Dynasty Rankings (5 Viewers)

[humpback]

I see. I think part of my mindset here is that I picked up Slaton very cheap before he blew up in 2008, saw him as a good sell high player, and traded him for a more talented player. So part of my reasoning is based on that - which is obviously irrelevant. Still, don't you think this is more of a question of a good player being in a perfect situation rather than a phenomenal talent?

Yes, that's exactly what I was saying. And that has a ton of value in Dynasty leagues. A good player in a perfect situation can have more value over the next three years than a great talent in a mediocre situation.

Then I am interested in your take on the Foster / Jonathan Stewart debate in this thread. No one would argue that Foster is as talented as Stewart. But Foster's situation is better. Are you saying you'd trade Stewart for Foster?

Can't you just check his latest dynasty rankings for the answer to that? He posted them over the weekend. He had Foster at RB19 in Tier 4 and Stewart at RB7 in Tier 2. I seriously doubt one game closed that gap.

It's a rhetorical question. I know he has Stewart ranked much higher than Foster. That's why I asked him to reconcile his posts on this board vs. his rankings.

When did he ever say he'd trade Stewart for Foster anyway?

 

[Tau837]

I see. I think part of my mindset here is that I picked up Slaton very cheap before he blew up in 2008, saw him as a good sell high player, and traded him for a more talented player. So part of my reasoning is based on that - which is obviously irrelevant. Still, don't you think this is more of a question of a good player being in a perfect situation rather than a phenomenal talent?

Yes, that's exactly what I was saying. And that has a ton of value in Dynasty leagues. A good player in a perfect situation can have more value over the next three years than a great talent in a mediocre situation.

Then I am interested in your take on the Foster / Jonathan Stewart debate in this thread. No one would argue that Foster is as talented as Stewart. But Foster's situation is better. Are you saying you'd trade Stewart for Foster?

Can't you just check his latest dynasty rankings for the answer to that? He posted them over the weekend. He had Foster at RB19 in Tier 4 and Stewart at RB7 in Tier 2. I seriously doubt one game closed that gap.

It's a rhetorical question. I know he has Stewart ranked much higher than Foster. That's why I asked him to reconcile his posts on this board vs. his rankings.

What's to reconcile? RB19 is a great dynasty prospect. Why wouldn't he be posting great things about him?

 

[jdoggydogg]

When did he ever say he'd trade Stewart for Foster anyway?

I never claimed he said that.

 

[humpback]

When did he ever say he'd trade Stewart for Foster anyway?

I never claimed he said that.

So what is there to reconcile?

 

[Fear & Loathing]

I see. I think part of my mindset here is that I picked up Slaton very cheap before he blew up in 2008, saw him as a good sell high player, and traded him for a more talented player. So part of my reasoning is based on that - which is obviously irrelevant. Still, don't you think this is more of a question of a good player being in a perfect situation rather than a phenomenal talent?

Yes, that's exactly what I was saying. And that has a ton of value in Dynasty leagues. A good player in a perfect situation can have more value over the next three years than a great talent in a mediocre situation.

Then I am interested in your take on the Foster / Jonathan Stewart debate in this thread. No one would argue that Foster is as talented as Stewart. But Foster's situation is better. Are you saying you'd trade Stewart for Foster?

If I've been sitting on a powder-keg like Stewart, I would not trade him for Foster. If I was a contender this season with Foster in my starting lineup, I'd definitely hesitate to deal him away for Stewart.Not what you want to hear, I know.

 

[benm3218]

I see. I think part of my mindset here is that I picked up Slaton very cheap before he blew up in 2008, saw him as a good sell high player, and traded him for a more talented player. So part of my reasoning is based on that - which is obviously irrelevant. Still, don't you think this is more of a question of a good player being in a perfect situation rather than a phenomenal talent?

Yes, that's exactly what I was saying. And that has a ton of value in Dynasty leagues. A good player in a perfect situation can have more value over the next three years than a great talent in a mediocre situation.

Then I am interested in your take on the Foster / Jonathan Stewart debate in this thread. No one would argue that Foster is as talented as Stewart. But Foster's situation is better. Are you saying you'd trade Stewart for Foster?

If I've been sitting on a powder-keg like Stewart, I would not trade him for Foster. If I was a contender this season with Foster in my starting lineup, I'd definitely hesitate to deal him away for Stewart.Not what you want to hear, I know.

No this makes complete and total sense. It is what I was getting at earlier. I am not in a rush to trade guys as fast as I can in every situation... This situation seems like it warrants a wait and see or ride for awhile.

 

[EBF]

Maybe I shouldn't have defended Mark Sanchez. Yeesh.

Apparently he enrolled in the same "Checkdown University" courses as Trent Edwards.

 

[SSOG]

Meanwhile, Marshall got what was at the time the biggest WR contract ever - the same per year as what Larry got, and an extra year - in addition to the 2nd round pick that Miami gave up.

Not even close. It may have originally been reported that way by some outlets hearing from Marshall's agent, but the guaranteed money isn't even close.

