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Dynasty Reminder: Keenan Allen, WR, San Diego (1 Viewer)

King of the Jungle

Footballguy
I remember last year there were talks of him being the number 1 rookie wr for dynasty drafts.

REASONS FOR THE FALL

* Knee injury slowed down his 40 time. For some reason people still live and die by this skill competition.

* His production was down which most Cal fans agree it was due to poor QB play.

REASONS TO BE EXCITED

* He is 6'2" 200 lbs, good height and probably will put some NFL muscle on his 21 year body. Good size.

* He has tremendously quick feet. He may not have burner speed but it doesn't matter. His ability to change direction and move laterally give him a chance to be open at any time.

* San Diego is hurting at WR so the return may be sooner than expected for dynasty holders.

After watching this guy on tape I could not believe that he is not receiving more hype. I have not heard much talk of him but think he has a strong shot at being a top WR from this class in the next 3 years.

I would be curious on other opinions just from the fact that I think people are missing the boat on this guy.

 
REASONS FOR THE FALL:

* He was drafted in the 3rd round by the NFL, as the 8th receiver off the board.

I tend to think that NFL scouting departments are pretty good at their job, so draft position is pretty important to me when making my rankings.

 
He fell in the draft because of his knee which was still bothering him in camp. Medical issues are a big red flag at this point, ten months after relatively minor injury.

 
I never really bought into the hype on Allen. You're right, he seems like a forgotten man all of a sudden though. Things are shaping up for him to see good opportunity in SD this year. We'll see what he's made of early on I suspect.

 
REASONS FOR THE FALL:

* He was drafted in the 3rd round by the NFL, as the 8th receiver off the board.

I tend to think that NFL scouting departments are pretty good at their job, so draft position is pretty important to me when making my rankings.
Worst argument ever. Scouts fail all the time.
:goodposting:

Is his fall to the 3rd round of teh NFL draft cause for concern? Certainly. Is it reason enough to think he can't still be a great NFL WR? Absolutely not.

 
Adam Harstad said:
REASONS FOR THE FALL:

* He was drafted in the 3rd round by the NFL, as the 8th receiver off the board.

I tend to think that NFL scouting departments are pretty good at their job, so draft position is pretty important to me when making my rankings.
I don't understand this post.

 
Bucky86 said:
Adam Harstad said:
REASONS FOR THE FALL:

* He was drafted in the 3rd round by the NFL, as the 8th receiver off the board.

I tend to think that NFL scouting departments are pretty good at their job, so draft position is pretty important to me when making my rankings.
Worst argument ever. Scouts fail all the time.
Yes, scouts fail all the time. They've still got a better track record than anything else out there. To paraphrase Doug Drinen, trusting the scouts is the worst way to evaluate talent, except for all the other ways.

 
If the knee is still a concern than that is a seperate story. IMO this guy has the skill-set to do damage at this level. Good hands and can quickly put himself in open space. The more I see the more I like. Time will tell....I just brought him up because I am a believer and nobody seems to be talking about him.

 
Time Kibitzer said:
Bucky86 said:
Adam Harstad said:
REASONS FOR THE FALL:

* He was drafted in the 3rd round by the NFL, as the 8th receiver off the board.

I tend to think that NFL scouting departments are pretty good at their job, so draft position is pretty important to me when making my rankings.
Worst argument ever. Scouts fail all the time.
:goodposting:

Is his fall to the 3rd round of teh NFL draft cause for concern? Certainly. Is it reason enough to think he can't still be a great NFL WR? Absolutely not.
I never said that he couldn't be a great WR. Lots of late-round players become studs. Ochocinco and Terrell Owens and Steve Smiff all come easily to mind. Rod Smith was undrafted.

Is there any reason the 7 WRs drafted ahead of Allen can't still be great WRs? Absolutely not.

 
Bucky86 said:
Adam Harstad said:
REASONS FOR THE FALL:

* He was drafted in the 3rd round by the NFL, as the 8th receiver off the board.

