Dynasty Rankings (12 Viewers)

[thriftyrocker]

Who's buying Gronk and for what?

 

[Concept Coop]

Where I don't own him, the owners seem willing to wait. Latest offer was Blackmon/Wright/2nd in 1.5 (TE) PPR league. Hoping I get a counter, at least.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Who's buying Gronk and for what?

I'd be glad to, but unfortunately no one is selling. I got laughed at in multiple leagues trying to build a package around Julius Thomas + late 1st. In others, people wanted McCoy, Charles, Dez, insert young cornerstone player here. So, lateral moves IMO. TE is deep enough that most teams can easily afford to play the waiting game.

 

[DexterDew]

as a Gronk owner in many leagues, I would not even consider moving him unless someone is willing to overpay. I've held this long, what is another week or two or three in a dynasty time frame? Julius Thomas + 1st may get a conversation started, but would need a valuable piece or two more (such as 1st round rookie or devy pick, or young player I covet or productive vet if competitive). YMMV

 

[jdoggydogg]

Any thoughts on Andre Ellington? Does the group agree to proceed with caution given his small size and touch count?

 

[Matt Waldman]

Vintage EBF. It is all about draft pedigree - it pretty much starts and ends there. As you mentioned, no point in looking any further as the mindset is that one will be right 95% of the time anyway (which gives you all kind of free time to do other things besides taking a look or another look at what most people consider marginal players).

Well I think we know why they do this also. It creates a built in excuse for when these players fail. Then they can just say "well the NFL drafted him in round 2. Not my fault they were wrong." Then they also do not need to do any hard analysis and stick their neck out for players who have lower odds of making it. I think the motivation for this is more about self preservation of reputation than actual hard analysis. That is what makes me angry.

The flip side of this is people who stick their neck out on every player then claim credit for it when one of those hundred guys does pan out.

We've both been around for a while. Do I strike you as someone who seeks to duck accountability when he's wrong? Do I strike you as someone who is afraid to go out on a limb? Do you not remember me arguing for two years that Vincent Jackson was a top-5 dynasty receiver? Do you not remember me arguing that Ron Dayne was going to win the starting RB job in Denver and be a top-12 fantasy RB? Do you not remember the years where I was the driver on the Devin Hester bandwagon? Over my 10 years here, have I come across as someone more concerned with preserving my reputation than taking a stand?

If I wanted to preserve my reputation, I sure picked a crappy way to go about it. I've got 10,000+ posts worth of posting history chronicling my every mistake. I'm the guy who, while at DynastyRankings.net, became the only dynasty ranker on the internet to actually preserve a copy of his rankings archives so that people could look back and see how I had players ranked years ago. They originally launched the site without preserving rankings archives, and I specifically requested the change because I believe in accountability, in allowing the consumer to judge me on my actual merits rather than simply being forced to take my claims at face value. If you want to know how I had a player ranked for every single week of the 2010 season, those archives are still there, just waiting to be accessed. If you want to preserve your reputation, keeping archives is a pretty bad way to do it- the current system employed by every other rankings outfit is far preferable, because your mistakes disappear down the memory hole as soon as you correct them. If you want to preserve your reputation, you don't point people to articles like these. I don't know if I have a reputation for always being right, or for usually being right. If I do, I don't want it, and I certainly don't deserve it. I don't really know if I'm right more or less often than the other so-called experts in the field (this is one area that would be much easier to address if people actually... you know... kept rankings archives). I know we do not get to choose our reputations, but I would hope that if I do have a reputation, it would be as someone who is passionate about fantasy football and who devotes large amounts of time, effort, and thought to finding market inefficiencies, maximizing value, and creating systems that set owners up for success. I would hope that I have a reputation for honesty, integrity, and transparency.

I get that you're angry, but like I said, you're getting mad over a straw man. I'm not looking to take the easy way out. I'm not looking to shield myself from criticism. On the contrary, I put a lot of time and effort into coming up with my current system, and I've opened myself to a lot of criticism by taking everyone behind the scenes to see how I make the sausage. In fact, what exactly is happening right now? I posted how I rank players, and I received criticism over it. Some people now think less of me and my rankings as a result. I'm okay with that, because I believe that the system I use right now allows me to produce the best rankings I am currently capable of producing, and if I ever stopped believing that, I would replace it with another system that did.

I do not consider this accountability. I consider it to be self promotion. I have not read a word of your links, not interested. Just like I was not interested in what you and other FBG staff drafted as an example of what "experts" would do.

I have not read your articles. Pointing to them does not clarify your position in any way. It is self promotion not accountability.

Furthermore what makes me angry is not even the analysis (which I have not seen). It is the attitude. You are very condescending in many of the statements that you make. You automatically assume that your system is better than any other method. I think you believe your articles prove that. I think you are making excuses for your blind spots and lack of effort.

I will give you another example of your arrogance. You say that posting here in the shark pool is a thing of the past and that most relevant conversations happen on twitter now.

I signed up for twitter a couple of months ago and I read a bunch of things people were saying there. Congradulations to those few folks who got a follower out of that. BTW Adam you were not one of them. What I read on twitter sounded like a bunch of 14 year olds crowing about things that are still at this time undecided. There was no substance to these comments at all. If you think that is a more constructive forum of debate and sharing of information than the SP I strongly disagree. I have not bothered wasting my time reading these juvenile comments any further than that one day I signed up for it, because what I read, from very intelligent people by the way was for the most part worse than worthless. The comments are knee jerk and posturing. So do you still think that this is a better forum for sharing ideas about football than the SP? I think twitter is making your language and depth of conversation much worse than it would be here or on any other message board.

The one saving grace of all of this was reading Joe Bryant twitter feed. Joe was kindly and simply answering peoples questions without all of the attitude and foolishness I saw the other folks were conducting themselves with. This is not a criticism of you (may be hard to believe but you are not the center of the universe) but it is a criticism of what you deem to be useful conversation, as you have arrogantly said a few times that twitter is the main form of discourse now among FBG staff.

I will give you another example of what makes me angry about FBG staff arrogance.

I was listening to the audible and there are many comments that are meant purely as self promotion and I cannot help but wonder if some of them are intended to put listeners on the wrong track in terms of their player evaluation and value. Just today I see post here from someone wondering if they should be starting CJ Anderson week 3 against the Raiders. The hype gets really out of hand on many of these sleepers and I do really wonder if you guys have inside jokes amongst yourselves about getting people to react so foolishly.

The pimping really ticks me off too. Pat yourself on the back for one out 500 guys you did research on once that player starts moving up the depth chart. Your fingers are on every player just waiting to take credit when one pans out and never mind all of the ones who didn't that if held accountable people would likely realize were way down the list compared to all the duds.

I want to preface this next criticism with the fact that I have a lot of respect for what Matt Waldman does. He puts in a lot of time watching players, and not just watching them but doing so looking for specific things and writing all of those things down. Cecil is doing this as well. So I have a lot of respect for that skill. It is something I do not have the time or training to do as well as they do. But the arrogance behind this does really tick me off as well. What ticked me off about something Waldman said was in reference to the Eagles offense. He said "for those of you doing projections at home" with a condescending tone. This phrase is very similar to the phrase "kids don't try this at home" which is exactly the attitude being conveyed. That FBG staff is superior to anyone else doing projections themselves. It is a total PIMP attitude and all of your subscribers are the tricks. Gee I wonder why I do not want to be a subscriber when the people creating the content have an attitude towards their customers like this.

