PatsWillWin
Footballguy
Any thoughts on Blackmon vs. Nicks?
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Dynasty Rankings (12 Viewers)
- Thread starter Fear & Loathing
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Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
Did I miss Blackmon getting arrested? Far as I know, he's just failed some NFL drug tests -- not that it really matters in the NFL's eyes.
Nicks looks done to me personally, and has for two years. I don't see leaving NY as a likely upgrade for him, either.
Louche
Footballguy
The offensive rankings were updated on DLF today: http://dynastyleaguefootball.com/rankings/qb-rankings/
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
It was a poor attempt at Goodell humor
Without looking it up i have no idea really what Blackmon did this year if anything, how many games he missed, etc. i don't remember hearing his name much at all. Nicks is a guy whose value fell as quickly as can happen. Maybe Blackmon has more upside if he gets his shiite together so i guess i'd prefer him.
Louche
Footballguy
His first two games back from suspension were in Josh Gordon territory; 326 yards over two games on 19 catches for 1 TD. He then appeared on the injury list as probable with a hamstring pull, had two games averaging 5 catches / 45 yards per game, and then got suspended again. If, and this is a big if, he is reinstated and avoids further trouble he is firmly in the WR1/2 range. I took the gambling opportunity and chased him after he was suspended, ending up trading away Terrance Williams for him (while Williams still had a 85%+ catch rate). Nicks played like a WR5 this season but seems to generally be considered a WR3 in dynasty at this point.
PatsWillWin
Footballguy
Blackmon and Nicks, to me, represent an interesting contrast of risk/reward proposals. I think Blackmon has higher upside, fewer questions about his ability, but significantly more risk due to his addiction/abuse/whatever issues. I don't even know if he's going to be playing next year, or when.
Nicks, on the other hand, is "safer" in that he'll be playing next year, but as greater questions about if he's still the same guy, or if he's just having his career (or at least the peak of his career) cut short due to the ongoing injuries. To add a little twist into it, he's also a FA and likely to go somewhere else, which further expands his range of up/down side.
Just thought it was an interesting comparison.
Nicks, on the other hand, is "safer" in that he'll be playing next year, but as greater questions about if he's still the same guy, or if he's just having his career (or at least the peak of his career) cut short due to the ongoing injuries. To add a little twist into it, he's also a FA and likely to go somewhere else, which further expands his range of up/down side.
Just thought it was an interesting comparison.
EBF
Footballguy
Nicks hasn't been an impact player for two years now and while he theoretically has the potential to hit a high level again, I'm inclined to look at him as more of a true mediocrity moving forward. Blackmon is a high ppg player when he's in the lineup. I'd much rather have that than a mediocrity who's more likely to be on the field. At this point I'd probably rather have a 25% chance at 17 ppg than a 100% chance at 12 ppg.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
I would rather have Blackmon but I think the extreme negativity on Nicks just highlights how much of a buy he is. Yeah, he's got problems, but some guy with 10 years of problems just put up 15 ppg at age 33.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
It will be interesting to see what the market holds for Nicks. The film on him isn't good for 2 years now. Is there another team out there willing to hand him a starting spot and 100+ targets? Even if he does land a starting gig, will the QB be better at getting the ball to his WRs than Eli? Alex Smith couldn't make Dwayne Bowe viable this year, and KC is one of the teams that could use a WR. What if its the Jets, Browns or Raiders?
Ron_Mexico
I Love Doggies
I agree with this. I think buying low on Blackmon is the way to go right now. I have him far ahead of Nicks based on talent alone.
I'm betting his head will be straight by opening day 2014.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Let me know if you find what you're looking for; I'd love to get my hands on the tables too. When I was looking into it, I found a number of sites where you could contract the job out, but it can get pricey. I'm sure the data is out there in a functional format somewhere, but gave up the search.
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thriftyrocker
Footballguy
It should be pretty straightforward to set this up. You can create SQL using Excel as an intermediary. For example, copy a HTML table into Excel, then save as CSV (comma separated text file), then import CSV into SQL using myphpadmin (which pretty much any webhost will provide). Or a little Perl programming if you need to mine multiple pages worth of HTML tables to make the full data set, and just output CSV from Perl. I've done this before but not with NFL stats.
Just checked and PFR has an Excel of data up to 2008 (more recent is proprietary unless you mine it).
Just checked and PFR has an Excel of data up to 2008 (more recent is proprietary unless you mine it).
MattFancy
Footballguy
They're really high on Allen/Hopkins/Patterson going forward. I like them, but I think they have them a little higher than I would.
