Dynasty Rankings (2 Viewers)

[Spin]

Can I get another Trent Richadson value check? Anyone buying? Selling? Top 10 for anyone, still? Top 15? 20?

Just over a month ago I called Gordon+Forte "buying low" for Trent. Today, I'd add to trent to get either. I don't remember such a fall from grace, without a major injury, suspension, or arrest. Crazy.

Traded Woodhead for Richardson yesterday to a guy trying to make a run this year. I'll stash him and see what happens at that price.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Can I get another Trent Richadson value check? Anyone buying? Selling? Top 10 for anyone, still? Top 15? 20?

Just over a month ago I called Gordon+Forte "buying low" for Trent. Today, I'd add to trent to get either. I don't remember such a fall from grace, without a major injury, suspension, or arrest. Crazy.

The trouble with buying low on him, is that I've found most of his owners aren't looking to sell low - and I can't blame them for that.

In two seperate leagues I have made some "buy low" type offers and they were both rejected:

- Brandon Bolden and a 2014 second round pick (right now it would be 2.04, but could moves into 2.06-2.07 range).

- Rashard Mendenhall , Chris Obayanna and a 2014 third (basically locked into 3.02).

Both were rejeceted, as I expected and while they admittedly aren't great offers, the trouble is, how much more do you want to give at this point? As bad as those offers look, they both could have potentially backfired for me.

 

[Spike]

The problem with trying to trade Blackmon now is the same as the problem with trying to trade him after his 4 game suspension was announced. He's more talented than anyone you could realistically get for him straight up. So you either ship him out for a vastly inferior player or you hang onto him and hope that he comes back.

With WR3 types being so replaceable, I don't see myself being tempted to move him by the kind of offers people are likely to accept.

Well put.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Can I get another Trent Richadson value check? Anyone buying? Selling? Top 10 for anyone, still? Top 15? 20?

Just over a month ago I called Gordon+Forte "buying low" for Trent. Today, I'd add to trent to get either. I don't remember such a fall from grace, without a major injury, suspension, or arrest. Crazy.

He's still a young RB with pedigree in what should be a good offense moving forward. He still might settle in as a 1000 YFS 10 TD power type guy -- FF RB2 style. I'd easily trade stuff lime Woodhead, Bolden + 2nd, or Mendenhall for him in any format. If nothing else, the lack of young RBs and his name will allow for a value spike either prior to next year or sometime after a big game.

 

[jeter23]

Can I get another Trent Richadson value check? Anyone buying? Selling? Top 10 for anyone, still? Top 15? 20?

Just over a month ago I called Gordon+Forte "buying low" for Trent. Today, I'd add to trent to get either. I don't remember such a fall from grace, without a major injury, suspension, or arrest. Crazy.

The trouble with buying low on him, is that I've found most of his owners are looking to sell low - and I can't blame them for that.

In two seperate leagues I have made some "buy low" type offers and they were both rejected:

- Brandon Bolden and a 2014 second round pick (right now it would be 2.04, but could moves into 2.06-2.07 range).

- Rashard Mendenhall , Chris Obayanna and a 2014 third (basically locked into 3.02).

Both were rejeceted, as I expected and while they admittedly aren't great offers, the trouble is, how much more do you want to give at this point? As bad as those offers look, they both could have potentially backfired for me.

I get that his value is way way down, but I don't see how either of those could backfire on you. Even if he continues his current level of play, loses the starting job in TC and never starts for a team again, the upside is worth a 2nd or Mendy/3rd.

I was considering giving Nicks for him in a 14 team PPR.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Can I get another Trent Richadson value check? Anyone buying? Selling? Top 10 for anyone, still? Top 15? 20?

Just over a month ago I called Gordon+Forte "buying low" for Trent. Today, I'd add to trent to get either. I don't remember such a fall from grace, without a major injury, suspension, or arrest. Crazy.

The trouble with buying low on him, is that I've found most of his owners are looking to sell low - and I can't blame them for that.

In two seperate leagues I have made some "buy low" type offers and they were both rejected:

- Brandon Bolden and a 2014 second round pick (right now it would be 2.04, but could moves into 2.06-2.07 range).

- Rashard Mendenhall , Chris Obayanna and a 2014 third (basically locked into 3.02).

Both were rejeceted, as I expected and while they admittedly aren't great offers, the trouble is, how much more do you want to give at this point? As bad as those offers look, they both could have potentially backfired for me.

There is no way giving garbage plus a mediocre pick backfires on you.

If there's a saving grace for Richardson is that Indy has already invested the pick in him. He's not going away. Its on the coaches to spend all next offseason designing the offense to make him look good.

 

[jeter23]

At what point do we begin to question the coaching in Indy overall? Everyone assumed that with Luck and decent weapons, they could post a ton of points on a weekly basis. Instead, they have been conservative, yet still can't get the run game going. This coaching staff has really not proven anything on an NFL level, considering it was Arians who led them for the majority of last season.

 

[Concept Coop]

I think his owners have one more chance to make the call on Richardson. Going into next season, we'll see plenty of fluff about him losing weight, learning the offense, and being "back". Whether it's accurate or not - we'll see. But it will happen. As pointed out above: they invested a good deal in him and will try to make good on it.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Can I get another Trent Richadson value check? Anyone buying? Selling? Top 10 for anyone, still? Top 15? 20?

Just over a month ago I called Gordon+Forte "buying low" for Trent. Today, I'd add to trent to get either. I don't remember such a fall from grace, without a major injury, suspension, or arrest. Crazy.

The trouble with buying low on him, is that I've found most of his owners are looking to sell low - and I can't blame them for that.

In two seperate leagues I have made some "buy low" type offers and they were both rejected:

- Brandon Bolden and a 2014 second round pick (right now it would be 2.04, but could moves into 2.06-2.07 range).

- Rashard Mendenhall , Chris Obayanna and a 2014 third (basically locked into 3.02).

Both were rejeceted, as I expected and while they admittedly aren't great offers, the trouble is, how much more do you want to give at this point? As bad as those offers look, they both could have potentially backfired for me.