This is nothing new.

Now coming back to the ranking of rookie players. An idea that seems lost on you, despite you talking about inefficiencies metaphor of stock market trading, is that when you make a rookie pick, especially in the 1st and 2nd round of a rookie draft, that you should be making a commitment to holding that player for 3 years. If the player is a dud that is a long time that you will be taking zeros at this roster spot.

I recall you saying that you and ZWK had a conversation about the value of a roster spot. I do not know what conclushions that you 2 may have come to in that regard, but I know ZWK is a very smart person. So whatever that was is likely very useful information. Did you apply this information to your articles? Have you applied it towards the value of a rookie pick at all? Because I think you should. That is actually one of the main purposes of trying to figure out the value of rookie picks based on the value of a roster spot. This is not exclusively a team management concept. It is a concept that should (imo) be baked into how you value and rank rookie players.

From my perspective most leagues should likely NOT have more than 2 rounds of rookies drafted. Because most leagues will not be large enough rosters for rookies drafted after the 2nd round to be worth rostering. They are for the most part going to do nothing, and are not above replacement level value. Even a large percentage of the players who are drafted in the 1st 2 rounds of a rookie draft are going to be below replacement level value.

You like to talk about 5th round NFL draft picks only having 5% chance of becoming relevant. While this is useful information it also applies to all other rookie players. A 20% chance still fails 4 out 5 and a 30% chance still fails 7 out of 10 and so on up to your legit 1st round NFL rookie picks who have a success rate of something like 40-50%. Half of those still fail too.

I assume this is what your article covers, but I do not know. It is useful information I just do not agree with the analysis that seems to come from the information.

The one player you and EBF seem to be harping on is Zac Stacy. Lets look at the Rams situation right now.

Richardson is currently the starter. 7th round NFL draft pick.

Pead is 2nd in line but I have figured out that much of the reason he was drafted this high is because of special teams potential. Potential that was not realized and has now been replaces by Austin and Cunningham.

Zac Stacy 5th round pick who has struggled with some unknown injury during pre season holding him back. Was inactive last game due to not playing special teams and the Rams wanting to give Pead some more opportunity.

Benny Cunningham UDFA currently returning kicks who got a couple of carries in most recent game.

By your analysis (that is hard to have a conversation about since I have not read the articles you are referring to) I think you would be saying that Pead is the most valuable player out of these 4 options because he was a 2nd round NFL pick. Richardson should not be considered because he was a 7th round pick. Similarly Stacy should not be considered because he was a 5th round pick (although he was picked higher than Richardson) and Cunningham a UDFA would have no value either.

Instead what we have is a situation where the 7th round pick is the starter and the 5th round and UDFA may be moving ahead of the 2nd round pick before long.

So according to you guys they should be ranked-

Pead

Stacy (although after round 4 who cares?)

Richardson

Cunningham

As I already said we will not know how things will turn out for Stacy or Cunningham until 2015(post season or half way). In regards to Richardson and Pead not until 2014(post season or half way).

I think such a conclusion is lazy at best and not considering their pre-NFL draft value or opportunity.

I think it is fair to criticize Stacy as this is a player back in May I used as an example of the whole rookie ranking dynamic. More so that just talking about Stacy, but to talk about the big picture, which is usually what I am trying to do in all of my posts.

I still disagree with your method of evaluation. Even if in this example it turns out to be correct. I think we can do better than that. EBF certainly was not blind to the value of Richardson despite his NFL draft status. A ranking that takes this possibility into consideration would be better than just dismissing players outright due to their NFL draft position.

That is not to say that following the NFL draft and pedigree should be ignored either. It is very useful data. But it is just that data. It does not look at all of the other variables that I think people should consider.

Hey,

Happened to read this and I was completely surprised that you took my comment about projections as condescending. While I don't remember exactly what I said, the idea of making fun of people doing projections is completely out of character with what I believe. It saddens me that you heard it that way and believe that I or other FBGs inherently believe that others' work isn't worthwhile just because they don't write for a publication. I can tell you that's not the case. While I think there's nothing wrong with having confidence in the work you do, I'm still pretty shocked with the manner you described your perception of what you heard because I just try to focus on doing the best work I can and leave it at that. Just wanted to share that with you.

I don't get to spend a lot of time in the Shark Pool these days or answer questions in depth via email like I used to, but I can assure you the intent of any conversation about people doing their work was never meant as disrespectful. I can't even imagine feeling that way.

 

[Concept Coop]

Any thoughts on Andre Ellington? Does the group agree to proceed with caution given his small size and touch count?

He's looked pretty good. In my RB heaviest league I'll be making a moderate push for him; even one RB2 season is quite valuable.

In more traditional, PPR leagues - I'll be keeping my eye on him, but am not ready to pay current market value.

 

[lardonastick]

What's the mood on Cordarrelle Patterson? I didn't pick him in any rookie drafts and was pretty ho-hum on his outlook, but he has the height/weight/speed and the draft pedigree on paper to become a big time player down the road. I'm leery of Austin and Hopkins is overpriced (IMO). Patterson, on the other hand, looks like he could be an interesting buy low candidate. Right about this time last year Justin Blackmon was still doing nada and Michael Floyd was pretty much a complete zero.

Is now the time to make a move for Cordarrelle or is he just a dud?

Someone in my Dynasty league already beat me to it. You're right now is the time to get him if you believe in him. He's shown some flashes but the reality is he's still an unknown. I'd be willing to take that change because there's something about that way this kid runs with the ball in his hands that gives the impression that he can take it to the house at any given time. I hate i missed on him as I didn't think the original owner was interested in traded him. Count me as one of those that believe he's special and not being used properly in Minny but I'm not discounting the idea that maybe it could be his inability to grasp the playbook. Time will tell.

Tex

Out of curiosity, what was he dealt for?

Personally, I think absolutely nothing has changed for Patterson's outlook, so if something has changed for Patterson's price, it might be a good time to buy. Like EBF, I was never huge on the whole "OMG PATTERSON IS FROM THE MATRIX" train, but at the end of the day, he's a late first round pick with fantastic measurables and huge upside, and those guys are always worth taking a chance on.

I offered Ryan Matthews for Patterson, to get the conversation started and see where his owner stood. He countered with Patterson and his 2014 2nd (mid/late) for my Ben Tate. I think *on paper* that's a good trade for me, but I'm RB starved, and have some high hopes for Tate being a reliable starter for the next few years.

Anyway, there's at least one data point for Patterson's current value.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Any thoughts on Andre Ellington? Does the group agree to proceed with caution given his small size and touch count?

He's looked pretty good. In my RB heaviest league I'll be making a moderate push for him; even one RB2 season is quite valuable.

In more traditional, PPR leagues - I'll be keeping my eye on him, but am not ready to pay current market value.

I drafted him in the 3rd in a few leagues, and while he's looked very good, I see him as a probable 3rd down RBBC type long term, and he's in a system / team that's going to make it hard to have consistent fantasy relevance moving forward. I'd move him for less than RB2 type prices; he's been on the block for a few weeks with barely a hint of interest.

 

[Concept Coop]

I drafted him in the 3rd in a few leagues, and while he's looked very good, I see him as a probable 3rd down RBBC type long term, and he's in a system / team that's going to make it hard to have consistent fantasy relevance moving forward. I'd move him for less than RB2 type prices; he's been on the block for a few weeks with barely a hint of interest.