I tend to think that NFL scouting departments are pretty good at their job, so draft position is pretty important to me when making my rankings.
Worst argument ever. Scouts fail all the time.
Yes, scouts fail all the time. They've still got a better track record than anything else out there. To paraphrase Doug Drinen, trusting the scouts is the worst way to evaluate talent, except for all the other ways.
I will take Keenan Allen and the Niners can have AJ Jenkins. Wait...that won't work..... My intention of this thread is not to statisticly prove that scouts are better at their job than most. Why do you have your own rankings? Why wouldn't you just copy what the NFL does year after year? There are plenty of FF contributors that come in later rounds. I think he is being overlooked....you apparently disagree and that is ok with me.

 
Adam Harstad said:
REASONS FOR THE FALL:

* He was drafted in the 3rd round by the NFL, as the 8th receiver off the board.

I tend to think that NFL scouting departments are pretty good at their job, so draft position is pretty important to me when making my rankings.
I don't understand this post.
A year ago, I was excited about Keenan Allen because I thought he'd be one of the first receivers off the board, possibly going in the first round. Today, I'm much less excited, because he was not, and he did not. Seven receivers were drafted before him. Guys like Austin, Patterson, Hopkins, Hunter, and Woods all went a full round ahead of him, so I'd clearly prefer them. Aaron Dobson was drafted a half-round earlier into a better situation, so I'd rather have him, although it's close.

I'm not saying I don't like him or wouldn't take him. I'm just saying that I need to have a pretty compelling reason to take a rookie drafted in the middle of the 3rd round over a rookie drafted at the top of the 2nd, and Allen has never given me that compelling reason.

 
Bucky86 said:
Adam Harstad said:
REASONS FOR THE FALL:

* He was drafted in the 3rd round by the NFL, as the 8th receiver off the board.

I tend to think that NFL scouting departments are pretty good at their job, so draft position is pretty important to me when making my rankings.
Worst argument ever. Scouts fail all the time.
Yes, scouts fail all the time. They've still got a better track record than anything else out there. To paraphrase Doug Drinen, trusting the scouts is the worst way to evaluate talent, except for all the other ways.
I will take Keenan Allen and the Niners can have AJ Jenkins. Wait...that won't work..... My intention of this thread is not to statisticly prove that scouts are better at their job than most. Why do you have your own rankings? Why wouldn't you just copy what the NFL does year after year? There are plenty of FF contributors that come in later rounds. I think he is being overlooked....you apparently disagree and that is ok with me.
If you're a subscriber, I wrote a 3-part series on my rookie ranking philosophy this offseason that explains where I'm coming from and why. I can link to it if you'd like. Anyway, you just said you'd be curious about other opinions, and I was telling you, my opinion of Allen fell when his draft stock fell. If he'd gone in the early 2nd, I'd be spending a 1st round pick on him all day long in dynasty leagues. Since he fell all the way to the mid-3rd, I view him more as a mid-2nd pick in rookie drafts.

 
Bucky86 said:
Adam Harstad said:
REASONS FOR THE FALL:

* He was drafted in the 3rd round by the NFL, as the 8th receiver off the board.

I tend to think that NFL scouting departments are pretty good at their job, so draft position is pretty important to me when making my rankings.
Worst argument ever. Scouts fail all the time.
Yes, scouts fail all the time. They've still got a better track record than anything else out there. To paraphrase Doug Drinen, trusting the scouts is the worst way to evaluate talent, except for all the other ways.
I will take Keenan Allen and the Niners can have AJ Jenkins. Wait...that won't work..... My intention of this thread is not to statisticly prove that scouts are better at their job than most. Why do you have your own rankings? Why wouldn't you just copy what the NFL does year after year? There are plenty of FF contributors that come in later rounds. I think he is being overlooked....you apparently disagree and that is ok with me.
If you're a subscriber, I wrote a 3-part series on my rookie ranking philosophy this offseason that explains where I'm coming from and why. I can link to it if you'd like. Anyway, you just said you'd be curious about other opinions, and I was telling you, my opinion of Allen fell when his draft stock fell. If he'd gone in the early 2nd, I'd be spending a 1st round pick on him all day long in dynasty leagues. Since he fell all the way to the mid-3rd, I view him more as a mid-2nd pick in rookie drafts.
Thank you but I am not interested in the 3 part series of your rookie philosphy. I appreciate your opinion but I am not talking about where he should be drafted I am just stating how I think he has quite a bit of talent and is being overlooked. The premise of my post stems from my own rookie draft (2 rounds - 12 teams - 18 roster spots) where he was undrafted. I was surprised to see him on the waiver after all the hype he had last year at this time. So I did some rookie research and am intrigued.

