Dynasty Rankings (9 Viewers)

[the_sig]

Jabar Gaffney

Any value there? I'm of the opinion his production in the last 5 games were an outlier, but at this point, his production has caught my attention (29 targets over the last 5 weeks, and 4 TD's in that span). I checked a few of my leagues, and he is on the wire....

My problem is that as I enter the off season, I don't really want to use any roster space on a guy like Gaffney, those spaces are being used for rookies I am rostering that I think may have more value down the road.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

Jabar Gaffney Any value there? I'm of the opinion his production in the last 5 games were an outlier, but at this point, his production has caught my attention (29 targets over the last 5 weeks, and 4 TD's in that span). I checked a few of my leagues, and he is on the wire....My problem is that as I enter the off season, I don't really want to use any roster space on a guy like Gaffney, those spaces are being used for rookies I am rostering that I think may have more value down the road.

Interesting question.Hard to spend too much on a 4th string wideout. But who knows what's up with Stallworth, and if Stallworth is gone, Gaffney could have some reasonable value as a true WR3 in that offense.But, like Stokely back in 2004, is Gaffney's production really just a function of a ridiculous offense and basically no one even trying to cover him because of a "pick your poison" scenario? Stokely (somewhat predictably) went from 1077 and 10 to 543 and 1 in one year.Don't know if I'd use a roster slot on him unless it's a pretty deep league.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Jabar Gaffney

Any value there? I'm of the opinion his production in the last 5 games were an outlier, but at this point, his production has caught my attention (29 targets over the last 5 weeks, and 4 TD's in that span). I checked a few of my leagues, and he is on the wire....

My problem is that as I enter the off season, I don't really want to use any roster space on a guy like Gaffney, those spaces are being used for rookies I am rostering that I think may have more value down the road.

Interesting question.Hard to spend too much on a 4th string wideout. But who knows what's up with Stallworth, and if Stallworth is gone, Gaffney could have some reasonable value as a true WR3 in that offense.

But, like Stokely back in 2004, is Gaffney's production really just a function of a ridiculous offense and basically no one even trying to cover him because of a "pick your poison" scenario? Stokely (somewhat predictably) went from 1077 and 10 to 543 and 1 in one year.

Don't know if I'd use a roster slot on him unless it's a pretty deep league.

I agree with this. He may be worth a flier, but I don't think he has much reliable value in dynasty leagues. Then again, it's pretty clear that Stallworth will not be back, so it may be Gaffney and Chad Jackson battling for production in the Pats offense next season. I'd rather roll the dice on Jackson's upside, but he's far from a sure thing to post better numbers than Gaffney the next two seasons.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Any softening of the valuation of Duckett based on this week? Granted, it was one game, but he has fairly consistently looked better thna Jones in games where they have both appeared this season.

Going into the last game, he has a 5.9 YPC compared to Jones' career typical 3.8. He breaks long ones occasionally (Jones doesn't). He basically just gave Detroit it's first win in 7 games. He's just a half year older than Jones.

You SURE you wouldn't rather take a shot on him at 26 than any of Tatum Bell (inactive again), Dom Rhodes (looked good last night, but 28 and will have to seriously compete for a job), JJ Arrington, Lamont Jordan (3rd string on his team right now, if that), Kenton Keith (good stats last night I admit), Jesse Chatman (28, maybe just passed by Booker for 2nd string), Tony Hunt (inactive again), or Reuben Droughns (3 carries, -5 yards, easily 3rd string in NY, 29 yeas old)?

Dude, it's T.J. Duckett.How many words are we going to waste arguing whether he should be placed above or below other turds?

It's the return of the Ron Dayne conversation...

 

[SSOG]

1) THanks for the heads-up on Robinson--I have given up on Jenkins and if Atlanta gets a QB, who knows?2) DA? I don't understand why you and Ssog seem to think he sucks so much. In fact, by SSog's rule (top 10 within first two years of starting) DA is the real deal because he is top 10 his first year.

I don't recall saying ANYTHING about Anderson, either positive or negative. Also, be sure to remember that while not finishing in the top 10 means you're almost certainly a bust, finishing in the top 10 does not necessarily make you "the real deal". Look at Eli Manning or Jon Kitna. Both of these guys hit the top 10 within 32 games, and neither's the kind of QB I'd want to base my fantasy franchise around. Hitting the top 10 means you have the possibility of becoming an every year starter, but it is by no means a certainty (or even possibly a likelihood).

 

[Fear & Loathing]

1) THanks for the heads-up on Robinson--I have given up on Jenkins and if Atlanta gets a QB, who knows?2) DA? I don't understand why you and Ssog seem to think he sucks so much. In fact, by SSog's rule (top 10 within first two years of starting) DA is the real deal because he is top 10 his first year.

I don't recall saying ANYTHING about Anderson, either positive or negative. Also, be sure to remember that while not finishing in the top 10 means you're almost certainly a bust, finishing in the top 10 does not necessarily make you "the real deal". Look at Eli Manning or Jon Kitna. Both of these guys hit the top 10 within 32 games, and neither's the kind of QB I'd want to base my fantasy franchise around. Hitting the top 10 means you have the possibility of becoming an every year starter, but it is by no means a certainty (or even possibly a likelihood).

I think he may have gotten you mixed up with the other whiz kid initial guy, namely EBF. Sometimes it's hard to keep initial guys straight...

 

[the_sig]

Jabar Gaffney

Any value there? I'm of the opinion his production in the last 5 games were an outlier, but at this point, his production has caught my attention (29 targets over the last 5 weeks, and 4 TD's in that span). I checked a few of my leagues, and he is on the wire....

My problem is that as I enter the off season, I don't really want to use any roster space on a guy like Gaffney, those spaces are being used for rookies I am rostering that I think may have more value down the road.

Interesting question.Hard to spend too much on a 4th string wideout. But who knows what's up with Stallworth, and if Stallworth is gone, Gaffney could have some reasonable value as a true WR3 in that offense.

But, like Stokely back in 2004, is Gaffney's production really just a function of a ridiculous offense and basically no one even trying to cover him because of a "pick your poison" scenario? Stokely (somewhat predictably) went from 1077 and 10 to 543 and 1 in one year.

Don't know if I'd use a roster slot on him unless it's a pretty deep league.

I agree with this. He may be worth a flier, but I don't think he has much reliable value in dynasty leagues. Then again, it's pretty clear that Stallworth will not be back, so it may be Gaffney and Chad Jackson battling for production in the Pats offense next season. I'd rather roll the dice on Jackson's upside, but he's far from a sure thing to post better numbers than Gaffney the next two seasons.

Thanks for the thoughts F&L and Schneikes. I too realize Gaffney's value is a function of his situation, not any supreme talent of his. However, his sick TD catch yesterday just caught my attention, which prompted me to dig a bit and see his last 5 games have been reasonable. I was not considering targeting Gaffney in a trade, but figued I'd throw his name out to see what folks thought as he appears to be low risk (free/ww) in most of my leagues. (Not even ranked on F&L's list)

 

[Fear & Loathing]

(Not even ranked on F&L's list)

He should be on there. He's definitely slipped through the cracks, but since he's basically usurped Stallworth's role, he should be on there. I'll fix it.

 

[Homer]

Mike Shanahan should hire me as his assistant motivator! Worked for Vernon Davis!

 

[Holy Schneikes]

Any softening of the valuation of Duckett based on this week? Granted, it was one game, but he has fairly consistently looked better thna Jones in games where they have both appeared this season.

Going into the last game, he has a 5.9 YPC compared to Jones' career typical 3.8. He breaks long ones occasionally (Jones doesn't). He basically just gave Detroit it's first win in 7 games. He's just a half year older than Jones.

You SURE you wouldn't rather take a shot on him at 26 than any of Tatum Bell (inactive again), Dom Rhodes (looked good last night, but 28 and will have to seriously compete for a job), JJ Arrington, Lamont Jordan (3rd string on his team right now, if that), Kenton Keith (good stats last night I admit), Jesse Chatman (28, maybe just passed by Booker for 2nd string), Tony Hunt (inactive again), or Reuben Droughns (3 carries, -5 yards, easily 3rd string in NY, 29 yeas old)?

Dude, it's T.J. Duckett.How many words are we going to waste arguing whether he should be placed above or below other turds?

It's the return of the Ron Dayne conversation...

Doesn't seem like a waste to me. Bottom of the roster moves are as interesting to me as debating between the #5 and #6 RB. These guys win leagues sometimes. There are a lot of RBs in the top 30 this year that were once VERY low on the old "dynasty rankings" charts. Who was Ernest Graham? You know, the top 10 RB? Who was Derek Anderson?If the relative rankings of the guys at the bottom don't matter to you, why list them? Cut it off at tier 5 if you don't want to waste time talking about tier 6. Or, if you feel all of the "turds" are the same, give them all the same value and put them all in the same tier. Until I see that, I'm just going to assume the rankings are something you'd like to discuss on the old discussion board. Right now, it just seems like you are bitter that someone is challenging your rankings (which from previous discussions, doesn't seem like it would be the case).

