[DYNASTY] Revised 2009 Rookie Rankings (1 Viewer)

[EBF]

I thought it might be time to update my rankings now that we've had a chance to see (most of) these guys in action. This list is still a work in progress.

1. RB Knowshon Moreno, DEN - Looked decent on a few carries vs. SF. Think he might be a bit overrated, but he still appears to be the safest RB in the draft class. One thing is clear: Jordan and Buckhalter won't run away with this job in his absence.

2. WR Michael Crabtree, SF - The diva act is getting tired. Needs to get signed. Talent can't be ignored despite rocky start. Has every skill needed to become a Boldin/Cotchery type possession WR if he stays focused and committed.

3. WR Percy Harvin, MIN - I liked him all along and the glowing training camp reports have further solidified his position in the top 3. Seems destined for an early impact and a meteoric rise up draft boards ala DeSean Jackson and Eddie Royal.

4. RB LeSean McCoy, PHI - One of the early risers. Looks quick and stronger than expected. I now believe he's going to take over when Westbrook retires. Could be the closest thing to Slaton in this class.

5. RB Shonn Greene, NYJ - Holding steady. I think he takes over for Thomas Jones in 2010 with Leon playing a supporting role.

6. RB Donald Brown, IND - Has showed some nice speed so far. Looks like a Felix Jones/Tiki Barber type. Still not sure whether he's a career committee back or a future workhorse. I think he's a fairly safe pick though.

7. RB Chris Wells, ARI - Huge upside and huge bust risk. Hard to assess him because he hasn't played.

8. WR Hakeem Nicks, NYG - Off to a sluggish start because of injuries. I still like him more than the remaining WRs.

9. QB Matt Stafford, DET - As you would expect with a rookie QB, it's been a mixed bag so far.

10. QB Mark Sanchez, NYJ - Seems to be progressing nicely. Very close call for QB1 between him and Stafford. Flip a coin.

11. WR Jeremy Maclin, PHI - I've been lukewarm on him all along and he hasn't shown me anything special yet.

12. WR Kenny Britt, TEN - Climbing slowly. Opportunity for early playing time is appealing. I have mixed feelings about his game.

13. WR Darrius Heyward-Bey, OAK - Speed is evident, but he's been otherwise invisible. Seems like a project.

14. WR Ramses Barden, NYG - Generating a lot of buzz in practices. Big target with sticky hands and great red zone potential. I still wonder if he can separate.

15. WR Brandon Tate, NE - Sitting out as he recovers from injury. Won't play this year. I like his long term potential.

16. QB Josh Freeman, TB - Eventual starter for the Bucs. I don't like where this organization is headed and I'm skeptical of his prospects.

17. TE Jared Cook, TEN - Impressing early. Great athlete in a friendly system for TEs.

18. RB Glen Coffee, SF - One of the early stars of the preseason. Flashed good instincts and decent mobility. Buyer beware though. Many of his long runs were the result of great blocking.

19. RB James Davis, CLE - Creeping up the rankings. Has some upside, but best viewed as a longshot.

20. RB Gartrell Johnson, SD - Fighting for a roster spot. I think he has the potential for a Mike Anderson type career.

OTHERS:

QB Stephen McGee, DAL - Good long term sleeper. I like him at his cost more than Freeman.

RB Javon Ringer, TEN - Bubbled the top 20. Moving up the boards with a strong preseason. Long term role is still cloudy.

RB Bernard Scott, CIN - Benson is mediocre, so maybe Scott will get an opportunity to play early.

RB Mike Goodson, CAR - Talented athlete with a cloudy future. Bit of a tweener and stuck behind two horses.

WR Mohamed Massaquoi, CLE - Outplaying Robiskie so far. Forgotten prospect who could be a nice sleeper.

WR Brian Robiskie, CLE - I've never liked his game. Cleveland is a black hole and Robiskie has failed to distinguish himself.

WR Patrick Turner, MIA - Fading a bit after early splash. Possession type with limited upside.

WR Deon Butler, SEA - Slot type who seemingly lacks upside.

WR Mike Wallace, PIT - Making waves with his elite speed. A bit one-dimensional. A poor man's Berrian?

WR Jarett Dillard, JAC - Quiet thus far.

WR Mike Thomas, JAC - Same story as Dillard.

 

[treat88]

Nice list EBF.

I think I'd move Cook up into the 13 range and Greene down into the 9 range, but no quibbles otherwise.

Love to see you to an IDP list along the same lines.

 

[EBF]

Nice list EBF.

I think I'd move Cook up into the 13 range and Greene down into the 9 range, but no quibbles otherwise.

Love to see you to an IDP list along the same lines.

The problem with Cook is that he plays TE. Even if he ends up being a top 10 player at his position, his trade value will be modest. A WR or RB with a lower probability of success is worth more because the upside is greater. I play in a few IDP leagues, but I don't follow the defensive players very closely.

 

[treat88]

Nice list EBF.

I think I'd move Cook up into the 13 range and Greene down into the 9 range, but no quibbles otherwise.

Love to see you to an IDP list along the same lines.

The problem with Cook is that he plays TE. Even if he ends up being a top 10 player at his position, his trade value will be modest. A WR or RB with a lower probability of success is worth more because the upside is greater. I play in a few IDP leagues, but I don't follow the defensive players very closely.

In the large majority of fantasy leagues you are obviously correct.I was looking at it in actual on field impact for their respective NFL franchises light, although Greene may surprise me.