 
I recall the GM of the Chargers stating that he considered all of his first round picks to be first rounders and had them graded as such. Just saying.

 
Thank you but I am not interested in the 3 part series of your rookie philosphy. I appreciate your opinion but I am not talking about where he should be drafted I am just stating how I think he has quite a bit of talent and is being overlooked. The premise of my post stems from my own rookie draft (2 rounds - 12 teams - 18 roster spots) where he was undrafted. I was surprised to see him on the waiver after all the hype he had last year at this time. So I did some rookie research and am intrigued.
If Allen went undrafted, that's crazy. Dude was still a 3rd rounder. I've got him ranked 20th in my rookie rankings, and I'm actually the lowest staffer on him. I know it's a shallow league, but I would think Allen would at least have gotten a shot.

 
I recall the GM of the Chargers stating that he considered all of his first round picks to be first rounders and had them graded as such. Just saying.
The GM of the Chargers might have thought Allen was a 1st round pick, but the other 31 GMs clearly disagreed.

 
Thank you but I am not interested in the 3 part series of your rookie philosphy. I appreciate your opinion but I am not talking about where he should be drafted I am just stating how I think he has quite a bit of talent and is being overlooked. The premise of my post stems from my own rookie draft (2 rounds - 12 teams - 18 roster spots) where he was undrafted. I was surprised to see him on the waiver after all the hype he had last year at this time. So I did some rookie research and am intrigued.
If Allen went undrafted, that's crazy. Dude was still a 3rd rounder. I've got him ranked 20th in my rookie rankings, and I'm actually the lowest staffer on him. I know it's a shallow league, but I would think Allen would at least have gotten a shot.
Agreed, that is what sparked this. It is a shallow league and most owners take more immediate production over talent historically.

 
Thank you but I am not interested in the 3 part series of your rookie philosphy. I appreciate your opinion but I am not talking about where he should be drafted I am just stating how I think he has quite a bit of talent and is being overlooked. The premise of my post stems from my own rookie draft (2 rounds - 12 teams - 18 roster spots) where he was undrafted. I was surprised to see him on the waiver after all the hype he had last year at this time. So I did some rookie research and am intrigued.
If Allen went undrafted, that's crazy. Dude was still a 3rd rounder. I've got him ranked 20th in my rookie rankings, and I'm actually the lowest staffer on him. I know it's a shallow league, but I would think Allen would at least have gotten a shot.
Agreed, that is what sparked this. It is a shallow league and most owners take more immediate production over talent historically.
I take it no one ever rebuilds in this league.

 
Thank you but I am not interested in the 3 part series of your rookie philosphy. I appreciate your opinion but I am not talking about where he should be drafted I am just stating how I think he has quite a bit of talent and is being overlooked. The premise of my post stems from my own rookie draft (2 rounds - 12 teams - 18 roster spots) where he was undrafted. I was surprised to see him on the waiver after all the hype he had last year at this time. So I did some rookie research and am intrigued.
If Allen went undrafted, that's crazy. Dude was still a 3rd rounder. I've got him ranked 20th in my rookie rankings, and I'm actually the lowest staffer on him. I know it's a shallow league, but I would think Allen would at least have gotten a shot.
Agreed, that is what sparked this. It is a shallow league and most owners take more immediate production over talent historically.
I take it no one ever rebuilds in this league.
It is hard with only 18 roster spots (kicker & defense included) to be patient on a guy that could take time to develop. Most teams pass on long-term talent for short-term production to a certain degree.

 
I recall the GM of the Chargers stating that he considered all of his first round picks to be first rounders and had them graded as such. Just saying.
The GM of the Chargers might have thought Allen was a 1st round pick, but the other 31 GMs clearly disagreed.
Maybe and maybe not. Truth is we don't know their boards.
Well, we know that the NFL collectively liked 75 other players better, and we know that no one in the entire league felt any particular pressure to trade up for that 1st round talent who'd somehow found his way deep into the 3rd (although Dallas DID trade up for Terrance Williams two picks earlier).

