on this info it seems to me that while VJAX, Fitz and AJ belong in the same conversation, BM does not. He has done less across the board than any of them when you compare apples to apples. VJAX has matched Fitz and AJ.

I understand all the situational elements. I just ignore most of them. When it comes down to it I would rather have the superior talent on my team particularly in dynasty. When it all comes out in the wash talent always trumps situation in the long run. Based on these stats its hard for me to buy the argument that any WR in the league is much more talented than VJAX. VJAX is trending up and still on the young side for a WR. So yeah I'm glad I have him on the teams I do.

I do have two other ?'s for conversation:

1. AJ's catch % has declined from 70% in 2007 to 68% in 2008 to 59% last year. Why is that? Anyone know?

2. Fitz's Yards/catch dropped from 9.29 in 2008 to 7.14 in 2009. Is everyone attributing that to Warner's weak old arm?

Here's the thing, though. First of all, I don't think there are many people that are going to argue that V. Jackson isn't a top TALENT in NFL terms. Those numbers above bear that out. However, for fantasy purposes, there's just a bit more to it. While those numbers are great in illustrating how good VJax is, it's a faulty conclusion that Marshall just isn't that good because of the above. Just watching both of these guys, it's pretty clear they are both ultra talented WRs.

All that said, for fantasy purposes, it's great and all how well VJax performs on a per target basis, but if he's not getting enough targets then it doesn't matter how well he performs. His numbers will always be limited. Let's take this to an extreme. Using the same performance numbers above, would you rather take an "underperforming" Marshall with 170 targets or an exceptional V. Jackson with only 70 targets? That's the problem with VJax that I think those arguing for how good he is are missing. For reasons unknown, VJax has never gotten more than 107 targets in a year. It's simply impossible to put up elite FANTASY numbers (i.e. top 4-5) on that few of targets. And you'd think with as well as he performed in 2008 on 101 targets and how well he continued in 2009, his targets would go up, especially since he is the unquestioned #1 WR with only Gates as a target competitor. Unfortunately, that just didn't happen. I honestly don't have a good answer why. But, because of this, I simply can't rank the guy as a top 5 WR until an NFL team shows they're willing to get him the targets necessary to justify that high of a ranking EVEN IF he's performing at the level he is.

Marshall, OTOH, has had 154, 170, and 181 targets over the last 3 years. That's a substantial difference. And considering that SD doesn't want to pay VJax but Miami has made Marshall the highest paid WR in the NFL, then I'm willing to bet that Marshall is going to continue to see a similar high amount of targets.

If I even though that VJax would get 130 targets (not even that much in the grand scheme of things), I'd have him as a top 3 WR without question. But there is simply zero indication that's going to happen and in fact there's pretty good evidence based on the last 2 years that it's probably NOT going to happen. With as well as he's performed, he simply isn't targeted that often and that's a problem.

 

[samNhenry]

Here's the thing, though. First of all, I don't think there are many people that are going to argue that V. Jackson isn't a top TALENT in NFL terms.

Some do. The numbers were really just to clarify that. My intent was not to show that Marshall is less valuable. I calculated them all and then threw him in at the end. I shouldn't have dumped on Marshall (even the little bit I did). It was a petty reaction. I agree he is an elite talent. They are different types of WR's but both very good.

All that said, for fantasy purposes, it's great and all how well VJax performs on a per target basis, but if he's not getting enough targets then it doesn't matter how well he performs.

Understood and I agree. I guess I am more comfortable without a clear path to more opportunity. I don't know what's going to happen tomorrow let alone the rest of VJAX's career. He's producing at a top 10 level (non-PPR) for me as my number 2 WR (on the one team I have him on) and I am pretty awful happy with that. If he never gets more targets I still be happy with him as top 10 producer. If he does then all the sudden his production jumps and makes him that much more valuable. How do you weigh this out: Based on targets and production aren't Fitz, BM and AJ at their ceiling? Can you say the same thing for VJAX? Maybe you would because you don't see the path to more targets. Any thoughts?FWIW gianmarco, your a guy I look for and read too.

 

[thriftyrocker]

A couple notes about Marshall: yes, the guy has been a knucklehead as noted by his Wikipedia entry where there are several run-ins with the law listed from Jan. '07 to Mar. '09. So, it has been a 1+ years since in last run-in.

The stuff that happened at training camp last year counts and is much worse than a DUI. Giving the impression you are giving up on your team is pretty damnable. He's lucky that McDaniels either through business sense (maintain trade value) or desperation continued to play him and use him a lot.

One final note about Marshall: the guy grew-up in Florida. He played high school and college ball in Florida. He has family in Florida. My reasoning says that he is MORE likely to remain trouble-free when surrounded by family.

Opposite point is just as easy to make. Just replace family with "high school friends", "hangers on", or entourage.

 

[samNhenry]

I appreciate F&L's dynasty rankings just as much as anyone.The VJax vs. Marshall disparity does stick-out to me in his rankings. I regularly review a number of sources and their dynasty rankings, including FBG's, where the consensus ranking is an inverse of F&L's:

No doubt everyone is entitled to their opinion and I love a good discussion. More than anything what I was questioning is the value of some of the pointless (and based on the content of some posters points, baseless) arguing. It doesn't do anyone good. Putting words in F&L's mouth I would say its a risk vs. reward argument. I closed out my reply to Gianmarco with a question about VJAX's ceiling as compared to the others. Has he reached his peak? The others probably have. Not many more targets to go around and they probably won't significantly improve their effectiveness. Isn't VJAX's upside higher than Marshall's based on the fact that there is room for him to grow just by getting more involved?I think we can all agree that they have both made jackass moves and their floor is getting bounced if they really screw up. So assuming the knuckle head factor is a wash why wouldn't you rank a guy with more potential upside ahead of a guy who has showed you the best he has? Maybe the disparity is to much but it's an opinion not a fact. I usually stay on the sidelines but I guess the way that some people debate irks me. It nonsensical and makes it less enjoyable to post and read the forum. More than anything thats what I was railing about. Posts like yours and Gianmarcos are the kind we need more of.

 

[DigiVoX]

A couple notes about Marshall: yes, the guy has been a knucklehead as noted by his Wikipedia entry where there are several run-ins with the law listed from Jan. '07 to Mar. '09. So, it has been a 1+ years since in last run-in.