I agree, re: long term prospects. I'd pay a future 2nd for him right now, in traditional PPR leagues. He's scoring points right now and carving out a bigger role. Not ready to pay more than that, however.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

I drafted him in the 3rd in a few leagues, and while he's looked very good, I see him as a probable 3rd down RBBC type long term, and he's in a system / team that's going to make it hard to have consistent fantasy relevance moving forward. I'd move him for less than RB2 type prices; he's been on the block for a few weeks with barely a hint of interest.

I agree, re: long term prospects. I'd pay a future 2nd for him right now, in traditional PPR leagues. He's scoring points right now and carving out a bigger role. Not ready to pay more than that, however.

I think pretty much everyone realizes this, with the exception of a few hugely unrealistic and vocal people in different threads on this board. Depending on my RB depth I'd consider cashing out for a 2nd -- his value could totally tank if they add a RB next year in the middle rounds or via FA.

 

[jdoggydogg]

I drafted him in the 3rd in a few leagues, and while he's looked very good, I see him as a probable 3rd down RBBC type long term, and he's in a system / team that's going to make it hard to have consistent fantasy relevance moving forward. I'd move him for less than RB2 type prices; he's been on the block for a few weeks with barely a hint of interest.

I agree, re: long term prospects. I'd pay a future 2nd for him right now, in traditional PPR leagues. He's scoring points right now and carving out a bigger role. Not ready to pay more than that, however.

I think pretty much everyone realizes this, with the exception of a few hugely unrealistic and vocal people in different threads on this board. Depending on my RB depth I'd consider cashing out for a 2nd -- his value could totally tank if they add a RB next year in the middle rounds or via FA.

Cool.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I'm surprised that people are only valuing him like a 2nd rounder. If that's the case I'm going to go after him in the leagues that I don't already own him.

Come May of next year, I think I'd be hard pressed to come up with someone available in the 2nd round of my rookie draft that has more promise than Ellington has right now. Lots of comparisons to Jamaal Charles out there, and I don't think I could pass up on that upside with the downside of a guy that can be (and has been) effective on a bad team with limited touches at the cost of a 2nd round dart throw.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Lots of comparisons to Jamaal Charles out there, and I don't think I could pass up on that upside with the downside of a guy that can be (and has been) effective on a bad team with limited touches at the cost of a 2nd round dart throw.

He's not Jamaal Charles man. YMMV, but the Charles comparisons are just the typical in season Shark Pool kool aid guzzling BS that happens every time a random unknown has outlier efficiency metrics on a tiny sample size.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Lots of comparisons to Jamaal Charles out there, and I don't think I could pass up on that upside with the downside of a guy that can be (and has been) effective on a bad team with limited touches at the cost of a 2nd round dart throw.

He's not Jamaal Charles man. YMMV, but the Charles comparisons are just the typical in season Shark Pool kool aid guzzling BS that happens every time a random unknown has outlier efficiency metrics on a tiny sample size.

80% of what you post sounds like it came straight out of my head.

 

[Instinctive]

Who's buying Gronk and for what?

Where I don't own him, the owners seem willing to wait. Latest offer was Blackmon/Wright/2nd in 1.5 (TE) PPR league. Hoping I get a counter, at least.

I would be a buyer. Except I own him pretty much everywhere.

All the stories say he is dominating on the practice field. No reason to expect any less once he plays. Hell, I've got him in all my redrafts too.

His price has not changed even 1% from last year.

 

[EBF]

What's the mood on Cordarrelle Patterson? I didn't pick him in any rookie drafts and was pretty ho-hum on his outlook, but he has the height/weight/speed and the draft pedigree on paper to become a big time player down the road. I'm leery of Austin and Hopkins is overpriced (IMO). Patterson, on the other hand, looks like he could be an interesting buy low candidate. Right about this time last year Justin Blackmon was still doing nada and Michael Floyd was pretty much a complete zero.

Is now the time to make a move for Cordarrelle or is he just a dud?

Someone in my Dynasty league already beat me to it. You're right now is the time to get him if you believe in him. He's shown some flashes but the reality is he's still an unknown. I'd be willing to take that change because there's something about that way this kid runs with the ball in his hands that gives the impression that he can take it to the house at any given time. I hate i missed on him as I didn't think the original owner was interested in traded him. Count me as one of those that believe he's special and not being used properly in Minny but I'm not discounting the idea that maybe it could be his inability to grasp the playbook. Time will tell.

Tex

Out of curiosity, what was he dealt for?

Personally, I think absolutely nothing has changed for Patterson's outlook, so if something has changed for Patterson's price, it might be a good time to buy. Like EBF, I was never huge on the whole "OMG PATTERSON IS FROM THE MATRIX" train, but at the end of the day, he's a late first round pick with fantastic measurables and huge upside, and those guys are always worth taking a chance on.

I offered Ryan Matthews for Patterson, to get the conversation started and see where his owner stood. He countered with Patterson and his 2014 2nd (mid/late) for my Ben Tate. I think *on paper* that's a good trade for me, but I'm RB starved, and have some high hopes for Tate being a reliable starter for the next few years.

Anyway, there's at least one data point for Patterson's current value.

You're right that it makes sense on paper. On the other hand, I've never quite been able to sell myself on Patterson and Tate is coming up on free agency. I don't think Tate is some kind of a great talent in his own right, but if someone signs him to be a starter in the offseason (a very realistic possibility), his value will skyrocket. So while that deal looks like a free 2nd round pick in some ways, I could see it blowing up in your face too. Kind of a tough spot.

 

[EBF]

Who's buying Gronk and for what?

I must be the only Gronk skeptic on these boards.

Tremendous difference-maker when healthy up to this point in his career. Wouldn't touch him at his market price though.

Great size/speed combo, but I don't think he's a very agile athlete. Mainly don't believe that he's capable of staying healthy long term.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Who's buying Gronk and for what?

I must be the only Gronk skeptic on these boards.

Tremendous difference-maker when healthy up to this point in his career. Wouldn't touch him at his market price though.

Great size/speed combo, but I don't think he's a very agile athlete. Mainly don't believe that he's capable of staying healthy long term.

What about Graham? Can he stay healthy long-term?

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Who's buying Gronk and for what?

I must be the only Gronk skeptic on these boards.

Tremendous difference-maker when healthy up to this point in his career. Wouldn't touch him at his market price though.

Great size/speed combo, but I don't think he's a very agile athlete. Mainly don't believe that he's capable of staying healthy long term.

IMO it's reasonable to ding him for the injury ?s -- I personally don't, but provided you're consistently injury-risk-adverse (cough...Stewart) it's a valid reason to discount him.

As far as not being agile -- yeah, he looks kinda like Lurch out there sometimes, but really, who cares? It's easy to forget while he's out, but he's essentially Jimmy Graham except 2 1/2 years younger and with double the TDs. He can look like Frankenstein all he wants as long as he's trucking dudes into the end zone. I would, however, favor Graham on Dancing with the Stars in about 10 years.

 

[EBF]

Who's buying Gronk and for what?

I must be the only Gronk skeptic on these boards.

Tremendous difference-maker when healthy up to this point in his career. Wouldn't touch him at his market price though.

Great size/speed combo, but I don't think he's a very agile athlete. Mainly don't believe that he's capable of staying healthy long term.

What about Graham? Can he stay healthy long-term?

Yea, there is some irony in that for sure.