 
MAC_32 said:
He fell in the draft because of his knee which was still bothering him in camp. Medical issues are a big red flag at this point, ten months after relatively minor injury.
Agree, I remember scouts even ESPN taunting him as the most "NFL ready" WR in the draft before last year the only thing that has changed since then is his injury.

 
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I'm in agreement with the OP. I think it's silly in Dynasty to downgrade him due to a lingering injury. Hopefully they'll rest him up and he'll come back strong late in the year.

 
I just did a search an found:

California WR Keenan Allen (knee) is considered to the most NFL-ready wide receiver available in the upcoming NFL Draft by one scout. "The most polished of the receivers, the most ready to play of all of them. He will be a pretty high pick, and he should be," the scout said Sunday, March 3.

2013-03-03 18:06:19 | Source: The Times of Trenton - Mark Eckel
http://www.kffl.com/gnews.php?id=842004-nfl---keenan-allen-considered-most-polished#ixzz2dmATQkyV'>Keenan Allen considered the most polished

The 2013 NFL draft is only two months away, and wide receiver Keenan Allen is one of the most NFL-ready prospects available. The former University of California product should be able to step in right away and contribute immediately for a team.

The Green Bay Packers hold the 26th pick of this year's draft. There are a number of needs that Green Bay could address with its first-round pick, but few would consider wide receiver one of those needs.

However, Allen, who Bleacher Report's own Matt Miller has ranked as the third-best receiver, makes perfect sense for Green Bay.

Let me tell you why.

For the past few seasons, the Packers have housed one of the best receiving corps in the NFL. With players like Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, Donald Driver, James Jones and Randall Cobb on the roster, it's easy to see why this team has been so successful through the air.

Not only would Allen be able to step in from the outset and produce, he has the ability to do so at an extremely high level. He has all the skills to be a legitimate No. 1 receiver in this league, and he could become that sooner rather than later.

Two areas of Allen's game that would really shine in the Packers' offense are his ability to catch the ball at its highest point and being able to make plays after the catch.
Another Link

Mike Mayock compares him to Anquan Boldin here: http://www.baltimoreravens.com/news/article-1/Mock-Draft-Spotlight-Keenan-Allen/0978b2eb-2bd2-4dbc-a70f-b88b90c68a49

8/17/12: Allen would be the first receiver selected in most draft classes. At the same time, he could easily make a run at being the top receiver even if Woods is in the same draft class. Allen had a very good debut in 2010. He caught 46 passes for 490 yards and five touchdowns as a freshman.
First receiver selected

There are more links but I don't think they are necessary.

 
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This is why my opinion doesn't change much between January and now, recency effect changes perception despite no games being played.

 
Bucky86 said:
Adam Harstad said:
REASONS FOR THE FALL:

* He was drafted in the 3rd round by the NFL, as the 8th receiver off the board.

I tend to think that NFL scouting departments are pretty good at their job, so draft position is pretty important to me when making my rankings.
Worst argument ever. Scouts fail all the time.
Personally, I dismiss all paid scouts and only believe what the chatboards tell me because they are never wrong.

 
I recall the GM of the Chargers stating that he considered all of his first round picks to be first rounders and had them graded as such. Just saying.
The GM of the Chargers might have thought Allen was a 1st round pick, but the other 31 GMs clearly disagreed.
Maybe and maybe not. Truth is we don't know their boards.
Well, we know that the NFL collectively liked 75 other players better, and we know that no one in the entire league felt any particular pressure to trade up for that 1st round talent who'd somehow found his way deep into the 3rd (although Dallas DID trade up for Terrance Williams two picks earlier).
WHat's you point?

 
From back when you couldn't swing a stick without hitting someone touting Allen as a first round pick.

Wrapping all of this up, there's nothing elite about Allen's profile other than his reputation and the fact that he did catch a lot of passes in a BCS conference. Unfortunately for his pro prospects, neither of those things is likely to help him in the NFL and neither of them is likely to keep his draft stock from falling as the services that talk to scouts and teams continue to get feedback on him.
Full pre-draft profile here.