That 26 year old, former 1st round NFL draft pick, 250 pound turd who has 36 career TDs, just had a great game, and COULD be a starting candidate for 2008. If that isn't worth discussing for a guy who has a "value" of ONE on a dynasty list, I don't know what is. Maybe I AM in the wrong place.

 

[az_prof]

It was EBF: my apologies. Your point is well taken; but when I compare a guy who HAS been top ten, like DA, he is far more proven than a guy like Quinn who hasn't gotten off the bench. We all know the odds against a QB become a stud and one who hasn't done anything except get drafted is a bigger risk than one who in his one year of starting has done pretty darn well.

1) THanks for the heads-up on Robinson--I have given up on Jenkins and if Atlanta gets a QB, who knows?2) DA? I don't understand why you and Ssog seem to think he sucks so much. In fact, by SSog's rule (top 10 within first two years of starting) DA is the real deal because he is top 10 his first year.

I don't recall saying ANYTHING about Anderson, either positive or negative. Also, be sure to remember that while not finishing in the top 10 means you're almost certainly a bust, finishing in the top 10 does not necessarily make you "the real deal". Look at Eli Manning or Jon Kitna. Both of these guys hit the top 10 within 32 games, and neither's the kind of QB I'd want to base my fantasy franchise around. Hitting the top 10 means you have the possibility of becoming an every year starter, but it is by no means a certainty (or even possibly a likelihood).

I think he may have gotten you mixed up with the other whiz kid initial guy, namely EBF. Sometimes it's hard to keep initial guys straight...

 

[az_prof]

I think Duckett is worth discussing, but then I was a Dayne proponent too (and if you had Dayne in your dynasty the past two years he DID help your team out). I don't see Duckett as being as good as Jones--that's simply foolish nor do I see Duckett with value beyond next year. Duckett has bounced around the league for a reason and was pretty much given the chance to take the Washington job and couldn't do it. That being said, if KJ is out for much of next year I could see Detroit keeping Duckett around. I don't think he holds value to most owners but he might hold value if you are a KJ owner. I am thinking about making room for him in my 22 player roster where I own KJ.

Any softening of the valuation of Duckett based on this week? Granted, it was one game, but he has fairly consistently looked better thna Jones in games where they have both appeared this season.

Going into the last game, he has a 5.9 YPC compared to Jones' career typical 3.8. He breaks long ones occasionally (Jones doesn't). He basically just gave Detroit it's first win in 7 games. He's just a half year older than Jones.

You SURE you wouldn't rather take a shot on him at 26 than any of Tatum Bell (inactive again), Dom Rhodes (looked good last night, but 28 and will have to seriously compete for a job), JJ Arrington, Lamont Jordan (3rd string on his team right now, if that), Kenton Keith (good stats last night I admit), Jesse Chatman (28, maybe just passed by Booker for 2nd string), Tony Hunt (inactive again), or Reuben Droughns (3 carries, -5 yards, easily 3rd string in NY, 29 yeas old)?

Dude, it's T.J. Duckett.How many words are we going to waste arguing whether he should be placed above or below other turds?

It's the return of the Ron Dayne conversation...

Doesn't seem like a waste to me. Bottom of the roster moves are as interesting to me as debating between the #5 and #6 RB. These guys win leagues sometimes. There are a lot of RBs in the top 30 this year that were once VERY low on the old "dynasty rankings" charts. Who was Ernest Graham? You know, the top 10 RB? Who was Derek Anderson?If the relative rankings of the guys at the bottom don't matter to you, why list them? Cut it off at tier 5 if you don't want to waste time talking about tier 6. Or, if you feel all of the "turds" are the same, give them all the same value and put them all in the same tier. Until I see that, I'm just going to assume the rankings are something you'd like to discuss on the old discussion board. Right now, it just seems like you are bitter that someone is challenging your rankings (which from previous discussions, doesn't seem like it would be the case).

That 26 year old, former 1st round NFL draft pick, 250 pound turd who has 36 career TDs, just had a great game, and COULD be a starting candidate for 2008. If that isn't worth discussing for a guy who has a "value" of ONE on a dynasty list, I don't know what is. Maybe I AM in the wrong place.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Doesn't seem like a waste to me. Bottom of the roster moves are as interesting to me as debating between the #5 and #6 RB. These guys win leagues sometimes. There are a lot of RBs in the top 30 this year that were once VERY low on the old "dynasty rankings" charts. Who was Ernest Graham? You know, the top 10 RB? Who was Derek Anderson?If the relative rankings of the guys at the bottom don't matter to you, why list them? Cut it off at tier 5 if you don't want to waste time talking about tier 6. Or, if you feel all of the "turds" are the same, give them all the same value and put them all in the same tier. Until I see that, I'm just going to assume the rankings are something you'd like to discuss on the old discussion board. Right now, it just seems like you are bitter that someone is challenging your rankings (which from previous discussions, doesn't seem like it would be the case).That 26 year old, former 1st round NFL draft pick, 250 pound turd who has 36 career TDs, just had a great game, and COULD be a starting candidate for 2008. If that isn't worth discussing for a guy who has a "value" of ONE on a dynasty list, I don't know what is. Maybe I AM in the wrong place.

Give me a break with this nonsense.Please check posts #1628-#1630 from all of three days ago where we did, in fact, discuss T.J. Duckett. I'm not bitter at all about someone "challenging" a ranking. It's like the John Beck conversation that went on too long. I discussed it, and I gave my reasons. All I'd be doing now is repeating myself over and over again. How fun is that?

 

[Holy Schneikes]

I think Duckett is worth discussing, but then I was a Dayne proponent too (and if you had Dayne in your dynasty the past two years he DID help your team out). I don't see Duckett as being as good as Jones--that's simply foolish nor do I see Duckett with value beyond next year. Duckett has bounced around the league for a reason and was pretty much given the chance to take the Washington job and couldn't do it. That being said, if KJ is out for much of next year I could see Detroit keeping Duckett around. I don't think he holds value to most owners but he might hold value if you are a KJ owner. I am thinking about making room for him in my 22 player roster where I own KJ.

Any softening of the valuation of Duckett based on this week? Granted, it was one game, but he has fairly consistently looked better thna Jones in games where they have both appeared this season.

Going into the last game, he has a 5.9 YPC compared to Jones' career typical 3.8. He breaks long ones occasionally (Jones doesn't). He basically just gave Detroit it's first win in 7 games. He's just a half year older than Jones.

You SURE you wouldn't rather take a shot on him at 26 than any of Tatum Bell (inactive again), Dom Rhodes (looked good last night, but 28 and will have to seriously compete for a job), JJ Arrington, Lamont Jordan (3rd string on his team right now, if that), Kenton Keith (good stats last night I admit), Jesse Chatman (28, maybe just passed by Booker for 2nd string), Tony Hunt (inactive again), or Reuben Droughns (3 carries, -5 yards, easily 3rd string in NY, 29 yeas old)?

Dude, it's T.J. Duckett.How many words are we going to waste arguing whether he should be placed above or below other turds?

It's the return of the Ron Dayne conversation...

Doesn't seem like a waste to me. Bottom of the roster moves are as interesting to me as debating between the #5 and #6 RB. These guys win leagues sometimes. There are a lot of RBs in the top 30 this year that were once VERY low on the old "dynasty rankings" charts. Who was Ernest Graham? You know, the top 10 RB? Who was Derek Anderson?If the relative rankings of the guys at the bottom don't matter to you, why list them? Cut it off at tier 5 if you don't want to waste time talking about tier 6. Or, if you feel all of the "turds" are the same, give them all the same value and put them all in the same tier. Until I see that, I'm just going to assume the rankings are something you'd like to discuss on the old discussion board. Right now, it just seems like you are bitter that someone is challenging your rankings (which from previous discussions, doesn't seem like it would be the case).

That 26 year old, former 1st round NFL draft pick, 250 pound turd who has 36 career TDs, just had a great game, and COULD be a starting candidate for 2008. If that isn't worth discussing for a guy who has a "value" of ONE on a dynasty list, I don't know what is. Maybe I AM in the wrong place.

Not sure I get the Washington thing. He was traded to Washington at the end of pre-season (no camp or pre-season games) to a team with an Al Saunders offense (tough for RBs). The team thought Portis was going to be out for a while and he ended up starting game #1. Betts was a solid and already established backup who knew the offense. Not exactly what I'd call given a chance to take the job.He's been on three teams now Falcons, Washington and Detroit. Not ideal, but not horrible. He looked great in 2003 and 2004 in Atlanta (running in a RBBC with Dunn), then had a bad year in 05 and got traded in 06. It's not like the guy has been a bum and been released from 3 or 4 teams. He's never been released. He was traded once and then his contract expired with the Skins who didn't need him (Portis) and he signed a one year deal with Detroit.

As for Duckett vs Jones, I just don't get why people are STILL convinced Jones is an ultra-talented running back.

Duckett, for his career has a 4.1 average which is not bad at all considering a good portion of his carries came in short yardage situations. Jones' career average is 4.0, and hasn't been higher than 3.8 in the past three years.