Putting the durability aside, I believe Graham is a better player than Gronk. He is the perfect TE. Has the height, leaping ability, and range to win jump balls. Has the speed to destroy the seam and make big plays downfield. Agile and nimble enough to evade defenders after the catch. He is everything that Tony Gonzalez was, but bigger and even more athletic.

Gronk is a pretty simple player. Catch the ball, turn upfield, and rumble in a straight line. It has been tremendously hard to stop because he's a big guy with rare speed for his size, but IMO he's not a complete athlete or player. I also think when you take that many direct shots, you are more likely to get hurt. I wouldn't say that I'd trade Gronk straight up for Jordan Cameron, but in a lot of ways he's more in line with the kind of players that I like. Not the overpowering entity that Gronk is, but much more fluid and athletic overall.

 

[lyon812]

Part of the value of a mega hyped prospect like Calvin or Bush is that he'll carry big trade value even if he's struggling.

I would be a better dynasty player if I could force myself to adopt this in my rookie drafts, but I'm literally unable to draft players I don't believe in. I can't make myself do it.

So what do you do if you have a pick and you don't believe in any available player?

I can't speak for Rob, but I'm pondering a new philosophy of always trading my picks for a pick in the same round in the next year whenever I don't see anyone on the board that I have confidence it. I think this could be especially profitable with late 1st round picks. You can almost always find someone in your league willing to give up a random future 1st for a pick in the 1.08-1.12 range. If you make that deal every year when you have a late 1st, there's very little downside and a lot of upside. In a worst case scenario, you'll end up with the last pick in the first round, which will probably be pretty similar in value to the pick you gave up (and which you can probably trade off again for another future 1st). In a best case scenario, you'll wind up with a top 3 pick, which is basically worth twice as much as you gave up.

You could pretty much repeat that cycle until you get lucky and wind up with a top 3-4 pick.

This is dead on. I've found that there's almost always someone that wants "their guy", even in the middle rounds. In many of my leagues, current draft picks can be sold for a round higher the next year.

Taking advantage of this to sell thirds for seconds or seconds for firsts is, unsurprisingly, very beneficial to teams that are willing to punt on draft picks. A few times it's had very surprisingly beneficial results, so that I traded a late second for a first that wound up being 1.01 or 1.02.

 

[EBF]

This is dead on. I've found that there's almost always someone that wants "their guy", even in the middle rounds. In many of my leagues, current draft picks can be sold for a round higher the next year.
Taking advantage of this to sell thirds for seconds or seconds for firsts is, unsurprisingly, very beneficial to teams that are willing to punt on draft picks. A few times it's had very surprisingly beneficial results, so that I traded a late second for a first that wound up being 1.01 or 1.02.

As I've said many times now, I think building a really dominant dynasty team is mainly about collecting as many of the top level players as possible. How do you get those players? Every now and then you might be able to snag a Victor Cruz or Alfred Morris off the wire for nothing or land a Brandon Marshall or Jimmy Graham for cheap in a rookie draft. In general though, top players come into the league with a lot of fanfare and hype. If you're not the guy holding the 1.02 rookie pick when Andrew Luck, Justin Blackmon, and Doug Martin are out there, you're not going to get those players. It's basically impossible to pull off a trade for an AJ Green or Demaryius Thomas right now, but one thing you might be able to do is acquire the pick that will eventually become the next great player. Constantly recycling your 1st round rookie picks until you get lucky and score a top 3-4 pick is one way to put yourself in position to get those guys.

Trading this year's round X pick for next year's round X-1 pick is also a good practice if you can pull it off, but I think those deals are harder to get done. A smart owner probably isn't going to trade you a future 1st for a current 2nd. However, he is much more likely to move his random future 2nd for a current late 2nd or his random future 1st for a current late 1st. If you're the one getting the future pick in that case, there is very little downside and a decent amount of upside (especially when you make that move with a 1st rounder). Probably 50% of the value in any rookie draft is in the top 4-5 picks, so half the battle is just getting yourself in position to have as many of those picks as possible to give yourself a chance at Dez, Blackmon, Crabtree, etc.

 

[Concept Coop]

Gronk is a pretty simple player. Catch the ball, turn upfield, and rumble in a straight line. It has been tremendously hard to stop because he's a big guy with rare speed for his size, but IMO he's not a complete athlete or player. I also think when you take that many direct shots, you are more likely to get hurt. I wouldn't say that I'd trade Gronk straight up for Jordan Cameron, but in a lot of ways he's more in line with the kind of players that I like. Not the overpowering entity that Gronk is, but much more fluid and athletic overall.

Usain Bolt doesn't look like a traditional sprinter. At what point does our pre-production stance on a player become moot? He's been the best fantasy TE in history (/season). At some point - I think we can stop worrying about how a player is producing and enjoy the production.

Gronk's the best redzone target in the league. He's too much for any single DB or LB to cover - for different reasons. I don't see that changing and expect more of the same when he returns. I'd say, P4P, Gronk is one of the more fluid athletes in the league, myself.

 

[EBF]

Gronk is a pretty simple player. Catch the ball, turn upfield, and rumble in a straight line. It has been tremendously hard to stop because he's a big guy with rare speed for his size, but IMO he's not a complete athlete or player. I also think when you take that many direct shots, you are more likely to get hurt. I wouldn't say that I'd trade Gronk straight up for Jordan Cameron, but in a lot of ways he's more in line with the kind of players that I like. Not the overpowering entity that Gronk is, but much more fluid and athletic overall.

Usain Bolt doesn't look like a traditional sprinter. At what point does our pre-production stance on a player become moot? He's been the best fantasy TE in history (PPG). At some point - I think we can stop worrying about how a player is producing and enjoy the production.

Gronk's the best redzone target in the league. He's too much for any single DB or LB to cover - for different reasons. I don't see that changing and expect more of the same when he returns. I'd say, P4P, Gronk is one of the more fluid athletes in the league, myself.

There are a lot of variables that go into production. Scheme, supporting cast, and talent to name a few. In general, the best players are going to produce the best numbers, but that doesn't mean production is a perfect indicator of ability. That's why the argument that he has X ppg and is therefore a lock HoF caliber superstar doesn't totally resonate with me. Wes Welker is a machine in FF, but IRL I don't rate him as a top 10 WR in the league.

To use another example from the same position, Julius Thomas is currently producing right on par with Jordan Cameron. I happen to think Cameron is a much better talent despite that. Julius is a perfect example of right player-right scheme. He is playing on a dominant offense with a great QB where he can scoop up the leftovers of all the mismatches created by his teammates. He obviously has some merit in his own right, but if you stuck him on the Browns with junk QBs and a relatively weak supporting cast, would he be scoring like Jordan Cameron? I highly doubt it. I think Cameron is a much more impressive athlete. I clearly prefer him in dynasty.

This is not based on pre-production opinions. I was asleep at the wheel on Cameron for the entire first two years of his career and have never owned him in an FF league until a redraft this year. Same for Julius Thomas. I essentially had no opinion on these players until late August of this year. I just happen to genuinely believe that Cameron is a better talent than Julius based on everything I've seen since then. Just like I genuinely believe that Graham is a better talent than Gronk. That is not based on statistics. It is based on statistics and subjective analysis. I will always favor a player who puts up numbers and looks legit over a player who puts up numbers, but doesn't fully pass the eyeball test.