 
I recall the GM of the Chargers stating that he considered all of his first round picks to be first rounders and had them graded as such. Just saying.
The GM of the Chargers might have thought Allen was a 1st round pick, but the other 31 GMs clearly disagreed.
Maybe and maybe not. Truth is we don't know their boards.
Well, we know that the NFL collectively liked 75 other players better, and we know that no one in the entire league felt any particular pressure to trade up for that 1st round talent who'd somehow found his way deep into the 3rd (although Dallas DID trade up for Terrance Williams two picks earlier).
I think the point is that any team that had three picks pass by the time KA went in the third, could conceivably have had him as high as #4 on their overall draft board.

Now, even though possible, that's so laughable as to be absurd. But could he not have been 10th instead of 4th? (Still laughable.) 20th? 30th? Isn't it entirely possible some team ranked their top 30, only to see as the rounds went by, that there were still guys remaining on their boards who were higher than they had KA? Thus pushing him down further despite that team's lofty ranking of him?

I don't see that as all that implausible, when you consider how many wacky selections we're treated to each year. Teams rank these players wildly differently, and when you see a guy who somebody thinks is a freaky talent, chances are some team's scouts think he's a steal late in the first, no matter how many other teams are down on him.

 
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I recall the GM of the Chargers stating that he considered all of his first round picks to be first rounders and had them graded as such. Just saying.
The GM of the Chargers might have thought Allen was a 1st round pick, but the other 31 GMs clearly disagreed.
Maybe and maybe not. Truth is we don't know their boards.
Well, we know that the NFL collectively liked 75 other players better, and we know that no one in the entire league felt any particular pressure to trade up for that 1st round talent who'd somehow found his way deep into the 3rd (although Dallas DID trade up for Terrance Williams two picks earlier).
I think the point is that any team that had three picks pass by the time KA went in the third, could conceivably have had him as high as #4 on their overall draft board.

Now, even though possible, that's so laughable as to be absurd. But could he not have been 10th instead of 4th? (Still laughable.) 20th? 30th? Isn't it entirely possible some team ranked their top 30, only to see as the rounds went by, that there were still guys remaining on their boards who were higher than they had KA? Thus pushing him down further despite that team's lofty ranking of him?

I don't see that as all that implausible, when you consider how many wacky selections we're treated to each year. Teams rank these players wildly differently, and when you see a guy who somebody thinks is a freaky talent, chances are some team's scouts think he's a steal late in the first, no matter how many other teams are down on him.
As I stated before the Chargers GM stated that he did in fact have Allen rated as a first round prospect.

Kind of reminds me the opposite of when Ted Thompson traded up to get Clay Matthews. He was not considered a first round talent by many. However Thompson had a really hard time passing him at 9 when they took Raji. Teams stack their board differently.

Now Allen did slide down the board. But opportunity has presented itself by who he went to and the injuries that the team has sustained since he was picked. Also his injuries are another 4 months along in healing. So I think he has a good shot at making an impact.

 
List of guys drafted around the same spot as K. Allen since 2010.

DeVier Posey

TJ Graham

Mohamed Sanu

TY Hilton

Austin Petis

Leonard Hankerson

Vincent Brown

Jerrel Jarnigan

Damien Williams

Brandon LaFell

Emanuel Sanders

Jordon Shipley

Eric Decker

Andre Roberts

Armanti Edwards

Taylor Price

Not too many diamonds in that rough. Just based on past history, it doesn't look good for Allen.

Ok. I now expect to see everyone post the 4 guys drafted in round 4 or later that turned into pro bowlers the last 10 years.

Could Allen explode? Sure. But you're not going to make a very good living in Vegas placing those bets.

 
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I recall the GM of the Chargers stating that he considered all of his first round picks to be first rounders and had them graded as such. Just saying.
The GM of the Chargers might have thought Allen was a 1st round pick, but the other 31 GMs clearly disagreed.
Maybe and maybe not. Truth is we don't know their boards.
Well, we know that the NFL collectively liked 75 other players better, and we know that no one in the entire league felt any particular pressure to trade up for that 1st round talent who'd somehow found his way deep into the 3rd (although Dallas DID trade up for Terrance Williams two picks earlier).
And Minnesota gave up a boat load to get Patterson at the end of RD 1. Likewise, Tennessee gave up a ton to get Hunter early in RD 2. Yet, some around here seem to think that Allen compares favorably to one, if not both of those two.

