Dynasty Rankings (9 Viewers)

[Jeff Pasquino]

Hey F&L....

Great thread here.

Leave it to me to ask a ? about defenses.

Given that Miami has both Booker and Ginn to return kicks and they have good playmakers on defense, why are they so low?

I'd also bump NO up one tier just because of Reggie Bush.

Thanks, Jeff.I think you're right about the Dolphins defense. It's been over a month, and I hadn't adjusted the defensive rankings since then. At that time, there were more questions about Ginn's health...I like him much better than Booker as a returner. Also factoring into the original ranking was the overall aging of the defense, which could be a hindrance to playmaking, as well as concerns about the ability of the offense (pre-Green acquisition...and post-Green acquisition for that matter) to pitch in and do their part to keep the defense fresh.

On the other hand, if you check out post #447 I did pick the Dolphins as the lowered tiered defense with the best chance to make the leap into the upper tiers this season. I don't think you have to look hard to see upside here. I'm pretty sure I'll move the Dolphins up a tier next time I sit down and revisit the rankings.

Re: Bush & the Saints. I think I give significant weight to an explosive return game as long as there's also something intriguing going on with other aspects of the defense. I can't really find much to get me excited about the Saints fantasy defense beyond their punt-returner, so I don't know that it really raises the level of their whole unit ahead of any of the other bottom tier wild card defenses. For example, I think you could make a better argument for the Cardinals or 49ers defenses.

IIRC, the Saints had Bush returning punts last season, and they managed a ranking somewhere around 25-30 overall among defenses. What is it that makes you believe they're going to have a significant turn around in defensive scoring?

Defenses (and their rankings) are highly dependent on the respective scoring systems used by each league.That said, if I had a pool of 8-10 "whatever" defenses at the bottom of my list - what would I use to separate one from the other? Potential explosiveness / scoring on special teams, that's what.

To me that screams New Orleans, even if their D doesn't improve from 2006. I think it will (it would be pretty hard not to), but that's why I'd put NO and MIA higher than where they were - just so I knew that they were worth a little more than a team with little to offer at kick returning.

 

[gianmarco]

F&L, I question MBIII being ranked in the 3rd tier. Has there been any clear indication that his carries will increase? The only thing he really had going for him was his TDs, and you say you expect them to go down. What exactly is his upside, then?

That's a very good question. I don't think there's been a clear indication of anything in DAL regarding the running backs. I've always seen Barber's ideal role to be the one he's been in for the past two years. I think he'd be stretched a bit as a workhorse back. I know that many guys think differently -- that he will take more and more of the carries away from Jones until he weeds him out altogether, and then he'll thrive as the starter. I think I may have subconsciously allowed that to seep into my thinking on the subject.My ranking on MBIII is probably a bit of hedging. Even if I don't believe 16 TDs is a possibility again, he could easily put up 9-12 and take some further yardage and value from Jones. With a new coaching staff in town and Jones a possibility to be gone after the season, betting on Barber to gain value isn't a bad idea. I guess I was trying to anticipate and hedge a bit at the same time.To be quite frank, Barber's ranking is not one that I feel very solid about. Edit to add: I think I'll do some further research and revisit MBIII's ranking. Do any of the MBIII lovers have a solid argument (i.e. please give me more than last year's TD total) for ranking him highly?

I know this is from a while ago, but I will do my best to give up some explanations as to why I think he's valuable even if he's not starting.--He scored in 11 of 16 games last year. 5 of those games were multi-TD games.--He finished the year with a 4.8 ypc average on 135 attempts. Far from shabby, especially when you consider he was also a goalline back which should bring that # down. If you take out the last 2 games of the year where he really wasn't used, that # was over 5 ypc.--He had a 10+ yd run in TWELVE out of 16 games. TWELVE!!! That's just explosive. And again, when you consider he barely averaged 8 attempts/game and was brought into goalline situations, that # is just amazing. Of course, his longest run was only 25 yds which means all of these nice chunks didn't inflate his ypc incorrectly. And, in the 4 games where he didn't have a 10+ yd run, he only got the ball 2, 3, 6, and 7 times, the lowest attempts of the year.I think this guy is far from a fluke and I think he will continue to have significant fantasy value even if he's not a starter. If he IS a starter, then who knows what the ceiling is. While I agree he is a difficult player to rank, I think a high ranking is absolutely justified in a dynasty league.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

F&L, I question MBIII being ranked in the 3rd tier. Has there been any clear indication that his carries will increase? The only thing he really had going for him was his TDs, and you say you expect them to go down. What exactly is his upside, then?

That's a very good question. I don't think there's been a clear indication of anything in DAL regarding the running backs. I've always seen Barber's ideal role to be the one he's been in for the past two years. I think he'd be stretched a bit as a workhorse back. I know that many guys think differently -- that he will take more and more of the carries away from Jones until he weeds him out altogether, and then he'll thrive as the starter. I think I may have subconsciously allowed that to seep into my thinking on the subject.My ranking on MBIII is probably a bit of hedging. Even if I don't believe 16 TDs is a possibility again, he could easily put up 9-12 and take some further yardage and value from Jones. With a new coaching staff in town and Jones a possibility to be gone after the season, betting on Barber to gain value isn't a bad idea. I guess I was trying to anticipate and hedge a bit at the same time.To be quite frank, Barber's ranking is not one that I feel very solid about. Edit to add: I think I'll do some further research and revisit MBIII's ranking. Do any of the MBIII lovers have a solid argument (i.e. please give me more than last year's TD total) for ranking him highly?

