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Dynasty Rankings (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Jeff Pasquino
- Start date
JGalligan
Footballguy
Dave Stauff
Footballguy
Jeff - Thanks for sharing - always appreciate getting multiple perspectives. Looks like your player inventory could use updating - noticed Winslow, Orton and Cutler still display on former teams/may be others, I didn't look that close. I'm curious to see your relative valuations of Cutler and Orton before and after the trade went down - does Cutler still hold onto the consensus four spot after all three of you update? Guess we'll see . . .
comfortably numb
Footballguy
Yea, site has been slow in updating new teams.TO is still a cowboy
I have been keeping the positional rankings up to date and let the overall rankings go a while. The overall rankings are more sensitive to the day to day news, imo.
comfortably numb
Footballguy
Calvin Johnson walks into a bar, the bartender says, "what's with the low ranking?"
Blackjacks
Footballguy
Love to see the updates.........I don't know about Calvin ranked #9........... but I still love to see the updates.
i heard him...he said it. this IS a dynasty ranking, right?
Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
Correct on the team updates (I never notice them anymore).
I fixed Cutler/Orton/KW2/TO for now. I'm sure many are off as that's been a lax update.
As for Calvin at #9, I could be swayed to have him higher. I don't know - it is a scary QB situation, but there's no questioning he's a Top 10 talent. Granted Reggie Wayne is older, but with Peyton I expect Top 10 numbers for the next 4-5 seasons.
The correct answer probably lies between 2 and 9 for CJ2. There's a group of 8-10 guys that are in that upper tier.
I fixed Cutler/Orton/KW2/TO for now. I'm sure many are off as that's been a lax update.
As for Calvin at #9, I could be swayed to have him higher. I don't know - it is a scary QB situation, but there's no questioning he's a Top 10 talent. Granted Reggie Wayne is older, but with Peyton I expect Top 10 numbers for the next 4-5 seasons.
The correct answer probably lies between 2 and 9 for CJ2. There's a group of 8-10 guys that are in that upper tier.
identikit
Footballguy
Calvin's QB situation is no worse than last year IMO; look at the #s he put up in spite of it....
This is dynasty, so looking past the current QB crew should be part of the equation.
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Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
How long does it take for a QB to mature in the NFL?How many years are you willing to wait for that?
QBs always factor in for a WR. Look at Randy Moss if you don't believe me.
comfortably numb
Footballguy
Just to stir the pot a bit, would Fitz drop very far if Leinhart took over?
identikit
Footballguy
Well...
Factor last year's QB mess in Detroit, and let me know how Calvin fared in your leagues...
Better than WR9, I'll guess....
EBF
Footballguy
Calvin is eight years younger than Moss and seven years younger than Wayne. In PPR dynasty, he should be one of the first three players taken along with Fitz and Peterson. I think the flavor of your list is a little too "win now" in general. Guys like Moss, Housh, TO, and Ward are approaching the point where they're becoming very difficult to trade because their age scares people (TO has already passed that point and probably only has 1-2 relevant years left).
That said, it's hard to make dynasty rankings because so much of a player's value depends on team context and owner style. I tend to take more of a long view, so I put a premium on young players like Royal, Gonzalez, and Avery even though their track record doesn't compare to guys like Coles, Chambers, and Driver.
That said, it's hard to make dynasty rankings because so much of a player's value depends on team context and owner style. I tend to take more of a long view, so I put a premium on young players like Royal, Gonzalez, and Avery even though their track record doesn't compare to guys like Coles, Chambers, and Driver.
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loose circuits
Footballguy
Vincent Jackson at 36? are you kidding me...
Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
Where would you put him?Hard to answer a rhetorical question.....There's only one ball in San Diego. LT2 / Sproles / Gates / Chambers - where does VJ fit in?
Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
Matt Leinart would degrade Fitz and Boldin a little. Not a ton, but a little. Leinart's unproven and hasn't done well when given the chance, while Kurt Warner is a Top 5 QB in Arizona. Same would occur for most WRs if their long term passer was downgraded.
Blackjacks
Footballguy
So if your ranking dynasty wise and you admit that Fitz and Boldin won't be as good with Leinart instead of Warner and Warner only has 1 or 2 years left I can't see putting them as high as you did. These are your rankings you can do them however you would like but the comments don't really gwith your rankings IMO.
Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
Ok. The age argument is a good one on CJ2 - moved him to 3rd WR.
Boldin had to go down a little as well.
Any other comments still welcome.
Boldin had to go down a little as well.
Any other comments still welcome.
Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
I give at least 50% weight to the next 2 seasons, so that should be a "Warner period". There's also no guarantee that Leinart inherits the reins in AZ. His contract leaps upward in 2011.That said, great WRs can improve a good QB, but a mediocre-to-bad QB situation (and offensive scheme) can bury a wideout.I think we can debate the Top 10 WRs until we're blue in the face and we'll not get to a happy answer for everyone, but I can see how others would have different opinions.
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Donnybrook
Footballguy
It looks like Burton (60) is a good value compared to Avery (26).
comfortably numb
Footballguy
Even with the Laurent Robinson trade?
Donnybrook
Footballguy
Robinson is no threat to Burton. Burton has better hands than Robinson and Avery. The only question mark is his health.
comfortably numb
Footballguy
Jeff's ranking usually favor the vet over the youngster.Nothing wrong with that, the goal is also to win this year.
Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
STL WR2 is a highly volatile situation.LRobinson, Burton, Derek Stanley, draft pick.... all could be in the fold.
loose circuits
Footballguy
I have him just after 20 curious about suspension ruling. If only 1-2 games, he could easily crack my top 20. He finished 19th in my PPR league and 16th in my distance scoring league. Did he already crack the top 15 in non-PPR leagues (which appears to be the scoring used)? ProFootball Reference has him listed at 12. I don't have any standard non-PPR leagues to reference and I'm too lazy to look it up. Rivers loves him. Something like 95% of the balls he caught went for 1st down. He was a huge project coming out of Greeley and now has finally put it all together. Rivers loves him.Vincent is a free agent in 2010 and could be on the top of the list of free agent WR's going to a team breaking the bank and making him a true WR1. A 26 year old WR that finished that high in scoring, does not deserve to be that low (below guys that have not proven they can get it done)
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Norm Peterson
Footballguy
Great stuff Jeff!
Do you have any idea when you may release any new defense rankings? Team and/or IDP?
Do you have any idea when you may release any new defense rankings? Team and/or IDP?
ADP
Footballguy
At first glance...
QBs - Cutler too high, I would move him down behind Rodgers. Based on situation among other things, Romo, Ryan, Rivers, & Rodgers should all be in front of him.
RBs - I would move D. Will, Gore, & Barber ahead of Westbrook and LT. All should be fairly close in scoring over next 1-2 years, but beyond that those guys hold alot more value. J. Lewis too high and R. Mendenhal too low.
WRs - G. Jennings should be ahead of B. Marshall. R. White is way too low. I think he belongs right around 8/9 range again just ahead of B. Marshall. TO & Ward too high and D. Avery & V. Jackson too low.
TEs - No comments.
Overall great! Thanks!
QBs - Cutler too high, I would move him down behind Rodgers. Based on situation among other things, Romo, Ryan, Rivers, & Rodgers should all be in front of him.
RBs - I would move D. Will, Gore, & Barber ahead of Westbrook and LT. All should be fairly close in scoring over next 1-2 years, but beyond that those guys hold alot more value. J. Lewis too high and R. Mendenhal too low.
WRs - G. Jennings should be ahead of B. Marshall. R. White is way too low. I think he belongs right around 8/9 range again just ahead of B. Marshall. TO & Ward too high and D. Avery & V. Jackson too low.