Duckett has 36 TDs in 6 years but basically sat one whole year in Washington. Jones has STARTED 49 games (about 5x as many as TJ) and has 24 career TDs.

Basically, Jones had a great rookie year and not much since. He's not really a speed runner, he's not particularly elusive, and he's not particularly powerful (though he has looked a LITTLE better this year in that area). Since Duckett got healthy in Detroit, you'd be hard pressed to say Jones has looked better than Duckett in any facet of the game.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

Doesn't seem like a waste to me. Bottom of the roster moves are as interesting to me as debating between the #5 and #6 RB. These guys win leagues sometimes. There are a lot of RBs in the top 30 this year that were once VERY low on the old "dynasty rankings" charts. Who was Ernest Graham? You know, the top 10 RB? Who was Derek Anderson?If the relative rankings of the guys at the bottom don't matter to you, why list them? Cut it off at tier 5 if you don't want to waste time talking about tier 6. Or, if you feel all of the "turds" are the same, give them all the same value and put them all in the same tier. Until I see that, I'm just going to assume the rankings are something you'd like to discuss on the old discussion board. Right now, it just seems like you are bitter that someone is challenging your rankings (which from previous discussions, doesn't seem like it would be the case).That 26 year old, former 1st round NFL draft pick, 250 pound turd who has 36 career TDs, just had a great game, and COULD be a starting candidate for 2008. If that isn't worth discussing for a guy who has a "value" of ONE on a dynasty list, I don't know what is. Maybe I AM in the wrong place.

Give me a break with this nonsense.Please check posts #1628-#1630 from all of three days ago where we did, in fact, discuss T.J. Duckett. I'm not bitter at all about someone "challenging" a ranking. It's like the John Beck conversation that went on too long. I discussed it, and I gave my reasons. All I'd be doing now is repeating myself over and over again. How fun is that?

You're right. A dynasty ranking list should be totally stagnant and new developments should not be discussed (good games, potentially serious injuries to current starters, etc). The John Beck thing had a natural end (when they stopped playing him LOL), but I didn't think that was "too long" either. Pretty much EVERY player on the list has been discussed at length at this point.But no problem, I won't pollute your thread any more with ridiculous discussion of turds. I wasn't aware of the three post limit. I'll leave you to more important matters. Not sure what those are in a dynasty ranking thread (Manning vs Brady perhaps?), but I'll leave you to them.

 

[Ksquared]

F & L, after having spent much of the last few months lurking on this thread, I wanted to express my appreciation for your effort. You and the others that have discussed many of their strategies and player outlooks from a dynasty perspective have been awesome.

Holy S, you need to back off and relax. Several times this thread has gotten bogged down for pages on end with someone trying to persuade F & L or another responder on how they are wrong about a specific player. One of the points I have realized is marginal players are not going to make a difference for a Championship team 99% of the time. You have good insight, so keep expressing your opinion, but don't get upset if others don't change their viewpoint.

 

[gheemony]

Jabar Gaffney Any value there? I'm of the opinion his production in the last 5 games were an outlier, but at this point, his production has caught my attention (29 targets over the last 5 weeks, and 4 TD's in that span). I checked a few of my leagues, and he is on the wire....My problem is that as I enter the off season, I don't really want to use any roster space on a guy like Gaffney, those spaces are being used for rookies I am rostering that I think may have more value down the road.

Interesting question.Hard to spend too much on a 4th string wideout. But who knows what's up with Stallworth, and if Stallworth is gone, Gaffney could have some reasonable value as a true WR3 in that offense.But, like Stokely back in 2004, is Gaffney's production really just a function of a ridiculous offense and basically no one even trying to cover him because of a "pick your poison" scenario? Stokely (somewhat predictably) went from 1077 and 10 to 543 and 1 in one year.Don't know if I'd use a roster slot on him unless it's a pretty deep league.

I think this question is better asked of Wes Welker. Love the guy and his role on the team, but I don't have him as highly ranked as F&L. See Troy Brown, Brandon Stokely, Az Hakim. Brady's TDs will regress to the mean. And even if that means 30 TDs, Welker is going to see a drop. Welker is a great WR2 in PPR, but I think he's a WR3 at best in non-PPR. He's killed fantasy teams in the fantasy playoffs because the TDs have been going Gaffney and to Maroney. Welker is a great replacement for the running game when the weather is good. A vital role for an NFL team, but not a fantasy team.Would love to hear more discussion about Welker's value.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

From the Kevin Jones thread, in case you haven't seen this:

Kevin Jones might require surgeryby Tom KowalskiMonday December 24, 2007, 12:59 PMRunning back Kevin Jones suffered an injury to the anterior cruciate ligament of his right knee and might require surgery. Jones suffered the injury late in the first half of Detroit's 25-20 victory over the Kansas Chiefs on Sunday.Lions head coach Rod Marinelli said Monday that a final decision won't be made until the swelling goes down in Jones' knee. Marinelli also said that he doesn't know if Jones suffered a partial tear or a complete tear.If Jones undergoes surgery to repair the ACL, he would likely miss the beginning of training camp next season but could be ready for the start of the regular season. Jones missed all of camp and preseason this season because he was recovering from the Lisfranc surgery he had on his left foot last December.

 

[EBF]

It was EBF: my apologies. Your point is well taken; but when I compare a guy who HAS been top ten, like DA, he is far more proven than a guy like Quinn who hasn't gotten off the bench. We all know the odds against a QB become a stud and one who hasn't done anything except get drafted is a bigger risk than one who in his one year of starting has done pretty darn well.

I have never said Brady Quinn is better than Derek Anderson. Never. All I've said is that Quinn is a good buy low and Anderson is a good sell high. That's not the same thing as saying Quinn is better than Anderson. However, Quinn MIGHT be better. We don't know yet. Anderson will probably finish the season ranked as a top 10 dynasty QB. The guys ahead of him are named Brady, Romo, Manning, Palmer, Roethlisberger, Brees, and Hasselbeck. I find it highly unlikely that he'll ever leapfrog those guys. On the flipside, I could see him tumble down the rankings a bit. I would probably rather have Bulger, McNabb, and Cutler. I'm not sure he's any better than Schaub. He just has better numbers since he's thrown more. Basically, I think it's more likely that Derek Anderson fades in the rankings than it is that he rises. He really hasn't been THAT good this season. His QB rating is a very mediocre 82.7 (comparable to that of Kitna, Rivers, and Palmer). He and Eli Manning have the worst completion percentages of any top 15 yardage QB (56.6% and 55.3% respectively). The next lowest guy is over 60%. Anderson has had a mediocre NFL season that's been masked by his surprise top 10 FF status and the surprise success of the Browns. Unless he steps up his game over the next year or two, I'd look for him to eventually regress into a weak QB1 or even a QB2 for FF purposes. I don't think the Delhomme comparison is far off. Both guys are good enough to keep a starting job in the league, yet neither guy is a player you really want leading your NFL or FF team.

 

[EBF]

I think Duckett is worth discussing, but then I was a Dayne proponent too (and if you had Dayne in your dynasty the past two years he DID help your team out). I don't see Duckett as being as good as Jones--that's simply foolish nor do I see Duckett with value beyond next year. Duckett has bounced around the league for a reason and was pretty much given the chance to take the Washington job and couldn't do it. That being said, if KJ is out for much of next year I could see Detroit keeping Duckett around. I don't think he holds value to most owners but he might hold value if you are a KJ owner. I am thinking about making room for him in my 22 player roster where I own KJ.

Any softening of the valuation of Duckett based on this week? Granted, it was one game, but he has fairly consistently looked better thna Jones in games where they have both appeared this season.

Going into the last game, he has a 5.9 YPC compared to Jones' career typical 3.8. He breaks long ones occasionally (Jones doesn't). He basically just gave Detroit it's first win in 7 games. He's just a half year older than Jones.

You SURE you wouldn't rather take a shot on him at 26 than any of Tatum Bell (inactive again), Dom Rhodes (looked good last night, but 28 and will have to seriously compete for a job), JJ Arrington, Lamont Jordan (3rd string on his team right now, if that), Kenton Keith (good stats last night I admit), Jesse Chatman (28, maybe just passed by Booker for 2nd string), Tony Hunt (inactive again), or Reuben Droughns (3 carries, -5 yards, easily 3rd string in NY, 29 yeas old)?

Dude, it's T.J. Duckett.How many words are we going to waste arguing whether he should be placed above or below other turds?

It's the return of the Ron Dayne conversation...

Doesn't seem like a waste to me. Bottom of the roster moves are as interesting to me as debating between the #5 and #6 RB. These guys win leagues sometimes. There are a lot of RBs in the top 30 this year that were once VERY low on the old "dynasty rankings" charts. Who was Ernest Graham? You know, the top 10 RB? Who was Derek Anderson?If the relative rankings of the guys at the bottom don't matter to you, why list them? Cut it off at tier 5 if you don't want to waste time talking about tier 6. Or, if you feel all of the "turds" are the same, give them all the same value and put them all in the same tier. Until I see that, I'm just going to assume the rankings are something you'd like to discuss on the old discussion board. Right now, it just seems like you are bitter that someone is challenging your rankings (which from previous discussions, doesn't seem like it would be the case).