I know this is from a while ago, but I will do my best to give up some explanations as to why I think he's valuable even if he's not starting.--He scored in 11 of 16 games last year. 5 of those games were multi-TD games.--He finished the year with a 4.8 ypc average on 135 attempts. Far from shabby, especially when you consider he was also a goalline back which should bring that # down. If you take out the last 2 games of the year where he really wasn't used, that # was over 5 ypc.--He had a 10+ yd run in TWELVE out of 16 games. TWELVE!!! That's just explosive. And again, when you consider he barely averaged 8 attempts/game and was brought into goalline situations, that # is just amazing. Of course, his longest run was only 25 yds which means all of these nice chunks didn't inflate his ypc incorrectly. And, in the 4 games where he didn't have a 10+ yd run, he only got the ball 2, 3, 6, and 7 times, the lowest attempts of the year.I think this guy is far from a fluke and I think he will continue to have significant fantasy value even if he's not a starter. If he IS a starter, then who knows what the ceiling is. While I agree he is a difficult player to rank, I think a high ranking is absolutely justified in a dynasty league.

Very solid points, gianmarco. You don't have to look far to find excitement in Barber's '06 numbers or his overall talents/skills as a RB. However, here's where I have a problem with Barber:-- There's very little chance he comes close to matching last year's TD total. Seasons with 16 TDs are extremely rare in the NFL, and history is littered with much more talented backs who never got close to 16 in a season. -- He's still sharing the ball with another RB, and as of right now, there's little reason to believe his role is going to be increased in '07. We don't know exactly what's going to happen with the new coaching staff, but signs are pointing to a similar arrangement. -- Whereas I have a good feeling that a guy like Michael Turner will be the main RB for a team by next season, I really have no clue when or even if MBIII will become the main RB for Dallas or another team. So where would you have MBIII in a dynasty RB list? Which players would you drop below him?

 

[cpstorm]

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[gianmarco]

Very solid points, gianmarco. You don't have to look far to find excitement in Barber's '06 numbers or his overall talents/skills as a RB. However, here's where I have a problem with Barber:-- There's very little chance he comes close to matching last year's TD total. Seasons with 16 TDs are extremely rare in the NFL, and history is littered with much more talented backs who never got close to 16 in a season. -- He's still sharing the ball with another RB, and as of right now, there's little reason to believe his role is going to be increased in '07. We don't know exactly what's going to happen with the new coaching staff, but signs are pointing to a similar arrangement. -- Whereas I have a good feeling that a guy like Michael Turner will be the main RB for a team by next season, I really have no clue when or even if MBIII will become the main RB for Dallas or another team. So where would you have MBIII in a dynasty RB list? Which players would you drop below him?

Well, where to take him is a little tricky. You've got him in the 3rd tier currently and I think that's just about right. He doesn't warrant a higher spot at this point as an overall average and arguments could be made that he should be lower than some other young, full-time backs. However, here is the thing.If you like him, and there are lots of things to like, then you'll probably have to reach and grab him pretty early. In my new 12 team dynasty league, he went at pick 3.03 (27th overall) and most thought it was a reach. However, the guy that took him is sold on him and I can't really argue that. If he DOES land a starting job and can continue to produce at that level, then he was an absolute steal. If not, it's not completely devastating. The fact that the depth at RB is so deep this year in terms of "sufficient" #2 RB's, then if you like him the gamble is worth taking. With guys like A. Green and Edge and J. Lewis going 1-2 rounds later, it won't kill your season to be wrong. We've seen plenty of 2nd and 3rd round bombs (and even 1st) and know that it's possible to recover. I would personally rather reach on a couple other guys, but I do like MBIII a lot and I think he will earn the starting job sooner rather than later and be a valuable fantasy player.

 

[gianmarco]

Let me also add:

1. I agree that he won't see 16 TDs again. But if we see even half of that, which is somewhat realistic, then I'd still feel good about his selection.

2. As for him continuing to share time, he's one of the few RB's that showed, at least for one year, that he can share time and still produce at a high level. The fact that he outscored many starting RB's that didn't share time shows me that even in a worst-case scenario where he continues to share, he still holds high value. I know that the # of TD's he scored are what made him so valuable compared to many other full-time backs, but I really can't imagine his total production dropping off that much. Even if he does start to come back down to earth, his play warrants SOME increased playing time to help offset that. Again, it's a gamble, but I've seen and taken much larger gambles in FF. This is a guy that could end up being a difference maker and top 10 RB if he lands the starting job. Someone with that talent won't stay a backup forever. I think his price may be higher now than if you were to wait a little, but I don't think it's too, too high at this point.

3. I don't have a clue whether or not he'll land the job. For reasons unknown to me, it does look like J. Jones will keep the starting job. But I wouldn't be drafting him with the expectations of him starting this season or even next. But I think it's a reasonable gamble to expect him to have SOME starting job in 2 years. And in the meantime, he provides more production than a guy like Michael Turner.

Bottomline, he's a risk but not a very costly one. I don't always get excited about players who have done well in just one season, but his consistency during the entire year in such a limited role was remarkable. We're not talking about a couple big games here and there. He did it week in and week out. It's the same reason there's so much hype about MJD. I think MJD is more of a risk simply bc his cost right now is significantly higher than Barber's. Having a late 1st, early 2nd round pick bomb is harder to recover from than a 3rd-4th round pick. While I like both guys and think both will succeed, I would gamble on Barber right now over MJD just bc the cost of being wrong isn't as high and the ceiling is the same, IMO.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Let me also add:1. I agree that he won't see 16 TDs again. But if we see even half of that, which is somewhat realistic, then I'd still feel good about his selection.2. As for him continuing to share time, he's one of the few RB's that showed, at least for one year, that he can share time and still produce at a high level. The fact that he outscored many starting RB's that didn't share time shows me that even in a worst-case scenario where he continues to share, he still holds high value. I know that the # of TD's he scored are what made him so valuable compared to many other full-time backs, but I really can't imagine his total production dropping off that much. Even if he does start to come back down to earth, his play warrants SOME increased playing time to help offset that. Again, it's a gamble, but I've seen and taken much larger gambles in FF. This is a guy that could end up being a difference maker and top 10 RB if he lands the starting job. Someone with that talent won't stay a backup forever. I think his price may be higher now than if you were to wait a little, but I don't think it's too, too high at this point.3. I don't have a clue whether or not he'll land the job. For reasons unknown to me, it does look like J. Jones will keep the starting job. But I wouldn't be drafting him with the expectations of him starting this season or even next. But I think it's a reasonable gamble to expect him to have SOME starting job in 2 years. And in the meantime, he provides more production than a guy like Michael Turner.Bottomline, he's a risk but not a very costly one. I don't always get excited about players who have done well in just one season, but his consistency during the entire year in such a limited role was remarkable. We're not talking about a couple big games here and there. He did it week in and week out. It's the same reason there's so much hype about MJD. I think MJD is more of a risk simply bc his cost right now is significantly higher than Barber's. Having a late 1st, early 2nd round pick bomb is harder to recover from than a 3rd-4th round pick. While I like both guys and think both will succeed, I would gamble on Barber right now over MJD just bc the cost of being wrong isn't as high and the ceiling is the same, IMO.