I get that his value is way way down, but I don't see how either of those could backfire on you. Even if he continues his current level of play, loses the starting job in TC and never starts for a team again, the upside is worth a 2nd or Mendy/3rd.

I was considering giving Nicks for him in a 14 team PPR.

I guess "backfired" was too strong of a word to use, because as you said I wasn't offering anything all that valuable - a 2.03-2.06 could yield a useful player at least and there's the potential that Richardson remains useless. I guess the point was that it's hard to ofer much more at this point due to the fear of having it backfire.

Nicks would be a strong offer on your part and frankly I'd be hesitent to do that as I think there's a better chance of Nicks returning to form.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

At what point do we begin to question the coaching in Indy overall? Everyone assumed that with Luck and decent weapons, they could post a ton of points on a weekly basis. Instead, they have been conservative, yet still can't get the run game going. This coaching staff has really not proven anything on an NFL level, considering it was Arians who led them for the majority of last season.

Indy has two of the most impressive wins this season, handing Denver and Seattle their sole losses. They also beat San Fran which wasn't expected.

Also in fairness, Bradshaw was effective for a short time period and Donald Brown has looked pretty good for a pedestrian type back.

I agree though that next season theere should be a greater emphasis on getting Trent going. Right now the trade is looking bad for them.

 

[EBF]

Can I get another Trent Richadson value check? Anyone buying? Selling? Top 10 for anyone, still? Top 15? 20?

Just over a month ago I called Gordon+Forte "buying low" for Trent. Today, I'd add to trent to get either. I don't remember such a fall from grace, without a major injury, suspension, or arrest. Crazy.

I offered Russell Wilson and a late 2014 1st for him yesterday to a QB-needy team and was rejected without a counter.

I already have Richardson in a couple leagues, but I might throw out some more offers to see if anyone bites. I'm not going to rehash all of the arguments in here, but I think a lot of his struggles can be attributed to circumstance. The Colts are a bad running team and their usage of him has been very poor. Sunday night was a good example. He gets 5-6 carries and has decent numbers. Then they fall behind by three touchdowns and he doesn't run the ball again until it's 2 minutes left in the 4th quarter and the whole stadium knows what's coming. He gets stuffed on those plays, his YPC drops to an ugly level, and everyone uses the game as another example of how much he sucks when in reality he never had much of a chance to get anything going.

I think we'll look back in a few years and see this as being another Marshawn Lynch/Thomas Jones situation where any overcorrection based on his early struggles will look foolish in hindsight. So if I can get him without removing a premium asset from my team, I'm definitely interested.

 

[Riffraff]

At what point do we begin to question the coaching in Indy overall? Everyone assumed that with Luck and decent weapons, they could post a ton of points on a weekly basis. Instead, they have been conservative, yet still can't get the run game going. This coaching staff has really not proven anything on an NFL level, considering it was Arians who led them for the majority of last season.

Pretty sure that was the gist of conversation prior to playing against Manning. They don't want Star Wars numbers anymore.

 

[EBF]

Stanford was a power running team under Pep Hamilton. When people think of recent Stanford football, they probably think of Andrew Luck, but in reality those teams were fairly conservative run-based offenses that used a dominant OL and Gerhart/Stepfan to set up the pass. They had NFL caliber weapons at WR/TE, but those guys generally weren't putting up gaudy numbers (Luck never had a 1000+ yard receiver in college). That's partially because the team wasn't really throwing THAT much and partially because Luck spreads the ball around instead of locking into one guy.

If the Stanford offense is indicative of what Hamilton wants to do with the Colts then I'd expect them to eventually become a power running team that covets versatility with its TE/WR options. They're already headed that direction with a lot of moveable chess piece types like Allen, Fleener, and Hilton. What they're missing that Stanford always had is a dominant OL. In the games I've seen since Trent joined they're getting blown up immediately. No RB is going to look good when the line is collapsing without any kind of a push. Look at what's happening in Baltimore this year.

This piece (which was written by a former Stanford OL) is a pretty decent view of the current Richardson situation:

http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2013/10/27/5034244/trent-richardson-trade-colts-offense

I think the encouraging thing from seeing him with the Colts is that the balance and power are all still there. He's just getting swarmed on every play. That's not fixable overnight, but in time they can improve that OL with draft picks and free agent signings.

 

[jdoggydogg]

I think his owners have one more chance to make the call on Richardson. Going into next season, we'll see plenty of fluff about him losing weight, learning the offense, and being "back". Whether it's accurate or not - we'll see. But it will happen. As pointed out above: they invested a good deal in him and will try to make good on it.

I watched a lot of Richardson games this year, and that's why I traded him for Steven Ridley this week. I don't know if it's a failure of coaching or Richardson just not getting it. But the guy has problems. He tries to run everything up the gut. He seems unwilling to break runs outside. I guess it's a question of vision. I think Richardson could still be a beast some day. But that isn't going to happen until he takes it to the next level.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Patoons

I should have known that. I've had a couple arguments with him over 29 year old WRs before.

 

[jeter23]

Patoons

I should have known that. I've had a couple arguments with him over 29 year old WRs before.

Haven't we all

 

[ConnSKINS26]

I appreciate the continued, possibly more level-headed Trent discussion in here.

I want to being back another guy that's about to come back--Shane Vereen. Ridley is looking good and comfortably fantasy startable again, and yet here comes Vereen.

He's got injury questions, but he's also got that Sproles-like ability out of the backfield and he's also a good runner, rivaling Ridley in some people's eyes.

So does this just become a mess to avoid once he's healthy and back, or is there great value here? Woodhead, and Sproles before him, is showing how valuable a consistently utilized receiving backs can be in PPR leagues.

So where are we ranking Vereen?

 

[Gottabesweet]

I sent Blackmon for Torrey Smith. Need Torrey this year. Like Blackmon more though

Ray Rice and Richardson I need to make decisions on soon. Thoughts on getting Doug Martin?

 

[ConnSKINS26]

I think Martin is the best buy-low in dynasty right now, if you can.

He'll be my dynasty RB1 again at the start of next season, TB should have a new regime and maybe a new QB. Fresh start, and Martin is still the same guy.