The stuff that happened at training camp last year counts and is much worse than a DUI. Giving the impression you are giving up on your team is pretty damnable. He's lucky that McDaniels either through business sense (maintain trade value) or desperation continued to play him and use him a lot.

One final note about Marshall: the guy grew-up in Florida. He played high school and college ball in Florida. He has family in Florida. My reasoning says that he is MORE likely to remain trouble-free when surrounded by family.

Opposite point is just as easy to make. Just replace family with "high school friends", "hangers on", or entourage.

I disagree. A DUI is worse. It would take a lot of immature camp antics to get suspended. On top of that, a DUI means a person put his life and the life of others at jeopardy. I will be the first to admit that Marshall acted childishly at camp last year, but let's not forget about McDaniels... the guy dismantled a great 2008 offense. He chased a franchise QB out of town prior to Marshall's actions.

I don't think McDaniels had much of a choice but to play Marshall. Eddie Royal disappeared. Would you really want Jabar Gaffney as your WR1? I guess we'll find out this season. The passing game in Denver may really struggle this season.

In most cases, family trumps everything else. He is an elite talent in the NFL, so he had some type of positive family/role models in his life while growing-up. Someone supported him through the process. He will be living among these people again.

 

[SSOG]

As always, a .That said, I do think you're missing something when people keep harping on receptions. It's not so much the receptions, but a combination of looking at both targets and receptions. The problem with WR's is that they don't touch the ball as often as RB's or QB's. Thus, the difference between 20 target or 20 receptions is a very big deal for WR's (compared to 20 carries or pass attempts for RB's and QB's). So, in order for WR's to be very productive, particularly when valued in the top 10, is to either get a large amount of targets/receptions or to produce at an elite level. So while receptions aren't necessarily a marker of how good a WR is (I'll qualify that later), a high reception total means 2 things for fantasy terms:1) The team likes throwing to that WR (usually because they are a high quality talent)2) That WR doesn't have to produce at an elite per target level to put up solid fantasy numbersSo yes, looking at it from an NFL standpoint, those WRs aren't as efficient, but that really doesn't matter for fantasy terms with the exception being that if a WR is producing very poorly on a per target number, they MAY go down. However, that's usually unlikely as we've noticed with guys like Welker and Marshall who, while having lower YPR than other WRs like the Jackson brothers, are still held in high regard. So why does that potentially knock down V. Jackson (or DeSean). The reason that fantasy owners are hesistant is that Jackson's value and production is tied to one thing: his elite production on the field. And any time a player performs THAT well (#1 WR on a pt/target basis over the last 2 years), then there's the chance he's not able to sustain that. Thus, if his production/target slips for whatever reason, then his overall production goes down (obviously). The problem is, he doesn't have enough targets/receptions to make up for that decreased production. This is why owners worry about WRs with low reception totals. They're waiting for the other shoe to drop. They're worried about that drop in production. And, unless a WR is very established, it's hard to trust WRs with only 1-2 seasons under their belt with top level production when they're only catching so many balls. In other words, V. Jackson has no margin for error. If his production drops, he now goes from a top performing WR to an average WR pretty quickly. High reception WRs buffer that because the number of balls they catch often makes up for any decreased production. And finally, most owners feel more comfortable looking at a high reception WR and seeing them repeating those reception totals than a WR like Jackson or Jackson repeating their elite production/touch.The last point is that his upside is capped with his limited targets/receptions. He's been producing at an unbelievable level and still barely cracked the top 10. There's really no room for his production to go up. So, the only way he can crack the top 5 by year's end is simply to see more targets. He really can't do much more than what he is with what he's getting. Unfortunately, there is 0 indication that's going to happen. Which is surprising given how well he's done with his balls, but SD isn't willing to throw him the ball more for whatever reason. It limits his upside and that's an issue for some owners. From an NFL standpoint, in terms of production, Jackson is most definitely elite. From a fantasy standpoint, while each reception doesn't mean much for a player's NFL team, it means a lot for fantasy owners because he's touching the ball more to put up more points and that's easier to predict to continue than for a player like VJax to continue his monster, elite production.

That's all well and good, and I could argue several key points in your post (a WR who averages 100 targets a season has no room for his production to go up? Huh?), but you're talking about fantasy production while the original post was about nothing but talent. I will agree that high target totals are a very valuable fantasy asset (and a huge reason why Larry Fitzgerald is my #1 dynasty receiver)... but if you want to measure a player's talent, receptions are not the way to go (unless you're using them in conjunction with other, more relevant stats- with a heavy emphasis on the other, more relevant stats).For instance, the following players have posted 90+ receptions in the last decade: Mike Furrey, T.J. Housh, Eddie Royal, Bobbie Engram, Marty Booker, Derrick Mason, Troy Brown. Most of those guys have done it multiple times. All told, those 7 receivers accounted for 12 90+ reception seasons... but if you lumped all 7 of those players' careers together, they would have only topped Vincent Jackson's ypg figure from last season ONCE (VJax had 77.8 ypg last year, Derrick Mason had 81.4 ypg in 2003). I can see someone making an argument for Derrick Mason, but is there another one of those 7 receivers that you would argue was ever more talented than Vincent Jackson?

Come on Chris - I have no problem if you or SSOG want to argue whether VJAX is "elite" based on talent & what you all see on the field. but basing it on the DVOA & PF Focus #'s BECAUSE they happen to help support your case in THIS instance is seriously flawed IMO.