I love it when somebody articulates a good argument, even if it does run contrary to my beliefs about a player.Your points 1-3 are pretty much spot on. I think it's possible to take issue with your final paragraph though. I think MJD is much less of a risk than Barber even if you do have to grab him high. If MJD fails to produce double digit TDs again, you're still sitting there with a no-doubt top 15 talent at RB for the future and a guy who is unquestionably "the man" at RB for JAX just as Reggie Bush is "the man" for the Saints. Barber, on the other hand, what happens if he fails to produce more than 6 or 7 TDs this year? Then he's just another back-up RB for the future. As I've said before, the difference between MJD and Barber is talent, and it's a sizable difference. In dynasty leagues I want the guy with the exceptional talent, not the guy who has possible starter level talent but derives much of his value from the way his team utilizes his strengths as a role player. To me, the cost of being wrong on MJD is that I'm still left with a very talented RB commodity even if he experiences a sophomore slump. The cost of being wrong on MBIII is that I'm left with a back-up RB who has a timeshare upside. And again, I think not enough guys saw MJD play last year. His ceiling is a matterhorn. Barber's is closer to a foothill.

 

[Dutch Kincade]

Let me also add:To me, the cost of being wrong on MJD is that I'm still left with a very talented RB commodity even if he experiences a sophomore slump. The cost of being wrong on MBIII is that I'm left with a back-up RB who has a timeshare upside. And again, I think not enough guys saw MJD play last year. His ceiling is a matterhorn. Barber's is closer to a foothill.

Not to mention McFadden will be starting for Dallas next season.

 

[gianmarco]

I guess our difference is that I think a little more highly of MBIII and a little less on MJD so I don't think there exists as big a difference.

I watched MJD in most of his games and I like how he runs but wasn't dropping my jaw. He had a few really long runs that I think skewed some of his #'s as well which came against the likes of Indy (twice) and Tenn. I'm not really knocking him in the sense that I don't think he'll repeat, but I don't think he's a lock as a top starter if he gets the job just because of what he did.

As far as what MBIII did, I think his talent is on par with MJD after watching him play but his situation is definitely not as good. I don't agree that if MBIII fails that he's just a backup RB. But that's ok because we don't have to agree Suffice it to say that I seriously doubt whoever ends up with either of these guys will end up being disappointed. Both are pretty talented RB's and both have the potential to be top 10 RB's in the near future. MJD's future is closer and may have a higher ceiling, but MBIII isn't far behind, at least in my eyes.

Oh, and I LOVE me some McFadden. I kinda wanna tank this year so I can get him too

 

[TDavi118]

Let me also add:To me, the cost of being wrong on MJD is that I'm still left with a very talented RB commodity even if he experiences a sophomore slump. The cost of being wrong on MBIII is that I'm left with a back-up RB who has a timeshare upside. And again, I think not enough guys saw MJD play last year. His ceiling is a matterhorn. Barber's is closer to a foothill.

Not to mention McFadden will be starting for Dallas next season.

Now,... where in the world did this news come from? ........elaborate please.

 

[Nigel Tufnel]

Let me also add:To me, the cost of being wrong on MJD is that I'm still left with a very talented RB commodity even if he experiences a sophomore slump. The cost of being wrong on MBIII is that I'm left with a back-up RB who has a timeshare upside. And again, I think not enough guys saw MJD play last year. His ceiling is a matterhorn. Barber's is closer to a foothill.

Not to mention McFadden will be starting for Dallas next season.

Now,... where in the world did this news come from? ........elaborate please.

Wild speculation. They have the Browns' number one next year.

 

[Driver]

Looks like Chris Brown signed a one-year contract with TEN. What do you think the prospects are this year and next year (and future years) for Brown, LenDale and Chris Henry? How do the rankings change?

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Looks like Chris Brown signed a one-year contract with TEN. What do you think the prospects are this year and next year (and future years) for Brown, LenDale and Chris Henry? How do the rankings change?

Initial quick reaction on value: still questionable (Brown), still a "hope so" (White), and I'll believe it when I see it (Henry).It's a clusterfork...officially.

 

[az_prof]

Let me also add:To me, the cost of being wrong on MJD is that I'm still left with a very talented RB commodity even if he experiences a sophomore slump. The cost of being wrong on MBIII is that I'm left with a back-up RB who has a timeshare upside. And again, I think not enough guys saw MJD play last year. His ceiling is a matterhorn. Barber's is closer to a foothill.

Not to mention McFadden will be starting for Dallas next season.

Now,... where in the world did this news come from? ........elaborate please.

Wild speculation. They have the Browns' number one next year.

This tells me that the Titans are officially concerned about what they have seen from Henry and White. If either of these guys had shown that he was THE guy, then why sign Brown, who they pretty much had shown the door? I don't think any of these guys are worth a lot, but I would rank them in this order: Brown, White, Henry.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

This tells me that the Titans are officially concerned about what they have seen from Henry and White. If either of these guys had shown that he was THE guy, then why sign Brown, who they pretty much had shown the door? I don't think any of these guys are worth a lot, but I would rank them in this order: Brown, White, Henry.