I am not as impressed with Gronk as you are. He is not one of the most fluid TEs in the game. Countless players trump him in that regard. Graham, Cameron, Eifert, Witten, Gonzo, Keller, and Pitta to name a few. What makes him effective is that he's huge and very fast for his size. So when he catches a pass, he becomes very hard to bring down. Agility is not one of his strong points though. He is not a WR-like route runner like Cameron or Eifert. He is not an elusive open field runner. He has virtually no ability to alter his momentum once he gets going and is extremely prone to big hits as a result. His modus operandi is uncover, catch the ball, run in a straight line, crash directly into whoever tries to stop you. There's not necessarily anything wrong with that as long as it works. And it has been working quite well. However, just like with Wes Welker or Julius Thomas, the fact that he might be producing elite HoF numbers doesn't necessarily mean I automatically have to rank him as an elite HoF talent on merit alone. Stats and talent are tightly related, but they aren't quite the same thing.

For me, Gronk isn't and never has been on my list of untouchable lock dynasty first rounders. I would still rank him as the #2 player at his position based on what he's achieved up to now, but I would never draft him at his ADP in a startup. If I owned him and I had the chance to trade him for Jordan Cameron + picks, I would be intrigued. One guy I like a little less than the consensus. One guy I like a little more.

 

[renesauz]

I'm surprised that people are only valuing him like a 2nd rounder. If that's the case I'm going to go after him in the leagues that I don't already own him.

Come May of next year, I think I'd be hard pressed to come up with someone available in the 2nd round of my rookie draft that has more promise than Ellington has right now. Lots of comparisons to Jamaal Charles out there, and I don't think I could pass up on that upside with the downside of a guy that can be (and has been) effective on a bad team with limited touches at the cost of a 2nd round dart throw.

I agree with this. Going to put a few feelers out I think

 

[Bobbyn2022]

Gordon or Blackmon?

Man that is a tough one. Both play on awful teams. Blackmon was obviously the better WR in collage. I live Gordon but I think he's a boom bust play every week. Blackmon is a guy who can run every route and can break tackles. 2 different type of WR. Gordon reminds me of Moss just can't jump like Moss and Blackmon Reminds me of Dez/Boldin. Personally I love both. Both guys could be suspended at anytime both have off the field issues but I think Jags end up getting Bridgewater and that's why I like Blackmon more.

 

[Concept Coop]

There are a lot of variables that go into production. Scheme, supporting cast, and talent to name a few. In general, the best players are going to produce the best numbers, but that doesn't mean production is a perfect indicator of ability. That's why the argument that he has X ppg and is therefore a lock HoF caliber superstar doesn't totally resonate with me. Wes Welker is a machine in FF, but IRL I don't rate him as a top 10 WR in the league.

To use another example from the same position, Julius Thomas is currently producing right on par with Jordan Cameron. I happen to think Cameron is a much better talent despite that. Julius is a perfect example of right player-right scheme. He is playing on a dominant offense with a great QB where he can scoop up the leftovers of all the mismatches created by his teammates. He obviously has some merit in his own right, but if you stuck him on the Browns with junk QBs and a relatively weak supporting cast, would he be scoring like Jordan Cameron? I highly doubt it. I think Cameron is a much more impressive athlete. I clearly prefer him in dynasty.

This is not based on pre-production opinions. I was asleep at the wheel on Cameron for the entire first two years of his career and have never owned him in an FF league until a redraft this year. Same for Julius Thomas. I essentially had no opinion on these players until late August of this year. I just happen to genuinely believe that Cameron is a better talent than Julius based on everything I've seen since then. Just like I genuinely believe that Graham is a better talent than Gronk. That is not based on statistics. It is based on statistics and subjective analysis. I will always favor a player who puts up numbers and looks legit over a player who puts up numbers, but doesn't fully pass the eyeball test.

I am not as impressed with Gronk as you are. He is not one of the most fluid TEs in the game. Countless players trump him in that regard. Graham, Cameron, Eifert, Witten, Gonzo, Keller, and Pitta to name a few. What makes him effective is that he's huge and very fast for his size. So when he catches a pass, he becomes very hard to bring down. Agility is not one of his strong points though. He is not a WR-like route runner like Cameron or Eifert. He is not an elusive open field runner. He has virtually no ability to alter his momentum once he gets going and is extremely prone to big hits as a result. His modus operandi is uncover, catch the ball, run in a straight line, crash directly into whoever tries to stop you. There's not necessarily anything wrong with that as long as it works. And it has been working quite well. However, just like with Wes Welker or Julius Thomas, the fact that he might be producing elite HoF numbers doesn't necessarily mean I automatically have to rank him as an elite HoF talent on merit alone. Stats and talent are tightly related, but they aren't quite the same thing.

For me, Gronk isn't and never has been on my list of untouchable lock dynasty first rounders. I would still rank him as the #2 player at his position based on what he's achieved up to now, but I would never draft him at his ADP in a startup. If I owned him and I had the chance to trade him for Jordan Cameron + picks, I would be intrigued. One guy I like a little less than the consensus. One guy I like a little more.

He's built like a professional wrestler and beats NFL DBs with his routes. That's fluid to me. He gets open, catches the ball, and scores TDs. Gronk's a mismatch, and that isn't going to change. Scheme has nothing to do with Gronk consistently winning 1 on 1 battles. And he does it as much as anyone.

He's is the Jon Jones of the NFL: You might not find it pretty, but he will elbow your face, and you will cave.

 

[lyon812]

What's the mood on Cordarrelle Patterson? I didn't pick him in any rookie drafts and was pretty ho-hum on his outlook, but he has the height/weight/speed and the draft pedigree on paper to become a big time player down the road. I'm leery of Austin and Hopkins is overpriced (IMO). Patterson, on the other hand, looks like he could be an interesting buy low candidate. Right about this time last year Justin Blackmon was still doing nada and Michael Floyd was pretty much a complete zero.

Is now the time to make a move for Cordarrelle or is he just a dud?

In the Twitterverse I've seen quite a few mentions recently of fans being disappointed in Patterson. I'm not sure why--when he came out, he was touted as a very talented but raw prospect that wouldn't help immediately. Not surprisingly, come Week 6 some people forget that entirely and are shocked he isn't putting up huge numbers or snap counts. I don't think there's any way to tell if he's a dud yet. Austin, by comparison, has been on the field a lot more, and shown very little--whether it's his fault or that of Schottenheimer can be debated.

Honestly, the amount of people that sour on rookies because they don't become superstars right out of the gate is both amazing and depressing. It's also ripe for exploitation via trade.

 

[Concept Coop]

Honestly, the amount of people that sour on rookies because they don't become superstars right out of the gate is both amazing and depressing. It's also ripe for exploitation via trade.

Patterson, Kelce, Ball, Wheaton, Michael, Patton, Bailey...plenty of discounted talent out there.

 

[lyon812]

I drafted him in the 3rd in a few leagues, and while he's looked very good, I see him as a probable 3rd down RBBC type long term, and he's in a system / team that's going to make it hard to have consistent fantasy relevance moving forward. I'd move him for less than RB2 type prices; he's been on the block for a few weeks with barely a hint of interest.

I agree, re: long term prospects. I'd pay a future 2nd for him right now, in traditional PPR leagues. He's scoring points right now and carving out a bigger role. Not ready to pay more than that, however.