Regardless, great insights. Thanks.

 

[Knobs]

What do you think of Nate Davis as a long term sleeper?

 

[jdoggydogg]

Where would you rank Jermichael Finley here?

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Where would you rank Jermichael Finley here?

?? he's not a rookie, but his upside has to be as good as cooks.

 

[jdoggydogg]

Where would you rank Jermichael Finley here?

?? he's not a rookie, but his upside has to be as good as cooks.

Whoops

 

[Knobs]

I see no mention of McKinley. With Marshall being a headcase, do you think McKinley will have a chance in the somewhat near future? By all accounts he's been a monster in camp...

 

[TheFanatic]

I'm not sold on Greene at all. Sure he has a 5.0 YPC in the preseason but that stat does not hold up to much scrutiny. First, all of those carries came against the Rams. Second, it was only 9 carries. Third, he had a nice 34 yard run, I know we can't really remove that from the stat line but his other 8 runs were less than mediocre.

He seemingly has more opportunity than say a McCoy or DBrown, but I don't really see that either. I see a guy that has to have TJones as well as Leon go down for him to get significant carries this year and probably have Leon go down next year to see anything more than RBBC numbers. I like his size as a starter but I'm just not sold on him yet.

 

[Northern Voice]

It seems like you don't have very high expectations for any of this year's WR's (this season, or long term). It makes me wonder if the buzz around Harvin this preseason is legit, or if he's simply the only appealing rookie WR out there (with Crabtree looking unlikely to sign any time soon).

 

[TheFanatic]

It seems like you don't have very high expectations for any of this year's WR's (this season, or long term). It makes me wonder if the buzz around Harvin this preseason is legit, or if he's simply the only appealing rookie WR out there (with Crabtree looking unlikely to sign any time soon).

Don't sleep on Britt...

 

[valhallan]

12. WR Kenny Britt, TEN - Climbing slowly. Opportunity for early playing time is appealing. I have mixed feelings about his game.

Can you expand? I know the body-catching is still a problem, but curious if you have other specific concerns.

 

[EBF]

What do you think of Nate Davis as a long term sleeper?

I don't have much to say about him. I only watched one of his games last season (bowl game) and it was a disastrous performance. I will try to take a look at him in the next 49ers game. I have only watched the first half in the first two games.

 

[EBF]

I see no mention of McKinley. With Marshall being a headcase, do you think McKinley will have a chance in the somewhat near future? By all accounts he's been a monster in camp...

He belongs in the conversation with guys like Wallace and Butler. I think he's a quality player who can help a team win. Does he have the extra something needed to be an NFL starter? I don't know.

 

[RockHard]

I thought it might be time to update my rankings now that we've had a chance to see (most of) these guys in action. This list is still a work in progress.

2. WR Michael Crabtree, SF - The diva act is getting tired. Needs to get signed. Talent can't be ignored despite rocky start. Has every skill needed to become a Boldin/Cotchery type possession WR if he stays focused and committed.

Would you really classify Cotchery as an elite talent?

 

[Knobs]

What do you think of Nate Davis as a long term sleeper?

I don't have much to say about him. I only watched one of his games last season (bowl game) and it was a disastrous performance. I will try to take a look at him in the next 49ers game. I have only watched the first half in the first two games.

 

[Knobs]

I see no mention of McKinley. With Marshall being a headcase, do you think McKinley will have a chance in the somewhat near future? By all accounts he's been a monster in camp...

He belongs in the conversation with guys like Wallace and Butler. I think he's a quality player who can help a team win. Does he have the extra something needed to be an NFL starter? I don't know.

Fair enough.Thanks for the rankings!

 

[EBF]

I'm not sold on Greene at all. Sure he has a 5.0 YPC in the preseason but that stat does not hold up to much scrutiny. First, all of those carries came against the Rams. Second, it was only 9 carries. Third, he had a nice 34 yard run, I know we can't really remove that from the stat line but his other 8 runs were less than mediocre. He seemingly has more opportunity than say a McCoy or DBrown, but I don't really see that either. I see a guy that has to have TJones as well as Leon go down for him to get significant carries this year and probably have Leon go down next year to see anything more than RBBC numbers. I like his size as a starter but I'm just not sold on him yet.

Greene is a polarizing player. I have always felt that his game would translate well to the NFL. The Jets have an ancient starter and they traded up to get Greene with the first pick in the third round, saying he was the top player on the board by far.To me this is an easy puzzle to put together. Jones is on borrowed time and Greene is the new regime's hand-picked choice to be his successor. Unless they're really disappointed with his play, I think it's only a matter of time before he's the primary ball carrier for this team. Leon Washington is a good player, but he has been a committee back his entire football career dating back to his days at Florida State sharing carries with Lorenzo Booker. He has played under several NFL coaching staffs and none of them have ever seen fit to make him a starter. I think he will be the Norwood to Greene's Turner.

 

[EBF]

I thought it might be time to update my rankings now that we've had a chance to see (most of) these guys in action. This list is still a work in progress.

2. WR Michael Crabtree, SF - The diva act is getting tired. Needs to get signed. Talent can't be ignored despite rocky start. Has every skill needed to become a Boldin/Cotchery type possession WR if he stays focused and committed.

Would you really classify Cotchery as an elite talent?

No. The comparison was made because they have a similar playing style.People often compare Crabtree to Calvin/Andre/Fitz when in reality he should be compared to Boldin/Bowe/Cotchery.