Neither of it is basing it on DVOA. Both of us are basing it on what we've seen from VJax on the field. If you want, I can link to the posts in early November where I started geeking more and more out over VJax by the minute because every time I was trying to post something positive about him, he was going out and doing something even MORE positive. I'd start a post to praise a deep ball he'd just caught, and then he'd convert a clutch 3rd-and-10 over the middle. I'd make a post praising that, and he'd abuse someone in the end zone for a TD. It's not like I was getting real-time DVOA updates or anything- I was watching VJax play and marveling at how his game had really grown into his frame. At the end of the day, I use stats like DVOA and Y/T and the like to illustrate what I believe. I use them as support, not as a basis for my beliefs. As I always say, I use them to INFORM my opinion, not to FORM my opinion. I generally believe that if you think a guy is unbelievable, but you can't find any statistics to back it up, you probably need to re-evaluate your opinion and either adopt a different stance or think seriously about what the guy is doing that you're seeing and the statistics are missing.I've gone on record multiple times saying that DVOA is a brutal statistic for measuring receiver quality. It DRAMATICALLY underrates primary options and can often dramatically overrate secondary options. High-target guys put up terrible DVOAs as a matter of course, due to fundamental flaws in the system itself. With that said, on a broad strokes basis, it works fine. If a guy leads the league in DYAR, you know he's pretty good and that he had a pretty awesome season. If he's last, you know he was pretty terrible. And that was just one broad-stroke statistic among many that I dug up because some poster said that VJax was far from elite and that "the numbers don't lie". The numbers might not lie, but the numbers consistently list VJax as one of the best receivers in the game (well, every number except for the reception totals). It's not like I was basing my argument on any one of the statistics (DVOA, DYAR, Y/T, FD/T, Total FPTS over the last two seasons), but rather on the sum total of all the statistics. And, as I said, those statistics were not the basis of my belief that VJax is an elite talent, they were merely a convenient tool for supporting my position.

Now I have read you downgrading Marshall for bad character issues but refuse to do so with Vjax.. This makes you look very biased in your ranking system and what apply's for one should apply to another. So give me a break

Well, VJax and Marshall both have DUIs on their resume... so when VJax injures both hips, gets the police called on multiple domestic violence incidents with multiple women, gets cited for assaulting an officer and retail theft, puts his arm through a television while wrestling his brother, gets called out twice by his QB, has two coaching staffs suspend or threaten to cut him, makes a mockery of team practices (especially when they're open to the media), and has his own father call the police and say he threatened his life, then they'll probably be on equal terms when it comes to the downgrade they receive.

Really? Thats why Vjax weill be suspended this year and how many games will Marshall be suspended for... Oh yeah, zero!Rankings are based of FUTURE projections not the past, but feel free to live in the past.I play in ppr leagues and Vjax has NEVER even SNIFFED top 10.... Call him elite all you want but that means there 20 or so elite wr's in the NFL.1- One of the best QB throwing to him yet still has put up mediocre stats. (1167 is not elite stats)2- 5 years in the league no top 10 finish 3- 1167 recieving yards is a career year(forget receptions) I can see how you can compare him to AJ w/ that career best.4- 2, DUII 's5- At odds with team and looks to be holding out.Yeah I can see ranking him top 10 in dynasty format...lol Keep sticking to the DVOA as thats all you have.

Again, the entire crux of the "VJax's numbers aren't elite" argument is receptions. Everyone agrees that Brandon Marshall's stats are elite. As Craxie has already pointed out, over the last two years, here's a comparison of the two receivers:BMarsh: 2420 YFS, 16 TDVJax: 2345 YFS, 16 TDYes, in PPR leagues VJax's numbers suffer... but that's not a flaw with VJax as much as it is a flaw with PPR leagues. In point-per-completion leagues, Philip Rivers is an afterthought. In Point-per-carry leagues, Ray Rice was just an average RB1. Again, all of this "Vjax's production is mediocre" nonsense stems 100% from this whole nonsensical idea that reception totals are somehow the be-all, end-all measurement of receiver quality.

I do have two other ?'s for conversation:1. AJ's catch % has declined from 70% in 2007 to 68% in 2008 to 59% last year. Why is that? Anyone know?2. Fitz's Yards/catch dropped from 9.29 in 2008 to 7.14 in 2009. Is everyone attributing that to Warner's weak old arm?

1. The difference between 2007 and 2008 was pretty much negligible- that's the NFL equivalent of "no change". The difference between 2008 and 2009 was in large part a result of Johnson's ypc going from 13.7 to 15.5. Deeper routes = lower catch%. His yards per target remained essentially constant, which is what really matters.2. Yeah, it was Warner. This isn't an after-the-fact rationalization, either- even during the middle of the season we were talking about how Warner had lost the deep ball.

 

[gianmarco]

Here's the thing, though. First of all, I don't think there are many people that are going to argue that V. Jackson isn't a top TALENT in NFL terms.

Some do. The numbers were really just to clarify that. My intent was not to show that Marshall is less valuable. I calculated them all and then threw him in at the end. I shouldn't have dumped on Marshall (even the little bit I did). It was a petty reaction. I agree he is an elite talent. They are different types of WR's but both very good.

All that said, for fantasy purposes, it's great and all how well VJax performs on a per target basis, but if he's not getting enough targets then it doesn't matter how well he performs.

Understood and I agree. I guess I am more comfortable without a clear path to more opportunity. I don't know what's going to happen tomorrow let alone the rest of VJAX's career. He's producing at a top 10 level (non-PPR) for me as my number 2 WR (on the one team I have him on) and I am pretty awful happy with that. If he never gets more targets I still be happy with him as top 10 producer. If he does then all the sudden his production jumps and makes him that much more valuable. How do you weigh this out: Based on targets and production aren't Fitz, BM and AJ at their ceiling? Can you say the same thing for VJAX? Maybe you would because you don't see the path to more targets. Any thoughts?FWIW gianmarco, your a guy I look for and read too.