TEs - No comments.
Overall great! Thanks!
FUBAR
Footballguy
I like Burton, but Avery is pretty much a lock to be on the field whereas Burton could be very good or might not play much at all. WR60 is about right, and that's even with my bias as a Burton owner. my off-hand comments, without reading others:QB - I can't see taking Cutler above Ben right now, I'm just not sold on Chicago as a passing team and Ben is a better QB IMO. I'd bump Trent Edwards to around #15, maybe higher. RB - wow, major difference in how people value Westbrook. I'd have him #10. I agree with Bloom of Lynch's value. I realize Portis is older, but he continues to be a good value (can't argue too much with the ranking, but he's a value there IMO). Brandon Jackson should be higher IMO. WR - AJ @ #5? He's #3. I like Holmes a lot, but can't see taking him over Roddy White. TO = see Westbrook; oddly I think he's right where he should be when you average the 3. I like Breaston more than Housh, but I may be alone there. Chambers - I agree with JP, #50 is way low. It's really interesting to see the differences once we get outside the top 30ish. TE - There's no way I take KW @ #2, I'm not sure I take him over Keller. Love the VD ranking but as JT says, he'll be overvalued in drafts.
Thanks for updating this, guys. My draft is coming up in early May for a startup dynasty league, so I need all the information I can get.
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
I think we are going to see more WRs taken in the 1st round than in the past couple of years.
After ADP, I just can't decide on the next RB... and I'm not sold on MJD as the #2 Pick in a PPR Start up
(I know the Rankings are non PPR, but I have seen MJD Ranked as #2 in PPR)
I would be more inclined to Take Calvin & Fitz at #2 & 3 in a start up than MJD or any other RB.
QB: Ranking looks good, a lot of Faith in Cutler to still have him in the top 5 over Rivers.
RB: Portis & LT out of the top 15 while Westy is in!!!!!!!!!!! out of those 3, I would say Westy is the more injury prone and should be out of the Top 15. Rest look good.
WR: I would Move Gonzalez Higher
TE: KW at 3... I doubt hes even in peoples top 8.
After ADP, I just can't decide on the next RB... and I'm not sold on MJD as the #2 Pick in a PPR Start up
(I know the Rankings are non PPR, but I have seen MJD Ranked as #2 in PPR)
I would be more inclined to Take Calvin & Fitz at #2 & 3 in a start up than MJD or any other RB.
QB: Ranking looks good, a lot of Faith in Cutler to still have him in the top 5 over Rivers.
RB: Portis & LT out of the top 15 while Westy is in!!!!!!!!!!! out of those 3, I would say Westy is the more injury prone and should be out of the Top 15. Rest look good.
WR: I would Move Gonzalez Higher
TE: KW at 3... I doubt hes even in peoples top 8.
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millertyme1
Footballguy
I'd LOVE if guys didn't have him in their top 8.26 years old when season opens. Already 2 80 catch seasons, 1 1100 yard season to his credit. Easily in my top 3 (I actually have him #2). Not to mention he's going to be the focal point of the pass offense.
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Donnybrook
Footballguy
Burton has the best hands on the team and I believe Bulger has already started to develop a trust in him. Burton catches the ball in traffic and is perfect for the slot. I think it will be hard to take him off the field when the team needs to move the chains. If he remains healthy, I won't be surprised if ends up their most consistant receiver.
I'd LOVE if guys didn't have him in their top 8.26 years old when season opens. Already 2 80 catch seasons, 1 1100 yard season to his credit. Easily in my top 3 (I actually have him #2). Not to mention he's going to be the focal point of the pass offense.
One down year and everybody seems to forget how great a player is. Weird.