Fine - perhaps it was hyperbole, but that's irrelevant to the point I was making. The salient point is that Marshall got $50m/5yrs with $26m guaranteed, while VJax didn't... VJ's agents have explicitly named Marhsall's contract as a benchmark, and a number of teams has said they don't want to pay him that money. And SSOG pointed to THAT - the fact that VJ WANTS, but doesn't HAVE, the deal that Marshall already has - as evidence that VJ was elite.

Again, I'm extremely confident that VJax's next contract is in the Brandon Marshall neighborhood. I'd bet on it. Vincent Jackson has said he wants a contract in that neighborhood, and teams are still interested, which means they think he must be worth a contract in that neighborhood. They haven't hammered out the specifics yet, but they will, and when they do, Vincent Jackson will be one of the 5 highest-paid WRs in the NFL. Is he yet? Of course not, but isn't this whole hobby about anticipating what's going to happen before it happens?

 

[basher]

Maybe I shouldn't have defended Mark Sanchez. Yeesh. Apparently he enrolled in the same "Checkdown University" courses as Trent Edwards.

but hey .... didn't he once lead the league in poise?

 

[GreatLakesMike]

Maybe I shouldn't have defended Mark Sanchez. Yeesh. Apparently he enrolled in the same "Checkdown University" courses as Trent Edwards.

but hey .... didn't he once lead the league in poise?

I thought I was watching Brady Quinn.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Todd Haley exposed as the new Mangini. Love that the Chiefs crowd was savvy to it for the first three series, too.

 

[moderated]

Maybe I shouldn't have defended Mark Sanchez. Yeesh. Apparently he enrolled in the same "Checkdown University" courses as Trent Edwards.

but hey .... didn't he once lead the league in poise?

I thought I was watching Brady Quinn.

I was thinking david carr.

 

[jdoggydogg]

I see. I think part of my mindset here is that I picked up Slaton very cheap before he blew up in 2008, saw him as a good sell high player, and traded him for a more talented player. So part of my reasoning is based on that - which is obviously irrelevant. Still, don't you think this is more of a question of a good player being in a perfect situation rather than a phenomenal talent?

Yes, that's exactly what I was saying. And that has a ton of value in Dynasty leagues. A good player in a perfect situation can have more value over the next three years than a great talent in a mediocre situation.

Then I am interested in your take on the Foster / Jonathan Stewart debate in this thread. No one would argue that Foster is as talented as Stewart. But Foster's situation is better. Are you saying you'd trade Stewart for Foster?

If I've been sitting on a powder-keg like Stewart, I would not trade him for Foster. If I was a contender this season with Foster in my starting lineup, I'd definitely hesitate to deal him away for Stewart.Not what you want to hear, I know.

I don't mind hearing that. I didn't have an agenda when I asked the question.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Finally stopped complaining about rough seas, stayed in Saturday night, and brought the ship in: Updated Dynasty ranks.

Questions:

1. Is this the place you will maintain updated rankings from here forward (i.e., is Sons of Tundra history)?

2. Have you decided to get rid of value scores?

3. How will you indicate risers and fallers in this format in future updates? (Or will you?)

A few comments/questions about the rankings:

1. Surprised to see Henne at #21; I thought he would be higher. You'd really rather have Carson Palmer? Your previous rankings had him at QB16. What led you to drop him?

2. Surprised to see Favre at #22; are you assuming he will play beyond this season? Hard to believe you'd rather have him than all of the guys ranked below him.

3. Randy Moss seems a bit high at #7, given he is 33 and we don't know where he will play next season.

Answers:1. I wish I knew. I can't see the Sons of the Tundra blog being updated regularly throughout the season because I just don't have time for it. There was some back-room talk of me joining SSOG at DynastyRankings.Net, but my commitment to Rotoworld has been bit of stumbling block there and we've never been able to reach a sensible way to get around that. I've talked to Rotoworld about carving out a place for me to post updated Dynasty Ranks for free, and they made vague agreements to do that once the site relaunches with a new look -- which should be shortly. I will continue to harp on them if they don't get it set up.

2. I would like to find a way to keep the value scores, but I was more interested in expediency with the most recent rankings. I felt like I should get them out before the start of the season even if I didn't have time to do value scores, ages, etc. I'll try to keep that info in there in the future.

3. I don't have plans to incorporate risers and falls. I do a weekly column on Rotoworld's Season Pass subscription service that covers all of the risers and fallers. It wouldn't be fair to Rotoworld to put that info out for free, and I don't have a way to get around that without doubling the time that I put into it.

Comments:

1. I was never as high as everyone else on Henne, so when Parcells reportedly threw him under the bus, it got my attention. I just don't see Henne as a guy who will ever be elite. At this point, I'd probably rather carry Carson Palmer, but I'm not crazy about him either.

2. Favre's value is fully dependent on roster specifics. I have him as my starter in one league where I'm a contender, and I wouldn't trade him for several of the QBs I have ranked in front of him, much less those behind him.

3. I struggled with Moss' ranking, but it came down to nobody behind him had a great argument for being above him. I think Moss has a difference-making season left in him this year, and I think he has more top-10 seasons left in his career regardless of where he ends up. I'm also not writing off a return to New England just yet. His ranking probably comes down to the fact that I'm more interested in winning leagues than building the prettiest roster for the next five years.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

I don't mind hearing that. I didn't have an agenda when I asked the question.