First, I'll clarify that I play almost exclusively in PPR leagues so that somewhat downgrades VJax. However, for the purposes of this discussion, I'm not really factoring his decreased receptions from a purely fantasy scoring level to keep this more about the actual players and not a ppr vs. non-ppr discrepancy. There are different things that go into rankings. Some has to do with risk and upside and some has to do with consistency. There's something to be said about players at a position that don't have #1 overall upside but have a very safe floor. I think that's how I view V. Jackson. Based on what he's done and how he's performed, there's really very little he can do to improve his per target production, so unless he does get in the 130-140 target range, he's NEVER going to be a top 3 WR. That said, he's also very unlikely to not be a WR10-12 guy barring injury or holding out. That characteristic, especially for WRs, is more valuable to some than others. This is why I don't necessarily have a huge problem with someone ranking VJax ~WR5 if they're doing so because of his safe floor. But, from most of the discussions, it SEEMS to me (and I may be mistaken) that he's being ranked that high more for upside and not for his safe floor. Unfortunately, I simply don't agree with that based on my reasoning above. His upside is capped moreso than any other WR BECAUSE he's performed so well. Without an increase in targets, he simply can't do more than what he's done because he's already doing so well with what he gets. And there is too much evidence at this point to suggest that he's likely to remain at the low target level than increase by 20-30 targets. So, for me personally, I just can't rank him that high when I see other WRs that have a higher ceiling and a very similar floor. So, when I look at Fitz and AJ, they may be at their ceiling, but that ceiling is the #1 WR overall for both of those guys. They've hit the pinnacle bc they've BOTH performed well AND gotten a ton of targets. What else could you ask for? And those guys will continue to get their targets and perform well. If you haven't seen, I've been incredibly high on Austin. Now, while I still love his talent, the addition of Bryant has to limit him from getting the necessary 140-150 targets. Before that, it was possible and it was why I was arguing he could end up the #1 overall WR. It just can't happen now. As for Marshall, he's definitely capped at his target numbers, but he actually has room to improve on his production per target. And I'd EASILY gamble that he'd improve on those numbers moreso than VJax increasing his # of targets. Marshall has the talent to perform at an AJ or Fitz level AND he has the appropriate number of targets to match their year end numbers. His floor similarly is as safe as VJax BECAUSE of all those targets. It's almost impossible to not be in the top 10 if you're getting 160-170 balls thrown your way. However, it's very possible for VJax to slip into WR3 territory if he doesn't continue his blistering production and continues to get 100-110 targets. For all these reasons above, if Steve Smith (NYG) comes out and gets another 160 targets his way this year, he's going to be a consensus top 10 WR. It doesn't even matter how well he does with those. It's a lot easier to pick out a WR that's highly targeted (150+) for 2 years in a row and say he'll continue than a guy who performs well over 2 years but doesn't get the targets. That production is more likely to tail off than the targets. A final thought. I was much higher on V. Jackson heading into 2009 than 2010 (ignoring the holdout stuff). The reason was, he performed well in 2008 and I thought he was a lock for significantly more targets. When that didn't happen despite continued elite production, it's a huge red flag that it will likely not happen while he remains in SD. If he were to change venues, all bets are off and I'd move him significantly higher in my rankings. Until then, his situation is a crutch.

 

[SSOG]

I disagree. A DUI is worse. It would take a lot of immature camp antics to get suspended. On top of that, a DUI means a person put his life and the life of others at jeopardy. I will be the first to admit that Marshall acted childishly at camp last year, but let's not forget about McDaniels... the guy dismantled a great 2008 offense. He chased a franchise QB out of town prior to Marshall's actions.I don't think McDaniels had much of a choice but to play Marshall. Eddie Royal disappeared. Would you really want Jabar Gaffney as your WR1? I guess we'll find out this season. The passing game in Denver may really struggle this season.In most cases, family trumps everything else. He is an elite talent in the NFL, so he had some type of positive family/role models in his life while growing-up. Someone supported him through the process. He will be living among these people again.

A DUI might be worse... but Marshall's got one of those on his record, too, so I don't see how that helps Marshall's cause. And in terms of knuckleheadedness, I'd say that behaving like a 2 year old at camp is probably worse than a DUI. In terms of danger to society, I think a DUI is one of the most reprehensible things someone can do... but the sad fact is that driving after having a couple of drinks is something of a societal norm. Everyone knows the consequences, but the statistics on just how many people still do it (whether they get caught) are, if you'll pardon the pun, sobering. Behaving like a 2-year old at your place of employment represents a far greater deviation from standard American behavior.Second, if moving to Florida and being around family is a good thing, then how do you explain Marshall's retail theft and assaulting an officer charges at UCF? Or the fact that he had the "Baby TO" nickname long before he came to the NFL (and it was only partly related to his play on the field).At the end of the day, too... personally, I just believe that VJax is a more talented player than Marshall. Knuckleheadedness aside, past production aside, supporting cast aside... I just think Jackson is a better receiver.

 

[SSOG]

For all these reasons above, if Steve Smith (NYG) comes out and gets another 160 targets his way this year, he's going to be a consensus top 10 WR. It doesn't even matter how well he does with those. It's a lot easier to pick out a WR that's highly targeted (150+) for 2 years in a row and say he'll continue than a guy who performs well over 2 years but doesn't get the targets. That production is more likely to tail off than the targets.

If Smith North is ever a top 10 dynasty receiver, I'm going to wear my keyboard out with Chris Chambers and T.J. Houshmandzadeh comparisons. High target totals do not automatically indicate a high floor.

 

[gianmarco]

That's all well and good, and I could argue several key points in your post (a WR who averages 100 targets a season has no room for his production to go up? Huh?), but you're talking about fantasy production while the original post was about nothing but talent. I will agree that high target totals are a very valuable fantasy asset (and a huge reason why Larry Fitzgerald is my #1 dynasty receiver)... but if you want to measure a player's talent, receptions are not the way to go (unless you're using them in conjunction with other, more relevant stats- with a heavy emphasis on the other, more relevant stats).For instance, the following players have posted 90+ receptions in the last decade: Mike Furrey, T.J. Housh, Eddie Royal, Bobbie Engram, Marty Booker, Derrick Mason, Troy Brown. Most of those guys have done it multiple times. All told, those 7 receivers accounted for 12 90+ reception seasons... but if you lumped all 7 of those players' careers together, they would have only topped Vincent Jackson's ypg figure from last season ONCE (VJax had 77.8 ypg last year, Derrick Mason had 81.4 ypg in 2003). I can see someone making an argument for Derrick Mason, but is there another one of those 7 receivers that you would argue was ever more talented than Vincent Jackson?

1. You misread what I stated. He has no room for his production PER TARGET to go up. Why? Because his production/target is already insanely high (and why you like him so much). That part of the equation is essentially capped for him. The only way his TOTAL PRODUCTION (different entity) increases is if his targets go up. I don't see that happening while he's in San Diego and I don't think you'd be able to find any evidence based on the last 2 years or anything that's been said or his usage to suggest otherwise. If he were to go to another team, all bets are off and I'd easily rank him in the top 3-4 based on what he's been able to do.2. I clarified that I was talking about fantasy production but the point was to explain why some people are hell-bent on focusing on receptions (the crux of your post). It's not that receptions are a measure of their talent but moreso that it's a big factor in what kinds of numbers a player can put up for fantasy purposes. Pretty sure we're on the same page here and not sure why you're calling out my post. It wasn't refuting your point and in fact I'm in complete agreement that he's a very talented receiver and that receptions by themselves do nothing to measure talent. No reason to suggest that I went off on a tangent or didn't understand what was being discussed. I was simply adding another viewpoint.3. Those WRs are mostly garbage and both of us know that. I know you're illustrating the point that receptions don't define talent. I agree with you. But, when you take a talented WR (like Marshall) AND give him lots of targets/receptions, then THAT is something you want to try and acquire. And you do so even if he's not producing at an elite per target metric like V. Jackson. That's why you go after a guy like Welker (preinjury) or Marshall or Reggie Wayne or Roddy White. If a guy is a focal point of an offense and has multiple seasons of high target numbers, then how well he's doing with those just isn't very relevant unless it's utterly atrocious. It's virtually impossible to not put up good numbers on 150 targets and the added production/target is bonus and upside. You won't hear me arguing with someone for putting V. Jackson so high on their ranking list even though I don't have him there because he has indeed performed at such a high level. But, it's my opinion that his upside is limited while he's in San Diego. The main reason for this is # of targets. Nothing else is holding him back.