JFS171
Footballguy
Here's the only issue with this. I don't doubt Blackmon's talent, and the situation is likely to improve in 2014 due to a new QB being brough to town (I don't think anyone expects the Jags to go to war with Henne/Gabbert again). But we're in unchartered territory with Blackmon and the NFL. Who knows how Goodell handles this? If I recall, wasn't the suspension "indefinite" with a chance to apply for reinstatement in the future?Ron_Mexico said:
It's certainly possible that Blackmon has received the wake-up call loud and clear, but when does he actually get re-instated and allowed back on the field? That's a huge question mark, assuming the first issue (him getting his head on straight) is a go, which is also not a lock. Does anyone have any clarity on when he will potentially be re-instated?
With Nicks, he's certainly put up some ugly tape the past couple of seasons, and drew the ire of Coughlin after the season saying there were times Nicks didn't attack the ball like he had in the past. Part of it was likely due to conditioning as he missed a good chunk of training camp rehabbing yet another injury. I'd suspect part of it was also due to him trying to protect himself on a team headed nowhere. We've seen this before -- DeSean Jackson comes to mind specifically. I wouldn't completely write off Nicks given his age and production in the past. The injuries are concerning, sure. And perhaps he'll never be the same. Or perhaps he goes out and gets an incentive-laden deal and breaks out again, a la Jackson.
jeter23
Footballguy
Hey guys, I updated the dynasty ADP for January if you want to check it out. Quite a few surprises there... http://dynastyleaguefootball.com/rankings/adp-january/
Concept Coop
Footballguy
True. By functional, I mean maneagable. In order to do anything more than the FBG tools, it would take a lot of manual work - pulling in individual game logs, historic drafts, college stats, etc.
Gawain
Footballguy
Site puts a very heavy premium on WR though. He currently checks in at WR31. That's about 20 spots lower than he peaked after coming back from suspension.
EBF
Footballguy
I have him in a few leagues and many of the offers people are sending right now treat him like he's a throw-in or a scrub.
Even despite his issues he can score top 10 ppg when in the lineup, so for me any fair price has to account for that.
EBF
Footballguy
Very interesting stuff. DT continues to be ranked firmly behind Dez and Green even though he has outscored them over the past two seasons combined. I still think there's some reluctance to give him full credit for his numbers because of the Manning factor, but IMO you can make a case that he's simply a better player than the other two. I'd certainly be happy to get him after Charles in a startup.
Lacy and Bell ADP makes me
. Courting disaster to take them in the top 10-12. Not a lot of obvious great RB options out there though.It looks like the long slide is finally starting for Peterson. He quietly had a much more human year in 2013 and you've got to wonder what's left in the tank.
I like the idea of getting Justin Hunter 2-4 rounds later than Patterson and Hopkins. He has his issues, but if he stays healthy I think there's a pretty huge ceiling.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
I think you're overstating it. It's not a lot of work. It's a homework assignment. Maybe it's not worth it if you don't have any definite ideas on what you're going to do with it. But all the data is out there.
Play by play stats in CSV: http://www.advancednflstats.com/2010/04/play-by-play-data.html
CFB stats in CSV: http://www.cfbstats.com/blog/college-football-data/
Combine data in one big table: http://nflcombineresults.com/nflcombinedata.php
Once you had the tables you could do anything you want. The manual work is importing the tables. Which is straightforward.
Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
Blackmon WR19. Decker WR25.
I've only got Decker in one league, but couldn't imagine trading him for Blackmon, nor about 1/3 of the guys ahead of him. He's finished WR8, WR9 overall the last 2 seasons. I understand the guys a UFA, but it's not like every possible destination he might land would be awful. That's essentially what placing him at WR25 is. A worst case scenario for his landing spot. He might actually get more targets in Detroit, Seattle, Carolina or San Diego.
Pretty confident if his skin was a different color, he'd be in the top 12.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Thanks for this. Certainly not much work if the data has already been compiled and formatted. My comments were about compiling it yourself, as I didn't know these files were out there. I'm going to play around with these when I get some time.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Really? I think it's primarily that Decker seems like a guy who has seen the benefit of Manning throwing the ball to him. Without Manning as his QB, I have limited confidence that Decker would be even in the WR 13-24 range. Thus, seeing him at WR 25 seems about right to me.