 

[EBF]

Yea, I like Martin a lot. Complete skill set. True three down back who can carry it 300+ times and also catch 50 balls in a year. That's FF gold.

Mike James is an okay back and if he has a few more good games then people might start to get scared off Dougie. I would caution against that. James is a solid player who could potentially become a no-nonsense BJGE/Greene/Mendy type of producer if given a starting role, but IMO he offers relatively little flash or elusiveness. Martin is quite a bit more explosive and agile, and I would expect him to reclaim full starter duties whenever he's healthy.

If you look at the value players like Gore, Forte, and Lynch have provided over their careers, I think that's a reasonable expectation for Martin.

 

[Concept Coop]

I think Martin is the best buy-low in dynasty right now, if you can.

He'll be my dynasty RB1 again at the start of next season, TB should have a new regime and maybe a new QB. Fresh start, and Martin is still the same guy.

I think he's a solid buy, but I do see downside in treating him as the top dynasty back. His situation will change drastically as a new coach is brought in, replacing Martin's biggest advocate, in terms of usage.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

I think Martin is the best buy-low in dynasty right now, if you can.

He'll be my dynasty RB1 again at the start of next season, TB should have a new regime and maybe a new QB. Fresh start, and Martin is still the same guy.

I think he's a solid buy, but I do see downside in treating him as the top dynasty back. His situation will change drastically as a new coach is brought in, replacing Martin's biggest advocate, in terms of usage.

It's possible. But I don't think it's likely. Even if they draft a QB, they'd be crazy not to lean on Martin for a while. He's that offense's best chance to succeed. And if they DO draft one of the top prospects, who can take the reigns immediately and do well with VJax/Williams, then that just opens things up for Martin.

I'm viewing a new regime as nothing but positive for Martin, until proven otherwise. TB is kind of top-heavy, talent-wise, but could undergo a quick turnaround under the right guidance. Either way, a great young RB on a fairly cheap contract, that's a guy you utilize heavily.

Edit: I'm not saying to buy him at #1 dynasty RB prices. I'm just saying that if I can buy low, I'm jumping at it, because he's likely to be my #1 dynasty RB going forward.

 

[Concept Coop]

I'm viewing a new regime as nothing but positive for Martin, until proven otherwise.

Not many teams lean on one guy as exclusively as TB has, nor target said option out of the backfield as much. I think this regime has played a big part in Martin's production. I do think he's a 3 down back and is plenty capable of being used as TB used him. But replacing a positive with a question mark is valid reason for pause, in my opinion.

He's only 7 months younger than LeSean McCoy; I can't value him on that tier right now. LeSean is a better NFL talent, more proven, in a better situation, etc.

I'd likely take Martin over Lacy right now, but it's dang close. I have Martin closer to Lacy than I do to Shady.

 

[Concept Coop]

So where are we ranking Vereen?

I haven't done rankings for a long time, so I can't put a number on it. But he's a high upside, young, talented back whose biggest negative in injury history. I feel very confident that he'll get his numbers, despite the use of other backs - namely, Ridley. He's a gamble, again, based on health. But, while healthy, I think he's a solid bet for mid-to-high RB2 numbers.

 

[Concept Coop]

Last year, in PPR formats, Vereen+Woodhead (combined) produced RB1 numbers. Again, I think there is room for him to get his, on top of Ridley doing the same.

 

[EBF]

Not many teams lean on one guy as exclusively as TB has, nor target said option out of the backfield as much. I think this regime has played a big part in Martin's production. I do think he's a 3 down back and is plenty capable of being used as TB used him. But replacing a positive with a question mark is valid reason for pause, in my opinion.

That's kind of a chicken and egg thing though. Is he only good because they use him that way or do they use him that way because he's good? I think it's more of the latter. The reason why teams give the ball to a back 350+ times in a season is usually because he's a very good player. In the same way that guys like Foster, McCoy, Charles, Lynch, Rice, and Forte command opportunities because they're good rather than saying they're good because they get opportunities.

I think people have consistently underrated Martin's talent level because he was a relatively unheralded small school late-riser prospect and he isn't a flashy 4.3 speed guy. In a lot of these debates you get the "well he's not as talented as X..." when in reality he's coming off one of the best rookie seasons by a RB ever. 4.6 YPC on a billion carries. Only Peterson and Spiller had more 20+ yard runs last season. He tied with Charles and had more than McCoy, Rice, Chris Johnson, etc. Tied for 7th among all NFL RBs in receptions last year. You can say that he was a pure compiler, but he actually had a higher yards per catch than McCoy, Peterson, Sproles, and Charles. He is very dangerous in space. Nobody else in the league really has his combination of power, elusiveness, and burst in space.

A big part of what separates him in dynasty from someone like Morris or Lacy is his open field ability. Those guys aren't going to catch 50+ passes in a year and do the damage in space that Martin can do. That's a huge plus in PPR. The guy is so mobile that he returned kicks in college as a 225 pound RB. He is a special athlete, but since people tend to look more at the raw speed/explosiveness and not the power/speed combo, I think they tend to undersell his ability.

 

[Concept Coop]

Not many teams lean on one guy as exclusively as TB has, nor target said option out of the backfield as much. I think this regime has played a big part in Martin's production. I do think he's a 3 down back and is plenty capable of being used as TB used him. But replacing a positive with a question mark is valid reason for pause, in my opinion.

That's kind of a chicken and egg thing though. Is he only good because they use him that way or do they use him that way because he's good? I think it's more of the latter. The reason why teams give the ball to a back 350+ times in a season is usually because he's a very good player. In the same way that guys like Foster, McCoy, Charles, Lynch, Rice, and Forte command opportunities because they're good rather than saying they're good because they get opportunities.

I think people have consistently underrated Martin's talent level because he was a relatively unheralded small school late-riser prospect and he isn't a flashy 4.3 speed guy. In a lot of these debates you get the "well he's not as talented as X..." when in reality he's coming off one of the best rookie seasons by a RB ever. 4.6 YPC on a billion carries. Only Peterson and Spiller had more 20+ yard runs last season. He tied with Charles and had more than McCoy, Rice, Chris Johnson, etc. Tied for 7th among all NFL RBs in receptions last year. You can say that he was a pure compiler, but he actually had a higher yards per catch than McCoy, Peterson, Sproles, and Charles. He is very dangerous in space. Nobody else in the league really has his combination of power, elusiveness, and burst in space.