 

[gianmarco]

For all these reasons above, if Steve Smith (NYG) comes out and gets another 160 targets his way this year, he's going to be a consensus top 10 WR. It doesn't even matter how well he does with those. It's a lot easier to pick out a WR that's highly targeted (150+) for 2 years in a row and say he'll continue than a guy who performs well over 2 years but doesn't get the targets. That production is more likely to tail off than the targets.

If Smith North is ever a top 10 dynasty receiver, I'm going to wear my keyboard out with Chris Chambers and T.J. Houshmandzadeh comparisons. High target totals do not automatically indicate a high floor.

Chambers is the exception because of how absolutely terrible he was at catching the ball. His catch % was so ridiculously low that he defied the laws of anything right in this universe. After a while, his targets disappeared because he was so bad with them. That will eventually happen. Houshmandzadeh was a top 15 WR for 3 years in a row when he saw his targets increased. Over the last 2 years, he's performed miserably despite high targets. Again, those last 2 years are more the exception than the rule. High targets generally indicate a high floor for sure. And Steve Smith actually did just fine with the targets he received last year. That's why if his targets remain that high, he'll be a lock to finish top 15 again (especially in ppr leagues).

 

[DigiVoX]

I disagree. A DUI is worse. It would take a lot of immature camp antics to get suspended. On top of that, a DUI means a person put his life and the life of others at jeopardy. I will be the first to admit that Marshall acted childishly at camp last year, but let's not forget about McDaniels... the guy dismantled a great 2008 offense. He chased a franchise QB out of town prior to Marshall's actions.

I don't think McDaniels had much of a choice but to play Marshall. Eddie Royal disappeared. Would you really want Jabar Gaffney as your WR1? I guess we'll find out this season. The passing game in Denver may really struggle this season.

In most cases, family trumps everything else. He is an elite talent in the NFL, so he had some type of positive family/role models in his life while growing-up. Someone supported him through the process. He will be living among these people again.

A DUI might be worse... but Marshall's got one of those on his record, too, so I don't see how that helps Marshall's cause. And in terms of knuckleheadedness, I'd say that behaving like a 2 year old at camp is probably worse than a DUI. In terms of danger to society, I think a DUI is one of the most reprehensible things someone can do... but the sad fact is that driving after having a couple of drinks is something of a societal norm. Everyone knows the consequences, but the statistics on just how many people still do it (whether they get caught) are, if you'll pardon the pun, sobering. Behaving like a 2-year old at your place of employment represents a far greater deviation from standard American behavior.Second, if moving to Florida and being around family is a good thing, then how do you explain Marshall's retail theft and assaulting an officer charges at UCF? Or the fact that he had the "Baby TO" nickname long before he came to the NFL (and it was only partly related to his play on the field).

At the end of the day, too... personally, I just believe that VJax is a more talented player than Marshall. Knuckleheadedness aside, past production aside, supporting cast aside... I just think Jackson is a better receiver.

Darrelle Revis faking an injury recently at practice and lying to his coach about it. Is he a knucklehead? Chris Johnson posting on Twitter that his contract negotiations are not going well. Is he a knucklehead?I guess we have different definitions of 'knucklehead'. A 'knucklehead' in the NFL to me is a guy who puts his NFL career at jeopardy because he did something stupid that could potentially land him a suspension; a hold-out could apply too. Unfortunately in today's NFL, there are lots of childish antics being conducted by a variety of players that are lame, but don't necessarily put their careers a jeopardy.

Marshall and VJax are both 'knuckleheads'. I would say at this point in their careers, VJax is the bigger knucklehead. Marshall hasn't had an issue for 1+ years, he has recently got a big contract whereas VJax is looking at a 4 game suspension and to make matters worse, may hold-out for the season.

It could be different for Marshall, but when I'm around family, I'm a better person. I would think someone who is in the NFL had some type of positive support structure around him while growing-up that encouraged him to stay motivated and work hard, even through hard times he brought upon himself during his young adulthood. As much of a knucklehead Marshall is, you have to think he has matured at least a bit through his turmoil. Returning home and being around those that have supported him during his adolescents and helped him get to where he is today doesn't hurt. I may be hanging on to a pretty insignificant argument, but I believe it has some relevance, whether slight or not.

There are many who do think VJax is the better receiver. That is valid. My original post was in regards to F&L's rankings of VJax and Marshall which could be revisited and possibly adjusted for reasons that I pointed out.

 

[az_prof]

I sincerely hope F&L ignores you. You need to go back and read in this thread for the last 15 pages or so. Maybe more... Do a search for Brandon Marshall, and you will see that he has been thru MUCH more than VJ. It is silly to compare the two's exploits. VJ is a saint compared to Marshall and you KNOW IT.

This is misleading. Most of the stuff that F/L cited as evidence of Marshall being a knucklehead is rumor/innuendo and some things that aren't even relevant. Without resurrecting that whole debate, VJ has a comparable "rap sheet," and his incidents are more recent and resulted in convictions in court. Marshall didn't have any run-ins with the law last year and he is finally happy on his team rather than a hold out.Personally, I wouldn't downgrade either player because it is too hard to predict and people's standards are too arbitrary. To me, use of performance enhancing drugs like Bowe was guilty of is the most serious issue because it suggests that the player's underlying talent may be a mirage--other people discount it as "diet supplements" or "just part of the game." And overall, when you look at the number of players in the NFL how many have been permanently or near permanently suspended/banned? Vick--check, and who could have predicted that? Plaxico--check, while he had had some issues no one was talking about him as a huge knucklehead who would end his career because of accidentally shooting himself in a club! Most players end up being suspended two to four games and that is the end of it. I can live with that for an elite player.