I just meant it could be interpreted as a waffling answer, and it seemed like you wanted a straight yes/no response.

 

[Tau837]

Finally stopped complaining about rough seas, stayed in Saturday night, and brought the ship in: Updated Dynasty ranks.

Questions:

1. Is this the place you will maintain updated rankings from here forward (i.e., is Sons of Tundra history)?

2. Have you decided to get rid of value scores?

3. How will you indicate risers and fallers in this format in future updates? (Or will you?)

A few comments/questions about the rankings:

1. Surprised to see Henne at #21; I thought he would be higher. You'd really rather have Carson Palmer? Your previous rankings had him at QB16. What led you to drop him?

2. Surprised to see Favre at #22; are you assuming he will play beyond this season? Hard to believe you'd rather have him than all of the guys ranked below him.

3. Randy Moss seems a bit high at #7, given he is 33 and we don't know where he will play next season.

Answers:1. I wish I knew. I can't see the Sons of the Tundra blog being updated regularly throughout the season because I just don't have time for it. There was some back-room talk of me joining SSOG at DynastyRankings.Net, but my commitment to Rotoworld has been bit of stumbling block there and we've never been able to reach a sensible way to get around that. I've talked to Rotoworld about carving out a place for me to post updated Dynasty Ranks for free, and they made vague agreements to do that once the site relaunches with a new look -- which should be shortly. I will continue to harp on them if they don't get it set up.

2. I would like to find a way to keep the value scores, but I was more interested in expediency with the most recent rankings. I felt like I should get them out before the start of the season even if I didn't have time to do value scores, ages, etc. I'll try to keep that info in there in the future.

3. I don't have plans to incorporate risers and falls. I do a weekly column on Rotoworld's Season Pass subscription service that covers all of the risers and fallers. It wouldn't be fair to Rotoworld to put that info out for free, and I don't have a way to get around that without doubling the time that I put into it.

Comments:

1. I was never as high as everyone else on Henne, so when Parcells reportedly threw him under the bus, it got my attention. I just don't see Henne as a guy who will ever be elite. At this point, I'd probably rather carry Carson Palmer, but I'm not crazy about him either.

2. Favre's value is fully dependent on roster specifics. I have him as my starter in one league where I'm a contender, and I wouldn't trade him for several of the QBs I have ranked in front of him, much less those behind him.

3. I struggled with Moss' ranking, but it came down to nobody behind him had a great argument for being above him. I think Moss has a difference-making season left in him this year, and I think he has more top-10 seasons left in his career regardless of where he ends up. I'm also not writing off a return to New England just yet. His ranking probably comes down to the fact that I'm more interested in winning leagues than building the prettiest roster for the next five years.

Thanks for the answers. IMO more of this kind of discussion would be a great thing for this thread.

 

[SSOG]

Finished up my first-run rankings update over on DR.net. Hit me up with thoughts, comments, questions, critiques, etc, and I'll continue to tweak through the week.

Also, other than getting our rankings updated early so everyone has time to digest in time for waivers, what would you guys like to see from us? How should I be prioritizing my time in a manner that's most beneficial for everyone?

 

[jdoggydogg]

I don't mind hearing that. I didn't have an agenda when I asked the question.

I just meant it could be interpreted as a waffling answer, and it seemed like you wanted a straight yes/no response.

Nah. I didn't interpret it as waffling

 

[Riffraff]

Finished up my first-run rankings update over on DR.net. Hit me up with thoughts, comments, questions, critiques, etc, and I'll continue to tweak through the week.

Joe Webb, your #115 WR and no rank as a QB. No thoughts on him as a guy to stash in Minny? Favre can't play forever and Jackson is a free agent. Maybe at least a small blurb about Chilly's manlove for TJ?

 

[basher]

Finished up my first-run rankings update over on DR.net. Hit me up with thoughts, comments, questions, critiques, etc, and I'll continue to tweak through the week.

Joe Webb, your #115 WR and no rank as a QB. No thoughts on him as a guy to stash in Minny? Favre can't play forever and Jackson is a free agent. Maybe at least a small blurb about Chilly's manlove for TJ?

webb is light years from becoming a consistent thrower. Also, bchilly has proven that QB cultivation is not the strong suit it was supposed to be.

 

[SSOG]

Finished up my first-run rankings update over on DR.net. Hit me up with thoughts, comments, questions, critiques, etc, and I'll continue to tweak through the week.

Joe Webb, your #115 WR and no rank as a QB. No thoughts on him as a guy to stash in Minny? Favre can't play forever and Jackson is a free agent. Maybe at least a small blurb about Chilly's manlove for TJ?

I have a very hard time getting excited about Webb. He's a 6th round QB slash WR slash QB again playing for a franchise that has yet to convince me that they know what they're doing. He reportedly looked awful in camps. I suppose an argument could be made that he should be a 2-value player instead of a 1-value player, but to be honest, I really haven't seen a single reason to be excited enough about him to care.

 

[EBF]

I own Hester in a couple leagues and would gladly trade him for Johnny Knox. After watching the Bears in week one I think Knox is clearly the WR most likely to become a reliable FF starter this season. Even Devin Aromashodu looks like he'll be a bigger factor in Chicago's offense than Hester (although he might not keep getting so many looks if he doesn't start catching some of them).

