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Dynasty Rankings (5 Viewers)
- Thread starter Fear & Loathing
- Start date
karmarooster
Footballguy
A.Brown is tempting to include in the top 8-12, and he's only 25, but I can point to some arguments as to why he should not be so highly rated:
-He's never scored many TDs, only 8 this year on 110 catches and 1500 yards, and only 7 TDs on his previous 135 catches over the two years prior. So, not much of a TD machine, and probably never will be.
-He probably saw a career high this past year in terms of targets, receptions, and yards, in part because they could only throw to Brown, Heath Miller, or Sanders this year. The steelers are pretty barren when it comes to offensive weapons so they will likely try to add some WRs/TEs.
Then again, he's very competent at many things, and has generally been on an upward trend for the last 3 years.
-He's never scored many TDs, only 8 this year on 110 catches and 1500 yards, and only 7 TDs on his previous 135 catches over the two years prior. So, not much of a TD machine, and probably never will be.
-He probably saw a career high this past year in terms of targets, receptions, and yards, in part because they could only throw to Brown, Heath Miller, or Sanders this year. The steelers are pretty barren when it comes to offensive weapons so they will likely try to add some WRs/TEs.
Then again, he's very competent at many things, and has generally been on an upward trend for the last 3 years.
Can't speak for Wess, but that's because I believed Roger Goodell when he huffed and puffed and blustered about cleaning up the league. I thought the Pacman suspension was a shot across the bow, and not just one isolated event meant to provide Goodell some cover when people ask later whatever became of his tough rhetoric. I thought at the time that Marshall would be unable to keep his name out of the news, and he was. I also thought at the time that Marshall's name coming up in the news would result in missed time, and it hasn't. Ever since Goodell blew his load on bountygate and got slapped back down for overreaching, he's been as cuddly as a kitten.
We could switch the conversation to the Washington/Denver superbowl if you'd rather. Seems to me that would be equally apropos.karmarooster said:
I've got him at 10. I see the arguments for having him lower. I think he's below-average in the redzone and will never be a big TD guy. In PPR, though, I see him as a perennial 90-100 catch guy, and that'll cover up for a lot of ills.
EBF
Footballguy
Where was this love for Antonio Brown after the 2012 season? It is always easy to hype a guy coming off a career year. I think Brown is a good player, but my guess is that the "real" Brown is somewhere in the middle between the 2012 Brown and the 2013 Brown. I agree that the all-around suckiness of Pittsburgh's other receiving options played a role in allowing him to rack up massive target numbers. Ben is pretty good at sustaining WR production, but he has never leaned on any one receiver as heavily as he did Brown in 2013. Testament to Brown's ability, but also an indictment of the other guys on the roster. Sanders is a non-entity and Wheaton did nothing as a rookie. I like Brown and regret not making more effort to buy low after last season, but I think he's closer to DeSean Jackson than Steve Smith. More of a WR2 for a FF than a player that I'd want leading my group.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
It would be foolish not to adjust our projections for Brown after this season. At the very least, he reestablished his ceiling and showed that he can produce WR1 numbers acting as, and receiving the attention of, an NFL WR1. He's paid like one, the Steelers think he's one, and I don't see them searching for another anytime soon.
EBF
Footballguy
Sidney Rice is paid like a WR1 too. I can buy the ankle excuse because Brown was on pace for about 1150 yards last season before he got hurt. He was also getting a lot of targets, as he did this season. All of that combined with his solid 2011 season points towards solid numbers being the "normal" state of affairs for him.
I just think it's kind of funny how a guy can go from being someone you can't give away (because no one wants him) to being someone you can't trade (because he's too good) in one year. Like Crabtree after the 2012 season. Where were all of these fans a year ago? He is the same guy today that he was in 2011 and 2012. Just coming off a bigger season. That's partially due to health, but also mainly due to volume. He was 4th in the NFL in targets this year.
He's not going anywhere, but there will likely be subtraction by addition if Pitt's complementary options improve (which they should because right now they're awful). If you go back and look at what Ward/Holmes/Wallace did under Ben, they generally hovered around the 110-130 target mark. In fact, none of them ever topped 150 targets in a single season. All I'm saying is that I think Brown is more likely to slide back down to that level than maintain an average near 165 (his 2013 total). I also don't think he's going to average 8 TDs per season moving forward, as he's a small target with suspect red zone ability. Add it up and I think WR15 is a more reasonable expectation for him in a typical season than WR5.
There is a host of similar players in the league right now such as Harvin, Cobb, Hilton, and DeSean. Some are a little stronger and quicker than the others. Others are a little faster. They're all quality players, but none of them are prototypical #1 NFL receivers and I'd have a tough time drafting any of them at top 10 WR prices. Something in the WR2 range makes a lot of sense for most of them.
I just think it's kind of funny how a guy can go from being someone you can't give away (because no one wants him) to being someone you can't trade (because he's too good) in one year. Like Crabtree after the 2012 season. Where were all of these fans a year ago? He is the same guy today that he was in 2011 and 2012. Just coming off a bigger season. That's partially due to health, but also mainly due to volume. He was 4th in the NFL in targets this year.