A big part of what separates him in dynasty from someone like Morris or Lacy is his open field ability. Those guys aren't going to catch 50+ passes in a year and do the damage in space that Martin can do. That's a huge plus in PPR. The guy is so mobile that he returned kicks in college as a 225 pound RB. He is a special athlete, but since people tend to look more at the raw speed/explosiveness and not the power/speed combo, I think they tend to undersell his ability.

I don't mean to suggest he's not a talent; I think he is. I wasn't high on him coming into the league, but have grown to respect him as a steady, Ray Rice-esque back who can do everything. I think he is capable of doing what TB asked him to do, but, again, not every coach likes to do that, whether their backs can handle it or not.

I do think you're higher on him than me, and I doubt we'll be able to agree on that, based on past conversations. A lot of his 2013 production came from 2 games, and 3 busted plays in particular. You've seen the stats, so I won't go into them. I'm not telling you how to weigh that data, but I personally do give it some value; especially when it matches what I see when I watch him play. He's a very solid NFL back; not a Shady-level player.

As for him having one of the best rookie seasons ever - there's a guy in Washington who did the same, yet has never been treated as a top 3 dynasty back. And far as him having the best burst, power, elusiveness combination - I don't think he's close to Adrian Peterson, CJ Spiller, Jamaal Charles, or LeSean McCoy, off the top of my head.

 

[EBF]

I do think you're higher on him than me, and I doubt we'll be able to agree on that, based on past conversations. A lot of his 2013 production came from 2 games, and 3 busted plays in particular. You've seen the stats, so I won't go into them. I'm not telling you how to weigh that data, but I personally do give it some value; especially when it matches what I see when I watch him play. He's a very solid NFL back; not a Shady-level player.

As for him having one of the best rookie seasons ever - there's a guy in Washington who did the same, yet has never been treated as a top 3 dynasty back. And as for him having the best burst, power, elusiveness ratio - I don't think he's close to Adrian Peterson.

Morris and Martin are similar until you consider the receiving yards. Morris caught 11 passes for 77 yards last season while Martin caught 49 passes for 472 yards. Last season in PPR Martin averaged 19.6 ppg compared to 16.1 for Morris. That's the beginning and end of the debate with those two. If you want to diminish Martin's achievements you can say that he only got those yards because they fed him targets, but given how effective he was with his receptions it seems pretty clear that those opportunities were based on merit more than anything else. He was no more a product of his usage than Brandon Marshall, AJ Green, or Jimmy Graham. Good players command chances. Coaches want to get the ball to their best playmakers.

Again, it's a chicken and egg thing. If you want to give the player the minimum amount of credit, you can say that he only excels because of his opportunities. You can also say that someone like Morris would be just as good as Martin in space if given the chances. I don't really buy that. I think most players tend to get approximately the opportunities that they deserve. And that makes sense because football is a competitive and efficient enterprise where coaches are looking to make the most out of their assets. You wouldn't expect them to feed 200 targets to a horrible WR just like you wouldn't expect them to never throw the ball to a RB who would otherwise be a dominant force in the passing game.

Suggesting that Martin was in some way a product of the usage in Tampa is IMO a thinly-veiled and probably unconscious attempt to cling to an outdated evaluation of his talent. The idea that, "I didn't think he was that good, but he's playing extremely well, so it's probably the usage more than it's me being wrong." I think we're all guilty of that type of thought process at times. There are times when it might have some truth to it and some times when it's pure ego protection denial. Obviously with Martin I think he's a pretty legit player. Maybe not top 2-3 overall RB in the NFL legit, but plenty talented to be a Forte/Lynch (similarly versatile backs who have never at any point been considered ELITE in the same sense as a Peterson/Tomlinson).

As far as the "McCoy is just more talented" stuff, I think it goes back to what I said about people having a preference for smaller, flashier backs. People think of a guy like Spiller, Charles, or McCoy as being more talented than a guy like Gore, Martin, or Lynch because they have a flashier playing style. Smaller players rely more on quickness and speed, and those are probably the main things that catch the casual fan's eye. So almost inevitably any time you have a debate between a guy like McCoy and a guy like Martin, it is always going to be the consensus that the flashier player is more talented.

IMO power, strength, and the ability to handle a high workload are also components of talent and that's where Martin has an edge over those smaller guys. He might not have the pure speed or cutting ability that they have, but at the same time they're never going to have his stiff arm or balance after contact. You can even extend that to inferior power backs like Greene, BJGE, Moreno, and Ridley. The things that they're good at (strength, power, balance, volume) are very boring. Thus those players tend to get slagged as pure mediocrities a lot more than they probably should be by the FF public, who get more geeked about a 200 pound back carrying it 12 times for 70 yards than a plodder lugging it 24 times for 80 yards.

The reason why I like to point out the 20+ yard run stat is because it flies in the face of the perception of Martin as some kind of undynamic modest talent. The guy broke A LOT of big plays last year. Whereas Spiller or Chris Johnson might get their long runs with pure speed and explosiveness, Martin might achieve the same net result with his overall combination of power, agility, initial quickness, and vision. The "how" of it doesn't really matter. As long as he keeps stacking up big plays, you can't say he's not dynamic.

 

[Concept Coop]

Suggesting that Martin was in some way a product of the usage in Tampa is IMO a thinly-veiled and probably unconscious attempt to cling to an outdated evaluation of his talent. The idea that, "I didn't think he was that good, but he's playing extremely well, so it's probably the usage more than it's me being wrong."

As far as the "McCoy is just more talented" stuff, I think it goes back to what I said about people having a preference for smaller, flashier backs.

This. Or, we simply have different, genuine opinions. Whichever seems more reasonable and rational to you, I suppose.