I like Ellington, but Arians said recently they view him as a 30-32 snap back. A few weeks prior to that, he said Ellington was a three-down back. Reading between the lines, I think they're comfortable using him in any situation, but don't believe his small frame can hold up to heavy usage. This somewhat caps his upside..though I love what he's flashed.

As far as trading for him, I've made several inquiries about him and been turned down every time. His owners have noticed he's performed well and seem to be waiting to see what they have in him.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Gronk may not be fluid, but I think he's got ridiculous football sense or vision or whatever you want to call it. He's just constantly where he needs to be at the right time for his QB. That's an innate talent IMO.

 

[Concept Coop]

Gronk may not be fluid, but I think he's got ridiculous football sense or vision or whatever you want to call it. He's just constantly where he needs to be at the right time for his QB. That's an innate talent IMO.

It's what makes Jason Witten so great.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

I drafted him in the 3rd in a few leagues, and while he's looked very good, I see him as a probable 3rd down RBBC type long term, and he's in a system / team that's going to make it hard to have consistent fantasy relevance moving forward. I'd move him for less than RB2 type prices; he's been on the block for a few weeks with barely a hint of interest.

I agree, re: long term prospects. I'd pay a future 2nd for him right now, in traditional PPR leagues. He's scoring points right now and carving out a bigger role. Not ready to pay more than that, however.

I like Ellington, but Arians said recently they view him as a 30-32 snap back. A few weeks prior to that, he said Ellington was a three-down back. Reading between the lines, I think they're comfortable using him in any situation, but don't believe his small frame can hold up to heavy usage. This somewhat caps his upside..though I love what he's flashed.

As far as trading for him, I've made several inquiries about him and been turned down every time. His owners have noticed he's performed well and seem to be waiting to see what they have in him.

Yeah, people tend to fall in love with and wildly overrate any young player that shows any signs of life. Ellington is under 200 pounds and running slower than 4.6 -- he was a 6th round pick for a reason. His own coach is saying he's a part timer. And the situation sucks.

Don't get me wrong -- I'm pleasantly surprised that a 3rd round FF rookie in a bad class is doing anything. He's exceeded expectations by still being on my roster, but he's still a huge longshot to hold long term value. Unfortunately none of the "he's the next Charles" crew play in any of the leagues I own him in.

 

[Concept Coop]

Gio Bernard has really surprised me. I was only warm on his NFL chances, but he's quickly on his way to exceeding my expectations. The elephant in the room is the question of his production and explosiveness holding up with a heavily increased role. Still some question there, but I didn't expect him to be this electric at an NFL level.

Top 5 dynasty back? Top 10?

 

[jeter23]

Gio Bernard has really surprised me. I was only warm on his NFL chances, but he's quickly on his way to exceeding my expectations. The elephant in the room is the question of his production and explosiveness holding up with a heavily increased role. Still some question there, but I didn't expect him to be this electric at an NFL level.

Top 5 dynasty back? Top 10?

I already have him ranked as RB6. I offered Spiller+ for him in a contract league (Spiller-2, Gio-4) and was quickly shot down with no counter. So, clearly some nice value there. No reason to think he won't keep it up, even if BJGE stays around another year.

 

[Concept Coop]

Gio Bernard has really surprised me. I was only warm on his NFL chances, but he's quickly on his way to exceeding my expectations. The elephant in the room is the question of his production and explosiveness holding up with a heavily increased role. Still some question there, but I didn't expect him to be this electric at an NFL level.

Top 5 dynasty back? Top 10?

I already have him ranked as RB6. I offered Spiller+ for him in a contract league (Spiller-2, Gio-4) and was quickly shot down with no counter. So, clearly some nice value there. No reason to think he won't keep it up, even if BJGE stays around another year.

I offered Josh Gordon for him in a league and was shot down with no counter. Not sure I would make that offer in a vaccum, but it made sense for this roster.

It really goes to show how small the buy window can be. Anyone that trades for him now is going to overpay. At one point Gio was in a group with Bell, Lacy, Ball, Miller, and Wilson (and Patterson, Tavon, Nuk). Today - 6 weeks in - his value is likely double that of anyone else on that list.

 

[duaneok66]

Who's buying Gronk and for what?

I must be the only Gronk skeptic on these boards.

Tremendous difference-maker when healthy up to this point in his career. Wouldn't touch him at his market price though.

Great size/speed combo, but I don't think he's a very agile athlete. Mainly don't believe that he's capable of staying healthy long term.

Agree with this - multiple surgeries over one offseason is a bad sign - most people "assume" he will pick up right where he left off . . .

And this is assuming he gets on the field anytime soon -

 

[lbouchard]

Gio Bernard has really surprised me. I was only warm on his NFL chances, but he's quickly on his way to exceeding my expectations. The elephant in the room is the question of his production and explosiveness holding up with a heavily increased role. Still some question there, but I didn't expect him to be this electric at an NFL level.

Top 5 dynasty back? Top 10?

I already have him ranked as RB6. I offered Spiller+ for him in a contract league (Spiller-2, Gio-4) and was quickly shot down with no counter. So, clearly some nice value there. No reason to think he won't keep it up, even if BJGE stays around another year.

I offered Josh Gordon for him in a league and was shot down with no counter. Not sure I would make that offer in a vaccum, but it made sense for this roster.

It really goes to show how small the buy window can be. Anyone that trades for him now is going to overpay. At one point Gio was in a group with Bell, Lacy, Ball, Miller, and Wilson (and Patterson, Tavon, Nuk). Today - 6 weeks in - his value is likely double that of anyone else on that list.

I have him as a top 5 dynasty back. I bought before this weekend. I paid Arian Foster, Reggie Wayne, and Steven Jackson to a contender. I got Gio back. I'm rebuilding, focused on next year.

 

[lyon812]

Gio Bernard has really surprised me. I was only warm on his NFL chances, but he's quickly on his way to exceeding my expectations. The elephant in the room is the question of his production and explosiveness holding up with a heavily increased role. Still some question there, but I didn't expect him to be this electric at an NFL level.

Top 5 dynasty back? Top 10?

I already have him ranked as RB6. I offered Spiller+ for him in a contract league (Spiller-2, Gio-4) and was quickly shot down with no counter. So, clearly some nice value there. No reason to think he won't keep it up, even if BJGE stays around another year.

I offered Josh Gordon for him in a league and was shot down with no counter. Not sure I would make that offer in a vaccum, but it made sense for this roster.

It really goes to show how small the buy window can be. Anyone that trades for him now is going to overpay. At one point Gio was in a group with Bell, Lacy, Ball, Miller, and Wilson. Today - 6 weeks in - his value is likely double that of anyone else on that list.

Gio Bernard has really surprised me. I was only warm on his NFL chances, but he's quickly on his way to exceeding my expectations. The elephant in the room is the question of his production and explosiveness holding up with a heavily increased role. Still some question there, but I didn't expect him to be this electric at an NFL level.

Top 5 dynasty back? Top 10?

I already have him ranked as RB6. I offered Spiller+ for him in a contract league (Spiller-2, Gio-4) and was quickly shot down with no counter. So, clearly some nice value there. No reason to think he won't keep it up, even if BJGE stays around another year.

I offered Josh Gordon for him in a league and was shot down with no counter. Not sure I would make that offer in a vaccum, but it made sense for this roster.

It really goes to show how small the buy window can be. Anyone that trades for him now is going to overpay. At one point Gio was in a group with Bell, Lacy, Ball, Miller, and Wilson. Today - 6 weeks in - his value is likely double that of anyone else on that list.