Also, Brandon Tate looked pretty nifty on that KR TD. He's a great throw-in candidate if his owner is a non-believer.

 

[SSOG]

I own Hester in a couple leagues and would gladly trade him for Johnny Knox. After watching the Bears in week one I think Knox is clearly the WR most likely to become a reliable FF starter this season. Even Devin Aromashodu looks like he'll be a bigger factor in Chicago's offense than Hester (although he might not keep getting so many looks if he doesn't start catching some of them). Also, Brandon Tate looked pretty nifty on that KR TD. He's a great throw-in candidate if his owner is a non-believer.

Yeah, it's obviously becoming harder to keep the faith with Devin Hester, but I'm still not ready to bury him. I still think he can and will be a starting-caliber receiver in the NFL.

 

[Tau837]

Yeah, it's obviously becoming harder to keep the faith with Devin Hester, but I'm still not ready to bury him. I still think he can and will be a starting-caliber receiver in the NFL.

Have disagreed on Hester from day one.

 

[D'OHtis]

Maybe I shouldn't have defended Mark Sanchez. Yeesh. Apparently he enrolled in the same "Checkdown University" courses as Trent Edwards.

Or Matt Leinart.Might be a USC thing.

 

[gheemony]

Tell me more about Mike Vick. I have Kolb in a start 2 QB league, so pickings for week 2 replacement are slim. I dismissed Vick as just a bye week fill in, but the talk of him starting somewhere next year intrigues me. I still struggle with that notion because of his age, potential off-the-field issues ending his career, and him ending up in a bad situation. But I'd love to hear more about why he deserves to be one of the top backups.

How do Dixon and Max Hall compare? Is the disparity because Hall may have a long-term starting job sooner?

 

[SSOG]

Yeah, it's obviously becoming harder to keep the faith with Devin Hester, but I'm still not ready to bury him. I still think he can and will be a starting-caliber receiver in the NFL.

Have disagreed on Hester from day one.

I know. Luckily for Hester, that means I've been applying the obligatory "JWB disagrees" penalty since day 1, and there's no need to apply it a second time.

 

[SSOG]

Tell me more about Mike Vick. I have Kolb in a start 2 QB league, so pickings for week 2 replacement are slim. I dismissed Vick as just a bye week fill in, but the talk of him starting somewhere next year intrigues me. I still struggle with that notion because of his age, potential off-the-field issues ending his career, and him ending up in a bad situation. But I'd love to hear more about why he deserves to be one of the top backups. How do Dixon and Max Hall compare? Is the disparity because Hall may have a long-term starting job sooner?

Vick's 30- he's not old. He's essentially 6 months older than Eli Manning and 6 months younger than Carson Palmer. Plus, he's the one guy where it doesn't really matter what situation he lands in. Give him good receivers, give him bad receivers, give him a good line, give him a bad line, either way he's still scoring his points with his legs on busted plays. He's started 4 seasons, and he's finished those seasons 3rd, 10th, 11th, and 3rd.The big difference between Dixon and Hall, in my mind, is that Hall has a lot of clarity in his situation. All Hall has to do is beat out Derrick Anderson- hardly a tall order. After he does, he's got Fitzgerald/Breaston/Doucet/Williams/Roberts/Hightower to throw to. Easy path, clear reward, quick payoff. As for Dixon, there's no chance in hell he beats out Ben Roethlisberger, so he's essentially auditioning for a second team somewhere down the road... but who will that second team be, and when will he get that chance? Meanwhile, you're forced to tie up a roster spot on him while waiting to find out.

 

[HenryMuto]

Amazing in the high stakes FFPC $750 and $1250 dynasty drafts this year Foster went in the 10th, 12th and 15th round.

Unfortuantly for me I took Maroney back in July in the 9th round while Foster was on the board then he went in the 10th.

Naanee looks like another nice prospect he went in the 18th round of our 20 round draft.

I did land my favorte RB Stewart and he rewarded me with a 12 yard effort.

Tough to compete when your 3rd round pick is Stewart and your 4th is Dez Bryant.

All I can do is look to next year and that stinks 1 week in but I guess that is life in dynasty.

Had I nailed Foster and Welker instead of V-Jackson and Maroney I would be sitting pretty even with Stewart and Bryant still on the team.

I think Stewart is basically a waste there in Carolina which is amazing with how much talent I believe he has.

The fact he never gets much playing time unless D-Will is hurt and he goes out and rocks the Giants for 200+ and then he is not seen from again is very bewildering.

 

[Sebowski]

Finished up my first-run rankings update over on DR.net. Hit me up with thoughts, comments, questions, critiques, etc, and I'll continue to tweak through the week.Also, other than getting our rankings updated early so everyone has time to digest in time for waivers, what would you guys like to see from us? How should I be prioritizing my time in a manner that's most beneficial for everyone?

I was scanning up and down for Mark Clayton, but couldn't find him. Just found him thanks to the search. Sometimes I scan team names and the look over at the player name. You still have Clayton listed with Baltimore. You also have Housh with Seattle.Good updates. I like the thread and explanations for them. Do you plan on doing this every week around the same time?My waivers run Wednesday morning.

