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Besides being both small Moore and Wallace aren't that similar imo. Although Moore is fast, Wallace is considerably faster and considerably quicker. Denarius Moore is considerably better at catching the ball and outjumping defenders and catching the ball in traffic, whereas Wallace simply outruns defenders and is very good at finding open passing lanes for Roethlisberger in zone defenses.
Agree with all of this. Brandon Marshall has done a lot more than Moore so far, and deserves to be ranked a good deal higher. Desean is dynamic, but never seems to receive enough targets to be ranked higher than Moore.
I cut Desean in a redraft for him. I'd so the same in a dynasty if we are talking PPR.I would rather Marshall right now. But let's face it, he is certifiable. He could literally come up awol for your team at any point. Would it really surprise anyone to hear Marshall got into another violent altercation off the field?Santonio is overrated and I would cut him outright for Denarius.Stevie is about a dead heat right now with Moore.'thriftyrocker said:
Tampa Bay has been awful across the board this year. Williams has struggled but he hasn't given up and he hasn't been a problem in the locker room; a couple of areas you might be concerned with given hos reputation coming out of college. Lucky bounces, targets, catch rate are all things to take into consideration but he was covered by NFL DBs last year and he produced. The team as a whole has a long way to go and Williams is struggling along with them. If he works hard, gets good coaching and Freeman progresses he may bounce back to be a WR2 with occasional WR1 production. He is only in his second year. He is a borderline start on any given week, depending on your circumstances, but so aren't Blount and Freeman. Acually, who on this team would you start with confidence? Kellen Winslow has disappeared too.
I took over a truly terrible team two offseasons ago. First year I gave up older players for picks (the best player on my team at this point was Flacco).I got a lot of 2nd 3rd and 4th rounders and did pretty well with them. Last year I kept the picks I had and then in season this year I traded next years first for a proven player.I'd take that approach again, I wouldn't want to keep accumulating picks each year though.
I prefer to trade for picks. That way you are essentially helping your own pick become the 1.01 by having less startable players on the roster. You don't have to draft all rookies with the picks when it comes time, you can pick some and trade some. I recently did this in one dynasty league and in one year went from picking 1.01 to being in 2nd place currently (12 teams).
Also, players like Antonio Brown (i.e. "young WR with upside" - especially #2 WRs on their respective teams) are a dime a dozen and many never quite pan out. For evey Boldin, there are dozens of Nate Burleson's, Jacoby Jones', Michael Jenkins, Titus Young, Eddie Royal, Johnnie Knox, Chris Chambers, Malcolm Floyd, etc. SUre, you may land one of those guys with that pick - but the pick gives you flexibility, plus for many (especially just prior to the draft) it has more trade value.
It all depends on the offer. For instance, I'm equally pleased with the 1.01 or 1.02 this year, and got Antonio Brown from the guy with the 1.02 in order to move up to my 1.01 spot. He may get a premium for the 1.01 pick on draft day, but I think I can get close to that or my "leftovers" with the 1.02 that I like just as much as 1.01. Yes, I dealt players that would have helped me in order to get a 1.03 + a player in this draft too, but I figured that player would be nearing the end of his useful time by the time I got this rebuild turned around, and I would like to secure top picks for this year and probably next while my rooks from this year take their lumps. A true rebuild can be done in one year, where you go from rags to playoffs, but in DYNASTY, the point is to build a DYNASTY and that can only be done IMO, with high draft picks and making a juggernaut team that will take a few years to season. I'd rather wait an extra year or two to make a repeat champion, than to just make the playoffs in the next year, and go year on, year off, year on, year off... So, in short, my answer is to go for the draft picks. Secure WR and QB before filling out RBs, as QB has the longest shelf life and longest learning curve. Take a top QB two years in a row, maybe 3, and focus on WRs. Once you have a stout WR corps, and still have a high draft pick because everybody else is hoarding RBs in order to make playoff pushes, you can draft RBs highly that are capable of stepping in and making a difference in their 1st year. Make as many trades as possible to exchange late 1st/early 2nd picks for early 1st rounders. Gems can be found late, but the payoff % is horrible vs top 4 picks.
Guess he was due for a few rebound games. He's had 6+ catches in 5 of the last 6 games.
His value is definitely in the TDs. It's nice to see him get a few (I own him in at least 2 leagues still, a hedging of my bets)TB, DET, ARZ - I must be an idiot, because I don't understand why you would do anything other than throw a jump ball to your super stud, physically superior receiver when you're anywhere from 3 to 12 yards or so out of the endzone.'thriftyrocker said:
There is already a 5 page thread on Cruz. Essentially he's Eli's Jordy. He's having a great year and is for real. He's not an NFL WR1, but he seems locked into being WR1b for at least 2 more years in NY. If we're talking dynasty rankings, he's just outside the top 25. There are too many guys like Jordy, Harvin, Austin, Mike Williams, Holmes who are hovering at that low WR2 level who I'd easily prefer. If it gets to Moore, Crabtree, Torrey types, the decision gets a little tougher.