 

[Tau837]

Didn't see Peerman, Jennings, or Foster listed. Do you not consider any of them worthy of mention or was that an oversight?

 

[TheFanatic]

I'm not sold on Greene at all. Sure he has a 5.0 YPC in the preseason but that stat does not hold up to much scrutiny. First, all of those carries came against the Rams. Second, it was only 9 carries. Third, he had a nice 34 yard run, I know we can't really remove that from the stat line but his other 8 runs were less than mediocre. He seemingly has more opportunity than say a McCoy or DBrown, but I don't really see that either. I see a guy that has to have TJones as well as Leon go down for him to get significant carries this year and probably have Leon go down next year to see anything more than RBBC numbers. I like his size as a starter but I'm just not sold on him yet.

Greene is a polarizing player. I have always felt that his game would translate well to the NFL. The Jets have an ancient starter and they traded up to get Greene with the first pick in the third round, saying he was the top player on the board by far.To me this is an easy puzzle to put together. Jones is on borrowed time and Greene is the new regime's hand-picked choice to be his successor. Unless they're really disappointed with his play, I think it's only a matter of time before he's the primary ball carrier for this team. Leon Washington is a good player, but he has been a committee back his entire football career dating back to his days at Florida State sharing carries with Lorenzo Booker. He has played under several NFL coaching staffs and none of them have ever seen fit to make him a starter. I think he will be the Norwood to Greene's Turner.

I just posted this from a blog that Chase put a link to in another thread on the front page:

GM Mike Tannenbaum remembers the three straight runs from the goal line last year that ended with no points. That’s not going to happen with Greene. I expect Jones to lead the team in rushing, Greene in rushing TDs and Washington in receiving. So while I don’t love the trade up for Greene, it shows clarity on the part of the team — Ryan knows what he wants to do and what he needs to have to do what he wants. He wants three RBs and wanted a power runner, but he didn’t have that. Now he does. This isn’t about sending a message to Thomas Jones but about playing power football. Greene is a big back with great footwork; he’s not a good blocker and is definitely a 2-down back at this point, but he’s going to be grinding out the 4th quarter of games. A 39″ vertical leap with the weight he’s carrying shows the power he has in his legs. He also ran a faster 40 than Knowshon Moreno. Here is how I project the Jets RBs to perform this year, barring injury:Jones: 280 carries, 1200 yards, 6 TDs; 30 rec, 200 yards, 1 TD (182 fantasy points)Washington: 110 carries, 500 yards, 4 TD; 50 rec, 400 yards, 2 TD (126 FP);Greene: 110 carries, 400 yards, 8 TDs; 5 rec, 30 yards, 0 TD (91 FP)Total: 500 carries, 2100 yards, 18 TDs; 85 receptions, 625 yards, 3 TD

This makes much more sense to me than Greene being the heir apparent to TJones, although I don't see Jones getting 280 carries. More like 250 as a max with the other two getting more of the pie...

 

[comfortably numb]

What players have taken the biggest jump and fall since the conclusion of the NFL Draft?

 

[EBF]

It seems like you don't have very high expectations for any of this year's WR's (this season, or long term). It makes me wonder if the buzz around Harvin this preseason is legit, or if he's simply the only appealing rookie WR out there (with Crabtree looking unlikely to sign any time soon).

I wouldn't say I'm down on this WR class as a whole. You have to remember that the odds of any WR drafted in the first round becoming a solid player are something like 35-40%. So that means with 6 WRs picked in the first round we can expect 2-4 of them to become solid players if this year aligns with historical trends. Harvin, Crabtree, and Nicks are the guys I'm most optimistic about. Maclin, DHB, and Britt look more dangerous. All of them are ranked inside my top 13. Where this year falls a little short is the second tier. Typically there are some attractive options picked in rounds 2-4. I think that group is a little weak this year. Massaquoi, Tate, and Barden are probably the most appealing and I wouldn't say any of them are locks to succeed. You also have to bear in mind that RBs generally carry more trade value in FF leagues than WRs. So while I might like Hakeem Nicks more than Beanie Wells, I know that Wells will be MUCH more valuable a year from now if he shows ANYTHING as a rookie. I had to factor that into my rankings.

 

[EBF]

Didn't see Peerman, Jennings, or Foster listed. Do you not consider any of them worthy of mention or was that an oversight?

I think they're all longshots. Peerman is the most interesting to me because of his physical skill set. It's hard to see how he's going to emerge in that crowded backfield, but he's someone I would monitor closely in the remaining preseason games.I have never been a fan of Jennings. I don't think he's any better than Chauncey Washington or any other typical late round RB.Fear & Loathing has been touting Foster a little bit, but he's not someone I was optimistic about going into the preseason. He looked too sluggish for the NFL game when he was in college.

 

[EBF]

I'm not sold on Greene at all. Sure he has a 5.0 YPC in the preseason but that stat does not hold up to much scrutiny. First, all of those carries came against the Rams. Second, it was only 9 carries. Third, he had a nice 34 yard run, I know we can't really remove that from the stat line but his other 8 runs were less than mediocre. He seemingly has more opportunity than say a McCoy or DBrown, but I don't really see that either. I see a guy that has to have TJones as well as Leon go down for him to get significant carries this year and probably have Leon go down next year to see anything more than RBBC numbers. I like his size as a starter but I'm just not sold on him yet.