 

[ItsOnlytheRiver]

For all these reasons above, if Steve Smith (NYG) comes out and gets another 160 targets his way this year, he's going to be a consensus top 10 WR. It doesn't even matter how well he does with those. It's a lot easier to pick out a WR that's highly targeted (150+) for 2 years in a row and say he'll continue than a guy who performs well over 2 years but doesn't get the targets. That production is more likely to tail off than the targets.

If Smith North is ever a top 10 dynasty receiver, I'm going to wear my keyboard out with Chris Chambers and T.J. Houshmandzadeh comparisons. High target totals do not automatically indicate a high floor.

Over the last 2 years, he's performed miserably despite high targets. Again, those last 2 years are more the exception than the rule.

What? Sounds like you're making his argument for him. So the guy had high targets and was able to get production for a few years but eventually his lack of elite talent showed? Doesn't sound like the kind of WR I want to target for dynasty purposes. And secondly, you can't just state something is an exception to the rule as some sort of fact without explaining yourself.

 

[Go deep]

The V-Jax - Marshall debate has been rehashed over and over in this very thread. That's probably why F&L's getting a little irritated. This reminds me of the Slaton-CJ2k debate from last year.

ETA Titansfan beat me to it

Or like Kurt Warner-Joe Flacco

 

[BuckeyeArt]

I sincerely hope F&L ignores you. You need to go back and read in this thread for the last 15 pages or so. Maybe more... Do a search for Brandon Marshall, and you will see that he has been thru MUCH more than VJ. It is silly to compare the two's exploits. VJ is a saint compared to Marshall and you KNOW IT.

This is misleading. Most of the stuff that F/L cited as evidence of Marshall being a knucklehead is rumor/innuendo and some things that aren't even relevant. Without resurrecting that whole debate, VJ has a comparable "rap sheet," and his incidents are more recent and resulted in convictions in court. Marshall didn't have any run-ins with the law last year and he is finally happy on his team rather than a hold out.Personally, I wouldn't downgrade either player because it is too hard to predict and people's standards are too arbitrary. To me, use of performance enhancing drugs like Bowe was guilty of is the most serious issue because it suggests that the player's underlying talent may be a mirage--other people discount it as "diet supplements" or "just part of the game." And overall, when you look at the number of players in the NFL how many have been permanently or near permanently suspended/banned? Vick--check, and who could have predicted that? Plaxico--check, while he had had some issues no one was talking about him as a huge knucklehead who would end his career because of accidentally shooting himself in a club! Most players end up being suspended two to four games and that is the end of it. I can live with that for an elite player.

The problem with VJ is that with 2 DUIs on his record, he really can't just worry about what Goodell will do in the future. One more DUI during his career and the judicial system will be his biggest problem.

 

[ookook]

I am curious how many WRs folks would describe right now as "elite talents"? 3? 5? 7? 9? 12? 20?

How about a ballpark on the size of the group that VJax is being put into?

 

[Go deep]

I currently have VJax ranked 6th and Marshall 11th, but reading the last page or two of this thread has me leaning towards narrowing that gap a little. Of course Jacksons looming holdout and suspension has a bit to do with it as well.

 

[renesauz]

All that said, for fantasy purposes, it's great and all how well VJax performs on a per target basis, but if he's not getting enough targets then it doesn't matter how well he performs. His numbers will always be limited.

This is where this argument boils down, and keeps falling apart.THESE ARE DYNASTY RANKINGS. Talent is given greater weight then situation. Most of those arguing for downgrading VJ are doing so using situational arguments. VJAX is too young to let his ranking be dictated by situation unless that situation is abysmal...which it isn't.

Those who wish to knock him down a few pegs based on knucklehead factor have a much better argument, but clearly the "hit" on such a subjective measure will be highly variable.

Based on the data, I don't see how any reasonable person can rank him out of the top ten, and #10 to #5 just isn't worth 3 straight pages of argument. (FWIW, I agree with FL's take/ranking right now, but am a bit leery of keeping him there...there is a little smoke)

 

[gianmarco]

All that said, for fantasy purposes, it's great and all how well VJax performs on a per target basis, but if he's not getting enough targets then it doesn't matter how well he performs. His numbers will always be limited.

This is where this argument boils down, and keeps falling apart.THESE ARE DYNASTY RANKINGS. Talent is given greater weight then situation. Most of those arguing for downgrading VJ are doing so using situational arguments. VJAX is too young to let his ranking be dictated by situation unless that situation is abysmal...which it isn't.

Those who wish to knock him down a few pegs based on knucklehead factor have a much better argument, but clearly the "hit" on such a subjective measure will be highly variable.

Based on the data, I don't see how any reasonable person can rank him out of the top ten, and #10 to #5 just isn't worth 3 straight pages of argument. (FWIW, I agree with FL's take/ranking right now, but am a bit leery of keeping him there...there is a little smoke)

Of course. I'm a BIG proponent of talent over situation. But situation can't be ignored. And, as you keenly pointed out, we're not talking about dropping him out of the top 25. For me, however, I can't justify putting a player in the top 5 when his situation limits his upside and there's no foreseeable change in the near future (next 1-2 years). I've already stated I can understand the ranking, I just don't hold the same viewpoint. You can't take things to either extreme (looking at ONLY talent or ONLY situation) or else you can get burned. Finally, Jackson isn't old but he certainly isn't young either. Factor in that he's likely to miss most of this year and there's the possibility of a work stoppage next year and you're looking at a WR that will possibly be 29 going on 30 the next time he sees the field. Sorry but I simply can't rank that kind of guy over other TALENTS like Austin or S. Rice or Jennings or Marshall who not only have produced but are younger and also in better situations.

 

[BeTheMatch]

Of course. I'm a BIG proponent of talent over situation. But situation can't be ignored. And, as you keenly pointed out, we're not talking about dropping him out of the top 25. For me, however, I can't justify putting a player in the top 5 when his situation limits his upside and there's no foreseeable change in the near future (next 1-2 years). I've already stated I can understand the ranking, I just don't hold the same viewpoint. You can't take things to either extreme (looking at ONLY talent or ONLY situation) or else you can get burned.