That 26 year old, former 1st round NFL draft pick, 250 pound turd who has 36 career TDs, just had a great game, and COULD be a starting candidate for 2008. If that isn't worth discussing for a guy who has a "value" of ONE on a dynasty list, I don't know what is. Maybe I AM in the wrong place.

Not sure I get the Washington thing. He was traded to Washington at the end of pre-season (no camp or pre-season games) to a team with an Al Saunders offense (tough for RBs). The team thought Portis was going to be out for a while and he ended up starting game #1. Betts was a solid and already established backup who knew the offense. Not exactly what I'd call given a chance to take the job.He's been on three teams now Falcons, Washington and Detroit. Not ideal, but not horrible. He looked great in 2003 and 2004 in Atlanta (running in a RBBC with Dunn), then had a bad year in 05 and got traded in 06. It's not like the guy has been a bum and been released from 3 or 4 teams. He's never been released. He was traded once and then his contract expired with the Skins who didn't need him (Portis) and he signed a one year deal with Detroit.

As for Duckett vs Jones, I just don't get why people are STILL convinced Jones is an ultra-talented running back.

Duckett, for his career has a 4.1 average which is not bad at all considering a good portion of his carries came in short yardage situations. Jones' career average is 4.0, and hasn't been higher than 3.8 in the past three years.

Duckett has 36 TDs in 6 years but basically sat one whole year in Washington. Jones has STARTED 49 games (about 5x as many as TJ) and has 24 career TDs.

Basically, Jones had a great rookie year and not much since. He's not really a speed runner, he's not particularly elusive, and he's not particularly powerful (though he has looked a LITTLE better this year in that area). Since Duckett got healthy in Detroit, you'd be hard pressed to say Jones has looked better than Duckett in any facet of the game.

If TJ Duckett was a starting caliber NFL RB then I think he would've proven it by now. The fact that he's been with three teams and never earned a starting job is fairly telling IMO. I guess there's always a chance that he goes Thomas Jones on us, but I've personally never been impressed with him and I don't think his game really suggests a future as an NFL starter. He is not a special talent and does not have the special physical skills of a guy like TJ or Fargas.

 

[FavreCo]

I believe it's time to move Laurent Robinson into tier 4-5. No idea why Ginn is there and Robinson isn't. Got news for ya all. Robinson is far better as a WR. To top it off, Miami has no QB and ATL is going to draft one while Parcells figures out how to make repairs.

 

[The Man Who Met Andy Griffith]

Jabar Gaffney Any value there? I'm of the opinion his production in the last 5 games were an outlier, but at this point, his production has caught my attention (29 targets over the last 5 weeks, and 4 TD's in that span). I checked a few of my leagues, and he is on the wire....My problem is that as I enter the off season, I don't really want to use any roster space on a guy like Gaffney, those spaces are being used for rookies I am rostering that I think may have more value down the road.

Interesting question.Hard to spend too much on a 4th string wideout. But who knows what's up with Stallworth, and if Stallworth is gone, Gaffney could have some reasonable value as a true WR3 in that offense.But, like Stokely back in 2004, is Gaffney's production really just a function of a ridiculous offense and basically no one even trying to cover him because of a "pick your poison" scenario? Stokely (somewhat predictably) went from 1077 and 10 to 543 and 1 in one year.Don't know if I'd use a roster slot on him unless it's a pretty deep league.

I think this question is better asked of Wes Welker. Love the guy and his role on the team, but I don't have him as highly ranked as F&L. See Troy Brown, Brandon Stokely, Az Hakim. Brady's TDs will regress to the mean. And even if that means 30 TDs, Welker is going to see a drop. Welker is a great WR2 in PPR, but I think he's a WR3 at best in non-PPR. He's killed fantasy teams in the fantasy playoffs because the TDs have been going Gaffney and to Maroney. Welker is a great replacement for the running game when the weather is good. A vital role for an NFL team, but not a fantasy team.Would love to hear more discussion about Welker's value.

Stokley & Az Hakim were WR3s, which Welker is not. The Patriots offense and QB ability are much improved from when Troy Brown was in his prime.I do expect the Pats offense to regress, and Welker will probably regress as well, but to be clear: he just turned 26, he finished as WR10 (WR8 in PPR) and he's ranked as WR22. The only players below him that could arguably be in the same value tier IMO are J Walker, A Gonzalez, D Driver and J Cotchery.

 

[The Man Who Met Andy Griffith]

I believe it's time to move Laurent Robinson into tier 4-5. No idea why Ginn is there and Robinson isn't. Got news for ya all. Robinson is far better as a WR. To top it off, Miami has no QB and ATL is going to draft one while Parcells figures out how to make repairs.

Would have been nice to have heard this before Robinson's big game, but yes I believe Robinson will be moved up shortly based on potential.

 

[gheemony]

Jabar Gaffney Any value there? I'm of the opinion his production in the last 5 games were an outlier, but at this point, his production has caught my attention (29 targets over the last 5 weeks, and 4 TD's in that span). I checked a few of my leagues, and he is on the wire....My problem is that as I enter the off season, I don't really want to use any roster space on a guy like Gaffney, those spaces are being used for rookies I am rostering that I think may have more value down the road.

Interesting question.Hard to spend too much on a 4th string wideout. But who knows what's up with Stallworth, and if Stallworth is gone, Gaffney could have some reasonable value as a true WR3 in that offense.But, like Stokely back in 2004, is Gaffney's production really just a function of a ridiculous offense and basically no one even trying to cover him because of a "pick your poison" scenario? Stokely (somewhat predictably) went from 1077 and 10 to 543 and 1 in one year.Don't know if I'd use a roster slot on him unless it's a pretty deep league.

I think this question is better asked of Wes Welker. Love the guy and his role on the team, but I don't have him as highly ranked as F&L. See Troy Brown, Brandon Stokely, Az Hakim. Brady's TDs will regress to the mean. And even if that means 30 TDs, Welker is going to see a drop. Welker is a great WR2 in PPR, but I think he's a WR3 at best in non-PPR. He's killed fantasy teams in the fantasy playoffs because the TDs have been going Gaffney and to Maroney. Welker is a great replacement for the running game when the weather is good. A vital role for an NFL team, but not a fantasy team.Would love to hear more discussion about Welker's value.

Stokley & Az Hakim were WR3s, which Welker is not. The Patriots offense and QB ability are much improved from when Troy Brown was in his prime.I do expect the Pats offense to regress, and Welker will probably regress as well, but to be clear: he just turned 26, he finished as WR10 (WR8 in PPR) and he's ranked as WR22. The only players below him that could arguably be in the same value tier IMO are J Walker, A Gonzalez, D Driver and J Cotchery.

I think WR2/WR3 is misleading. Welker is the slot WR just like Stokely and Hakim. Welker's (very important) job is to move the chains and be an outlet. He's not a redzone threat. But when the team is throwing for 50 QBs, the slot WR is bound to catch a few. Assuming Welker ends up with 20% of TDs this year and keeps that up next year, he drops to 6 TDs )if Brady throws for 30). Knocking off 4 TDs is 24 points. In most leagues, that is about 12 spots. But I haven't even knocked off yards yet. Stokley dropped his yards in half.So maybe WR22 is right for him, but I see him as someone with a low ceiling. That may be reason to rank him lower if your strategy is to find a future WR1. But if you want a solid WR2/3 with a low floor, then WR22 makes sense. I just think the folks reading this thread are the type that can find a WR3 on the wire during the season and use their roster spots to hold guys with big upside.So depends on what type of value you're looking for. I am likely to keep Holt, Holmes, and Marshall. I can keep Welker, but a expensive price (salary cap league). I may not do it because Welker may never crack the lineup in front of those three and I would rather use the cap space on a WR that can blossom and take over for Holt as he ages or use the cap space on a different position.This is a good discussion. I'll want to come back to Welker in the non-playing season.

 

[benm3218]

I was lucky enough to get a free ticket to the Titans game last night. About 10 rows up on the Titans bench side at the 40 yard line. Best seats I have ever had.

Things look totally different live when you can see all the coverages and things you miss on TV.

Cotchery was outstanding. He was always open and made some really great catches too. Plus, it was Chad Pennington throwing who had trouble completing anything over 20 yards last night.

I think Cotchery warrants being a bit higher. Just a bit. I know its nitpicky, but I'd rather have Cotchery than Marvin H, Santana Moss, Hines Ward, and Wes Welker right now. Cotchery is younger and very talented. I see him as a WR1 where I don't see Welker as more than WR2 or3. I see Cotchery as better than Ward, due to age, the way he is used, the way he has produced even in a bad situation. Ward has a top 3 QB throwing to him, what would Cotchery be with that?

I think Cotch should be at the top of Tier 4 or bottom of 3 even.