Greene is a polarizing player. I have always felt that his game would translate well to the NFL. The Jets have an ancient starter and they traded up to get Greene with the first pick in the third round, saying he was the top player on the board by far.To me this is an easy puzzle to put together. Jones is on borrowed time and Greene is the new regime's hand-picked choice to be his successor. Unless they're really disappointed with his play, I think it's only a matter of time before he's the primary ball carrier for this team. Leon Washington is a good player, but he has been a committee back his entire football career dating back to his days at Florida State sharing carries with Lorenzo Booker. He has played under several NFL coaching staffs and none of them have ever seen fit to make him a starter. I think he will be the Norwood to Greene's Turner.

I just posted this from a blog that Chase put a link to in another thread on the front page:

GM Mike Tannenbaum remembers the three straight runs from the goal line last year that ended with no points. That’s not going to happen with Greene. I expect Jones to lead the team in rushing, Greene in rushing TDs and Washington in receiving. So while I don’t love the trade up for Greene, it shows clarity on the part of the team — Ryan knows what he wants to do and what he needs to have to do what he wants. He wants three RBs and wanted a power runner, but he didn’t have that. Now he does. This isn’t about sending a message to Thomas Jones but about playing power football. Greene is a big back with great footwork; he’s not a good blocker and is definitely a 2-down back at this point, but he’s going to be grinding out the 4th quarter of games. A 39″ vertical leap with the weight he’s carrying shows the power he has in his legs. He also ran a faster 40 than Knowshon Moreno. Here is how I project the Jets RBs to perform this year, barring injury:Jones: 280 carries, 1200 yards, 6 TDs; 30 rec, 200 yards, 1 TD (182 fantasy points)Washington: 110 carries, 500 yards, 4 TD; 50 rec, 400 yards, 2 TD (126 FP);Greene: 110 carries, 400 yards, 8 TDs; 5 rec, 30 yards, 0 TD (91 FP)Total: 500 carries, 2100 yards, 18 TDs; 85 receptions, 625 yards, 3 TD

This makes much more sense to me than Greene being the heir apparent to TJones, although I don't see Jones getting 280 carries. More like 250 as a max with the other two getting more of the pie...

Someone has to take over for Jones and Greene is the most obvious candidate.

 

[EBF]

What players have taken the biggest jump and fall since the conclusion of the NFL Draft?

I think Crabtree and Moreno have slipped a little bit by virture of their absence. You're practically obligated to take them in the top 2 because of their status as the clear top players in the draft at their respective positions, but neither is a can't-miss star like Calvin or ADP. The other prospects are nipping at their heels. The biggest climber is probably LeSean McCoy. I had my doubts about him during the draft process, but I think he was nitpicked to death just like Steve Slaton was last year. He's a dynamic runner who carried a weak offense on his back last season in college. He looks fully capable of replacing Brian Westbrook and I think he could prove to be a great pick.Ramses Barden and Jared Cook have made significant moves up the charts. I think Javon Ringer, Glen Coffee, and James Davis have shown that they might be able to play in this league (although I think we're a long way from assuming that they're future starters).As for the tumblers, I think it's been a bad offseason for Beanie Wells. The starting job is ripe for the taking and he's letting it slip through his fingers. He has done nothing to shed the "soft" label. It's way too early to bury him in dynasty leagues, but you'd like to see him out there competing. I think Brian Robiskie is also slipping. He was the consensus WR7 in most rookie drafts and he hasn't lived up to that billing yet.

 

[EBF]

12. WR Kenny Britt, TEN - Climbing slowly. Opportunity for early playing time is appealing. I have mixed feelings about his game.

Can you expand? I know the body-catching is still a problem, but curious if you have other specific concerns.

With big guys, you always have to worry about separation. Britt moves pretty well for his size, but I wouldn't describe him as fast or explosive. That's probably my biggest concern along with the spotty hands. That said, the early reports seem positive and he's threatening to leapfrog Maclin for that WR4 spot. The best thing about Britt is the wide open Tennessee WR situation. He could be the top option there in the near future.

 

[TheFanatic]

I'm not sold on Greene at all. Sure he has a 5.0 YPC in the preseason but that stat does not hold up to much scrutiny. First, all of those carries came against the Rams. Second, it was only 9 carries. Third, he had a nice 34 yard run, I know we can't really remove that from the stat line but his other 8 runs were less than mediocre. He seemingly has more opportunity than say a McCoy or DBrown, but I don't really see that either. I see a guy that has to have TJones as well as Leon go down for him to get significant carries this year and probably have Leon go down next year to see anything more than RBBC numbers. I like his size as a starter but I'm just not sold on him yet.

Greene is a polarizing player. I have always felt that his game would translate well to the NFL. The Jets have an ancient starter and they traded up to get Greene with the first pick in the third round, saying he was the top player on the board by far.To me this is an easy puzzle to put together. Jones is on borrowed time and Greene is the new regime's hand-picked choice to be his successor. Unless they're really disappointed with his play, I think it's only a matter of time before he's the primary ball carrier for this team. Leon Washington is a good player, but he has been a committee back his entire football career dating back to his days at Florida State sharing carries with Lorenzo Booker. He has played under several NFL coaching staffs and none of them have ever seen fit to make him a starter. I think he will be the Norwood to Greene's Turner.