Finally, Jackson isn't old but he certainly isn't young either. Factor in that he's likely to miss most of this year and there's the possibility of a work stoppage next year and you're looking at a WR that will possibly be 29 going on 30 the next time he sees the field. Sorry but I simply can't rank that kind of guy over other TALENTS like Austin or S. Rice or Jennings or Marshall who not only have produced but are younger and also in better situations.

Likely? I think not.

 

[DoubleG]

Of course. I'm a BIG proponent of talent over situation. But situation can't be ignored. And, as you keenly pointed out, we're not talking about dropping him out of the top 25. For me, however, I can't justify putting a player in the top 5 when his situation limits his upside and there's no foreseeable change in the near future (next 1-2 years). I've already stated I can understand the ranking, I just don't hold the same viewpoint. You can't take things to either extreme (looking at ONLY talent or ONLY situation) or else you can get burned.

Finally, Jackson isn't old but he certainly isn't young either. Factor in that he's likely to miss most of this year and there's the possibility of a work stoppage next year and you're looking at a WR that will possibly be 29 going on 30 the next time he sees the field. Sorry but I simply can't rank that kind of guy over other TALENTS like Austin or S. Rice or Jennings or Marshall who not only have produced but are younger and also in better situations.

Likely? I think not.

Many "experts" and websites now think it is leaning that way - especially now that the deadline to sign the tender has passed. So "likely" is a fair term. IMHO, one thing that could change V. Jax's numbers drastically would be an injury or rapid decline in Gates' productivity (i.e. abilities). Other than that, I think Jackson's numbers will remain about where they were in '09 - maybe a slight bump up, but until the offense shifts to a more WR-centric passing game, I think finishes in the WR5-WR10 range are more likely for V-Jax than top 5.

Right now I own DeSean Jax, R. White and Colston in a dynasty league - and I wouldn't trade either for V-Jax straight up, given some of his risks.

 

[Go deep]

Of course. I'm a BIG proponent of talent over situation. But situation can't be ignored. And, as you keenly pointed out, we're not talking about dropping him out of the top 25. For me, however, I can't justify putting a player in the top 5 when his situation limits his upside and there's no foreseeable change in the near future (next 1-2 years). I've already stated I can understand the ranking, I just don't hold the same viewpoint. You can't take things to either extreme (looking at ONLY talent or ONLY situation) or else you can get burned.

Finally, Jackson isn't old but he certainly isn't young either. Factor in that he's likely to miss most of this year and there's the possibility of a work stoppage next year and you're looking at a WR that will possibly be 29 going on 30 the next time he sees the field. Sorry but I simply can't rank that kind of guy over other TALENTS like Austin or S. Rice or Jennings or Marshall who not only have produced but are younger and also in better situations.

Likely? I think not.

Many "experts" and websites now think it is leaning that way - especially now that the deadline to sign the tender has passed. So "likely" is a fair term. IMHO, one thing that could change V. Jax's numbers drastically would be an injury or rapid decline in Gates' productivity (i.e. abilities). Other than that, I think Jackson's numbers will remain about where they were in '09 - maybe a slight bump up, but until the offense shifts to a more WR-centric passing game, I think finishes in the WR5-WR10 range are more likely for V-Jax than top 5.

Right now I own DeSean Jax, R. White and Colston in a dynasty league - and I wouldn't trade either for V-Jax straight up, given some of his risks.

How would experts know what Jackson is going to do when Jackson himself probably isnt sure what he is doing. Fact is alot of guys say they are going to hold out, and almost none of them do. I would bet good money Jackson plays most or all of the year(minus suspension).

Also, i would trade Colston for Jackson...actually, i am going to try to do that in one of my leagues right now.

 

[SSOG]

You won't hear me arguing with someone for putting V. Jackson so high on their ranking list even though I don't have him there because he has indeed performed at such a high level. But, it's my opinion that his upside is limited while he's in San Diego. The main reason for this is # of targets. Nothing else is holding him back.

See, I really just can't wrap my head around the fact that the guy has 208 targets over the last 2 years and you can't possibly envision any scenario where that could go up.VJax had 101 targets in 2008. In 2009, over 16 games his targets would pro-rate to 114. That's a noticeable jump- almost a target per game. Sure, he's still not in 160 target territory, but is another jump of 13 measly targets such a crazy thought? Is it really hard to envision San Diego becoming a pass first team with Philip Rivers at the helm? Hell, even the PITTSBURGH STEELERS became a pass-first team eventually. Antonio Gates is still nursing foot injuries... is it so hard to envision a scenario where he's hampered or limited? Darren Sproles isn't going to be around forever... is Vincent Jackson incapable of picking up a bit of the slack when Sproles leaves?8 targets per game over a full season works out to 128 targets. I think that's a perfectly reasonable, rational goal. In fact, it represents the same increase in targets from 2009 to 2010 that VJax saw from 2008 to 2009.

Chambers is the exception because of how absolutely terrible he was at catching the ball. His catch % was so ridiculously low that he defied the laws of anything right in this universe. After a while, his targets disappeared because he was so bad with them. That will eventually happen. Houshmandzadeh was a top 15 WR for 3 years in a row when he saw his targets increased. Over the last 2 years, he's performed miserably despite high targets. Again, those last 2 years are more the exception than the rule. High targets generally indicate a high floor for sure. And Steve Smith actually did just fine with the targets he received last year. That's why if his targets remain that high, he'll be a lock to finish top 15 again (especially in ppr leagues).

I don't think those guys are the exception. I think they're the rule. Mediocre talents who are in situations where they get a ton of targets will soon find their situation changing or their mediocre talent showing through. Housh was feasting off of the attention paid to Ocho. Chambers was benefiting from some premature hype and the fact that Miami's coaches were trying to shoehorn their offense into a poor fit. Eventually, reality caught up to both of them and they both started producing in line with their talent level. Smith North is not one of the top 10 WR talents in the game today. Personally, I don't think he's one of the top 20. I think he's a solid enough WR1 type, but I think over the long run his production is going to match his talent, and anyone who ranks him in the top 10 (no matter HOW MANY targets he's getting) will be guilty of grievous short-sightedness.