Just my two cents, and I know what I saw at the game looked different than it did on TV, but every time a good catch that was made we all knew it would be Cotchery's name called...

 

[gianmarco]

I was lucky enough to get a free ticket to the Titans game last night. About 10 rows up on the Titans bench side at the 40 yard line. Best seats I have ever had. Things look totally different live when you can see all the coverages and things you miss on TV.Cotchery was outstanding. He was always open and made some really great catches too. Plus, it was Chad Pennington throwing who had trouble completing anything over 20 yards last night. I think Cotchery warrants being a bit higher. Just a bit. I know its nitpicky, but I'd rather have Cotchery than Marvin H, Santana Moss, Hines Ward, and Wes Welker right now. Cotchery is younger and very talented. I see him as a WR1 where I don't see Welker as more than WR2 or3. I see Cotchery as better than Ward, due to age, the way he is used, the way he has produced even in a bad situation. Ward has a top 3 QB throwing to him, what would Cotchery be with that? I think Cotch should be at the top of Tier 4 or bottom of 3 even.Just my two cents, and I know what I saw at the game looked different than it did on TV, but every time a good catch that was made we all knew it would be Cotchery's name called...

Ahh, someone else who sees what I see I think Cotchery is a guy that has the potential to move up significantly, which is one of the biggest reasons I'm high on him. His TD #'s are low this year, but his catches and yardage have remained consistently good 2 yrs in a row with garbage at the QB position (as well as instability and repeated switching back and forth).What I like about him is:1. Big physical WR that also runs good routes2. Is a big possession WR, but has the ability to stretch the field3. Seems to be targeted a lot on 3rd downs and late in games. This is the sign of a WR that is dependable and who a QB seems to trust. This is no surprise as he's able to make difficult catches and has great hands.4. He is 14th in the league in receiving yds despite missing one game.5. With the exception of 3 games (one vs. Pitt, another where he was injured, and another with 4 catches), he has 5+ receptions in every other game this year.Overall, he just has very little downside to me (should be a solid #2-#3 fantasy WR) with the potential to be a #1 WR, esp. in PPR leagues.I know there are guys like Lee Evans or Javon Walker that we like to talk about how talented they are and how elite they could be, but at the same time, their "bust" potential has to be considered. I'm not saying Cotchery is in the same ranking as them, but he is definitely a commodity that you should be able to get cheaply and should give you good returns for some time. If his TD totals increase, he can easily make the jump into the top 2 tiers.

 

[stevegamer]

Jabar Gaffney Any value there? I'm of the opinion his production in the last 5 games were an outlier, but at this point, his production has caught my attention (29 targets over the last 5 weeks, and 4 TD's in that span). I checked a few of my leagues, and he is on the wire....My problem is that as I enter the off season, I don't really want to use any roster space on a guy like Gaffney, those spaces are being used for rookies I am rostering that I think may have more value down the road.

Interesting question.Hard to spend too much on a 4th string wideout. But who knows what's up with Stallworth, and if Stallworth is gone, Gaffney could have some reasonable value as a true WR3 in that offense.But, like Stokely back in 2004, is Gaffney's production really just a function of a ridiculous offense and basically no one even trying to cover him because of a "pick your poison" scenario? Stokely (somewhat predictably) went from 1077 and 10 to 543 and 1 in one year.Don't know if I'd use a roster slot on him unless it's a pretty deep league.

I think this question is better asked of Wes Welker. Love the guy and his role on the team, but I don't have him as highly ranked as F&L. See Troy Brown, Brandon Stokely, Az Hakim. Brady's TDs will regress to the mean. And even if that means 30 TDs, Welker is going to see a drop. Welker is a great WR2 in PPR, but I think he's a WR3 at best in non-PPR. He's killed fantasy teams in the fantasy playoffs because the TDs have been going Gaffney and to Maroney. Welker is a great replacement for the running game when the weather is good. A vital role for an NFL team, but not a fantasy team.Would love to hear more discussion about Welker's value.

Stokley & Az Hakim were WR3s, which Welker is not. The Patriots offense and QB ability are much improved from when Troy Brown was in his prime.I do expect the Pats offense to regress, and Welker will probably regress as well, but to be clear: he just turned 26, he finished as WR10 (WR8 in PPR) and he's ranked as WR22. The only players below him that could arguably be in the same value tier IMO are J Walker, A Gonzalez, D Driver and J Cotchery.

I think WR2/WR3 is misleading. Welker is the slot WR just like Stokely and Hakim. Welker's (very important) job is to move the chains and be an outlet. He's not a redzone threat. But when the team is throwing for 50 QBs, the slot WR is bound to catch a few. Assuming Welker ends up with 20% of TDs this year and keeps that up next year, he drops to 6 TDs )if Brady throws for 30). Knocking off 4 TDs is 24 points. In most leagues, that is about 12 spots. But I haven't even knocked off yards yet. Stokley dropped his yards in half.So maybe WR22 is right for him, but I see him as someone with a low ceiling. That may be reason to rank him lower if your strategy is to find a future WR1. But if you want a solid WR2/3 with a low floor, then WR22 makes sense. I just think the folks reading this thread are the type that can find a WR3 on the wire during the season and use their roster spots to hold guys with big upside.So depends on what type of value you're looking for. I am likely to keep Holt, Holmes, and Marshall. I can keep Welker, but a expensive price (salary cap league). I may not do it because Welker may never crack the lineup in front of those three and I would rather use the cap space on a WR that can blossom and take over for Holt as he ages or use the cap space on a different position.This is a good discussion. I'll want to come back to Welker in the non-playing season.

I think Welker is really the #2 WR in NE - he just plays int he slot anytime they go 3+WR, which is often. Moss is a bit unusual in that he's never been much of a short threat - even Owens, Holt, etc, have teneded to rack up YAC after short balls in addition to going deep. Moss is much better on mid-deep routes, which means you need a different type of #2 - more of an underneath guy with good hands. I think Welker probably could play outside as a #2WR fairly well (note Curtis in Philly this year) but he's going to catch a lot of balls to move the sticks. I agree that his ceiling is porbably not a top-5 WR, but he could be in the 10-15 range fairly consistently, I think. A lot depends on whether Moss returns.

 

[Ted Lange as your Bartender]

Is it time to take a hard look at dropping Chad Johnson from the elite tier of WR's? I've been extremely unimpressed with his performance this year. He'll be 30 years old next year, and while that doesn't affect WRs anywhere near how it affects RBs, he's not a physical freak of nature like a TO, he doesn't appear to be creating much room for himself on his routes, and I haven't seen deep breakaway speed all season. His situation is also way up in the air at this point. He may not stay with the Bengals, and if he does, he better get back on the same page with Palmer real quick, because they played like strangers, particularly down the stretch.

At this point, I would certainly have Braylon Edwards (dominance potential) ranked ahead of him, as well as Reggie Wayne (negligible talent gap, better situation), and possibly even Steve Smith (I'll give Smith a pass for this year's performance) and Marques Colston (age/high potential for being a target monster in a good offense for the forseeable future). Thoughts?

 

[SSOG]

1) THanks for the heads-up on Robinson--I have given up on Jenkins and if Atlanta gets a QB, who knows?2) DA? I don't understand why you and Ssog seem to think he sucks so much. In fact, by SSog's rule (top 10 within first two years of starting) DA is the real deal because he is top 10 his first year.

I don't recall saying ANYTHING about Anderson, either positive or negative. Also, be sure to remember that while not finishing in the top 10 means you're almost certainly a bust, finishing in the top 10 does not necessarily make you "the real deal". Look at Eli Manning or Jon Kitna. Both of these guys hit the top 10 within 32 games, and neither's the kind of QB I'd want to base my fantasy franchise around. Hitting the top 10 means you have the possibility of becoming an every year starter, but it is by no means a certainty (or even possibly a likelihood).

I think he may have gotten you mixed up with the other whiz kid initial guy, namely EBF. Sometimes it's hard to keep initial guys straight...

I'm the one whose name, if you say it out loud, sounds like "Sausage".

Not sure I get the Washington thing. He was traded to Washington at the end of pre-season (no camp or pre-season games) to a team with an Al Saunders offense (tough for RBs). The team thought Portis was going to be out for a while and he ended up starting game #1. Betts was a solid and already established backup who knew the offense. Not exactly what I'd call given a chance to take the job.He's been on three teams now Falcons, Washington and Detroit. Not ideal, but not horrible. He looked great in 2003 and 2004 in Atlanta (running in a RBBC with Dunn), then had a bad year in 05 and got traded in 06. It's not like the guy has been a bum and been released from 3 or 4 teams. He's never been released. He was traded once and then his contract expired with the Skins who didn't need him (Portis) and he signed a one year deal with Detroit.As for Duckett vs Jones, I just don't get why people are STILL convinced Jones is an ultra-talented running back.Duckett, for his career has a 4.1 average which is not bad at all considering a good portion of his carries came in short yardage situations. Jones' career average is 4.0, and hasn't been higher than 3.8 in the past three years.Duckett has 36 TDs in 6 years but basically sat one whole year in Washington. Jones has STARTED 49 games (about 5x as many as TJ) and has 24 career TDs.Basically, Jones had a great rookie year and not much since. He's not really a speed runner, he's not particularly elusive, and he's not particularly powerful (though he has looked a LITTLE better this year in that area). Since Duckett got healthy in Detroit, you'd be hard pressed to say Jones has looked better than Duckett in any facet of the game.