I just posted this from a blog that Chase put a link to in another thread on the front page:

GM Mike Tannenbaum remembers the three straight runs from the goal line last year that ended with no points. That’s not going to happen with Greene. I expect Jones to lead the team in rushing, Greene in rushing TDs and Washington in receiving. So while I don’t love the trade up for Greene, it shows clarity on the part of the team — Ryan knows what he wants to do and what he needs to have to do what he wants. He wants three RBs and wanted a power runner, but he didn’t have that. Now he does. This isn’t about sending a message to Thomas Jones but about playing power football. Greene is a big back with great footwork; he’s not a good blocker and is definitely a 2-down back at this point, but he’s going to be grinding out the 4th quarter of games. A 39″ vertical leap with the weight he’s carrying shows the power he has in his legs. He also ran a faster 40 than Knowshon Moreno. Here is how I project the Jets RBs to perform this year, barring injury:Jones: 280 carries, 1200 yards, 6 TDs; 30 rec, 200 yards, 1 TD (182 fantasy points)Washington: 110 carries, 500 yards, 4 TD; 50 rec, 400 yards, 2 TD (126 FP);Greene: 110 carries, 400 yards, 8 TDs; 5 rec, 30 yards, 0 TD (91 FP)Total: 500 carries, 2100 yards, 18 TDs; 85 receptions, 625 yards, 3 TD

This makes much more sense to me than Greene being the heir apparent to TJones, although I don't see Jones getting 280 carries. More like 250 as a max with the other two getting more of the pie...

Someone has to take over for Jones and Greene is the most obvious candidate.

I desagree. I would argue that it is just as likely that someone not on the roster today could take over for TJones in 2010. Greene never playing a down in the NFL does not grant him dibs on TJ's spot in 2010. Particularly if the coaching staff see the two as two different kind of runners in a system that utilizes both skill sets...

 

[RockHard]

12. WR Kenny Britt, TEN - Climbing slowly. Opportunity for early playing time is appealing. I have mixed feelings about his game.

Can you expand? I know the body-catching is still a problem, but curious if you have other specific concerns.

With big guys, you always have to worry about separation. Britt moves pretty well for his size, but I wouldn't describe him as fast or explosive. That's probably my biggest concern along with the spotty hands. That said, the early reports seem positive and he's threatening to leapfrog Maclin for that WR4 spot. The best thing about Britt is the wide open Tennessee WR situation. He could be the top option there in the near future.

Britt is faster (4.56 vs. 4.63) and slightly more exposive (37.0 vs. 36.0) than Nicks. Cant the same argument be used against him.

 

[Multiple Scores]

WR Mohamed Massaquoi, CLE - Outplaying Robiskie so far. Forgotten prospect who could be a nice sleeper.

5 rookie drafts, all on my team, earliest I had to take him was 4.2. Good list, pretty much agree with most everything except not a fan of McCoy, his pro day numbers were horrible and I am superstitious.

 

[lyon812]

12. WR Kenny Britt, TEN - Climbing slowly. Opportunity for early playing time is appealing. I have mixed feelings about his game.

Can you expand? I know the body-catching is still a problem, but curious if you have other specific concerns.

As a Britt owner and touter, I've been trying to keep up with Titans camp reports. Titans 1-2-3 WR seem solidly to be Gage, Washington, Britt. Regarding bodycatching: The pre-draft scouting report said, "Displayed very inconsistent hands during his career due to poor concentration and hand strength, leading to body-catching too many passes".

Here's a quote that stood out: "Kenny Britt is bigger than I expected, caught the ball with his hands like a natural (this is much less common in rookies than most people think) and he got off the jam with ease thanks to good technique and tremendous arm strength"

http://www.musiccitymiracles.com/2009/8/12...s-training-camp

I usually consider bodycatchers to lack either reaction speed, desire/fight, or concentration. Thus, I'm optimistic that if he can improve his focus/concentration--as he seems to have done so far--that the bodycatching won't be as much of a factor.

I was also encouraged on one preseason pass by VY last week where Britt had a step on a defender and VY horribly underthrew it. Britt went up and reached back for the ball, and almost made a great snag--his hands were about to clutch it--but the defender reached up and swatted it away at the last second. If he can keep that kind of focus and drive, I think it bodes well for his future.

 

[CravenM]

Dude, your avatar is evil.I thought there was yet another fly in my house

 

[EBF]

12. WR Kenny Britt, TEN - Climbing slowly. Opportunity for early playing time is appealing. I have mixed feelings about his game.

Can you expand? I know the body-catching is still a problem, but curious if you have other specific concerns.

With big guys, you always have to worry about separation. Britt moves pretty well for his size, but I wouldn't describe him as fast or explosive. That's probably my biggest concern along with the spotty hands. That said, the early reports seem positive and he's threatening to leapfrog Maclin for that WR4 spot. The best thing about Britt is the wide open Tennessee WR situation. He could be the top option there in the near future.

Britt is faster (4.56 vs. 4.63) and slightly more exposive (37.0 vs. 36.0) than Nicks. Cant the same argument be used against him.

There's a big difference between stopwatch speed and quickness. Boldin is a shining example of someone who's quick despite being slow. Nicks is more compact and shiftier than Britt. Britt is more of a long strider.

 

[loose circuits]

throw the stop watches out the windows, these guys are on NFL fields now.

Thanks for sharing your opinion, it's good for discussion.