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
Focal Point!!! Bryant Down? I like KW last yr, after 2 80 rec season people where still down on him because of his past injuries so I jump at getting him. I have since traded him away this season while I can get good value back.I'd LOVE if guys didn't have him in their top 8.26 years old when season opens. Already 2 80 catch seasons, 1 1100 yard season to his credit. Easily in my top 3 (I actually have him #2). Not to mention he's going to be the focal point of the pass offense.
Its not only he had a Down yr.. hes on a new team that has nobody at QB yet. Also, the TE position has become very deep;
I Rank
Witten / Gonzo / Gates / Clark / Cooley / Daniels / Then I start thinking about Winslow
FUBAR
Footballguy
I'd like to think so, but on what basis? The guy has a reception in 10 games, 2 in three of those, but he hasn't exactly been the guy Bulger's looked to. Unless I missed some camp.
FUBAR
Footballguy
Focal Point!!! Bryant Down? I like KW last yr, after 2 80 rec season people where still down on him because of his past injuries so I jump at getting him. I have since traded him away this season while I can get good value back.
Its not only he had a Down yr.. hes on a new team that has nobody at QB yet. Also, the TE position has become very deep;
I Rank
Witten / Gonzo / Gates / Clark / Cooley / Daniels / Then I start thinking about Winslow
pretty much how I see it. If I'm going after potential, he's right up there though.
FUBAR
Footballguy
You can use them, just don't expect your teammates to.I need to get in a new league, I love that there's not a true consensus now, it seems in recent years people have been fearful of using their own heads.
millertyme1
Footballguy
Focal Point!!! Bryant Down? I like KW last yr, after 2 80 rec season people where still down on him because of his past injuries so I jump at getting him. I have since traded him away this season while I can get good value back.I'd LOVE if guys didn't have him in their top 8.26 years old when season opens. Already 2 80 catch seasons, 1 1100 yard season to his credit. Easily in my top 3 (I actually have him #2). Not to mention he's going to be the focal point of the pass offense.
One down year and everybody seems to forget how great a player is. Weird.
Its not only he had a Down yr.. hes on a new team that has nobody at QB yet. Also, the TE position has become very deep;
I Rank
Witten / Gonzo / Gates / Clark / Cooley / Daniels / Then I start thinking about Winslow
More than ever. You liked Winslow after 2 80+ catch years (buying high), but down now (buying low) you don't? What you're saying makes absolutely no sense....I'd like to know those people that were down on him last year. You'd make some sense if you were saying they were down on him NOW (coming off a down stat season in 2008)Bryant's playing on a 1-year tender. Either he duplicates last year or drifts into obscurity. Winslow's got the long term stability there. You really don't believe Captain Checkdown McCown isn't going to use Ward/Graham/Winslow extensively?? You might want to find some tape on Luke.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Clinton Portis will be 28 years old on September 1 2009. Based off of his past performance I see no reason to have him ranked 13th, 15th and 19th respectivly.
With the exception of 2006 the only season Portis missed any significant time he has never finished outside of the top 10 in total yardage in his career.
I would take Portis easily ahead of players like Kevin Smith, Reggie Bush, Ronnie Brown, Marshawn Lynch, Brandon Jacobs.
Westbrook and LT are 2 years older than Portis and at 30 there is reason for a downgrade (not as much as some have here). That reason should not apply to Portis who probably has at least 3 more productive seasons left in him.
Johnathan Stewart has a lot of fans. That made me laff.
Portis will not share carries like Marion Barber.
Gore, MJD and Cris Johnson have a lot of upside so I can kind of understand looking at them over Portis but Mjd would be the only one I felt worth the risk.
Michael Turner is only half a year younger than Portis is.
Forte and Jackson are younger feature RB so I could see going that way.
Portis is woefully under-rated here.
With the exception of 2006 the only season Portis missed any significant time he has never finished outside of the top 10 in total yardage in his career.
I would take Portis easily ahead of players like Kevin Smith, Reggie Bush, Ronnie Brown, Marshawn Lynch, Brandon Jacobs.