 

[Concept Coop]

Career YPC:

Morris: 4.9

McCoy: 4.6

Martin: 4.3

Career YPR:

Martin: 8.8

McCoy: 7.7

Morris: 7.3

Career: WPA (win % added)

McCoy: 0.79

Morris: 0.40

Martin: -0.35 (would rank 63rd this year)

Success Rate:

McCoy: 46.0

Morris: 43.1

Martin: 37.6 (would rank 48th this year)

TD/Game:

McCoy: 0.73

Morris: 0.70

Martin: 0.59

 

[Concept Coop]

Doug Martin's numbers, minus one game, which featured 3 busted plays by the Oakland Raiders:

3.94 YPC and 9 career TDs in 22 career games.

 

[EBF]

Doug Martin's numbers, minus one game, which featured 3 busted plays by the Oakland Raiders:

3.94 YPC and 9 career TDs in 22 career games.

This is consistent with your tendency to give Martin as little credit as possible for his achievements while still maintaining some facade of objectivity. Not only do you remove the best game of his season (do that for every RB in the NFL and their season YPC will drop), but you also chalk up all 3 of his long TDs to "busted plays" rather than individual merit. Good players create busted plays. That's why teams pay big money to Calvin Johnson and Adrian Peterson. So they can bust the other team's defense. Martin's 2012 highlights are full of plays in which he creates yards out of nothing with his power and elusiveness. Those are not free yards. He earned them, just as he did on several of his plays against Oakland.

The guy had the most total yards of any rookie RB since Edgerrin James. Nobody has come onto the scene and made such a big immediate impact as a two-way RB in a long time. And this was not for an especially dominant offense. IIRC Tampa was without two of its key OL starters all season. If you want to compare him to NFL runners, let's see how his first two seasons stack up against Marshawn Lynch and Matt Forte. These 215+ pound RBs with good mobility and plus skills as receivers are gold in the NFL and FF. To me, Martin is clearly one of those guys. Much like Lynch in a lot of ways. Maybe even more explosive. He can run with power and do all the dirty work, but he can also make a filthy cut in the open field to spring himself for a long run. Usually it's one or the other when you're picking a RB (i.e. Shonn Greene vs. Andre Ellington), so to get a guy who embodies both of those qualities is pretty special.

I won't put the link on here, but you were all over one of the Doug Martin threads last September/October when he was struggling saying what an average back he was and that Mark Ingram was better. You had to come down off that stance once he started putting up numbers or else you would've taken flak for looking silly, but I think you're still attached to that assessment despite all he's done since then. You don't really like the guy and no matter what he does there's always going to be that little part of you that's still trying to protect your initial evaluation. I kind of get that. I mean, people would say the same thing about me and Forte a few years ago or Richardson (inversely) now. I get that you genuinely believe he's nothing special, but ultimately that doesn't mean you're still not wrong.

 

[Gottabesweet]

Would you trade Richardson potentially for Martin?

FBG dynasty ranks still high on him.

 

[Concept Coop]

This is consistent with your tendency to give Martin as little credit as possible for his achievements while still maintaining some facade of objectivity. Not only do you remove the best game of his season (do that for every RB in the NFL and their season YPC will drop), but you also chalk up all 3 of his long TDs to "busted plays" rather than individual merit. Good players create busted plays. That's why teams pay big money to Calvin Johnson and Adrian Peterson. So they can bust the other team's defense. Martin's 2012 highlights are full of plays in which he creates yards out of nothing with his power and elusiveness. Those are not free yards. He earned them, just as he did on several of his plays against Oakland.

The guy had the most total yards of any rookie RB since Edgerrin James. Nobody has come onto the scene and made such a big immediate impact as a two-way RB in a long time. And this was not for an especially dominant offense. IIRC Tampa was without two of its key OL starters all season. If you want to compare him to NFL runners, let's see how his first two seasons stack up against Marshawn Lynch and Matt Forte. These 215+ pound RBs with good mobility and plus skills as receivers are gold in the NFL and FF. To me, Martin is clearly one of those guys. Much like Lynch in a lot of ways. Maybe even more explosive. He can run with power and do all the dirty work, but he can also make a filthy cut in the open field to spring himself for a long run. Usually it's one or the other when you're picking a RB (i.e. Shonn Greene vs. Andre Ellington), so to get a guy who embodies both of those qualities is pretty special.

I won't put the link on here, but you were all over one of the Doug Martin threads last September/October when he was struggling saying what an average back he was and that Mark Ingram was better. You had to come down off that stance once he started putting up numbers or else you would've taken flak for looking silly, but I think you're still attached to that assessment despite all he's done since then. You don't really like the guy and no matter what he does there's always going to be that little part of you that's still trying to protect your initial evaluation. I kind of get that. I mean, people would say the same thing about me and Forte a few years ago. I get that you genuinely believe he's nothing special, but ultimately that doesn't mean you're still not wrong.

When you attempt to discredit the messenger, rather than counter the message, it's not a good sign. If you don't think Martin's numbers are tied to 3 carries in which he wasn't touched - quantify it. Lets see the numbers.

Mark Ingram? Your number 1 rookie - over Julio and AJ! - in 2011?! You're attempting to discredit me for liking him more than Martin, early in Martin's career, when he was putting up 3.5 YPC - fewer than Ingram's rookie season? All while you defend Trent Richardson's "respectable" 3.8 YPC (up from the actual 3.1, after you take out the plays that you don't want to count)?

Don't threaten; pull the thread up. I've got nothing to hide, and you were plenty willing to do it last month when talking about Thomas and Marshall, though I don't think that worked out as you had planned/hoped.

 

[Concept Coop]

Would you trade Richardson potentially for Martin?

FBG dynasty ranks still high on him.

I'd add a lot to Richardson to get Martin.

 

[lyon812]

Career YPC:

Morris: 4.9

McCoy: 4.6

Martin: 4.3

Career YPR:

Martin: 8.8

McCoy: 7.7

Morris: 7.3

Career: WPA (win % added)

McCoy: 0.79

Morris: 0.40

Martin: -0.35 (would rank 63rd this year)

Success Rate:

McCoy: 46.0

Morris: 43.1

Martin: 37.6 (would rank 48th this year)

TD/Game:

McCoy: 0.73

Morris: 0.70

Martin: 0.59

Doug Martin's numbers, minus one game, which featured 3 busted plays by the Oakland Raiders:

3.94 YPC and 9 career TDs in 22 career games.

I think McCoy's better than Martin, but if we're going to compare numbers, shouldn't we compare them at relatively equal points in their careers?