I think you are way too low on Deon Butler. Guy is a Branch or Burleson injury away from significant playing time. You say you value a player how they will be tradable in a year with RB's, but you have Brandon Tate light years ahead of him. Tate didn't even get drafted in my recent rookie draft. Not sure I understand that one. If anything, Butler deserves to be ahead of a lot of those guys cause he's gonna see the field (what are the odds those guys can stay healthy and/or perform to expectatons). With Edelman tearing it up, Tate may find a tough time making any type of impact this year. His value is only going to decrease

Leon is going to be more than support for Greene in 2010. Brown likely won't have Addai to share carries with in 2010

 

[EBF]

I think you are way too low on Deon Butler. Guy is a Branch or Burleson injury away from significant playing time. You say you value a player how they will be tradable in a year with RB's, but you have Brandon Tate light years ahead of him.

I didn't say I value player based on their early trade value. It's a factor, especially with RBs. Any RB who shows any promise as a rookie will be massively overvalued the following year, which is something you have to account for when you're deciding between someone like Nicks and Wells. That doesn't mean I value players solely based on the initial year. These are dynasty rankings.I don't see any upside with Deon Butler. I think he's closer to Antwaan Randle El than he is to Eddie Royal. A guy who works the slot and catches 40-50 balls per season for 800 yards and 5 TDs is functionally worthless in most FF leagues.

Leon is going to be more than support for Greene in 2010. Brown likely won't have Addai to share carries with in 2010

Leon will be a factor. Greene should still get plenty of opportunities to score. RBBC hasn't stopped guys like Jacobs, Barber, and White from putting up top 20 seasons. I don't think it will stop Greene. As for Brown, I think that depends on how much faith the organization has in his ability to be the lone back. Right now it's premature to assume that he'll be handed the reigns. Addai is still young and they might want to keep him around (or bring in someone else).

 

[lyon812]

12. WR Kenny Britt, TEN - Climbing slowly. Opportunity for early playing time is appealing. I have mixed feelings about his game.

Can you expand? I know the body-catching is still a problem, but curious if you have other specific concerns.

With big guys, you always have to worry about separation. Britt moves pretty well for his size, but I wouldn't describe him as fast or explosive. That's probably my biggest concern along with the spotty hands. That said, the early reports seem positive and he's threatening to leapfrog Maclin for that WR4 spot. The best thing about Britt is the wide open Tennessee WR situation. He could be the top option there in the near future.

Britt is faster (4.56 vs. 4.63) and slightly more exposive (37.0 vs. 36.0) than Nicks. Cant the same argument be used against him.

There's a big difference between stopwatch speed and quickness. Boldin is a shining example of someone who's quick despite being slow. Nicks is more compact and shiftier than Britt. Britt is more of a long strider.

Could you clarify what you mean by long strider? The NFL.com draft profile lists him as having quick feet and reaching top speed quickly. Wouldn't long striders have neither, or am I misunderstanding?http://www.nfl.com/draft/2009/profiles/ken...layers-analysis

Analysis

Positives: Tall with a long frame. Lines up in the slot and outside. Surprisingly quick feet in and out of cuts. Good route-runner who finds seams against the zone. Reaches top speed quickly. Latches onto cornerbacks in run blocking. Strong runner after the catch, willing to bowl over corners and safeties to gain additional yards. Adjusts to low balls well. Makes most of his plays on crossing routes and is willing to give it up over the middle. Uses his body to shield defenders from the ball. Gives good effort blocking, using his long arms and feet to stay in front of a corner.

 

[loose circuits]

I think you are way too low on Deon Butler. Guy is a Branch or Burleson injury away from significant playing time. You say you value a player how they will be tradable in a year with RB's, but you have Brandon Tate light years ahead of him.

I didn't say I value player based on their early trade value. It's a factor, especially with RBs. Any RB who shows any promise as a rookie will be massively overvalued the following year, which is something you have to account for when you're deciding between someone like Nicks and Wells. That doesn't mean I value players solely based on the initial year. These are dynasty rankings.I don't see any upside with Deon Butler. I think he's closer to Antwaan Randle El than he is to Eddie Royal. A guy who works the slot and catches 40-50 balls per season for 800 yards and 5 TDs is functionally worthless in most FF leagues.

Leon is going to be more than support for Greene in 2010. Brown likely won't have Addai to share carries with in 2010

Leon will be a factor. Greene should still get plenty of opportunities to score. RBBC hasn't stopped guys like Jacobs, Barber, and White from putting up top 20 seasons. I don't think it will stop Greene. As for Brown, I think that depends on how much faith the organization has in his ability to be the lone back. Right now it's premature to assume that he'll be handed the reigns. Addai is still young and they might want to keep him around (or bring in someone else).

oh that only works for RB's, it doesn't work for WR's? How many leagues was Earl Bennett dropped in?

 

[az_prof]

EBF: I was surprised how low you ranked Donald Brown because I recall you saying last year that two of the Combine skills you look at carefully are the vertical jump and the broad jump. I seem to remember you saying that they are good indications of leg strength and push. Brown had an amazing vertical leap of 41.5 (the best) and a very good broad jump of 10'5''. Now I know you have reevaluated the importance of measurable skills, but when you put his performance at the Combine along with his college production, and now with his preseason performance, I just don't see how this guy cannot be a top 3 rookie pick. I took him over Wells myself partly because I think he is as good of a runner and athlete, but he has a superior character and he has proven he carry the ball a ton without wearing down.

 

[kremenull]

Very nice, compact analysis with some strong, well-spoken evaluation. I don't necessarily agree with all ranks, but nothing out of the ordinary. But one comparison that I just don't see is when you remarked that Donald Brown "Looks like a Felix Jones/Tiki Barber type". Well, I think Felix and Tiki aren't similar RBs in style nor stature. Felix is packing roughly 220 lbs. now (listed at 218, and from what I've seen the listing seems very legit) and has an extra gear that neither Tiki nor Donald Brown can kick into. Maybe the Tiki part is more plausible, but Felix has special physical talent, IMO. Good analysis though, you're pushing me to look a little bit more at Shonn Greene..........Just a little....