Contrast that with Blackmon. IF he plays - which is clearly a big if - the dude is almost a guaranteed WR1. He has been productive on a terrible team, with at times abysmal QB play. For him the concern is whether or not he gets it together.....and gets reinstated.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
I think there are other + spots. Indy would be pretty sweet and remove the weekly variability. What if Philly or Det made a play for him as a WR2.Yeah, Denver is a juggernaut short term, but longer term there are spots that are even better. Even if you only see him as a dependable starting NFL WR there are plug and play offenses that will be willing to plug him in and play him if Denver doesn't devote the money. What landing spots are we scared of other than Oakland?
Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
There's no doubt Decker benefits from having Manning throwing him the ball. The same can be said for every good WR that has a good QB. Which is why I don't think people should be so scared of him leaving Denver. There's plenty of QBs in the league that Decker would perform well with.
Without the character questions, I'd rather have Blackmon. However, I've read about the NFL "program" on drugs. Blackmon has to do more than get his head on straight going forward. He can't slip up even once without even greater consequences coming his way.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
His production has been very close to Thomas'. Are you worried about Thomas post-Manning?
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
Anywhere with a terrible QB where he faces a steady diet of double teams as a team's #1 would be a major negative, IMO. I don't see Decker as a situation-proof talent, personally. He's in the Greg Jennings class of good solid starters as an NFL WR. If he has to fight WR1 coverage with a crappy QB his numbers will suffer IMO.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
WR1 coverage is changing. Josh Gordon made a comment about how he was hoping to eventually be double teamed, and that he'd take it as a compliment. Josh Gordon, one of only two weapons on a poor offensive team, wasn't double teamed much this year. This is only my theory, but I think it's getting harder to double team a single player for long stretches.
Sure, there are some hell holes that would suck his value, but just as likely to end up in another good situation, in my opinion.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Decker's sophomore season, he had 20 catches for 270 yards and 4 TDs in his first four games with Orton. Tebow took over, and Decker ended up with 24 for 332 yards and 4 TDs in his final five games. It's hard to say that he would have continued on pace for 80 catches, 1080 yards and 16 TDs with a full season of Orton, but he had 85/1064/13 in his first full season with Manning and 87/1288/11 this year.
I acquired him in dynasty this year because I think that he has long term stud potential. Being third or fourth fiddle in the Broncos offense may have hurt him almost as much as playing with Manning helped him. If he ends up in a great situation next year, I think he's great huge trade value if you want to flip him, and if he ends up in a plus situation, I think he can be a top 15 WR for a long time. He's got 32 TDs in three years, he's got size, and he's been part of an offense that coordinators everywhere are trying to copy. Strong buy.
I acquired him in dynasty this year because I think that he has long term stud potential. Being third or fourth fiddle in the Broncos offense may have hurt him almost as much as playing with Manning helped him. If he ends up in a great situation next year, I think he's great huge trade value if you want to flip him, and if he ends up in a plus situation, I think he can be a top 15 WR for a long time. He's got 32 TDs in three years, he's got size, and he's been part of an offense that coordinators everywhere are trying to copy. Strong buy.
The Man With No Name
Footballguy
Cleveland could make a play for him. He does fit their criteria and they have boatloads of salary cap space.
Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
I really hadn't thought about that at all. Thomas is an UFA after the 2014 season. IMO Denver is likely to let Decker walk (somebody is going to give Decker 10 million annually), and try to resign Demaryius long term as soon as possible. That will be great for Thomas until Manning retires. Then what? Will he be a great WR stuck without a QB like Larry Fitzgerald or Steve Smith were? It's not really that unlikely of scenario that Decker is a better fantasy player than DT over the next handful of years.
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
Don't get me wrong -- if he's valued at WR25 I'm a likely buyer, too. I'm just saying that leaving Denver make him a gamble. Look at Jennings, Wallace, etc. If he does land in Oakland, Jacksonville, St. Louis, or similar he might be a 900 / 5 guy. In Detroit, Dallas, etc. he probably picks up right where he left off.
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
I view Thomas as one of the handful of most physically gifted WRs in the NFL, so no, I'm not. He put up numbers down the stretch with Tim freaking Tebow.
Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
Many of us thought Larry Fitzgerald was situation proof too. Then he wasn't. It could happen to DT post Manning too.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
I love Fitzgerald. He's technically proficient to the max. But he's not the physical talent DT is. All you have to do is get the ball in his hands, and he'll do the rest. Fitzgerald has always been more reliant on the ball actually getting into his catch radius downfield first--DT can turn a screen into a TD from anywhere on the field. I think DT is also underrated as a deep threat because Manning doesn't have much of a deep ball right now--not that he needs it. But give him 150 targets a year from Osweiler after Manning is gone, and I still think he's top-5. There are definite aspects of Manning's robot football brain that actually HURT DT, if you ask me. He's the type of talent that deserves the chance to beat his man 1-on-1 at every opportunity, allowing him to take over games completely--but Manning is so good at picking apart a defense that it's not really necessary.