I've found that the Allen fans around here are quite fanatic. To each there own I guess. Maybe he'll be good...

 
List of guys drafted around the same spot as K. Allen since 2010.

DeVier Posey

TJ Graham

Mohamed Sanu

TY Hilton

Austin Petis

Leonard Hankerson

Vincent Brown

Jerrel Jarnigan

Damien Williams

Brandon LaFell

Emanuel Sanders

Jordon Shipley

Eric Decker

Andre Roberts

Armanti Edwards

Taylor Price

Not too many diamonds in that rough. Just based on past history, it doesn't look good for Allen.

Ok. I now expect to see everyone post the 4 guys drafted in round 4 or later that turned into pro bowlers the last 10 years.

Could Allen explode? Sure. But you're not going to make a very good living in Vegas placing those bets.
Doing a quick check of the top 20 WRs last season (PPR), I found that nearly half (9 of 20) were first-rounders. The same number (also 9 of 20) were drafted in the third round or later (to include Welker and Cruz, who both went undrafted).

While I think it would be foolish not to factor in draft position, it is not a definitive predictor. I still like Keenen Allen's prospects to become a productive NFL receiver. He has many of the intangibles you look for in a quality receiver: Allen is a student of the game, has good strength and athleticism, he was productive in college, and he reportedly has a strong work ethic. I have to think a significant factor in his fall in the draft was Allen's injury status and inability to workout at an optimal level for scouts.

While I do not project Allen to necessarily be an elite receiver, you have to like the opportunity in front of him. The Chargers' offense looks explosive, and while Eddie Royal looks like a world beater at the moment, will he continue? Floyd is sidelined with an injury and Vincent Brown has failed to make an impact thus far. The ingredients are there for Allen to distinguish himself right now, but I especially like his long-term prospects. I think Allen is a good buy-low dynasty prospect.

 
Floyd is sidelined with an injury and Vincent Brown has failed to make an impact thus far.
So Allen is Floyd' backup, right?

I thought there might be some discussion about this, if Floyd is out doesn't Allen pretty much become the guy with a chance to break out? As opposed to Vince Brown.

My impression is Floyd might be out for one week, but that injury seemed bad, any suggestion he might be out for longer?

 
Floyd is sidelined with an injury and Vincent Brown has failed to make an impact thus far.
So Allen is Floyd' backup, right?

I thought there might be some discussion about this, if Floyd is out doesn't Allen pretty much become the guy with a chance to break out? As opposed to Vince Brown.

My impression is Floyd might be out for one week, but that injury seemed bad, any suggestion he might be out for longer?
Brown is listed as Floyd's backup, and I suspect he will see the most increase in PT, Allen should also see the field more. I personally like Allen to be the guy who is more likely to break out, but some of that may depend on how long Floyd is sidelined. Floyd will miss the Week #3 game, but it is unclear how long he is expected to miss, at this point. Initially, the reports were very bad for Floyd, but it sounds as though things are not as bad as they first appeared.

 
Brown is pretty much on the field for all the plays already. His PT shouldn't change, his targets may. I wouldn't underestimate KA's ability though. He picked up right where Floyd left off and caught two big balls in the second half.

 
Brown is pretty much on the field for all the plays already. His PT shouldn't change, his targets may. I wouldn't underestimate KA's ability though. He picked up right where Floyd left off and caught two big balls in the second half.
Excellent distinction. I couldn't agree more.
 
Malcom Floyd likely out about a month. This is Keenan Allen's window to shine.

FOX Sports' Mike Garafolo reports Malcom Floyd's (neck) "rough estimate" on a timetable for return is a month.
Floyd is "taking it slow, for obvious reasons," per Garafolo. Floyd has a severe neck injury, and at age 32 isn't going to push it. His absence removes any semblance of a downfield threat from the Chargers' passing attack. Floyd can safely be dropped in fantasy leagues. Rookie Keenan Allen is his replacement, working in three-wide packages with Eddie Royal and Vincent Brown.

http://www.rotoworld.com/headlines/nfl/270285/Malcom-Floyd-expected-to-miss-one-month?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

 
Brown IMO is much more of a possession receiver than a deep threat. In the current Chargers offense, that is a GOOD thing. It's emphasizing short and intermediate routes.

 

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