He's not going anywhere, but there will likely be subtraction by addition if Pitt's complementary options improve (which they should because right now they're awful). If you go back and look at what Ward/Holmes/Wallace did under Ben, they generally hovered around the 110-130 target mark. In fact, none of them ever topped 150 targets in a single season. All I'm saying is that I think Brown is more likely to slide back down to that level than maintain an average near 165 (his 2013 total). I also don't think he's going to average 8 TDs per season moving forward, as he's a small target with suspect red zone ability. Add it up and I think WR15 is a more reasonable expectation for him in a typical season than WR5.
There is a host of similar players in the league right now such as Harvin, Cobb, Hilton, and DeSean. Some are a little stronger and quicker than the others. Others are a little faster. They're all quality players, but none of them are prototypical #1 NFL receivers and I'd have a tough time drafting any of them at top 10 WR prices. Something in the WR2 range makes a lot of sense for most of them.
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Jenkinssssss
Footballguy
It's downright criminal to put Harvin in the elite tier of dynasty WRs, especially ahead of Gordon and Jeffrey.
EBF
Footballguy
Pitt has always had at least two viable targets at WR throughout all of Ben's years there:
Burress/Ward
Ward/Holmes
Ward/Holmes/Wallace
Wallace/Brown
Brown/???
That's part of the reason why I don't see them resting on their laurels and accepting Cotchery/Sanders as their #2. Maybe Wheaton can step up and be the guy next year, but it seems to me like they might need to dip back into the draft again. One way or another, I look for them to shore up that spot in the next year or two. Based on the past 10 years of the team, it's unlikely that any one of their receivers is going to sustain a 150+ target per season pace over multiple seasons.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Would you trade DeSean Jackson for Antonio Brown?
Concept Coop
Footballguy
In PPR formats, I think that's a no-brainer. In standard formats, Jackson has a lot of appeal in that offense. He'll rack up 1200+/8+ for as long as Chip is there. I'd likely still go with Brown, but it's much closer.
squistion
Footballguy
I think it is funnier that you don't seem to grasp the concept that a player like Brown can have a breakout season and people react accordingly. Perceptions can change based on a player's performance in any given year and that is what is happening here. Not everyone had a fixed opinion on Brown and the fantasy community has changed its perspective on him (perhaps an overreaction to the 2013 numbers, but that remains to be seen).
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EBF
Footballguy
I have often spoken of the "what have you done for me lately?" mindset that drives most dynasty rankings. Most dynasty rankings are just current production sorted by age, so whoever did well in the immediately preceding season will always be a popular choice in the next season. Last year Peterson, Crabtree, and Martin were hot. This year it's Gordon, Jeffery, Brown, and Charles. Next year it will be a handful of other guys.
The question that I think is always worth asking is whether or not the season a player just completed is an accurate reflection of his typical expected season moving forward or whether it was a fluke peak year that he'll never again match. Ryan Mathews was undervalued last offseason because people thought 2012 was an accurate reflection of who he was going forward. Likewise, Adrian Peterson (good as he is) was overvalued for the same reason. He was coming off a flukey freak year that he would never again match. That is not necessarily a smart time to buy players, as their prices tend to be highest when their smashing success is fresh in everybody's mind.
So was 2013 the "real" Antonio Brown or is he more like the guy we saw in 2011 and 2012? I think it's a fair question. For reasons that I already mentioned, I'm inclined to think that his numbers will regress slightly, but that he'll still be a legitimate player who will provide good scoring for several more years. I think he's a sensible choice in the WR12-WR15 range. That represents a nice acknowledgment of his great 2013 without assuming that he's going to play at that level every season (as he didn't in 2011 or 2012).
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bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
opensourcebeer
Footballguy
I like Wheaton as an off-season buy. I'm a buyer for the price of a second rounder.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
It would depend on the size of the league and the position of the pick in the 2nd round, but with the depth of this class I probably wouldn't make that move. Maybe for a late 2nd in a 14 teamer.
squistion
Footballguy
I think many people would be. As a Wheaton owner in two leagues, you would never get him that cheap (at least at this juncture).
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opensourcebeer
Footballguy
cloppbeast
Footballguy
I just offered Terrance Williams for Wheaton. Haven't heard anything yet.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I don't like that for you, personally. When Williams was full-time WR2, he put up top 15 numbers. He's in a much better situation and his value will soar because of it. Even if you think Wheaton is the better player, Williams' market value is going to explode early next season. I'd deal him then. Or enjoy the ride.
MTskibum
Footballguy
I own Wheaton in a dynasty league and I am going to hold. The steelers have done a great job drafting WR's the last 5 years and I have no reason to believe that Wheaton is going to be any different.