Kevin Jones was a top-10 fantasy back last season until he got hurt. While he struggled running the ball, a huge part of that was attributable to his putrid offensive line play- he was making the most out of what was there. He's also a beast in the passing game. His performance in both aspects has really taken a swan-dive off of a cliff this season, but I don't know how much of that is due to injury and how much is due to Kevin Jones. With KJ, it gets back to what EBF was saying a few pages ago- playing in the NFL is really, really hard, and competition is ubiquitous. While you can succeed in the short term with average talent, in the long run it takes exceptional talent in order to maintain a firm hold on your job. While injuries have really held him back, I believe that it's possible that KJ possesses the necessary talent, which makes me like him more than an RB who might be performing better right now, but of whom I'm not sure has the necessary talent (such as T.J. Duckett).

 

[SSOG]

Is it time to take a hard look at dropping Chad Johnson from the elite tier of WR's? I've been extremely unimpressed with his performance this year. He'll be 30 years old next year, and while that doesn't affect WRs anywhere near how it affects RBs, he's not a physical freak of nature like a TO, he doesn't appear to be creating much room for himself on his routes, and I haven't seen deep breakaway speed all season. His situation is also way up in the air at this point. He may not stay with the Bengals, and if he does, he better get back on the same page with Palmer real quick, because they played like strangers, particularly down the stretch. At this point, I would certainly have Braylon Edwards (dominance potential) ranked ahead of him, as well as Reggie Wayne (negligible talent gap, better situation), and possibly even Steve Smith (I'll give Smith a pass for this year's performance) and Marques Colston (age/high potential for being a target monster in a good offense for the forseeable future). Thoughts?

I agree that it's time to move down The Chad. The Chad was great, but there are a lot of question marks surrounding his future right now. He's a gamble that I wouldn't mind taking if I had to... but with the name recognition and cachet that The Chad carries, you don't have to. He's an easily-movable commodity, someone for whom it is very easy to get comparable value, so why not ship him off and let someone else take the risks?I don't have any huge problems with his ranking, I'd just bump Colston up to the first tier and drop The Chad into a virtual tie with Owens and Holt (two other guys with great histories and lots of question marks) at the top of the second tier.

 

[eagles2007]

i think i'd drop tj as well as chad. that whole cincy situation seems to be a real mess. and tj really has done almost nothing in the last 8 weeks or so (i'm sure someone will find something to prove me wrong here, but his value went way down after week 5 or 6).

which tj do you get next year? the one from the first month or the one from the past 2 months?

 

[Fear & Loathing]

You're right. A dynasty ranking list should be totally stagnant and new developments should not be discussed (good games, potentially serious injuries to current starters, etc). The John Beck thing had a natural end (when they stopped playing him LOL), but I didn't think that was "too long" either. Pretty much EVERY player on the list has been discussed at length at this point.But no problem, I won't pollute your thread any more with ridiculous discussion of turds. I wasn't aware of the three post limit. I'll leave you to more important matters. Not sure what those are in a dynasty ranking thread (Manning vs Brady perhaps?), but I'll leave you to them.

Hey, you're a smart guy, and you have a lot to add...but would it hurt to tone down the attitude? I think you'll find that you'll get a much better response from people if you do (i.e. can the Manning vs. Brady whiny sarcasm when it's uncalled for). It's just not always a pleasure answering the same question over and over again. How many different ways can I say the same thing about a player who has failed repeatedly in the NFL?You gave me a list of guys to compare Duckett to, and I went down line-by-line and compared him to each of them. Two days later, you want to rehash the same comparisons all over again. And I'm the jerk because I think that's a waste of time? Everybody here already knows the drill with T.J. Duckett. We're not about to break any new ground or reveal some deep secret about his value. - He's been a major Ron Dayne-like bust in the NFL- He's floated around the league with nary a significant role in the offense the past few seasons...and nothing close to re-draft value much less dynasty- Kevin Jones just got injured so DET needs to bring in RB insurance- Duckett is a free agent but could be brought back- Most of the luck factor in dynasty leagues comes in picking the right turd. There's a lot of skill involved in this hobby too, but picking the right turd is the one part that's almost all luck. You can't put every turd on your roster, so grab a couple and hope for the best. You're backing Duckett, which is fine. But he's still a longshot to build dynasty value.Who here didn't know all of this already?

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Thanks for all the suggestions, guys. And thanks to Ksquared for the compliment.

I've been a little slow to update with the holiday weekend. I have been keeping the rankings at the blog up to date...you know, the new car smell and everything. I made wholesales changes on page one of this thread tonight, and most of the changes mentioned here were already made on the blog yesterday or the day before.

Moving down: Carson Palmer, Chad Johnson, Wes Welker, Willie Parker, Kevin Jones, Thomas Jones, Kellen Clemens, Derek Anderson, JaMarcus Russell

Moving up: Ben Roethlisberger, David Garrard, Shaun Hill, Marion Barber, Brandon Jacobs, DeAngelo Williams, Fred Taylor, Ahmad Bradshaw, Anquan Boldin, Jerricho Cotchery, Roddy White, Laurent Robinson

Thanks again for the feedback.

 

[jonboltz]

Here is a player I think merits some discussion on his ranking: Tarvaris Jackson

I think he may be a little low on the rankings, still behind guys like Kolb, Stanton, and Edwards. Even while struggling with ball security the past two games, he still has GREATLY improved over the past 6-7 weeks. Since week 9, he is completing 68% of his passes at a 7.4 ypa clip -- both very solid for a first year starter. Additionally, watching him play you can see that he is very accurate on the short-crosses and intermediate routes. He has a very very quick release as well. He gets in trouble with his mechanics and footwork and still makes some stupid decisions...but much of that is to be expected from a guy this raw.

Another big positive for him, especially for fantasy purposes, is his ability to make plays with his legs. 225 yards and 3 tds in about 3/4 of a season of play.

Additionally, he is doing this with a truly awful WR group. It helps having 8 in the box and giving him more space to throw, but that likely won't be changing anytime soon with ADP in the backfield.

I think next year, this guy could make a jump into the 13-15 range and be a viable backup for a fantasy team, and a pretty solid #2 in QB2 leagues (which I am more interested and why I generally care a great deal about the mid-tier QBs).

At the very least, I see him up there in the next group with Kolb (never had a snap), Stanton (seriously...stanton?), and Edwards (who has really regressed a great deal since getting the job).

 

[fatness]

Nice message on your blog, F&L.

It's an old legend that on Christmas Eve at midnight all the animals fall to their knees and speak, praising the new born Jesus.Back in the winter of '69, my Dad was serving a short term for a DUI....and I don't know where my Mom was. Anyway, I was home alone on Christmas Eve, and I stayed up extra late to see if my dog, Buddy, would talk. He did. At least, I think he did. I don't remember Buddy's exact words, but that's not important. What matters is that a seven-year-old boy experienced his own personal epiphany.What's my point? It's that Christmas reveals itself to each of us in a personal way, be it secular or sacred. Whatever Christmas is---and it's many things to many people---we all own a piece of it, kinda like Santa's bag. Inside there's a gift for everybody.My Christmas wish for you tonight: may your dog talk.

 

[az_prof]

i agree; Welker is this year's Michael Furrey--a guy who had a career year in the perfect offensive situation for his talent.

Jabar Gaffney Any value there? I'm of the opinion his production in the last 5 games were an outlier, but at this point, his production has caught my attention (29 targets over the last 5 weeks, and 4 TD's in that span). I checked a few of my leagues, and he is on the wire....My problem is that as I enter the off season, I don't really want to use any roster space on a guy like Gaffney, those spaces are being used for rookies I am rostering that I think may have more value down the road.

Interesting question.Hard to spend too much on a 4th string wideout. But who knows what's up with Stallworth, and if Stallworth is gone, Gaffney could have some reasonable value as a true WR3 in that offense.But, like Stokely back in 2004, is Gaffney's production really just a function of a ridiculous offense and basically no one even trying to cover him because of a "pick your poison" scenario? Stokely (somewhat predictably) went from 1077 and 10 to 543 and 1 in one year.Don't know if I'd use a roster slot on him unless it's a pretty deep league.

I think this question is better asked of Wes Welker. Love the guy and his role on the team, but I don't have him as highly ranked as F&L. See Troy Brown, Brandon Stokely, Az Hakim. Brady's TDs will regress to the mean. And even if that means 30 TDs, Welker is going to see a drop. Welker is a great WR2 in PPR, but I think he's a WR3 at best in non-PPR. He's killed fantasy teams in the fantasy playoffs because the TDs have been going Gaffney and to Maroney. Welker is a great replacement for the running game when the weather is good. A vital role for an NFL team, but not a fantasy team.Would love to hear more discussion about Welker's value.