Westbrook and LT are 2 years older than Portis and at 30 there is reason for a downgrade (not as much as some have here). That reason should not apply to Portis who probably has at least 3 more productive seasons left in him.
Johnathan Stewart has a lot of fans. That made me laff.
Portis will not share carries like Marion Barber.
Gore, MJD and Cris Johnson have a lot of upside so I can kind of understand looking at them over Portis but Mjd would be the only one I felt worth the risk.
Michael Turner is only half a year younger than Portis is.
Forte and Jackson are younger feature RB so I could see going that way.
Portis is woefully under-rated here.
Thanks to Jeff P. for the updated rankings. I enjoy reviewing others perspective on players, especially in the off-season. i also enjoy discussions on differences of opinion when there are facts presented to back the opinion.
BUT, I can't believe how dogmatic some opinions are. Seems to me that some folks need to get over themselves. If we all rank everybody the same, what fun would that be?
There would ne no value or sleepers even. Rant over. Carry on.
BUT, I can't believe how dogmatic some opinions are. Seems to me that some folks need to get over themselves. If we all rank everybody the same, what fun would that be?
There would ne no value or sleepers even. Rant over. Carry on.
texasbirdfan
Footballguy
LOL, Jeff, Ryan 6th?
Let's see White 13th, Jenkins 73rd, NO tight end, Norwood may catch a few?
Where does this production come from? I know it's dynasty, but a lot is weighted on the first couple years and the Falcons are not drafting or trading for any high WR picks. (at least the Falcons may be gaining respect or maybe it's all the PR the league is doing is catching on)
Let's see White 13th, Jenkins 73rd, NO tight end, Norwood may catch a few?
Where does this production come from? I know it's dynasty, but a lot is weighted on the first couple years and the Falcons are not drafting or trading for any high WR picks. (at least the Falcons may be gaining respect or maybe it's all the PR the league is doing is catching on)
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EBF
Footballguy
The past is not the future. You don't get points for what someone did yesterday. Portis is virtually untradeable in dynasty as it is. In another year or two, his trade value will be almost completely nonexistent. He's only 27 years old, but he has a ton of mileage. Here's the current top ten active NFL rushing attempts leaders:1. Edgerrin James (30) 2,982 2. Warrick Dunn (33) 2,669 3. LaDainian Tomlinson (29) 2,657 4. Fred Taylor (32) 2,428 5. Jamal Lewis (29) 2,399 6. Shaun Alexander (31) 2,187 7. Clinton Portis (27) 2,052 8. Ahman Green (31) 2,0159. Thomas Jones (30) 1,949 10. Ricky Williams (31) 1,923Portis is approaching the end of the line. At best, he probably has three productive seasons left. A more realistic scenario is 1-2 more productive seasons, after which he'll have about as much trade value as a bag of pebbles. Is that really what you want from a top 20 dynasty pick? He has value if you're in "win now" mode, but he's not someone you can build around. Here's the problem with ranking young players vs. old players: established old players are "safer" picks because they're proven commodities, but they generally have a much shorter potential shelf life since they've been in the league for a while already. So while a guy like Stewart might have a lower probability of yielding useful FF numbers than an old pro like Portis, he also has the potential to play 4-5 years longer. In many cases that potential value is enough to offset the advantage of the "safer" old guy.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
EBF
Footballguy
That might be true, particularly in start 2 RB leagues where there's typically more pressure to draft backs. However, even in the 5th round you're probably passing up some very promising younger players. There's a trade-off there. If you don't win in the next year or two, you have nothing to show for a pick that could've been spent on a potential nucleus player. Dynasty rankings are tricky because different players have different values to different teams. In a redraft league, everyone is trying to win that season. In dynasty, some people are focusing on the short term, some people are taking the long view, and others are working from a middle ground. I'm not sure there's a right or wrong way to go, although experience has taught me that it's probably better to err on the side of too much youth.
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