LeSean McCoy’s first 22 games, minus one "are the Giants even trying" 66-yard TD in garbage time in week 8 of his rookie year:

4.12 YPC and 9 career TDs.

[SIZE=10.5pt]After McCoy’s rookie year: 0.02 WPA, 41.7% success rate--lower than the career 0.79/46% rate you mention for him. [/SIZE]

It's hard to know how to weight things like "success rate", which are too easily isolated. Adrian Peterson was 40th last year at 40.1; Jamaal Charles 41st at 40% (tied with James Starks), Ray Rice was 49th at 38.7%. Looking at it from that perspective, Martin being 46th at 39% doesn't seem too terrible considering the company he keeps.

Martin's WPA is definitely low, but the website itself states that "WPA is what I call a narrative stat. Its purpose is not to be predictive of future play or to measure the true ability of a player or team. It simply measures the impact of each play toward winning and losing."

McCoy has obviously gone on to be great. Will Martin? We'll see. But if you're a believer, this is the time to try and buy low.

 

[EBF]

When you attempt to discredit the messenger, rather than counter the message, it's not a good sign. If you don't think Martin's numbers are tied to 3 carries in which he wasn't touched - quantify it. Lets see the numbers.

Mark Ingram? Your number 1 rookie - over Julio and AJ! - in 2011?! You're attempting to discredit me for liking him more than Martin, early in Martin's career, when he was putting up 3.5 YPC - fewer than Ingram's rookie season?

He wasn't touched because he made people miss. I've never been a fan of arguments like "well apart from that 60 yard TD he averaged 2.7 YPC on the day." It's a self-serving way of distorting the stats until they align with your own bias. The problem with saying things like "apart from that one game he averaged 3.9 YPC" is that you don't apply the same standard to every back in the league. If you took away the best 3-4 runs for every RB in the NFL, the standard of what we consider a "solid" YPC would shift significantly. Making that adjustment to one player without providing the greater context is just deceptive.

I was way off on Ingram initially, but I was also honest enough to recognize my mistake pretty quickly and act accordingly. He got his walking papers from my team after his rookie season based on what I saw/didn't see during his rookie year. Meanwhile there are pages and pages of you hating on Martin and giving him the absolute minimum amount of credit at every turn. Nothing has changed. You're looking at every data point in the most negative light possible. Pretty clear that you're still looking for confirmation on your original assessment.

Again, MAYBE you have it right. Certainly there have been some guys who came into the league, looked good, and then flamed out. I just happen to think this isn't one of those cases. Martin is a pretty studly athlete, was a first round pick, and had more total yards than any rookie RB in the past decade. Let's not overthink this.

 

[Concept Coop]

I think McCoy's better than Martin, but if we're going to compare numbers, shouldn't we compare them at relatively equal points in their careers? LeSean McCoy’s first 22 games, minus one "are the Giants even trying" 66-yard TD in garbage time in week 8 of his rookie year:

4.12 YPC and 9 career TDs.

[SIZE=10.5pt]After McCoy’s rookie year: 0.02 WPA, 41.7% success rate--lower than the career 0.79/46% rate you mention for him. [/SIZE]

It's hard to know how to weight things like "success rate", which are too easily isolated. Adrian Peterson was 40th last year at 40.1; Jamaal Charles 41st at 40% (tied with James Starks), Ray Rice was 49th at 38.7%. Looking at it from that perspective, Martin being 46th at 39% doesn't seem too terrible considering the company he keeps.

Martin's WPA is definitely low, but the website itself states that "WPA is what I call a narrative stat. Its purpose is not to be predictive of future play or to measure the true ability of a player or team. It simply measures the impact of each play toward winning and losing."

My stance was never that McCoy, 22 games in, was a better player than Doug Martin. McCoy wasn't as NFL ready as Doug Martin - he had some bad habits to shake - but I stand by my stance that he's a better NFL player, and a more unique talent.

And I think you're off on your post rookie season WPA/SR.

As for your point, re: the stats - sure, they need context. Most of the guys who score highly on SR are change of pace backs, whose numbers aren't hindered by short yardage carries. Perhaps that makes Martin's number look more respectable, but it also adds credibility to McCoy's.

 

[Concept Coop]

He wasn't touched because he made people miss. I've never been a fan of arguments like "well apart from that 60 yard TD he averaged 2.7 YPC on the day." It's a self-serving way of distorting the stats until they align with your own bias. The problem with saying things like "apart from that one game he averaged 3.9 YPC" is that you don't apply the same standard to every back in the league. If you took away the best 3-4 runs for every RB in the NFL, the standard of what we consider a "solid" YPC would shift significantly. Making that adjustment to one player without providing the greater context is just deceptive.

Isolating anomalies is basic math practice. We're talking about 3 of 446 carries. If you think other backs benefit equally from their top (&gt1% of carries - it should be pretty easy for you to display.

It is not my intention to discredit Martin, outside of explaining my opinion, which isn't being accepted as genuine, and wasn't prior to me providing the stats you're now questioning. I don't think he's as good as you do. I know that's hard for you, but that's all it is.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

As a Doug Martin dynasty owner, I have the same worries that CC does. It's the reason I've been rooting for the Bucs for the last two years, hoping they'd keep Schiano around.

In addition to his talent, there are two other things that made Doug Martin a top 3 dynasty back.

1) Greg Schiano is one of the few guys left who believes in giving a single RB a ton of work

2) Doug Martin was Greg Schiano's hand-picked choice for the role that he's always used

Remember, a lot of Doug Martin's post-draft value in the first place was centered around people hoping that Schiano would give Martin the workload that he gave to Rice at Rutgers, which is exactly what happened. There's no guarantee that a new regime will believe in point #2 above. In fact, given the current NFL landscape, it's unlikely. On top of that, they'll have no loyalty to Martin as he's not their hand picked guy like he was for Schiano.