 

[spon23]

Finished up my first-run rankings update over on DR.net. Hit me up with thoughts, comments, questions, critiques, etc, and I'll continue to tweak through the week.Also, other than getting our rankings updated early so everyone has time to digest in time for waivers, what would you guys like to see from us? How should I be prioritizing my time in a manner that's most beneficial for everyone?

Not sure you'd be interested in doing this, but I'd love to see you guys tackle PPR rankings sometime in the future.

 

[SSOG]

Finished up my first-run rankings update over on DR.net. Hit me up with thoughts, comments, questions, critiques, etc, and I'll continue to tweak through the week.

Also, other than getting our rankings updated early so everyone has time to digest in time for waivers, what would you guys like to see from us? How should I be prioritizing my time in a manner that's most beneficial for everyone?

I was scanning up and down for Mark Clayton, but couldn't find him. Just found him thanks to the search. Sometimes I scan team names and the look over at the player name. You still have Clayton listed with Baltimore. You also have Housh with Seattle.Good updates. I like the thread and explanations for them. Do you plan on doing this every week around the same time?

My waivers run Wednesday morning.

Yeah, I noticed Clayton and let our webmaster know to change the team, which he's already done. I missed Housh, though- thanks, and I'll let him know.I'll be doing this every week, same time and same place. I might play with the format a little bit (maybe make the change log an article? Maybe I'll use one change log that I continuously update all week, or maybe I'll use a first-run changelog on Monday and a second-run changelog on Thursday), we're still feeling everything and out trying to figure out what works best for us and what works best for our readers. If you have any suggestions, we're all ears.

Either way, the time and place are both non-negotiable. All rankings will be updated and a complete change log will be posted by end of business Monday, which will give me all of Tuesday to respond to feedback and finalize rankings in preparation for leagues with Wednesday Waivers. If anything else comes up during the week, I can continue to tweak the rankings up until Saturday, at which point the site creates an archived data point to be used in our ranking graphs.

Provided I don't get any complaints, I'll continue posting in here to let you guys know when I've got the Change Log up and ready for human consumption.

Finished up my first-run rankings update over on DR.net. Hit me up with thoughts, comments, questions, critiques, etc, and I'll continue to tweak through the week.

Also, other than getting our rankings updated early so everyone has time to digest in time for waivers, what would you guys like to see from us? How should I be prioritizing my time in a manner that's most beneficial for everyone?

Not sure you'd be interested in doing this, but I'd love to see you guys tackle PPR rankings sometime in the future.

We've definitely floated around the idea of adding a "PPR factor" to our existing rankings, which wouldn't be as good as a whole new set of rankings, but would give a strong indication of which players move and how heavily they move. Basically, I'd calculate what the average number of receptions for a starter at that position would be, then figure about how many receptions I'd expect the player in question to average, and then the difference would become the "PPR factor". It's probably going to have to wait for the offseason, though, because we've got a couple other projects we're prioritizing. We're trying to get it set up so that users can sign up (for free) and create their own set of rankings using the same easy-to-use rankings interface that I use, and then possibly even track their own rankings with the same dynamic ranking archive graphing tool that you can use on my rankings. If we can get it up and running, we could even cull from all the user rankings to create a set of consensus rankings that I think would be incredibly helpful. We're also working on a mathematically-intensive, historically based positional value baseline (think VBD, only for dynasty instead of redraft) which we could then combine with my rankings to create cross-positional rankings (*cue triumphant music*). Not just any cross-positional rankings, though- we're going to try to set it up so that you can enter your roster requirements and the site will automatically recalculate player values to give you a set of rankings that remains relevant no matter what league you play in.It's tough sledding trying to get a formula that produces results on the fly that all pass the "sniff test", so keep in mind that both of these features are very, very early in the developmental stages (and all three of us on the site have day jobs occupying most of our time), I'm just really excited about both and wanted to give you guys a taste of what's yet to come.

 

[gheemony]

Thoughts on the news that Ryan Grant is out for the year? My quick takes:

1. Coaching staff seems to believe in Brandon Jackson. I think he gets a major bump up.

2. IIRC, James Starks is on the PUP. Seems like a stash.

3. Grant isn't a special talent, but if he gets cut by a team, seems like a stash as well as he might get his job back next year or land elsewhere. But maybe his Rudi Johnson-like run of fantasy success is done.

 

[Sabertooth]

I have to say I am having flashback of when Ryan Grant ascended the depth chart of the Packers. He was a total dark horse and just took the reigns. I am wondering if James Starks might be the new Grant. He's a total unknown. While everyone is clamoring for Jackson, mightn't Starks be the shark move here?

Jackson is a "justaguy" type player. Starks, by all accounts is a guy that has real talent but has battled injuries. Can I get some of the Thread Elders to chime in here?

 

[Man of Constant Sorrow]

The big difference between Dixon and Hall, in my mind, is that Hall has a lot of clarity in his situation. All Hall has to do is beat out Derrick Anderson- hardly a tall order. After he does, he's got Fitzgerald/Breaston/Doucet/Williams/Roberts/Hightower to throw to. Easy path, clear reward, quick payoff. As for Dixon, there's no chance in hell he beats out Ben Roethlisberger, so he's essentially auditioning for a second team somewhere down the road... but who will that second team be, and when will he get that chance? Meanwhile, you're forced to tie up a roster spot on him while waiting to find out.