For dynasty purposes, I would rank them:1. White - the most talented running back of the trio; still very young; undeniable maturity & dedication issues; major knucklehead potential. High risk but also best chance for a high reward, which is what I'm after2. C.Henry - obvious measurable assets, thoroughly unimpressive track record in college; major bust potential; failed to show enough to prevent Brown's re-signing. Could go either way, but still not as talented a runner as White3. C.Brown - may start the year as the lead back, but the lack of league-wide interest is an indication of low dynasty value; questions about his running style, toughness, opportunity and especially an ability to keep the job long enough to sustain any true dynasty value. Ceiling is too low to be considered a commodity with significant value

 

[NOLABim]

This tells me that the Titans are officially concerned about what they have seen from Henry and White. If either of these guys had shown that he was THE guy, then why sign Brown, who they pretty much had shown the door? I don't think any of these guys are worth a lot, but I would rank them in this order: Brown, White, Henry.

For dynasty purposes, I would rank them:1. White - the most talented running back of the trio; still very young; undeniable maturity & dedication issues; major knucklehead potential. High risk but also best chance for a high reward, which is what I'm after2. C.Henry - obvious measurable assets, thoroughly unimpressive track record in college; major bust potential; failed to show enough to prevent Brown's re-signing. Could go either way, but still not as talented a runner as White3. C.Brown - may start the year as the lead back, but the lack of league-wide interest is an indication of low dynasty value; questions about his running style, toughness, opportunity and especially an ability to keep the job long enough to sustain any true dynasty value. Ceiling is too low to be considered a commodity with significant value

I usually just lurk but... This is as good a FFL thread as I have ever read. I have many many hours of catching up to get through all of this!

 

[-OZ-]

Let me also add:To me, the cost of being wrong on MJD is that I'm still left with a very talented RB commodity even if he experiences a sophomore slump. The cost of being wrong on MBIII is that I'm left with a back-up RB who has a timeshare upside. And again, I think not enough guys saw MJD play last year. His ceiling is a matterhorn. Barber's is closer to a foothill.

Not to mention McFadden will be starting for Dallas next season.

Now,... where in the world did this news come from? ........elaborate please.

Wild speculation. They have the Browns' number one next year.

This tells me that the Titans are officially concerned about what they have seen from Henry and White. If either of these guys had shown that he was THE guy, then why sign Brown, who they pretty much had shown the door? I don't think any of these guys are worth a lot, but I would rank them in this order: Brown, White, Henry.

Did you post in the wrong thread?

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Disclaimer: I'm a Brown owner. Having said...

Chris Henry has shown nothing, at any point, that suggests he's an NFL RB. His college coaches didn't start him, and his pro coaches took about 30 seconds to decide they damn well better bring someone else in after they got a look at him.

Lendale White has the talent, but not the head. You don't suddenly go from an alleged pot-smoking party boy in college, from a guy that shows up to camp overweight as a rookie, then repeats the feat as a 2nd year guy with a chance to win the starting job after your competition has left town to someone who 'gets it' and puts forth the effort it takes to succeed in the NFL. Head cases NEVER learn until they lose something that's important to them.

That leaves Brown, who has at least shown he's got the talent and the work ethic to be a viable starter in the NFL. I'm not saying he's going to, just that he's the best bet of these three.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Disclaimer: I'm a Brown owner. Having said...Chris Henry has shown nothing, at any point, that suggests he's an NFL RB. His college coaches didn't start him, and his pro coaches took about 30 seconds to decide they damn well better bring someone else in after they got a look at him.Lendale White has the talent, but not the head. You don't suddenly go from an alleged pot-smoking party boy in college, from a guy that shows up to camp overweight as a rookie, then repeats the feat as a 2nd year guy with a chance to win the starting job after your competition has left town to someone who 'gets it' and puts forth the effort it takes to succeed in the NFL. Head cases NEVER learn until they lose something that's important to them.That leaves Brown, who has at least shown he's got the talent and the work ethic to be a viable starter in the NFL. I'm not saying he's going to, just that he's the best bet of these three.

Best bet of these three to do what? Start the season opener for the Titans? Outproduce the other two this year? Build trade value throughout the season? Maintain value beyond '07? Become a weekly starter for your fantasy team? Become a weekly advantage for your fantasy team? Lead you to your fantasy title?I'm not all that interested in the first question...and only mildly so in the second question. I want the guy who has the best chance to be the answer to the last five questions. Is that Chris Brown? Not bloody likely. Let me ask you this hypothetical question: what do you think would be the reaction if you were to offer Chris Brown to the LenDale White owner in your dynasty league? How about the Chris Henry owner? I'm dead certain both those deals would be turned down unflinchingly in my leagues.

 

[Christo]

Disclaimer: I'm a Brown owner. Having said...Chris Henry has shown nothing, at any point, that suggests he's an NFL RB. His college coaches didn't start him, and his pro coaches took about 30 seconds to decide they damn well better bring someone else in after they got a look at him.Lendale White has the talent, but not the head. You don't suddenly go from an alleged pot-smoking party boy in college, from a guy that shows up to camp overweight as a rookie, then repeats the feat as a 2nd year guy with a chance to win the starting job after your competition has left town to someone who 'gets it' and puts forth the effort it takes to succeed in the NFL. Head cases NEVER learn until they lose something that's important to them.That leaves Brown, who has at least shown he's got the talent and the work ethic to be a viable starter in the NFL. I'm not saying he's going to, just that he's the best bet of these three.

Best bet of these three to do what? Start the season opener for the Titans? Outproduce the other two this year? Build trade value throughout the season? Maintain value beyond '07? Become a weekly starter for your fantasy team? Become a weekly advantage for your fantasy team? Lead you to your fantasy title?I'm not all that interested in the first question...and only mildly so in the second question. I want the guy who has the best chance to be the answer to the last five questions. Is that Chris Brown? Not bloody likely. Let me ask you this hypothetical question: what do you think would be the reaction if you were to offer Chris Brown to the LenDale White owner in your dynasty league? How about the Chris Henry owner? I'm dead certain both those deals would be turned down unflinchingly in my leagues.

Let's experiment. I'll do that right now and see.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Let me ask you this hypothetical question: what do you think would be the reaction if you were to offer Chris Brown to the LenDale White owner in your dynasty league? How about the Chris Henry owner? I'm dead certain both those deals would be turned down unflinchingly in my leagues.