EBF, to your point that he's one of those guys that's just too talented not to get the workload, we just saw a workhorse guy that, coming into the year, you thought of as even more talented than Martin (Trent Richardson) completely tossed to the curb by one new regime (Cleveland) and relegated to 50/50 timeshare duty by another (Indy). It's not like it's even remotely unprecedented for a new regime to have a completely different view on a player or how to use them

Further, in the list of guys that you bring up that are too talented to share time (whom Martin may or may not be in the same tier as from a talent standpoint), many of those guys did share time with other regimes themselves. Ray Rice was a workhorse only when he, like Martin, was with one of the few guys that really believes in giving one guy the whole workload. Since Cam Cameron left town, "Too Talented" Ray Rice's workload has been reduced significantly.

Even Jamaal Charles, who has always had insane per touch efficiency numbers, found himself stuck in a timeshare with the wrong regime, even when he was out performing the other half of that timeshare by insane metrics. Something that, by the way, Doug Martin has not done. "Too Average" Mike James has actually out performed Martin this year in both the running and receiving game. Small sample size, no doubt, but there is no guarantee that a new regime won't decide to make James the Bernard Pierce to Doug Martin's Ray Rice.

 

[EBF]

Further, in the list of guys that you bring up that are too talented to share time (whom Martin may or may not be in the same tier as from a talent standpoint), many of those guys did share time with other regimes themselves. Ray Rice was a workhorse only when he, like Martin, was with one of the few guys that really believes in giving one guy the whole workload. Since Cam Cameron left town, "Too Talented" Ray Rice's workload has been reduced significantly.

Even Jamaal Charles, who has always had insane per touch efficiency numbers, found himself stuck in a timeshare with the wrong regime, even when he was out performing the other half of that timeshare by insane metrics. Something that, by the way, Doug Martin has not done. "Too Average" Mike James has actually out performed Martin this year in both the running and receiving game. Small sample size, no doubt, but there is no guarantee that a new regime won't decide to make James the Bernard Pierce to Doug Martin's Ray Rice.

He's not going to finish RB2 every season. That's pretty obvious. Nobody's that consistent. There are always bumps in the road.

What I'm saying is that his talent/versatility is so strong that he's always going to be squarely in the FF picture.

Charles, Rice, Lynch, Gore, Forte, etc haven't been right at the very top every single season, but on the whole you would say that their careers would've made them clear top 5-10 FF RBs over the duration of their prime. That's all I'm really saying about Martin. He's going to be there right in the mix every year. Maybe he'll have individual down seasons, but the net career value (which is the main concern in dynasty) is going to be great.

As far as James goes, I actually just shopped him last night in one of the leagues where I own Martin and sold him for a late-ish devy pick (#10-14 most likely). I felt comfortable making that move because I don't think he's on Martin's level. To me, he's potentially a solid back, but far more replaceable due to his lack of rare qualities. Basically a RB2 type like BJGE, Gerhart, or Greene compared to a true franchise back in Martin. He's not as dynamic as a runner, but where he really suffers is that he doesn't have the same agility/explosiveness in space. He's basically a "get what's blocked" type of player whereas Martin can create.

 

[lyon812]

I think McCoy's better than Martin, but if we're going to compare numbers, shouldn't we compare them at relatively equal points in their careers? LeSean McCoy’s first 22 games, minus one "are the Giants even trying" 66-yard TD in garbage time in week 8 of his rookie year:

4.12 YPC and 9 career TDs.

[SIZE=10.5pt]After McCoy’s rookie year: 0.02 WPA, 41.7% success rate--lower than the career 0.79/46% rate you mention for him. [/SIZE]

It's hard to know how to weight things like "success rate", which are too easily isolated. Adrian Peterson was 40th last year at 40.1; Jamaal Charles 41st at 40% (tied with James Starks), Ray Rice was 49th at 38.7%. Looking at it from that perspective, Martin being 46th at 39% doesn't seem too terrible considering the company he keeps.

Martin's WPA is definitely low, but the website itself states that "WPA is what I call a narrative stat. Its purpose is not to be predictive of future play or to measure the true ability of a player or team. It simply measures the impact of each play toward winning and losing."

And I think you're off on your post rookie season WPA/SR.

Allow me to rephrase, as I realize that I might have worded that confusingly:

After McCoy's rookie year, he had a 0.02 WPA and 41.7% success rate.

Comparing McCoy's career stats to Martin's rookie season is where I felt the analysis is flawed.

 

[EBF]

It is not my intention to discredit Martin, outside of explaining my opinion, which isn't being accepted as genuine, and wasn't prior to me providing the stats you're now questioning. I don't think he's as good as you do. I know that's hard for you, but that's all it is.

I don't think your take isn't genuine. I just think it's wrong. I think you've been wrong on Martin every step of the way.

I think you made an initial assessment and have basically anchored to that opinion regardless of what he's done. After every successive big game in his 2012 season you were throwing cold water on the excitement and attributing his success to soft defenses and variance. Obviously you haven't adjusted much since then. It's still "three good runs against the Raiders," "busted defenses," and basically every excuse besides the obvious explanation: damn, this guy is pretty good.

Everyone on here is guilty of that to some extent. It's pretty natural for people to show huge confirmation bias when they're evaluating the early returns on a young player. If they hated him, they're going to keep hating him no matter how good he looks. If they liked him, they're going to keep finding excuses no matter how grim things appear. I'm just as guilty of it with my Richardson stance. I'm not really attacking you on personal level so much as I'm disagreeing with your take (just like I did in that 2012 thread). Martin is a damn good RB and a great option if you need a long term RB1 for the next 3-5 years.

I said my piece earlier. I think he's a player whose talent has been easy to underrate because his playing style isn't that flashy. People love speed and explosiveness. When you have a guy who's more of a solid do-everything speed/power hybrid, it's easier to overlook his qualities. As good as guys like Lynch, Rice, and Forte have been in FF for the past several years, they never generate the same excitement as a flashy McCoy/Spiller/CJ2K. I think Martin is a similar type of back and much like those guys he's probably destined to be a great producer without ever being talked about as some kind of freak talent.