I agree that Hall has a potentially quick path to a starting gig, but I am not yet sold on the "clear reward, quick payoff" part (other than a chance to succeed...which is not insignificant). If just having those receivers to work with was some kind of guarantee for success, then Leinart and Anderson should have had a "clear reward" and "quick payoff" as well. That said, I do prefer Hall over Dixon. Also, it could be argued that sometimes it is better for a rookie QB prospect to carry a clipboard for a few years before being thrown to the wolves in the first year. So, it is possible that Hall's "quick path" could be a detriment to his long term success. I don't know, but I am not yet ready to go all in yet on my optimism. I do wish I had him on my roster though.

 

[SSOG]

Thoughts on the news that Ryan Grant is out for the year? My quick takes:1. Coaching staff seems to believe in Brandon Jackson. I think he gets a major bump up.2. IIRC, James Starks is on the PUP. Seems like a stash.3. Grant isn't a special talent, but if he gets cut by a team, seems like a stash as well as he might get his job back next year or land elsewhere. But maybe his Rudi Johnson-like run of fantasy success is done.

Jackson's up to RB29 in my rankings. Grant's down to RB30. I'm thinking about moving Jackson even higher, but I want to wait and see how he looks after a full week with the ones, first. I'm thinking about moving Grant even lower, given that he'll be a 28 year old unspecial talent coming off of a major injury and possibly looking for a new team the next time we see him get any meaningful action. When Ronnie was in a similar situation (27 year old back suffering a season-ending injury), I dropped Ronnie down to about 24th (where he's hung out), and Ronnie is a much better talent than Grant.

I have to say I am having flashback of when Ryan Grant ascended the depth chart of the Packers. He was a total dark horse and just took the reigns. I am wondering if James Starks might be the new Grant. He's a total unknown. While everyone is clamoring for Jackson, mightn't Starks be the shark move here?Jackson is a "justaguy" type player. Starks, by all accounts is a guy that has real talent but has battled injuries. Can I get some of the Thread Elders to chime in here?

Jackson's as talented as Grant is, and the coaching staff has expressed confidence in him as a 3-down RB should Grant get hurt. There's a possibility that Starks emerges, sure, but Jackson's the guy to own.

 

[SSOG]

I agree that Hall has a potentially quick path to a starting gig, but I am not yet sold on the "clear reward, quick payoff" part (other than a chance to succeed...which is not insignificant). If just having those receivers to work with was some kind of guarantee for success, then Leinart and Anderson should have had a "clear reward" and "quick payoff" as well. That said, I do prefer Hall over Dixon. Also, it could be argued that sometimes it is better for a rookie QB prospect to carry a clipboard for a few years before being thrown to the wolves in the first year. So, it is possible that Hall's "quick path" could be a detriment to his long term success. I don't know, but I am not yet ready to go all in yet on my optimism. I do wish I had him on my roster though.

I think Arizona's receiving weapons are well above average, and as a result, will make the QB look better than average weapons would. Sure, they can't make Derrick Anderson look good, but that's an indictment of how terrible Derrick Anderson would look with average weapons more than it is an indictment of Arizona's weapons. They're not a guarantee of success, but they're a strong positive indicator.I don't know if I buy that "it's better to hold a clipboard" argument. Some players benefit from it, no doubt, but some players don't. Since it's impossible to know beforehand which players are which, I don't account for it in player valuations. In all instances, playing sooner is better than playing later because it gives me more time to evaluate you, make a decision, and either commit or move on.

 

[shader]

I own Hester in a couple leagues and would gladly trade him for Johnny Knox. After watching the Bears in week one I think Knox is clearly the WR most likely to become a reliable FF starter this season. Even Devin Aromashodu looks like he'll be a bigger factor in Chicago's offense than Hester (although he might not keep getting so many looks if he doesn't start catching some of them). Also, Brandon Tate looked pretty nifty on that KR TD. He's a great throw-in candidate if his owner is a non-believer.

Tate is a guy that could really turn into something next year if Moss leaves.

 

[shader]

Tell me more about Mike Vick. I have Kolb in a start 2 QB league, so pickings for week 2 replacement are slim. I dismissed Vick as just a bye week fill in, but the talk of him starting somewhere next year intrigues me. I still struggle with that notion because of his age, potential off-the-field issues ending his career, and him ending up in a bad situation. But I'd love to hear more about why he deserves to be one of the top backups. How do Dixon and Max Hall compare? Is the disparity because Hall may have a long-term starting job sooner?

Why he deserves to be one of the top backups? Perhaps because he's a proven top ten QB? He's not a one-hit wonder. He's a proven, winning QB. He has more weapons on Philly than he ever has, but that is not the point.The point is that in a dynasty league, Vick is a must-add with alot of value. He could easily be a top 10-15 QB for the next 2-3 years.He's not old, so I don't buy that argument. He won't win the Philly starting job unless Kolb continues to stink up the joint. But he will start for somebody next year, so in a dynasty league that carries immense value.