Love your work, love the thread, we disagree here though. Henry's not even close in my book. White is down to whether you think he'll 'get it.' I don't, so wouldn't take him. But I can see the argument there at least. I'm probably also biased b/c I've never seen anything I considered credible showing that some players really are 'injury prone.'

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

I'm doing the same thing...got one guy who would keep White, but not Henry.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Let me ask you this hypothetical question: what do you think would be the reaction if you were to offer Chris Brown to the LenDale White owner in your dynasty league? How about the Chris Henry owner? I'm dead certain both those deals would be turned down unflinchingly in my leagues.

Love your work, love the thread, we disagree here though. Henry's not even close in my book. White is down to whether you think he'll 'get it.' I don't, so wouldn't take him. But I can see the argument there at least. I'm probably also biased b/c I've never seen anything I considered credible showing that some players really are 'injury prone.'

Good discussion, but I don't get what you're saying with the 'injury prone' comment. What you're saying is that the only reason people would be down on Chris Brown is the mistaken belief that he's injury prone? After being passed over by every other team in the league this offseason, the Titans just re-signed a RB they thought highly enough of last year to have him active for a whopping four games. You don't see that as a significant drain on dynasty value? Even if you don't see it that way, can you see how others would see that as a problem particularly in dynasty leagues?

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Good discussion, but I don't get what you're saying with the 'injury prone' comment. What you're saying is that the only reason people would be down on Chris Brown is the mistaken belief that he's injury prone? After being passed over by every other team in the league this offseason, the Titans just re-signed a RB they thought highly enough of last year to have him active for a whopping four games. You don't see that as a significant drain on dynasty value? Even if you don't see it that way, can you see how others would see that as a problem particularly in dynasty leagues?

Totally see where people are coming from on Brown. In fact, just had an hour discussion on Brown/White and Morency/Jackson in one of my leagues after I left here.I think the Brown thing was as much about Brown's injuries and asking to be traded as it was about his talent. I don't buy the injury thing (at least not until someone shows me something that adds up). And the same TN team that loved Lendale enough to let T Henry and Brown go three months ago just made a play to re-sign Brown now. But my main reason for favoring Brown is that laziness and a sense of entitlement are character traits. And they won't go away. White may have a fire lit under him for a few days or weeks at a time, but he'll always go back to who he is -- which to all outward appearances is a guy that's always gotten by on talent. And he'll keep believing he can do that right up until the minute he's out of the league.

 

[the_sig]

Disclaimer: I'm a Brown owner. Having said...

Chris Henry has shown nothing, at any point, that suggests he's an NFL RB. His college coaches didn't start him, and his pro coaches took about 30 seconds to decide they damn well better bring someone else in after they got a look at him.

Lendale White has the talent, but not the head. You don't suddenly go from an alleged pot-smoking party boy in college, from a guy that shows up to camp overweight as a rookie, then repeats the feat as a 2nd year guy with a chance to win the starting job after your competition has left town to someone who 'gets it' and puts forth the effort it takes to succeed in the NFL. Head cases NEVER learn until they lose something that's important to them.

That leaves Brown, who has at least shown he's got the talent and the work ethic to be a viable starter in the NFL. I'm not saying he's going to, just that he's the best bet of these three.

Best bet of these three to do what? Start the season opener for the Titans? Outproduce the other two this year? Build trade value throughout the season? Maintain value beyond '07? Become a weekly starter for your fantasy team? Become a weekly advantage for your fantasy team? Lead you to your fantasy title?I'm not all that interested in the first question...and only mildly so in the second question. I want the guy who has the best chance to be the answer to the last five questions. Is that Chris Brown? Not bloody likely.

Let me ask you this hypothetical question: what do you think would be the reaction if you were to offer Chris Brown to the LenDale White owner in your dynasty league? How about the Chris Henry owner? I'm dead certain both those deals would be turned down unflinchingly in my leagues.

In reality, I don't think either White or Henry is the answer to your bolded question.....at least not any more so than Chris Brown. Perhaps we know less about them, at least what they can truly accomplish at the NFL level, but that doesn't equate to them being the answer either.In your QB rankings, when you discuss Brown's teammate Vince Young, you mention that his lack of supporting cast causes you to downgrade him a bit, saying ultimately 'shouldn't we all be trying to win now?' With that line of thinking, I think Brown holds a bit more current value (gasp...even in dynasty) as a role player to help a fantasy team win now. I'm not saying Brown is going to win anything for you on his own, just that he (presuming he is the starter in TEN) could be a very useful RB4 type guy.

In a recent 14 team startup dynasty draft, I took Brown as my RB4. The investment wasn't too bad (overall pick 194). He went after RB's like Mike Anderson (overall pick 189) and just before RB M. Bennett (overall pick 197). Unless McGahee or LJ go down, neither one of those guys will sniff the stats or value that Chris Brown will have this year if he indeed holds down the starting gig.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Disclaimer: I'm a Brown owner. Having said...

Chris Henry has shown nothing, at any point, that suggests he's an NFL RB. His college coaches didn't start him, and his pro coaches took about 30 seconds to decide they damn well better bring someone else in after they got a look at him.

Lendale White has the talent, but not the head. You don't suddenly go from an alleged pot-smoking party boy in college, from a guy that shows up to camp overweight as a rookie, then repeats the feat as a 2nd year guy with a chance to win the starting job after your competition has left town to someone who 'gets it' and puts forth the effort it takes to succeed in the NFL. Head cases NEVER learn until they lose something that's important to them.

That leaves Brown, who has at least shown he's got the talent and the work ethic to be a viable starter in the NFL. I'm not saying he's going to, just that he's the best bet of these three.

Best bet of these three to do what? Start the season opener for the Titans? Outproduce the other two this year? Build trade value throughout the season? Maintain value beyond '07? Become a weekly starter for your fantasy team? Become a weekly advantage for your fantasy team? Lead you to your fantasy title?I'm not all that interested in the first question...and only mildly so in the second question. I want the guy who has the best chance to be the answer to the last five questions. Is that Chris Brown? Not bloody likely.