Speaking of Lacy, the window's probably shut on him as well, especially after his strong showing against the Ravens D. I've made multiple overtures to acquire him and been rebuffed. I was hopeful once I saw how many people were overly quick to deify Jonathan Franklin after his big game (i.e., saying that there was no way they wouldn't split carries when Lacy got back), but everyone was holding.

 

[Concept Coop]

I have him as a top 5 dynasty back. I bought before this weekend. I paid Arian Foster, Reggie Wayne, and Steven Jackson to a contender. I got Gio back. I'm rebuilding, focused on next year.

I think that's a fair ranking. After Shady, Charles, and Martin there are question marks. I'd still take Spiller over him, and ADP too, if I'm in the hunt. After that, it's likely Gio for me.

 

[duaneok66]

Gio is obviously good - but as one poster said earlier (either EBF or Coop) I question his ability to hold up over a whole season. Coeur de Lion talked about people jumping on a back that shows stuff -

right now I think Gio is overrated - he is pretty slight, so I want him to show if for a whole season. Now people will reply "the window would then be closed". I am fine with that. I just don't think you should overpay at this point.

--------------

Awesome thread by the way - thanks to Adam, CDL, CC, and EBF especially for great content!!

 

[EBF]

I'm trying not to get too crazy with the "he won't stay healthy" stuff in the future. Especially when it comes to undersized RBs. I do think RBs who are both undersized and really bad at avoiding contact are extremely unlikely to stay healthy (i.e. McFadden and Murray), but only one of those traits alone doesn't seem to be fatal.

Ultimately, I believe in the idea of injury prone-ness, but I also believe that it's pretty difficult to predict apart from the occasional obvious guy like Beanie Wells or DeMarco Murray. Trent Richardson, Bernard Piece, Christine Michael, and Gio Bernard are four of the top backs to enter the league in the last two years. They also all have some durability red flags in their background. At some point you just have to take the talent and cross your fingers that he can stay healthy.

So even though Gio has concussion and knee problems in his past, moving forward I think his value hinges mainly on his talent. His rookie year reminds me a little bit of part-timers like McCoy, Rice, and MJD who went on to become studs. On the other hand, the fact that people already value him pretty close to that level means there's a lot less margin for error at his market price. I like him, but have no plans to make strong moves for him right now.

IMO the top three dynasty RB buys are Christine Michael, Bernard Pierce, and Bryce Brown, probably in that order. All are potential top 10 RB talents who don't carry that market price. I'd also add Ben Tate and *gasp* Jonathan Stewart in there as well.

I got in some trouble this past season spending decent value to get established mediocrities like Ryan Mathews and Rashard Mendenhall. Those guys are decent players when healthy, but moving forward I plan to emphasize upside and potential more. I feel like the only thing separating Michael and Pierce from being top 10 RBs is opportunity, so they make a lot of sense from that standpoint. Also still believe a healthy J-Stew is a star caliber talent, so he's an interesting one too if you can stomach the obvious issues there.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

I'm trying not to get too crazy with the "he won't stay healthy" stuff in the future. Especially when it comes to undersized RBs. I do think RBs who are both undersized and really bad at avoiding contact are extremely unlikely to stay healthy (i.e. McFadden and Murray), but only one of those traits alone doesn't seem to be fatal.

Ultimately, I believe in the idea of injury prone-ness, but I also believe that it's pretty difficult to predict apart from the occasional obvious guy like Beanie Wells or DeMarco Murray. Trent Richardson, Bernard Piece, Christine Michael, and Gio Bernard are four of the top backs to enter the league in the last two years. They also all have some durability red flags in their background. At some point you just have to take the talent and cross your fingers that he can stay healthy.

So even though Gio has concussion and knee problems in his past, moving forward I think his value hinges mainly on his talent. His rookie year reminds me a little bit of part-timers like McCoy, Rice, and MJD who went on to become studs. On the other hand, the fact that people already value him pretty close to that level means there's a lot less margin for error at his market price. I like him, but have no plans to make strong moves for him right now.

IMO the top three dynasty RB buys are Christine Michael, Bernard Pierce, and Bryce Brown, probably in that order. All are potential top 10 RB talents who don't carry that market price. I'd also add Ben Tate and *gasp* Jonathan Stewart in there as well.

I got in some trouble this past season spending decent value to get established mediocrities like Ryan Mathews and Rashard Mendenhall. Those guys are decent players when healthy, but moving forward I plan to emphasize upside and potential more. I feel like the only thing separating Michael and Pierce from being top 10 RBs is opportunity, so they make a lot of sense from that standpoint. Also still believe a healthy J-Stew is a star caliber talent, so he's an interesting one too if you can stomach the obvious issues there.

Really really

I love Gio's talent, but I hate buying guys at their upside, period. I'm also a big fan of the proven talent, no path to a big role guys, particularly Brown and Pierce, who have been eclipsed by the newer flavors of the month. The cream rises (usually, anyway).

 

[Concept Coop]

I love Gio's talent, but I hate buying guys at their upside, period.

Once a player's market value gets too close to what I view as their peak value - I stay away. Gio falls under that category, right now. Because of the question marks around the RB field - I do think he's a top 5-7 back. I've got him in that range. But I'd take Lacy + the difference in market value. Or give the difference for McCoy.

David Wilson fell into that category for me, coming into this season. I thought that there were similar prospects going MUCH later. My argument was: give me Gio(or Lacy) + the 2 rd difference in start up value.

On the other hand: I made the same argument against drafting Dez Bryant after his rookie season. He was going late first in start-ups and I thought it was crazy: if you're right - you paid fair market value for a top 5 dynasty WR. If you're wrong, you lost major value. The owners that drafted him were right, and - seeing as how I view Dez as a tier 1 player - they even gained some value. It can certainly go both ways.

It's risk/reward, and finding a balance that works for you. Once I am late on a player, I try not to compound my mistake by chasing. Trading for Gio at his current price is chasing - and you don't win races by chasing the leader, to be cliche.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Green = the least talented of the Julio/Dez/Demaryius/Green group.

Probably leapfrogs Julio with the foot stuff, but not clearly above the other guys.

Least gifted? Absolutely. Least talented? I'm not seeing it.

I think Green is very good and that his minor slump will level off eventually. He's a clear top 5 dynasty WR for me.

Having said that, I definitely question the perception of him as some kind of a godly talent. I think he's closer to Reggie Wayne than Calvin/Randy/TO.

Some interesting numbers including 2012 + 2013.

Player / Targets / Catches / Yards / Conversion Rate / Yards Per Target

Dez Bryant / 184 / 121 / 1805 / 65.7% / 9.81

Julio Jones / 189 / 120 / 1778 / 63.5% / 9.41

Demaryius Thomas / 185 / 128 / 1884 / 69.2% / 10.18

AJ Green / 223 / 128 / 1711 / 57.4% / 7.67

As you can see, Green lags way behind the other elite young receivers from this perspective. He has the most targets (by far) yet the fewest yards. He has the lowest conversion rate and the lowest yards per target. It's not even close. The difference is so extreme that Thomas is going to catch 10%+ more of his targets and average 32% more yards every time he's targeted. Part of this is probably related to the fact that Dalton is a weaker QB than Romo/Ryan/Peyton and that Green plays with the least talented supporting cast, but at what point do we start to hold him accountable for being substantially less effective than other top young players at his position?