It's always interesting for me to read threads like this with the benefit of hindsight. If Beanie can put together some nice games on the heels of the monster game he just had will he supplant himself in the top 10 RBs for dynasty?
Standard scoring - possibly. PPR - no. The top 10 talent/age combination is there. But he would need a healthy stretch of solid games, beyond this year. I believe I had him around 15 when I last made a list, after he slowed down, and 12th before the injury/struggles. I think he could get back to that 12 mark by staying healthy and averaging around 80 yards, 0.75 TDs, on 4+ YPC. If he is ever widely considered top 10 in PPR dynasty leagues, I would be looking to sell again.
Same things have been said about many a player, and many a player have been fine through their careers.
But look back over the past 15 years and see who else you said that about who had their kind of talent. Just go look. Because a couple years ago I went through that exercise and found that all those guys came through and produced. Injuries have such a small correlation to specific players that it simply isn't worth making that assumption.And let's be realistic with interpreting that. A typically-career-ending injury that a guy comes back from unexpectedly is different from your run of the mill bad luck with an MCL sprain, a hammy pull and a PCL sprain that are all just unfortunate, but unconnected.
I'm curious how the addition of Ryan Williams will affect Wells over the next season or two.
Me too. But who knows if Williams will ever be the same? And even if he's great, if Beanie keeps performing then WIlliams will just be the next Jonathan Stewart, who is loved by 90% of the dynasty world and valued like a top 10 RB for the past what, 4 years? - and still hasn't had his shot yet.
I think that, as with all players, the "if I get great value" argument is kind of assumed. It's odd - so many people are all over Mathews for his "injury issues" that he's a guy I have been thinking of targeting at a discount...
What is considered significant time? I've said this in many threads, but honestly, how many RBs have shown they can play a full 16 game season without injury on a consistent basis? LT is the only one that really comes to mind of the past 10 years. Chris Johnson hasn't missed regular season games yet. Even the guys that have been studs for years like MJD, SJAX, Turner, and Gore have ALL had injuries. LeSean McCoy maybe, but as I type this he's pretty questionable for tonight.
I agree and find it amusing that those who always trot out DMC as an example never liked him to begin with, and seem to overlook the fact that RBs like LT that play multiple years and never miss a game are the exception, not the rule. I am curious, too, how extensive the list is of career "injury free" top RBs.
Agreed. The "injury prone" lable for RBs is ridiculous:Here's some of the other starting RBs that have been injured and missed games this season:
I think maybe that is the case. There's a myth that rookie RBs just come into the league and are automatically successful and while that does happen sometimes, generally it doesn't. His rookie season, by the end of the year he basically did supplant Hightower. His second season he struggled though a bad knee injury all season - and this goes to my point. Part of learning how to be a great back in this league is learning to play effectively through injury. This season Wells has done that for the most part.ETA: Personally I don't see him top 10 in ppr leagues either - but I do think he's a good young back.
I'd say 58.5 total yards a game is pretty impressive considering Wells didn't see the field much until the second half of his rookie season and the state of the Cardinals' offense last season was atrocious. I guess it's all in how you want to look at those type of statistics to formulate an argument.Wells started taking most of the RB touches late in his rookie season. He got hurt in the preseason last year. Hightower was probably a better back than Beanie on one leg. I doubt Tim Hightower's play really had that much to do with Wells' lack of RB work.
While the lack of alternatives does help his workload, I believe that Arizona with Williams this year would likely be running more often. Probably a few less touches per game from Beanie, but a fair number of touches that Williams would have gotten would have come from different play calls that focused more on the run.I also don't believe this is a case of a guy that "finally gets it". Wells always had it--he didn't make a week 1 impact as a rookie, but got a lot more time as the year went on and rushed for 113-536-6 (4.7 ypc) in the 2nd half of his rookie year. Last year was essentially a lost year for everyone on Arizona, and Beanie's troublesome knee didn't help matters. This year he has played well, especially in games where he has been healthy. He has managed to play through pain, and while that hasn't always translated into strong fantasy numbers, it does help his future outlook in the eyes of the HC that decides who to play. Despite some difficult games, he is on pace for over 1200 rushing yards, 10+ TDs, at a 4.7 YPC clip.
Those people were wrong. They kept their blinders on when Whisenhunt kept stressing Beanie was the starter. Given Ryan's injury he's got a long road ahead of him.