 

[jdoggydogg]

Thoughts on DeSean Jackson sans Kolb? Vick has a rocket arm, but he's still erratic. I'm thinking that any game Jackson plays without Kolb will hurt the deep threat WR.

 

[jdoggydogg]

SSOG, it may have been another thread, but I seem to recall you not being impressed by Dez Bryant last Sunday.

Now, I'm not claiming he looked great. But aren't you impressed that Romo targeted Bryant 12 times? I think that shows a lot of trust in the young rookie. Dallas' willingness to integrate Bryant so heavily in week one despite zero playing time in the preseason tells me that Bryant will not be worked slowly into their game planning.

 

[SSOG]

I own Hester in a couple leagues and would gladly trade him for Johnny Knox. After watching the Bears in week one I think Knox is clearly the WR most likely to become a reliable FF starter this season. Even Devin Aromashodu looks like he'll be a bigger factor in Chicago's offense than Hester (although he might not keep getting so many looks if he doesn't start catching some of them). Also, Brandon Tate looked pretty nifty on that KR TD. He's a great throw-in candidate if his owner is a non-believer.

Tate is a guy that could really turn into something next year if Moss leaves.

Full disclosure... I really, really, really like Brandon Tate. He's one of the few guys whose rankings don't really reflect how I feel about him in my leagues. For 99.9% of the guys, if someone offers me a higher rated player for a lower rated player, I'm taking that deal (provided it makes sense with how my roster is currently constructed), but Tate is a guy who I would not trade for several guys ahead of him. It's not a rational decision, it's just that I'm really, really excited to see what he does next year and I would hate to get off the Tate train now that we're just one or two stops away from the destination. This is one of those situations where I'd sacrifice "value" for the pleasure of watching him develop on my bench.It also doesn't hurt that my league rewards return yardage (not heavily, but enough that heavy returners get the equivalent of 300 more yards worth of points), and Tate is a monster returner.

 

[thriftyrocker]

I have to say I am having flashback of when Ryan Grant ascended the depth chart of the Packers. He was a total dark horse and just took the reigns. I am wondering if James Starks might be the new Grant. He's a total unknown. While everyone is clamoring for Jackson, mightn't Starks be the shark move here?

Starks is the only one with a chance long term. However, I would give him very little chance of winning the job this year. Jackson is nothing special (neither was Grant) but can contribute on all 3 downs. He is competent and that's about all GB needs for this year. Starks didn't practice at all during the offseason. The last time he played in an actual game was 2008. He's going to be rusty. He's not going to be pro ready. No team is going to throw him in there, especially if they're a playoff team like the Pack.It is more likely Dimitri Nance (recently signed off Falcons practice squad) pushes Jackson short term. But he seems even more "just a guy" than Jackson. They've got another guy on their practice squad too who might get a chance - James Johnson.I would definitely add Jackson before Starks unless you are super loaded at RB and will never play Jackson.

 

[SSOG]

SSOG, it may have been another thread, but I seem to recall you not being impressed by Dez Bryant last Sunday. Now, I'm not claiming he looked great. But aren't you impressed that Romo targeted Bryant 12 times? I think that shows a lot of trust in the young rookie. Dallas' willingness to integrate Bryant so heavily in week one despite zero playing time in the preseason tells me that Bryant will not be worked slowly into their game planning.

I'll repeat what I said in the other thread: the only thing remotely remarkable about Dez Bryant's game this weekend was his target total. Yes, it's an incredibly encouraging sign that Dallas is working hard to integrate him so much and so soon... but in terms of what he did with those targets, I can't for the life of me understand how anyone could say he had a "good game". I mean, if you'd given Kevin Walter the exact same 12 targets, Kevin Walter probably would have given you the exact same results. Dez Bryant took exactly what was given to him on each play- never any more, never any less. It was the very definition of an average performance. But, yeah, it was just one performance, and he still has plenty of time to show his talent over the rest of the season and the rest of his career.

 

[shader]

I own Hester in a couple leagues and would gladly trade him for Johnny Knox. After watching the Bears in week one I think Knox is clearly the WR most likely to become a reliable FF starter this season. Even Devin Aromashodu looks like he'll be a bigger factor in Chicago's offense than Hester (although he might not keep getting so many looks if he doesn't start catching some of them). Also, Brandon Tate looked pretty nifty on that KR TD. He's a great throw-in candidate if his owner is a non-believer.

Tate is a guy that could really turn into something next year if Moss leaves.

Full disclosure... I really, really, really like Brandon Tate. He's one of the few guys whose rankings don't really reflect how I feel about him in my leagues. For 99.9% of the guys, if someone offers me a higher rated player for a lower rated player, I'm taking that deal (provided it makes sense with how my roster is currently constructed), but Tate is a guy who I would not trade for several guys ahead of him. It's not a rational decision, it's just that I'm really, really excited to see what he does next year and I would hate to get off the Tate train now that we're just one or two stops away from the destination. This is one of those situations where I'd sacrifice "value" for the pleasure of watching him develop on my bench.It also doesn't hurt that my league rewards return yardage (not heavily, but enough that heavy returners get the equivalent of 300 more yards worth of points), and Tate is a monster returner.