I don't put that much stock in Football Outsiders, but this season they have these four receivers at the following DVOA numbers:

Bryant 25.0%

Jones 19.4%

Thomas 20.7%

Green -10.6%

I still like Green to have a very strong career, but maybe he's just not quite the dynamo people make him out to be. If I was an NFL corner, I'd be a lot more worried lining up against Julio or Demaryius than Green. Green can beat you with technique and ball skills, but he's not the scary TO/Calvin/Andre/Randy level athlete.

I think you've failed to put enough weight into the QBs the WRs have throwing them the ball.

Bryant - Romo

Jones - Ryan

Thomas - Manning

Green - Dalton?

Of course the QB is going to play a big role, but is it going to make a difference of 2+ yards per every throw? I'm not so sure.

Here is the YPA for the four quarterbacks during the same 2012-2013 time span:

Romo - 7.69

Ryan - 7.64

Manning - 8.38

Dalton - 6.95

Now compare it with the YPT of the receivers:

Dez Bryant - 9.81

Julio Jones - 9.41

Demaryius Thomas - 10.18

AJ Green - 7.67

The difference between the worst of the QB group (Dalton) and the best of the QB group (Manning) is 1.43 yards per throw.

The difference between the worst of the WR group (Green) and the best of the QB group (Thomas) is 2.51 yards per throw.

In other words, Manning > Dalton should be worth about 1.5 yards per target, but Thomas is outproducing Green by 2.5 yards per target.

This is not a perfect way of looking at the numbers, but I think it offers some subtle support for the idea that Green's inferior output isn't entirely explained by his bad QB. He has been MUCH less effective than the other elite young WRs over the past 1+ seasons and I'm not sure you can blame that all on circumstance. Playing with Dalton and having a weak supporting cast definitely hurts him, but maybe another variable is that he just isn't quite the dominant force he's made out to be.

By the way, EBF...

Percy Harvin - 7.96

Christian Ponder - 6.08

Just sayin'...

 

[Adam Harstad]

Gronk may not be fluid, but I think he's got ridiculous football sense or vision or whatever you want to call it. He's just constantly where he needs to be at the right time for his QB. That's an innate talent IMO.

It's what makes Jason Witten so great.

Yeah, Jason Witten is another guy who I've never really considered "fluid", either. Jason Witten has never looked like a Wide Receiver. He's caught a bazillion passes, and every single time he's looked like a tight end rather than a receiver who happens to line up at tight end. He's not all that agile or fluid, he doesn't have any sick moves, he's just smart and reliable. And he's parlayed that into one hell of a career. No player in history has had more receptions through age 30 than Jason Witten (although Larry Fitzgerald is just 12 behind and, unless his hamstring injury becomes a serious issue, is a lock to take the crown).

I'll admit to being suckered by Dustin Keller's ability to make everything look so sexy and effortless. At the end of the day, producing ugly is still producing.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Gio Bernard has really surprised me. I was only warm on his NFL chances, but he's quickly on his way to exceeding my expectations. The elephant in the room is the question of his production and explosiveness holding up with a heavily increased role. Still some question there, but I didn't expect him to be this electric at an NFL level.

Top 5 dynasty back? Top 10?

I like Bernard, but I like him a lot more in the 10-12 range. I could see moving him up as high as the 6-8 range depending on team circumstances and scoring system. He looks really good, but for me to place a guy in the top 5, he has to be showing a lot more than Bernard has so far- my top 5 guys are all multiple pro bowl / potential 1st team All Pro types, and Gio hasn't shown me enough where I'd be comfortable projecting him there.

As a rule, I try to avoid trading for players coming off of good games or good stretches. I'm not perfect at sticking with it, but I usually regret it when I disregard it. It's so easy to get blinded by the only data we have to go on that we lose sight of the fact that even 6 games is still just a miniscule sample size, and probably 90+% of the guys at the top of the leaderboard right now are due for some heavy regression.

 

[EBF]

I think Witten is a pretty fluid athlete. Not necessarily an explosive guy, but economical and precise. He's about as far removed from Gronk style-wise as Keyshawn was from TO. No real similarities other than their height and the position they play, which is why I didn't bother to respond to the initial comparison.

Fluidity is one of the most important qualities in sports. It also happens to be one of the most enigmatic. There is no drill to measure it. It's a subjective "know it when you see it" kind of thing. That means it's very difficult to debate. You can say Gronk is fluid. I can say he isn't. Nothing will change either side's mind.

Ultimately, a player doesn't need to be perfect to be successful. I think Gronk has warts, but his size/speed combo is clearly a matchup problem for NFL defenses. I don't think he's as good as many of you think he is, but I also don't think he's garbage. I just don't rate him as a first tier dynasty player or even as the top TE. I felt that way going into the season and I still feel that way now. Gronk is nice, but the best Jimmy Graham is better than the best Rob Gronkowski.

There's no shame in that. Graham is probably the most talented receiving TE to ever play the game. He's like a Madden create-a-player.

 

[Adam Harstad]

I think Witten is a pretty fluid athlete. Not necessarily an explosive guy, but economical and precise. He's about as far removed from Gronk style-wise as Keyshawn was from TO. No real similarities other than their height and the position they play, which is why I didn't bother to respond to the initial comparison.

Fluidity is one of the most important qualities in sports. It also happens to be one of the most enigmatic. There is no drill to measure it. It's a subjective "know it when you see it" kind of thing. That means it's very difficult to debate. You can say Gronk is fluid. I can say he isn't. Nothing will change either side's mind.

Ultimately, a player doesn't need to be perfect to be successful. I think Gronk has warts, but his size/speed combo is clearly a matchup problem for NFL defenses. I don't think he's as good as many of you think he is, but I also don't think he's garbage. I just don't rate him as a first tier dynasty player or even as the top TE. I felt that way going into the season and I still feel that way now. Gronk is nice, but the best Jimmy Graham is better than the best Rob Gronkowski.

There's no shame in that. Graham is probably the most talented receiving TE to ever play the game. He's like a Madden create-a-player.

You know, I completely agree that Jimmy Graham at his best is better than Rob Gronkowski at his best 90% of the time. It's just that the 10% of the time it's not true is from the 10 yard line, the 9 yard line, the 8 yard line, the 7 yard line, the 6 yard line, the 5 yard line, the 4 yard line, the 3 yard line, the 2 yard line, and the 1 yard line. And as long as fantasy leagues consistently overweight touchdowns...

You say that Jimmy Graham is the "Madden Create-A-Player". I'd disagree slightly- I'd say Graham is the "create-a-player" version of a receiving TE, but if you were going to create an all-around TE, you'd make Rob Gronkowski- he's just so much bigger and stronger than anyone else that Madden would have to implement ragdoll physics just to make his blocking look realistic. I'd also say that if you were going to create a red zone weapon, I can't imagine him looking like anything other than Gronk. In a compressed field, Gronk's power and ferocity mean a lot more than Graham's effortless fluidity.

In my yardage-heavy dynasty (1 point per 5 yards rushing/receiving, 1 point per 10 yards passing), I'd rate Graham and Gronk much closer together than I would in more standard dynasties, just because I have a hard time seeing Jimmy Graham closing the TD gap in the long run. Hell, thinking about it, I'd probably prefer Graham straight up over Gronk in yardage-heavy scoring. Rob Gronkowski, on the other hand, was put on this earth to chew bubblegum and score touchdowns... and he's all out of bubblegum.