"Just a guy" is overused and not applicable here. Maybe it depends on what you're looking for. He is a N/S runner. If you are looking for cuts and elusiveness, yeah, he will look ordinary. But if you are looking for burst through the hole and shedding weak tackles, he will look pretty good but maybe not elite. His stats echo this. His "value over average" is pretty low but he has a pretty high "success rate." He's moving chains (as much as someone with Kolb/Skelton in front of them can be expected).
It's a numbers game. Just not enough young elite RBs. He also had a huge game against NY, and was as successful as anyone has been against BAL. It's not one game. He lost his burst for a painful 3 or 4 game stretch. If it is really back he'll continue to have good games. Unless/until he gets dinged again.
3.9 vs. 4.7 yards per carry. You are right, they are the same back.
"Just a guy" may be overused in general, but it is the single best description that I think can be applied to how Beanie Wells has looked during the 2011 NFL season. I think the overused term in the bolded portion is actually "burst through the hole" and it is not a term that applies to Beanie. Besides the obvious elite players that actually have this burst that so many people assign to players without it really having a place, someone that does have burst and clearly displays it with his suddenness to explode through the line is DeMarco Murray. When you watch him play, you can't help but say "wow" when there is an opening and he just explodes into it and immediately hits the 2nd level (and this is from someone who was far, far, far from a Murray supporter when he first blew onto the scene against the Rams). You know who Beanie Wells most reminds me of when I watch him attack the line of scrimmage? Michael Turner. No, not Michael Turner of 2,3, or 4 years ago, but Michael Turner of today, the 2011 version. I see a ton of similarities between the 2. Both look plodding and never strike you as a player that brings anything special, extra, or game breaking to the table. Both are able to get what's blocked plus have the ability to shed weak tackles and gain some extra yardage, making them better than average, but not much more. Explode or burst are not terms I would ever assign to either of them in any meaningful way. The difference between how DeMarco Murray looks attacking the line of scrimmage and Beanie Wells right now is pretty significant to me.You are right that Ryan Williams has a long road back to significance, but the simple fact that the team invested a decent price into him in the form of a 2nd round pick is concerning enough for Beanie's long term value. You can state how Whisenhunt said from day 1 that Beanie would be the starter all you want and be entirely right, but that doesn't change the potential for his value to be significantly lowered even if he remains the starter. I don't think Beanie can thrive in a Carolina DeAngelo/Stewart type situation even if he receives the larger portion because frankly, he isn't as good as DeAngelo was. Injury or no injury, outside of the touchdowns it is not like Beanie's performance has lit the world on fire. It is the definition of adequate. I'm not exactly looking for adequate performance out of a player if I am going to assign him top 10 value. As I said above, the injury is not something that can be dismissed with Beanie because he now has a 6+ year track record of being hurt EVERY SINGLE SEASON. I'm willing to forgive 1, 2, 3, heck even 4 years of injury but when you have been hurt every single year of your college or pro career...well when there's smoke, there is fire.
There are levels for sure. He's not Murray. I don't even think comparing him to 30 yo Turner is that bad. Even supporters are saying he's just very good not elite. If you look at the long runs he's broken, what happened in those plays? Small opening and he was able to get to the 2nd level before it collapsed, maybe breaks an arm tackle by a CB/S, then he got caught from behind. Call it what you want. Mark Ingram has the same +/-.
Enough examples that this isn't the case. Teams realize they need depth at RB. Obviously they were ready to move on from Hightower.
Just an FYI, but Cedric Benson with 10 TDs looks a lot different than Cedric Benson with 5-6 TDs. He would have been around 12th in both 2009 and 2010 with just 2-3 more TDs each year.
I've been watching football for 40 years and I can tell you that durability is one of the most under rated qualities in a quality RB. Yes, they need talent. But some guys ARE more injury prone than others. The great ones are durable. Most of the guys on your list are not elite backs and never will be. Of the ones who are, they have been able to play and get many more touches than McFadden has. In four seasons McFadden has managed more than 200 runs only one season and he has never played more than 13 games.
80 yards a game would be just under 1,300. Toss in Beanie's 10+ TDs and you get a top 10 back. Benson hasn't shown anywhere near Wells' ability to punch it in at the stripe. He's currently only 10 points out of 10th in my league (.5 PPR), which is what I'm getting at. In dynasty, he looks top 10 to me.
You might find good teams at the end of round 1 spending luxury picks on depth at RB, but bad teams don't invest top 45 picks at RB for a "Tim Hightower replacement." They just don't. They can get that in the 4th or 5th round. They invest high picks at RB when they think that they're getting a potential difference maker.
Guy is always making plays. Always.