I would need a late first to trade him away.
squistion
Footballguy
I am guessing that Sanders is not resigned and that he steps in and fills the void. With that in mind 1.06/1.07 gets him easy. 1.08 to 1.12 depends on my roster and with what I think I could replace him with. Probably 1.08 to 1.10 would be the most realistic estimate at the moment.
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ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
cloppbeast
Footballguy
He rejected it anyway,without making a counter offer. If you're right, I'm better off anyway.
opensourcebeer
Footballguy
Hmmm...I'm a buyer on Wheaton at 1.10 easy.
EBF
Footballguy
I think it comes down to the fact that people who bought him don't want to sell unless they turn a profit based on what they originally paid.
So even though he did nothing as a rookie, they haven't adjusted his price at all.
Not saying there's anything wrong with that necessarily. Brown had a quiet rookie year and worked out well. Maybe Wheaton is poised for big things.
However, I don't think it's clear to an objective bystander that Wheaton's value went up. If anything, I'd be looking to pay less than I would've twelve months ago.
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opensourcebeer
Footballguy
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Wouldn't do that at all. So many RB's are going to rise up the boards, plus you have the TE's, it's very likely a WR (or other player) I like clearly more than Wheaton will be available.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Wouldn't do that at all. So many RB's are going to rise up the boards, plus you have the TE's, it's very likely a WR (or other player) I like clearly more than Wheaton will be available.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Probably not, because it's likely with this class that a 1st or 2nd round WR will be there at 1.10
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
BuckeyeChaos
Footballguy
I agree with EBF in his thinking and this comment is a great example of why. Your observations correctly point to higher value LAST YEAR. You would have been wise to factor this in and bump him last year. If you apply this going forward you are missing the boat a little. PIT is an excellent organization and they will address the issues that led to his bump in production. The defense should get better, Wheaton should improve, they probably grab another late WR (like they have been doing all along). THese things should lead to a decrease in production back towards his 2011 and/or 2012 numbers. He is still valuable but if you move his mean production up to 2013 levels you are in danger of overvaluing him.
coolnerd
Footballguy
As someone who owns Brown in multiple leagues, in the more active ones he was a very popular "buy low" or "sneak into trades" player after the 2012 season. People were not making bandwagon threads about him, but plenty of astute people om his football skill/situation with Steelers as very good going forward. In the HA league we share, I had at least 5 people inquire about him before 2013.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
His old college teammate and superior prospect will likely be on the board at 1.10. It would be a bit irnoic trading the pick for Wheaton then watching Cooks come off the board in the 2nd.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Given the depth of the class this year I'm really surprised anyone would give a top-20 pick for Wheaton. On a team that often had Jerricho Cotchery on the field Wheaton did absolutely nothing.
opensourcebeer
Footballguy
To the folks saying a late first is an overpay on Wheaton, where would you be a buyer on him draft pick wise?
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Who is suggesting that his 2013 season is the baseline? If we thought he was a good bet for top 5 numbers every season, at 25 YO, he'd be right next to Dez, Calvin, Green, etc. He's not. He's in the next group, with guys like Allen, Harvin, Cruz, Garcon, Jordy, and a lot of other guys with promise but question marks.
It's easy to say he's not top 10. But who are we putting ahead of him? I think names would would add more substance to the conversation.
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Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Just took a quick spin through DLF's January mock startup ADPs. + for underrated, - for overrated. Basically looking at estimated future VBD.
+Sam Bradford (19)
-Ryan Tannehill (13)
+Doug Martin (6)
+R Bush (18)
-L' Bell (5)
-Vereen (11)
-Moreno (21)
-L Miller (25)
+Thomas (6)
+Fitzgerald (18)
-Patterson (10)
-Allen (12)
+Clay (14)
-J Reed (7)
Generally I'm a buyer of talented guys with questions or poor situation and the guys I'm down on are players who I think are putting up #s based mostly on situation.
+Sam Bradford (19)
-Ryan Tannehill (13)
+Doug Martin (6)
+R Bush (18)
-L' Bell (5)
-Vereen (11)
-Moreno (21)
-L Miller (25)
+Thomas (6)
+Fitzgerald (18)
-Patterson (10)
-Allen (12)
+Clay (14)
-J Reed (7)
Generally I'm a buyer of talented guys with questions or poor situation and the guys I'm down on are players who I think are putting up #s based mostly on situation.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Overrated at 7?! The guy is very talented. He might not fit into a mold based on his measurables, but the kid is one of the better receiving TEs in the league.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Maybe so, time will tell. But at #7 you're buying him at his absolute ceiling IMO.
And I think he'll go the way of Tony Moeaki and Dustin Keller sooner rather than later.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
He was higher than #7 PPG in his rookie season, in which he left 2 games early due to injury. SSOG pointed out how awesome his season was going to be, historically.
I do respect the work you do to find past comps and use them to place players into profiles. But at some point, especially with TEs as the roles are changing so drastically, I think there is value in stepping away from that. Reed abused defenders this season, and at one point led the league in catch%, many on 3rd down and in big spots.
I'll just have to say that I respectfully, but greatly disagree with this particular call.
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