Marshall and VJax are both 'knuckleheads'. I would say at this point in their careers, VJax is the bigger knucklehead. Marshall hasn't had an issue for 1+ years, he has recently got a big contract whereas VJax is looking at a 4 game suspension and to make matters worse, may hold-out for the season.It could be different for Marshall, but when I'm around family, I'm a better person. I would think someone who is in the NFL had some type of positive support structure around him while growing-up that encouraged him to stay motivated and work hard, even through hard times he brought upon himself during his young adulthood. As much of a knucklehead Marshall is, you have to think he has matured at least a bit through his turmoil. Returning home and being around those that have supported him during his adolescents and helped him get to where he is today doesn't hurt. I may be hanging on to a pretty insignificant argument, but I believe it has some relevance, whether slight or not.There are many who do think VJax is the better receiver. That is valid. My original post was in regards to F&L's rankings of VJax and Marshall which could be revisited and possibly adjusted for reasons that I pointed out.

Personally, when the strongest character defense anyone can offer is that nobody has called the police on you in a year, that's a giant warning sign. I mean, you want to talk about damning with faint praise... and it only looks at the police, anyway. Sure, no police have been called in a year... but in that span we've had rumors that one coaching staff was ready to cut him outright, we've seen him put on the most shameful and embarrassing display I have ever seen any professional in ANY FIELD ever put on at their place of work, and we've had a second coaching staff suspend him under suspicion of malingering. If this is what Brandon Marshall looks like when his nose is clean, then what will he look like when it's not?As for your family... I get where you're coming from. My family is a grounding influence on me. They're my rock. I don't know Brandon Marshall's family, but from the incidents he's been involved in... yeah, not so much. For instance, that whole "I accidentally slipped on a McDonald's bag and put my arm through a television" incident? That was him wrestling his brother in a hotel room. And let's not forget the time his dad called the cops and claimed Marshall was threatening his life with a handgun. I'm pretty sure that Marshall was actually an innocent victim in that situation, but let's just say that doesn't exactly bode well for his relationship with his father. And if his family is such a good influence on him, why did Marshall get busted for retail theft and assaulting an officer while at UCF? Brandon Marshall's "Baby TO" nickname predates his NFL career, and let's just say that it isn't just a reference to his size or playing style.

This is misleading. Most of the stuff that F/L cited as evidence of Marshall being a knucklehead is rumor/innuendo and some things that aren't even relevant. Without resurrecting that whole debate, VJ has a comparable "rap sheet," and his incidents are more recent and resulted in convictions in court.Personally, I wouldn't downgrade either player because it is too hard to predict and people's standards are too arbitrary. To me, use of performance enhancing drugs like Bowe was guilty of is the most serious issue because it suggests that the player's underlying talent may be a mirage--other people discount it as "diet supplements" or "just part of the game." And overall, when you look at the number of players in the NFL how many have been permanently or near permanently suspended/banned? Vick--check, and who could have predicted that? Plaxico--check, while he had had some issues no one was talking about him as a huge knucklehead who would end his career because of accidentally shooting himself in a club! Most players end up being suspended two to four games and that is the end of it. I can live with that for an elite player.

No. Not even close. Not even close to being close. Not even close to being close to being close. VJax and Marshall have a comparable "rap sheet" in that both have DUIs on it... and that's where the comparison ends. I'm not talking about innuendo or rumor, I'm talking about the FACT that the Police have been called to Brandon Marshall's residence 15 times. I'm talking about the FACT that Marshall was busted for theft and assaulting an officer, and that another off-duty police officer witnessed a round of domestic violence with his current girlfriend severe enough to land them both in jail for a night (even if neither party filed charges).This isn't a "where there's smoke, there's fire" situation. This is a "where there's so much volcanic ash that all air travel on the entire European continent has been grounded, there's fire" situation.Also, Plaxico Burress isn't the example you want to use. F&L never came out and said "Plaxico Burress is going to take a concealed weapon into a public place and shoot himself with it", but for a long time Burress was the poster child for the "knucklehead discount". F&L said several times that Plaxico Burress was far more likely than an average player to do something stupid and unforseeable which would have a major negative impact on his fantasy value.Again, I get that there are wisps of smoke surrounding VJax where once there was nothing but pure oxygen. That's a bad thing, and it's something to be aware of and wary of. Personally, though, I'm probably 3-4 times more concerned about the pending holdout (and all that goes along with it) than I am about the pending suspension (and all that goes along with it).

I am curious how many WRs folks would describe right now as "elite talents"? 3? 5? 7? 9? 12? 20?How about a ballpark on the size of the group that VJax is being put into?

Fitz, Andre, VJax, Calvin, Randy, Smiff, Austin, Brandon. I'd call those 8 guys "elite talents". There are a lot of near-elite talents out there (Rice, Crabs, Desean, Roddy), but I think those are the 8 guys who would just laugh at the mere idea of a defensive coordinator creating a game-plan that called for single coverage.Really, though, this is a golden era for WRs. I can't think of any point in the last 20 years that saw such a glut of talented young receivers.

 

[SSOG]

How would experts know what Jackson is going to do when Jackson himself probably isnt sure what he is doing. Fact is alot of guys say they are going to hold out, and almost none of them do. I would bet good money Jackson plays most or all of the year(minus suspension).

Agreed. This is the same media that was telling us Texas to the Pac-10 was a done deal... while their own bosses were busy engaging in closed-door negotiations to ensure that Texas stayed in the Big 12.Lots of guys threaten to hold out... and it usually seems like a pretty credible threat. It *HAS* to be a credible threat, because a threat without credibility is no threat at all. Vincent Jackson has to make it look like he's ready to sit out an entire season... even if he's not. Very few holdouts actually last into the regular season, and I'd be surprised if VJax's was the exception rather than the rule. I'm afraid of the possibility, but I don't yet think it's a likelihood.

 

[Jail]

So with all this talk about VJax missing a lot of time this year, how about some thoughts on whether or not Naanee or Davis can seize an opportunity? My first pick would be Davis, but the guy just can't stay healthy. He seemed to have a nice offseason and then he gets a concussion. Did he have injury problems at LSU? Naanee probably has more athletic ability, but he is missing his chance while sitting out an injury of his own.

Anyone have any opinions on either one?

Just to be clear: I realize this is deep sea fishing here. VJax's absence is more likely to create opportunity for Gates, Mathews, Sproles & Floyd. I'm talking about waiver wire/late draft flyer here.