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Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
Of course it could. But I think DT is as close to bulletproof as anyone this side of Calvin Johnson, so I see him as safer than Decker, Julius, etc.Anyone would have struggled in the "perfect storm" of crap that Fitzgerald has dealt with in AZ, so if the post-Manning Broncos roll out the league's worst QBs behind the league's worst OL, then yes, Thomas will fall off a bunch. But it's more likely that he has mediocre QBing and a still solid line, so IMO he'll likely be fine. Elway and Fox know what they're doing. Denver seems pretty unlikely to completely crater after Manning retires.
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Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
I'm not trying to rail on DT here. He's a fantastic player, and a special talent. I've just watched this happen to Steve Smith in his post Superbowl years, and now Larry Fitzgerald in his post Superbowl years. I also read lots of posts in this very thread about how Fitzgerald was fantastic no matter the QB. Heck, even Calvin had an off year in his 3rd year due in part to QB play.
EBF
Footballguy
Isn't that what AJ Green is right now? And everyone seems to view him as a lock moving forward.
A similar discussion came up last year. Thomas benefits from Manning in the sense that he gets high quality targets, but he suffers in the sense that he doesn't get that many targets. He only finished 13th in the NFL this year in looks. He had fewer targets, but more yards than Green, Jeffery, Andre, Dez, Marshall, and VJax. Combine the last two years and he's probably the reigning king of WR efficiency stats. High conversion rate and lots of yards.
I think what will happen when Manning/Decker/Welker are gone is that his efficiency will drop some, but he'll get more targets. Compare him to AJ Green over the past two seasons and you'll see that he's been doing a lot more with a lot fewer looks.
Green - 344 targets, 2776 yards
Thomas - 284 targets, 2864 yards
DT hasn't come close to hitting his target ceiling yet. Over the last two seasons his volume of opportunities lags well behind Calvin, VJax, Andre, Marshall, and Green. I think he's as good as most of those guys and if his team is ever in a pinch without the luxury of spreading the ball around, I think you'll see him assume more of a target hog role. Right now they don't really force him the ball.
He remains a somewhat underappreciated talent IMO, as I think he's probably a better NFL receiver than Dez or Green, and yet he doesn't seem to get quite the same benefit of the doubt as a bulletproof dynasty asset since people attribute part of his success to Manning.
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
As a guy that's owned Fitz and Steve Smith through the "rough years" I'd say AJ Green is in a relatively fantastic situation. Dalton may not be a fantastic NFL QB, especially in the playoffs, but he's shown he can consistently feed Green and throw for 4000+ yards and +/- 30 TDs. The Bengals aren't likely to move on from Dalton unless they get something even better. I think that's the reason why most of us are putting AJ Green ahead of DT.
The reality is that we don't know what will happen at QB for the Broncos when Manning is done. It could be the next Blaine Gabbert, or the next Russell Wilson. We just don't know. As I said, I've owned Steve Smith and Fitz, who in the prime of their careers had their numbers absolutely fizzle because of incompetence at QB. Even if the next QB isn't Gabbertesque, his number could drop from 1400/14 to 1100/6 pretty easily.
Having said that, I've got DT at the bottom end of my top 5.
EBF
Footballguy
That seems to be the common belief and I'm not totally sure what it's based on. For my money he's probably the more difficult overall matchup. Certainly a better height/weight/speed athlete than Green and probably has a good case for trumping Dez in that regard as well. One thing about DT is that he has a tendency to make things look easy, so even his long TDs and home run plays don't really seem that impressive whereas the acrobatics of Green and Bryant make more of an impression.
Obviously we're talking about a razor thin margin and it's hard for someone who's a unanimous top 10 dynasty player to be underrated, but it seems to me that DT has always had to accomplish a little more than those other two to receive the same appreciation.
As far as Green goes, I think he's a very good player and that Dalton's inadequacies are part of the reason for his poor efficiency stats, but I don't think the fact that he has required huge amounts of targets to match the output of Dez/DT has received enough play. I think he's somewhat overrated in the sense that many view him as a strong #1 in the Julio/Dez/DT group when in reality he might be the least talented of the group.
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
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