Let me ask you this hypothetical question: what do you think would be the reaction if you were to offer Chris Brown to the LenDale White owner in your dynasty league? How about the Chris Henry owner? I'm dead certain both those deals would be turned down unflinchingly in my leagues.

In reality, I don't think either White or Henry is the answer to your bolded question.....at least not any more so than Chris Brown. Perhaps we know less about them, at least what they can truly accomplish at the NFL level, but that doesn't equate to them being the answer either.In your QB rankings, when you discuss Brown's teammate Vince Young, you mention that his lack of supporting cast causes you to downgrade him a bit, saying ultimately 'shouldn't we all be trying to win now?' With that line of thinking, I think Brown holds a bit more current value (gasp...even in dynasty) as a role player to help a fantasy team win now. I'm not saying Brown is going to win anything for you on his own, just that he (presuming he is the starter in TEN) could be a very useful RB4 type guy.

In a recent 14 team startup dynasty draft, I took Brown as my RB4. The investment wasn't too bad (overall pick 194). He went after RB's like Mike Anderson (overall pick 189) and just before RB M. Bennett (overall pick 197). Unless McGahee or LJ go down, neither one of those guys will sniff the stats or value that Chris Brown will have this year if he indeed holds down the starting gig.

1. You should be trying to win now with your franchise QB. Your 4th RB slot, on the other hand, is much better utilized as a cache for promising young talent. I've never approached my back-up RBs with a win-now approach in dynasty leagues. That's what my nucleus is for. I'm building my bench with an eye toward young talents who haven't yet received their opportunity to shine or fail.2. Having said that, I think where you got Chris Brown was great value. I'd take him much earlier than a guy like Mike Anderson or Michael Bennett.

3. I haven't really addressed wdcrob's claim that LenDale can't turn it around b/c "once a pot-smoking waste of flesh, always a pot-smoking waste of flesh" nor your similar contention that White is not the answer. The reality is that we just don't know yet. I remember people making similar claims about Randy Moss, Plaxico Burress & Warren Sapp at various points in their careers. Cris Carter, written off completely on multiple occasions early in his career, was once seen as the ultimate headcase.

If you will recall, Larry Johnson's perceived value a few years ago was pretty much in the same place as LenDale White's current value. I'm not saying White is going to go LJ on the league. What I am saying is that, even without knowing what kind of player LJ would ultimately become, it would have been foolish to surrender him in a deal for an Antowain Smith or Stacey Mack...just because conventional wisdom had written LJ off as a headcase who had not yet produced.

I know what Chris Brown brings to the table, and I don't place a high value on that package. I don't know yet what LenDale White brings to the table, but I'm willing to put stock in finding out that answer for the right price.

 

[EBF]

Disclaimer: I'm a Brown owner. Having said...

Chris Henry has shown nothing, at any point, that suggests he's an NFL RB. His college coaches didn't start him, and his pro coaches took about 30 seconds to decide they damn well better bring someone else in after they got a look at him.

Lendale White has the talent, but not the head. You don't suddenly go from an alleged pot-smoking party boy in college, from a guy that shows up to camp overweight as a rookie, then repeats the feat as a 2nd year guy with a chance to win the starting job after your competition has left town to someone who 'gets it' and puts forth the effort it takes to succeed in the NFL. Head cases NEVER learn until they lose something that's important to them.

That leaves Brown, who has at least shown he's got the talent and the work ethic to be a viable starter in the NFL. I'm not saying he's going to, just that he's the best bet of these three.

Best bet of these three to do what? Start the season opener for the Titans? Outproduce the other two this year? Build trade value throughout the season? Maintain value beyond '07? Become a weekly starter for your fantasy team? Become a weekly advantage for your fantasy team? Lead you to your fantasy title?I'm not all that interested in the first question...and only mildly so in the second question. I want the guy who has the best chance to be the answer to the last five questions. Is that Chris Brown? Not bloody likely.

Let me ask you this hypothetical question: what do you think would be the reaction if you were to offer Chris Brown to the LenDale White owner in your dynasty league? How about the Chris Henry owner? I'm dead certain both those deals would be turned down unflinchingly in my leagues.

In reality, I don't think either White or Henry is the answer to your bolded question.....at least not any more so than Chris Brown. Perhaps we know less about them, at least what they can truly accomplish at the NFL level, but that doesn't equate to them being the answer either.In your QB rankings, when you discuss Brown's teammate Vince Young, you mention that his lack of supporting cast causes you to downgrade him a bit, saying ultimately 'shouldn't we all be trying to win now?' With that line of thinking, I think Brown holds a bit more current value (gasp...even in dynasty) as a role player to help a fantasy team win now. I'm not saying Brown is going to win anything for you on his own, just that he (presuming he is the starter in TEN) could be a very useful RB4 type guy.

In a recent 14 team startup dynasty draft, I took Brown as my RB4. The investment wasn't too bad (overall pick 194). He went after RB's like Mike Anderson (overall pick 189) and just before RB M. Bennett (overall pick 197). Unless McGahee or LJ go down, neither one of those guys will sniff the stats or value that Chris Brown will have this year if he indeed holds down the starting gig.

1. You should be trying to win now with your franchise QB. Your 4th RB slot, on the other hand, is much better utilized as a cache for promising young talent. I've never approached my back-up RBs with a win-now approach in dynasty leagues. That's what my nucleus is for. I'm building my bench with an eye toward young talents who haven't yet received their opportunity to shine or fail.2. Having said that, I think where you got Chris Brown was great value. I'd take him much earlier than a guy like Mike Anderson or Michael Bennett.

3. I haven't really addressed wdcrob's claim that LenDale can't turn it around b/c "once a pot-smoking waste of flesh, always a pot-smoking waste of flesh" nor your similar contention that White is not the answer. The reality is that we just don't know yet. I remember people making similar claims about Randy Moss, Plaxico Burress & Warren Sapp at various points in their careers. Cris Carter, written off completely on multiple occasions early in his career, was once seen as the ultimate headcase.