Stokley & Az Hakim were WR3s, which Welker is not. The Patriots offense and QB ability are much improved from when Troy Brown was in his prime.I do expect the Pats offense to regress, and Welker will probably regress as well, but to be clear: he just turned 26, he finished as WR10 (WR8 in PPR) and he's ranked as WR22. The only players below him that could arguably be in the same value tier IMO are J Walker, A Gonzalez, D Driver and J Cotchery.

I think WR2/WR3 is misleading. Welker is the slot WR just like Stokely and Hakim. Welker's (very important) job is to move the chains and be an outlet. He's not a redzone threat. But when the team is throwing for 50 QBs, the slot WR is bound to catch a few. Assuming Welker ends up with 20% of TDs this year and keeps that up next year, he drops to 6 TDs )if Brady throws for 30). Knocking off 4 TDs is 24 points. In most leagues, that is about 12 spots. But I haven't even knocked off yards yet. Stokley dropped his yards in half.So maybe WR22 is right for him, but I see him as someone with a low ceiling. That may be reason to rank him lower if your strategy is to find a future WR1. But if you want a solid WR2/3 with a low floor, then WR22 makes sense. I just think the folks reading this thread are the type that can find a WR3 on the wire during the season and use their roster spots to hold guys with big upside.So depends on what type of value you're looking for. I am likely to keep Holt, Holmes, and Marshall. I can keep Welker, but a expensive price (salary cap league). I may not do it because Welker may never crack the lineup in front of those three and I would rather use the cap space on a WR that can blossom and take over for Holt as he ages or use the cap space on a different position.This is a good discussion. I'll want to come back to Welker in the non-playing season.

 

[Johnny Bench]

Is RB Ben Gay still in the league?

 

[Couch Potato]

Is RB Ben Gay still in the league?

Lemme check my big book of facts here... looking... looking... looking... uh, no. No more Lawrence Phillips or Bam Morris either in case you were wondering. HTH.

 

[gheemony]

Here is a player I think merits some discussion on his ranking: Tarvaris JacksonI think he may be a little low on the rankings, still behind guys like Kolb, Stanton, and Edwards. Even while struggling with ball security the past two games, he still has GREATLY improved over the past 6-7 weeks. Since week 9, he is completing 68% of his passes at a 7.4 ypa clip -- both very solid for a first year starter. Additionally, watching him play you can see that he is very accurate on the short-crosses and intermediate routes. He has a very very quick release as well. He gets in trouble with his mechanics and footwork and still makes some stupid decisions...but much of that is to be expected from a guy this raw.Another big positive for him, especially for fantasy purposes, is his ability to make plays with his legs. 225 yards and 3 tds in about 3/4 of a season of play. Additionally, he is doing this with a truly awful WR group. It helps having 8 in the box and giving him more space to throw, but that likely won't be changing anytime soon with ADP in the backfield. I think next year, this guy could make a jump into the 13-15 range and be a viable backup for a fantasy team, and a pretty solid #2 in QB2 leagues (which I am more interested and why I generally care a great deal about the mid-tier QBs).At the very least, I see him up there in the next group with Kolb (never had a snap), Stanton (seriously...stanton?), and Edwards (who has really regressed a great deal since getting the job).

There's been good talk on this thread about making quick judgments about talent and acting quickly. I am close to deciding that Jackson is going to fail. This largely based on the Lewin Forecast System in Football Prospectus/Football Outsiders. Jackson doesn't forecast well because of very poor completion percentage in college and very few starts. The reason I haven't written him off completely is his ability to run. If he becomes a semi-respectable QB, he could be a very good fantasy QB by running for 30-40 yards a game and some TDs a year (witness the 2 TD game on Sunday). In most leagues, 10 running yards = 25 passing yards and a runnning TD is worth 6 pts v. 4 for a passing TD. Vick is a good example of a bad NFL QB being a good fantasy QB. So there is hope. But it's minimal, especially with the risk that a veteran QB is brought in next season.The conventional wisdom is that Jackson is awful, so I am not putting him on any rosters. I figure he'll just sit on the wire and if I see signs of improvement, I'll have time to grab him later. So my advice is, even if you think he'll improve, he's not worth a roster spot. Just keep a close eye on him and grab him after you see tangible evidence of improvement.

 

[FavreCo]

Here is a player I think merits some discussion on his ranking: Tarvaris Jackson

Turd. Won't be the QB by the end of 2008. That team has a chance to do big things in 2008 and he is the weak link that can derail them. He is single handedly stopping Adrian Peterson.

 

[Avery]

Here is a player I think merits some discussion on his ranking: Tarvaris Jackson

Turd. Won't be the QB by the end of 2008. That team has a chance to do big things in 2008 and he is the weak link that can derail them. He is single handedly stopping Adrian Peterson.

Brad Childress down?

 

[jonboltz]

Here is a player I think merits some discussion on his ranking: Tarvaris Jackson

Turd. Won't be the QB by the end of 2008. That team has a chance to do big things in 2008 and he is the weak link that can derail them. He is single handedly stopping Adrian Peterson.

Based on your previous evaluations of QBs, this might be reason alone to bump TJ up a few spots.

 

[jonboltz]

Here is a player I think merits some discussion on his ranking: Tarvaris JacksonI think he may be a little low on the rankings, still behind guys like Kolb, Stanton, and Edwards. Even while struggling with ball security the past two games, he still has GREATLY improved over the past 6-7 weeks. Since week 9, he is completing 68% of his passes at a 7.4 ypa clip -- both very solid for a first year starter. Additionally, watching him play you can see that he is very accurate on the short-crosses and intermediate routes. He has a very very quick release as well. He gets in trouble with his mechanics and footwork and still makes some stupid decisions...but much of that is to be expected from a guy this raw.Another big positive for him, especially for fantasy purposes, is his ability to make plays with his legs. 225 yards and 3 tds in about 3/4 of a season of play. Additionally, he is doing this with a truly awful WR group. It helps having 8 in the box and giving him more space to throw, but that likely won't be changing anytime soon with ADP in the backfield. I think next year, this guy could make a jump into the 13-15 range and be a viable backup for a fantasy team, and a pretty solid #2 in QB2 leagues (which I am more interested and why I generally care a great deal about the mid-tier QBs).At the very least, I see him up there in the next group with Kolb (never had a snap), Stanton (seriously...stanton?), and Edwards (who has really regressed a great deal since getting the job).

There's been good talk on this thread about making quick judgments about talent and acting quickly. I am close to deciding that Jackson is going to fail. This largely based on the Lewin Forecast System in Football Prospectus/Football Outsiders. Jackson doesn't forecast well because of very poor completion percentage in college and very few starts.

61% in his senior year of college, and 58% in his first year starting (68% in the 2nd half after coming back from injuries).

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Here is a player I think merits some discussion on his ranking: Tarvaris JacksonI think he may be a little low on the rankings, still behind guys like Kolb, Stanton, and Edwards. Even while struggling with ball security the past two games, he still has GREATLY improved over the past 6-7 weeks. Since week 9, he is completing 68% of his passes at a 7.4 ypa clip -- both very solid for a first year starter. Additionally, watching him play you can see that he is very accurate on the short-crosses and intermediate routes. He has a very very quick release as well. He gets in trouble with his mechanics and footwork and still makes some stupid decisions...but much of that is to be expected from a guy this raw.Another big positive for him, especially for fantasy purposes, is his ability to make plays with his legs. 225 yards and 3 tds in about 3/4 of a season of play. Additionally, he is doing this with a truly awful WR group. It helps having 8 in the box and giving him more space to throw, but that likely won't be changing anytime soon with ADP in the backfield. I think next year, this guy could make a jump into the 13-15 range and be a viable backup for a fantasy team, and a pretty solid #2 in QB2 leagues (which I am more interested and why I generally care a great deal about the mid-tier QBs).At the very least, I see him up there in the next group with Kolb (never had a snap), Stanton (seriously...stanton?), and Edwards (who has really regressed a great deal since getting the job).

There's been good talk on this thread about making quick judgments about talent and acting quickly. I am close to deciding that Jackson is going to fail. This largely based on the Lewin Forecast System in Football Prospectus/Football Outsiders. Jackson doesn't forecast well because of very poor completion percentage in college and very few starts.

61% in his senior year of college, and 58% in his first year starting (68% in the 2nd half after coming back from injuries).

The reason I've been slightly higher on Tarvaris Jackson in the past is because of his running ability. If you can run, you don't have to be even an average NFL QB to gain fantasy value.The reason I've soured on him over the past couple of weeks is because it should be glaringly obvious to Brad Childress that he has a contending window provided by his defense and running game, and he can't afford to be wasting contending opportunities on a raw mistake-prone QB while guys like Pennington and McNabb may be available. Unless, of course, he wants to follow the Lovie Smith model of how to blow your window of opportunity by having your QB hold the team hostage.