 

[lyon812]

Forte is something of a poster child for people saying "he'll be replaced in a couple of years by a more talented back."

 

[Concept Coop]

Allow me to rephrase, as I realize that I might have worded that confusingly:

After McCoy's rookie year, he had a 0.02 WPA and 41.7% success rate.

Comparing McCoy's career stats to Martin's rookie season is where I felt the analysis is flawed.

That makes sense, now that I read it again. It was not my intention to compare McCoy's first 22 games to Martin's.

 

[Concept Coop]

It is not my intention to discredit Martin, outside of explaining my opinion, which isn't being accepted as genuine, and wasn't prior to me providing the stats you're now questioning. I don't think he's as good as you do. I know that's hard for you, but that's all it is.

I don't think your take isn't genuine. I just think it's wrong. I think you've been wrong on Martin every step of the way.

That's as far as it needs to go. The amateur psych stuff isn't productive.

And, for the record, he is a good RB, IMO. Me saying that he's no McCoy doesn't contradict that.

 

[ctt8410]

So where are you guys slotting Lacy in your RB rankings?

I'm not updating again until next Monday/Tuesday, but it's looking likely Lacy will be in my top 10 once I do.

Do you mind if I ask why you're so low on Alshon Jeffery (WR32)? He has measurables and pedigree and seems to be in the midst of a 2nd year breakout with a stable (if not particularly QB rich) franchise and yet he falls behind low-upside guys like Amendola and Shorts.

Well, for starters, I don't view either Amendola or Shorts as anything close to "low-upside" guys in PPR leagues. Shorts' numbers after taking over as a starter last year were insane- something like a 1400 yard pace, IIRC. If not for the concussion worries, Shorts would be higher, still. As for Amendola... Julian Edelman is currently WR20 in PPR leagues. JULIAN EDELMAN. Edelman is a bare shadow of Amendola. If Amendola can stay healthy (yeah, yeah, I know- big if), he could easily put up top-12 numbers as the slot receiver in the Patriots' offense. If anything, I would characterize Amendola and Shorts as just the opposite of "low-upside"; I'd call them huge high-risk, high-reward plays.

To some extent, there's a bit of a numbers crunch at receiver. There are more than 10 guys I'd love to fit into my 20-29 range right now, and some of them get squeezed out. Why Alshon? Because I try to make a point of downgrading players who have had a huge game below where my gut reaction would have me put them. Even at the half-season mark, one huge game can have a huge impact on total numbers when there hasn't been enough of a chance for regression to do its work yet. Intuitively, I see an exciting young prospect like Alshon have a monster game and my first instinct is to just go nuts and shoot them up the board. I find that slightly discounting guys with a huge game on their resume often prevents me from overreacting and doing something that I'll regret later.

I guess we disagree on what constitutes high upside. Shorts is #2 in the NFL in targets this year and he's WR19 in ppr scoring. This is his upside.

Amendola's a 28-year old who can't stay healthy and whose best season is 85/689/3 and WR30 in ppr. He's not Edelman, but he's also not Welker.

It's perfectly within reason to cast a skeptical eye towards Jeffery based on the small sample size, but I don't see how he's a lower ceiling guy than those 2 when he's shown the ability to put up a 37-pointer within the first 16 games of his career.

I never said that Alshon Jeffery was lower-upside than the other two. I never said anything at all about his upside. You asked me how I could rank Jeffery behind two low-upside guys, and I merely replied that I didn't.

As for Shorts... No WR is at his upside when his QBs are Chad Henne/Blaine Gabbert and he's playing in the worst offense in the league by a massive margin. Might as well say that Larry Fitzgerald was at his upside with the Kolb/Skelton/Hall/Hoyer/Barf nonsense because he got a ton of targets. Or say that Andre Johnson reached his upside with David Carr when he was throwing the ball a ton. Targets do not determine upside entirely on their own. And, as has been mentioned, I don't understand how Shorts' upside could be lower than his actual performance last season, where he was a top-10 fantasy WR upon earning the starting job.

Danny Amendola might not be Welker (I personally think he can do a pretty fair imitation, if his body holds up), but I think a quality slot receiver in New England's offense is a 110-120 catch kind of guy. That's pretty huge upside in PPR leagues, even if it only nets him 1200 yards and 6 TDs.

I think you're using selective endpoints with Shorts and overrating situation with Amendola, but fair enough. My original position was only that Jeffery is underrated and the Shorts/Amendola low upside conversation was just a corollary. Reasonable people can agree to disagree.

 

[humpback]

Obviously a lot of unknowns, but how far does Finley fall?

 

[Concept Coop]

Obviously a lot of unknowns, but how far does Finley fall?

I can't put a number on it, especially as I haven't had looked into an injury update in a while. That said, I think he's a solid buy, assuming he can come back and play next year. He seems to have taken steps, and kept his mouth shut. Hopefully that's enough for GB to bring him back. It doens't look like his replacement is on the roster, at least.

I wasn't very high on him going into the season. I was worried that Cobb would really eat into his numbers. With Jordy back, and Jones starting opposite him, they needed to adjust the game plan to get Cobb the targets he deserves. I thought one of Cobb/Finley would suffer. I was wrong. They ran more 3 WR sets, and got Finley on the outside more. I think both guys, as long as they are in this offense, are going to get plenty of high-end targets.

If he re-signed today, and was expected to be 100% next season, I'd likely take him in the TE 6-7 range. After Gronk, Graham, Reed, Thomas, and Cameron; next to Witten and Eifert; before Davis.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Obviously a lot of unknowns, but how far does Finley fall?

He's pretty meh IMO. He's always been over-rated as a talent and has consistently disappointed (for the most part) despite a spectacular situation. Now add two major question marks with the injury and a potential massive situation downgrade. Plus he's a guy who still has a decently large group of believers that think he's some kind of beastly talent and are willing to pay way above what his actual production would dictate, so he's pretty unlikely to be a real buy low. No thanks.