If you will recall, Larry Johnson's perceived value a few years ago was pretty much in the same place as LenDale White's current value. I'm not saying White is going to go LJ on the league. What I am saying is that, even without knowing what kind of player LJ would ultimately become, it would have been foolish to surrender him in a deal for an Antowain Smith or Stacey Mack...just because conventional wisdom had written LJ off as a headcase who had not yet produced.

I know what Chris Brown brings to the table, and I don't place a high value on that package. I don't know yet what LenDale White brings to the table, but I'm willing to put stock in finding out that answer for the right price.

I agree with your take. It's a mistake to quit on a player who hasn't had his big chance yet. And while White certainly hasn't done anything in the NFL to inspire confidence, his career isn't over just yet. NorrisB was nice enough to upload a good LenDale video that he posted a link to in this thread:

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...0910&st=200

White looks pretty good in these clips. He's not explosive like Bush or LT, but I think even his detractors would have to admit that he doesn't run like a big fat slug. In fact, he's quite a bit faster than I remembered.

I won't argue that there are some legitimate character concerns and that the tea leaves (drafting Henry, pursuing Turner, signing Brown) have been completely negative, but plenty of players have risen from the ashes and resurrected their careers when no one expected it. I wouldn't feel comfortable banking on White, but I wouldn't count him out either.

 

[the_sig]

EBF & F&L:

Just to be clear, I'm not saying give up on White, or even Henry. I guess I was just trying to chime in that I would also extend that same 'don't totally write the guy off' philosophy to Chris Brown as well. It seemed that F&L was making a definitive 'not bloody likely' statement and I thought Brown likely has as good a shot to be productive (short term & long term) as either White or Henry.

As I pointed out in my earlier post, Brown is a very cheap investment these days in dynasty (or at least was a month ago). I'm advocating not writing off his 4.8 ypc in 2004. I'm advocating that all his IFS (health, etc..) are no greater than the big IFS facing White & Henry.

 

[EBF]

EBF & F&L:Just to be clear, I'm not saying give up on White, or even Henry. I guess I was just trying to chime in that I would also extend that same 'don't totally write the guy off' philosophy to Chris Brown as well. It seemed that F&L was making a definitive 'not bloody likely' statement and I thought Brown likely has as good a shot to be productive (short term & long term) as either White or Henry.As I pointed out in my earlier post, Brown is a very cheap investment these days in dynasty (or at least was a month ago). I'm advocating not writing off his 4.8 ypc in 2004. I'm advocating that all his IFS (health, etc..) are no greater than the big IFS facing White & Henry.

I agree.

 

[King of the Jungle]

I think this guy stole your format:

Stuff

 

[gianmarco]

I think this guy stole your format:

Stuff

When I looked at that, it looked awfully familiar to something I had read somewhere else. But, it's the same guy. Not sure about the format or what not and what's going on, but the same article is here too:http://www.addictfantasysports.com/perspectives/article/1254

 

[Fear & Loathing]

I think this guy stole your format:

Stuff

Well, I don't like that.

 

[Biabreakable]

I think this guy stole your format:

Stuff

Well, I don't like that.

I don't like it either.Even though those numbers don't really mean a whole lot the guy should get his own ####e. Looks like lots of people been reading along here...

 

[Driver]

I think this guy stole your format:

Stuff

When I looked at that, it looked awfully familiar to something I had read somewhere else. But, it's the same guy. Not sure about the format or what not and what's going on, but the same article is here too:http://www.addictfantasysports.com/perspectives/article/1254

Whoa! Not cool ...

 

[Fear & Loathing]

I think this guy stole your format:

Stuff

When I looked at that, it looked awfully familiar to something I had read somewhere else. But, it's the same guy. Not sure about the format or what not and what's going on, but the same article is here too:http://www.addictfantasysports.com/perspectives/article/1254

Whoa! Not cool ...

 

[Biabreakable]

Composing email as we speak...

I did not take time to spell.

I could not help but notice the blatant plagarism in

the dynasty ranking you have posted on you website.

You have stolen the entire set of rankings from a

public message board found on footballguys.com these

rankings were created by a poster there called fear

and loathing and have time stamps to verify when they

were created.

The rankings you have posted on your site are blantant

plagarism of his posted there. You should be ashamed

of yourself.

I strongly recomend you remove these stolen rankings

from your site before more people with legal

connections find out about it. I realise your site

only probobly has 20 or so people that know of it but

this is no way to build a readership by stealing ideas

from others and calling them your own.

ETA- Only FBG staff has loose permission to steal ideas from the message board.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Composing email as we speak...

Appreciate it, Bia. Very much.Here's the one I just sentear Hacks,Next time you do an outright heist of somebody else's material, you ought to at least give them credit. As you well know, there are way too many similarities between your dynasty ranking system, and the one I've been using at the footballguys.com message boards (link here).No, there's not much recourse for action on my part. But I have worked for 10 years at a major law firm, so you should know that I will be at least checking out my options. As an anonymous poster on a message board, I'm sure my hands are pretty much tied on this issue. But it sucks that you 2nd-raters have pirated my hard work and intellectual property. This isn't something you can deny either. You didn't even bother to change the numbering system or even tweak something as small as where to put the tiers or using ages as of the beginning of the season. All you did was copy and paste and change the player comments, which are awfully similar to my own. And I thought Carson Daily sold his soul to the devil. In the future, I'd appreciate it if you would at least give me credit when you steal my material.Sincerely,Real Name Inserted Here

 

[King of the Jungle]

Justice served. They took them off the site.

Keep plugging away F&L.

Nice thread by the way.

 

[gianmarco]

It's still listed on the site I posted above. Same guy, too. I hope you wrote them at both spots.

http://www.addictfantasysports.com/perspectives/article/1254

 

[awesomeness]

loving the thread, goodwork

just a few things:

Medlock no longer has to deal with Tynes for the KC kicker position.