 

[gheemony]

Here is a player I think merits some discussion on his ranking: Tarvaris JacksonI think he may be a little low on the rankings, still behind guys like Kolb, Stanton, and Edwards. Even while struggling with ball security the past two games, he still has GREATLY improved over the past 6-7 weeks. Since week 9, he is completing 68% of his passes at a 7.4 ypa clip -- both very solid for a first year starter. Additionally, watching him play you can see that he is very accurate on the short-crosses and intermediate routes. He has a very very quick release as well. He gets in trouble with his mechanics and footwork and still makes some stupid decisions...but much of that is to be expected from a guy this raw.Another big positive for him, especially for fantasy purposes, is his ability to make plays with his legs. 225 yards and 3 tds in about 3/4 of a season of play. Additionally, he is doing this with a truly awful WR group. It helps having 8 in the box and giving him more space to throw, but that likely won't be changing anytime soon with ADP in the backfield. I think next year, this guy could make a jump into the 13-15 range and be a viable backup for a fantasy team, and a pretty solid #2 in QB2 leagues (which I am more interested and why I generally care a great deal about the mid-tier QBs).At the very least, I see him up there in the next group with Kolb (never had a snap), Stanton (seriously...stanton?), and Edwards (who has really regressed a great deal since getting the job).

There's been good talk on this thread about making quick judgments about talent and acting quickly. I am close to deciding that Jackson is going to fail. This largely based on the Lewin Forecast System in Football Prospectus/Football Outsiders. Jackson doesn't forecast well because of very poor completion percentage in college and very few starts.

61% in his senior year of college, and 58% in his first year starting (68% in the 2nd half after coming back from injuries).

Unfortunately, don't have PFP 2007 in front of me to give you the reason why the Lewin system doesn't like Jackson. But IIRC, lack of starts and lack of quality opponents is part of the reason (explaining some of his accuracy as a senior). Still haven't given up on T-Jax, but I'm not optimistic. For the reasons cited above, I'm not putting him on my dynasty rosters, but keeping a close eye on him.that being said, as an AD owner, I would much rather see a veteran QB come in. I'll even take Bollinger.

 

[FavreCo]

Based on your previous evaluations of QBs, this might be reason alone to bump TJ up a few spots.

Go ahead and don't forget to tell us how this hack will dominate.I pick QB's based on their ability to throw 25+ TD's. Let me know how this bum is going to do that.Now remind me as to what QB I previously said was a hack and has passed 25+ TD's. Thanks. Didn't think there was one. On top of that, he needs to consistently rack up yardage too. Now who was it again that I said sucked and has since been able to do EITHER of those?

 

[Brewzers]

Here is a player I think merits some discussion on his ranking: Tarvaris JacksonI think he may be a little low on the rankings, still behind guys like Kolb, Stanton, and Edwards. Even while struggling with ball security the past two games, he still has GREATLY improved over the past 6-7 weeks. Since week 9, he is completing 68% of his passes at a 7.4 ypa clip -- both very solid for a first year starter. Additionally, watching him play you can see that he is very accurate on the short-crosses and intermediate routes. He has a very very quick release as well. He gets in trouble with his mechanics and footwork and still makes some stupid decisions...but much of that is to be expected from a guy this raw.Another big positive for him, especially for fantasy purposes, is his ability to make plays with his legs. 225 yards and 3 tds in about 3/4 of a season of play. Additionally, he is doing this with a truly awful WR group. It helps having 8 in the box and giving him more space to throw, but that likely won't be changing anytime soon with ADP in the backfield. I think next year, this guy could make a jump into the 13-15 range and be a viable backup for a fantasy team, and a pretty solid #2 in QB2 leagues (which I am more interested and why I generally care a great deal about the mid-tier QBs).At the very least, I see him up there in the next group with Kolb (never had a snap), Stanton (seriously...stanton?), and Edwards (who has really regressed a great deal since getting the job).

There's been good talk on this thread about making quick judgments about talent and acting quickly. I am close to deciding that Jackson is going to fail. This largely based on the Lewin Forecast System in Football Prospectus/Football Outsiders. Jackson doesn't forecast well because of very poor completion percentage in college and very few starts.

61% in his senior year of college, and 58% in his first year starting (68% in the 2nd half after coming back from injuries).

The reason I've been slightly higher on Tarvaris Jackson in the past is because of his running ability. If you can run, you don't have to be even an average NFL QB to gain fantasy value.The reason I've soured on him over the past couple of weeks is because it should be glaringly obvious to Brad Childress that he has a contending window provided by his defense and running game, and he can't afford to be wasting contending opportunities on a raw mistake-prone QB while guys like Pennington and McNabb may be available. Unless, of course, he wants to follow the Lovie Smith model of how to blow your window of opportunity by having your QB hold the team hostage.

I think this is pretty accurate. The Vikings are alot further along than many thought at the beginning of the year. The time for them to capitalize is now. Their glaring weakness is QB. Unfortunately for TJ, the only thing he proved this year is that he needs a couple more years of development. Thats not saying he's a turd. He just isn't ready for prime time right now.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

The reason I've been slightly higher on Tarvaris Jackson in the past is because of his running ability. If you can run, you don't have to be even an average NFL QB to gain fantasy value.

The reason I've soured on him over the past couple of weeks is because it should be glaringly obvious to Brad Childress that he has a contending window provided by his defense and running game, and he can't afford to be wasting contending opportunities on a raw mistake-prone QB while guys like Pennington and McNabb may be available.

Unless, of course, he wants to follow the Lovie Smith model of how to blow your window of opportunity by having your QB hold the team hostage.

I think this is pretty accurate. The Vikings are alot further along than many thought at the beginning of the year. The time for them to capitalize is now. Their glaring weakness is QB. Unfortunately for TJ, the only thing he proved this year is that he needs a couple more years of development. Thats not saying he's a turd. He just isn't ready for prime time right now.

On a related note, Profootballtalk.com says Childress will not commit to Jackson for 2008:

Minnesota Vikings coach Brad Childress won't commit to quarterback Tarvaris Jackson as the team's starter for 2008.

Specifically, Childress wants to review Jackson's "body of work" before deciding what to do. With Eagles quarterback Donovan McNabb expected to be available via trade, Childress might be tempted to try to grab the guy from the coach's former team. Though Jackson might eventually develop into a great quarterback, there are no five-year plans in the modern NFL. The challenge is to win today.

Still, Childress can't bad mouth the second-year player for whom the Vikings arguably reached in round two of the 2006 draft.

"His record as a starter speaks for itself," Childress said on Monday. "I'd like [him] to do a little bit better job with that ball security, and that ends up being the premium. By and large, he's been decent [in] decision-making. I always want to see us make the routine plays routinely. [Against the Redskins,] I thought we left a couple throws on the field. . . . But then, I think he has made some very, very good throws.

"But I'd just like to do a better job of securing the football. And some of that is on him and some of that is on other people."

The Vikings would have the cap room to pay McNabb; the challenge would be whether they'd be willing to give the Eagles what they'd want via trade. Reports recently circulated that an unnamed team learned before the 2007 trade deadline that Philly wanted a whopping three first-round picks for the No. 2 overall pick in the 1999 draft.

Though that very well might have been a deliberate effort by Philly to get more than the second-round pick that the market might otherwise dictate, it's a given that the Eagles would want to get as much as they could, if for no reason other than to justify parting ways with McNabb.

And whether it's McNabb or someone else, there's a growing sense of unease regarding the ability of Jackson to take advantage of the crowd of defenders obsessed with stopping running back Adrian Peterson. Surely, there are quarterbacks out there who would be able to ring up 30-plus points per game with only two or three defensive backs to worry about.

 

[benm3218]

This news hurts Gonzalez big time....

QB Croyle Iffy This Week, But Will Start... In 2008

Randy Covits, Kansas City Star - [Full Article]

According to the Kansas City Star, Chiefs HC Herm Edwards said that QB Brodie Croyle will be the team's starting quarterback next season. He may or may not play this week, however, due to a hand injury suffered against the Lions. "I'm hoping he can play this week," Edwards said. "Another week of playing will help him and will help us evaluate that position. But he's a guy we like," Edwards said.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

This news hurts Gonzalez big time....

QB Croyle Iffy This Week, But Will Start... In 2008

Randy Covits, Kansas City Star - [Full Article]

According to the Kansas City Star, Chiefs HC Herm Edwards said that QB Brodie Croyle will be the team's starting quarterback next season. He may or may not play this week, however, due to a hand injury suffered against the Lions. "I'm hoping he can play this week," Edwards said. "Another week of playing will help him and will help us evaluate that position. But he's a guy we like," Edwards said.

Herm = Same Herm quote here, but I agree with Rotoworld's take. It's far from a lock that Croyle will be starting on Opening Day 2008:

Brodie Croyle (hand) is considered "questionable" for Week 17.

"I’m hoping he can play this week," Chiefs coach Herm Edwards said. "Another week of him playing will help him and help us to evaluate." Edwards added that he isn't "going to panic" about Croyle's inability to stay healthy, but the Chiefs don't figure to hand Croyle the starting job next season.