He's that third WR that Brady hasn't had in some time. I think he'll really have some solid games this year. In fact, the Jets might just be a great matchup for him. If Revis does shut down Moss, and the Jets gameplan to stop Welker.. Tate and the tight ends will get alot of looks.It's the perfect situation for Tate to step into a starting role next year. Develop chemistry with Brady this year, and become a legit fantasy calibur starting WR in 2011.

 

[SSOG]

I have to say I am having flashback of when Ryan Grant ascended the depth chart of the Packers. He was a total dark horse and just took the reigns. I am wondering if James Starks might be the new Grant. He's a total unknown. While everyone is clamoring for Jackson, mightn't Starks be the shark move here?

Starks is the only one with a chance long term. However, I would give him very little chance of winning the job this year. Jackson is nothing special (neither was Grant) but can contribute on all 3 downs. He is competent and that's about all GB needs for this year. Starks didn't practice at all during the offseason. The last time he played in an actual game was 2008. He's going to be rusty. He's not going to be pro ready. No team is going to throw him in there, especially if they're a playoff team like the Pack.It is more likely Dimitri Nance (recently signed off Falcons practice squad) pushes Jackson short term. But he seems even more "just a guy" than Jackson. They've got another guy on their practice squad too who might get a chance - James Johnson.I would definitely add Jackson before Starks unless you are super loaded at RB and will never play Jackson.

Why is Starks the only one with a chance long-term? Green Bay believes in Jackson enough that they've been carrying him for 4 years now. They believe in him enough that they entered this season with only 2 RBs on their active roster. They believe in him enough that two of the backs they cut (Desean Wynn and Kregg Lumpkin) both wound up signed to another team's 53-man roster. Brandon Jackson is a 24 year old former 2nd round pick that the coaching staff has shown strong support of all offseason (from entering the season with only him as RB depth to saying in the preseason that they'd be perfectly comfortable with him as a 3-down RB).I think Brandon Jackson could easily be the guy in Green Bay over the next 4 years. He could just as easily not be, but it's far too soon to be writing him off beyond this season.

 

[jdoggydogg]

SSOG, it may have been another thread, but I seem to recall you not being impressed by Dez Bryant last Sunday. Now, I'm not claiming he looked great. But aren't you impressed that Romo targeted Bryant 12 times? I think that shows a lot of trust in the young rookie. Dallas' willingness to integrate Bryant so heavily in week one despite zero playing time in the preseason tells me that Bryant will not be worked slowly into their game planning.

I'll repeat what I said in the other thread: the only thing remotely remarkable about Dez Bryant's game this weekend was his target total. Yes, it's an incredibly encouraging sign that Dallas is working hard to integrate him so much and so soon... but in terms of what he did with those targets, I can't for the life of me understand how anyone could say he had a "good game". I mean, if you'd given Kevin Walter the exact same 12 targets, Kevin Walter probably would have given you the exact same results. Dez Bryant took exactly what was given to him on each play- never any more, never any less. It was the very definition of an average performance. But, yeah, it was just one performance, and he still has plenty of time to show his talent over the rest of the season and the rest of his career.

Cool. I don't disagree.

 

[HenryMuto]

I have a tough call to make in my big dynasty league my RB's are a mess but do I blow a lot of my FA money for the year on Jackson ?

I am surprised to find out he is out there but it is a shallow dynasty league only 20 roster spots 12 teams.

My RB's are a mess for this year and for the future even.

I have Stewart, Harrison, Maroney, Chester Taylor, Larry Johnson and Ringer.

I don't want to blow all my FA money on Jackson then he end up not being the guy for the rest of the year as it will limit my chances to find another diamond in the rough later in the year.

Thoughts on this ?

Also I just found out Chris your the same guy I have been reading articles on USA today for years.

I just knew you as F&L on here and Chris on there as 2 different people.

Small world I guess.

 

[SSOG]

I have a tough call to make in my big dynasty league my RB's are a mess but do I blow a lot of my FA money for the year on Jackson ?I am surprised to find out he is out there but it is a shallow dynasty league only 20 roster spots 12 teams.My RB's are a mess for this year and for the future even.I have Stewart, Harrison, Maroney, Chester Taylor, Larry Johnson and Ringer.I don't want to blow all my FA money on Jackson then he end up not being the guy for the rest of the year as it will limit my chances to find another diamond in the rough later in the year.Thoughts on this ?Also I just found out Chris your the same guy I have been reading articles on USA today for years.I just knew you as F&L on here and Chris on there as 2 different people.Small world I guess.

I'd go big on Jackson. F&L and I have disagreed on him all offseason. F&L said in his preseason rankings update that he didn't think Jackson could do anything with the job if he ever got it. Personally, I believe that the fact that the Packers cut Wynn and Lumpkin (two guys immediately rostered by other teams) indicates that they would be perfectly comfortable if Jackson wound up carrying the load. It's a risk, but I think if nothing else, he's a sure-fire starter for the rest of the season, and if you watch him and are not a believer, you could always trade him down the road to recoup the investment.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Vick's 30- he's not old.

With most of his value coming as a runner and not as a passer, his "30" is older than most other QB's "30".