Dont know why you say Bryant on the Bucs has little kicking power, he hit a 62 yarder last year.

I see big things for kenton keith

 

[ILoveMyLions]

Justice served. They took them off the site. Keep plugging away F&L.Nice thread by the way.

The guys comes around here because I saw him put his link up at some point. I'm not sure on what post it was on but I"m positve I saw it on this board. Needless to say I'll never view it again.

 

[spec1alk]

It's still listed on the site I posted above. Same guy, too. I hope you wrote them at both spots.

http://www.addictfantasysports.com/perspectives/article/1254

I have a big problem with most of his RB rankings. T Jones not in the top 20? T Henry at #20? C'mon, I know its dynasty but this guy is WAAAY over-valuing youth.Btw, the citymax page appears to have been removed.

 

[FantasyTrader]

I just wanted to come on here and issue a public apology to Fear & Loathing. I'm getting bashed and deserve EVERY word of it. When I initially read his rankings I fell in love with the way he had everything laid out, especially the ages at the beginning of the season. With player ages being public knowledge and tiering of players not being something trend-setting by any means in the fantasy industry, in my feeble mind I remember thinking there was nothing wrong with using his format and changing player valuations to my liking. Now I realize that was just plain stupid of me. There is no percentage of someone else's original thought that is okay to re-create without their permission. So let the bashing continue, boy I do deserve it. F&L, please don't let my douchebaggary stand in the way of you continuing to post your rankings on here. People love them.

Rick Perkins.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

I'm getting bashed and deserve EVERY word of it.

So let the bashing continue, boy I do deserve it.

Rick Perkins.

Die in a fire! (but facing the fire and saying your apologies and admitting your guilt is a good step)

 

[gianmarco]

I just wanted to come on here and issue a public apology to Fear & Loathing. I'm getting bashed and deserve EVERY word of it. When I initially read his rankings I fell in love with the way he had everything laid out, especially the ages at the beginning of the season. With player ages being public knowledge and tiering of players not being something trend-setting by any means in the fantasy industry, in my feeble mind I remember thinking there was nothing wrong with using his format and changing player valuations to my liking. Now I realize that was just plain stupid of me. There is no percentage of someone else's original thought that is okay to re-create without their permission. So let the bashing continue, boy I do deserve it. F&L, please don't let my douchebaggary stand in the way of you continuing to post your rankings on here. People love them.

Rick Perkins.

That's nice and all, but you STILL have it posted at addictfantasysports and STILL have yet to either take it down or give credit. Hopefully that will be coming soon.I also think it would be nice since you put these up on pay sites and collected other people's money so they could read "your" thoughts to pass along at least some of the profits to F&L. I won't hold my breath.

 

[FantasyTrader]

The rankings being posted at A.F.S. is a bit stickier since I submitted it to them. I am hoping Fear & Loathing will just allow me a mulligan as far as that's concerned. The feedback received on that site was 16 people so I don't think very many people have viewed it in the several months it's been on there. But if F&L responds and says he wants me to, I will personally write them today and do everything in my power to have it removed.

Regarding me putting the material on pay sites that's just not true. I haven't collected any money for the article at all. If I did, at this point I would forward 100% of the profit to him.

 

[lions327]

The rankings being posted at A.F.S. is a bit stickier since I submitted it to them. I am hoping Fear & Loathing will just allow me a mulligan as far as that's concerned. The feedback received on that site was 16 people so I don't think very many people have viewed it in the several months it's been on there. But if F&L responds and says he wants me to, I will personally write them today and do everything in my power to have it removed.

Regarding me putting the material on pay sites that's just not true. I haven't collected any money for the article at all. If I did, at this point I would forward 100% of the profit to him.

You should be trying to get them removed without being asked. Period. I will give you credit for at least being man enough to admit a mistake and apologize.

 

[FantasyTrader]

So at this point, I'll PM F&L and deal with this situation with him directly. It occured to me (thank you to a fellow member for PMing me) that now, in an attempt to man up and take responsibility, I'm just hijacking a quality thread as well. So my no longer responding is not me ducking it's just me allowing this thread to get back to what it was intended to be about - F & L's rankings.

Thanks.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

So at this point, I'll PM F&L and deal with this situation with him directly. It occured to me (thank you to a fellow member for PMing me) that now, in an attempt to man up and take responsibility, I'm just hijacking a quality thread as well. So my no longer responding is not me ducking it's just me allowing this thread to get back to what it was intended to be about - F & L's rankings. Thanks.

Fantasy Trader (Rick) and I have chatted via email, and though I was extremely upset with his actions, I think he has handled himself well since I approached him with this issue. He has given me a very sincere apology and has made his regrets clear.I'd like to thank all of the guys who brought this to my attention and stuck up for me here. It's nice to know the work is appreciated.Unfortunately, this may signal a move to a more "protected" website where I can use my real name...whether it's a new dynasty only site or blogging or what not. I'll be sure to let everyone know if/when that does happen. It looks like Rotoworld.com is going to have me doing dynasty rankings starting in July, but that is going to be more of a simple list rather than writing intensive. I've never received a response from Joe & David after I've emailed them and followed up with a PM stating my interest in writing for FBG. That being the case, I'm led to believe they have no interest in using this work on their own website.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

loving the thread, goodwork just a few things:Medlock no longer has to deal with Tynes for the KC kicker position. Dont know why you say Bryant on the Bucs has little kicking power, he hit a 62 yarder last year.I see big things for kenton keith

Thanks awesomenessI hadn't adjusted the player comments since the last updates in early May, so that's why Tynes was still listed in Medlock's comment. I've made the change tonight to reflect Medlock's hold on the job. Re: Matt Bryant. I simply suggested he doesn't have the strongest of legs, which is evidenced by the fact the he's only hit two FGs over 50 yards in his career. Contrast that with somebody like Josh Brown who has been in the league about the same amount of time and has 10 FGs over 50 yards. Regardless of his leg strength, I don't think Bryant is a kicker anybody should be counting on in dynasty leagues. What's with the Kenton Keith love? What do you know about him that we should know?