 

[kremenull]

I'm not sold on Greene at all. Sure he has a 5.0 YPC in the preseason but that stat does not hold up to much scrutiny. First, all of those carries came against the Rams. Second, it was only 9 carries. Third, he had a nice 34 yard run, I know we can't really remove that from the stat line but his other 8 runs were less than mediocre.

He seemingly has more opportunity than say a McCoy or DBrown, but I don't really see that either. I see a guy that has to have TJones as well as Leon go down for him to get significant carries this year and probably have Leon go down next year to see anything more than RBBC numbers. I like his size as a starter but I'm just not sold on him yet.

Greene is a polarizing player. I have always felt that his game would translate well to the NFL. The Jets have an ancient starter and they traded up to get Greene with the first pick in the third round, saying he was the top player on the board by far.To me this is an easy puzzle to put together. Jones is on borrowed time and Greene is the new regime's hand-picked choice to be his successor. Unless they're really disappointed with his play, I think it's only a matter of time before he's the primary ball carrier for this team.

Leon Washington is a good player, but he has been a committee back his entire football career dating back to his days at Florida State sharing carries with Lorenzo Booker. He has played under several NFL coaching staffs and none of them have ever seen fit to make him a starter. I think he will be the Norwood to Greene's Turner.

I'm not so sure that you give between $5-$6M per annum to a career backup. If the Jets finalize the contract extension for LW in this range, then I'd think that they just may have some Tiki/Westbrook type of plans for this guy. I saw this guy up close and personal vs. the Raiders last year and came away very impressed. He runs a lot tougher than most give him credit for and I believe he can handle a full-time gig ala Westy and Tiki did as they got a little more seasoned. Remember, Jacobs only complimented Tiki who was the feature RB, Jacobs only became the feature once Tiki left. Could easily see the same situation happening here with the Jets, LW the feature and Greene the compliment.

 

[EBF]

EBF: I was surprised how low you ranked Donald Brown because I recall you saying last year that two of the Combine skills you look at carefully are the vertical jump and the broad jump. I seem to remember you saying that they are good indications of leg strength and push. Brown had an amazing vertical leap of 41.5 (the best) and a very good broad jump of 10'5''. Now I know you have reevaluated the importance of measurable skills, but when you put his performance at the Combine along with his college production, and now with his preseason performance, I just don't see how this guy cannot be a top 3 rookie pick. I took him over Wells myself partly because I think he is as good of a runner and athlete, but he has a superior character and he has proven he carry the ball a ton without wearing down.

Combine numbers are only part of the puzzle. I like what Brown did in his workouts, but I think there are other backs in this class who stood out more on the field. I still have him ranked pretty high and I think he's a safe pick to become a quality player.

 

[EBF]

Very nice, compact analysis with some strong, well-spoken evaluation. I don't necessarily agree with all ranks, but nothing out of the ordinary. But one comparison that I just don't see is when you remarked that Donald Brown "Looks like a Felix Jones/Tiki Barber type". Well, I think Felix and Tiki aren't similar RBs in style nor stature. Felix is packing roughly 220 lbs. now (listed at 218, and from what I've seen the listing seems very legit) and has an extra gear that neither Tiki nor Donald Brown can kick into. Maybe the Tiki part is more plausible, but Felix has special physical talent, IMO. Good analysis though, you're pushing me to look a little bit more at Shonn Greene..........Just a little....

I'm high on Felix too, but last year he was a "lightning" style committee back. I could see Brown pigeonholed into a similar role.And FWIW, Tiki was pretty darn good.

 

[kremenull]

Very nice, compact analysis with some strong, well-spoken evaluation. I don't necessarily agree with all ranks, but nothing out of the ordinary. But one comparison that I just don't see is when you remarked that Donald Brown "Looks like a Felix Jones/Tiki Barber type". Well, I think Felix and Tiki aren't similar RBs in style nor stature. Felix is packing roughly 220 lbs. now (listed at 218, and from what I've seen the listing seems very legit) and has an extra gear that neither Tiki nor Donald Brown can kick into. Maybe the Tiki part is more plausible, but Felix has special physical talent, IMO. Good analysis though, you're pushing me to look a little bit more at Shonn Greene..........Just a little....

I'm high on Felix too, but last year he was a "lightning" style committee back. I could see Brown pigeonholed into a similar role.And FWIW, Tiki was pretty darn good.

I'm not saying that Tiki wasn't good, of course he was very good. I'm talking about style, and Felix (2009 version) and Tiki aren't similar runners. IMO, Tiki and Brown compare, ala a Thurman Thomas style player. but I can see your point if you simply mean a "lightning" RBBC parner for Felix last year, just the role comparison.

 

[new-guru]

bump

 

[SierraKiloBravo]

.

 

[TheFanatic]

throw the stop watches out the windows, these guys are on NFL fields now.

Thanks for sharing your opinion, it's good for discussion.

I think you are way too low on Deon Butler. Guy is a Branch or Burleson injury away from significant playing time. You say you value a player how they will be tradable in a year with RB's, but you have Brandon Tate light years ahead of him. Tate didn't even get drafted in my recent rookie draft. Not sure I understand that one. If anything, Butler deserves to be ahead of a lot of those guys cause he's gonna see the field (what are the odds those guys can stay healthy and/or perform to expectatons). With Edelman tearing it up, Tate may find a tough time making any type of impact this year. His value is only going to decrease

Leon is going to be more than support for Greene in 2010. Brown likely won't have Addai to share carries with in 2010

Do you really think that Butler is only an injury away from significant playing time? Branch is great in the post season but he's never had 1K yards and never more than 5 TD's in a season. His highest YPC was in his second season at 14.1 and he's never started 16 games in his career. Burleson has had slightly better regular season numbers and very similar numbers in terms of missed games. Even if these guys are healthy, a big if, Butler could see significant playing time.

Opportunity is huge in the NFL and FFB. Forte had a ton of opportunity despite only having a 3.9 YPC. Kevin Jones is looking good in camp. If Forte doesn't improve his YPC Kevin is going to get more touches. Please don't jump on me and say I'm predicting that KJ will take over. I'm not. But the coaching staff will likely shift more carries to KJ is Forte struggles. Look at the New Orleans running game. Bush gets a ton of opportunities and puts up good fantasy numbers despite sub par YPC and YPR compared to others. He goes down and Thomas puts up great number because he got the opportunity. LaRon McClain last year in Baltimore. I can go on and on.

I am in a deep pure keeper league (Hyper Active 1), and after the first round of the rookie draft I like to target WR's taken in the late first, second and early third in the NFL draft. Those guys are crap shoots at best. Particularly as rookies. I try to focus on the guys that have the best chance to get on the field early. Last year it was Royal. I didn't see anyone behind MArshall that would give him much competition. And while that was a great success, I also took Dexter Jackson from TB. He was not so successful but who knew AB would go off like he did? I had him on my roster just in case though so it turned out alright.

This year I looked at Britt. I like Gage as a WR2 in the NFL, but he should not be considered WR1 material and Washington? Not sure he is even a WR3 in the NFL. Sure, they are a run first team but with Gage and Washington, what else could they be? I love that he worked with Rod Smith all offseason and I spect him to hit the ground running over guys that didn't work one on one with a former probowler.

I also took Butler. Housh and Carlson are really nice options but I don't see much beyond that and Housh is no spring chicken. Butler could be groomed for a couple of years and be a nice WR. My biggest concern there is how long Hass can play. A change in QB in his early years could be really bad for Butler's ascension.

I grabbed the Massaquie (sp) kid in Cleveland. Wanted Robiskie but he was snagged ahead of me. Winslow gone, Edwards is likely gone after this season. Who does that leave? Even if Robiskie turns into the WR1 there, who plays WR2?

I also grabbed Johnny Knox in Chicago. Inglesias is the sexier pick but, again, he was snagged ahead of me. The guys ahead of them on the roster are not all that good. Someone will emerge there, and odds are against knox but I have a ticket in that lottery and if my number comes in I'm cashing in big.

Another guy I like but did not draft was Nicks. Dixon? Steve Smith? Both have potential but is their potential any higher than Nicks?

 

[Northern Voice]

I'm having a hard time justifying McCoy ahead of Brown/Wells. Westbrook is so much better than the competition these three other guys face. Addai and Hightower could both be out of the picture, leaving Brown/Wells as undisputed featured backs in their respective cities by week 5. Westbrook will be around at least this year and next IMO. Brown and Wells were both first rounders as well, we know the fans will be calling for them the first bad game Addai/Hightower have, whereas McCoy really needs an injury to see significant time.

I know there's more to it than this but I'm not sure I understand the case for McCoy.

 

[switz]

Very nice, compact analysis with some strong, well-spoken evaluation. I don't necessarily agree with all ranks, but nothing out of the ordinary. But one comparison that I just don't see is when you remarked that Donald Brown "Looks like a Felix Jones/Tiki Barber type". Well, I think Felix and Tiki aren't similar RBs in style nor stature. Felix is packing roughly 220 lbs. now (listed at 218, and from what I've seen the listing seems very legit) and has an extra gear that neither Tiki nor Donald Brown can kick into. Maybe the Tiki part is more plausible, but Felix has special physical talent, IMO. Good analysis though, you're pushing me to look a little bit more at Shonn Greene..........Just a little....

There couldn't be more of an inaccurate comparison ever... Brown is a grinder, Jones is exciting.It's like comparing TJ Duckett with Tony Dorsett, because they have the same initials... crazy!

 

[switz]

Very nice, compact analysis with some strong, well-spoken evaluation. I don't necessarily agree with all ranks, but nothing out of the ordinary. But one comparison that I just don't see is when you remarked that Donald Brown "Looks like a Felix Jones/Tiki Barber type". Well, I think Felix and Tiki aren't similar RBs in style nor stature. Felix is packing roughly 220 lbs. now (listed at 218, and from what I've seen the listing seems very legit) and has an extra gear that neither Tiki nor Donald Brown can kick into. Maybe the Tiki part is more plausible, but Felix has special physical talent, IMO. Good analysis though, you're pushing me to look a little bit more at Shonn Greene..........Just a little....

I'm high on Felix too, but last year he was a "lightning" style committee back. I could see Brown pigeonholed into a similar role.And FWIW, Tiki was pretty darn good.

Similar role is not the same thing as similar back. I agree that Brown will likely be a role player for the Colts, and that Addai will see a clear majority of touches.If you think Felix will be in the same role this year, I think you're in for a surprise though.